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10/21/2021
Welcome to Marsh McLennan's conference call. Today's call is being recorded. Third quarter 2021 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com. Please note that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website. During the call today, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. I'll now turn this over to Dan Glazer, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.
Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter results reported earlier today. I'm Dan Glazer, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan. Joining me on the call today is Mark McGivney, our CFO, and the CEOs of our businesses, John Doyle of Marsh, Peter Hearn of Guy Carpenter, Martine Furlong of Mercer, and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning is Sarah DeWitt, Head of Investor Relations. Marsh McLennan had another outstanding quarter. Our third quarter results reflect strong momentum across all of our businesses. Our continued strength represents a combination of the current environment as well as impressive day-to-day execution across the firms. Although there continues to be uncertainty and volatility in the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, we are seeing solid demand for our differentiated advice and solutions. Even as COVID-19 continues to pose risk in many parts of the world, vaccine rollouts are having a positive impact. We are taking advantage of opportunities to add to our deep bench of world-class talent. At the core of our business is a focus on our colleagues, and we are dedicated to Marsh McLennan being an exciting and dynamic place to work for outstanding people. And we continue to innovate and leverage the collective strengths of our organization to help clients address their most pressing concerns, including climate, diversity and inclusion, the future of work, cyber, and digital strategies. As we have discussed, 2021 represents Marsh McLennan's 150th year, and success over such a long period of time requires constant innovation and investment to deliver sustained growth and profitability. I'd like to discuss just a few recent examples of how we are innovating to develop new, unique client solutions. Nick Studer leads our firm-wide climate initiative. We view climate as a significant opportunity and we are well positioned to help clients with this critical issue. In October, Oliver Wyman launched the Climate Action Navigator, drawing on insights from across the company. This product helps public and private sector leaders plot a path through climate science, identifying emissions at the industry and regional level, and quantifying the effects of multiple different carbon reduction technologies and actions. We believe these tools will give business and government leaders vital insights to achieve their long-term climate goals and be a significant enabler of the transition to low-carbon, climate-resilient investment in the corporate sector. Mercer recently launched SkillsEdge, an innovative platform allowing employers to determine the most important skills for their future and design a talent strategy to assess, acquire, and retain them. Skills Edge provides quantitative insight into the demand and value of skills and supports both employees and organizations in rapidly reskilling for the future of work. And just last week, under the leadership of John Doyle, we launched our Cyber Risk Analytics Center. This brings together cyber risk data and analytics expertise across our firm and provides clients with a comprehensive assessment of their cyber threats, existing and future controls, and the potential economic impact. We are one enterprise, and these are just a few recent examples of how we bring together and leverage knowledge and capabilities across the firm to offer comprehensive solutions to our clients and address their most pressing concerns. We are a growth company, as demonstrated by our track record. Growth doesn't just happen. It takes consistent vision, alignment, commitment, and execution. Since closing our acquisition of JLT, we have grown our total consolidated revenue by 27%, our adjusted EPS by 34%, and our colleague base by 22%. Achieving and sustaining growth requires consistent reinvestment in the business. We always strive to balance delivering results in the short term with while investing for the long term. In 2021, we generated year-to-date adjusted EPS growth that is higher than any annual period in over three decades, while at the same time investing for the future and making a significant press on hiring. We grew our headcount year-to-date by nearly 5,000, or around 7%, mostly organic ads with an emphasis on client-facing roles. We expect this influx of talent will drive growth, add to our capabilities, and enhance our ability to serve clients. Now let me provide an update on current P&C insurance market conditions. Many of the factors that drove the market to harden over the last few years continue, suggesting an inflection to a soft market is unlikely in the near term. The Marsh Global Insurance Market Index showed price increases of 15%, year over year, consistent with the second quarter. This marks the 16th consecutive quarter of rate increases in the commercial P&C insurance marketplace. Looking at pricing by line, the March market index showed global property insurance was up 9 percent. Global financial and professional lines were up 32 percent, driven in part by a near doubling in cyber rates. And global casualty rates were up high single digits on average. As a reminder, our index skews to large account business. However, small and middle market insurance rates continue to rise as well, although less than for large complex accounts. Turning to reinsurance, measured and moderate rate increases in global property catastrophe reinsurance witnessed in the first half of 2021 could persist throughout the remainder of the year, reflecting adequate capacity offset by elevated global catastrophes concerns around real and social inflation, and a continuation of large individual risk losses. 2021 marks another year of significant catastrophe losses. Hurricane Ida generated material losses in both the southeast and northeast. This is in addition to a record level of flood losses in Europe, flooding in China, and the continuation of wildfire losses in many parts of the world. Marsha McLennan remains focused on helping our clients navigate these challenging market conditions and making a difference for them in the moments that matter. Now, let me turn to our terrific third quarter financial performance. We generated adjusted EPS of $1.08, which is up 32% versus a year ago, driven by strong top-line growth and continued low levels of T&E. Total revenue increased 16% versus a year ago and rose 13% on an underlying basis, the second consecutive quarter of record underlying growth in over two decades. Underlying revenue grew 13% in RIS and 12% in consulting. Marsh grew 13% in the quarter on an underlying basis and benefited from strong new business and renewal growth. Guy Carpenter grew 15% on an underlying basis in the quarter, continuing its string of excellent results. Mercer underlying revenue grew 7% in the quarter, the highest in over a decade. Oliver Wyman grew underlying revenue 25%, the second consecutive quarter in excess of 20%. Overall, the third quarter saw adjusted operating income growth of 19%, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 10 basis points year over year. Given our excellent third quarter and year-to-date performance, we are on track for a terrific year. We expect to generate the best underlying revenue and adjusted EPS growth in over two decades and expand margins for the 14th consecutive year. Our entire organization is on its front foot, focused and aligned, and this is evident in our excellent results. With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results.
Thank you, Dan, and good morning. Our results were outstanding with record third quarter revenue, second consecutive quarter of double-digit underlying growth, margin expansion, and significant earnings growth. Highlights from our third quarter performance included the second straight quarter of 13% underlying growth in RIS, with 13% at Marsh and 15% at Guy Carpenter, and the second consecutive quarter of 12% underlying growth in consulting, with 7% at Mercer and 25% at Oliver Weinman. Growth in adjusted earnings per share exceeded 30% for the second quarter in a row. Consolidated revenue increased 16% in the third quarter to $4.6 billion, reflecting underlying growth of 13%. Operating income in the quarter was $740 million, an increase of 37%. Adjusted operating income increased 19% to $759 million, and our adjusted operating margin increased 10 basis points to 18.5%. GAAP EPS was $1.05 in the quarter, and adjusted EPS increased 32% to $1.08. For the first nine months of 2021, underlying revenue growth was 10%, Our adjusted operating income grew 21% to $3.4 billion. Our adjusted operating margin increased 120 basis points, and our adjusted EPS increased 28% to $4.82. Looking at risk and insurance services, third quarter revenue was $2.7 billion, up 17% compared with a year ago, or 13% on an underlying basis. operating income increased 21% to $403 million. Adjusted operating income also increased 21% to $469 million, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 20 basis points to 20.4%. For the first nine months of the year, revenue was $9 billion, with underlying growth of 11%. Adjusted operating income for the first nine months of the year increased 20% to $2.5 billion, with a margin of 30.3%, up 80 basis points from the same period a year ago. At March, revenue in the quarter was $2.4 billion, up 17% compared with a year ago, or 13% on an underlying basis. Growth in the quarter was broad-based and driven by nearly 40% new business growth and solid retention. U.S. and Canada delivered another exceptional quarter with underlying revenue growth of 16%. and international underlying growth was 9%. Latin America grew 12%, its best growth since the fourth quarter of 2015. Asia Pacific was up 9%, and EMEA was up 8%. For the first nine months of the year, Marsha's revenue was $7.3 billion, with underlying growth of 12%. U.S. and Canada underlying growth was 14%, and international was up 9%. Guy Carpenter's third quarter revenue was $314 million, up 15% compared with a year ago on both a GAAP and underlying basis. Growth was broad-based across geographies and specialties. Guy Carpenter has now achieved 7% or higher underlying growth in seven of the last nine quarters. For the first nine months of the year, Guy Carpenter generated $1.7 billion of revenue and 10% underlying growth. In the consulting segment, revenue in the quarter was $1.9 billion, up 13% from a year ago or 12% on an underlying basis. Operating income increased 45% to $404 million. Adjusted operating income increased 15% to $350 million. The adjusted operating margin was 18.9% in line with the margin in the third quarter of 2020. Consulting generated revenue of $5.7 billion for the first nine months of 2021, representing underlying growth of 9%. Adjusted operating income for the first nine months of the year increased 25% to $1.1 billion, and the adjusted operating margin expanded 180 basis points to 19.6%. Mercer's revenue was $1.3 billion in the quarter, up 7% on an underlying basis, the highest result in over a decade. Career grew 13% on an underlying basis, reflecting a continuing rebound in the global economy and business confidence. Wealth increased 6% on an underlying basis, reflecting strong growth in investment management and modest growth in defined benefits. Our assets under delegated management grew to nearly $400 billion at the end of the third quarter, up 24% year over year, benefiting from net new inflows and market gains. Health underlying revenue growth was 4% in the quarter driven by growth outside the U.S. Oliver Wyman's revenue in the quarter was $610 million, an increase of 25% on an underlying basis. This represents the second consecutive quarter of more than 20% growth as demand remains strong across most geographies and practices. For the first nine months of the year, revenue at Oliver Wyman was $1.8 billion, an increase of 21% on an underlying basis. Adjusted corporate expense was $60 million in the third quarter. Barn exchange had a negligible impact on earnings in Q3. Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX to be a modest headwind in the fourth quarter. Our other net benefit credit was $69 million in the quarter, and we expect it will remain at this level in the fourth quarter. Investment income was $13 million in the quarter on a GAAP basis and $12 million on an adjusted basis, and mainly reflects gains on our private equity portfolio. Interest expense in the third quarter was $107 million compared with $128 million in the third quarter of 2020, reflecting lower debt levels in the period. Based on our current forecast, we expect interest expense in the fourth quarter to be similar to the amount in the third quarter. Our adjusted effective tax rate in the third quarter was 24.4% compared with 26.5% in the third quarter last year. Our gap tax rate was 24.2% in the third quarter, down from 30.3% in the third quarter of 2020, which was impacted by some unusual items. Through the first nine months of the year, our adjusted effective tax rate was 24.4%, compared with 24.6% last year. Based on the current environment, we continue to expect an adjusted effective tax rate between 25% and 26% for 2021, excluding discrete items. Given our year-to-date performance, we are on track for an outstanding year. Looking specifically at the fourth quarter, keep in mind that comparisons become more challenging given the rebound in growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. We also continue to build for the long term by investing and hiring. While we are excited about the future benefits these investments will deliver, they come with upfront costs we absorb in the short term. That said, we have consistently demonstrated our ability to deliver exceptional results today while investing for the future and expect we will continue to do so. Turning to capital management and our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $10.7 billion of total debt. Our next scheduled debt maturity is in January of 2022, when $500 million of senior notes mature. We continue to expect to deploy at least $3.5 billion of capital in 2021, of which at least $3 billion will be deployed across dividends, acquisitions, and share repurchases. The ultimate level of share repurchases will depend on how the M&A pipeline develops. Our cash position at the end of the third quarter was $1.4 billion. Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $665 million and included $272 million for dividends, $93 million for acquisitions, and $300 million for share repurchases. For the first nine months, uses of cash totaled $2.6 billion and included $750 million for dividends, $566 million for acquisitions, $734 million for share repurchases, and $500 million for debt repayment. We had a remarkable third quarter, positioning us well to deliver strong growth in both revenue and adjusted earnings in 2021. And with that, I'm happy to turn it back to Dan. Thanks, Mark.
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