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spk01: Welcome to Maztec's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call, initially broadcast on October 30th, 2020. Let me remind participants that today's call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Mark Lewis, Maztec's Vice President of Investor Relations. Mark?
spk02: Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Maztec's Third Quarter Call. The following statement is made pursuant to the safe harbor for four looking statements described and the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In these communications, we may make certain statements that are forward-looking, such as statements regarding my state's future results, plans, and anticipated trends in the industries where we operate. These forward-looking statements are the company's expectations on the day of the initial broadcast of this conference call, and the company does not undertake to update these expectations based on subsequent events or knowledge. Various risks, uncertainties, and assumptions are detailed in our press releases and our filing for the SEC. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should any of our underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may differ significantly from results expressed or implied in these communications. In today's Remarks by Management, we will be discussing adjusted financial metrics as discussed and reconciling yesterday's press release and supporting schedules. In addition, we may use certain non-GAAP financial measures in this conference call. A reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measures Not reconciling these comments to the most comparable gap financial measure can be found in our earnings release or our 10-Q located in the investor section of our website located at mosstech.com. With us today, we have Jose Mas, our Chief Executive Officer, and George Pita, our Executive VP and Chief Financial Officer. The format of the call will be remarks and analysis by Jose, followed by a financial review from George. These discussions will be followed by a Q&A period, and we expect the call to last about 60 minutes. We had another great quarter and I have a lot of things to talk about today, so I'll now turn it over to Jose. Jose?
spk04: Thanks, Mark. Good morning and welcome to MOSTECH's 2020 third quarter call. I'd like to thank you for joining us today and I hope and pray that you and your loved ones are healthy and safe. MOSTECH continues to excel during these challenging and unprecedented times as we manage through the COVID-19 pandemic. During this time, The safety of our team members has been our top priority. I have to say, I'm so proud of the men and women of Moss Tech. Their sacrifices, resilience, creativity, and commitment have been inspiring. Millions of families throughout the United States rely on the power, communications, entertainment, and other services we help our customers provide. Our team has delivered. And I'd like to thank the men and women of Maastricht for their sacrifices and hard work. First, some third quarter highlights. Revenue for the quarter was $1,700,000,000. Adjusted EBITDA was $265,000,000. Adjusted earnings per share was $1.83. Year-to-date cash flow from operations is $712,000,000. And backlog at quarter end was $7.7 billion. In summary, we had another excellent quarter and are on track for another great year. I believe the third quarter demonstrated the strength of MOSTEC's business diversification. To me, the highlight of the quarter was the growth of our non-oil and gas segments. Revenue for these segments grew at 19% and EBITDA for these segments grew at 83% on a year-over-year basis. We expect continued growth of these segments in both revenue and earnings driven by a number of growth catalysts in both communication and clean energy. Catalysts in communication include the continued rollout of 5G and the ever-increasing fiber opportunities tied to it. The growing focus on increasing consumer broadband speed by both the telecom and cable TV carriers and the launch and growth of a 5G home product. Clean energy catalysts include the continued focus on carbon neutrality. As one of the largest clean energy contractors in the country, our expertise in constructing wind farms, solar farms, biomass facilities, high voltage transmission lines, substations, battery storage, and hydrogen enabled solutions uniquely position us to take advantage of growth in this market. Now I'd like to cover some industry specifics. Our communications revenue for the quarter was $645 million. More importantly, margins came in strong at 12.3% and were up 390 basis points year-over-year and up sequentially. The pandemic has helped highlight the importance of our nation's telecommunication networks, and our customers are working hard at providing their customers with reliable and high-speed connectivity. We expect this trend to continue and believe there will be a renewed focus on continuing fiber expansions in the residential markets. To illustrate, on an earnings call earlier this week, the CEO of Verizon said, and I quote, fiber richness of our network is a core element. The CEO of Corning on their call this week said, The density of fiber necessary to deliver its promise is yet another example, illustrating that up to 100 times more fiber is required to deploy 5G in a city than 4G. And at a conference in September, the CEO of AT&T made two statements. First, he stated, and I quote, anything we can do to put more fiber out into the network, serve both our consumer and business segments, and use that to power what over time is going to become a much more dense and distributed wireless network, that's first of all one of our key focus areas and something we see as very important to us. He followed that up and reiterated that priority number one is to make sure that we're investing in our core business. And that includes fiber and making sure we have broadband connectivity on 5G. And when you think about it, those two are not dissimilar. When you have a great 5G network, you're deploying a lot of fiber. Based on those comments, I think it's important to note that MOSTECH's wireline business has grown 180% over the last five years. 57% over the last three years, and about 13% over the third quarter of last year. Couple this with the continued opportunities around 5G deployment, and this provides us with significant opportunities to grow our business. In September, Samsung announced a $6.6 billion deal with Verizon to provide network equipment and 5G radios through 2025. Deals like these are very important to Maastricht as they need to be in place for the next phase of network expansion to take place. The analytics firm IHS Markit estimates that over the next 15 years, the 5G investment in the U.S. will approach $1 trillion. Over the coming months, we expect two important government initiatives that will be catalysts to our business. The first is the award of funds from the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund to help bring high-speed Internet to rural communities. The second is the mid-band wireless spectrum options expected later this year. Both of those should lead to significant opportunities for MOSTECH. I believe we are entering one of the most exciting periods in the history of telecommunications and that the deployment of 5G wireless technologies and the associated networks is truly a game changer for the consumer, our customers, and for MOSTECH. Moving to our electrical transmission segment, revenue was $129 million versus $103 million in last year's third quarter. Margins improved sequentially and we expect further improvement in the fourth quarter Backlog remains strong and improved year over year. We are confident that we can deliver strong revenue growth next year as we have a number of new projects starting. Scale in this segment is important for us as we strive to achieve double-digit margins. We believe we are very well positioned for 2021 and beyond as the drivers for this segment remain intact, which include aging infrastructure, reliability, renewable integration, and system hardening. Moving to our clean energy and infrastructure segment, revenue was $469 million for the third quarter versus $262 million in the prior year, a 79% year-over-year increase. Margins for the segment were strong at 7.3%, and we continue to expect full-year margins to improve over 2019 by over 100 basis points. The size and scope of the opportunities we are seeing in this segment continues to grow. Between verbal awards and projects we are competing on, we expect backlog to hit record levels over the coming quarters and expect revenues in 2001 to approximate $2 billion. We have made significant investments in this segment to profitably grow our business through organic opportunities. We continue to add talent and resources to meet the increasing demand for our services. While we've highlighted this segment more over the last few quarters, I still think it's an underappreciated part of MOSFET's portfolio. Over the course of the last few months, the focus on clean energy has been palpable. We have seen companies like Shell, Nextera, Duke Energy, and many others highlight their significant planned investments in lower carbon technologies. As a leading clean energy contractor and partner, MOSTIC is uniquely positioned to benefit from these investments. Moving to our oil and gas pipeline segment, revenue was $463 million compared to revenue of $973 million in last year's third quarter. Revenue was impacted by the effects of COVID and its impact on demand for both oil and gas. While this was already factored into our guidance, we also had two major projects that have been impacted by regulatory delays. Those projects, whose construction was expected to begin in the third quarter, have now started in the fourth quarter with the majority of work slipping into 2021. Looking at third quarter results, large project activity represented a very small portion of revenue. We believe that third quarter revenue levels are representative of what levels would look like without large project activity. Margins for the quarter were very strong and positively impacted by the reimbursement of delayed project EIDL equipment costs. Without associated revenue, these reimbursements had a significant impact on margin. We expect a more normalized margin level as project revenues increase. We ended the third quarter with backlog just over $2.4 billion, and we expect oil and gas revenues to increase in 2021. Subsequent to quarter end, we have been awarded one large project and a number of smaller recurring type projects. As a reminder, over the last three years, only 6% of our revenues have come from oil pipelines, with the majority of our business being tied to natural gas. We continue to see strong demand for integrity services, gas distribution, and line replacement activity. We are focused on continuing to diversify our revenues in this segment. I'd like to take a minute to cover 2020 guidance. Today, we increased our EBITDA guidance to a range of $800 to $811 million versus our previous guidance of $800 million. We lowered our revenue guidance to $6.4 to $6.6 billion versus our previous guidance of $7 billion. The change in guidance is directly attributable to the two oil and gas projects I covered earlier. Our initial expectation was the projects would start in the third quarter. Our range takes into account the possibility of further delays. I'd also like to note our guidance at the midpoint of the range assumes an almost $1.2 billion reduction in oil and gas revenues, while our total revenue will only be down about half that, meaning that we'll grow our other segments by nearly $600 million in 2020, again showing the strength of our diversified model. I'd also like to comment on our longer-term goals. As I think about our future business mix, I think we have a solid path to becoming a $10 billion plus revenue company, even in a depressed oil and gas backdrop. Based on market opportunities, we believe our communications business should grow to $3.5 to $4 billion in annual revenue, clean energy should exceed $3 billion, transmission over a billion, and oil and gas on a recurring level to be about $1.5 to $2 billion. To recap, We had a good third quarter and are confident that we are mitigating the effects and impacts of the COVID-19 virus. While times are challenging and uncertain, opportunities always arise from these challenges. Our customers are looking for ways to change and improve their business models and are looking for strong partners to help them. In that lies our opportunity. Our greatest strength has been to understand the trends in the industry and our customers' needs. Our ability to provide services, whether existing or new, has always been a strength. I'm excited for what the future holds for Maastricht. I'd again like to thank the men and women of Maastricht for their commitment to safety, their hard work, and their sacrifices. Keep up the good work. I'll now turn the call over to George for our financial review. George?
spk05: Thanks, Jose, and good morning, everyone. Today I'll cover third quarter results. our current guidance expectation for the balance of 2020, including the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as our strong cash flow performance, capital structure, and liquidity. As Mark indicated at the beginning of the call, our discussion of financial results and guidance will include non-GAAP adjusted earnings and adjusted EBITDA. Reconciliation and details of non-GAAP measures can be found on our press release, on our website or on our SEC filings. In summary, our third quarter earnings results were better than expected, with adjusted EBITDA beating our guidance expectation by $11 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share exceeding our guidance expectation by 16 cents. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $265 million represents a record level for MOSTECH and was achieved despite lower than expected oil and gas segment performance, which was impacted by delays in large project startups that have now initiated in the fourth quarter. As Jose noted, it is important to note that year-over-year strength in our non-oil and gas segments, namely the communications, clean energy and infrastructure, and electrical transmission segments, which on a combined basis, despite COVID-19 impacts, showed third quarter year-over-year revenue growth of 19% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 83%. This performance highlights the strength, diversity, and growth potential of MOSSEC. Third quarter 2020 results also continued our strong cash flow performance. generating $216 million in cash flow from operations and reducing sequential net debt levels by approximately $129 million. On a year-to-date basis, 2020 cash flow from operations of $712 million represented another record performance level for Moss Tech, and we have reduced net debt levels by almost $300 million since year end 2019, despite approximately $150 million in share repurchases and other strategic investments. As indicated in yesterday's release, we continue to expect that annual 2020 cash flow from operations results will mark the third consecutive year of record performance. Regarding our capital structure, my belief is that we have never been in a stronger position, affording us full flexibility to invest in strategic opportunities as well as giving us a strong advantage with our customers as we navigate through the uncertain economic climate resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, I will cover some more highlights regarding our third quarter segment results and guidance expectations for the balance of 2020. Third quarter 2020 communication segment revenue of $645 million was down 5% compared to the same period last year and essentially flat sequentially. Third quarter 2020 communication segment adjusted EBITDA margin rate was 12.3% of revenue representing a sequential increase of 60 basis points and a 390 basis point improvement when compared to last year's third quarter. It is worth noting that this improved performance includes disruption and lost revenue related to the COVID-19 pandemic, as we continue to have selected markets in which construction activity has been impacted due to local municipality permitting approval delays. We expect annual 2020 communication segment revenue levels will decline slightly from 2019 levels, with fourth quarter activity slowing sequentially and with a continued expectation of strong double-digit revenue growth in 2021. Based on our strong adjusted EBITDA margin performance over the past two quarters, we currently expect annual 2020 communication segment adjusted EBITDA margin rate to improve approximately 230 basis points over last year's rate to approximately 10.3% of revenues. We are pleased with the expected communications segment adjusted EBITDA margin rate improvement in 2020, particularly considering the challenging conditions. We continue with the belief that the evolution towards 5G technology, coupled with increasing remote workplace and education trends in the US because of the COVID-19 pandemic, will drive significant long-term demand for our wireless and wireline services in 2021 and beyond, as the COVID-19 pandemic effects diminish and conditions begin to normalize. Third quarter 2020 oil and gas segment revenue of $463 million decreased 52% compared to the same period last year. Revenue fell short of our expectation as startup activity on selected large projects was delayed due to regulatory and judicial issues. As a reminder, given the size of our large projects, a 30-day delay in project activity can impact monthly revenue by up to $200 million. As indicated in our release yesterday, during the fourth quarter, we've initiated startup activity on two large oil and gas projects and, accordingly, we expect fourth quarter 2020 revenue levels in this segment to increase substantially and exceed last year's fourth quarter level. Due to the potential impact of final regulatory and judicial approvals or challenges, coupled with the volatility of the onset of winter weather, our expected fourth quarter 2020 oil and gas revenue is presented in a range. And we now expect annual 2020 oil and gas segment revenue to range somewhere between $1.8 billion to $2 billion. Third quarter 2020 oil and gas segment backlog was approximately $2.4 billion. And we have continued significant fourth quarter activity, award activity, including the recent Keystone Pipeline announcement by TC Energy. In summary, we have clear visibility into strong 2021 revenue growth in this segment. Third quarter 2020 oil and gas segment adjusted EBITDA margin rate was 34.7% of revenue. This continues our strong performance trend across numerous smaller pipeline projects, as well as the benefit of approximately 10 percentage points for the combination of project closeout and change order recoveries, and contractual fees on selected delayed project activity for the recovery of idle owned equipment and other costs. As a reminder, the oil and gas segment requires significant capital investment in equipment fleet, and these costs are primarily reflected in depreciation expense below the adjusted EBITDA line. Looking forward, as we close out 2020, we anticipate strong oil and gas segment adjusted EBITDA margin trends will continue into the fourth quarter with an expectation in the mid-20% range. Third quarter 2020 electrical transmission segment revenue increased approximately 25% compared to the same period last year to approximately $129 million, and segment adjusted EBITDA margin rate was 7.1%. We anticipate fourth quarter results for this segment will slightly exceed and generally approximate the third quarter. Third quarter 2020 backlog remains strong at $545 million, and we continue to expect that market conditions for this segment are supportive for strong 2021 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA margin rate growth. Third quarter 2020 clean energy and infrastructure segment revenue of $469 million increased approximately 79% compared to the same period last year. Third quarter 2020 adjusted EBITDA margin rate was 7.3%, a sequential increase of 20 basis points and a 640 basis point increase compared to the same period last year. During the last two quarters, this segment has generated approximately $900 million in revenue, with adjusted EBITDA margin rate exceeding 7% each quarter. And this trend begins to reflect our longer-term expectation for this segment in the high single-digit range. We expect to close out 2020 with annual segment revenue in the $1.5 billion range, which equates to an annual growth rate in the mid-40% range. We also expect that annual 2020 adjusted EBITDA margin rate for this segment will show approximately a 140 basis point improvement over last year. As Jose indicated in his remarks, we have continued and significant growth expectations in 2021 and beyond for this segment in a very active clean energy market. I will now discuss a summary of our top 10 largest customers for the 2020 third quarter period as a percentage of revenue. AT&T revenue derived from wireless and wireline fiber services was approximately 12% and installed to the home services was approximately 3%. On a combined basis, these three separate service offerings totaled approximately 15% of our total revenue. As a reminder, it is important to note that these offerings, while falling under one AT&T corporate umbrella, are managed and budgeted independently within that organization, giving us diversification within that corporate universe. Whitewater Midstream was 7%. Permian Highway Pipeline, Ibadrola Group, and Comcast Corporation were each 6%. Energy Transfer Affiliates, Xcel Energy, Duke Energy Corporation, and Verizon Communications were each 5%. And NextEra Energy was 4%. Individual construction projects comprised 68% of our revenue, with master service agreements comprising 32%. once again highlighting that we have a significant portion of our revenue derived on a recurring basis. Lastly, it is worth noting, as we operate in a COVID-19 induced period of macroeconomic uncertainty, that all of our top 10 customers, who represented over 63% of our third quarter revenue, have investment grade credit profiles. Now I will discuss our cash flow, liquidity, working capital, usage, and strategic investments. During the third quarter of 2020, we generated $216 million in cash flow from operations and ended the quarter with net debt, defined as total debt less cash, of $1.07 billion, which equates to a very comfortable book leverage ratio of 1.4 times. As we have previously reported, during the quarter, we also strengthened our capital structure with a favorable refinancing of our 4 and 7, 8% senior unsecured notes. And we ended the quarter with $238 million in cash on hand, as well as record liquidity defined as cash plus borrowing availability of approximately $1.4 billion. During the first nine months of 2020, we generated a record level $712 million in cash flow from operations, which allowed us to reduce our net debt levels by approximately $300 million, while still investing approximately $150 million in strategic share repurchases and investments. During the first nine months of 2020, we repurchased approximately 3.6 million shares, or approximately 5% of our outstanding share base, with the vast majority of this activity occurring in the first quarter. Regarding our share repurchase program, we expect to opportunistically invest in this program as conditions warrant, while also currently managing our balance sheet. We currently have $159 million in open repurchase authorizations, and as of today, have not executed any share repurchases during the fourth quarter. We ended the quarter with DSOs at 85 days, down five days from last quarter. Depending on the timing of our fourth quarter revenue activity, we anticipate some modest working capital usage as we close out 2020. We are proud of the expectation that annual 2020 cash flow from operations will mark the third consecutive year of record performance. In summary, our record 2020 cash flow expectation coupled with a solid long-term capital structure, low interest rates, no significant near-term maturities, and ample liquidity, places MOSTEX balance sheet in an extremely strong position to take advantage of any and all opportunities our markets afford us. Regarding capital spending, during the third quarter, we incurred net cash capex, defined as cash capex net of equipment disposals, of approximately $39 million, and we incur an additional $41 million in equipment purchases under finance leases. We currently anticipate incurring approximately $190 million in net cash capex in 2020, with an additional $130 to $150 million to be incurred under finance leases. As we look forward into 2021, based on the investments we have made to date, we expect 2021 CAPEX levels will decline significantly when compared to 2020 levels. Moving on to our current 2020 guidance, our fourth quarter 2020 revenue expectation is expected to range between $1.7 to $1.9 billion, with adjusted EBITDA guidance ranging between $252 to $263 million. and adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance between $1.64 to $1.73. We are projecting annual 2020 revenue to range between $6.4 to $6.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to range between $800 to $811 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share to range between $5 and $5.09. This includes our expectation of strong adjusted EBITDA performance across multiple segments, as well as slightly improved expectations on below-the-line items, such as depreciation, interest, and income taxes. These guidance expectations incorporate the impact of projected lower 2020 oil and gas segment revenue, as regulatory delays on two large projects are expected to cause lower 2020 project activity and shift awarded work into 2021. as well as improved 2020 adjusted EBITDA margin rate expectations across multiple segments. As we have previously provided some color as to 2020 segment expectations, I will now briefly cover other guidance expectations as highlighted in our release yesterday. Based on our expected strong cash flow, lower nominal interest rates, and our recent Senior Notes offering, we expect annual 2020 interest expense levels to approximate $60 million, with this level only including share repurchase activity executed to date. Our estimate for full year 2020 share count is now 73.7 million shares. It should be noted, for valuation modeling purposes, that our year-end 2020 share count will approximate 73 million shares, inclusive of the full impact of 2020 share repurchases. We expect annual 2020 depreciation expense to approximate 4% of revenue, due to the combination of lower expected oil and gas 2020 revenue levels and the timing impact of capital additions and acquisition activity. Lastly, we expect our annual 2020 adjusted income tax rate will approximate 24%, with the fourth quarter tax rate expected to be slightly higher than the annual rate. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now turn the call back to the operator for Q&A. Operator?
spk01: Thank you. If you wish to ask a question at this time, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. Please ensure that the mute function on your telephone is switched off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. and please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. You may rejoin the queue if you have further questions. Again, please press star one to ask a question. Our first question today comes from Stephen Fisher of UBS.
spk03: Thanks. Good morning, guys. Just wanted to... Morning. Just wanted to start off asking some questions about the clean energy business. I wonder if you could just talk a little bit about kind of the average... projects you're working on today and how you see that changing into 2021 and 22 to get to the targets that you have there. And I assume that would cover what size of projects you're bidding on and really kind of what the competitive landscape looks like for these new types of projects that you need to book in order to achieve your targets. Just kind of wondering how should investors think about the size of the opportunities, the competitive landscape, and how confident we can be that you'll get to that target over the next couple of years?
spk04: Yeah, Steve, so I think the most important part, right, is as you think about where we've brought the business from. So just a few short years ago, we were a $300 million business, and this year we should exceed $1.5 billion, and we're talking about you know, approximating two billion next year and eventually growing that business to three plus. So I think that the the comfort should come in what we've been able to deliver over the last couple years, right? So I think we've proven our ability to grow the business. Now the question becomes, what does the market look like and does the market afford us the opportunity to continue to grow at the growth rates that we've enjoyed and seen over the last few years? I think that's the most important piece, right? When you look at the market, I don't think there's any question that there's a significant increase in the level of activity. I mean, quite frankly, the the number of opportunities that we're looking at and as we look at our bid schedules and the potential projects that are out there, I mean, it's never even been close, right? It's worse than any number we've ever seen in the past. So just with us winning our fair share of that, we feel relatively comfortable that we can get to that to those levels in short order. Historically, as you may remember, we were a wind business. We started this business as being a large wind contractor. Today we're a much more diversified entity. Our wind business is still a really good business and a business that's going to continue to grow, especially with the added focus that we're seeing in wind. But the reality is the other portions of the business are growing much faster. We've got a solar business that we started. About a year ago, maybe just slightly over a year ago, that business will probably exceed the size of our wind business in the coming years. It's going to have a fantastic year in 2021, and that's a big growth driver for us for 21 versus 20. We've significantly grown our biomass capabilities, our balance of plant capabilities, which we think is going to open a whole slew of new technologies on the clean energy side for us. We've worked on battery storage projects. We've worked on, you know, the associated transmission lines and substations that come with them. So it's just a very robust market. I think you see every one of the large utilities talking about their focus on clean energy and their move to clean energy. And as that continues to happen, we're going to be a big beneficiary of that.
spk03: That's very helpful. And, you know, clearly as you lay out, there are some really robust opportunities for your businesses, particularly outside of oil and gas, but it still seems like the backlog in these segments are still drifting a bit lower. So why do you think that is? And when could we see that reflect more positively? Is there a COVID impact here? Is it kind of permitting, just economic confidence? What's holding it back, and when can we see this really start to ramp up in the backlog?
spk04: Look, we've always said that backlog isn't going to be a consistent measure of where our business is going, right? Backlog is... has a lot of timing-based issues with it. The third quarter is a strong quarter for us, especially outside of our oil and gas business. It was a high watermark revenue quarter for us across a number of businesses, which makes it difficult to add backlog at those levels. Historically, if you look at our backlogs, the third quarter isn't generally the peak of our backlog levels because it's the quarter where we work the most backlog off. For us, it's timing. We have the benefit of seeing that you as an investor don't is where we sit on whether it's verbal awards, negotiated projects, what we're seeing from trends, what we're seeing that we're bidding on. And I can tell you that when you think about clean energy, we've never had, A, we've got a bunch of projects that I think we'll be able to announce in the coming quarters that will take us to record backlog levels. I think we said that in our prepared remarks. We expect to have record backlog levels in clean energy. And we hope it happens by year end, but we also understand that some things slip and it might be Q1. But in the coming quarters, we expect to have record backlog levels. When you see what's happening in communications, and I know there's some frustration because it's been talked about for a long time, But there's no question that that's coming, right? The best of that market is yet to come. And I think we're incredibly well positioned. We know what's happening. We're talking to customers. We know exactly what we expect and what's coming. So I think it's a matter of time before you see it in our numbers. Transmission, a good market. We've got some big awards that are pending where we've got limited notice to proceed that as soon as those contracts convert into full contracts, you're going to see a pretty big increase there. in backlog. And quite frankly, as crazy as it sounds, we will probably be up in backlog in our oil and gas business year-end, despite what should be a very good quarter. So, you know, albeit that the headline may not look as great on backlog, the reality is that as a company, we've never been in a better position than where we are today relative to the opportunities that are in front of us. Terrific. Thanks very much. Thanks, Steve.
spk01: Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz of Citi.
spk03: Hey, good morning, guys. Good morning, Andy.
spk08: Jose, you just mentioned the frustration in communications, and revenue has been, as you know, somewhat sticky in that mid-$600 million range for a while. Even its underlying growth has been relatively good. So at what point do you think the drags that you've had, whether it's DTV, permitting, Maybe T-Mobile taking longer to ramp up. At what point do you get really high conviction that you can break out of that recent range? Is it really the first half of 21 where you have pretty good conviction that you get sort of unstuck here?
spk04: Look, my conviction is already high, right? So I think it's – I hope that comes clear today, right? I understand – You know, the numbers don't necessarily substantiate it from what you're seeing, but my conviction is high. Why is my conviction high? Bunch of reasons, right? First, we're living in a year in 2020 that is not normal, right? We're living through the COVID impacts that have affected all of our customers in different ways. We've got Verizon that is completing or getting to the end of its first phase of construction, moving to its second phase. You've got AT&T and both Verizon that are counting on these spectrum auctions at the end of the year that are an important part of their wireless growth in the future. You have things that are happening. where I think we're seeing, you know, some slight slowdowns as it relates to some customers in the second half of the year, right, with others that from our business are doing a lot better, right? So we've got a mixed bag within our communications business. If you look at our Comcast revenues, our Comcast revenues were up 159% year over year in the third quarter. They're up 111% full year. You know, you talked about T-Mobile. Although it doesn't make our top 10 customer, a very important customer for us, and one, quite frankly, that we're actually pretty happy with what we've been able to accomplish. To put it in perspective, T-Mobile has 64 markets. They break out our work in 64 markets. What makes T-Mobile different is we have to compete at a market-by-market level. They're not national contracts. They're not like some of our other customers. But we've made it a priority to really, you know, compete and fight and win T-Mobile work. When the year started, we were in six of those markets. Today, we're in 28 out of those 64 markets. So what's our goal? Our goal is to win more work in each of those markets and ultimately expand the number of markets that we're in. So we think we've made great inroads. I think in the fourth quarter, you know, revenues with T-Mobile are going to approximate 2% of total company revenues. That's fantastic. That's a huge increase from where we started the year and from where we've been. So I think we've made a lot of progress there, right? It doesn't necessarily – you have to break it out customer by customer. I think next year, hopefully, you know, they're going to have a shot to break our top 10. So that's tremendous progress with the customer that we did very little work for in 2019. I think you're going to see activity levels from AT&T significantly increase next year versus where we've been. I think you're going to see some of the same from Verizon, right, and some of the wireless opportunities that we're going to get to enjoy with Verizon, right? and even DISH, right? DISH hasn't done a lot this year, but we know that they've got significant plans going forward. So for us, it's evident, right? We know what the conversations are with our customer. We know what's coming. We understand, you know, as you look at our numbers, obviously we have a fulfillment business that's significantly declined again. We think next year is going to be the first time that that business can actually hold its own and potentially even grow. We think that's going to be a huge differentiator, and as you look at our communications on a quarter-over-quarter revenue, But I think there's some things that have to be a given. One is we're a market leader in that business. When you think about wireline and wireless, we are a market leader in both of those segments. I think that's super important, and I think that positions us incredibly well for what's going to be a very, very active market. You know, I say it with high conviction. It's going to be in steps. I think we're going to have solid double-digit growth in communications over a long period of time, and there's going to be periods of time where we'll have step-up growth, right, where we'll see significant jumps in a particular quarter, then followed by long-term double-digit growth. And that's my expectation over the course of the next three to five years.
spk08: Very helpful, Jose. So maybe kind of a similar question in oil and gas. You know, just I think we all kind of would like a perspective here. Obviously, you know, you're going to have more large project work in 21. It's pushed out from 20. If I look at your segment over the last few quarters, it's averaged 400 million. Is that like a base of sort of, you know, small to midsize type work? And then you sort of add on large project. And when you talk to your customers, You know, are we sort of, you know, bouncing along the bottom, if you may, for a few quarters, and then we can improve as we go out into 21, 22? Any, you know, updated perspective would be helpful.
spk04: Sure. So I do think that the, you know, levels in Q3 is a sustainable level for us, you know, considering the backdrop that exists in oil and gas today. You know, this is challenging for us, and it's challenging for me personally, because I believe in our oil and gas business. I believe in it long-term. I believe that it's going to recover and be a significant contributor to Maastricht for a long period of time. With that said, I understand where the market is. I understand that I'm not going to convince the market of it. We'll see. It's going to play out. One way or the other, it's going to play out. So what are we trying to do as a business? We're trying to tell the market, look, let's assume that oil and gas is going to be In a down market, let's assume that, you know, it's going to continue to be roughly in the space that it is today. We all know that at some point demand is going to recover and there's going to be some improvement in the business, but let's just assume that it stays, you know, in a weakened price point, better than it is today, but in a weakened price point. We think levels are sustainable, and what we're trying to do, what we've really been working on, you know, on this call, and I think over the course of the last few months, is to try to give people a view of what MOSTIC would look like in a continued depressed oil and gas market, right? And I think we've laid that out. If I'm right and the oil and gas market turns out to be better, then consider it an option value, right? I think we're still a great brand in that industry. I think we're well known. I think we're going to, if the business gets better, we're going to be a big beneficiary of that business. But, you know, we're trying to give the view of what the business looks like in a depressed environment. And even in that view, it's a great view, right? We still think we can be a $10-plus billion revenue company. We think we can achieve double-digit margins. If you look at where we are today, even with our guidance of 800 to 811 million of EBITDA, we're trading at 5.8 times trailing EBITDA. Our peers are trading at 9 or greater, right? If you take that into account, right, that's an $80-plus stock price for Mostek. Therein lies the opportunity for the Mostek investor, right? Irrespective of how you feel about oil and gas, good or bad, if oil and gas turns out being better, that story and that price point and that potential valuation increase just further increases. But even if it doesn't, right, I still think we're dramatically undervalued relative to the rest of our business. And I think over time, as we execute and as we prove out our model, We'll get there.
spk08: Very helpful, Jose. Thank you.
spk04: Thank you, Andy.
spk01: Our next question today comes from Nicole Diltz, pardon me, Noelle Diltz of Stiefel.
spk00: Hi, gentlemen. Good morning.
spk03: Hi, Noelle. Hi.
spk00: So my first question is a little bit specific, but just given the TC Energy announcement around Keystone Excel and congrats on that award. I'm just curious how you're kind of thinking about the probability of that job moving forward given, you know, again, more regulatory challenges and, you know, if we should expect to see that go into backlog next quarter.
spk04: So, look, I think when we talk about oil and gas for 2021, we're going to be up next year, right? Just based on the projects in our current backlog, of which that project is not in current backlog, our business will be up. I find it very difficult to see how our business wouldn't increase on a year-over-year basis. I think there's time to tell as to whether Keystone moves forward or not. We're obviously excited about our participation in the project. You know, I am more bullish than some relative to the project. I think they've done a lot to get to the point where they're going to build it. We don't know for sure. You know, if the reality is that if everything that we've got pending and coming, if it all happens in 2021, the reality is we'd be more like a $3 billion oil and gas business in 21. And we're never going to guide to that. We're never going to think about that. You know, we think there's going to be We're assuming that a bunch of work is going to slip into 2022. But with any individual project, you could almost take any individual project out of what we're thinking for 2021 and we're still going to grow based on 2020 levels.
spk00: Okay, great. So that and others might represent some upside. And then second, just given the strength of your cash flow generation and really where your balance sheet stands today, I know you spoke a bit about potential share repurchase on the call, but could you also give us a little bit more of an update, a little bit more depth on how you're thinking about M&A, targets in the market, if the current environment is yielding some opportunities to pick up peers who may be struggling a little bit more? Just kind of curious, and also which markets you think are most interesting as you look forward.
spk04: I think there's a reason you haven't seen us do share buybacks in the last months, and a lot of it has to do with how we view the business going forward and the potential opportunities that we see out in the marketplace. I can tell you that we are extremely very active in exploring and analyzing M&A partners, probably as active as we've been in the last 10 years. I can't remember a time where we've been in more discussions and in more negotiations than we are today. So for those reasons, I think we've tried to take our time in deciding what we do with the liquidity that we're sitting on. So I do think you can expect us to be more acquisitive in the coming quarters than you've probably seen us be in a while. We think there's a lot of really interesting and good targets. We've been talking about it a couple of quarters. Obviously, these deals take time, and we want to make sure we make good decisions around them. We continue to evaluate share repurchases because, again, you know, we talked about it. We think our valuation and where we're trading at is an extremely attractive entry point domestic, but there are really good opportunities for us to continue to grow our business. Most of our growth has been organic over the course of the last few years. We do think we're going to be able to sprinkle in some M&A activity that's going to help us get to these targets faster. I would say that we're very active in all of the segments, probably with the exception of oil and gas, and we see really good opportunities to further our portfolio, to grow our geographic footprint, and to add and grow the different level of services we can offer to our customers within each of those segments.
spk00: Thank you.
spk01: Thanks, Noel. Our next question comes from Alex Regal of B. Reilly.
spk06: Thank you. Next quarter, gentlemen.
spk03: Thank you, Alex. Good morning.
spk06: Good morning. Jose, I think everybody hears you when you say that you expect sort of growth in 2021. I suspect everybody is assuming that's on the top line. And therefore, I think the market is somewhat struggling with how to think about EBITDA in 2021 versus 2020. Can you give us a few areas to focus on? to think about what the drivers are to EBITDA growth in 2021 versus maybe a modest EBITDA contraction in 2021?
spk04: So I would say that we don't expect EBITDA to contract in 21. We expect EBITDA growth in 21 versus 20. But there's gives and puts and takes from that, right? So I do think oil and gas EBITDA will come down on a full year basis in 21 relative to where it was in 20. We've talked at length about some of the cost plus nature of some of the larger projects and how that's a little bit diluted to margin. So as we think about the business, and we've said this for a long time, we think that high teams range is the right range to think about our oil and gas business on a longer term nature. I think that's achievable for us in 21. I think our communications margins have been really strong the last couple quarters. I think we've talked about hitting double digits for the full year in 20. The first quarter was a little bit down. The further quarters have improved a lot. I think we'll see slight improvement in 21, but we do expect to have to start ramping up back for growth in 21. So I don't know that there's much margin expansion in 21 relative to what we saw in 20. I think we'll see further margin expansion in both our transmission and clean energy businesses on a full year basis in 21 relative to what we are today. And we obviously have a lot of growth coming from those, so I think all that adds up. So we will see from a total company perspective, I would expect our EBITDA margins to decline in 21 versus where they are in 20. Still be, you know, strong double digits. You know, we're not giving guidance today, but, you know, I would expect it to be slightly below where they are in 20. with some growth from 21 to 20. Again, we're not ready to give guidance, but I think that's a pretty darn specific view of what our expectations are as of today.
spk06: It sounds like you've been shopping around for a number of acquisitions. The process has taken some time here. What do you think some of those hurdles are? Are sellers unwilling to sell at low price points? Is there a lot of competition for acquisitions? What's the holdup?
spk04: A couple things. I think we have a track record of being very successful in the acquisitions that we've made. I think the reason that we have is because we take our time up front. We understand that For a deal to make sense for us, we have to bring something to the table, right? We have to have a plan on how we take that company from where it currently is to where it can get to. And I think that the planning process on the front end is what ultimately makes acquisitions successful or not. So for that, I think we've always taken longer than probably others have. It is a competitive market. There's a lot of money out there. There are some companies that are obviously shopping for the highest multiple, and those are companies that You know, for lots of reasons we're not going to be engaged in and we're not going to see those transactions. You know, it's tough for us trading at 5.7 times. I think there's very few companies that are willing to sell at those kind of multiples, although there's some, right? And I think we have to sell our vision and how we think we can help operators grow their business and make the potential of the business that they see in front of them. That's what's been successful for us in the past. I think we're getting close. I think, again, I don't think it's a function of doing anything wrong or taking too long. I think this is just a customary time that we would take to make sure that the acquisitions that we make are going to work for us long term.
spk06: Very helpful.
spk01: Thank you.
spk04: Thanks, Alex.
spk01: Our next question comes from Jamie Cook of Credit Suisse.
spk07: Hi. Good morning. A nice quarter. What's the question today? Most of the questions have been asked, but, Jose, obviously you've done a good job strategically with the company, you know, identifying growth platforms early and delivering on the margin profile. I guess the next leg is I think about sort of unlocking shareholder value. Obviously people are placing, you know, higher valuations on certain parts of the business relative to others. So sort of in that vein, is there any sort of strategic initiatives, even if oil and gas does come back for you to somewhat strategically temper the The growth of that business as people identify, you know, put higher valuations on, you know, whether it's communications or transmission or clean energy and infrastructure is another way to sort of improve your multiple. Or is it more a story of, you know, let the market figure out that, you know, oil and gas isn't as cyclical as it is. Your ability to manage in an oil and gas downturn, you know, is better than the market expects. Thanks.
spk04: So Jamie, what my experience has taught me over the years is don't overreact to the market. And I think that's important. With that said, we're trying to manage our business and understand our business over a very long period of time. We understand the concerns that exist with oil and gas. We understand the potential pitfalls and challenges that are going to be there potentially long term. So I think for us, the first phase is to get people comfortable with the nature of our oil and gas business and the recurring component of it and and the diversity and strength within it. So if we can convince people over time through execution that we can maintain a certain level of revenue in that business irrespective of what's happening in the cycle, we will get a high valuation for that portion of the business. If it's sustainable, people will pay more for it. And we get that. So there is a good portion of that business that falls into that category. I think in the middle of a pandemic and in the middle of demand issues relative to that industry, it may not be as clear, but I think over time that will prove out. Again, we've got a good brand, a good name in that business. I do think it's going to come back. I think we will evaluate all of our options over a longer period of time. We're not going to react. We're not going to We're going to take our time and be measured around our approach. Ultimately, we want to increase shareholder value as much as we can. Up to date, right, it's been an important part of our business. It's been a good margin business. It's been a business that we've been able to grow and react to and meet the cycles and meet the challenges within that business very well. You know, I also think there's going to be dramatically less competition in the next couple years in that business, which is going to create further opportunities for companies like ours. So we're watching it. we understand the concerns that exist with it we want people to understand the portions of the business that we think should be valued within that business there's portions of it that should be valued at different in different ways and over time we're going to continue
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