speaker
Casey Keller
Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations

Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations. Thank you for joining today's fourth quarter earnings call. To accompany this call, we've posted a set of slides at ir.mccormick.com. We'll begin with remarks from Lars Kurzias, Chairman, President, and CEO, and Mike Smith, Executive Vice President and CFO, and we will close with a question and answer session. During this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. The nature of these non-GAAP financial measures and the related reconciliation to the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release and slides. In our comments, certain percentages are rounded. Please refer to our presentation for complete information. In addition, as a reminder, today's presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events, or other factors. Please refer to our forward-looking statement on slide two for more information. I will now turn the discussion over to Lawrence.

speaker
Lawrence E. Kurzius
Chairman, President, and CEO

Thank you, Casey. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Starting on slide four, our fourth quarter completed another year of robust and sustained growth. In 2021, we remained focused on growth, performance, and people, driving another year of strong results and continuing our momentum. We drove record sales growth by executing on our long-term strategies, actively responding to changing consumer behaviors, and capitalizing on new opportunities, all while remaining forward-looking in an ever-changing global environment. The profit driven by our strong sales growth in 2021 while tempered by the well-known headwinds of higher inflation and broad-based supply chain challenges, was also strong. Our 2021 operating performance underscored the strength of our business model, the value of our products and capabilities, and the resilience of our employees. We have a demonstrated history of managing through short-term pressures and did so again in the fourth quarter. And we expect to do the same through this inflationary environment using pricing and other levers to fully offset cost pressures over time. The breadth and reach of our global flavor portfolio ideally position us to fully meet the growing demand for flavor around the world and drive continued differentiated growth. This has never been more evident than over the last two years as consumers adapted to the ever-changing environment. Our compelling offerings in our consumer and flavor solution segments for every retail and customer strategy across all channels create a balanced and diversified portfolio to drive growth and consistency in our performance. It also gives us significant flexibility to adapt to changing conditions wherever they may arise and continue on our growth trajectory. This is a significant differentiator in the dynamic environment in which we currently operate. we are delivering flavor experiences for every meal occasion, regardless of whether the occasion is consumed at home or away from home, to our products and our customers' products. We are end-to-end flavor. Now, turning to slide six and our fourth quarter results, our performance was at the high end of the guidance range we provided for sales and adjusted operating profit on our last earnings call and exceeded the guidance range we provided for adjusted earnings per share. On our top line versus the year-ago period, we grew fourth quarter sales 11%. Both of our segments delivered strong growth with contributions from base business growth driven by higher volume and pricing actions, as well as new products and acquisitions. Our fourth quarter adjusted operating income and adjusted earnings per share both increased 6% driven by growth from higher sales and CCI-led cost savings, partially offset by cost inflation. Let's turn to our fourth quarter segment business performance, which includes some comparisons to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, which we believe are meaningful given the level of demand volatility from quarter to quarter experienced in 2020. Starting on side seven, consumer segment sales grew 10%, including incremental sales from our Cholula acquisition. The increase was driven by strong volume growth and the impact of pricing actions phased in during the quarter, as we discussed on our last earnings call. Our consumer segment organic sales momentum on a two-year basis was up double digits, highlighting how the sustained shift in consumer consumption continues to drive increased demand for our product and outpaces pre-pandemic levels. Our America sales growth was 13% in the fourth quarter, with incremental sales from our Cholula acquisition contributing 3% growth. Our total McCormick U.S.-branded portfolio consumption, as indicated in our IRI consumption data, and combined with unmeasured channels, grew 1% following a 17% consumption increase in the fourth quarter of 2020, which results in a 19% increase on a two-year basis. As we previously discussed, in the year-ago period, elevated demand challenged our supply chain, whereas in 2021, with the actions we took to add capacity and increase resilience, we were far better positioned and able to shift in line with consumption. Demand has remained high, and we continue to realize the benefit of our U.S. manufacturing capacity expansion, although some products remain stretched by sustained high demand. Shelf conditions are improving, as is our share performance, with another sequential improvement in the fourth quarter as we expected. We continue to see further improvement in our recent performance as we begin 2022. Importantly, and as I just mentioned, we are better positioned than we were a year ago and are confident in our continued momentum. Focusing further on our U.S.-branded portfolio, our 19% consumption growth versus the fourth quarter of 2019 was the seventh consecutive quarter that our U.S.-branded portfolio consumption grew double digits versus the two-year-ago period. Our key categories also continue to outpace the center of store growth rates versus the two-year-ago period. Household penetration and repeat rates have also grown versus 2019. And when consumers shop, they're buying and therefore using more of our products than they were pre-pandemic. Now turning to EMEA, during the fourth quarter, we continued our momentum with strong consumption growth in key categories compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. For the full year, we gained market share in key categories and across the region. Similar to the U.S., our household penetration and repeat rates have also grown versus the two-year-ago period, and when consumers shopped, they were buying more than they were pre-pandemic. And in the Asia-Pacific region, our fourth quarter performance continued to reflect the recovery of China's lower branded food service sales last year, as well as consumer consumption growth across the region. Turning to slide 9, our flavor solution segment grew 14%, reflecting higher base volume growth in new products, as well as pricing actions to partially offset cost inflation and contributions for our FONA and Cholula acquisitions. On a two-year basis, our sales also increased double digits, with strong growth in all three regions. In the Americas, our FONA and Cholula acquisitions made a strong contribution to our fourth quarter growth. Additionally, we continue to see robust growth momentum for their consumer packaged food customers, as well as the recovery of demand from branded food service customers as more dining out options are open versus a year ago. We continue to execute on our strategy to shift our portfolio to more value-added and technically insulated products in the region, both through the addition of Fona and Cholula to our portfolio, as well as the exit of some lower margin business. Turning to EMEA, which has continued its strong momentum, we are winning in all channels with double-digit fourth quarter growth to quick service restaurants, or QSRs, branded food service customers and packaged food and beverage customers. Recovery has been robust in the away-from-home part of the portfolio, and growth in our at-home offerings has been outstanding. Notably, for the full year, on a two-year basis, we have driven 19% constant currency growth across the portfolio. In APZ, our momentum with our QSR customers remains strong, driving double-digit growth versus 2020, as well as on a two-year basis. As for the fourth quarter, and in line with what we've said in the past, limited time offers and promotional activities can cause some sales volatility from quarter to quarter. Moving for our fourth quarter results, I'm pleased to share highlights of our full fiscal year, including an update on our Cholula and FONA acquisitions, starting on slide 10. We drove record sales growth in 2021, growing sales 13% to $6.3 billion, with strong organic sales growth and a 4% contribution from our Cholula and Fona acquisitions. Notably, on a two-year basis, we grew sales 18%, reflecting a robust and sustained growth momentum in both of our segments. Our consumer segment sales growth of 9% was driven by consumer sustained preference for cooking more at home, fueled by our brand marketing, strong digital engagement, and new products, as well as growth from Cholula. Versus 2019, we grew sales 20%, which reflects the continuation of consumers cooking and using flavor more at home and the strength of our brand. Our flavor solution segment growth of 19% reflected the strong, continued momentum with the at-home products in our portfolio, including a record year of new product growth, and a robust recovery from last year's lower demand for away-from-home products, as well as contributions from FONA and Cholula. Notably, growth was driven equally from both the at-home and away-from-home products in our portfolio. On a two-year basis, we grew sales 15%, driven by the at-home part of our portfolio, but demand for the away-from-home portion recovering to pre-pandemic levels. We have consistently driven industry-leading sales growth resulting in McCormick being named to the latest Fortune 500. We're proud of our sustained performance and for being included in this prestigious group of industry-leading companies. At year-end, our Board of Directors announced a 9% increase in our quarterly dividend, marking our 36th consecutive year of dividend increases. We have paid dividends every year since 1925 and are proud to be a dividend aristocrat. Finally, we continue to be recognized for doing what's right for people, communities, and the planet. During the year McCormick was named the United Nations Global Compact Lead Company and awarded the inaugural Terracotta Seal from His Royal Highness the Prince of Wales for industry leadership in creating a sustainable future. And just last week, corporate knights ranked McCormick in their 2022 Global 100 Sustainability Index as the world's 14th most sustainable corporation, and for the sixth consecutive year, number one in the food product sector. Moving to the one-year anniversary of our two fantastic recent acquisitions, Cholula and FONA are creating value, achieving synergies, and delivering results according to our plans. Importantly, we've achieved our one-year sales and earnings per share accretion expectations for both Cholula and FONA. I'd like to share some comments about the successful execution of our growth plan, and then in a few moments, Mike will cover in more detail our delivery on the acquisition plan. Starting with Cholula on slide 12, the addition of this beloved, iconic brand with authentic Mexican flavor is accelerating the growth of our global condiment platform. In our consumer segment, we're unlocking Cholula's significant growth potential by using our category management expertise leveraging e-commerce investments, launching new products, and optimizing brand marketing spend. We executed on initiatives this past year, including optimizing shelf placement and assortment, expanding into new channels, gaining momentum in e-commerce where Cholula had been underpenetrated, increasing awareness, both through brand marketing investments and brand partnerships, such as with DoorDash, and leveraging promotional scale across McCormick brands. We're excited about the results our initiatives are yielding. During 2021, we gained significant momentum on top of lapping elevated growth in 2020, adding over a million new households and growing Cholula's consumption 13% in 2021 versus last year. Cholula is continuing to outpace category growth and gain share. Combined with 19% total distribution point growth in the fourth quarter of 2021, it is clear our plans are driving accelerated growth. And notably, we drove Cholula to the number two hot sauce brand in the U.S., joining Frank's Red Hot, the number one ranked brand, at the top of the category. We are just as excited about Cholula's performance as part of our flavor solutions portfolio. With our broad presence across food service channels, we have strengthened Cholula's go-to-market model through 2021. we continue to build on Cholula's strong front-of-house presence, which builds trial and brand awareness beyond food service with significant double-digit growth of portion control packs as more restaurant meals are now consumed as delivery or takeaway. Leveraging our culinary foundation and insights on menu trends, we've also driven double-digit growth in our back-of-house food service penetration through recipe inspiration and increasing Cholula's menu participation. We are growing with big national accounts and smaller independent restaurants, as well as expanding distribution through leveraging the strength of our distributor relationships where Cholula was less developed. We are succeeding with new menu items, including both permanent ones and limited-time offers. Our momentum with Cholula is very strong, and we are confident our initiatives will continue to build on consumers' growing passion for heat and drive further growth of this fantastic brand. Now, turning to Fona, the addition of this leading North American flavor manufacturer is accelerating the growth of our global flavors platform. We are thrilled our first year of owning Fona has been a record year for the business with double-digit sales growth compared to last year. Beverages with particular strength in the fast-growing performance nutrition category continue to drive significant growth for Fona of 15% compared to last year. Phona's new product wins and its pipeline potential have also hit record highs, fueling future growth. We're continuing to drive growth and create new opportunities with our global footprint. We are leveraging Giotti's infrastructure to expand Phona's flavors into the EMEA region. In our APZ region, the combination of our infrastructure, which includes our recent flavor capability investments in China, and Phona's local application and flavor creation talent, is unlocking further potential to accelerate flavor growth in that region. And just a few months ago, we began our expansion of bonus footprint to increase our America's flavor manufacturing capacity, an investment we planned as part of our acquisition model, enabling us to deliver the future growth we expect. By expanding our breadth and depth in developing flavors, while also combining our infrastructures to provide greater scale as well as increasing our manufacturing capacity and technical bench strength, we are providing our collective customers with a more comprehensive product offering and fueling more opportunities for growth across our entire portfolio. We are cross-selling products across our customer base, and we've also realized the benefit of our combination within our own portfolio. For instance, with Boda now leveraging McCormick's USDA savory flavors and developing flavors for pet food applications, The combination of our capabilities has created new opportunities to participate on briefs that capitalize on core strengths across McCormick and FONA, enabling us to build a robust pipeline of opportunities and, importantly, win and grow with our customers. We are thrilled with both Cholula and FONA, our enthusiasm for these acquisitions, as well as our confidence that we will continue to achieve our plans accelerate growth of these portfolios, and drive shareholder value has only continued to strengthen. In summary, for 2021, we continue to capture the momentum we have gained in our consumer segment and the at-home part of our flavor solution segment. We have successfully navigated through the pandemic-related disruption in the away-from-home portion of our flavor solution segment, and Celula and Thona have proven to be fantastic additions to our portfolio. All of this reinforces our confidence for continued growth in 2022. Global demand for flavor remains the foundation of our sales growth, and we have intentionally focused on great, fast-growing categories that will continue to differentiate our performance. We are capitalizing on the long-term consumer trends that accelerated during the pandemic, healthy and flavorful cooking, increased digital engagement, trusted brands, and purpose-minded practices. These long-term trends and the rising global demand for great taste are as relevant today as ever, with the younger generations fueling them at a greater rate. Our alignment with these consumer trends, combined with the breadth and reach of our global portfolio and the successful execution of our strategies, sustainably positions us for future growth. In this current dynamic and fast-paced environment, we remain focused on long-term sustainable growth. As I mentioned earlier, we continue to experience cost pressures from higher inflation and broad-based supply chain challenges similar to the rest of the industry. To partially offset rising costs, we raised prices where appropriate late last year and began to realize the impact of those actions in our fourth quarter sales growth. As costs have continued to accelerate, we are raising prices again where appropriate in 2022. These pricing actions are on track, and we appreciate our customers working with us to navigate this environment. Additionally, our plans to mitigate cost pressures include our CCI-led cost savings, revenue management initiatives, and taking prudent steps to reduce discretionary spend where possible. Throughout our history, we have grown and compounded our growth, regardless of short-term pressures, and plan to do so again in 2022 as we continue to accelerate our momentum and drive growth from a position of strength. Across our consumer segment, our 2022 plans include continuing to build consumers' confidence in the kitchen, inspire their home cooking and flavor exploration, and accelerate flavor usage, including delivering on the global demand for heat. We also plan to strengthen our consumer relationships at every point of purchase, as well as create a delicious, healthy, and sustainable future. With our investments in brand marketing, category management, and new products, we expect to drive further sales growth. For our flavor solution segment, the execution of our strategy to migrate our portfolio to more technically insulated and value-added categories will continue in 2022. Our plans include targeting opportunities to grow with our customers in attractive, high-growth categories, continuing to leverage our broad technology platform to develop clean and natural solutions that taste great and strengthening our leadership in heat. With our culinary-inspired innovation and our passion for creating a flawless customer experience, we plan to continue our new product momentum and drive further sales growth. Our achievements in 2021, our effective growth strategies, as well as our robust operating momentum all bolster our confidence in delivering another strong year of growth and performance in 2022. We're looking forward to sharing more details regarding our 2022 growth plan in just a few weeks at Cagney. In summary, we have a strong foundation and are well-equipped to navigate through this ever-changing environment, responding with agility to volatility and disruption, while remaining focused on the long-term objectives, strategies, and values that have made us so successful. We are in attractive categories and are capitalizing on the long-term consumer trends that are in our favor. A combination of our strong business model, the investments we've made, the capabilities we've built, and the power of our people position us well to continue our robust growth momentum. Importantly, our strong growth trajectory supports our confidence and our long-term financial algorithm to drive continuous value creation through top-line growth and margin expansion. Our fundamentals, momentum, and growth outlook are stronger than ever. Performance employees around the world have done a tremendous job of navigating this past year's volatile environment. Their agility, teamwork, and passion for flavor drive our momentum and success, and I want to thank them for their dedicated efforts and engagement. Now, I'll turn it over to Mike. Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Before I provide additional remarks on our fourth quarter and full year results, I would like to build upon Lawrence's comments on Cholula and Sona. and highlight how we have delivered on our acquisition plans now that we have completed the first year. Starting on slide 19, as Lawrence already shared, we have created value by driving sales growth according to our plans. In addition, Cholula was margin accretive to the gross and operating margins in both of our segments, and Fono was accretive to the margins in the flavor solution segment. We are delivering against our synergy and one-time cost estimates, in fact, doing better than our acquisition plans. Starting with our original synergy targets for Cholula, we have achieved the targeted $10 million to be fully realized by 2022. For FONA, we are on track to achieve our targeted $7 million by the end of 2023. We are also achieving revenue synergies as expected. Our transaction and integration costs for Cholula and FONA are both lower than our acquisition plans. Early in 2021, we took the opportunity in a low interest rate environment to optimize our long-term financing following the acquisitions, raising $1 billion through the issuance of 5-year 0.9% notes and 10-year 1.85% notes, and it therefore realized lower interest expense than we originally projected. Additionally, our ongoing amortization expense is favorable to both of the acquisition models. In summary, we executed our year one acquisition plans in line with and in some areas better than our models, including the adjusted earnings per share accretion we expected. Successful acquisitions are a key part of our long-term growth strategy. Importantly, we have a proven track record of driving value through acquisitions and increasing the performance of acquired businesses, and Cholula and Fona are adding to that history. Now for our fourth quarter and full-year performance, starting on slide 20. Our fourth quarter capped off a year of record sales growth, During the fourth quarter, we grew constant currency sales 10% with higher volume and product mix, acquisitions and pricing, each contributing to the increases in both segments. Our organic sales growth was 6%, driven by strong growth in both the consumer and flavor solution segments. And incremental sales from our Cholula and Fona acquisitions contributed 4% across both segments. Versus the fourth quarter of 2019, we grew sales 15% in constant currency, with both our consumer and flavor solution segments growing double digits. During the fourth quarter, our consumer segment sales grew 9% in constant currency, driven by higher volume and product mix, pricing actions, and a 2% increase from our Cholula acquisition. The year-over-year increase was led by double-digit growth in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, sales grew 14% in constant currency, led by the Americas. On slide 21, consumer segment sales in the Americas increased 13% in constant currency, driven primarily by higher volume and product mix, as the sustained shift to at-home consumption continues to drive increased demand, as well as lapping last year's capacity constraints. Pricing actions and a 3% increase from the Cholula acquisition also contributed to sales growth. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, sales increased 19% in constant currency, driven by broad-based growth across branded products, as well as an increase from the Cholula acquisition. A decline in private label sales partially offset the branded growth. In EMEA, constant currency consumer sales declined 5% from a year ago due to lapping the high demand across the region last year. On a two-year basis, sales increased 5% in constant currency, driven by growth in spices and seasonings, hot sauce, and mustard. consumer sales in the Asia Pacific region increased 11% in constant currency due to the recovery of branded food service sales in China, or away from home products, and higher sales of cooking at home products across the region. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, sales were flat, with growth across the region offset by a sales decline in India due to the exit of some lower margin business. Turning to our flavor solution segment in slide 24, we grew fourth quarter constant currency sales 12%, including a 7% increase from our FONA and Cholula acquisitions. The year-over-year increase was led by double-digit growth in the Americas and EMEA regions. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, Flavor Solutions segment sales grew 16% in constant currency. In the Americas, Flavor Solutions constant currency sales grew 13% year-over-year, with FONA and Cholula contributing 11%. Organic sales growth was driven by the recovery of demand from branded food service and other restaurant customers, higher sales to packaged food and beverage companies with strength in snack seasonings, and pricing. On a two-year basis, sales increased 15% in constant currency versus 2019, driven by higher sales from acquisitions and packaged food and beverage companies, partially offset by the exit of some lower margin business in other parts of the portfolio. In EMEA, constant currency sales grew 16% compared to last year due to increased sales to QSRs and branded food service customers, as well as continued growth momentum with packaged food and beverage companies. Constant currency sales increased 26% versus the fourth quarter of 2019, driven by strong sales growth with packaged food and beverage companies and QSR customers. In the Asia Pacific region, labor solution sales rose 1% in constant currency versus last year, and increased 8% in constant currency versus the fourth quarter of 2019, both driven by QSR growth and partially impacted by the timing of our customers' limited-time offers and promotional activities. As seen on slide 28, adjusted operating income, which excludes transaction and integration costs related to the Cholula and FONA acquisitions, as well as special charges, increased 6% in the fourth quarter versus the year-ago period, with minimal impact from currency. Adjusted operating income in the consumer segment increased 14%, or in constant currency, 13%. Higher sales and CCI-led cost savings more than offset cost pressures from inflation and logistics challenges. Brand marketing investments, as planned, were 10% lower in the quarter following an 18% consumer segment increase in the fourth quarter of last year. For the full year, we increased our brand marketing investments 3%. In the flavor solution segment, adjusted operating income declined 16% or 15% in constant currency. Higher sales and CCI-led cost savings were more than offset by the cost pressures in this segment, unfavorable product mix, and costs related to supply chain investments. Across both segments, incremental investment spending for our ERP program was offset by lower COVID-19 costs compared to last year. As seen on slide 29, adjusted gross profit margin declined 150 basis points driven primarily by the net impact of cost pressures we are experiencing and the phase-in of our pricing actions. Our selling general and administrative expense as a percentage of sales declined 70 basis points driven by leverage from sales growth and the reduction in brand marketing I just mentioned. These impacts netted to an adjusted operating margin decline of 80 basis points as we had expected. For the fiscal year, adjusted gross profit margin declined 140 basis points, primarily driven by the cost pressures we experienced in the second half of the year and the lag in pricing. Adjusted operating income grew 6% in constant currency, with the consumer segments adjusted operating income increasing 1% and the flavor solution segment 23%. Both segments were driven by higher sales and CCI-led cost savings, partially offset by cost pressures and incremental strategic investment spending. Adjusted operating margin declined 80 basis points for the fiscal year, driven by the adjusted gross profit margin decline. Turning to income taxes, our fourth quarter adjusted effective tax rate was 21.3%, compared to 22.9% in the year-ago period. Both periods were favorably impacted by discrete tax items. For the full year, our adjusted tax rate was 20.1%, comparable to 19.9% in 2020. Adjusted income from unconsolidated operations declined 40% versus the fourth quarter of 2020 and 5% for the full year. The elimination of higher earnings associated with minority interest impacted both comparisons unfavorably. Our adjusted income from operations was also unfavorably impacted by the elimination of ongoing income from eastern continents. following the sale of our minority stake earlier this year. For the fiscal year, this was partially offset by strong performance from our McCormick New Mexico joint venture. At the bottom line, as shown on slide 32, fourth quarter 2021 adjusted earnings per share increased to $0.84 from $0.79 in the year-ago period. And for the year, adjusted earnings per share increased 8% to $3.05 for fiscal year 2021. The increases for both comparisons were driven by higher adjusted operating income attributable to strong sales growth. On slide 33, we summarize highlights for cash flow and the year-end balance sheet. Our cash flow from operations for the year was $828 million. The decrease from last year was primarily due to the higher use of cash associated with working capital and the payment of transaction and integration costs. The working capital comparison includes the impact of higher inventory levels to support significantly increased demand and to mitigate supply and service issues, as well as buffer against cost volatility. We've returned $363 million of this cash to our shareholders through dividends and used $278 million for capital expenditures in 2021. Our capital expenditures included growth investments and optimization projects across the globe. For example, our new UK Flavor Solutions manufacturing facility, our ERP business transformation, additional hot sauce capacity in the U.S., and our new U.S. Northeast Distribution Center. In 2022, we expect our capital expenditures to be higher than 2021 as we continue to spend on the initiatives we have in progress, as well as to support our investments to fuel future growth. We expect 2022 to be a year of strong cash flow driven by profit and working capital initiatives. And our priority is to continue to have a balanced use of cash funding investments to drive growth, returning a significant portion to our shareholders through dividends and paying down debt. Now turning to our 2022 financial outlook on slide 34. We are well positioned for another strong year of growth and performance in 2022. we are projecting strong top line and operating performance with earnings growth partially offset by a higher projected effective tax rate. We also expect there will be an estimated one percentage point unfavorable impact currency rates on sales, adjusted operating income, and adjusted earnings per share. On the top line, we expect to grow constant currency sales 4% to 6%. As Lawrence mentioned, we are taking further pricing actions in 2022 and as a result expect pricing to be a significant driver of our growth. We expect volume and product mix to be impacted by elasticities, although at a lower level than we have experienced historically. We plan to drive growth through the strength of our brands, as well as our category management, brand marketing, new products, and customer engagement growth plans. Our volume and product mix will also continue to be impacted by our pruning of lower margin business from our portfolio. Our 2022 adjusted gross margin is projected to range between comparable to 2021 to 50 basis points lower than 2021. This adjusted gross margin compression reflects the anticipated impact of a mid-teens increase in cost inflation, an unfavorable impact of sales mix between segments, a favorable impact from pricing, and CCI-led cost savings. As a reminder, we price to offset dollar cost increases. We do not margin up. This has a dilutive impact on our adjusted gross margin and is the primary driver of our projected compression. We expect to grow our adjusted operating income 8% to 10% in constant currency, which reflects our robust operating momentum, a reduction in COVID-19-related costs, and our continuing investment in ERP business transformation. This projection includes inflationary pressure in the mid-teens, a low single-digit increase in brand marketing investments, and our CCI-led cost savings target of approximately $85 million. Our cost savings target reflects the challenges of realizing commodity and packaging cost savings in the current inflationary environment. Importantly, we believe there continues to be a long runway to achieve cost savings in 2022 and beyond. Based on the expected timing of certain items, we expect our profit growth to be weighted to the second half of the year. Our additional 2022 pricing actions are expected to be phased in during the second quarter. Cost inflation will have a more significant impact in the first half of 2022 as cost pressures accelerated in the back half of last year. We also expect our ERP investment to be higher earlier in the year versus 2021. As a reminder, we are also lapping a very strong business performance in the first quarter of 2021. Our 2022 adjusted effective income tax rate is projected to be 22% to 23% based upon our estimated mix of earnings by geography, as well as factoring in a level of discrete impacts. This outlook versus our 2021 adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be a headwind to our 2022 adjusted earnings per share growth of approximately 3%. Our 2022 adjusted earnings per share expectations reflect strong operating profit growth of 8% to 10% in constant currency, partially offset by the tax headwind I just mentioned. This results in an increase of 4% to 6%, or 5% to 7% in constant currency. Our guidance range for adjusted earnings per share in 2022 is $3.17 to $3.22, compared to $3.05 of adjusted earnings per share in 2021. In summary, we are well positioned with our broad and advantage flavor portfolio, our robust operating momentum, and effective growth strategies to drive another year of strong growth and performance. Now that Mike has shared our financial results and outlook in more detail, I would like to recap the key takeaways as seen on slide 35. We drove record sales growth in 2021. Our strong operating performance underscored the strength of our business model the value of our products and capabilities, and the resilience of our employees. We achieved our one-year Cholula and FONA acquisition plans. Cholula and FONA have proven to be fantastic additions to our portfolio. We have a demonstrated history of managing through short-term pressures and driving growth as we did in the fourth quarter. McCormick has grown and compounded that growth successfully over the years regardless of the environment. We have a strong foundation We are in attractive categories, and we're capitalizing on the long-term consumer trends that are in our favor. We are confident that our broad and advantaged flavor portfolio, our robust operating momentum, and effective growth strategies will drive another year of strong growth in 2022 and build value for our shareholders. Now, let's turn to your questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 from your telephone keypad and a confirmation tone to indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. And our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Please receive your questions.

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