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3/31/2020
Good morning. This is Kasey Jenkins, Vice President of McCormick Investor Relations. Thank you for joining today's first quarter earnings call. To accompany this call, we posted a set of slides at ir.mccormick.com. Currently, all participants are in listen-only mode. Following our remarks, we will begin a question and answer session. If you need to reach the operator at any time during the call, please press star zero. We'll begin with remarks from Lawrence Kurzias, Chairman, President, and CEO, and Mike Smith, Executive Vice President and CFO. During our remarks, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These include information in constant currency as well as adjusted operating income, adjusted income tax rate, and adjusted earnings per share that exclude the impact of special charges. Reconciliations to the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release and slides. In our comments, certain percentages are rounded. Please refer to our presentation for complete information. In addition, as a reminder, today's presentation contains projections and other forward looking statements, as results could differ materially from those projected. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements whether because of new information, future events, or other factors. It is important to note these statements include expectations and assumptions which will be shared related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. As seen on slide 2, our forward-looking statement also provides information on risk factors, including the impacts of COVID-19 that could affect our financial results. It is now my pleasure to turn the discussion over to Lawrence.
Thank you, Kasey. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. To start, I'd like to comment on the extraordinary and continually evolving global impact of COVID-19. On behalf of everyone at McCormick, I'd like to first express our deepest sympathies to all those who are affected by COVID-19 and thank those working to keep people safe through this crisis. McCormick is committed to maintaining critical food supply across all our markets and supporting our communities. We are working through the challenges of today while keeping our focus on the long-term goals, strategies, and values that have made us so successful. We have three priorities while navigating through this period of volatility and uncertainty. First, to ensure the health and safety of our employees and the quality and integrity of our products. Keep our brands and our customers' brands in supply and maintain the financial strength of our business. Our third priority is to ensure McCormick emerges strong from this event. It will come to an end and we will come out a better company by driving our long-term strategies, responding to changing consumer behavior, and capitalizing on opportunities from our relative strength. We're taking steps to safely operate our business and supply our customers. We continue to operate our supply chain without significant disruption. We have implemented contingency planning with most employees working remotely where possible. We have global and regional crisis teams in place continually monitoring the rapidly evolving situation and recommending risk mitigation actions. And we have implemented travel restrictions, visitor protocols, and social distancing practices as you would expect. We've also recently announced incentives to further recognize and support employees who work on-site in locations critical to keeping our operations running globally. We will increase hourly wages, further expand sick leave to support family members and maintain salaries if operations are suspended. It's essential that we show our appreciation to employees while doing our part for the betterment of public health and to support our communities. And moving to slide 5 to highlight a few points on the current conditions we're seeing and the potential impact. First, as we mentioned at Cagney, the significant disruption in China's consumption in the first quarter impacted our results. The events in China during the second half of the quarter were extraordinary. While total McCormick sales follow a seasonal pattern, with the first quarter generally the lightest, the first quarter is typically our peak season in China. Additionally, over half our China business relates to away from home consumption and Hubei province is one of our most highly developed regions due to the Dachao brand being founded and made in Wuhan. This made the China lockdown with an extended lockdown in Hubei coupled with no opportunity for consumers to stock their pantries to be a significant impact. We believe we cannot use the China results to extrapolate the overall impact for the rest of the company due to differences related to lockdown durations, pantry stocking opportunities, as well as the differing percentages of food service business and other dynamics in each region. The disruption in China resulted in a 3% reduction in total company first quarter sales and reduced our total consumer and flavor solutions segment sales 5% and 1% respectively. As a reminder, in China, our consumer segment includes the branded food service component because those food service products use the same packaging format and share a common distribution channel, particularly in traditional trade and in the smaller markets, as other consumer products in China. The lower operating income from China impacted the total company's growth in both adjusted operating income and adjusted earnings per share by 10%. Currently, during the early stages of recovery in China, we are seeing increased cooking at home and a surge in consumer retail demand. both in stores as well as through e-commerce and the start of a recovery in food service as most restaurants and caterers reopen and consumer confidence gradually builds. We expect China's results to be significantly impacted in the second quarter as well as the market begins to recover gradually. The lockdown in Hubei continues through March and as recently announced is expected to be lifted in April. For the year, we expect lower China sales from the COVID-19 impact will reduce our total net sales growth by 1% to 2%. And as I already mentioned, we currently believe COVID-19 impact in China cannot be extrapolated to the overall COVID-19 impact for the rest of the company. Turning to the current status of our major markets outside of China, our presence in China afforded us the insight of seeing how COVID-19 scenarios can unfold, as well as to take early action. Our supply chain business continuity plans have been in effect since January. We have assessed and implemented continuity plans to provide customers with continued supply. To date, there has been no material impact on supply for most of our sourced materials and for those impacted, continuity plans have been activated. We are partnering with our customers to monitor and respond to changes in consumer demand. We are seeing increased consumer consumption both through our scanner data and e-commerce as well as through customer orders including those from packaged food companies in our flavor solutions segment. While this increase is impacted by short-term pantry stocking, we expect some level of elevated demand for at-home cooking to continue. Schools are closed, people are staying at home, and that contributes to real incremental at-home consumption. We also know from our sales performance during recessionary periods, we benefit from consumers eating at home. Our constant currency total consumer segment for organic sales growth in 2001 and 2009 was 4% and 3%, respectively. On the other hand, in the away from home part of our flavor solution segment, which represents approximately 20% of our total company sales, we are now seeing reduced demand from our food service customers as COVID-19 measures have eliminated in the dining in services and limited restaurants to carry out or delivery only. We expect this will have a significant negative impact on our near-term performance, particularly in our EMEA region. As more people stay at home and away from home, options remain limited. To maximize flexibility during this uncertain time, we've decided to moderate the pace of our Enterprise Resource Planning, or ERP, replacement program. While we remain excited about and committed to our global transformation initiative, we believe that it is more prudent given current challenges posed by the COVID-19 situation to re-phase the timing of this initiative as we focus on the three priorities that I previously described. Now I'd like to focus on our first quarter results, highlights from our consumer and flavor solution segments, and finally our growth drivers in relation to the current environment. Starting on slide seven, in our first quarter, the lower operating results from the COVID-19 impact in China, I just mentioned, offset the otherwise solid sales, adjusted operating income, and Adjusted Earnings Per Share Growth we delivered driven by the successful execution of our strategies and engagement of employees. This while also making business transformation investments. We have a broad and advantaged global flavor portfolio which continues to position us to meet the demand for flavor around the world and grow our business. Across our portfolio, in our Americas and Europe, Middle East and Africa, or MAO region, We drove particularly strong flavor solution sales growth in the first quarter. In our Asia Pacific region, the China disruption significantly affected our first quarter sales growth across both of our segments, with a greater impact in consumer. Overall, we are confident that the breadth and reach of our portfolio will continue to be the foundation for sales growth, and while we may experience temporary disruptions in parts of our business, We're confident that underlying consumer demand will continue to underpin long-term growth. Now let me cover the highlights of our first quarter performance. Starting with our top line for the first quarter, versus the year-ago period, total sales declined 2%, including a 1% unfavorable impact from currency and a 3% unfavorable impact from China, partly offset by 2% growth contributed by the rest of the business, driven by higher volumes and product mix, as well as pricing. Adjusted operating income was down 2% with minimal impact from currency and included a 10% unfavorable impact from China results. Partly offsetting this impact was the sales growth across the rest of the business and savings led by our Comprehensive Continuous Improvement Program . During the quarter, we also had higher brand marketing and ERP replacement program investments compared to last year. At the bottom line, our first quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.08 was lower than $1.12 in the prior period for a decline of 4%. This decline includes a 10% unfavorable operating impact from China and a 5% headwind due to a higher adjusted tax rate. As we said on a year-end earnings call in January and at Cagney in February, we have confidence in our strategies and notwithstanding the COVID-19 impact, our underlying foundation is strong and we remain committed to our long-term growth objectives. Now let me spend a few minutes on our business updates. Starting on slide eight with our consumer segment, constant currency sales declined 6% in the first quarter, including an unfavorable 5% China impact. In the America, constant currency sales declined 2%. We believe we substantially undershift consumer consumption due to normal seasonal trade inventory reductions versus building some inventory levels in the first quarter of 2019. We estimate this resulted in a negative 4% impact to the America's growth rate for the quarter. This is in line with our expected trade inventory impact in net sales for the year, which is also consistent with our historical performance. Today, it's hard to comprehend that there were retailers reducing inventory in the first quarter if the world has changed so much. In U.S. spices and seasonings, we are maintaining the share stabilization we achieved last year. Our IRI data indicates U.S. McCormick-branded spices and seasoning scanner sales grew aligned with the category and we had strong growth in unmeasured channels, particularly in e-commerce. We believe for the combined channels, McCormick-branded slightly outpaced the spices and seasonings category growth. In McCormick-branded dry recipe mixes, we continued our growth momentum, delivering share growth for the 10th straight quarter. Our first quarter performance included our sixth sequential quarter of accelerating consumption growth across our condiment portfolio. In total, we grew consumption 4%, as well as growing share in many of our product lines. Frank's Red Hot Sauce had strong performance again, partially driven by effective Super Bowl marketing and promotion programs. Stubb's BBQ and McCormick Mayonnaise grew double digits, and French's Mustard continued its consumption and share growth momentum. Our category management initiatives, effective marketing support, and merchandising execution, expanded distribution, and new products are all contributing to driving our category leadership and our momentum. We're confident in our initiatives underway to continue our long-term growth trajectory. In March, we're seeing an unprecedented surge in demand from customers and consumers that dwarfs the single-digit changes we're discussing related to our first quarter results, and I'll say more about this in a moment. Now turning to the EMEA region, we had growth in UK and France driven partially by new products and brand marketing support. New dry recipe mix products, such as the launch of our One Pan line, contributed to us not only gaining share in the quarter, but also to have the leading UK recipe mix position. In the Asia Pacific region, our constant currency sales declined, driven by the significant impact in China, as I previously mentioned. and other parts of the region, we continued to gain momentum with effective brand marketing and promotions as well as through e-commerce. Our fundamentals in our consumer business remain strong. Turning to slide nine in our flavor solution segment, our performance was excellent with constant currency sales growth of 5% driven by the Americas and EMEA regions, partially offset for the decline in the Asia Pacific region. In Americas, we drove constant currency sales growth of 5%. We had broad-based growth across our portfolio, both from a product category and customer perspective. Strong growth to both packaged food companies and quick-service restaurants was driven by new products and base business growth. Our momentum in branded food service continued with robust growth driven by new products such as Old Bay Hot Sauce, promotional activity with operators, and expanded distribution. In addition to driving top-line growth, we also continued to migrate our portfolio to more value-added categories. Our sales growth in EMEA was outstanding, 9% in constant currency, as the strong momentum we have built in this region continued into the first quarter. We are winning with our customers, both quick service restaurants and packaged food companies, through new products, their promotional activities, and expanded distribution. In the Asia-Pacific region, our constant currency sales declined, driven by the significant impact of China. In other parts of the region, sales to quick service restaurants drove growth. Turn to slide 10 to talk about our growth drivers in the current environment. Just six weeks ago at Cagney, we shared with you our 2020 growth plans aligned to our strategies designed to build long-term value for our shareholders. We're now operating in a more dynamic and rapidly changing environment than we were at Cagney and possibly ever before and need to be agile in responding to the current dynamics and the changing consumer behaviors. Our overall growth plans have not changed although some have been adjusted and even strengthened to enable us to effectively execute in these challenging times and the balance of the year and to capitalize on the opportunity to help our consumers and our customers through this difficult time. First, across both segments, we are currently focused on keeping our brands and our customer brands in supply, feeding particularly strong demand for items in key categories, core spices and herbs, seasoning blends providing flavor solutions, Dry Recipe Mixes offering convenience, condiments, rice mixes, frozen products, stocks and broth, and snack seasonings. The continuity of meeting demand, including the quality and integrity of our products, is a critical priority. Turning specifically to our consumer segment, our 2020 plans include to further drive our undisputed leadership in spice and seasonings, accelerate our condiment global platform, and fuel our growth in emerging markets and channels as well as an on-trend, fast-growing platform. We're strengthening our connection with the consumer, especially with digital e-commerce and social media outreach, which is even more important today with consumers at home more and looking for solutions. Simply put, our consumer portfolio and plans are even more relevant today than they were before. We are seeing an incredible surge in demand from consumers stocking their pantries and cooking at home as are other consumer packaged companies. For example, for the weekend of March 15th, scanner sales for the total McCormick U.S. branded portfolio grew 65% with all major categories up double or triple digits. While we expect consumption will not continue at this extraordinary level, we do expect sustained growth from an increase in consumers cooking at home. Now taking a deeper look at our plans, brand marketing is a key driver of sales growth and we're increasing our investments in 2020 as planned. The speed and agility we gained with our marketing excellence organization has enabled us to quickly pivot and adjust our messaging in light of the COVID-19 developments. For instance, we've changed content to focus on at-home family times, which is more relevant than the current environment. A few weeks ago, we launched our new U.S. McCormick brand advertising campaign with the tagline, It's Gonna Be Great, which is the strongest scoring campaign in our consumer testing history. This TV and digital campaign is focused on consumer education on what to make, how to prepare, and build confidence in the kitchen, which is all the more relevant today as consumers cook more at home. Our plans to create even deeper connections with our consumers by bridging their physical and digital experiences have been underway since early this year. We continue to develop best-in-class content and opportunities for our consumers to connect with us and are strengthening our brands as an indispensable partner on their flavor journey. These opportunities have now increased and even go beyond their flavor journey. Consumer engagement with our McCormick properties, such as McCormick.com, YouTube, and our social channels, has increased high double digits in recent weeks, both in visits and time spent. And we have a steady stream of new real-time content that is focused on solutions to the questions consumers are asking. Here are some examples. How to occupy the kids at home. Of course, with kid-friendly recipes, from painted sugar cookies to scented slime or window planes. And we're seeing increased consumption in related products. U.S. scanner sales show vanilla is up 54%, for example, in the weekend of March 15th. What recipes and products help with health and wellness? Our content and recipes on turmeric and bone broth, as well as soup recipes, for example, have increased and we're continuing our work to promote the health benefits of spices and herbs. Our U.S. consumption growth on our stocks and broth was up 140% and turmeric up 22% during the same period. How to create flavorful meals with items that have been stockpiled. Canned tuna, eggs, and pasta are frequent searches, and we have and will continue to create content to add flavor to these items and more. Consumers want more convenient solutions to add flavor, as evident by recent 104% U.S. consumption growth in dry recipe mixes. and finally consumers can now use our newly added Ask McCormick feature on our social channels and we respond real time with tips, tricks, recipes and products. We are now there with whatever consumers need to help them through these times. The investments we've made in e-commerce have not only driven growth but positioned us well for acceleration which is what we're experiencing and for which we are prepared. Consumers shopping behavior is changing and the opportunities we're activating by making all touch points shoppable or paying off. In China, traffic to our direct-to-consumer platform has increased four times, driving sales growth up triple digits, increasing five-fold since the beginning of the year. In the U.S., we're seeing increased traffic in sales as well. Our pure-play and direct-to-consumer sales have tripled in recent weeks. This is also true in EMEA, with direct-to-consumer sales tripling as well. We're making our products even more discoverable to consumers with increased support. Our exciting first half new product launches align with consumers' demands for convenience, health, and transparency, as well as flavor exploration and experimentation. We continue to drive category leadership, and in the U.S. are enthusiastic and committed about our initiative underway to reinvent the in-store experience for spices and seasonings by introducing new merchandising elements. We have had strong favorable customer reactions and began the rollout earlier this year. As we partner with retailers to maintain stocked shelves and business continuity, we will have some delay in our rollout plan. With increased cooking at home expected to be a longer term trend, this initiative becomes even more exciting and relevant. Now, turning to our flavor solutions segment. Our immediate focus is on responding to the volatility we're seeing across the segment. As a reminder, in Flavor Solutions, we operate across a wide range of customers and channels, consumer manufacturers, restaurants, and distributors. Over 50% of our Flavor Solutions portfolio, our flavors and ingredient product categories, are primarily sold to packaged food companies. Demand from these customers is currently strong as they are experiencing the same increase in consumption as we are in our consumer segments. In contrast, our restaurant and distributor customers are experiencing significant short-term pain related to the reduction of people traveling, shopping, and dining out, with many restaurants and away-from-home eating locations closed. Consequently, we are expecting a sharp and negative impact on the demand for our products from these customers. While we expect this demand to return once the COVID-19 crisis passes, similar to the beginning stages of recovery we're seeing in China, the duration Our current flavor solutions priority is to work with all of our customers, those seeing demand surges as well as those under pressure, to manage through the coming months. We have confidence that the strong and differentiated partnerships we have built with our customers, which include the top 10 food and beverage companies as well as the top 10 food service restaurant chains, enables the robust collaboration needed to navigate through this situation as best as possible. Now I'd like to provide a few summary comments as seen on slide 12 before turning it over to Mike. At the foundation of our sales growth is the global and growing consumer demand for great taste and healthy eating as well as transparency around the source and quality of ingredients and the desire to buy brands from environmentally and socially responsible companies. Flavor continues to be an advantaged global category, and we inspire flavor exploration across all markets, through all channels, and are aligned with the consumer's demand for taste, convenience, health, and sustainably-minded business practices. Our alignment with these long-term trends, our breadth and reach, and our execution of effective strategies positions us well to meet increased consumer demand, both through our products and through our customers' products, and drive sales growth. No matter what, where, or when people are eating or drinking, it is likely flavored by McCormick. We believe these long-term behaviors will remain intact following the current crisis. We're continuing to drive long-term sales growth balanced with our focus on lowering costs to expand margins and sustainably realize long-term earnings growth. We have a solid foundation and in an environment that continues to be dynamic and fast-paced, We are ensuring we remain agile, relevant, and focused on long-term sustainable growth. Our experienced leaders and employees are executing on our strategies, which are designed to build long-term value for shareholders, are reacting to changes accordingly, and capitalizing on opportunities. Excluding the China COVID-19 impact, we delivered solid first quarter results, again proving our strategies are effective, and we're confident they will drive future growth. Well, we know the balance of the year will be impacted by an uncertain environment. We're confident our underlying foundation and performance remains strong. I want to recognize McCormick employees around the world for driving our momentum and success and thank them for their efforts, engagement, and for adapting to this new environment during this volatile time. As food and food products have been designated a critical industry, I want to particularly thank our many employees who are working hard every day to protect the food supply and are rallying to support McCormick and their community. Thank you for your attention and it is now my pleasure to turn it over to Mike.
Thanks Lawrence and good morning everyone. I'll begin now by providing some additional comments on our first quarter performance and then discuss some of our expectations for the balance of the year. Starting on slide 14, during the first quarter, sales declined 1% in constant currency driven primarily by the COVID-19 impact in China. which had a negative 3% constant currency effect on the total company. Excluding the impact of China, favorable volume of product mix from base business and new products, as well as pricing, drove sales growth. The consumer segment sales declined 6% in constant currency, primarily driven by the Asia Pacific region. On slide 15, consumer segment sales in the Americas declined 2% in constant currency versus the first quarter of 2019. As Lawrence described earlier, The decline was driven by trade inventory reductions, with a partial offset from pricing actions which were taken late during the first quarter. In EMEA, constant currency consumer sales were up 1% from a year ago, driven by pricing, primarily related to the timing of trade promotional activities. Consumer sales in Asia Pacific declined 28% in constant currency, driven by the China disruption. Growth was strong across the rest of the region. Turning to our flavor solutions segment on slide 18, We grew first quarter constant currency sales 5% due to strong growth in the Americas and EMEA regions. In the Americas, Flavor Solutions' constant currency sales increased 5%, driven by new products and base business volume growth, with particular strength in snack seasonings and branded food service. Additionally, pricing also contributed to growth across the portfolio. In EMEA, we grew Flavor Solutions' sales 9% in constant currency. Sales increased to both quick service restaurants and packaged food companies, driven by new products and volume growth on the base business as well as pricing. In the Asia-Pacific region, flavor solution sales declined 4% in constant currency, driven by the decline in China. Other parts of the region drove growth. Across both segments, I've seen on slide 22, adjusted operating income, which excludes special charges, declined 2% in the first quarter versus the year-ago period. with minimal impact from currency. Adjusted operating income in the consumer segment declined 12% to $120 million, which in constant currency was an 11% decline. In the flavor solution segment, adjusted operating income rose to $76 million, a 19% increase with minimal impact from currency. Both segments were negatively impacted by the China disruption, which was a 10% impact to the total company and was skewed more to the consumer segment. as well as incremental investments related to our ERP replacement program with partial offsets from CCI-led cost savings and lower incentive-based compensation. Additionally, the consumer segment's adjusted operating income was unfavorably impacted by an increase in brand marketing expenses, and Flavor Solutions was favorably impacted by product mix. Gross profit margin expanded 90 basis points in the first quarter versus the year-ago period, driven by CCI-led cost savings. We had adjusted operating margin compression of 10 basis points driven by the factors I just mentioned. Turning to income taxes on slide 24, our first quarter adjusted effective income tax rate was 18.4% as compared to 13.9% in the year-ago period. Both quarters adjusted rate was favorably impacted by discrete tax items primarily related to refinements to our entity structure, which had a more significant impact last year. income from unconsolidated operations was $10 million in the first quarter of both years. At the bottom line, as shown on slide 26, first quarter 2020 adjusted earnings per share was $1.08, as compared to $1.12 for the year-ago period. The decline was primarily driven by the China disruption impact and a higher adjusted income tax rate from last year, with partial offsets from higher adjusted operating income growth, excluding China, and lower interest expense. On slide 27, we summarize highlights for cash flow in the quarter end balance sheet. Our cash flow provided from operations was $45 million in the first quarter of 2020, compared to $104 million in the first quarter of 2019. This decrease was driven by timing associated with working capital, as well as employee incentive and benefit payments. We continue to see improvements in our cash conversion cycle, finishing the first quarter at 40 days, down three days versus our fiscal year end. We returned $82 million of cash to shareholders through dividends and used $39 million for capital expenditures this period. We believe that we have adequate liquidity to meet our operating, investing, and financial needs through our operating cash flows as well as our access to bank lines and commercial paper. We have been able to access commercial paper markets as needed during the recent period of market volatility and currently have unutilized capacity under our $1 billion corporate revolver. We have no material debt maturities until 2021 and we expect no material change to our capital allocation. We continue to evaluate the market to determine if there is an opportunity to further bolster our position given the low underlying interest rates. Let's now move to a discussion about our outlook and some of our expectations for the balance of the year as seen on slide 28. As a reminder, the guidance we issued in January and discussed at CAGNI does not include any impact from COVID-19. We are operating in a very fluid environment and our ability to assess the financial impact of COVID-19 on our business is affected by both the speed at which the situation is evolving as well as the high degree of uncertainty related to the duration and extent of the impact on consumer demand in all channels and the global economy. We are also still early in our fiscal year with three quarters remaining including those that are typically our largest ones. We therefore are withdrawing our previously issued 2020 Financial Outlook discussed on our January earnings call. I would like to, however, provide additional perspective to highlight some current expectations. First, as we have already mentioned, there was a significant COVID-19 impact from China to our first quarter results, and we project disruption in China continuing into the second quarter. We expect the lower sales from the COVID-19 impact in China will reduce our total global net sales growth by 1-2% for the year. We believe the China impact cannot be extrapolated to the overall impact for the rest of the company due to the reasons Lawrence already mentioned earlier. Differences related to lockdown durations and pantry stocking opportunities, as well as the differing percentages of food service, business, and other dynamics in each region. We expect the shift in consumer consumption will continue with our consumer segment positively impacted by initial pantry stocking, and followed by an increased preference for cooking at home. In our flavor solutions segment, we expect increased demand from our packaged food customers, similar to our consumer segment. However, in the away from home part of our flavor solutions portfolio, which represents approximately 20% of our total company sales, we expect sharp declines in demand from our restaurant and other food service customers. Given the current economic environment, we are closely following the movements in foreign exchange rates and are anticipating a negative impact on our full-year financial results. And finally, as Lawrence mentioned, we are moderating the pace of our ERP replacement program. As a result of this decision, we are projecting our program operating expenses in 2020 to be comparable to 2019. We continue to closely monitor the situation and expect to resume guidance during our second quarter earnings call at the end of June. but we should know more. We have managed through multiple business cycles for 130 years and have a consistent history of growth. We are well positioned given our financial strength, stable cash generation, access to liquidity, and have rapidly implemented appropriate mitigation plans. We are confident we will manage through this short-term period of volatility and continue on our long-term growth trajectory. I'd like to now turn it back to Lawrence for some additional remarks before we move to your questions.
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