Masco Corporation

Q2 2021 Earnings Conference Call

7/29/2021

spk03: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to MASCO's second quarter conference call. My name is Dorothy, and I will be your operator for today's call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded for replay purposes. To ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press the pound key. I will now turn the call over to David Chayka, Vice President, Treasurer, and Investor Relations. You may begin.
spk05: Thank you, Dorothy, and good morning. Welcome to Masco Corporation's 2021 second quarter conference call. With me today are Keith Allman, President and CEO of Masco, and John Snubice, Masco's Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our second quarter earnings release and the presentation slides that we will refer to today are available on our website under Investor Relations. Following our remarks, we will open the call for analyst questions. Please limit yourself to one question with one follow-up. If we can't take your question now, please call me directly at 313-792-5500. Our statements today will include our views about our future performance, which constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. We've described these risk and uncertainties in our risk factors and other disclosures in our Form 10-K and our Form 10-Q that we filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Our statements will also include non-GAAP financial metrics. Our references to operating profit and earnings per share will be as adjusted unless otherwise noted. We reconcile these adjusted metrics to GAAP in our earnings release and presentation slides, which are available on our website under Investor Relations. With that, I now turn the call over to Keith.
spk10: Thank you, Dave. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I hope everyone is staying safe and healthy. We performed exceptionally well in the second quarter, and demand for our products was strong. This resulted in our fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit sales growth and sixth consecutive quarter of both margin expansion and double-digit earnings per share growth. I'm extremely proud of our entire team as we successfully navigated numerous supply chain challenges to enable this growth. For the quarter, sales increased 24%. Excluding acquisitions, divestitures, and currency, sales increased 18%. Operating profit increased 27%, and margins expanded 60 basis points to 20.1%. principally due to strong volume leverage. Earnings per share increased an outstanding 34%. Our overall performance demonstrates the strength of our portfolio of lower ticket repair and remodel products that are diversified across geographies and channels, serving both the consumer and the professional. Turning to our plumbing segment, sales increased 48%, excluding currency, led by exceptional growth from our North American and international faucet and shower businesses and our spa business. International plumbing grew 50% in the quarter, excluding currency, as Hansgrohe's sales rebounded sharply in nearly all of its markets. Strong operational execution and new products such as Hansgrohe's Rainfinity shower systems led to share gains in many of these markets. New product introductions will continue as we launch the award-winning Axor One collection in the second half of the year. This collection was designed by Barbara Osgerby, an award-winning, internationally acclaimed London-based industrial design studio. This continues Hansgrohe's legacy of combining leading contemporary design with innovative functionality. North American plumbing posted strong growth of 47%, excluding currency in the second quarter, led by approximately 75% growth at Watkins Wellness and robust double-digit growth at Delta. Delta Faucet delivered another record quarter with growth across all channels and particularly strength in the professionally oriented trade channel. We continue to invest in new products in North American plumbing as well. And two days ago, we introduced a Frank Lloyd Wright collection by Breezo that furthers the brand's commitment to distinctive design and innovative products. Lastly in plumbing, at the beginning of July, we acquired Steam Mist, another bolt-on acquisition for Delta. Steam Mist is a leading manufacturer of residential steam bath products. that will complement our strong trade in e-commerce product offering and is consistent with our bolt-on acquisition strategy. In our decorative architectural segment, sales declined 5% against a healthy 8% comp for the second quarter of 2020. While bath and cabinet hardware, lighting, and pro paint grew in the quarter, demand moderated for DIY paint. Material availability and other supply chain issues also impacted our overall coatings business, as nearly all of our resin suppliers were operating under a force majeure declaration during the second quarter. Because of these issues, sell-through on our coatings products was better than sell-in, and inventories in the channel were reduced during the quarter. Due to lower than expected second quarter sales, and our expectation that material availability issues will persist but slowly improve, we are lowering our DIY sales expectation from flat to down low single digits for the full year. However, with the acceleration we saw in our propane business in the quarter, we are incrementally more optimistic and are raising our expectations to low double digit growth from high single digit for the full year for our propane business. For the decorative segment overall, we now expect growth to be in the range of 2% to 5% for the full year. With respect to innovation in the decorative segment, we continue to invest in new products and are excited to launch a new high-end line of paint in the third quarter at the Home Depot called Bear Dynasty for both DIY and pro painters. Dynasty is our most durable, stain-resistant, scuff-resistant, one-coat-high paint ever. It's low VOC, GreenGuard and LEED certified, fast drying, and has an antimicrobial, mildew-resistant paint finish. This is yet another example of how our innovation teams continue to focus on the voice of the customer to deliver leading innovation and value for both the consumer and the professional. Moving on to capital allocation, we continued our aggressive share buyback during the quarter by repurchasing 6.6 million shares for $447 million. As part of the accelerated share repurchase agreement that we executed during the quarter, we will additionally receive approximately 900,000 shares in July to complete that agreement. bringing our total shares repurchased year-to-date to 13.1 million shares for $750 million. This is approximately 5% of our outstanding share count at the beginning of the year. Underscoring our strong financial position and confidence in the future, we now anticipate deploying another $250 million in the second half of the year for share repurchases and acquisitions for a full year total of approximately $1 billion. Finally, like I did last quarter, let me give you an update on what we are experiencing with inflation and supply chain tightness. We continue to see escalating inflation across most of our cost basket, including freight, resins, TIO2, and packaging. Inbound freight container costs nearly tripled during the quarter. We now expect our all-in cost inflation to be in the high single-digit range for the full year for both our plumbing and decorative segments, with low double-digit inflation in the second half of the year. Inflation and codings will likely be in the mid-teens later in the fourth quarter. To mitigate this inflation, we have secured price increases across both segments and are taking further pricing action across our business to address these continued cost escalations. We're also working with our suppliers, customers, and internal teams to implement further productivity measures to help offset these costs. Despite the increased inflation, we still expect to achieve price-cost neutrality by year end. While cost inflation has clearly been an issue, material availability has also impacted our business. Our teams have done a tremendous job of qualifying new suppliers, developing material substitutions, and shifting production to adapt to this dynamic environment and to serve our customers. However, these raw material constraints have limited our ability to build inventory of many of our products in the channels that we serve. We anticipate material availability to slowly improve in the second half of the year, and we expect to replenish inventory to the appropriate levels over this time. The demand for our products remains strong, and with an improved outlook for plumbing based on the continued strength of both our North American and international operations, we are increasing our full-year expectations of earnings per share to be in the range of $3.65 to $3.75 per share, up from our previous expectations of $3.50 to $3.70. With that, I'll turn the call over to John for additional detail on our second quarter results. John?
spk00: Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. As Dave mentioned, my comments today will focus on adjusted performance, excluding the impact of rationalization and other one-time items. Turning to slide seven, we delivered another exceptional quarter as we capitalized on strong consumer demand, resulting in continued growth and increased backlogs. As a result, sales increased 24% with currency and net acquisitions each contributing 3% to growth. In local currency, North American sales increased 15%, or 12%, excluding acquisitions. Strong volume growth in North American faucets, showers, and spas led this outstanding performance. In local currency, international sales increased a robust 50%, or 49%, excluding acquisitions and divestitures. Gross margin was 36.3% in the quarter, up 50 basis points as we leveraged the strong volume growth. RSG&A as a percentage of sales improved 10 basis points, to 16.2% due to our operating leverage. During the quarter, certain expenses such as headcount, marketing, and travel and entertainment increased as planned. We expect SG&A's percent of sales to increase in the third and fourth quarters as these costs normalize. We delivered strong second quarter operating profit of $438 million, up $94 million, or 27% from last year. with operating margins expanding 60 basis points to 20.1%. Our EPS was $1.14 in the quarter, a 34% increase compared to the second quarter of 2020 due to volume leverage, lower interest expense, and lower share count. Turning to slide eight, plumbing growth accelerated in the quarter with sales up 53%. Currency contributed 5% to this growth, and acquisitions net of divestitures contributed another 4%. North American sales increased 47% in local currency, or 41% excluding acquisitions. Delta led this outstanding performance, delivering another quarter of robust double-digit growth. With its strong brand recognition and market leadership, Delta continues to drive strong consumer demand across all its product categories and channels. Watkins Wellness also significantly contributed to growth in the quarter, as both demand and our backlog remain strong. International plumbing sales increased 50% in local currency, with 49% excluding acquisitions and divestitures. Hansgrohe delivered robust growth as demand continues to improve across Europe and numerous other countries. Hansgrohe's key markets of Germany, China, UK, and France all grew strong double digits in the quarter. Segment operating margins expanded 230 basis points to 20.6% in the quarter, an operating profit of $274 million, up $115 million with 72%. This strong performance was driven by incremental volume, favorable mix, and cost productivity initiatives, partially offset by an unfavorable price-cost relationship and higher spend on items such as travel and entertainment, marketing, and growth initiatives. During the quarter, we also completed the divestiture of Hupa, a small shower enclosure business based in Germany. Hupa's sales were approximately 70 million euros in 2020. This transaction closed on May 31st, and net proceeds were not material. Given our second quarter results and current demand trends, we now expect plumbing segment sales growth for 2021 to be in the 22% to 24% range, up from our previous guidance of 15% to 18%. Finally, due to our improved sales outlook, we are increasing our full-year margin expectations to approximately 18.5%, up from our previous guide of approximately 18%. Turning to slide nine, decorative architectural declined 5% for the second quarter, with 6% excluding the benefit from acquisitions. Our DIY paint business declined double digits in the quarter because the healthy high-teens comp due to moderating demand and raw material supply tightness as resin plants affected by storms in the Texas Gulf Coast region in the first quarter continue to face production challenges. We expect these raw material headwinds to persist in the third quarter and now anticipate our DIY paint business to be down low single digits for the full year. To help mitigate these challenges, we are working with our existing suppliers and qualifying new sources for materials to meet the demand of our customers, which remains strong. I want to thank our supply chain teams, which have done an outstanding job managing through these challenges. Our propane business delivered strong double digits growth in the quarter as consumers are increasingly willing to allow professional pain contractors in their homes. We expect demand in this channel to remain strong and now anticipate low double digit growth for the propane business for the full year, up from our previous expectation of high single digits as propane contractors' order books continue to grow. Our built-in hardware and lighting businesses each delivered growth in the quarter as they continued to capitalize on increased consumer demand. Segment operating margins were 22.1%, and operating profit in the quarter was $188 million due to lower volume, partially offset by cost productivity initiatives. For full year 2021, we now expect decorative architectural segment sales growth will be in the range of 2 to 5%, down from 4 to 9% due to lower than expected second quarter sales and persistent raw material constraints. We continue to expect segment operating margins of approximately 19% as productivity initiatives in pricing help offset higher input costs. And turning to slide 10, Our balance sheet is strong, with net debt to EBITDA at 1.3 times. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.8 billion of balance sheet liquidity, which includes full availability of our $1 billion revolver. Working capital as a percent of sales, including our recent acquisitions, was 16.9 percent, an improvement of 120 basis points over prior year. As we discussed last quarter, We determined and annuitized our U.S. qualified defined benefit plans in the second quarter and had an approximate $100 million final cash contribution to the plans to complete this activity. This removes approximately $140 million of pension liabilities from our balance sheet and will benefit our free cash flow by approximately $50 million to reduce cash contributions starting in 2022. Also, We received approximately $166 million from the redemption of our preferred stock related to the recent sale of our former cabinet business. Finally, as Keith mentioned earlier, as of today, we repurchased 13.1 million shares in 2021 for $750 million. We expect to deploy an additional $250 million for share repurchases or acquisitions in the remainder of this year. Collectively, these actions demonstrate our confidence in our business and our commitment and ability to further strengthen our balance sheet while aggressively returning capital to our shareholders. Turning to our full-year guidance, we have summarized our updated expectations for 2021 on slide 11. Based on our second quarter performance and continued robust demand, we now anticipate overall sales growth of 14% to 16%, up from 10 to 14%, with operating margins of approximately 17.5% up from 17%. Lastly, as Keith mentioned earlier, our updated 2021 EPS estimate range of $3.65 to $3.75 represents 19% EPS growth at the midpoint of the range. This assumes a 252 million average diluted share count for the full year. Additional modeling assumptions for 2021 can be found on slide 14 in our earnings deck. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Keith.
spk10: Thank you, John. We had an outstanding second quarter, driven by our strong brands, our innovation pipelines, and most of all, our people, as demonstrated by outstanding execution by our supply chain teams. Our strong performance is demonstrates the strength of MASCO's balanced and diversified business. MASCO is a broad portfolio of lower ticket, repair and remodel oriented home improvement products. Our products are broadly distributed across geographies and channels for both consumers and professionals. Additionally, our markets remain strong and we expect home remodeling expenditures to drive growth in 2022. the fundamentals of our repair and remodel business are strong, with year-over-year home price appreciation of over 15% in May and existing home sales up over 23%. Both metrics have a strong correlation with our sales on a lag basis. And the consumer is strong, with nearly $2 trillion in savings and an increased desire to invest in their homes. Lastly, we continue to invest in our business and are well positioned for long-term growth. We are bringing new, innovative products to market, fueling our growth and expanding our leading market share. And with our leading margins and strong free cash flow, we will continue to deploy capital to reinvesting in our business, acquiring complementary bolt-on companies, and returning cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. all to drive long-term shareholder value. With that, I'll now open up the call to questions. Operator?
spk03: In order to ensure that everyone has a chance to participate, we would like to request that you limit yourself to asking one question and one follow-up question during the Q&A session. To ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press the pound keys. Well, first question comes from the line of Matthew Bally with Barclays.
spk06: Morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the questions. I could start on, I guess, DIY coatings.
spk10: It sounded like you're attributing the reduction in the revenue guide more so to supply chain than to a real change in your demand outlook. I think he said sell-through was better than sell-in. So if you could just provide a little more color on that, I guess. Have you found that demand in DIY specifically is really not that different than what you previously thought, or do you think the consumer is pulling back a little bit more than expected there as well? Thank you. Matt, I would say that demand did moderate a bit, more than we expected, but certainly material availability and other supply chain challenges did. played a role in the decline in the quarter, and, of course, we had some tough comps. The impact of the storms in Texas and the Gulf Coast region continue to limit resin supply. Really, this is an industry-wide phenomenon, and nearly all of our resins, as I mentioned, were suppliers who were operating under a force majeure declaration in the second quarter. There was a plant explosion, in addition, at a supplier that supplies our alkylated resin, but really for the industry, but that affected us. So we do expect, while they're not over yet, we do expect these material availability issues to persist in the third quarter and then slowly improve. So we now expect, as I mentioned, our sales growth to be in the range of 2% to 5%, down from our previous expectation of 4% to 9%. I would like to reiterate that our supply chain teams have done an outstanding job, and they'll continue to do so. Understood. Really helpful color there. Thank you for that. The second one is on a similar topic, but just thinking about raw material constraints broadly, it sounded like it really did constrain your ability to build inventory beyond just paint, if I heard you correctly.
spk01: Perhaps paint was most acute. But I'm curious if you could outline kind of where else beyond paint that you think demand may have been running ahead of what you were able to produce and maybe any color around the timing of when you think you can catch up from a production perspective.
spk10: Thank you. You know, it's been pretty broad-based, I think. We'd like to have more inventory in our town. You know, put it very directly. When we think about spas, we have never had a backlog of this size in spas, and the demand continues to be real robust. We're doing a good job in our international front, but there's pockets in certain products where we could afford to have some more inventory in the channel. The same is true in North American plumbing. We're getting in better shape. We're not all the way there yet, but we do expect to, throughout the back half of the year, put our inventory positions in the channel back to where they belong.
spk06: Great. Well, thank you for the call, Eric.
spk03: Our next question comes from the line of Susan McClary with Goldman Sachs.
spk11: Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Good morning, Susan. My first question is around, you know, you mentioned that as a result of some of the supply chain issues that you are seeing inventories that are obviously, you know, continuing to fall and are really leaning the channel. Can you give us some sense of what this means in terms of your ability to get those inventories back up? And is it something that potentially could kind of bleed into early 2022 now, as you think about all the headwinds that are out there?
spk10: You know, it's difficult to prognosticate on the future. We've seen, you know, more than just the Texas Gulf issue that we had in residence. There was a plant explosion, as I mentioned. But I would tell you that we intend over the back half of the year to get our inventory back in shape.
spk11: Okay. Okay. All right. My next question is around the margins in the plumbing segment. You know, you've delivered about 20 and a half or so in the first half of the year there. The guidance, though, implies that the second half will come down relative to the first half and understanding that you've got some price-cost headwinds in there and things. But can you just give us some more color on how we should be thinking about that relative step down and any thoughts on third quarter versus fourth quarter in there and some of those trends?
spk00: Yes, Susan, it's John. Maybe I'll take this one. So you're right. We obviously delivered very short margins here in the first half of the year and in the second quarter as well. And you're right, given our guide, it does imply a little bit of a step down in margin in the back half of the year. We're pleased with how we've executed so far. But as we mentioned on previous calls, we do need to put some money back into the business in the form of investments. And they'll take the form of travel and entertainment, as I mentioned, but they'll also take the form of some growth initiatives. And you may recall in some of our prior calls, we said that we thought in 2020 that we may have delayed as much as $40 million of investment spend just to make sure we appropriately contained costs as we were going through the pandemic. And so as we see things begin to improve here significantly, you know, we continue to expect that some of that spend will return. And as I mentioned in my remarks, some of that spend actually started to return in the second quarter as we began to make some investments in marketing and growth initiatives. So we believe that a lot of that spend will start to come back in the second half of the year. And that will take, you know, additional investment in our leading brands, some of the innovation that Keith mentioned in his prepared remarks and service to ensure that our customers are in, you know, full supply of our products. And so, you know, we think that will also contribute to future growth of the business to better, you know, meet our customers' needs. At the same time, you know, as we kind of alluded to in our prepared remarks, There's going to be a little bit of a price-cost headwind as we go into the back half of the year. We've always talked about a little bit of a lag in getting price and cost flowing through our P&L. And generally in the plumbing segment, it's about a two-quarter lag. And so that's the second piece that will impact the margins in the back half of the year. So those two, a little bit of an incremental spend and then also that price-cost lag. That said, we are very confident that we'll be price-cost neutral as we exit the year.
spk11: Okay, that's very helpful, caller. Thank you, and good luck.
spk03: Thanks. Our next question comes from the line of Ken Zena with KeyBank.
spk06: Good morning, everybody. Morning, Ken.
spk10: So amazing environment you guys are operating in. Could you talk to – obviously, there was a larger coding company that reported.
spk06: Is there a way for you to talk to or quantify how supply slash inventory is affecting your coding business, whether it's DIY or pro, A?
spk10: And then are you seeing, because of those constraints, are you seeing channel shifts at all within the pro, perhaps, because of – those type of constraints um from or you know limited you know availability of of coatings well i would say that our our inability to have our inventory position where we want it, say, first half compared to what we expect in the second half, had an impact on revenue. I'm going to fall short of going down specifically quantifying. That's fine. I understood. But we think that inventory is going to help us in the back half. In terms of channel shift, you know, we pride ourselves on having broad distribution across multiple channels. When you look at our – you're talking coatings now, but if we look at plumbing, we have a very strong position in retail, which is both a pro and a consumer channel. We have a leading position in trade, which is principally more oriented towards the pro, and then in e-commerce, which is mainly consumer, we have our leading position there. A similar story when we look at coatings, where we have a strong pro franchise as well as we always talk about the strong DIY. So we like our positioning of where we are in terms of broad channel distribution so that if there are particular shifts, be it pro to DIY or online to trade, et cetera, we have it covered. And I think that's a good, significant reason why we're able to perform in this dynamic environment. In addition to our strong teams that have been able to address these issues, we're where our customer wants to buy, and we're quite agnostic to these kind of shifts if they happen.
spk00: Yeah, Ken, the one thing I would add to Keith's comments is, you know, with respect specifically to the pro, you know, we'll continue to invest in that pro initiative. We think that's a really strong growth driver for us over the course of the next several years, and we and our channel partner, The Home Depot, look to continue to invest to grow the pro paint business.
spk10: Yeah, just sticking with that on a simple question, it seems like there might be, right, higher margins from pro versus DIY, and again, Could you kind of describe, it seems like these paint initiatives, I know you always have them, but this SCUF, I think is how you described it. I remember when Bear did the primer and paint, you know, one coating, that was quite a leadership introduction. Do you think these latest, you know, like the SCUF and some of the pro stuff is really able to pull in more demand on that pro due to the quality, you know, compared to perhaps the other you know competitors thank you we're we're really proud of the bear product development teams uh research and development you know we uh we have been on the leading edge of development really since that that company started and paint primer and one was a big one we also work on commercial um development as it relates to the color selection center and being able to match colors and those sorts of things. So this dynasty introduction is one of another of a long line of things that we have demonstrated the ability to do and will continue to do. Whether or not this is going to be as groundbreaking as paint and primer in one, we'll see. But this is our best paint ever, no question about it, in terms of scuff resistance, the number of one-coat hides that we have, the coatings that we have on it in terms of mildew and antibacterial and all those other sorts of things. So this is a very big deal for us, and I'm extremely proud of it. And I'm also, it's what we expect, and that's what we're going to continue to do. Thank you.
spk03: Your next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.
spk10: Morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Keith, John, I just wanted to, you know, first a quick follow-up along the same lines of kind of the cadence that was asked about margins, I guess, aside specifically with respect to DECARC. Is the thought, given some of the supply constraints you're talking about, that 3Q ends up looking a little similar to 2Q and then a bit of a rebound in 4Q? Or should we expect more even performance between 3Q and 4Q? Because it seems like overall the back half is expected plus or minus flat in that segment.
spk00: Yeah, Mike, good question. So as we look at the back half of the year, we think it's going to be a pretty even performance across the last six months. You know, based on what we're seeing out in the marketplace, based on the supply that Keith was just talking about and understanding how seasonally things flow through in terms of demand. So, you know, it looks to us right now like a pretty even back half of the year.
spk04: Okay, thanks. My second question is on capital allocation. It's great to see the buyback and the increased guide.
spk10: It does seem like, just broadly speaking, there's been an uptick in M&A. I was wondering if you could comment about just specifically in your segments, there It seems like there may be some assets that shake loose. What are you seeing in the pipeline, and what are you seeing in terms of competition for deals? Because it seems like right now your guide is still predicated mostly on buybacks. Really, Mike, not a whole lot of change in terms of what we're seeing. It's been pretty similar to what we've seen now for the better part of a year. What we have and what we're doing here at Masco is we have a new deal team. We have a new business development team. That's been moved under John's leadership, and they're building momentum, clearly, and doing a good job both in terms of cultivation as well as executing the deals. The valuations, I would say, as is broadly understood and seen, is still quite high compared to historical averages, and that really, I think, informs and was a key driver of our strategy of focusing on bolt-ons where we need to have synergies. So the pipeline is robust. We're moving various assets through that pipeline in terms of evaluation. We continue to do that, and it continues to look robust. Having said that, we're patient, and we will make sure that these acquisitions the right strategic fit for us, like you see with WorkTools Internationals or with Krause and Plumbing on the e-commerce side that bolsters our leadership in that channel. So we're going to continue with our strategy. We've got an outstanding team that's working it, and we expect to continue with this type of deal flow.
spk00: Mike, maybe just a couple of extra comments to supplement Keith. You know, I would say that, you know, the three acquisitions that we did at the end of last year are all on plan. I mean, so, you know, the working teams that, you know, the integration has gone well. The interaction with our existing businesses has gone very well. And so, you know, they're right on the business case. And so we're very, very pleased with those results. And maybe some, you know, as Keith was talking about, you know, there's a lot of activity. The pipeline is robust. And part of the reason we've been playing at the lower, you know, the smaller the bolt-ons is we see better value down there at this point. You know, as Keith mentioned, very, very robust pricing in some of the larger transactions that we've seen in the industry. And so we just think there's better value at the lower end of the middle market right now. And so we're going to continue to play down there, I think. Okay, great. Good to hear. Thank you.
spk03: Our next question comes from the line of Phil Eng with Jefferies.
spk04: Hey, good morning, everyone. I guess a bigger picture, looking at the 2022, you do have tougher comps, certainly a lot of favorable secular drivers. Do you see your growth algorithm returning back to that mid-single-digit range for the overall comp next year? And how do you think about growth in your DIY paint business next year?
spk10: Well, there's no really returning to the growth algorithm. We haven't changed it. Our long-term growth algorithm is the same. It's 3% to 5% organic growth 1% to 3% acquisition growth. We're committed to buyback in that range of 2% to 4% of our shares, and that puts us into that 10% EPS growth through cycles on average, plus the dividend yield of 1% to 2%, so 11% to 12% return on our name. So that hasn't changed, and we believe strongly in that. We believe that we will do that and execute that from the 2021 levels. And we'll do it in a way that we continue to expand our margins. And, you know, as we've talked before, we're not talking multiple hundreds of basis points of margins improvement, but we continue to have very solid drop-down in both of our businesses, call it, in that 25% to 30% range, and we don't see that changing. And we're going to continue to generate strong free cash flow and reinvest that in our business and return it to the shareholder in a very careful manner that drives shareholder value. So no real change in our algorithm, and we expect growth to continue. What we're seeing in our product demand continues to be strong. And as I've talked about consistently and continue to believe it, and we're seeing it, The millennial entry into the home market, moving out of the more congested cities into larger homes as families form, et cetera, is a real deal, and that's a tailwind for us.
spk04: Any color on the outlook for DIY next year?
spk00: Yeah, Phil, I guess, you know, from my perspective, I think of it more as a low single-digit growth for DIY, you know, because of the trends that Keith just cited. I mean, I do think that there's a good fundamental underlying demand out there driven by these trends. And so, you know, returning to that kind of pre-pandemic, which we've been guiding, you know, low single-digit growth for DIY is what we expect for next year.
spk04: That's super helpful. And then any color on how your channel is performing? You know, we've seen some – data points out there that suggest retail might be seeing some normalization of trends after a pretty strong year and perhaps a pickup in wholesale. Just curious what you're seeing out there in terms of the channels and what that means for Maskell, you know, appreciating you're very diversified.
spk10: Yeah, well, that's probably a good question for our channel partners, but I'll tell you that in general, we're seeing strong demand across the board. Certainly in plumbing, we maintain our leadership in the retail space. Very strong position and strong growth in trade. International, we've seen broad pickup across our international businesses, particularly in our main markets in Central Europe and in China. So that's strong. So it's really broad-based in terms of demand drivers, channels, geographies. Good spot.
spk00: Yeah, Phil, maybe a little bit more color to Keith's comments. I'd say growth has probably been a little bit stronger on our trade side of our business. Partly because if you think about the second quarter of last year, most of those outlets were closed. And so that growth here in the second quarter has been quite strong. So maybe just a little bit more color there for you. Okay.
spk04: Super helpful, guys.
spk03: Our next question comes from the line of Deepa Raghavan with Wells Fargo Securities.
spk02: Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I'll start out with a broad question. As things start to return to normalcy post-COVID, especially in the last month and a half or so, any trends or end markets that surprised you to the positive or perhaps underpaced your expectations, you can start there.
spk10: Thank you. On the positive, our international growth is really solid. That was nice to see and probably, I would say, even a little more robust than we expected. So that was, broadly speaking, that was positive in terms of the overall.
spk02: Okay. Any trends that underpays your expectations?
spk00: You know, I'd say, you know, deeply, you know, there's a couple things that continue to, you know, I think trended favorably for us. You know, the demand for spots has been, you know, consistently strong over the course of the last several quarters. And that demand continued here into Q2. And so we've got, you know, good luck for the balance of the year at that business. And then even like we just mentioned, our North American trade plumbing business was extremely strong and e-commerce as well. Those trends continue to remain very strong for us. So we're very pleased with how the businesses are performing, you know, pretty much across the board here in the second quarter.
spk10: In terms of on the downside, DIY paint was a little lower than we had thought. You know, there was some significant supply chain constrictions that we didn't anticipate. But our propane was stronger than we expected. So when we look at
spk02: you know say say where we're gonna we're gonna finish 21 compared to 19 in paint we're still up mid-teens so it's it's a healthy the demands are the man strong but uh obviously diy paint was a little lighter than i thought it would be got it uh my follow-up is on your price casting question um how much of this inflation that you're talking about uh in 2021 you are going to take into 2022 given the lag um should we think about when a price cost heading into 2022 would turn positive, like early 2022 probably turns positive price cost. Am I right in thinking that way? And two, how much is there a quantification of how much inflation you're carrying into 2022 if you snap the line here on inflation? Thanks.
spk00: Yeah, Deepa, we probably won't go into that level of specificity that you're requesting on how much we carry into 2022. But to your general point, Could, you know, as we look going to 2022, see a little bit of tailwind because we've got price and cost that have moderated, if they indeed just stay at the current levels? Yeah, I mean, that's definitely a possibility as we go into the first part of next year.
spk10: I think the main point we'd like to make and leave with is price-cost neutrality at the end of the year. And by that, I mean that we will have actions in place, productivity improvements, working with our suppliers to drive costs down, material substitutions, and, of course, price. We will have that in place at the end of the year. That matches the inflation that we're currently seeing. So to your point about snapping the line, at the end of the year we'll be price-cost neutral.
spk03: Got it. That's pretty helpful. Thanks so much. Our next question comes from the line of Keith Hughes with Truist.
spk07: Thank you. Within decorative architectural products, could you just comment on the performance of Kitzler Liberty Hardware and any kind of growth number you're seeing from them in the quarter and expectations for the second half?
spk00: Yeah, Keith, both Liberty and Kitzler grew in the second quarter. So, you know, they're continuing the trend. As we laid out at our investor day in 2019, particularly for Kitzler, We kind of identified 2020 as the year for it to return to gold, and that's exactly what's going on in that business through the end of the second quarter. So we feel good about how Kichler and Jay are driving that business, and so we're pleased with that. As we look in the back half of the year, you may recall on our third quarter call last year, we did cite the fact that Liberty had a very, very strong quarter. And so, you know, they're going to be up against some tough comps as they go into the back half of the year. That said, you know, the team down at Liberty is looking to continue to drive that business, and we're pushing them for growth. So, you know, we'll continue to see how that plays out. But we do know that they've got a very tough comp here in the third quarter coming up.
spk07: Okay, and the final question, I know we've talked about inflation a lot, but if you, in 20, based on your expectations right now in 21, if we add up all the pricing you've got, all the raw material pricing you're seeing, will price costs in dollars in 21 be negative? I know the run rate sounds like it's going to be a parity in the year, but what about for the full year?
spk00: Yeah, Keith, I would guide you to think that, yeah, that we will be negative, you know, because, you know, as we've been saying, you know, we think we'll be price-cost neutral toward the end of the year. So, you know, I think we've got a little bit of price cost to absorb here in the back half of the year before we get to that neutral position. And so, you know, because of that and because of what we experienced in the second quarter, you know, we will be price cost negative for the full year. Okay. Thank you.
spk03: Our next question comes from the line of David McGregor with Longbow Research.
spk09: Yes. Good morning, everyone. You mentioned the investment back into the product and into the marketing, and I'm just wondering on DIY, as we head into a period of tougher compares, how are retailer expectations evolving at all with regards to your level of promotional channel support?
spk10: Well, you know, again, that's a decision that's made by our channel partner, and obviously we support that and we develop that strategy together, but ultimately it's their decision. I would say that our promotional activity is about the same, and we'll finish out this year at about the same as it was last year. Generally speaking, our channel partner likes to compete on quality and service and brand because we're leaders in all three of those categories, and I don't see that changing much.
spk09: Okay. Second question, just with respect to pricing, How much pricing should be achievable, I guess, through just new product introductions? It sounds like you've got a pretty substantial new product introduction calendar lined up here. I'm just wondering how much pricing you should be able to get from that as opposed to price increases on legacy products.
spk10: Yeah, you know, it varies across category. And, you know, it really is from a segment or from a channel to channel. There's differences. But I think if you think about it in terms of general price increases across all of our categories for the year and the high single-digit range for the full year, I think that's where we'll be. And then in terms of new products, it's really not so much a price increase, it's really pricing for value, and it depends on new products. Some of the new stuff that we're coming out on the high end with Axor that I talked about in my prepared remarks and in Breezo in high-end plumbing, that is a very high-priced segment that has good margin with it. In other cases, where we're launching in a leaner, Maybe lower price point segment, there wouldn't be as much, let's say, pricing, if you will. So it varies, but clearly the lifeblood of our system here is innovation, and we continue to drive that, as you heard from all of our new product introductions that we have in play at the moment, and that will continue. Thanks, Keith.
spk03: Our next question comes from the line of Derek Chamal. with Loop Capital.
spk08: Great. Thanks for taking my question. I'm just curious on the propane side, maybe a little bit more qualitative, but is your sense that that segment is back to quote-unquote normal levels given the constraints of the pandemic last year and homeowners' hesitancy in letting contractors into their homes?
spk00: Yeah, it feels to us, Eric, like it's at normal levels and it's continuing to grow. That's what, you know, we'd like to see out of that business. And so we feel like, you know, we're in a really good position to continue to the growth of that business as we continue to invest in Feed in the Street and relationships with contractors and getting more share of wallet with existing contractors. So, you know, we feel really good about how that growth is developing here.
spk08: Okay, thanks. And then just on Watkins, just given the strength that we saw in the quarter, you know, you had headwinds last year given, you know, the production issues in Mexico and some of the regulations that the government was putting in place there due to COVID. You know, just any color on if you're back to normal, it seems like you are, and, you know, just the capacity in Watkins and what the plan is there, just getting the strength in the business.
spk10: Yeah, we're definitely starting to get back on our feet, and the production system is dialed in, and we'll continue to increase our output. But, boy, demand is strong, and our backlog continues to be at record levels. We have the aging population in America and clearly a more tuned-in population as it relates to overall wellness, both physical, emotional, and mental health. This is a tool that really aids that. So we think there's some fundamental tailwinds here. And as we do across our entire business, we look at capacity and capacity expansion, and I would expect that we'll be adding capacity here. Thanks again.
spk03: Our next question comes from the line of Adam Baumgardner with Zellman.
spk01: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just curious on the paint side with raw materials, it wasn't a major call out this quarter. How impactful were higher raw materials in 2Q? And is there a way to think about it that the back half is going to be where you feel the brunt of the increases?
spk00: Yeah, so there is modest headwind in the Q2, but the more impactful part of the price-cost relationship will be felt in the back half of the year, Adam, on that one. I think we keep mentioning we're continuing to see escalation in costs, not only in the resin side, But on TIO2 and packaging and transportation and logistics has been going up, so there's a lot of cost pressures that we're seeing there. But, you know, as we continue to say, you know, we do think that we'll continue to have pricing conversations, and we do believe we can exit the year at a, you know, price-cost neutral level.
spk01: Got it. Thanks. And then just sticking with paint, you know, you gave last quarter in one queue DIY was up in the teens. You kind of talked about double-digit declines. Can you give us what that looks like year to date just so we can kind of, you know, forecast for the back half?
spk00: Year to date, I don't know if I've got those numbers, but at my fingertips.
spk10: We're thinking about downloads, single digits for the year. Okay. Thanks.
spk03: Our next question comes from the line of Eric Bossard with Cleveland Research.
spk10: In the decorative architectural segment, curious on the sell-in expectations in the back half of the year. I know Kiki commented you thought you'd make progress on inventory in the back half, but do you expect to ship in more, and how does that link between your ability and the demand from your retail customers to bring in more inventory? That's directly linked. It's the relationship between that. the retail demand and the POS and our production capabilities. And as we believe these challenges will get relieved over the course of the year, that we'll be able to build inventory in the channel. You know, we also have a little bit of benefit from the Dynasty load-in. So does the net of that mean that you commented that the sell-in was less than the sell-through in the second quarter? Is there a path for that to reverse in the back half of the year or for you to make that up in the back half of the year or what should we expect in terms of the relationship between those two? Yes, that's right. We do expect to build inventory in the back half. That's helpful. And then secondly, in terms of the sell-through momentum in paint for the back half of the year, is the expectation that it looks similar to the experience of 2Q or or that it improves relative to 2Q, how should we think about that?
spk00: Yeah, I think it would be similar to 2Q2, Eric, from what we're seeing right now in the market. Perhaps it will up a little bit, maybe even a little bit better in the second half. Okay. Thank you.
spk03: Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.
spk10: Yeah, thanks, guys. I just want to clarify one thing with respect to your comment about sell through being a little bit better than sell-in. Typically, when you've got supply shortages and lack of inventory on the shelves, There's a sense that demand is materially better than what you were able to provide. But you actually said that you thought that demand had weakened in DIY more than you had thought. And so I was curious as to how you know that. How did you know that demand moderated if you didn't have actually enough product available? to sell and so you know you actually feel like you could have sold more if you have more product you're trying to reconcile those two um you know was it that you had an inventory decline particularly severe in like your most popular categories but then in some other skews you just simply undersold your expectations just trying to understand that a little bit better and where you think the customers actually bought if they didn't buy your product um because it seems like you know these are industry-wide supply chain um challenges Yeah, you know, there was a slight impact of lost sales due to lower inventories, but I don't think we were missing a ton of sales due to stock-out conditions. So my point on the inventory – sell-through mismatch is that there's an opportunity for us to build inventory and to have better service, but I'm not so sure. I wouldn't tag a whole lot of lost sales onto the inventory position. It's more of an inventory being lower than we want. Certainly there was some of that, but not a whole lot. Okay, that's clear. Thank you for that. And then secondly, Keith, you talked about how there's a lag historically to poem price appreciation and to R&R demand. But clearly, if there's any one particular metric in the housing market that has completely blown away any historical comp, it is the home price appreciation, the rapidity of it, the abruptness of it, and the magnitude that we've seen already. And I'm curious as to how you think the impact on R&R may be different as a result of this abruptness and magnitude. Do you think that... You know, it may manifest itself a little bit more quickly. Do you think it may manifest itself more at the high end or certain large ticket versus smaller ticket? Just wondering if you could give us some color on how you're thinking about that now. Well, I think a couple things. For sure, when a family's asset in their home is worth more, they're more likely to spend it to remodel it. And when you look at the effect of COVID, and I think that while certainly there are some waning impacts that will go away, there are some impacts here that are staying. And that is really how we believe the consumer is viewing their home, that there will not be a 100% return to work. And the environment of the home is different. People are doing more things in their home, they're doing them differently, and they're spending more time in their home. So we think there's a couple lasting things here in that these are catalysts and part of the reason why we're so robust and so happy with how we positioned our portfolio with regards to our price point, where we enjoy small projects, do-it-yourself, and we're clearly part of the large projects that are done by the professional. we're in in markets in europe that are that are pulling up and we're obviously well penetrated here in north america so the home price appreciation is a very strong indicator of a robust diy market as is the changing view of the consumer as it relates to the purpose of their home great appreciate it thanks guys your last question comes from the line of michael rehalt with jp morgan
spk06: Hi, thanks. Appreciate you squeezing me in. Clearly, you know, an interesting quarter. You know, I was curious, a lot of focus on the paint side. I was hoping to get a little bit more breakout of the North American plumbing business. If we could talk to, and I apologize if I missed this earlier in the call, you know, talk to the trends that you've seen in retail and You know, maybe things closer to the DIY spectrum versus wholesale channels and, you know, how the trends have progressed there. You know, maybe comparing it to the, obviously, the DIY and pro in pink.
spk10: Well, real strong trade business for us in the past quarter, and we expect that to continue. you know, people are more comfortable with those coming into their home for longer time. So it's where in the throes of the pandemic, maybe you'd let an appliance repair person in for a quick repair, but you certainly wouldn't want someone in for a major remodel. That's changing. And that principally, not totally, but principally flows through our trade channel. So we're seeing a nice pickup in the trade channel. Having said that, the dynamic of more and more pros buying in retail is very real. certainly seeing good foot traffic in retail, and our e-commerce business continues to do very well, and our acquisition, as John spoke about it, of Krause is really going well. We've continued to invest in that. For example, we just launched a Delta-branded Syncs online, utilizing the Krause's offering with the Delta brand. That's real leverage, and that's going well. So as I said in my prepared remarks, we are seeing broad-based, solid market demand and growth, international, domestic, trade, retail, e-commerce. We're really hitting on all cylinders.
spk09: Okay, I appreciate that.
spk06: Maybe just for the second question, to take a step back, you know, maybe you could just give us a sense of the e-commerce as a possible even as a percent of revenue across your two different segments. Obviously, you know, it lends itself a lot more to the plumbing side, you know, decorative and in particular paint, a heavier product, maybe more difficult to ship but maybe just give us a state of where you are in both segments and where you think you might be able to take the business over the next two or three years.
spk00: Yeah, Mike, it's John. And e-commerce has been a good growth vehicle for us over the course of the last several years, and actually it's grown quite significantly. So if you think about 2019, our e-commerce sales as a percent of our total sales were roughly 5%. And in 2020, that grew nicely. We finished 2020 at about 9%. If you break that down by segment, you know, our plumbing product sales were roughly 12% on the e-commerce platform or channel. And as you might expect, as you kind of alluded to in your question, a little bit lower than that in the decorative architectural segment, about 4% because of all the things you cited, you know, Color selection is a challenge for people still to order paint online. Though we do have, I would say, that the Bayer team has done a nice job of investing in shipping and distribution and fulfillment. And so, you know, that's not going to be a limiter to our ability to transact online. It's more of the consumer choosing to select the color online than anything else. And as we look forward, we think we're well-positioned to continue to grow our e-commerce presence. Because if you consider plumbing products, they're packaged perfectly to ship onesies, twosies to consumers as they wear their faucets or showerheads online. And so we think we're in a great position to do that. The folks down at Delta, have done a great job of adding the capability to Jackson Distribution Center to fulfill online. So we feel really good about how we were set up to serve plumbing growth going forward. And to the extent that the paint continues to become more selected online, we're well positioned to continue to fulfill there as well. So we really like how we're set up as this trend continues to grow here in North America.
spk06: Great. Thank you.
spk00: Yep.
spk05: I'd like to thank all of you for joining us on the call today and for your continued interest in MASCO. This concludes today's call. Thank you.
spk03: Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.
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