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spk09: Welcome to the MPLX fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. My name is Sheila, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. Press star 1 on your touchtone phone to enter the queue. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Christina Kazarian. Christina, you may begin.
spk08: Good morning, and welcome to the MPLX fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. The slides that accompany this call can be found on our website at MPLX.com under the Investor tab. Joining me on the call today are Mike Hennigan, Chairman and CEO, John Quaid, CFO, and other members of the executive team. We invite you to read the Safe Harbor Statements and Non-Gap Disclaimer on slide two. It's a reminder that we will be making forward-looking statements during the call and during the question and answer session that follows. Actual results may differ materially from what we expect today. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included there, as well as in our filings with the SEC. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.
spk13: Thanks, Kristina. Good morning. Thank you for joining our call. First off, I want to recognize a new director on the MPLX Board. In November, Kristi Brees, who recently served as CFO for U.S. Steel, was appointed as a new independent director. 2022 was a strong year as we successfully executed all of our strategic priorities. Full year adjusted EBITDA was $5.8 billion and DCF was $5 billion. Strong operational performance and customer demand drove record annual pipeline throughputs and increasing gathering processing and fractionation throughputs with each quarter of the year. We also realized EBITDA growth from recent capital investments and remain focused on cost management. Overall, our efforts resulted in a 4 percent year-over-year adjusted EBITDA and DCF growth. In line with our commitment to return capital, for the full year, MPLX returned over $3.5 billion of capital back to unit holders through our distribution and unit repurchases. We also made progress towards our goal of leading in sustainable energy through our methane reduction program and with the receipt of EPA's Energy Star Award for energy efficiency improvements at several terminals. Today, we announced our capital expenditure outlook for 2023 of $950 million. Our plan includes approximately $800 million of growth capital and $150 million of maintenance capital. Our growth capital plan is anchored in the Marcellus, Permian, and Bakken basins. In addition to new gas processing plants in the Marcellus and Permian, the remainder of our capital plan is mostly focused on other investments targeted at expansion or de-bottlenecking of existing assets to meet customer demand. While our capital outlook is primarily focused on our current L&S and GMP footprint, we will continue to evaluate low-carbon opportunities where we can leverage technologies that are complementary with our asset footprint and expertise. Moving to our capital allocation framework. First, maintenance capital. We remain steadfast in our commitment to safely operate our assets, protect the health and safety of our employees, and support the communities in which we operate. Second, we remain focused on delivering a secure distribution. Third, after these commitments are met, we will invest to grow while maintaining strict capital discipline. And fourth, we also intend to return excess capital to unit holders. As I've said in the past, we believe this is both a return on and a return of capital business. Last November, based on the strength and growth of our cash flows, we increased our distribution by 10 percent to an annual rate of $3.10 per unit, while maintaining a strong distribution coverage ratio of 1.6 times. In 2023, we would expect to be similarly focused on our distribution as our primary tool to return capital to unit holders. We are optimistic about our opportunities in 2023 and remain focused on executing the strategic priorities of strict capital discipline, fostering a low-cost culture, optimizing our asset portfolio, which are foundational to the growth of MPLX's cash flows. Now let me turn the call over to John to discuss our operational and financial results for the quarter.
spk11: Thanks, Mike. Slide six outlines the fourth quarter operational and financial performance highlights for our logistics and storage segment. L&S segment adjusted EBITDA increased $45 million when compared to fourth quarter 2021. The increased results were primarily driven by higher pipeline tariffs and contributions from pipeline equity affiliates partially offset by higher maintenance project related expenses in the quarter. Pipeline volumes were flat year over year, primarily due to the impacts associated with Marathon's refinery turnarounds in both quarters. Terminal volumes were up 4%. Moving to our gathering and processing segment on slide seven, GNP segment adjusted EBITDA decreased $36 million compared to fourth quarter 2021, as the benefits of higher volumes were more than offset by lower natural gas liquids prices, which averaged 78 cents per gallon for the quarter as compared to $1.05 in the fourth quarter of 2021. In total for the quarter, gathered volumes were up 14% year-over-year due to increased production in the Utica and our southwest region, which includes our Permian operations. Processing volumes were up 1% year-over-year primarily from higher volumes in the southwest, driven by increased customer demand and our investments in processing capacity in the Permian. In the Marcellus, while gathering and processing volumes were slightly lower year over year, we did see sequential increases for gathering, processing, and fractionation volumes in the basin. These activity levels were in line with our expectations for increased producer activity in the back half of the year. Moving to our fourth quarter financial highlights on slide eight, total adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion was roughly flat versus the same period in the prior year, while distributable cash flow of $1.3 billion increased 5%. Results in the quarter were impacted by a $23 million special compensation award provided to our employees in recognition of their efforts. We do not anticipate that this expense will structurally impact future costs. In the fourth quarter, we returned $975 million to unit holders through approximately $800 million in distributions and $175 million of repurchases of common units held by the public. MPLX ended the year with nearly $850 million remaining available under its unit repurchase authorization. Last week, MPLX declared a fourth quarter distribution of 77.5 cents per unit, resulting in a distribution coverage ratio of 1.6 times for the fourth quarter. MPLX ended the year with total debt of around $20 billion and a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.5 times, comfortably below our target of approximately four times. While our absolute level of debt has remained relatively constant, our leverage has decreased due to the growth in our business. And at these leverage levels, we do not see the need to reduce our absolute level of debt. Earlier today, we announced our intent to redeem at par value the $600 million of outstanding Series B preferred units in mid-February. Subject to market conditions, we expect to refinance these preferred units into long-term debt. In closing, we expect our solid operating performance and growth of our cash flows will enable us to continue to invest in and grow the business while also supporting the return of capital to MPLX unit holders. Now let me turn the call back over to Christina.
spk08: Thanks, John. As we open the call for questions, we ask that you limit yourself to one question plus a follow-up. We may reprompt for additional questions as time permits. With that, Sheila, we're ready for questions today.
spk09: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star then 2. If you are using a speakerphone, you may need to pick up the handset first before pressing the numbers. Once again, if you have a question, please press star then 1 on your touchtone phone. Our first question will come from Brian Reynolds with UBS. Your line is open.
spk12: Hi, good morning, everyone. Perhaps to start off on capital allocation, we saw, you know, continued commitment to unit repurchases and the redemption announcement on the preferreds. With the preferred redemption announcement and some of the debt maturities that are coming up in 23 and 24, I was just curious if you could opine and discuss on how you expect any change in return of cash via, you know, special distribution or buybacks going forward, like we've seen in the past, just given, you know, the upcoming debt maturities and the perhaps that you expect to refinance as well.
spk11: Great, great. Hey, Brian, good morning. Thanks for the question. We'll try and pick that apart into a couple pieces. First, as I said in my comments, and just to reiterate, right, we provided notice to the Series B holders that we're going to redeem those in February. As you note, we also have a billion of senior notes maturing in July. And given our leverage and where we are and as we've done in the past, we'll likely look to refinance both of those into long-term debt subject to market conditions. So that's the first piece on the Bs and the series notes, senior notes, excuse me. And then thinking about return of capital, you know, as you saw us last year, you know, we had We've gotten lots of feedback from investors. Some prefer distribution, some prefer unit repurchases. We've tried to think about our structure around that framework. As you, more recently, it seems like it's been tilted towards the distribution. As Mike commented, and as you know, we increased the distribution 10 percent here, effective with the third quarter distribution. Still really strong coverage at 1.6 times, a strong balance sheet at 3.5 times leverage. I think that'll be an area we'll continue to focus on in 2023. And then we'll also, I think, continue to be opportunistic, perhaps more opportunistic around unit repurchases, right? If you look back to when we began the program, we've done a little over a billion at about 29 a unit. In the fourth quarter, we did, what, about 176 million at, I think, 3175, somewhere in that ballpark. So, I think it'll continue to be a part of our framework, but perhaps a little more opportunistic. And, Mike, you want to add something as well?
spk13: Yeah, Brian, let me just add a little bit to it. Just on a simple basis, you know, we're generating about $6 billion of EBITDA, about $5 billion of distributable cash flow after that. We've been spending roughly around $1 billion, so we have about $4 billion of free cash flow and distributing $3 billion through our base distribution, which has been leaving about $1 billion of cash after all that. So, I think the key is we have a lot of flexibility. And as John said, we'll try and be opportunistic on the buyback side. We'll try and continue to show the market that we continue to grow this partnership. So you'll see us continue to increase distributions over time. So we'll talk about that at some point. But I think we're in a real good position from a financial standpoint. Strong balance sheet, excess cash flow, looking for opportunities to deploy but staying strict on returns. And overall, hopefully that's where the market wants us to be.
spk12: Great. Thanks. Really appreciate all that extra color. And maybe just to quickly touch on the operational side of the house, MPC refinery runs heading into 23 seem to be very much better than peers. And curious if management could just opine on, you know, expectations for 23 product volumes versus 22. And if you're seeing any nuances by products that could perhaps support resiliency in product volumes in 23 after just seeing really strong refinery runs last year. Thanks.
spk13: Yeah, it's a good question, Brian. I'm going to let Sean give you a little more color, but I will say at the MPC side of the house, I mean, we had a really strong year. You know, safe, reliable operations is key to our business on that side. We ran 96% utilization. You know, if you followed some of the activity during the year, we had deferred some turnaround activity to the back half of the year, but overall it was a very strong utilization. So I'll let Sean comment a little bit on the L&S side.
spk03: Hey, Brian, this is Sean. Hey, you know, as Mike said, we had a strong year in 22. We had, you know, several records across our assets on the terminal pipeline side. And in 23, we're continuing to see another strong year. And we're, you know, we'll be matching, you know, the refinery rates that, you know, MPC and others have us. And then also we're, you know, excited about the growth out of the Permian and some of the pipelines coming out of the Permian. So, again, we're just like 22. We're excited to see, again, another solid year in 23 as far as volumes and growth.
spk12: Great. I'll leave it there. Enjoy the rest of your day. Thanks. Thanks, Brian. Thanks, Brian.
spk09: Thank you. Our next question will come from John McKay with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
spk06: Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the time. Maybe I'll pick up on the CapEx guide. You touched on some of the moving pieces, but I'm just curious if you could break it down a little more for us just in terms of, you know, and it can be loose, I suppose, but just how much of the guide is going towards these kind of named projects you've talked about, like the next Permian processing plants versus going to the smaller bucket of one-offs versus, I guess, what we're calling kind of the emerging opportunities on the transition side. Any sort of breakdown there or kind of trend maybe even year over year would be interesting. Thank you.
spk13: Yeah, John, good morning. I'll start, and then I'll let John add some color. So in general, most of the capital program is targeted at what we'll call the smaller expansion, the bottlenecking projects. I know people like to see flashy big projects, but we actually get the best returns as producers grow, whether it's in the GMP side or in the L&S side of the business. As production increases, we have a pretty big system that we can continue to bolt on to, add to, expand a little bit here and there. It's where we get our higher return projects. Now, we're still going to add to the platform. As you mentioned, we've got a couple processing plans coming on, which will continue to increase our base, which then allows us to add some gathering to support that, et cetera. But the real story behind our growth, and if you step back, I mean, we are pretty large, as I just mentioned, about $6 billion of EBITDA. So, you know, our base plan is we're going to have mid-single-digit growth in our system, you know, have good discipline so that we get high-return projects, continue to add EBITDA, And at the end of the day, you know, look for those other opportunities like you mentioned in low carbon. There hasn't been a lot to date. There's been a lot of rhetoric around it. There's a lot of talk about different things. We're obviously involved in projects that are looking at CCUS. We're involved in a lot of stuff that's, you know, down the road, but not going to be hitting, you know, the 2023 earnings profile in a strong way yet. I am a believer over time there are going to be more opportunities for us there. Those just have to develop as you know as technology advances etc. So in the meantime you know our concentration we use the term strict capital discipline. You know it's a nice way of saying we want to make sure we get good high returns that are really going to hit the bottom line every year consistently because you know we've continued to grow this partnership year after year. And obviously a big outcome of that is returning a lot of capital to our investors.
spk11: Hey, John, it's John. Just a couple of things to add to Mike's comments. I mean, one is an example of kind of an expansion in the bottleneck. The other item we're looking at in the Marcellus is we've got some space on our existing processing plants. So we've got an opportunity to look at those gathering systems and invest some monies and fill up some space on plants we have sitting there and ready to go. And then also remember that there's a number of those projects that are listed on the slide there, mainly around our Permian opportunities, where those projects, given shipper support, et cetera, we've been financing those at the JV level. So there's a good amount of capital that's going to drive EBITDA growth that's not in our capital outlook just because of, you know, that's getting financed down at the joint venture. So just wanted to highlight that as well.
spk06: That's helpful. Appreciate all the thoughts. Maybe turning to a quarter, two things. John, I think you mentioned some higher expenses, maybe on the LNS side in the quarter. And then you also mentioned the $23 million special comp award. I mean, is there any kind of total number there that you might be able to give us for the quarter that, you know, maybe won't be there in a run rate if we're trying to look at 2023 going forward? Is it as simple as kind of adding back $23 or maybe $25 million, and that's kind of a more representative run rate of the base business.
spk11: Yeah, yeah, John, thanks for the question. So a couple of pieces there. I mean, the special compensation award, by its kind of term we're using there, that's a one-time item we decided to do here in the quarter, and that was the expense for the entire item. So I don't know that we anticipate having another award in the first quarter, right? That was... really our effort to look at our employees, kind of non-executive level employees' efforts in achieving our 2022 results and wanting to recognize that. So that's a little unique. The other piece gets around our frequent discussion around kind of project maintenance expenses. Certainly we tend to be a little more back half loaded. Sometimes that can move with NPCs, turnarounds, schedules, et cetera. So that number year over year, I think we see being roughly the same amount of expenses as we continue to focus on cost management. But it will move quarter to quarter, John. But I don't know that today we're going to provide that number. Just a flag for you, as in the past, first quarter does tend to be our lowest spend quarter around that activity just due to weather and other items. So hopefully that's helpful.
spk06: I appreciate it. Thank you very much. You're welcome.
spk09: Our next question comes from Keith Stanley with Wolf Research. Your line is open.
spk05: Hi, good morning. I wanted to start just, I know this is a very recent data point, but just any updated commentary you're hearing from producers on planned Marcellus and Utica activity given the very rapid decline in gas prices that we've seen and how that might be impacting your expectations as well? Yeah, Keith, that's a good question. I'm going to let Greg take that one.
spk07: Thanks, Keith. You know, really, the 2022 prices, whether it be crude, NGL, or gas, were very supportive of increased drilling activity by producers. And this is not just in the Permian, Delaware, or even the Marcellus. It was across all basins. We've seen increased activity. So increased drilling in 2022 and some completions, and then completions into 2023 mean higher volume outlook for 23. Certainly there has been price volatility. You know, we've seen prices over $10 per MMBTU, you know, in the summer, which, you know, at a high, and now we're kind of back to more of a normal level. But in the Permian and places like the Bakken, even the condensate went on the Utica is really crude price driven. And the drilling is really the crude price. And we see the benefits of associated gas and NGLs that come off of that. So short-term price swings really we don't expect right now will impact the volume as much because a lot of that activity was set up by drilling activity in 2022.
spk05: Got it. Thanks. Second question, I just wanted to follow up on the distribution. So you had the 10 percent hike last quarter. growth in the distribution I think was pretty small in the couple years before that. How should investors think about distribution growth over the next several years for the company? Does it tie in your head to overall growth in cash flows of the business? Do you see some excess cushion and excess cash flow so the distribution could grow potentially faster?
spk11: Just how are you thinking about that over the next few years? Hey, Keith, it's John. I'll start, and then I'm sure Mike will have some comments as well. You know, again, as you said, last quarter, really driven off our confidence in the strength of our cash flows, we moved to the 10% distribution increase. But as I noted, still a really strong coverage ratio of 1.6 times. And I think you've highlighted part of it, right? We've continued to grow the partnership. We've been focused on cost. And while we may have slowed on the distribution for a few years, we essentially built up our coverage. So that was partly, you know, you heard Mike talk about our target of kind of mid-single-digit growth. You know, ultimately you would see the distribution getting towards that sort of run rate. But we probably have built up some capacity here to think about, you know, how we might look at the distribution later this year.
spk13: I'm just going to add a little bit of repeat a little bit of what I said earlier. Got to keep in mind you know the law of large numbers. You know we're roughly six billion of EBITDA. So you know if we grow that at mid single digit that's you know three hundred million dollars more EBITDA which would translate to you know more financial flexibility for us whether we increase the base distribution you know do buybacks or whatever. But You know, the nice thing about our system is, you know, we're large enough that, you know, even mid-single-digit growth will add a significant amount of additional cash flow to, you know, a distribution that today is about $3 billion, roughly. So if you think about the math of, you know, where does that even translate, it provides flexibility for us to make more moves. And to your point, you know, everybody in this space kind of, you know, paused a little bit during COVID. You know, and I think one of the things that I hope the market recognized, you know, we still grew earnings, you know, during that year, even though, you know, it was a tough year on the refining side of the house with reduced demand, et cetera. So part of it is to try and recognize where we are financially. Part of it is to try and recognize where our growth potential is. And then, like I said, if you go to the simple math, you can start to kind of look at, you know, where our financial flexibility will be. And I keep saying it's a good problem to have. You know, it's a good place to be. You know, we'll try and reward investors in the best way that we can to get an overall total return in the manner that we think is most efficient at the time. You know, we've traditionally said it's an all-of-the-above approach. You know, as John mentioned, you know, we leaned in a little harder on distribution last year, you know, for the point that you made, as well as, you know, what John just made. You know, we've got strong coverage. We've got a continued line of sight for growth. So I think we're in a really good position to continue to grow the partnership. Thank you. You're welcome.
spk09: Our next question will come from Teresa Chen with Barclays. Your line is open.
spk01: Good morning. Mike, I'd love to get some of your thoughts on the potential low carbon expansion opportunities and generally growth beyond what you have in the slate right now. As far as your ability and willingness to invest in the low carbon renewable space, Are there hurdles at this point, a matter of technology, financial hurdles? And given that MPC has made significant progress in its renewables investments, is there volition down the line to do something together with the C Corp?
spk13: Yeah, Teresa. So, you know, at a high level, most of our low carbon activity in the short term is geared at the MPC side of the house. So we'll talk a little bit more about that at the 11 o'clock call. you know, a little less right now on the MPLX side. But as I mentioned earlier, you know, we are a believer that technology will continue to advance. You know, one example that everybody's aware of is, you know, gathering carbon and sequestering it. So that's a great opportunity on the MPLX side of the house. We're active in several projects, but they're not 2023 projects. You know, they're not going to happen to, you know, are not going to impact earnings profile this year. You know, overall, you know, as you're very aware, on the MPC side of the house, we have a couple of renewable diesel plants. There's going to be more growth in that area. So we get a little more color on the MPC call as far as what's happening on low carbon. So I'll just ask you to listen in on that. We'll give a little more detail. And then on the MPLX side, we think things are coming. They're just, you know, not ready for prime time at this time.
spk11: And then, Teresa, Sean, I might just jump in real quick, just as a reminder. If you think about, like, the Martinez Renewable Fuels Facility project that MPC is doing, those logistics assets around that were and remain MPLX assets. So, and we don't have a lot of investments to move around a different liquid. So, to some degree, it maybe extends the life of the assets we have with minimal investments around those facilities.
spk13: You know, and, Teresa, it's Mike. The one last thing to your question on, you know, what's limiting technology or whatever, in a lot of the areas, you know, the returns that we can get on those opportunities are not quite meeting what we would like to implement. But I think over time, the technologies will evolve, and that will be an area for us to invest. As we've been talking throughout the call, you know, we have a lot of financial flexibility on this side of the house. John mentioned we're at three and a half times on the balance sheet. We're generating a billion dollars a year of excess cash beyond a growing distribution. So we have the financial flexibility. We are ready and able, but we are going to be strict on returns. So part of what has held us back from some of what I'll call the splashier discussions, the returns just are not at a level that we think is investable at this point. But we think they're going to get there. It's just a matter of time.
spk01: Thank you for the thorough response, and I agree, John, that we definitely look forward to that 2026 recontracting on the March 2 logistics assets. Maybe turning to the Northeast for a second, following the startup and ramp-up of your DS and ISER, would love to get your take on how that facility is doing as it supports feedstock delivery to the Monaco cracker, as well as your general outlook for economics in the Northeast, given the recent price volatility.
spk07: So this is Greg. I'll answer that question on several layers to it. We have within MPLX over 300,000 barrels a day of deethanization capacity in our fleet. We're unique in that our fleet is our deethanizer actually fleet is spread across all of our processing plants. So we have the ability to reject or recover ethane almost by customer, but definitely by plant. All those plants are connected by a purity ethane line, and we deliver to Mariner East, Mariner West, Utopia, Atex, as well as the Shell Falcon line for pipeline for Monaca. The Smithburg de-ethanizer is the latest addition to our fleet. It adds 40,000, a little over 40,000 barrels a day of purity ethane production capability to our fleet, which I mentioned is over 300,000 barrels a day. So that plant is in operation. It's operating well. It's ramping up along with the rest of our fleet to not only supply Menaka, but also all of the Gulf Coast, East Coast, and even Canadian takeaway points. In terms of the economics, The fractionation spread between ethane and natural gas, whether it's rejected or not, you know, recently we've seen natural gas prices drop at a little higher rate than the ethane price dropped. So the economics for recovery have improved, but it's really up to the producer in terms of whether we recover more or reject. We have the ability to do both. We have the capacity to do it. Frankly, in the Northeast, most of the recovery is tied to commitments that are already made by the producers for those takeaway pipelines and to the shell plant. So we continue to ramp up towards as we increase our utilization there.
spk01: Thank you very much.
spk13: You're welcome, Teresa.
spk09: Thank you. And once again, if you would like to ask a question at this time, you can press star 1 and record your name when prompted. Our next question comes from Jeremy Tenet with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open. Hi.
spk10: Good morning. Hi, Jeremy. Just wanted to shift over to the Permian a little bit, if I could, as it relates to natural gas egress. And just wondering any high-level thoughts you might be willing to share as far as, you know, takeaway tightness We've seen Waha touch negative prices recently, not too long ago, and was just curious, I guess, with the Whistler expansion with Matterhorn, is there any ability to kind of start partial service ahead of the dates that you've set, or just trying to get a feel for how you see Permian egress tightness unfolding and what MPOX could do there?
spk03: Hey, Jeremy, this is Sean. I'll touch on the gas takeaway out of the Permian there. As you know, we've got the Whistler pipeline And as we said, you know, last quarter, we're really pleased by the ramp-up of the volumes on there, again, showing that, again, that gas takeaway is needed there. That volume and those commitments have continued to be strong, and we anticipate those will continue on into 23 here. You know, we've got the half-bee expansion coming online in the third quarter of 23 for Whistler. And, again, we're seeing really, you know, meeting in expectations for that committed volume coming out of the Permian. And then on top of that, you've got Matterhorn that, you know, we're a small participant in that really matches our producer and customer's needs coming out of there. So, again, I think, you know, as Greg said earlier, you're going to see volatility up and down on natural gas. But, again, there's strong volume demand for the gas takeaway out of the Permian.
spk10: Got it. Thanks for that. And I was just curious, I guess, as it relates to weather during the quarter, there was some – freezing conditions across the country. Wondering if that impacted your operations at all. If there's any weather headwinds that you would be willing to quantify for us if they did materialize.
spk11: Great. Hey, Jeremy, it's John. Thanks for the question. I'll start, and Greg and Sean can chime in if they want to as well on the ops. So across our platform, in the fourth quarter, we probably had mostly lost the profit opportunity as some of our producers, mainly on the GMP side, obviously, when it gets that cold, they run into some issues. So that reduced our operations there for, you know, 10 to 14 days, give or take, you know, different across the basins in the fourth quarter. That probably was a lost opportunity of, you know, somewhere around $10 million in the quarter. And as we look to this quarter, Q123, partly, you know, impacts on MPC's operations, partly, remember, I'm talking adjusted EBITDA And when we think about our joint ventures on the GNP side, that really is distributions. So there's part of the effect in Q4 that shows up as lower distributions in Q1 as well. So probably 10 million of lost opportunity in both Q4 and Q1.
spk10: Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. You're welcome.
spk09: Our next question will come from Neil Dingman with Truist Securities. Your line is open.
spk04: Morning, all. My question is on your Marcellus GMP specifically. A number of EMPs, I haven't heard too much from them as far as plans for any change of activity, but yet I did hear from a frack provider last week that suggested that you could see some slowdown in fracking activity, you know, for the next few months or a bit longer in Appalachian. So I'd just love to hear, you know, I did know you're – Looking at slide seven, it was down a little bit, not a whole lot there versus the year-over-year, so I'm just curious more on your overall thoughts in the area for the remainder of the year.
spk07: Neil, this is Greg. At this point, we're in close communication with producer customers, and we track, over time, well pads that are being drilled and completion rates. You know, depending on rig availability, depending on weather, depending on, you know, pricing, those things, obviously those forecasts can and do change. But we still, as I mentioned before, a lot of the activity in the volume drive, you know, that we forecast into 23 is based on, you know, on activity, drilling activity in 22 and then some completion activity that already, you know, has been underway. So there could be pads delayed. I'm not aware of those, but that's always a possibility. But at this point, we still feel bullish about volume this year.
spk04: Yeah, good. Go ahead, Mike. Sorry.
spk13: Yeah, let me just add, even outside of the Marcellus, I think everybody realizes now there's a structural change in gas from a lot of perspectives. So you know in some of the areas that had not seen a lot of activity as you know greg mentioned earlier in 22 you know you're starting to see rigs in other basins you know outside of the marcellus that haven't had a lot of activity so i i think overall people are recognizing a structural change in gas now very short term yeah it's been a little warm you know relative to expectation coming into the into the winter but if you if you pull back up to it to a higher level Structural change, more activity, rigs being used in basins that there has not been activity for a while, I think shows that there's a change in gas potential going forward.
spk04: Yeah, well said, Mike. And then one just clarification, maybe a thought, but I want to make sure. On the gathering, you continue to have a nice increase on the gather on the other side, non-Marcellus. Can you remind me of just capacity? I still think you have a bit there on the Permian at all. I'm just wondering, again, what is – I think you talked about this earlier today. I just want to make clear on what is still the capacity available on the gathering side there.
spk07: In terms of the Permian-Delaware, the capacity, we basically build out and connect new wells and add compression – as we need it to fill the processing capacity that we have, so.
spk11: Yeah, Neil, it's Sean. I mean, specifically in the Permian, if that's what you were asking about, right, we've got our five plants. We're building our sixth. They're each about $200 million a day. So that's the size and scale of that operation, which in our numbers, it's part of the southwest region that we show. We're at a B heading to 1.2B.
spk07: And we match the gathering, which I believe you specifically asked for, to that capacity.
spk04: That's right. That's right. Okay. Thanks, guys. Great details.
spk09: Thank you. Our next question will come from Spiro Dunas with Citi. Your line is open.
spk14: Thanks, operator. Morning, team. I wanted to go back and follow up on one of Brian's questions. Just as we think about refinery run rates for 23, and if we zoom out a bit and just look at the industry as a whole, I believe it's supposed to be kind of a heavier refinery maintenance year this year. So I'm curious how you're all thinking about the impact to your system overall, whether or not that shift flows on the export side or internally. I'm curious how you're thinking about the net benefit or negative there.
spk13: Spiro, it's Mike. So I'll start off. MPC had a back-end weighted turnaround year in 22. We're going to talk about a front-end weighted 23. But even with our activity there, I think one of the things that has been part of our success on the MPC side is to figure out a way to keep our utilizations high despite taking our needed turnaround activities for safe, reliable operations. So it is a heavier year for us, especially if you think of the back half of the one year and the front half of the other on the MPC side. You know, at the same time, even with that activity, you know, we ran 96% utilization last year. We still expect a pretty strong year. It'll start off with, you know, more activity in the first quarter. But, you know, as Sean mentioned earlier, you know, we're still expecting, even though we had a record year this year on the L&S side, we're still expecting a pretty strong year in 23.
spk14: Got it. Thanks, Mike. Second question, just thinking about CapEx going forward. You guys have been utilizing joint ventures pretty effectively over the last few years. And I guess I'm curious as you sort of look back and assess that strategy, I think you'd be satisfied with it, but I'm just curious how you're thinking about it going forward. Is that a strategy using joint ventures, something you plan on doing from here on any sort of larger multi-year projects? And ultimately, do you see these joint ventures as a pathway to own more of these current assets or even maybe some of these joint venture partners over time?
spk11: Hey, Spiro, it's John. I'll start and then let Mike chime in. You know, I think certainly to your first point, we definitely have been very pleased with our investments in the Permian. I don't know that we started those from a financial aspect as well as, you know, other considerations, right, when you're entering a joint venture relationship, sharing of risk, commercial opportunity, etc., So I think it depends on the situation because, as you know, we certainly have a strong balance sheet in generating a good bit of cash. So those have worked really well for us. I think where there's opportunities that have both commercial, operational, and perhaps financial reasons, we can look at JV opportunities. But given the strength of the balance sheet, I don't know that financially we would need to leverage them in that regard.
spk13: Yes, Vera, I was just going to add to what John said. You know, it's pretty specific to the opportunity and, you know, the desire of all the partners. You know, we try and be a good partner. As John said, in a couple of these instances, we had the financial capability to finance it ourselves. When other members, you know, want to do it at the project level and, you know, we can, you know, live with that, we're okay with it. We're not opposed to it. And if it makes for a better partnership, you know, that's fine for us. But, But I would tell you it's specific to the project itself and who the partners are. But John mentioned earlier, when we quote our capital, that's the capital that we're typically doing on our side of the house. And then there is additional capital that comes from those projects that gets financed at that project level. So it's hard to answer your question other than it's specific to John's point. You know, we have been happy with them. We've had good partners. You know, we're usually aligned. You know, the goal, obviously, in any JV is are you aligned in the intent of the project, et cetera. And we've been, you know, fortunate to have good alignment with our partners. And where we finance it at the project level, you know, we've been okay with that as well. Helpful as always. Thanks for your time, guys. You're welcome.
spk09: And our last question will come from Neil Mitra with Bank of America. Your line is open.
spk15: Hi, good morning. I wanted to touch on the MPC Galveston Bay upgrades. I was wondering if that would have any impact on the LNS segment once that's completed.
spk13: Yeah, I'll start and I'll let Sean jumped in. Yeah, we're probably going to talk about that in a lot more specifics on the MPC call. But just in general, you know, that project is, you know, pretty strategic for us. You know, it's a lot more crude processing and Brazil upgrading. So, as you know, obviously, down at Galveston Bay, we have flexibility to bring barrels in via pipeline and or water. Depending on the specifics of where the best crude opportunity is, it could hit our system or it could come waterborne on the crude side. Obviously, the outcome of the products tends to move on some other pipes as well. It's much more of an MPC impacting project than it is an MPLX project.
spk15: Got it. Thank you. And then my second question on the GMP side, can you sum up how you look at the Permian portfolio? You have some good gathering and processing natural gas takeaway with Whistler and a little bit with Matterhorn. How far downstream do you want to go? Are you thinking about NGL pipelines? And then do you feel like you need more scale on the GMP side to to feed some of the downstream assets. I'm just wondering how you envision this portfolio looking like in, you know, the intermediate to longer term.
spk13: Yeah, at a high level, yeah, we would like to continue to expand our footprint there, but I'll let, you know, Greg and Sean touch or Dave.
spk02: Yeah, Neil, this is Dave. You know, I think as you look at it, you know, one of our strategies is to leverage the existing infrastructure and assets we have in place from gathering the process and the long-haul pipelines down to the export opportunities or the other infrastructure out there. So I think as you see, whether it be organic or inorganic growth opportunities is really going to keep that in the back of our mind. all anchored by strict capital discipline and ensuring that we get the acceptable returns.
spk15: And if I could just ask a follow-up to that, are you seeing some synergies between your gathering and processing and possibly being able to win contracts by having the Whistler capacity there given the lack of natural gas takeaway and possibly bundling contracts between pipelines and GMP?
spk07: Yeah, there are definitely synergies. On the GMP side, for example, we're building and operating some of the crude gathering assets. The crude gathering assets, as we tie in new wells and put new lag units in, there's associated gas that comes with that, so we connect the gas wells and bring the gas in. GMP operates that gathering system as well, the gas and oil, and then we operate the processing plants. But we're reliant then on handing off the residue gas to Whistler, to Bengal, the NGLs, and then, of course, the crude coming from the pads is going to Whistler. You know, L&S operated downstream pipelines as well, so we operate seamlessly there.
spk11: But, Neil, it's John, definitely right to the point of your question, right? Those producer customers want that product to the coast, and that's the solution we've built, and we'll continue to look to think about how we can move further downstream across that value chain. And, Neil, it's Mike.
spk13: I'll just add, you know, we try or make every effort to be a full-service provider. We'll gather crude. We'll gather gas. We'll process the gas. We'll transport the crude. Our intent is to be a partner to the producers or whoever needs to make infrastructure work for them or logistics work for them. So we try to be a full-service provider and get into conversations, like you said, on contracts or discussions as to what are their needs and how can we help them, and hopefully they turn into win-win situations.
spk15: Great. I appreciate all the callers. Thank you very much. You're welcome.
spk08: All right. With that, thank you guys for joining us today, and thank you for your interest in MPLX. Should you have additional questions or if you'd like clarification on any of the topics we discussed this morning, members of our IR team will be available to take your call, so please just reach out. Thank you, everybody.
spk09: Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.
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