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spk00: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the MAA third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listening mode. Afterward, the company will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, October 26, 2023. I will now turn the call over to Adam Schaefer, Senior Vice President, Treasurer, and Director of Capital Markets of MAA for opening comments.
spk01: Thank you, Brittany, and good morning, everyone. This is Andrew Schaefer, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets for MAA. Members of the management team also participating on the call with me this morning are Eric Bolton, Tim Argo, Al Campbell, Rob DelFrori, Joe Fracchia, Brad Hill, and Clay Holder. Before we begin with our prepared comments this morning, I want to point out that as part of this discussion, company management will be making forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from our projection. we encourage you to refer to the forward-looking statement section in yesterday's earnings release and our 34-act filings with the SEC, which describe risk factors that may impact future results. During this call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, as well as reconciliations of the differences between non-GAAP and comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and supplemental financial data. Our earnings release and supplement are currently available on the For Investors page of our website at www.maac.com. A copy of our prepared comments and audio recording of this call will also be available on our website later today. After some brief prepared comments, the management team will be available to answer questions. I will now turn the call over to Eric.
spk02: Thanks, Andrew, and good morning. MAA's third quarter FFO performance was ahead of our expectations as the demand side of our business continues to capture good leasing traffic, low resident turnover, positive migration trends, and strong collections performance. During the quarter, we did see a higher impact from new supply deliveries across several of our larger markets, with the resulting impact showing up in pricing associated with new move-in residents. While we continue to believe that MAA's unique market diversification, a more affordable rent structure, and an experienced and capable operating platform will enable us to push back against some of this supply pressure, the high volume of new deliveries in several markets will continue to weigh on rent growth associated with new resident move-ins for the next few quarters. Encouragingly, there is now clear evidence emerging that new supply deliveries are poised to meaningfully drop late next year into 2025. We have certainly worked through these supply cycles before and continue to believe that MAA's more extensive market and submarket diversification, new AI and technology tools, and an experienced operating team has us in a position to outperform our markets. As we have discussed previously, one of the benefits that typically emerges from a heavy supply cycle, particularly one that is characterized by higher interest rates, is an increasing volume of acquisition and external growth opportunities. We have seen a shift take place with seller and developer pricing expectations. The more challenging lease-up conditions coupled with higher interest rates that are likely to be with us for a while are generating more buying opportunities. As Brad will recap in his comments, the property acquisition we completed after quarter end is a good example of where we expect more opportunities to emerge, specifically a recently completed new development that is still in initial lease up with seller requirements to close within a short timeframe. Before turning the call over to the team to provide details surrounding our performance and market conditions, Let me summarize what I believe are the four key takeaways in our report. First, demand across our markets remains solid and supportive of steady absorption of the new supply. Secondly, current high levels of new supply coupled with developer pressures related to a higher interest rate environment will cause the leasing environment to remain competitive for the next few quarters with new supply pressures expected to then decline. We expect to see an increasing number of compelling external growth opportunities in 2024. And fourth, MAA's long track record of performance and experience in working with markets with higher demand and supply dynamics, now further supported by a stronger technology platform and a strong balance sheet with significant capacity, has the company very well positioned as we work through the current cycle. And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Brad.
spk22: Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. As anticipated, we saw an increase in for-sell marketing activity emerge early in the third quarter. And while closed transactions are limited in number, we continue to see some upward pressure on cap rates on projects we track, with cap rates up by roughly 15 basis points from 2Q. As indicated in our earnings release, recently closed in the Phoenix market, that we began pursuing early in 3Q. MAA Central Avenue is a 323 unit mid-rise property that fits the profile of the type of opportunities we expected to emerge. The property is in its initial lease up and the seller was under some pressure to close on the sale by a specific date. So counterparty risk considerations were paramount to the seller. Our familiarity with the market, speed of execution, and balance sheet strength that supports an ability to close all cash with no financing contingencies were all aspects of our offer that were very important to the seller. Our pricing of approximately $317,000 per unit is substantially below current replacement costs and is expected to provide an initial stabilized NOI yield of 5.5%. With the property nearing stabilization, we expect over the following year or so to capture further margin and yield expansion opportunities as a result of adopting MAA's more sophisticated revenue management practices and technology platform, coupled with our future ability to achieve operational synergies with another MAA property that is only half a mile away. Our transaction team is very active in evaluating other acquisition opportunities across our footprint, And Al and Clay have our balance sheet in great position to be able to take advantage of additional compelling opportunities as they continue to materialize later this year and into 2024. Despite pressure from elevated supply, our new properties in their initial lease-up continue to deliver strong performance, producing higher NOIs and earnings than forecasted, creating additional long-term value for the company. These properties, on average, have captured in-place rents 15% above our original expectations. For the five properties that are either leasing or will start leasing by the end of the year, this rent outperformance, which is partially offset by higher expenses, including taxes and insurance, is estimated to produce an average stabilized NOI yield of 6.7%, significantly higher than our original expectations. Leasing has progressed well at MA Windmill Hill in Austin, and we expect this community to stabilize this quarter. We continue to advance pre-development work on several projects, but due to some permitting and approval delays, three projects that we plan to start this year will likely instead start in early 2024. In a number of our markets, construction costs have been slower to adjust than we expected, but we continue to see signs that a broader reduction in costs is likely to come. Numerous consultants that we work with, including architects and engineers, have indicated their volume of work has significantly decreased in the last few months, providing further evidence of a decline in new construction activity. Additionally, general contractors are indicating they have more capacity to start new projects, and in many cases with a larger pool of subcontractors available. In addition to the three projects mentioned that we expect to start over the next six months, we have five more projects representing approximately 1,320 units that could be ready for construction start by the end of 2024. Our team has done a tremendous job building out our future development pipeline, and today we own or control 13 well-located sites representing a growth opportunity of nearly 3,700 units. We have optionality on when we start these projects, allowing us to maintain our patience and discipline when making capital deployment decisions. Any project we start in 2024 will deliver units into a stronger leasing environment with lower competitive supply in late 2025 and 2026. Our development team continues to evaluate land sites as well as additional pre-purchase development opportunities. In this more constrained liquidity environment, we are hopeful that we may find additional development opportunities to add to our future pipeline. In addition to continuously monitoring the construction market and evaluating costs at our projects in pre-development, our construction management team is focused on completing and delivering our remaining 500 construction projects. During the third quarter, the team successfully wrapped up construction on Nava West Midtown in Atlanta, completing the delivery of all 340 units. That's all I have in the way of prepared comments, so with that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.
spk12: Thanks, Brad, and good morning. Same-store revenue growth for the quarter was essentially in line with our expectations, with sequentially higher occupancy offsetting sequentially declining new lease pricing. Increasing supply pressure did impact pricing in some of our markets, resulting in blended lease-over-lease pricing of 1.6%. comprises of new lease rates declining 2.2% and renewal rates increasing 5%. Average physical occupancy was 95.7%, resulting in revenue growth of 4.1%. The various metrics we measure related to demand remain strong. Employment markets remain stable with continued job growth across our Sunbelt markets. Net positive migration trends to our markets continue with move-ins to our footprint well ahead of move-outs outside of our footprint and remain consistent with what we have seen the last several quarters. Resident turnover was down once again in the third quarter, a 4% decrease from prior year. Collections remained strong and consistent with prior quarters. Our new resident rent-to-income ratio remains low and in line with prior quarters, and our lead volume is consistent with what we would expect and in line with pre-pandemic levels. But, as mentioned, we did feel the impact from due supply in the third quarter, which manifested itself in lower new lease pricing, particularly beginning in August and September. This pressure was driven by higher concession usage by developers in many of our markets, with a resulting reduction in net pricing in a number of our direct market comps. This peer pricing movement obviously does impact market pricing and impacts our asking rents. We believe the lingering higher interest rate environment, with the 10-year Treasury moving up quickly in the third quarter, is driving merchant developers to get more aggressive on pricing and is creating some pockets of pricing pressure. Historically, with typical seasonality, pricing trends, pricing tends to moderate some in Q3 as compared to Q2, and then moderate quite a bit more from Q3 to Q4, typically in the 200 basis point range. While we did see a greater degree of moderation in the third quarter as compared to the second quarter, with the solid demand factors mentioned previously, we expect less moderation than normal from Q3 to Q4. October to date, blended lease over lease pricing is zero, which is within 10 basis points of what was achieved in September, and a lower rate of decline than the more typical 60 basis points. Average physical occupancy for October month to date remains strong at 95.6% with exposure, which is a combination of current vacancy and units on notice to vacate, up 6.9% and in line with October of last year. In addition to the demand factors mentioned, increased absorption through the third quarter in the Sunbelt markets provides further evidence of continued solid demand to help mitigate the impact of the continuing new deliveries. The amount of new supply that was absorbed in the third quarter in our markets was the highest it has been since the beginning of 2022. Despite the new supply pressure in some markets, our unique portfolio strategy to maintain a broad diversity of markets, sub-markets, asset types, and price points is serving us well with many of our mid-tier markets leading the portfolio in pricing performance both in the third quarter and into October. Savannah, Charleston, Richmond, Greenville, and Raleigh are examples of markets outperforming larger metros with more new supply pressures such as Austin and Phoenix. We expect that this market diversification, combined with the continued strong demand fundamentals noted earlier, will help continue to mitigate some of the impacts of new supply as compared to a less diversified portfolio. Regarding redevelopment, we continued our various product upgrade initiatives in the third quarter. For the third quarter of 2023, we completed nearly 2,300 interior unit upgrades and are nearing completion on the Smart Home Initiative with over 92,000 units now with this technology. For our repositioning program, we have five active projects that have either begun repricing or will begin repricing in the fourth quarter with expected deals in the 8% range. Additionally, we are evaluating an additional group of properties to potentially begin construction later in 2023 or early in 2024 with a target to complete by early 2025. That's all I have in the way of prepared comments. I'll now turn the call over to Clay.
spk05: Thank you, Tim, and good morning. Reported core FFO for the quarter of $2.29 per share was $0.03 per share above the midpoint of our guidance. The outperformance was primarily driven by favorable interest and overhead costs during the quarter. Overall, same-store operating performance for the quarter was in line with our expectations. Same-store revenues were slightly ahead of expectations as average occupancy was better than forecasted. The increase in occupancy was offset by the moderation of effective rent growth on new move-in leases that Tim mentioned. As expected, we began to see some moderation in same-store operating expense growth during the third quarter. However, this moderation was less than what we had forecasted. Personnel costs came in higher than expected, primarily due to higher contract labor costs and higher leasing commissions, which helped drive the improvements in occupancy. The personnel costs were partially offset by real estate taxes that were favorable to our forecast for the quarter. We received more information related to the Texas state legislation that was passed in the quarter that reduced property tax rates in the state. Our projection for real estate taxes for the full year remains unchanged. During the quarter, we invested a total of $19.7 million of capital through our redevelopment, repositioning, and smart rent installation programs. Those investments continue to produce strong returns and add to the quality of our portfolio. We also funded just over $47 million of development costs during the quarter for the completion of the current $643 million pipeline, leaving $296 million remaining to be funded on this pipeline over the next two years. As Brad mentioned, we also expect to start several new projects over the next 12 to 18 months, which our balance sheet remains well positioned to support. We ended the quarter with $1.4 billion in combined cash and borrowing capacity under our revolving credit facility, providing significant opportunity to fund potential investment opportunities. Our leverage remains historically low, with the debt to EBITDA ratio at 3.4 times, and at quarter end, our debt was 100% fixed for an average of just over seven years at a low average interest rate of 3.4%. In October, we refinanced $350 million of maturing debt, utilizing cash on our balance sheet and our commercial paper program. Our current plan is to continue to be patient and allow interest rates and financing markets to stabilize before refinancing. That's all I have for my prepared comments, and I'll turn it over to Al to discuss Q4 guidance.
spk04: Thank you, Clay, and good morning, everyone. Given the third quarter performance outlined by Clay as well as expectations for the remainder of the year, we have updated and narrowed our guidance ranges for the year, which is detailed in the supplement to our release. Overall, the third quarter core FFO favorability, primarily related to overhead and interest costs, is expected to be essentially offset by higher than projected same-store operating expenses for the remainder of the year, which I'll discuss a bit more in just a moment. Thus, we are maintaining the midpoint of our core FFO projection for the full year of $9.14 per share, which reflects a 7.5% growth over the prior year. The midpoint of our total revenue growth projection for the year remains unchanged as the expected impact of pricing moderation, which is reflected in effective rent growth, is largely offset by the increase in projected average occupancy for the year. However, we have increased our guidance for same-store operating expense growth for the full year by 45 basis points to 6.5% at the midpoint. primarily reflecting the continued pressure and labor costs partially related to building higher occupancy. Both personnel and repair and maintenance costs are expected to moderate more as we move into 2024. While we maintained our full year guidance range for real estate taxes, we are impacted by some timing-related pressure during the fourth quarter as some of the initial favorability related to the Texas rate reduction is essentially offset by delays in litigation related to high valuations, which is being pushed into next year. We do expect real estate taxes overall to continue monitoring over the next couple years as we work through the changing cap rate environment. We also reduced our total overhead cost projection for the year by $2 million to $126.5 million at the midpoint, and we removed our disposition expectations for the current year to reflect the current market conditions. So that's all that we have in the way of prepared comments. Brittany will now turn the call back to you for questions.
spk00: We will now open the call up for questions. If you would like to ask a question, please press the stars on the number one on your touchstone phone. If you would like to withdraw your question, you may press the pound key. We'll take our first question from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Your line is open.
spk20: Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. My first question is just on the impact of the merchant builders delivering into a higher supply, higher rate environment. It seems like it's changed the lease up strategy. So I guess Is the largest impact here that rental rates have moved lower and will remain lower longer? And so I guess then initial expectations, so will this, does this create more pressure in the near term and also for longer, or is it just kind of a lower dip before it gets better, kind of seems like back half of 24, early 25?
spk12: I mean, I don't think it necessarily means longer. I think what did happen, as we talked about, it happened a little bit quicker, and I think, you know, the comments I made about the Treasury and developers getting more aggressive caused that moderation in new lease rates to occur a little bit earlier than we would have thought or a little bit quicker, really. But we don't see much further deceleration. I think what we see is with renewal rates continuing to be strong, we're getting – on what we've sent out or what we've got acceptance on for November and December in the 5% range. The spread between new lease rates and renewal rates is pretty typical, honestly, for this time of the year and tends to gap out. Both in Q4 and Q1, I think as you get into later into 2024, there'll be some normal seasonality that'll narrow that gap, but we'll be in this supply environment for the next few quarters. But don't expect materially worsening from here.
spk20: Got it. And are you seeing any difference in the performance between your Class B properties, which are priced at a discounted supply, versus the Class A, which should be competing more in line with where the new supply is coming in? Like, where is the pressure hitting the hardest?
spk12: thank you at a portfolio level we're not seeing a huge difference between the performance of a's and b's i will say at a market level some of our larger markets that are getting more of the supply we're seeing a little more pressure on some of those b plus a minus assets where that gap is narrowed but i do think that creates some opportunity longer term those those new developments are going to stabilize at some point at higher rents and that'll create some opportunity there But in some of our more mid-tier markets and smaller markets that aren't getting quite the supply pressure, we're not seeing that pressure.
spk02: And I think it's worth noting that even at the – The use of concessions is happening by some of the merchant developers in the third quarter. The price gap between what we're seeing of the new product delivering in the market with those concessions as compared to the average rent in our portfolio is still a spread of $300. That's down a little bit from $350 that we saw in Q2, but it's still a pretty healthy spread there.
spk20: Thank you very much. Good luck in the fourth quarter.
spk00: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Austin Warshman with KeyBank. Your line is open.
spk16: Great. Thank you. Last quarter, Eric, you had mentioned that you really didn't expect new lease rate growth to drop off and kind of highlighted that demand remained strong. So I guess, has it just been the cumulative impact of supply and concessions on lease-ups that's driven this softness? And really, how does that change your view around how 2024 market rent growth could shape up?
spk02: Well, Austin, I think that as Tim alluded to, I mean, the thing that frankly was a little bit surprising in the third quarter was the more aggressive practices taking place by some of the merchant developers that was directly impacting some of our customers. product in some of the larger markets. We do think that there's, it's interesting, we were looking at just sort of what happened during the third quarter in terms of the sort of rapid ramp up in the 10-year treasuries. And I think as developers are facing, particularly merchant builders who are facing a more competitive leasing landscape, With the reality of a prolonged high interest rate environment, there was a motivation, if you will, to get pretty darn aggressive in trying to get leased up before we got into the holiday season. And so that affected market dynamics in some of our markets and I think caused new lease pricing to moderate a little quicker than than we would have otherwise thought just because these merchant builders are a little bit of an urgency to get stabilized sooner rather than later. And so I think that that performance we think likely probably continues at some level. probably for the next couple of quarters or so. As Tim mentioned, given the strong absorption that we see happening overall across our markets, it's hard to see it getting you know, any worse than what we kind of saw in Q3. And then, you know, we're encouraged by the fact that October performance in the normal seasonal pattern that we see from Q3 to Q4, frankly, is better than what we have seen in the past. So, I mean, there are reasons for us to feel that, you know, we think that the environment we find ourselves in right now is likely to sort of continue for a while, probably through, I'm guessing, through Q2 of next year. By the time we get to Q3 of next year, comparing against this year, we think that things start to feel a lot more comfortable. Now, we'll have the compounding effect of Q3, Q4, Q1 that we'll have to carry and kind of work through revenue performance through most of next year. But we think that there's arguments to be made that the supply-demand dynamics that we see taking place right now are likely just going to hang where they are for the next few quarters. but not get materially weaker.
spk16: Got it. And so, I mean, I guess that kind of went to my second question, was it sounds like, you know, you think demand remains stable from here, which has actually been, you know, fairly strong, I think even accelerated the last couple quarters and helped absorb some of this supply. I mean, is it fair to say that you think you get some level of market rent growth, you know, positive next year, despite kind of this cumulative impact? based on your thoughts on how demand shakes out?
spk02: Yeah, we do. I mean, assuming that the economy continues to hold up as it is, we continue to capture the sort of tailwind that we're seeing with low resident turnover, lower levels of move outs to buy homes. Collections continue to remain strong. I mean, there's just, you know, as I've said for many, many years, you know, to me, at the end of the day, what really drives, you know, performance over the long haul is the demand side of the business. And that's why we've always focused our capital in the way we have across these Sunbelt markets, believing that the demand dynamic, you know, continues to provide a foundation for how we, you know, like to create value and drive performance over a long period of time. We have to deal with this periodic supply pressure that comes from time to time, and that's kind of what we're dealing with right now. But because of the demand side being as strong as it is, absorption continuing to be where it is, and Because of the approach that we take with diversification across the region, we think there are things that we can do to help sort of mitigate some of the supply pressure that you otherwise might think would, you know, if you look at just overall market dynamics, we think that when you put the portfolio together the way that we have, that we can push back against some of these supply pressures when they do occur from time to time. So I think that, you know, we think that as we get into the back half of next year that we probably do start to see supply levels start to moderate and some of the developer pressures start to moderate. We probably do start to see market rent growth turn positive on the new lease pricing. And then, as Tim mentioned, you know, we continue to get – pretty solid performance on our renewal practices. And if you go back over a number of years, you'll see that our renewal practices have always been fairly strong. And we take, you know, a certain approach to how we think about renewal pricing. And, you know, we continue to believe that that will remain a tailwind for us over the coming year.
spk16: Thanks, Eric. Appreciate the detailed responses.
spk00: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Eric Wolf with Citi. Your line is now open.
spk21: Hey, thanks. I just wanted to follow up on that answer there. You said that you don't expect new lease rates to get much worse from here, so I don't want to put words in your mouth, but does that mean you're sort of expecting like negative 4% to negative 5% new lease for the foreseeable future, and should that continue through Q2 next year? Because it sounds like you're saying that But the dynamic is seen today as you continue to 2Q and then probably get better as you get in the back half of the year.
spk12: Hey, Eric, this is Tim. I mean, I do think new lease rates probably hang in this range for a few months. You know, obviously, typically Q4 and Q1 are kind of the weakest in terms of seasonality and the amount of traffic and all that. But I do think we will see some level of – an air kit on this little bit, some level of normal seasonality as we get into later into 24. So I think as we get into March and April and the spring and higher traffic volumes, that we'll see some acceleration in those new lease rates. And I don't expect much change in renewals. We've been pretty consistent with our renewal rates going back for several years. We think those will hold up and we think the turnover rate remains low, which, you know, provides the
spk02: renewal side with with more of that blend when you think about blended lease over lease right so I think I think we're going to be in this in this range for for a few months but I don't think it sticks like that you know for the next 12. and we typically see the the gap between new lease pricing or renewal pricing sort of gap out the most in Q4 and Q1 and then it tends to narrow in Q2 and Q3 and we think that that seasonal pattern is likely to repeat next year
spk21: Got it. That's really helpful. And I guess that's my second question, which is that, you know, historically, I think you said there's been about 500 to 600 basis points of spread on renewals versus new leases. There's nothing that would sort of change that just based on the supply dynamic today. It's not going to get wider or necessarily thinner. It's just it's probably going to be about the same spread as typical.
spk12: Yeah, and to clarify or put some color on that, that 500 spread for us typically is what it is in the summer and kind of Q2, Q3 range with renewals remaining pretty consistent. Historically, Q4, Q1, Q4 is usually the biggest. usually in the 900 base point range, kind of similar to what we're seeing right now, and then squeeze down to call it 700, 800, and Q1, and then get more in that 500 base point range during the heart of the spring and summer. So don't really see, you know, that's the normal seasonality. We would expect that to recur in some levels.
spk21: Got it. Okay. Thank you.
spk00: Thank you. We will take our next question from Sandy Feldman with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
spk10: Great. Thank you, and thanks for taking my question. So it sounds like you could see a ramp up here in acquisition activity, investment activity. You know, you had mentioned the Phoenix acquisition at 317,000 per unit. You also talked about a 5.5% yield. As you think about yields, I mean, what are the metrics that you care about? Is it price per unit? Is it ASFO accretion? Is it NAV accretion? And then how do you think about your cost of capital and, you know, the required spread to your cost of capital to put money to work?
spk02: Well, I mean, you know, I mean, the thing that we really prioritize more than anything is sort of what sort of stabilized yield do we think we will get from making a new investment and how does that compare to our current cost of capital? And as you think about cost of capital today and look at sort of where we are able to put our balance sheet to work, call it 5.5%, you think about a longer perspective on cost of capital being a function of dividend yield and sort of FFO yield, core FFO yield, and you blend that, you're still in that kind of 5.5% range. And so You know, as we think about this deal that we did in Phoenix, I mean, the opportunity to put a brand new asset on the balance sheet that is going to be, we think, a great performer for us long term, to put that on the balance sheet, you know, initially, you know, even though it's still in sort of its initial lease up, to be able to bring it on the balance sheet at It's basically right at our cost of capital with full understanding that we've got some real operating upside opportunity that we can capture over the first year or so from our revenue management practices and some of the cost efficiencies that we'll bring to bear on an operation that doesn't have those advantages. coupled with the fact, as Brad mentioned, this property is only less than half a mile from one of our other properties, and we will, over the next year or so, you know, pod what we refer to as pod this property with the other and drive down some of the operating costs. We think over the next couple of years, you know, that we'll see that yield meaningfully go up from there. So, you know, we think at this point, you know, that makes a lot of sense to us, and I think that, you know, we're going to continue to, we think, see more of that opportunity emerge over the coming year.
spk10: Okay. And can you quantify how much you think the yield goes up with the revenue management and putting the MAA touch on these assets?
spk02: You know, I'd probably put it at at least 100 basis point margin expansion to probably 200, somewhere in that range.
spk10: Okay. Okay. And then secondly, you may have answered it with Eric's question, but just thinking about October, I mean, what can you tell us about rent, you know, blended rent, new renewal rent so far in October?
spk12: Yeah, this is Tim. So for October, as I mentioned, and the blended is right around zero, we're at about negative 5.3 on new lease and 4.4 on renewals as we stand right now.
spk10: Okay. And then finally for me, Atlanta specifically, can you talk about, I mean, you had kind of below average revenue growth there. Is that pressure on rents from supply, or is that more about some of the issues you've mentioned in the past, fraud, some of the other kind of unique factors to that market?
spk12: Yeah, I mean, there's certainly a few unique factors in Atlanta, and what you mentioned is part of that. I mean, it's Pricing is a little bit weak. It's a little bit lower than I would say some of our portfolio average. They are getting some of the supply pressure that a lot of the other markets are getting as well. I think what we're seeing in Atlanta is a little more on the occupancy side. Though it is slowly improving, we saw a 40 basis point increase in occupancy from Q2 to Q3 in Atlanta. But there are a couple unique circumstances that you mentioned. One, if you remember earlier in the year, we talked about between the winter storm and a fire we had in Atlanta, we had a lot of down units that came on sort of late first, early second. So we were kind of working through that from an occupancy standpoint. And then has been well documented by a lot of people, some of the fraud concerns in Atlanta. And I think that's starting to work itself through as well. The courts are becoming a little more a little more aggressive on that. And we've seen, you know, the number of skip evicts that we've had in that market is about double from where it was last year. So create some pressure in the short term on occupancy, but certainly a longer term in terms of resident quality and ability to pay is much better. And we've also been able through in-house training we've done and really focused on fraud income. We've seen the number of people coming into the door, we think is with that scenario is much less. And we've seen our The number of age balances we have in terms of residence is way down, and just the amount of delinquents we had in Atlanta is way down. So some unique circumstances there for sure, but we think it's headed in the right direction.
spk10: Okay, and as you think about those factors, does it give you pause on it being your largest market over the long term? Is that a reason you'd want to shrink there or grow in other markets more?
spk02: I mean, we continue to look at all the markets and we probably over the next number of years, you'll probably see us continue to cycle some capital out of the Atlanta. It's going to be more driven by asset specific decisions. property-specific decisions. I mean, we continue to like the Atlanta market long-term. A lot of great job growth drivers and demand drivers in that market. It's like all the other markets. They will go through periods of supply pressure from time to time, but the demand dynamics there are pretty healthy. And I think some of the things that Tim was alluding to that were unique to Atlanta, really are attributable to some of the practices that, you know, were adopted during the COVID years. And the court systems there got really sort of backlogged, if you will. And it's just taken longer for that market to sort of work back to normal. We see it happening. But, you know, we like the Atlanta market long term for sure. Okay.
spk10: All right. Thank you.
spk00: Thank you. We will take our next question from Nick Ulico with Scotiabank. Your line's open.
spk06: Thanks. Good morning. I was hoping to get your loss to lease, if you're able to quantify that.
spk12: Yeah, Nick, this is Tim. So a couple of comments there. If you look at sort of where where we are right now and what's going to earn in or be baked in for next year with pricing today plus the pricing that we're assuming for Q4, probably have one to one and a quarter of baked in or earned in, if you will, that'll flow into 2024. Thinking about loss to lease and just in terms of kind of where rents are right now, it's probably about a negative one loss to lease given what we've seen with new lease rates right now. That's where I would peg it sitting here in October.
spk06: Very helpful. Just one other question. Going back to the acquisition and the 5.5% initial stable yield, is that number impacted by concessions reducing that yield? I don't know if there's any way you can quantify whether that would be a higher yield absent if there's concessions.
spk22: Yeah. Hey, Nick, this is Brad. Yeah. I mean, that's inclusive of concessions. You know, the property is in lease up and, you know, it's offering about a month to six weeks generally on new leases. And so that includes the impact of that. So that would be, you know, your net effective rent. So assuming that we get the stabilization, we would see some strengthening there. And the use of concessions would generally burn off on renewals. We're not generally using concessions on these properties. We would also see some expansion in that yield at that point.
spk06: Okay, great. Thanks.
spk00: Thank you. We'll take our next question from John Kim with BMO. Your line is open.
spk08: Thanks. Good morning. I was wondering if you could talk about the impact of rising interest rates. on leasing demands and landlord behavior. I know you commented that demand has been strong. You had an occupancy pickup in the third quarter. So when you discuss new lease growth rates of minus 4% in September and minus 5.3 in October, it seems to coincide with the interest rate environment. I just wanted to get your comments on that.
spk02: I think what we think is at play here is that in this environment, With a lot of these merchant built properties currently in lease up, the lease up environment and the financing environment that they are facing today is most assuredly not what they contemplated when they started construction two years ago. And as a consequence of that, I believe that what is happening is that some of the merchant-built product is in a rush to get stabilized as quickly as possible, preferably before we even get into the holiday season, which is why I think there was a lot of noticeable shift that took place in August and September. Because, you know, it's probably they're probably late in their timeline in terms of what they forecast and what they underwrote. And certainly they are going to face an exit or refinancing that is going to be different than what was contemplated. And while there may have been some early hope that we would start to see moderation in interest rates, By this time, I think that hope is now gone, and we likely are in this rate environment we are in today for quite some time moving forward. So I just think that all that is combined to create – we knew in a high-supply environment that lease-up pressure exists, but I think it's just been a little bit more intense because of what's going on with the interest rate environment, and therefore it's manifesting itself in – more competitive pricing practices in an effort to attract new residents and leasing traffic. And so I think that that's what's at play here. I think that once we sort of work through this scenario that, you know, as we've been talking about, the supply picture starts to get a lot better, meaningfully better. And, you know, we think that we just got to put our head down and operate through this for the next couple of quarters or so.
spk08: Can you comment on your turnover rate, which declined 40 basis points and remains near historically low levels, and how you are able to maintain this turnover rate with all the new supplies that's coming online? And if you're contemplating offering concessions, I don't know.
spk12: I mean, as far as the turnover, I mean, we expect it. We certainly didn't really expect turnover to go up with all the factors we see at play. I mean, between move-outs by house and move-outs for a job change, those are far and away our two biggest reasons for move-outs. And as expected, the the move outs by house is way down so we don't see that you know again given the interest rate environment we don't see that uh changing anytime near term some of the other things that drove move out or turnover up last year are down so i would expect as we get into 2024 that there's not a lot of change in terms of turnover certainly no significant increase in turnover And so I think that serves us well on the renewal side. Certainly we wouldn't need to look and do anything more than we're doing now on that renewal side.
spk02: Encouragingly, I'll add, in the third quarter, the move-outs that we had that occurred due to rent increase were half of what they were in Q3 of last year. So what's really at play here on the turnover is just people aren't buying houses.
spk08: Great. Thank you, everyone. And Al, congratulations on your retirement.
spk03: Yeah, thank you, John. I'm excited about the prospects for the future, but also excited about what the company's going to do in the next few quarters and years as well.
spk08: You leave the company in good hands. Thank you. Thank you.
spk00: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Josh Zerianen with Bank of America.
spk18: Hey, guys. Just wanted to follow up on a comment you made. It sounded like you were a bit surprised just by the competition from the new supply. I guess what is most surprising to you?
spk02: Well, we're not surprised by the competition from new supply. What we're surprised by is how aggressive some of the merchant developers have gotten in an effort to expedite their lease up sooner than getting stabilized as quick as possible. And as I commented on, we think that that is related to what is clearly now an indication relating to interest rate trends. And we saw the behavior with lease ups and concessions begin to shift a bit in August and September as the 10-year treasury really started moving up to 5%, close to 5%. And I think it just triggered a urgency in developers that have leased up projects on their books to, you know, get stabilized and get out of it or get it, you know, as soon as possible. And so I think that that's what's at play here. And so that was probably the only thing that, or it was the only thing I can point to that was a bit of a surprise. We expected demand to remain stable. And it is, as Tim alluded to, our absorption numbers across our markets are really strong. We've not seen any moderation on the demand side of the curve. We knew the supply picture. I mean, there was no secret about that. We've seen that coming for the past year or so. So no real surprises there. It's really just the behavior of some of these lease-up projects and the motivation that they have to get leased up sooner rather than later. And I think that that goes right back to what I just mentioned, is that the recognition that the high-rate environment we find ourselves in, interest rate environment, is likely to be with us for a while. And I think it just prompted some actions on behalf of developers to, you know,
spk18: get uh get you know drop pricing introduce more concessions higher concessions drive down net effective pricing quicker which affected market dynamics to some degree okay i appreciate that caller and maybe just a follow-up on that if i if i think through it i'm pretty sure peak deliveries are still in 2024 um is is your assumption that this aggressive behavior kind of continues because I mean, I would assume if there's more properties coming online and the interest rates keep going higher, they would want to kind of lease up as quick as possible. Do you think this competition gets heavier in 2024? Yeah, that's my question there.
spk02: You know, it's hard to say for sure, but the short answer is no, I don't think so. for that is I think that where there is an urgency that's come into the equation and a higher level of urgency by developers, I think to some degree a lot of it may be time to some calendar year-end pressures that they may be thinking about. I think that perhaps is at play here a bit. When you think about supply levels being where they are, we don't Of course, it varies a lot by market. We think that the supply levels and deliveries that are taking place are likely to be fairly consistent to where they are right now for the next couple of quarters or so, call it through Q2 of next year. It's hard to pinpoint it exactly, but I don't think that there is material change in the supply dynamic that we're seeing today. I don't think there's a material change in the demand dynamic that we see taking place today. And I think that the only change was, if you will, just that lease-up pressure that I think some of the developers were feeling, given what's going on with the interest rates. And I think perhaps that there is at least some of them that are facing some calendar year-end obligations that they're trying to think through as well.
spk22: Hey, Josh, this is Brad. I'll add color in two ways to that. Number one is just remember that developers are incentivized to lease up and sell quickly. Their IRRs are impacted, obviously, the sooner they sell an asset. And I think partly what's happened on these projects is, according to our math, generally they have to be about 90% occupied to cover their current debt service coverage through their cash flow without having to go back to their partner and ask for capital. So to Eric's point, I think once the 10-year hits that psychological level of 4%, It was a realization that, you know, sales values are going to be impacted. So the sooner they could get to that point, the better for their IRR calculations and also for the waterfalls in those projects. So I think that's driving, to Eric's point, by the end of the year and a quicker process of leasing up to cover debt service coverage and get to the point where they could transact, you know, the asset in order to drive higher waterfall promotes to themselves.
spk18: Thanks, guys.
spk00: Thank you. And we will take our next question from John Polosky with Green Street. Your line is open.
spk09: Thanks. Good morning. Clay, do you expect any notable acceleration or deceleration in the major expense categories throughout the next year?
spk05: We do expect that there will be some moderation in operating expenses going into next year. You saw in the report that personnel costs and repair and maintenance costs were higher than what we had expected or projected. But we still do expect those to continue to moderate as we move into next year.
spk09: It's roughly 6% property tax growth rate. Do you expect it to kind of bounce around this level for the foreseeable future?
spk05: Probably, that'll probably moderate a little bit as well. You know, as this current environment that we're seeing with high prices, evaluations, as those begin to kind of taper down, that should work its way through the real estate taxes. And so we'd expect to see some moderation there as well. How fast that'll play through, that remains to be seen.
spk09: Okay. Last one for me, Tim. Hoping you can give us a sense for what new lease declines in October look like in a few of the most heavily supplied markets. I'm just curious what the kind of the bottom tranche of the portfolio looks like today.
spk12: New lease rates for October, is that what you're saying, John?
spk09: For the most heavily supplied markets.
spk12: Yeah, I mean, Austin continues to be the worst. We've talked about that for a while. Austin is in the high negative single digits and is our worst market in terms of new lease pricing. You know, like I said, same store level. It's right around five for October. Tampa's a little bit higher, but Austin is the one that kind of stands out above all.
spk09: Okay. Thank you for your time.
spk00: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Market. Your line is open.
spk13: Hey, good morning, everybody. It seems like the message here is that there are a few weak quarters ahead, but that things are expected to get better in the back half of 24. I'm just curious if you can give more color around what gives you confidence in that timing. You do obviously have supply peaking in mid-24, but it does still look elevated into 25, and then the lease-ups don't end when the deliveries fall off. So I'm curious for any thoughts there.
spk02: Well, I think that, you know, what I would point to, Brad, is this Eric, is just, you know, we continue to see a lot of support on the demand side and the absorption rates that we see taking place remain very healthy. And so I think that all the factors that are sort of supporting the demand side of the business, the employment markets, low turnover, you know, solid collections, performance, wage growth, All those factors, continued net positive migration trends, all those factors continue to look solid, and there's nothing that we can see suggesting that moderation is set to occur in that regard. I think that as we sort of work through the current pipeline of deliveries, that some of the behavior that is occurring right now likely starts to moderate a little bit, and some of the more stressed lease-ups get sort of worked through the system, and some of the developers are under the most pressure, if you will, sort of get work through the system. And then, of course, as we start to get into the back half of next year, we've been through a complete cycle, if you will, with this pressure. And the comparisons to the prior leases and the comparisons to the prior year start to get a little bit more tolerable, if you will. So I just think that, you know, we feel like that we've got, you know, call it two or three quarters of this environment. And you've got seasonal patterns at play here, too. You recognize that Q3 is the point of the year where where moderation has typically always occurred anyway from a leasing perspective and then sort of works through Q4 and then by Q1, particularly in February and particularly in March, things start to pick up and then you get into the spring and the summer and the absorption rate picks up even more. So I think that to have what we have now happening in one of the weaker quarters of the year from a seasonality perspective, and early on in the delivery sort of pressure pipeline, I think that it gives us some reason and comfort that by the time we get to the back half of next year, the conditions start to change a bit.
spk13: Okay, that's all I have. Thanks.
spk00: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Connor Mitchell with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.
spk19: Hey, thanks for taking my question. So you guys discussed the rising labor costs a little bit, and maybe that's especially with third-party vendors. So just thinking about that, it would be fair to presume that your markets are strong economically, which would bode well for demand. So thinking about the big picture, would it be fair to say that demand and rent growth are healthy enough to offset the rising labor costs?
spk02: Well, I mean, you know, the demand is strong, but, you know, in terms of revenue growth, I mean, the problem we're facing is or the challenge we're facing is just a lot of supply in the pipeline right now. And that's what's really that sort of supply-demand dynamic is. is not as strong as it had been. And so that's what's really creating this spread, if you will, between sort of rent growth and what we see taking place with growth rate and labor costs, as Clay alludes to, we are seeing, at least with our own, you know, sort of hiring practices, that we are starting to see a little moderation begin to show up. And we do think as we get into, and as Brad alluded to, you know, we're seeing a lot of evidence out there with the Some of the people we talked to, various vendors and architects and others we work with on the development side, that the construction workforce is starting to have a little bit more availability and is not quite as much in demand. And that, to some degree, affects our labor costs as it relates to our maintenance operations. We do think, as Clay alluded to, we do think that we likely are looking at some moderation in labor costs from the growth rate that we're seeing today. We expect some moderation on that as we get into next year.
spk19: Okay, that's helpful. And then maybe sticking with demand. you've referenced that demand is really the driving force a lot and supply comes and goes um could you just maybe rank how historically how strong demand is in the pace of demand in this year maybe heading into the year end compared to previous years in cycles
spk02: Well, I mean, Tim, you want to?
spk12: I was just going to make one point. At a high level, we've done some research, and with some of our third-party data, if you go back the last five years or so, or really the last five or ten years, The highest-supplied markets, which tend to have been in the Sun Belt, have also been some of the best rent growth markets, and that's because of that demand side. So, you know, we have historically, over the long term, demand has more than offset the supply picture. Now, we have an elevated supply picture right now that's put that out of balance, at least for a temporary time. But as we get into late next year and over the long term, Historically, it's shown, and we believe continues to show, and all the demand fundamentals show that over the long term, that demand outpaces the supply.
spk02: I can't tell you compared to sort of the migration numbers that we saw kind of throw the COVID years out. which were a bit unusual. But the level of net in-migration that we see happening right now is still higher than it was historically, higher than it was before COVID. And so these Sunbelt markets continue to offer a lot of things that employers are looking for. And so that component of the demand cycle I think is better than it historically has been. I'll also tell you that the move outs to home buying and the tailwind that we're getting on demand as a consequence of that have never been this strong either. And so there are some unique variables out there right now that continue to support demand at a level that is stronger than what we've seen historically.
spk19: Okay, I appreciate the caller. And maybe if I could just sneak one more in. Going back to Atlanta, did you mention that you're recapturing some of the units due to the fraud issues or would you be able to provide a timeline on when you would recapture those units? Thanks.
spk12: Well, I mean, it's an ongoing process. I think what we've seen is that, you know, for a period from COVID Up until really early this year, the counties in Atlanta specifically have been really slow to act or take any action whatsoever. So we've seen that start to accelerate. Fulton County is still a little bit of an issue, but Cobb and DeKalb have increased their activities. So we see it starting to happen. And I think we've gotten through a lot of it, but it'll continue over the next few months. And I think as we get into... Later next year, we're back into more of a normal situation in terms of Atlanta. Like I said, we've done a lot of work to make sure we're not exacerbating the problem by letting any potential fraudulent people coming in the front door.
spk19: All right, great. Thank you very much.
spk00: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Rich Anderson with Whitbush. Your line is open.
spk07: Hey, thanks. Good morning. So getting back to the acquisition strategy, I think, you know, one of the problems we've seen over the years is they've bought when they should be selling and they've sold when they should be buying. And so, you know, what you're saying is interesting. I'm wondering the speed by which this strategy could unfold. You know, you talked about the implied cost of your equity. If your balance sheet is obviously very attractive, but perhaps inefficiently so at 3.4 times debt, that leaves $1.3 billion or so of more debt you could put on just to get to 4.5 times. Maybe that's untouchable now in the rate environment. But I'm just curious, you know, you've got some arrows and quivers to finance this. Could this be some sizable activity at this point, or do you think it will be more like one-off? asset by asset, like non-needle moving type of stuff for the time being?
spk02: Well, we hope it will be needle moving. We're optimistic, Rich, that, you know, that there will be certainly more buying opportunity emerging over the coming year. Now, having said that, there are a lot of people with a lot of dry powder right now, and I think multifamily real estate is still viewed as an attractive option commercial real estate asset class, and everybody understands the need for housing in the country, and I think there's a more healthy appreciation for these Sunbelt markets, perhaps, than there has been in a number of years. And so we think that while the opportunity to buy in the transaction market gets better, we think that it will also potentially be pretty competitive. We would hope to, you know, going back to the last recession, 2008-2009, the two years coming out of that recession downturn, we bought 7,000 apartments over a two-year period of time. I don't see that getting repeated, but we do think that the opportunity set will be more plentiful for us going over the coming year than it has been certainly for the last four or five years. in this higher rate environment. Some of the private equity players are not going to be quite as, be able to be quite as aggressive as they have been. There's more of a sort of an equilibrium in terms of cost of capital between us and the private guys, given their higher use of debt. And you're right. I mean, we've got a lot of capacity on the balance sheet. We're anxious to put it to work, but we're going to remain disciplined about it. But we do think that the opportunities definitely start to pick up, and we're hopeful it will be significant.
spk07: Okay, great. And then second question, maybe to Tim or others, but on the October spread between new and renewal, you know, the pendulum on these sort of growth numbers always swings too wide. I don't think anyone expected 20% plus type of rent growth a year ago, and maybe this is surprising to the downside. When you think about the first half of 2024, should we be conditioning all of us, investors and analysts, for negative blended number, at least for the first half of the year, when you think about that pendulum factor? Or is zero your kind of number from this point forward? You're not giving guidance, but is there a range of of sort of surprise factor that could bring that into negative territory, at least for a period of time next year.
spk12: Zero is what we have dialed in for Q4 in terms of our forecast, which, as we said, is kind of where we sit right now for October. And Q1, typically compared to Q4, if I'm thinking about sort of normal environment or historical environment, it's usually pretty similar. I do think, you know, I think you can see those numbers move a little bit on the margins up or down in terms of blended going slightly negative or slightly positive. I do think... As I mentioned earlier, as we get into the spring, I think you start to see some normal seasonality in terms of the new lease race. You're not going to jump up to positive three or four all of a sudden, but I do think you'll see some acceleration. So there will be some bands, but I don't think it's widely different than what you talked about because we do think renewals remain pretty consistent. And with where we see turnover going, that'll blend in as a little bit bigger factor in terms of that overall blended rate as compared to new leases.
spk07: Okay, good enough. And congrats, Al.
spk03: Good luck to you. Thanks, Rich. I appreciate it, man.
spk00: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Anthony Powell with Barclays. Your line is open.
spk11: Hi, good morning. Quick question on the transaction environment. I think you mentioned that you saw cap rates increase by 15 basis points in the third quarter. Given where interest rates have gone and given where public market, you know, stocks have gone, I would have expected that to maybe expand a bit more. So where do you think cap rates go the next few quarters as you seek to deploy more capital here?
spk22: Hey, Anthony, this is Brad. I mean, I think a couple things. One, keep in mind that, you know, what we saw in the third quarter was was very limited in terms of transactions. Certainly, as I mentioned in my comments, we saw activity, marketing activity pick up a bit early in the third quarter, but a lot of that has not closed at this point. Really just a handful of projects closed, and we saw those cap rates come up a little bit. But to Eric's point earlier about the availability of capital. You know, for well-located properties in good markets, we continue to see, you know, strong bid sheets for those. And so, you know, and we're still seeing cap rates in the low 5% range for those well-located assets. I would expect to see pressure on cap rates, but really it's going to depend on how that liquidity shows up for those assets to bid on them. But certainly given the The severe movement that we've seen in the 10-year in agency debt today is in the 6.5, 6.75 range. We would expect some upward movement in cap rates, but to what degree is going to depend on the liquidity picture, the fundamentals of the properties, locations, things of that nature. So it's really hard to say where that goes from here.
spk11: Got to think. And maybe on turnover and renewal rent growth, How aware are tenants typically of a high supply growth environment like this? And are you seeing tenants come to you and ask for rent declines, seeing tenants move out to newer buildings? And is that a risk next year as more of these apartments are delivered in your markets?
spk12: Well, I think certainly they're aware. I mean, the transparency now with what's on websites and social media and everything else and all the different marketing avenues and advertising platforms that certainly they're aware and you can see down to a unit level a lot of times on websites. But I don't think that's necessarily a new phenomenon. It's been that way now at least for the last couple of years. So, You know, I think there's a component on the renewal side of just, you know, you've hopefully provided them with good resident service. They're happy where they're living. They're happy with the manager and their owner. And, you know, there are some friction costs involved as well. It's a pain to move. It's expensive to move. So there's some things from a customer service. friction call standpoint that are meaningful. But, you know, overall, as we talked about, I don't see turnover changing much from where it is now. So I don't think that becomes any more of an outsized pressure than it has been. All right. Thank you.
spk00: Thank you. We will take our next question from Wes Goloday with Bayer. Your line is open.
spk17: Hey, good morning, everyone. I have a question on the capital allocation front. I mean, it's a point where buybacks would maybe become a top priority when you consider, you know, where development yields are penciling in and acquisition yields. I mean, they seem pretty thin, you know, where the 10-year trading and typically acquisition cap rates have been, you know, north of 100, 200 basis points over the 10 years. So it seems like there's going to be an upward pressure in the private market.
spk02: Well, again, as we touched on a little earlier, I mean, we think that the opportunity to put capital to work, as we did with the Phoenix acquisition, is the appropriate and best sort of value creation from a long-term perspective, particularly given where the initial yield is and the opportunity we have, we think, over the next couple of years to really improve that yield meaningfully. So we continue to believe that remaining patient with the balance sheet capacity we have and looking for what we are expecting to be even more compelling opportunities as we move forward with some of the distress in the market from some of these merchant builders that the longer-term value creation associated with some of these acquisitions is going to make a lot more sense. As Brad mentioned, we do have... of opportunity teeing up on the development front, but we control the timing on that, and we do think that we're going to see some moderation begin to take place with the construction cost, and we think the yields there are going to get better. And so, as I say, we've got the luxury of controlling the timing of when we elect to pull the trigger on those projects. And, of course, these projects, if we were to start anything next year, I mean, it's going to deliver in 26 and 27, and it's going to be, we think, a much healthier leasing environment at that point. So, you know, we're going to be patient, but we think that, you know, some of the external growth opportunities that we have in front of us over the coming couple of years is the best sort of value creation opportunity possible.
spk17: um that we have uh you know in terms of how to put this balance sheet capacity to work and a follow-up to that have you seen any portfolios where maybe someone aggregated assets and you know maybe debt was underwritten at a very low cap rate environment or maybe a lot of floating rate debt is there anything kind of penciled in that fits your quality criteria
spk02: Well, we pay attention to those opportunities when they come out. More often than not, what we have found is the asset quality is not really what we want to do and not of interest to us. And a lot of the aggressive buying and high leverage buying that took place over the last few years, a lot of it was associated with... you know, sort of a lower price point product to our current portfolio, and just we haven't found it to be particularly compelling to add to our balance sheet.
spk17: Great. Thanks for taking the questions in. Congrats, Al.
spk03: Thank you, Wes. I appreciate that, man.
spk00: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Your line is open.
spk15: Hi, just one really quick one. Can you remind us what's causing higher fraud in certain markets? You know, is it demographic shift, technology, and then, you know, what are mitigation strategies?
spk12: I mean, it's difficult to say. I think what we have seen is certainly since COVID and post-COVID that the actions taken by the courts and the judges and that sort of thing has become a little bit more lax so that frankly creates a little bit more opportunity for bad actors. What we've done in turn is we've familiarize ourselves and have some experts, so to speak, within our team that are good at identifying that sort of thing. And frankly, what happens is if you start to get a reputation, if you will, that these guys are good at catching it and the people trying to come in the front door that way tend to stay away. So it starts to solve itself from some standpoint if you can be good at detecting it and good at preventing it.
spk02: And Linda, I'd add a couple things to that. I do think that new technology that's available to people today has probably fostered some opportunity and techniques and certain capabilities in this area that are different certainly than where they were years ago and probably a little bit harder to detect. um and we've we've made some modifications in our approval processes and how we screen that is now much more effective at that and the other thing i would just comment on that you alluded to is is it's important to recognize that where we have seen this it's really been pretty isolated we've called out atlanta and frankly just a few properties in the atlanta market where we saw this uh in a you know pick up in a noticeable way I wouldn't suggest that this is, you know, a pervasive practice that we see happening across the portfolio in a lot of different markets. It was really more of an isolated scenario. It happens to be Atlanta where we have a lot, but, you know, and as Tim mentioned, we see the trends changing there as a consequence and improving as a consequence of some of the changes that we've made in our approval processes.
spk15: Got it. Thanks for the call, Eric.
spk00: We have no further questions. I will turn the call over to MMA for closing remarks.
spk02: We appreciate everyone joining us this morning, and I'm sure we'll see most of you at NAE REIT in a couple of weeks, so thank you.
spk00: This concludes today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
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