Mativ Holdings, Inc.

Welcome to Mative's fourth quarter earnings conference call. Hosting the call today from Mative is Julie Chattel, Chief Executive Officer. She is joined by Andrew Wamser, Chief Financial Officer, and Mark Checkernell, Director of Investor Relations. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay later this afternoon. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star one on your touchtone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing the pound key. If you should require operator assistance, please press star zero. We ask that you please pick up your handset to allow optimal sound quality. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Mr. Chekhanow. You may begin.

Thank you and good morning. I'm Mark Chekhanow, Director of Investor Relations at Matters. Thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter 2022 earnings results. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that the comments included in today's conference call include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from the results suggested by these comments for a number of reasons, which are discussed in more detail in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Some financial measures discussed during this call are non-GAAP financial measures, Reconciliations of these measures to the closest gap measures are included in the appendix of this presentation and the earnings release. Unless otherwise stated, financial and operational metric comparisons are to the prior year period. The earnings release is available on our website at ir.maddiv.com, as are the slides for today's presentation. You can download the slides and or click through these slides at your own pace during the call using the webcast interface. To clarify some aspects of how MATA results were reported and how we will be discussing them, we would first remind everyone that the SWM and MENA merger closed on July 6, 2022. Thus, the fourth quarter reported results reflect the combined company for the full period. However, reported results for the full year only reflect the combined results for the periods after the merger, while the first half of 2022 and all of 2021 reported results reflect only the legacy SWM results. As a result, year-over-year comparisons reflected the addition of the NENA operations and typically resulted in large reported year-over-year increases in sales and profits. On today's call, though, and in our earnings release, we will provide some comments referring to comparable performance to illustrate how our results compare to prior year periods on a like-for-like basis. These figures are shown in tables in our earnings release and the appendix of this presentation, as well as full reconciliations. As previously disclosed, MATTER reports results in two reporting segments, Advanced Technical Materials, or ATM, and Fiber-Based Solutions, or FBS. ATM is essentially comprised of the Legacy SWM Advanced Materials and Structures segment and the Legacy NENA Technical Products segment, while FBS is essentially comprised of the Legacy SWM Engineered Papers segment and the Legacy NENA Fine Papers and Packaging segment. Please follow up with us for any further needed clarifications, as we want to make sure you understand our business trends, financial results, and reporting processes. With that, I'll turn the call over to Julie.

Thanks, Mark. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. We have a lot to cover today. In addition to our normal quarterly results and highlights, a view of the current operating environment, and some commentary on what we see going forward, we will also share some additional color on our newly aligned strategic framework. This work stream is the culmination of months of rigorous assessments since the close of the merger. We've worked with our board and our leadership team and recently shared this messaging and direction with our employees. We are excited to now bring it to the investment community to help establish and build a strong MADIS identity. Let's start with Q4 results. On our last call, we indicated fourth quarter EBITDA would be consistent with third quarter results of $93 million, and that is where we landed. For the quarter, that represents 30% growth compared to last year. This also puts MADIS at $370 million of EBITDA in 2022 on a combined basis. Additionally, we remain confident in the resilience of our portfolio, near-term cost synergies, as a controllable profit catalyst and longer-term value creation opportunities ahead for MATIV. I'd like to touch on a few key fourth quarter highlights. First, this was another strong quarter of top-line gains with constant currency organic growth of 6% driven by disciplined pricing actions. Consistent with our strategy, our growth platforms of release liners and protective solutions, delivered the highest growth in the portfolio. Second, price versus cost has been a theme throughout 2022 as manufacturers battle raw material inflation and pass prices downstream. During the quarter, pricing exceeded input cost increases by over $35 million on a comparable basis for the combined company. I'm pleased with the team's pricing discipline and agility as we implemented new approaches to pricing throughout 2022. And third, we delivered as expected on synergy execution, exiting the year with a little over $20 million of executed synergies, most of which will be realized and hit the P&L in 2023. We are highly focused on synergy capture. as our $65 million Synergy plan is largely within our control and offers built-in profit improvement regardless of external factors. I want to commend our global operating teams and our transformation office leaders for parallel passing this high-value set of opportunities while navigating a very dynamic macro environment. Beyond Synergy delivery, we've made tremendous strides in all facets of integration, from finance and accounting to HR and IT to organizational design and operations. We know integration can create a risk of disruption when executed at scale, and I can confidently say our thoughtful planning and discipline has paid off with a relatively smooth process in our first six months together. Beyond our mat of walls is a fairly choppy economy. There are mixed signals on the direction of inflation, and indications of softening demand, at least in the near term, from customer destocking. Concerns of a recession coupled with inventory drawdowns from customers who built excess inventories during supply chain uncertainties are impacting manufacturers and clouding near-term visibility. While we have confidence in the resilience of our portfolio during periods of soft economic conditions, we do expect some near-term impact, particularly in Q1, before order patterns are expected to begin to normalize in the second quarter and even more so in the second half of the year. Looking at the quarter and current operating environment, it is definitely a dynamic time with several drivers influencing the global economic climate. In some respects, inflation seems to be cooling, and we are seeing some moderation in both prices and forecasts of key inputs like pulp, resin, and energy. However, indications of continued interest rate increases continue to weigh on sentiment. We are also seeing reduced demand as customers take down inventory levels. Coming out of a period of supply chain uncertainty and availability, many customers built much higher than normal levels of safety stock in an effort to assure supply and a willingness to carry excess working capital. As supply chain constraints ease and concerns about availability lessen, customers are aggressively working to reduce excess inventories. Additionally, customers are also cautious about the direction of demand. We are seeing signs of demand slowing, particularly in Europe and in certain product categories, and uncertainty about the duration and degree of demand contraction. Most customers that are destocking have indicated a general expectation of normalization by the end of the second quarter. However, it's then clear what level of demand that normal environment will entail. With respect to our business, we are seeing the most impact of inventory destocking in our packaging and specialty papers and markets, as well as industrial and areas tied to construction and automotive. These areas also tend to correlate more with the broader economy. For us, this means focusing on internal elements we can control in this uncertain environment, including working capital reductions, operating costs, synergy execution, and innovation. Looking at other areas of demand trends and indications from customers, filtration was a mixed bag. There is some softness in transportation filtration as consumers may be delaying aftermarket filter replacements in response to inflation-driven spending pressures. In addition, we are seeing tough comps on some COVID-driven products, like face masks and home air filters, as COVID's concerns ease. Water and industrial process filtration sales performed better, as we would typically expect more resilience in these categories. Release liners delivered a very strong quarter, as demand remained healthy, with sales up over 20%. Our diversified offering of release liners serving industrial and consumer markets continues to be a leader in the portfolio, and we expect it to remain resilient in the face of potential economic volatility. Similarly, protective solution sales were up over 20%, and we are also confident in the resilience of this business, as it relies far more on global product penetration and consumer adoption that we believe will remain largely intact in a challenged environment. Also, demand for engineered papers remained relatively predictable, with minimal impact from inventory destocking at the customer level. We know there are various end markets and product categories across the enterprise, but to summarize destocking as a broad topic, again, we saw some impact in the fourth quarter, which will likely peak in the first quarter, before normalizing by mid-year. And with respect to demand, we see some softness, mostly in very economically correlated product areas, and expect resilience in several others. We continue to believe that over 60% of our portfolio should exhibit recession resilience. That segues into one of my favorite topics, synergies. In addition to the long-term value we can create with the merger, We have solid plans in place and are executing on $65 million of cost synergies, which I believe represents an insurance policy for profit growth in 2023. Andy will elaborate shortly, but I want to hit a few highlights. First, we are living up to our commitment to end 2022 with at least $20 million of executed synergies. As you recall, this is one of our goals. as well as executing half of the plan a year from close, meaning over $30 million in run rate by mid 2023. We remain on track for this as well. Realized synergies that will hit our P&L in 2023 create a full year profit growth buffer against the impact of the first half destocking or potential further economic turbulence. And perhaps the most appealing aspect of these actions is that they are within our control. We are laser focused on synergy realization. Our entire company is heavily incented on synergy delivery, and our execution thus far gives me confidence in successfully achieving our objectives. With that, I'll turn it over to Andy to review the quarter's financials and comment on 2023. Thanks, Julie.

As Mark referenced earlier, Reported consolidated MADF results reflect a merged company for the fourth quarter, but only for the legacy SWM in the prior year, thus making year-over-year reported growth very large and comparisons less meaningful. So my comments will try to focus on current business trends, margin comparisons on a comparable or a like-for-like basis, and price versus input cost trends for the business as a whole. In addition, The full year reported results only reflect the merged business after the July close and legacy SWM for only the first two quarters, also limiting comparability. We have provided extensive reconciliations in their earnings release to help with comparisons on a like-for-like basis for both the fourth quarter and the full year, but I will focus my comments here mostly on the quarter. Total fourth quarter sales were $660 million, with organic growth at 6% on a constant currency basis and 2% with the impact of currency. The 6% growth was split between 9% growth in ATM and 3% growth in FBS, with the best sales performance coming from release liners and protective solutions, as Julie discussed. Price increases versus last year drove all growth metrics. Going forward, rather than detailing adjusted operating profit and EBITDA, we will center our comments on EBITDA. Those you will see in the release, we reconcile GAAP operating profit to adjusted operating profit and then to EBITDA by segment and on a consolidated basis. For adjusted EBITDA on a comparable basis, we were up 30% to over 92 million in the fourth quarter with margin expansion of 310 basis points. Growth was driven by over 35 million of favorable price versus cost. These gains were partially offset by the impact of softer volumes and some other inflationary pressures like freight and distribution. Overall, Fourth quarter performance was encouraging from a margin standpoint and on a price-cost perspective, and we have made great strides this year recouping inflationary pressures. To give some perspective on the magnitude of some of the input cost inflation that we saw in the fourth quarter, total pulp and fiber costs were up approximately 10 million. Resins and plastics were up nearly another 10 million, and energy increased nearly 15 million. But again, we more than offset these increases with pricing actions. Looking at the segments in the fourth quarter with the same life-for-life view, ATM adjusted EBITDA was up 45%, with margin expansion of 460 basis points. The margin improvement was primarily driven by favorable price versus cost. For FDS, adjusted EBITDA was up 7%, with margin expansion of 140 basis points. Price cost was favorable here as well. We also want to highlight that early-stage SG&A synergies contributed to margin expansion across both segments. Moving to non-operating items, interest expense was approximately $27 million in the quarter, and approximately 75 percent of our total debt is set at fixed rates. Other expense was $5 million in the quarter, And while we normally wouldn't comment on this line item, we note that the rise in the Euro impacted our balance sheet exposures during the quarter. These expenses are non-cash, mark-to-market entries. This item had been moderately favorable through most of 2022, but reversed in the fourth quarter. Based on the forward Euro curve, we don't expect material expenses like this repeat in 2023. Bottom line, adjusted EPS was 56 cents for the quarter. Highlighting just a few metrics for the full year on a comparable basis, constant currency organic sales growth was 11% and was fairly even across both segments. And for the year, adjusted EBITDA was 370 million, also up 11%. Lastly, for the terms of our credit facility, Net leverage ended the year at 3.7 times, in line with the expectations we discussed on the last call. Net leverage benefited from the receivables securitization program we initiated in December to lower our borrowing costs. Recall that our credit agreement net leverage includes adjustment for plan synergies on top of our combined trailing 12-month EBITDA. As we look into 2023, Let's take a moment to recap where we stand on synergy delivery. To outline the $25 million of incremental 2023 synergy realization we referenced, it is comprised of $15 million from actions taken by the end of 2022 and another $10 million from expected continued synergy execution in 2023. To help reconcile these figures from our $20 million exit run rate for 2022, 5 million of those executed synergies hit the P&L in the second half of 2022. This leaves an incremental 15 million flow through in 2023, just from the actions already taken through this past December. The majority of these synergies were SG&A reductions. Next, we said we'd execute half of the 65 million in synergies within a year of closing. And that will be a mix of continued SG&A optimization, coupled with supply chain and procurement synergies. Taking into account the timing of first half execution, as well as second half projects, we expect 2023 actions to result in another 10 plus million of synergy flow through this year, bringing our incremental realization to the 25 million level in 2023. Hopefully that gives some color on synergy timing. It is consistent with the expectations we originally outlined. To give some examples of early savings we have executed, we have the elimination of duplicative executive positions and other public company costs. We have insurance savings, benefits consolidation, elimination of redundant professional third-party services that support HR, legal, IT, and tax, as well as some procurement and freight optimization. Our teams are working diligently to not only execute on the originally targeted synergies, but also identify new cost savings and commercial opportunities and keep building a pipeline of ideas for vetting and implementation. With respect to input costs, commodity resins like polypropylene retreated throughout 2022, and based on current industry forecasts, are expected to be fairly stable in 23. At these levels, resin costs should be favorable versus prior year throughout most of 23. Polk prices appear to be coming off their multi-year highs and are expected to trend lower. However, they aren't projected to be meaningfully lower versus prior year until the second half of 23. Energy costs have also moderated, especially in Europe, where the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused substantial volatility. We have locked in much of our energy needs for 2023 and are pleased that we did not lock in prices at peak levels, as they have since backed off significantly, but we still expect higher energy spend in 2023 compared to 2022. Factoring in all aspects of inflation, including chemicals, freight, and other materials, We see approximately $100 million of cost increases. However, we expect to more than cover those increases with pricing actions. We want to be clear that we are optimistic that we can deliver solid profit growth on top of the combined $370 million in EBITDA that we generated in 2022. Those incremental 25 million of synergies would put the 2023 baseline at nearly 400 million of EBITDA. We consider this a reasonable baseline assumption. However, as we have noted, it is a challenge to provide a range around this level given the uncertainty around near-term destocking and the broader macro demand outlook. And as I just referenced, we would also expect to more than offset input cost inflation with price increases. Considering all these factors and limited visibility, we don't want to be too aggressive or potentially too conservative at this moment. Rather, after first quarter or mid-year might be a better opportunity to clarify an EBITDA outlook for the full year once we have better line of sight. From a quarterly perspective, factoring in the peak impact of destocking, first quarter EBITDA is likely to be the lowest of the year and not indicative of the business run rate EBITDA we would expect in the following quarters. Furthermore, we did experience some isolated inefficiencies at a few plants during the fourth quarter, which will have a negative impact on first quarter results as higher cost inventories flow through the P&L. Lastly, There have been strikes in France related to the government's efforts to increase the retirement benefits age requirements, which resulted in some lost sales and inefficiencies thus far in the first quarter within our EP business, which will also contribute to a soft quarter. While we ordinarily would not comment on analysts' estimates, these circumstances we think it's fair to say that the full year 2023 consensus EBITDA estimate of nearly 390 million appears reasonable to help with model building we also offer a few high level estimates to help translate an adjusted EBITDA estimate into adjusted earnings and cash flow first Pure depreciation is expected to be approximately $100 million based on our latest evaluations of PP&E, which was stepped up as part of the merger accounting. This figure excludes the purchase accounting amortization we normally exclude from our adjusted financial metrics. In addition, stock-based compensation expense, which is another non-cash item excluded from adjusted EBITDA, is expected to be approximately $15 million. So to go from EBITDA to adjusted operating profit, you would deduct these two non-cash items totaling $115 million. Second, based on current and forward rates of our debt structure, interest expense should be just north of $100 million. In addition, due to the accounting treatment of our new receivable securitization program, approximately $7 million of additional interest will actually be recorded in other expense. Additional components from other income and expense are difficult to project but are not currently expected to be material based on forward rates of the euro. Lastly, we would expect a tax rate in the low 20% range, JV income in the $5 million range, and a share count of approximately 55 million shares. With respect to cash flow, we would expect working capital to be more normalized in 2023 especially with muted sales growth and potentially deflating input costs. For CapEx, you can assume approximately 90-plus million. Now back to Julie to wrap up.

Thanks, Andy. Before we wrap up, I'd like to spend a few minutes highlighting some of the work we've done around our strategy and identity. Since the merger closed, we have dedicated significant resources to refining our enterprise strategy for all of our stakeholders, especially our employees, customers, suppliers, and, of course, investors. The legacy SWM and MENA businesses shared many attributes, but we felt articulating the MADD of identity was paramount for providing the direction and inspiration for who we are and what we aspire to be. Our North Star, as we call it, includes our ambition statement, core advantages, strategic pillars, cultural values, and growth platforms. We believe these themes are generally self-explanatory, but we'll briefly talk through them so you can best understand how we will manage the business going forward. First, our ambitious statement is to be the global leader in specialty materials, consistently driving growth by engineering bold, innovative solutions that solve our customers' complex challenges. This has long been the underlying inspiration for both legacy companies, and I believe this captures what we aim for and the heart of our business model. Providing premium solutions that solve our customers' complex design and engineering challenges. Mativ has an expanded set of technologies and capabilities using a variety of materials to design solutions across a diverse set of industries and premium applications. The second element is our core competitive advantages or how we win. We consider these our extensive material science know-how across diverse technologies, our approach to customer collaboration, putting customers at the center of everything we do, and our robust global manufacturing and supply chain capabilities. Ultimately, leveraging these advantages in tandem will underscore our ability to achieve our ambition. The third element are our strategic pillars, which are lean into growth, focus our efforts, and drive value creation, which all tie together. Simply put, we have a diverse business, meaning prioritization is key. These strategic imperatives will guide our decisions. We will invest in strategies for growth, streamline and focus our efforts where we see the best opportunities, and identify and execute projects and initiatives to increase MADV's value to all stakeholders. Fourth is our values, or how we will work together to achieve our goals. Narrowing down all of the incredible values that our people embody and find inspiration in was no easy task, but we boiled them down to the five most important and overarching values that speak to who we are and who we aspire to be. We arrived at prioritize safety, be curious, win with customers, Have a voice and make it happen. These are simple, straightforward, and speak to our culture of a strong bias for action, customers at our center, and rolling our sleeves up to work together to get things done. Our people drive the success of the business, and these cultural values are emblematic of our motivation and the passion we bring to the business every day. While I believe these elements of our North Star are important for us to review this one time with you, and extremely important for alignment internally. I believe the most meaningful part of our strategy for our investment community is our approach to our portfolio and growth platforms. This provides insights on how and where we will bias our investments for growth. So let's shift to that part of the enterprise strategy. As you know, we align our operations with two segments and seven categories. Advanced technical materials focuses on filtration, protective solutions, relief liners, healthcare, and industrials, while fiber-based solutions is divided into the engineering papers and packaging and specialty papers. And I'll begin these comments by saying unequivocally that all of these categories are attractive and profitable. They are complementary in many ways. For instance, they share common assets, technology, and material science capabilities. However, They have different financial profiles, market growth dynamics, and competitive landscape, and required tailored management philosophies. That said, both segments and all categories are expected to profitably grow, as you might imagine, at different trajectories and through various actions. Without rehashing all the product applications and growth catalysts within each area, I'd simply highlight that our more mature FBS areas continue to generate strong cash flow and efficient returns, and each has the potential to leverage emerging trends, such as increasing demand for sustainable, eco-friendly solutions. On the left side of the pyramid are industrials and healthcare, which we believe operate balanced of solid revenue growth prospects and margin expansion opportunities. from optimizing our mix and focusing on high-value products and customer relationships. There are some real pockets of strength in these areas, and that is where we will focus our efforts. And lastly, at the top of the pyramid are our growth platforms, the areas we see accelerated growth outlooks and the most significant opportunities to differentiate and win in the marketplace. These three areas, filtration, protective solutions, and release liners operate with strong global megatrends, such as consistently growing demand for cleaner air, water, and industrial process, and increasing global usage of high-performance films and release liners across a variety of premium markets, like auto paint protection and specialty adhesive materials. Going forward, while all growth opportunities across MATIC will be evaluated rigorously Initiatives like capacity expansion, new product investments, and potential bolt-on acquisitions will likely be weighted towards these growth platforms as we sharpen our focus on the most attractive, profitable growth opportunities and value creation catalysts. While in the past, both companies' strategies were focused on investing in adjacencies, combined as MADV, we are pleased with the growth potential of the markets in which we currently compete. And so we will shift our strategies that were focused on using M&A to diversify into new markets to business unit-led strategies that can accelerate organic growth in our current categories. Bottom line, we see GDP plus long-term growth in total sales given our portfolio's weighting toward growing end markets. And we can amplify our results by aggressively investing in our three growth platforms. I hope these messages helped clarify our strategic approach and priorities and how you can expect us to manage MADF going forward. We enter 2023, our first full year together as a combined company with complete strategic alignment, a cornerstone of successful long-term execution. So to recap the key points before taking questions, I'll just reiterate a few takeaways. First, We hit the EBITDA we said we would in Q4, and we executed on the synergy plan, exiting 2022 as we said we would. Second, we believe adding the $25 million of incremental synergy realization to our $370 million of combined EBITDA in 2022 gives a reasonable baseline for 2023, with a range of outcomes depending on how macro factors and first-half destocking impacts total demand for the year. And to reiterate, although we see a challenging first quarter, we see profit growth in 2023. Third, while macro factors may influence our results, our synergy plan is within our control and we are confident in delivering those savings. In a world full of uncertainties, we are encouraged to have such a substantial and achievable catalyst to drive profitability. And fourth, we are excited about what the future holds and clarifying our ambition, strategic pillars, values, and growth platforms has further unified and aligned the company from top to bottom as we head into the new year. The road ahead is rich with opportunities to lean into growth, sharpen our focus, and drive value creation. That concludes our prepared remarks. Please open the slides for questions.

Thank you. We will now start today's Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. Our first question today comes from John Tanwantang from CJS Securities. Your line is now open.

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. My first one is, and thank you for all the detailed information you guys gave. These were all very helpful, but The first one is, it sounds like you're expecting a sequential decline in the first quarter. I was wondering if you could give us a little more detail on the expected magnitude, both on a revenue margin perspective and if you could provide any more color on just how impacted each segment is going to be, especially just given your underlying synergy and pricing efforts there.

Yeah, I'll start, John, and then Andy, add anything in that I might miss. And also, I should probably recognize, I understand there's a little bit of audio glitch in the call, so if there's any extra questions, we're happy to take those. As far as sequential improvement, we are expecting, from a revenue standpoint, slight sequential improvement versus Q4. I mean, we mentioned we're feeling destocking impact, particularly in paper and industrials and maybe some of our construction areas. There will be the impact of the strike in France, and those are on assets that are sold out. So from a bottom-line standpoint, the combination of the strike in France, destocking, and some normalization of that through Q2, and some softening in Europe, we are expecting a soft Q1, softer than we would expect for our long-term normalization. And if I would think about that versus maybe last year Q1... It's probably in that 10% range.

Yep, I would agree.

On EBITDA.

Okay, great. Thank you. That's very helpful. Andy, you mentioned improving net pricing versus the inflation that is forecasted this year. Two questions around there. How much did you recover in Q4, and is there a target for recovery in 2023?

Yes. In Q4, we recovered $35 million over-recovered, and for the full year, we over-recovered about $75 million. We needed to over-recover, and we do have a target for this year as well. We're expecting some moderation in input costs, but we're expecting to over-recover again in 2023.

Yeah, and in my comments, I mentioned that we would expect, when we look at some of the different buckets, that the order of magnitude of input costs year over year, when you sort of think about energy, some of the pulp, particularly in the front half, it's going to be an order of magnitude of about 100 million. So, you know, we know the order of magnitude that we have to do in terms of to go get the price.

Okay. And is there an over-recovery target at all?

Well, what I would say is, you know, when we think about the margin profile, you know, for 22, you know, we would expect a modest marginal improvement, you know, as we go into, you know, 23. So, you know, that would be a combination of both synergies and then, you know, additional, you know, sort of pricing actions, if you will. So that's probably the best sort of color I can give you.

Yeah, I would think about a minimal, very minimal over-recovery, John. I mean, we got a lot of the over-recovery this year as they start to moderate. We're expecting to hold on to pricing and continue with some of the disciplines we put in place and then deliver on the synergies. But moderate or minimal over-recovery on pricing and same thing from a margin standpoint.

And one thing, John, I would say, as we sort of close out Q4, You know, we really saw that recovery that we sort of think of our ATM margin, you know, was just around 15%. You know, the FBS margins, you know, were about 20%. So, you know, that was sort of representative of some of the pricing actions that were needed. And we knew that the fourth quarter would be the best, you know, sort of year-over-year, and we're happy we delivered it.

Yeah.

Great. Thanks. That's helpful. I also appreciate the call around the depreciation.com. Any change to the amortization and purchase accounting at all at those arm rates as we go forward? It's about $55 to $60 million. Okay, great. And then finally, Julie, can you give us an update, longer term, just on the potential synergies beyond the identified cost ones you've talked about? I'm going to ask this every quarter, but, you know, revenue standards, consolidation, vertical integration.

Sure.

Within the relief. Yep.

Yeah, one of my favorite topics. So as we mentioned, we ended 2022 at a run rate of $20 million. That was our expectation. Most of that, you know, most of the early synergies are SG&A and org design, some early procurement. We'll execute another $10 to $15 million by mid-year that'll flow through at least $10 million through the P&L this year. So those are primarily our short-term synergies, which are heavy procurement this year. They were heavy SG&A to begin with, and now they're heavy procurement and supply chain. Longer term... I'd say there's a lot of opportunities that would be centered around insourcing of capabilities, materials that we buy on the outside today that we likely have the technical capabilities to internalize, as well as footprint optimization, consolidation potentially, how we operate our assets to serve our customers to maximize profitability and reduce costs. There's innovation synergies from our shared technologies, and then there's revenue synergies. And those are... They take longer to materialize, but those are in process right now, particularly the revenue synergies where we're working with some key customers that one of the former companies may have had a relationship in the past, but the other one didn't, or where we now have extended technologies with those existing customers. So a lot of opportunities from a short-term and long-term standpoint. What I love about synergies, particularly in this uncertain environment, is that they are really within our control. And we have clear line of sight to delivery, really rigorous tracking, a transformation office that is leading those efforts. So I kind of consider synergies as an insurance policy that we can continue to deliver even during this tough economic environment.

Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Mecha Ramgopal from Siddhati. Your line is now open.

Yes, hi. Good morning for taking the questions. And again, I really appreciate the detail provided. First one, just on the price increases and the inflationary environment, you've had great success this past year in terms of more than recovering the higher costs. And I know you've mentioned you're still considering additional price inactions or surcharges. In the face of potential slowing demand softness, how confident are you that you'll be able to continue to recoup a lot of the additional costs you're facing?

I think a couple things. We're feeling softness, but I would tell you we're feeling it primarily as destocking right now. We still have some strong demand elements within our portfolio. I think about consumer products and release liners and protective solutions and engineered papers is very stable demand. Water and air and process filtration is very stable demand. So where we're feeling softness, it's in about a third of our business, more heavily in Europe, less so in North America. So I do think we have continued opportunities from a pricing and mix standpoint. And other than synergies, pricing is the number one topic in this building, and it's important that we continue to flex our agility, understand how we reduce contract terms, which the team has done a great job of increasing items that we flex with the modifiers, increasing transparency with customers and our discipline and our tracking of pricing. So while we will feel some softness, we also know we have some very sticky pricing catalysts as well, particularly in packaging and specialty papers, protective solutions. Anywhere where there's a great technical solution that provides a barrier, we tend to have very sticky pricing. And so over time, we've demonstrated our ability to hold on to pricing. I would expect nothing to be different in this environment as well.

Okay, thanks. That's very helpful. And just on synergies, you highlighted the $25 million you expect to get this year. I assume that's really just on the cost side. And just curious on the revenue synergy side, if you're seeing any traction there from cross-selling or new geographies, et cetera.

Yeah, the $25 million is on the cost side. On the revenue side, I'd say they're longer term and a little bit more a little bit more, you know, they're in process now, but they'll take us a little bit longer to recognize. And that's really from primarily cross-selling opportunities and technology, you know, complementary technology opportunities where we can provide different kinds of solutions than we could previously as standalone companies. But those take a little longer because much of our portfolio requires customer qualification. So designing those products with our customers and then qualifying will take us a little bit of time. But it's a really exciting opportunity for us and one the team is extremely focused on.

And maybe just one other thing I would add to that point is when we talked about the 65 million in synergies, you know, revenue synergies were not part of that. So, you know, this would be something that would offer above and beyond that. So we're really just focused on, you know, getting to that first 65 and then commenting on additional synergies beyond that after we get that threshold.

Okay. Thanks for clearing that up. And then on M&A, Julie, you mentioned that's obviously something you'll be looking at. And again, in this environment, I'm not sure if you could maybe touch on potential opportunities you're seeing out there, valuations, especially in the higher interest rate environment. And is there a consideration, I think you mentioned about 60% of the portfolio are being economically resilient. Would there be part of the strategy in terms of M&A to move that number even higher?

Yeah, over time. I mean, clearly right now, our number one priority for use of cash is going to continue to be delevering. And we've demonstrated that in Q4. We'll continue to focus on that in 2023 as well. You know, as we talked about our strategy, I would tell you in the past, both companies' strategy was heavily dependent on M&A and on diversifying into new categories. The categories in which we compete today are really strong. We have a strong portfolio. Over 75% of our portfolio has GDP plus underlying market growth. So that's a great spot to be in. As we think about M&A in the future, it will be more aligned in those categories where we compete today and really bias towards those three growth platforms that I mentioned. So that's release liners, protective solutions, and filtration. Over time, as we accelerate growth in those areas, those are some of our most economic resilient areas. our resiliency will continue to grow as well. So that's how we'll get there, both organic growth by biasing our investments towards those high growth accelerators, as well as in the future, bolt-on type of acquisitions in those high growth accelerators.

Okay, thanks. And then finally, obviously you mentioned the first quarter is going to be very challenging and you expect the cadence to improve going forward. This On the second half, what sort of gives you the heightened confidence that it will be much better than what you're going to see in the first half?

Yeah, I'll take the first one, Julie, if you want to add on. So, you know, when we talk to the business unit leaders, you know, I think universally, you know, everyone's saying that, you know, demand is going to be pretty strong. I think when we talked about some of the softness in Q1, it really is a de-stocking, sort of inventory de-stocking. So I really do sort of isolate it to that. And then when I think about also Q1, there are just, I would say, some one-off sort of inefficiencies that we had as we ran into the start of the year, and then also some of these strikes that we're having in France, which we don't expect that to continue. But I think the comments about, you know, destocking, I think, are probably something you've heard from others talk about, and it's something that we've seen. And we even saw it, you know, coming a little bit into, you know, in November when we spoke, you know, we saw it coming into Q4 as well. But, you know, we feel really confident when we look at the end markets in terms of protective solutions, filtration, release liners, you know, all those businesses, you know, we feel really confident in terms of what the, you know, what that growth outlook is. I think the second thing I would say is when you look about the input environment, when we get to the second half of the year, the input environment, you know, should be much more favorable, you know, than where we were on the front half. So on the front half, you know, still energy will be up year over year. You know, materials like, you know, pulp, you know, should be going up year over year. But then when you look at the NBSK, you know, that should be more favorable as we look into the back half of the year. So when we sort of think about the entire complex, we see, you know, a good second half, you know, sort of setting up where you could have, you know, good demand with a favorable input environment.

Yeah, I think Andy hit on the key elements. The only one I would add is the addition of potential for synergies to continue to ramp in. So when you think about procurement contracts, they'll ramp in over the year. Supply chain efficiencies and capabilities will ramp in over the year. So we'll continue to build that out throughout the year as well and have a higher run rate at the end of the year than we start the year with.

Okay, no, that's great. Again, look forward to the rest of the year and congratulations on getting the merger done. It looks like you're set up nicely over the next 12, 24 months. So thanks again for taking the questions.

Thanks, Mitra.

We now have a follow-up question from John from CJS Securities. Your line is open.

Thanks for the follow-up. I was just wondering what your expectations for capital and cash flow are through the year, assuming an air pocket, obviously, in Q1 and potential recoveries in the second half. Also, is there any particular lumpiness in cash restructuring costs over integration and capital spending? Just how do you see the use of cash through the year?

Sure. So when we think about, I would say, just free cash flow, when I talk about the elements in terms of You know, really the walk when I talked about, you know, the depreciation, the interest, you know, some of the assumptions around tax and JVs, et cetera, you know, that really would blend itself to, you know, around a free cash flow of about $150 million. And so when I think about, you know, one-time sort of, you know, continued, you know, restructuring charges, you know, coming through, it's going to be nothing like it was in the back half of the year. So it's not going to be meaningful. I would say order of magnitude between $10 or $15 million, as we sit here today. On a working capital, I would say because of the receivables facility that we put in place, I don't think receivables would actually be that big of a drag this year. And I would think about inventories as potentially being, you know, a headwind in the front half of the year, but then certainly a tailwind in the back half of the year because of the dynamics we talked about in terms of thinking about the input cost, you know, going down then, you know, year over year. And then CapEx, I think I mentioned this in my comments, you know, that would be close to about $90 million for the year.

And then just given the higher prolonged ascendant that people are expecting from the Fed and the interest rate, how much more important is it to pay down debt using excess cash flow versus using your capital elsewhere at this point?

Well, that's what we're focused on. So we would expect to continue to pay down debt in 23 after an abnormal cash flow year in 22. You know, and that is the focus. So, you know, net leverage ended at 3.7 for this year. You know, we would expect to be between 3 and 3.5, you know, as we close out the year. And we're really high, you know, we're very confident in that. Okay.

Got it. Thank you.

Thanks, John.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand back over to Julie Chattel for closing remarks.

Yes, thank you for your interest today. We appreciate your time and questions and look forward to talking to you soon. Have a good afternoon.

That concludes today's massive 4Q 2022 earnings release. You may now disconnect your line.