Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.

Welcome to Marsh McLennan's conference call. Today's call is being recorded. Second quarter 2021 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at MMC.com. Please note that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements, including certain expectations related to COVID-19 and other matters. Forward-looking statements are subject to risk and uncertainty, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website. During the call today, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. I'll now turn this call over to Dan Glazer, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our second quarter results reported earlier today. I'm Dan Glaser, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan. Joining me on the call today is Mark McGivney, our CFO, and the CEOs of our businesses, Tom Dornan of Marsh, Peter Hearn of Pat Carpenter, Martín Forón of Mercer, and Nick Studer of Olive Lineman. Also with us this morning is Sarah DeWitt, head of investor relations. I'd like to welcome Nick, who became CEO of Oliver Wyman July 1st. Nick has led many of Oliver Wyman's major practices in his 23 years with the business. I look forward to seeing Oliver Wyman continue to grow and thrive under his leadership. On behalf of the executive committee, I also want to thank Scott McDonald for his many contributions during his distinguished 20-year career at the firm. Marshall McLennan had an outstanding second quarter. We are well-positioned and benefiting from an abundance of opportunities. We are stronger and have broader capabilities close to the general acquisition. We are benefiting from what may be the strongest economic rebound in nearly four decades led by our largest region, the U.S. There is high demand for our advice and solutions in this time of uncertainty and in the face of challenging market conditions. We are seeing a flight to quality and stability, which is contributing to high levels of business growth and client retention and is helping us attract talent. And there is a long runaway for growth as we think about major protection gaps around the world, new emerging risks, digitization, workforce of the future, and under-penetrated markets such as small commercial. We are focused on capitalizing on these opportunities, and I am proud of our execution in the quarter. We generated record second quarter revenue and earnings, the best underlying growth of any quarter in two decades, and we were appalled for an excellent year. The strength of our results was broad-based with each of our businesses and virtually all of our major geographies seeing an acceleration in growth. Our adjusted EPS increased by an impressive 33%, and we generated margin expansion despite challenging expense comparisons. As we look ahead, the economic outlook for the U.S. and most of the major countries we operate in is encouraging. However, the pandemic is not over yet. Vaccine hesitancy creates risk. And there are many parts of the world where vaccine availability is limited. As a result, much of the world is experiencing another wave of the pandemic with rising case counts due to the spread of variants. In addition, the shape of this economic recovery is very different from any we have seen before. Some industries are thriving while others are being impacted by supply chain disruption, inventory issues, and labor shortages. Navigating this dynamic landscape is challenging, even confounding for some businesses. The growth opportunity for Marshall McLennan is significant during this time of uncertainty and recovery. We are aiding and guiding our clients through the complexities of the new normal, as well as helping them tackle issues like climate risk, cyber, diversity and inclusion, employee safety and well-being, and workforce disruptions. Our ability to provide differentiated, high-quality solutions to our clients rests on our talent and expertise. Our colleagues are our number one competitive advantage. And with the potential for industry consolidation, we see a meaningful opportunity to invest in hiring and deepen our world-class talent pool. We have strong momentum, and as we mentioned last quarter, our efforts are focused on resurgence and expansion. Let me provide some examples of how we are helping our clients address complex issues of the day, specifically two major challenges, cybersecurity and climate change. Cybersecurity is one of the greatest risks facing society. Supply chain and ransomware attacks continue to rise with a number of recent high-profile attacks affecting organizations across all sectors and segments. from technology to critical infrastructure and health care. Washington, D.C. is helping clients manage cyber risk. Increasingly, we are bringing our businesses together to leverage all of our expertise, data, and relationships with public and private partners to help clients become more resilient. Our growth and participation in cyber extends well beyond the placement of insurance. Under the leadership of John Doyle, we are leveraging the collective capabilities of Marsh, Guy Carpenter, and Oliver Wyman to bring cyber solutions from across our enterprise to clients. Not only are we helping clients with risk transfer through our insurance businesses, but through our cyber risk assessment tools, we help clients measure and quantify their cyber risk exposure to better inform decisions about cybersecurity, risk mitigation, and transfer strategies. We also help clients with incident response before, during, and after events, as well as a part of our broader efforts to help clients build resilience in the face of a constantly evolving threat landscape. A second defining challenge of our time is climate change. Climate and the broader topic of ESG are complex, multidimensional challenges virtually all companies face. The threats of a changing climate present obvious questions for companies, touching everything from strategy to resilience to their workforce and how they communicate. Even though climate change is a long-term threat, the issue is proximate and has immediate consequences as firms deal with calls for action, strategies to respond, and more input from various stakeholders. Led by Nick Studer, we are bringing together our businesses to help our clients anticipate climate risk and opportunities. For example, Oliver Wyman is working with our insurance businesses to support clients in the transition to a low-carbon economy and manage climate risk. We are assisting clients with the development of carbon-like business models and to de-risk investment in sustainable technologies. At Marsh & Guy Carpenter, we are helping to develop innovative climate solutions to bridge protection gaps. We assist clients with stress testing models, quantifying the impact of climate change, and providing risk management and insurance services to protect against climate impacts. And Mercer's responsible investment business helps stewards and fiduciaries of investment pools understand how a changing climate could impact investment returns in the future and anticipate them today. Overall, we are uniquely positioned to help our clients with their most pressing challenges. Let me spend a moment on current P&C insurance market conditions. The second quarter marks the 15th consecutive quarter of rate increases in the commercial P&C insurance marketplace. The March global insurance market index shows price increases of 15% year over year versus 18% in the first quarter. The pace of price increases continue to moderate, but still remains high, reflecting elevated loss activity and concerns about inflation and low interest rates. Global property insurance was up 12%, and global financial and professional lines were up 34%, driven in part by steep cyber increases, while global casualty rates were up 6% on average, and U.S. workers' compensation rates declined modestly in the quarter. Keep in mind, our index skews to large-account business. However, U.S. small and middle-market insurance pricing continues to rise as well, although the magnitude of price increases is less than for large, complex accounts. Turning to reinsurance, Scott Carpenter's global property catastrophe rate online index increased 6% every year. In the second quarter, the market was more orderly and balanced than a year ago, reflecting adequate capital and an increased willingness to deploy capacity. Measured and moderate single-digit rate increases were typical after two years of double-digit rate increases. However, programs that had significant losses saw higher increases, and capacity remained constrained on certain lines of business, most notably cyber. Concerns remain around inflation, losses in certain lines, extreme weather events, and the beginning of a new hurricane season. It is in times like these where our expertise and capabilities shine. We are working hard to help our clients navigate the current environment. Now let me turn to our fantastic second quarter financial performance. We generated adjusted EPS of $1.75 which is up 33% versus a year ago, driven by strong top-line growth and continued low levels of T&E. Total revenue increased 20% versus a year ago and rose 13% on an underlying basis, the highest quarterly growth in two decades. Underlying revenue grew 13% in RIS and 12% in consulting. Marsh grew 14% in the quarter on an underlying basis, the highest quarterly underlying growth in nearly two decades, and benefited from stronger business and renewal growth. Scott Carpenter grew 12% on an underlying basis in the quarter, continuing its stream of excellent results. Mercer underlying revenue grew 6% in the quarter, the highest in almost a decade. Oliver Wyman posted record reported underlying revenue growth of 28%. Overall, the second quarter saw adjusted operating income growth of 24%, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 90 basis points year over year. As we look out for the rest of 2021, we are well positioned. With 9% underlying revenue growth year to date, our full year growth will be strong. We expect favorable market dynamics to persist for at least the remainder of the year, although the pace of growth could moderate versus the second quarter as year-over-year comparisons become more challenging. We also expect to generate margin expansion for the full year and strong growth in adjusted EPS. With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results. Thank you, Danny. Good morning. Our results were excellent, with record second quarter revenue and earnings, the best quarterly underlying growth in two decades, meaningful margin expansion, and significant growth in adjusted earnings. Highlights from our second quarter performance included the strongest underlying growth at March since the first quarter of 2003, the strongest at Guy Carpenter in 15 years, a solid rebound of 6% at Mercer, and record reported underlying growth at Oliver Warnham. Second quarter growth in adjusted earnings per share was also impressive, rising at the fastest pace of any quarter in more than a decade. Consolidated revenue increased 20% in the second quarter to $5 billion, reflecting underlying growth of 13%. Operating income in the quarter was $1.2 billion, an increase of 39% over the prior year. Adjusted operating income increased 24% to $1.2 billion, and our adjusted operating margin increased 90 basis points to 26.4%. App EPS was $1.60 in the quarters, and adjusted EPS increased 33% to $1.75. For the first six months of 2021, underlying revenue growth was 9%. Our adjusted operating income grew 22% to $2.6 billion. Our adjusted operating margin increased 170 basis points, Our adjusted EPS increased 26% to $3.74. Looking at risk insurance services, second quarter revenue was $3.1 billion, up 21% compared with a year ago, or 13% on an underlying basis. Operating income increased 37% to $950 million. Adjusted operating income increased 22% to $927 million. and our adjusted operating margin expanded 30 basis points to 32.4%. For the first six months of the year, revenue was $6.4 billion, with underlying growth 10%. Adjusted operating income for the first half of the year increased 19% to $2 billion, with a margin of 34.5%, up 110 basis points from the same period a year ago. At March, revenue in the quarter was $2.7 billion, up 23% compared with a year ago, with 14% on an underlying basis. Even excluding the impact of the revenue adjustment we recorded a year ago, underlying revenue at March was up 12%. Growth in the quarter was broad-based and was driven by robust new business growth and solid retention. The U.S. and Canada region delivered another exceptional quarter, with underlying revenue growth of 15%, highest results since we began reporting this segment. In international, underlying growth was 13%. EMEA was up 16%, Asia Pacific was up 10%, and Latin America grew 2%. For the first six months of the year, Marsha's revenue was $5 billion, with underlying growth of 11%. U.S. and Canada underlying growth was 12%, and international was up 9%. Guy Carpenter's second quarter revenue was $488 million, up 13% compared with a year ago, or 12% on an underlying basis. Growth was broad-based across all geographies and specialties. Guy Carpenter has now achieved 7% or higher underlying growth in six of the last eight quarters. For the first six months of the year, Guy Carpenter generated $1.4 billion of revenue and 8% underlying growth. In the consulting segment, revenue in the quarter was $1.9 billion, up 17% from a year ago, or 12% on an underlying basis. Operating income increased 35% to $344 million. Adjusted operating income increased 34% to $356 million, and the adjusted operating margin expanded by 220 basis points to 19.5%. Consulting generated revenue of $3.8 billion for the first six months of 2021, representing underlying growth of 8%. Adjusted operating income for the first half of the year increased 31% to $726 million. Mercer's revenue was $1.3 billion in the quarter, up 6% on an underlying basis, representing a meaningful acceleration from the first quarter. Career grew 15% on an underlying basis, reflecting the rebound in the economy and business confidence. Wealth increased 4% on an underlying basis, reflecting strong growth in investment management, offset by a modest decline in defined benefits. Our assets under delegated management grew to $393 billion at the end of the second quarter, up 28% year over year and 3% sequentially, benefiting from net new inflows and market gains. Health underlying revenue growth was 4% in the quarter, driven by strength internationally. Oliver Wyman's revenue in the quarter was $618 million, an increase of 28% on an underlying basis. The second quarter results represent a sharp rebound from the contraction we saw in the second quarter last year. For the first six months of the year, revenue at Oliver Wyman was $1.2 billion, an increase of 19% on an underlying basis. Adjusted corporate expense was $62 million in the second quarter. Foreign exchange was a modest benefit to earnings in the quarter. Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX to have a minimal impact on EPS for the remainder of the year. Our other net benefit credit was $71 million in the quarter. For the remaining two quarters of the year, we expect our other net benefit credit will be mostly consistent with the level in the second quarter. Investment income was $19 million in the second quarter on a gap basis and $18 million on an adjusted basis, and mainly reflects gains on our private equity portfolio. Interest expense in the second quarter was $110 million compared to $132 million in the second quarter of 2020, reflecting lower debt levels in the period. Based on our current forecast, we expect approximately $110 million of interest expense in the third quarter. Our adjusted effective tax rate in the second quarter was 24.4% compared to the 25% in the second quarter last year. Our tax rate benefited from favorable discrete items, the largest of which was the accounting for share-based compensation. Excluding discrete items, our effective adjusted tax rate was approximately 25.5%. Our gas tax rate was 31.6% in the second quarter, up from 26.2% in the second quarter of 2020. The increase reflects a $100 million impact from the re-evaluation of deferred tax liabilities due to an increase in the UK statutory tax rate that goes into effect in 2023. Through the first half of the year, our adjusted effective tax rate was 24.4%, compared with 24% last year. Based on the current environment, we continue to expect an adjusted effective tax rate between 25% and 26% for 2021, excluding discrete items. As we currently look out for the balance of the year, we expect our top-line growth to remain strong, reflecting the economic rebound and favorable environment. Keep in mind the second quarter faced the most favorable year-over-year comparison for revenue growth. As we progress through the rest of the year, this, combined with continued normalization of expenses, will result in more challenging comparisons. However, our businesses have momentum, and we expect positive trends to continue, resulting in strong performance in the second half and a terrific full year. Turning to capital management, our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $10.8 billion of total debt. This reflects repayment of $500 million of senior notes in April, which completed our JLC-related deleveraging. Our next scheduled debt maturity is in January of 2022, when $500 million of senior notes mature. We continue to expect to deploy approximately $3.5 billion and possibly more of capital in 2021, of which at least $3 billion will be deployed across dividends, acquisitions, and sharing purchases. The ultimate level of share repurchases will depend on how the M&A pipeline develops. Last week, we raised our dividends 15%, which is the largest increase since the third quarter of 1998. We also repurchased 2.4 million shares of our stock for $322 million in the second quarter. Our cash position at the end of the second quarter was $888 million. Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $993 million and included $241 million for dividends, $322 million for sharing purchases, and $430 million for acquisitions. For the first six months, uses of cash totaled $1.4 billion and included $478 million for dividends, $434 million for sharing purchases, and $473 million for acquisitions. Overall, we had an exceptional second quarter, positioning us well to deliver strong growth in both revenue and adjusted earnings in 2021. And with that, I'm happy to turn it back to Dan. Terrific. Thanks, Mark. And operator, we are ready to begin Q&A.

In the interest of addressing questions from as many participants as possible, we would ask that participants limit themselves to one question and one follow-up question. To ask a question, you will need to press start on your phone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Elise Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Hi, thanks. Good morning.