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spk08: Good morning and welcome to Newmont's fourth quarter results and 2023 guidance conference call. All participants will be in listening only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call conference over to Tom Palmer, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.
spk15: Thank you, operator. Good morning and thank you all for joining Newmont's fourth quarter results and 2023 guidance call. Today I'm joined by Rob Atkinson and Brian Tabolt, our interim CFO, along with other members of our executive team, and we will all be available to answer questions at the end of the call. Before I begin, Please note our cautionary statement and refer to our SEC filings, which can be found on our website. We have quite a bit to cover this morning, so I wanted to give you an overview of the topics we'll be sharing. First, I'll cover the highlights for 22 and our strong finish to the year. Then I'll pass to Brian to take us through the financials. Next, Rob will walk us through our operational results for the fourth quarter and give a preview of what to expect this year from each of our operations and our two key projects. I'll then summarise our 2023 and longer term outlook, along with our capital allocation strategy and the expectations for our 2023 dividend. And finally, I'll wrap up with some comments on our proposed combination with Newcrest. So with that, let's get started with our 2022 highlights. Newmont finished the year with a strong fourth quarter. leveraging our scale, our teams, and our unmatched portfolio of world-class assets to deliver industry-leading ESG operational and financial results. We are well positioned to continue leading the sector whilst remaining firmly grounded in our values and driven by our purpose to create value and improve lives through sustainable, responsible mining. At Newmont, When we talk about being a values-driven organisation, we have at the very core of this work the protection of the health and safety of our workforce. This simply must be at the heart of any sustainable and responsible mining business. And perhaps the most important thing to share with you today is that we have remained fatality-free for over four years. We remain committed to continuously improve our discipline and dedicated approach to safety, maintaining a clear focus on eliminating the risks that could lead to a fatality. We do this through the globally consistent management of the critical controls that must be in place at all times to prevent a fatality. Last year, we completed more than 620,000 interactions by our leaders in the field that were focused on these controls, a process that we call critical control verifications. This was an increase of more than 30% over the previous year, demonstrating the importance that we place on visible felt leadership to maintain a safe environment at every one of our 12 managed operations, our major projects and our exploration sites around the world. We also continue to work to improve the effectiveness of our critical control verifications through increased coaching and development of our frontline leaders. And last year, more than 50 Niemont leaders from across the world participated in field-based fatality risk and culture reviews at sites that they do not typically work at. The purpose of these reviews is to identify any systemic issues or improvement opportunities at our managed operations. As a direct consequence of all of this work, in 2022, we experienced a 36% reduction in the number of significant potential events from the previous year. However, health and safety is an area where you must always maintain a sense of chronic unease. We still experience at least one significant potential event every 10 days. And each and every one of these are an opportunity to learn and improve. At Newmont, we recognise that a strong safety culture is not only an indicator of a reliable, well-run business, it is fundamental to sustainably delivering on our commitments to our employees, our contracted partners, our local communities and all of our stakeholders. Newmont delivered a strong fourth quarter, safely meeting our commitments in 22 and finishing the year in a position of strength with momentum coming into 23. We met our original guidance for production set back in December 21, producing an industry-leading 6 million ounces of gold and 1.3 million gold equivalent ounces from copper, silver, lead and zinc. We ended the year in line with our guidance ranges for unit costs as we continue to manage our exposure to the global pressures on input prices and labour costs that have impacted the entire mining industry. These results generated $4.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $3.2 billion in cash from continuing operations. With $1.1 billion in free cash flow, after reinvesting $2.7 billion into our business last year. As a key part of that reinvestment, exploration has always been and continues to be a core competency at Newmont. It is a critical component of our long-term strategy. This morning we announced that our global reserve base now sits at 96 million ounces and we have successfully replaced depletion for the year. In fact, in the almost four years since we acquired Gold Corp and established the joint venture in Nevada, we have replaced all of our depletion with strong reserve additions. As well as our robust base of gold reserves, we also reported nearly 600 million ounces of silver reserves and 16 billion pounds of copper reserves, providing natural exposure to a metal of growing importance for reducing carbon emissions. Throughout 2022, we maintained a strong, flexible, investment-grade balance sheet whilst continuing to reinvest in our future and providing shareholder returns of more than $1.7 billion through our established dividend framework. These results, along with our stable financial position and strong free cash flow, from the world's largest attributable gold production base, has Newmont positioned to safely deliver on our commitments in 2023. And with that, I'll hand it across to Brian to take us through our financial results for the fourth quarter.
spk09: Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. Let's start with the financial highlights for the quarter. Newmont had a strong finish to the year. In the fourth quarter, we delivered $3.2 gold prices adjusted EBITDA of nearly 1.2 billion dollars and an impressive 4.6 billion dollars for the full year despite historically high and industry-wide inflationary pressures and strong free cash flow of 364 million dollars it is worth noting that fourth quarter free cash flow included nearly 650 million dollars of capital spend an increase of more than 200 million dollars from the fourth quarter of last year This demonstrated commitment to reinvestment is a core component of Newmont's clear strategy to progress the most profitable projects in our industry-leading organic pipeline, further strengthening Newmont's portfolio for the long term. Compared to the third quarter, Newmont delivered strong spotline performance with a 16% increase in gold sales driven off the back of a strong fourth quarter production and an improved realized gold price of $1,758 per ounce. approximately $2 billion of non-cash accounting adjustments. These adjustments, which are further detailed in our earnings release in 10-K, include $700 million of non-cash reclamation adjustments, primarily related to higher estimated closure costs at Yonacocha and Porcupine, resulting from cost inflation and increased water management costs in non-operating portions of the sites, and $1.3 billion of non-cash impairments, which were comprised of approximately $500 million of asset impairments at CC&V, and $800 million of goodwill impairments at Cerro Negro and Porcupine. The site-specific goodwill amounts originated from the Goldcorp purchase price allocation four years ago, which was based on best estimates of each site's value and country risk assumptions at that time. It should be noted that incrementally more value has been generated at Penesquito than was originally allocated at the time. as Panasquito alone has since delivered more than $700 million in annual synergies, far exceeding the value of these non-cash charges. Taking these adjustments into account, along with other immaterial items, we reported fourth quarter adjusted net income $348 million, or 44 cents per diluted share, which, despite slightly higher costs from inventory write-downs and royalties, represents an increase of 17 cents from the previous quarter, Delivered by our balanced global portfolio, these strong results demonstrate Newmont's continued financial strength and stability, enabling us to be flexible and resilient as we continue to generate long-term value for our shareholders heading into 2023. Now I'll hand it over to Rob for an update on our operational results for the fourth quarter and a preview of 2023.
spk14: Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. As Tom mentioned, our team safely delivered an exceptional finish to the year, and we're very proud of what our 30,000 strong Newmont team was able to achieve during 2022, despite the very challenging and volatile operating environment that the whole mining industry was navigating. Today, I'll cover the site level highlights for the fourth quarter, along with an overview of what to expect in 2023 from each of our operations and our two key development projects. So turning to the next slide, let's get started with Penosquito. When we acquired Goldcorp in 2019, we committed to delivering synergies of $365 million per year by applying the Newmont operating model to deliver value from G&A, supply chain, and most importantly, the implementation of our proven full potential continuous improvement program. Penosquito alone has blown that target out of the water. delivering more than $700 million in annual synergies since we closed the acquisition nearly four years ago. A core capability at Newmont is safely operating Tier 1 open pit and underground mines, and over 80% of this value was delivered from mining and processing improvements, and we have not stopped yet. Penesquito delivered a strong fourth quarter, setting a new record in December for the tons we moved ex-pit and exceeding our full-year production guidance for the third consecutive year under the Newmont Operating Model. During the fourth quarter, mining was primarily from the Chile-Colorado pit as planned, resulting in lower gold grades and higher levels of silver, lead, and zinc content. And as we progress this year, we expect this mining sequence and trend to continue at our two-pit polymetallic mine, as previously communicated and in line with our long-term mine plans. In the first quarter, we expect gold grade to decline more than 20% compared to the fourth quarter due to this mine sequence. And for the year, we expect gold production to be around 25% lower than 2022, whilst our gold equivalent ounces will be steady year on year. In South America, Yanacocha delivered slightly higher production during the fourth quarter compared to quarter three. With higher production expected in 2023 from higher leach recoveries due to the continued use of injection leaching, we continue to progress our review of the scope and the pace of the Sulfize project and expect to spend approximately $300 to $350 million of development capital in 2023 and again in 2024. This spend is related to advanced engineering, procurement, and completing camp construction. At Merion, the site delivered its highest quarterly production in two years due to record mill performance combined with higher grades mined from both the Meraba and Merion 2 pits. Merion is expected to deliver lower production and higher unit costs in 2023 as we begin stripping the next phase of the Merion pit, resulting in lower grades presenting to the mill as part of our planned mine sequence for the site. In particular, in the first quarter, And finally, at Cerro Negro, the site delivered another solid quarter due to higher grade and strong mill performance. Production from Cerro Negro is expected to steadily increase each quarter in 2023 due to sustained productivity improvements from our Newmont operating model. This will result in progressively higher tons mined and processed throughout the year. We continue to progress the first wave of district expansions at Cerro Negro, which will contribute to the higher production this year. And we just hit an important milestone with the first blast to commence development at the silica cat portal. In December, this project received approval for $200 million that will be spent over the next two years to develop Cerro Negro's future through both the Marianas and Eastern districts. And these funds will primarily be spent on underground development activities. This investment will extend mine life beyond 2030, and we expect to see annual production increase to above 350,000 ounces beginning in 2024. Since we acquired Cerro Negro nearly four years ago, we've improved underground development rates by more than 50% and doubled the size of our land package to over 1,000 square kilometers, demonstrating both our operating capability and our confidence in the untapped growth potential from this highly prospective gold district in Argentina. In North America, our Canadian operations all delivered higher production in quarter four. A combined increase of 30,000 ounces compared to quarter three due to strong grades and improved productivity. At Eleanor, we finished 2022 with the strongest quarterly performance of the year. And importantly, key roles are all filled the team is ready to deliver higher ounces in 2023 this increase is largely driven by sustained productivity improvements as higher underground mining rates and strong mill performance will offset the lower grades coming through at muscle white we delivered our best quarterly performance in terms of gold production development meters and total tons mined in more than five years We anticipate production in 2023 to be weighted around 65% to the second half of the year, steadily increasing each quarter as mining continues in the PQ deeps area. Porcupine delivered its strongest quarterly performance of the year and annual production is expected to slightly improve in 2023 due to higher tons mined and higher grade. We continue to progress the project to replace production from the Hollinger pit production with a layback of the Pamoor pit. An investment decision is now expected in late 23, as we've been able to implement improvements to extend the life of the Hollinger pit. And at CC&B, we achieved our highest December production in over three years, resulting in a solid fourth quarter from higher funds mined and placed on our leach pansy. Production in 2023 is expected to decrease slightly due to lower grades as we extend mine life through the stripping of a layback in the Globe Hill pit. In 2023, our four North American operations are expected to deliver nearly 1 million ounces of gold. This increase over 2022 will be safely delivered by a strong leadership team of experienced general managers who are in place, a stable workforce, and without the challenges and constraints from COVID Waddington delivered an exceptionally strong quarter with 20% higher gold production and more than 50% higher copper production compared to quarter three. We set two important records in the fourth quarter. A new all-time monthly production record in December for both gold and copper on the back of higher grades and strong mill performance. And the best quarterly performance for our autonomous haul truck fleet for the tons moved per hour a key metric for every open pit mine. Reaching these important milestones at a cornerstone operation like Boddington is a tremendous achievement and we are proud of the hard work and dedication that our team has demonstrated in implementing leading technologies to promote both safety and productivity. The lessons we have learned will benefit not only Newmont but the gold industry as a whole and we will look to leverage this technology and our experience at Boddington as we expand the use of autonomous solutions across our global business. In 2023, gold production is expected to remain steady compared to 2022, as continued strong mill performance and tons mined offset lower grade associated with further stripping in Boddington's South Pit. Tannamine maintained strong production throughout the year and reliably delivered a solid fourth quarter from higher tons mined combined with higher grades. despite an extreme weather event and record rainfall across northwest Australia late in the quarter. Gold production is expected to be lower in 2023 and 2024 due to lower grades from the planned stop sequencing to allow for the underground construction of the crushing and conveying infrastructure associated with the Tannamine expansion project. Due to the extreme weather event and associated flooding, the main access route for supplies to Tannamine, the Tannamine track, has been closed from late December through mid-February. And although our fourth quarter was largely unaffected by this event, critical consumables such as cyanide, explosives, and other reagents that can only come to site by road have not been able to be delivered over the last six to eight weeks. And we have consumed the stocks that we maintained on site. As a consequence, We had deceased milling operations at Tannermine over the last few weeks, and this will have an impact on gold production for the first quarter. However, the bottleneck at Tannermine is the mining operation, not the mill and plant, and mining has continued throughout this period with the ore being stockpiled in front of the mill. We restart the mill tomorrow and expect to recover the ounces that will be delayed from Q1. But that now means that we will have a production profile this year that will be strongly weighted to the second half. And with this impact, we expect only around 10% of Tannermine's 2023 gold production to be delivered during the first quarter. We also continue to progress the expansion at Tannermine. Overall progress is now at 50%, with engineering procurement effectively complete. protecting the project from any new inflationary or supply chain challenges in the coming years. 373 meters of concrete lining has now been installed in the upper part of the 1500 meter deep shaft, and this furnishing of the shaft continues to be the critical path work for the project. Underground development for the project has largely been completed, with crusher and conveyor chambers all fully excavated and ready for construction And as I signalled last July, following the completion of the four important project milestones of shaft reaming, headframe construction, underground development and the opening of state and international borders in Australia, we would assess project capital costs and schedule. We are expecting total capital costs of between $1.2 and $1.3 billion and the project completion in the second half of 2025. This is consistent with the direction we provided last July. Tannermine Expansion 2 remains a key project in Newmont's portfolio and underpins Tannermine's future as a long-life, low-cost producer well into the 2040s. Turning to Africa, our two operations in Ghana delivered this year's strongest quarterly performance in Q4. increasing production by more than 45,000 ounces compared to Q3. In December, ACHIEME delivered its strongest monthly production in seven years on the back of higher tons mined, higher grades and strong mill performance. In 2023, ACHIEME is expected to deliver lower production as we progress stripping of the next layback in the pit. And as a consequence, 2023 gold production will be around 20% lower than last year as a result of lower grades. Core grade is expected to decline by more than 40% in Q1 compared to Q4. Moving across to AHAFO, the mill achieved record throughput during the fourth quarter, benefiting from higher grade and mining rates as Sabika Underground really starts to hit its stride. In 2023, gold production from AHAFO is expected to steadily increase each quarter as we open up more drop points in the Sabika Underground. lifting mining rates and resulting in the delivery of more higher-grade ore to the mill over the course of the year. As a consequence, gold production will be strongly weighted to the second half of the year, with around 15% of the year's production to be delivered in the first quarter. And I'm pleased to announce that we are making great progress with our new mine in Ghana, Ahapo North, where we gained land access and have commenced construction and highway relocation activities. AHAFO North expands our existing footprint in the AHAFO complex, adding more than 3 million ounces of gold production over an initial 13-year mine life. And when combined with AHAFO South, just 30 kilometers away, we expect to deliver an average of 850,000 gold ounces per year, through until at least 2030 from our AHAFO complex. Leaning into one of Newmont's core capabilities, we have conducted extensive regulatory and community engagements to ensure that from the very start of this project, we earn and maintain social acceptance. The process of engagement is critical work that cannot and must not be rushed. There's an African proverb that we consistently apply at Newmont, if you want to go fast, you go alone. If you want to go far, we go together. And as I signaled last July, gaining land access and commencing construction activities was a key milestone for us to reach in order to assess project capital costs and schedule. We're expecting total capital costs of between $950 million and $1.05 billion in project completion in the second half of 2025. This is consistent with the direction we provided last July. We remain very excited about AHAFO North and look forward to bringing you updates as we develop this new mine over the next two years and create value from the best unmined gold deposit in West Africa. Finally, to our two non-managed joint ventures. Our 38.5% ownership of Nevada gold mines and 40% interest in Pueblo Vallejo contributed 1.45 million ounces of attributable gold production in 2022. For Nevada gold mines, disappointingly, fourth quarter and full year production fell below the lower end of the guidance range and above the higher end for costs that were provided by Barrick in November 2022. However, most concerning was that these two non-managed joint ventures have experienced three tragic fatalities over the last 12 months. As per the 2023 guidance provided last week by Barrick, Gold production is expected to increase by around 10% from both Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo in 2023. Both of these joint ventures are core to the Newmont portfolio, and we look forward to our managing partners safely delivering on their 2023 commitments. And with that, I'll hand it back to Tom. Thanks, Rob.
spk15: So bringing everything that Rob just covered together, we finished 22 strongly. and we are bringing that momentum into this year. As we've been signalling for some time, in 2023, we're expecting to produce around 6 million ounces of gold at an all-in-sustaining cost of around $1,200 an ounce. Sustaining capital lifts to around $1.1 billion. Exploration and advanced project spend will be around $500 million. and we will see our highest development capital spend in a generation at around $1.3 billion. At Newmont, we develop our business plans with discipline around the assumptions we make. In 2023, we anticipate that the current economic environment will continue to be volatile, and with this context, believe that it is particularly important to understand the sensitivity of our free cash flow and all its sustaining costs to the key assumptions we have made. We have taken a conservative view of gold price for 2023 and are assuming $1,700 an ounce. This table provides our sensitivities to other metal prices, oil, as well as the Australian and Canadian exchange rates. We have assumed normalising levels of inflation as we progress through the year, with an assumption that the year-over-year escalation rate will be around 3%. And as we do each year, we expect that this escalation will be offset by our ongoing discipline in delivering on full potential improvements. This year, we are also including a guide on the sensitivity to our three main cost areas. 50% of our direct costs are labour, an area under continued pressure in our mining industry. We have assumed our labour costs will increase 4.5% compared to last year before returning to more historical levels. And we are keeping a close eye on contract labour, which tends to be much more volatile. Materials and consumables account for the next 30%. We are seeing input prices for cyanide and explosives beginning to normalise with improvements in global supply chain performance. In addition, the price of the steel we use for grinding media and spare parts is now in line with last year's average prices. These two categories, along with fuel and energy, remain highly volatile and impacted by the many macroeconomic events the world is experiencing. High levels of inflation have a material impact on our unit costs, And we will continue to remain transparent with the market as we monitor the inflationary environment over the coming months. Turning now to seasonality on the next slide. We anticipate that gold production this year will be weighted 55% to the second half, driven by a HAFO, TANAMI, Henosquito, and Serenegro, as Rob just explained. Q1 is expected to be our lowest gold production quarter with approximately 21% of annual production. However, we expect to have relatively steady spending for both our sustaining and development capital throughout the year. We anticipate that production will increase and unit costs will decline each quarter as the year progresses. Turning to our five-year outlook on the next slide. Supported by the industry's most robust, balanced and diverse portfolio of operations and projects, we expect to deliver strong gold production and improving unit costs over the next five years, bringing our all-in sustaining costs to around $1,000 to $1,100 per ounce by 2025. This cost improvement will be driven by strong production from our world-class assets, Boddington, Tanami, Ahafo and Penasquito. combined with the delivery of new low-cost ounces from our investments in a half-hour north, Tanami Expansion 2 and the district expansions at Cerro Negro. Our nearer-term cost reductions are also supported by the delivery of full potential cost and productivity improvements across our 12 managed operations. This solid outlook combined with the strength of our team and the quality of our assets, has the ability to generate substantial attributable cash flows throughout the gold price cycle, allowing us to confidently execute on our capital allocation priorities and maintain our position as the world's leading gold company. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged with a clear and balanced strategy. First and foremost, to maintain the industry's strongest balance sheet with financial strength and flexibility. Second, to reinvest in our business through exploration and organic growth. And finally, to return excess cash to shareholders through dividends. I'll take a moment to step through each of these priorities, explaining their significance to Newmont and how they work together in order for us to deliver a long-term, stable outlook. Starting with our first priority, Newmont has maintained an investment-grade balance sheet with financial strength and flexibility to ensure we have the right balance between resilience, returns, and the ability to react. We have made deliberate efforts over the last few years to build the industry's strongest balance sheet, growing our cash balances to $3.7 billion with total liquidity of $6.7 billion and no debt due until 2029. This robust platform has allowed Newmont to enter the current phase of the commodity cycle in a uniquely strong financial position, enabling us to be resilient and agile in times of market instability. Our second priority is to reinvest in our business through exploration and organic growth. ensuring that our current and future reserve and resource position can continue to support our industry-leading portfolios of operations and projects. Our long-term outlook assumes annual investment of around $1 to $1.2 billion in sustaining capital, around $400 to $500 million in exploration and studies, and around $800 to $1 billion in development capital. This is an average annual investment of around $2.5 billion, a critical component in Newmont's strategy to sustain strong production levels and improve margins over the long term.
spk03: As I've mentioned, we are currently in a period of meaningful reinvestment as we continue to advance the projects that we have in execution, including the expansion of Tadamai and our new mine at Huffer North.
spk15: Due to the higher capital spend anticipated this year, Newmont expects to reinvest approximately $2.9 billion in 2023, which is around $400 million higher than our average annual investment.
spk03: And it's also important to note that these numbers exclude our equity method contributions to support the Pueblo Viejo expansion. This level of reinvestment is key to maintaining our strong production profile for the next 10, 20, 30 years.
spk15: Our portfolio of operations and organic project pipelines will produce more than 6 million ounces of attributable gold each year through until at least 2032, the most of any company in our industry. This profile is then further enhanced by the production of approximately one million gold equivalent ounces from copper, silver, lead and zinc. Importantly, the majority of this metal production comes from the most favourable mining jurisdictions, balanced across 12 managed operations, two non-managed joint ventures in nine countries around the world. And it is this strength and scale that enables Newmont to confidently execute on a clear and consistent long-term strategy to deliver value to our workforce, our local communities and to our shareholders. Then our final capital allocation priority is to return excess cash to shareholders, which is primarily done through our industry-leading dividend framework. Recognising the importance of shareholder returns, two and a half years ago, Newmont was the first in the gold industry to introduce a structured dividend framework. This framework provides shareholders with a stable base dividend of $1 per share, set at our gold reserve price of $1,400 per ounce, and a variable component based on incremental free cash flow above that base assumption. As we do each year, we have evaluated the 2023 dividend payout in conjunction with our annual business planning process. The expected range for dividends to be paid this year is $1.40 to $1.80 per share, and this range has been calibrated at a conservative $1,700 gold price. Anticipated incremental free cash flow in 2023 has been adjusted to incorporate the current input costs being experienced across the mining industry from unprecedented levels of global inflation, the $400 million of high capital spend above our long-term average, and considering the strength of our balance sheet during this period of meaningful reinvestment. Taking all of these considerations into account and in line with what we have been discussing since our last earnings call in October, This morning we declared a fourth quarter dividend of 40 cents per share or $1.60 per share on an annualized basis. This continues to be the highest dividend per share in the gold sector and within the top 80% of large cap dividend payers in the S&P 500. With this dividend declared, Newmont will have returned over $4 billion to shareholders through dividends since introducing our framework in October 2020, maintaining a dividend yield above 3% for nine consecutive quarters. Our proven track record of returning cash to shareholders clearly demonstrates our ongoing commitment to shareholder returns and the balanced long-term approach that we apply to our capital allocation strategy ensuring that Newmont is well positioned to create value for many decades to come. So, I've just taken you through the gold industry's strongest business. Now, from that solid foundation, let me walk you through the value proposition for our potential combination with Newcrest. Before I begin, please understand that other than these prepared remarks, I'm not able to provide any further details about the Newcrest proposal at this time as this is a live engagement. Our proposal would combine two of the sector's top senior gold producers and set the standard for sustainable and responsible gold mining. Newmont has a long history and shared heritage with Newcrest. establishing our Australian subsidiary way back in 1966, a subsidiary that would become Newcrest some 25 years later. As part of that shared history, our companies also have shared commitments to a strong safety culture and leading ESG practices, which is in addition to the complementary portfolios of world-class assets located in low-risk mining jurisdictions. Our proposed combination would strengthen our established position in Australia, creating efficiencies and value with a shared workforce and large-scale supply chain optimisation opportunities. And it would build upon the district potential in British Columbia's highly prospective Golden Triangle through a combination of operating mines and development projects that would deliver value through shared technology, local capabilities and all-body experience. With our scale and track record of successfully managing some of the mining world's top T1 assets, this combination would leverage Newmont's experience from the Gold Corp acquisition, which demonstrated that we can generate meaningful improvements to performance, stability and profitability, especially at large open pit and underground operations. We have delivered more than $1 billion in annual synergies from our Gold Corp acquisition in 2019, far surpassing our initial estimate of $365 million and improving the ongoing performance of the acquired assets through Newmont's operating model. At Penesquito alone, we have generated over $700 million of annual synergies, by optimizing the processing plant and mining fleet, while sustainably addressing community relations issues that had disrupted that site for over a decade. And as a reminder, upon completion of the Gold Corp acquisition, we focused on optimizing the combined portfolio, completing asset sales of more than $1.5 billion from that combined portfolio within the first 12 months. And given the challenges that the mining industry is currently facing from a volatile macroeconomic environment, there has never been a better time for Newmont and Newcrest to come together. We are disappointed that the Newcrest Board rejected our proposal and we are currently engaging with the Newcrest team in relation to their offer to provide us access to more information. And if we can reach an agreement, this combination of industry-leading talent and decades of collective experience would create significant value across the global business with an ideal mix of gold and copper, strengthening Newmont's overall position as the world's leading gold company. As I indicated, I will not be able to make provide any further details on the new CRESP proposal at this time, as this is a live engagement. But I want to be clear with everyone on today's call that we will continue to be disciplined as we assess all of the options to move forward and we will act in the best interest of our shareholders. Thank you. And with that, I'll now turn it over to the operator to open the lines up for questions.
spk08: Certainly. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then 2. At this time, we will pause to assemble our roster. The first question comes from the line of Emily Chiang of Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
spk04: Good morning, Tom and team, and thank you for the update this morning. My first question is just around the two expansion projects that you have going on, Tenomai 2.5 and North. I know you're targeting first gold by the second half of 2025, but can you talk through what perhaps are the key constraints there that you may face in achieving that timeline? Is it labor? Is it supply chain? I guess how much buffer is being built into that construction period there?
spk15: Thanks, Emily, and good morning. Both those projects have hit, as Rob was describing, important milestones that allow us to assess both schedule and cost to complete. So for us at Ahapo North, it was achieving land access, which we have achieved. So that means we can now essentially pin our ears back and build a mine that we've built three times before. It's the same mine as a HAFO, it's the same mine as a CHIM, it's the same mine as Miriam, and our EPCM contractor is Lycopodium, who have been our key partner in Ghana for over 20 years. So we know how to build a HAFO North very well. We've hit the key milestone in terms of land access. Our communication towers are going up, land's being cleared, we've got CAT gear on hard stands, temporary fuel facilities in place, and the... schedule and the cost we provide, we are highly confident in delivering because we've hit that critical milestone. For Tadamite 2, the critical milestone for us was completing the reaming of the shaft, completing the development underground, so some massive chambers underground that our mining team has very successfully completed and safely completed. The installation of the head frame above that shaft and the mobilization of the key team, very specialized team, that will spend the next two years in a Galloway, heading down that shaft, forming concrete and then installing pipes and infrastructure, and then a separate team that will head underground to install conveyors and crushers. So with that key milestone, we have confidence in both the schedule and the cost to run that project to complete. Engineering's done, procurement's done, we're 50% complete. So those were two important milestones, which is why we held back to now before we provided the update. So Emily, you should have a high degree of confidence in the EMOD team to deliver those projects within schedule and cost.
spk04: Great, that's very helpful. And just to follow up around the cost outlook for the next couple of years there, I know you've mentioned we should expect to see costs come down by 2026 on some increased production, but as we think about the 2024 and 2025 outlook, Is the step down there from 23 through 26 also attributable to some production increases or is there any sort of baked-in expectation for the labour and consumable costs also coming down in that period as well?
spk15: We're certainly expecting costs and inflation levels for this year to be the same as 22. We do assume a little bit of easing in 24, 5 and 6, so that is partly a driver. In 24, there's also the work we're doing on productivity improvements and the additional ounces that you see coming through in that production profile. And a big mine there that contributes to that is Penasquito. It's a polymetallic mine. The gold equivalent ounces stay pretty stable, but depending on which pit we're in, the gold ounces change quite significantly year on year, as you're seeing, 22 to 23. So if you have a year of higher gold ounces, that obviously helps you all in sustaining costs for gold. So there's some easing of inflation in 24, productivity improvements in 24, some more ounces from lower cost operations coming through. 25, 26, 27 is really driven by the low cost ounces coming in from the investments we're making, Serenegro, Tanami, Harpo North, and from our non-managed joint ventures. We'll see some low cost ounces coming through from the Pemblo Viejo expansion. So there's a number of factors there.
spk04: Great. Thank you.
spk15: Thanks, Emily.
spk08: Thank you. The next question comes from Jackie Przybylowski with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.
spk06: Thanks very much, and congratulations on the quarter. The first question I want to ask is regarding a press release you came out with a little while ago. I'm sorry, I'm going to mess this up, but you announced that Natasha Volodin, I think it is, is going to be joining you at some point, maybe in about a year or so, as your COO. Can you talk a little bit about what she's going to bring to Newmont and maybe what Rob Ivinson is going to be doing in his new role? Thank you.
spk15: Good morning, Jackie, and it's Natasha Vujon, and maybe the operator feels better trying to pronounce his name. We're part of a well-governed company. I think part of a hallmark of Newmont for many, many years is the work we do to ensure that we continue to develop our internal talent and we continue to strengthen our team by looking for opportunities to bring in external talents. And as I do the work with our board and with my executive team, we're constantly challenging ourselves to where can we continue to strengthen what is already a strong team, ensure that we are positioned to address both the risks and opportunities out in front of us. So over the course of these last 12 months, we have strengthened our general manager team across our 12 managed operations We have the strongest set of general managers in my decade with Newmont. And there's a mixture there of internal promotions and bringing in some external talent. We have strengthened our four, five senior vice president teams. So David Fry coming in to run our projects, one of the best in the industry for project delivery and a future leader of Newmont joined us last year. Four senior vice presidents have come in are all internal appointments and promotions within our organisation. And I would argue we have our strongest operational team in my 10 years at Newmont. We've brought in Aaron Puna, joining us from Anglo-American, who's running Anglo's copper business in Chile, strengthening the leadership of our technical team to be able to take us to our next chapter in Newmont's journey And Natasha's appointment is a continuation of looking to continue to build on what is already a strong theme. The nature of these sorts of appointments is they're long-term. You're looking to understand how you strengthen this business over the long term. So as you saw in the announcement, Natasha could be up to 12 months before she joins us. And there will be a very orderly transition at that time with Rob. And then Rob, after more than four years in the COO role, will then turn his mind to working with me on the next opportunities that we have within our portfolio. So this is about looking at where we want to place our organisation strategically, ensuring we're looking to continually build a strong team, and ensuring that we've got a well-governed, stable team for the long term.
spk02: Thanks.
spk06: And if I could ask a second question, your dividends have been set at a $1,700 gold price. I know you've noted that it looks fairly conservative today, although these things are obviously very volatile. Can you talk a little bit about how you plan to either smooth that dividend or if there's any upside if gold prices stay around current levels through the year? Could we see that dividend range that you mentioned earlier maybe go up or be exceeded by a year end? Thanks.
spk15: Yeah, thanks, Jackie. I think we take a conservative view to gold prices, as I said, and setting it at $1,700, we are in a volatile world. There's a lot of experience that we bring into our consideration at $23,000 based upon how 22 played out and even the couple of years before that. So there are certainly lots of upside risk on gold price as you look into 2023. Equally, there are a lot of factors that present downside risk to gold price as we look into 2023. You only have to go back to late October to see that gold price was sitting down at $16.50. We're enjoying it sitting above $1,800 at the moment. But when we sit here in February, We maintain a fairly sober view as to how 2023 might play out, both in terms of gold price and in terms of inflation, and we're ensuring that we are positioning Newmont to be strong and resilient through what I anticipate will be a volatile year. We've set our range at a $1,700 gold price at $1.40 to $1.80, and the dividend we declared this morning is set at $1.60. So that gives us some opportunity within that range to assess how the year plays out. And I'm confident that every quarter we'll have some good, robust debates with our board around what the appropriate payout is. But we've certainly built a range that allows for some potential upside in gold price to play out through the year. But we'd want to see that play out rather than attempt to predict what gold may do or inflation may do in what I anticipate would be a very volatile year.
spk06: Am I allowed to sneak in one more question?
spk15: Go for it, Jackie.
spk06: Sorry, thank you. So we had dinner together in December in New York, and you talked about growth and meaningful growth at that point and talking about how that would help your relevance or maybe introduce you to some new shareholders or new funds on the generalist side. And so this Newcrest proposal seems like it's very consistent with that. If for whatever reason the combination of Newmont and Newcrest doesn't end up working out, do you look to another growth vehicle, another M&A transaction to achieve that growth? Or what would be your response to your plan going forward if this transaction does not happen?
spk15: Thank you, Jackie. Let me attempt to answer this question by staying away from the comments I made. As we spent most of the call covering, we have the best gold business in the industry by a long shot. We are very comfortable with the foundation that we have and we'll continue to act with discipline both in assessing any opportunities and ensuring that we're running, safely running our business to deliver on our commitments. Part of your first question, when we think about how we continue to strengthen a strong team, we do think about our strategy. We have, Peter Toth's been with us now for six or nine months, supporting me and the board and my executive team and thinking about our strategy. And as part of that work, we have a very clear-eyed understanding of our capabilities as an organisation today in 2023. I think we're an ESG leader. And we believe that we run very large open pit and underground mines very well. We understand our capability. We then look at what are the megatrends impacting the world, our industry and our company. And those megatrends are coming from society and investors. They're coming from technology and they're coming from geopolitical events around the world as we're seeing playing out. So we understand and assess those megatrends and determine what set of capabilities and what sort of organization we need to be 10 years from now, 15 years from now, 20 years from now. And we can do that because we transformed our business back in 2019 with the acquisition of Goldcorp and the establishment of the Nevada Goldmines Joint Venture. From that knowledge and that understanding, we then look to what it means to continue to be the responsible gold leader. We then look to what it means in terms of our gold industry that's subject to those same megatrends that has to consolidate. And then we look to what it means in terms of diversification, particularly as you think about copper. And we have, as I said in my remarks, 16 billion pounds of copper in our organic project pipeline. If we do nothing else, we are diversifying into copper as we shepherd that project pipeline through. So, Jackie, that's the lens with which we look at our organization. That's the lens with which we look to try and bring in talent to ensure we've got a team that can lead this organization for the next 10, 15, 20 years. And that's how we assess our business today, and that's how we assess any external opportunities that may present.
spk06: All right, thanks very much. That's really helpful, Colin. Congrats again on the quarter. Thank you.
spk12: Thanks, Jackie.
spk08: Thank you. The next question comes from Kerry McCreery of Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed.
spk12: Hey, good morning, Tom. Just in your comments on capital allocation, you didn't mention share buyback. So I'm just wondering, is that something you'd still consider as an option, or is the focus really on the dividend going forward?
spk15: Yeah, thanks, Kerry, and good morning. Our primary vehicle for returns to shareholders It's always been since we introduced that dividend framework back in October 2020 to return cash through dividends. That's our primary vehicle. We don't have an approved buyback program at the moment. If you look back at the majority of the share buybacks that we have done over the last two or three years, it's been linked to asset sales. we sold case of gm red lake uh and our sharing uh continental and the britain project in columbia those proceeds were were primarily the vehicles that we use for shared buybacks and that's typically what we do otherwise it ends our primary vehicle you got it and then without trying to ask about new crest i'm just wondering if you can just share more broadly how you think about papua new guinea i know you you know you were in indonesia quite a few years back just any thoughts on
spk12: Papua New Guinea as a mining jurisdiction?
spk15: Again, Kerry, I'll avoid the direct question, but maybe answer a more broad one. When we think about a balanced, diverse portfolio, think about our capabilities. We have demonstrated, if I look at Penasquito in Mexico, look at what Newmont have done going into Penasquito in that first year in 2019. to be able to work with government and communities to address a decade-long issue and then deliver sensational performance out of that operation, beating guidance in three consecutive years since we've had that operation. We have a core capability that's running very large open pit underground mines. We also have a core capability around social responsibility and being able to engage with communities. And in a balanced portfolio that has as a foundation top tier jurisdictions, we can afford to balance some other jurisdictions that wouldn't fit the top tier category. We today, our portfolio today, has us in Ghana, has us in Suriname, we're down in Argentina, we're in Peru, we're exploring in French Guiana. So for us, it's about understanding your core capabilities, understand the foundation of your business, and then ensure you've got a balanced, diverse portfolio that allows you to take some managed risk.
spk02: Great, thanks for that. Thanks, Tom. Thanks, Gary.
spk08: Thank you. The next question comes from Anita Sani of CIBC World Markets. Please proceed.
spk05: Hi, thanks. Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I had a lot to ask about the deal, but I guess I won't be able to, particularly since I cover Newcrest. But let me focus in on the dividend and ask Given the seasonality that you have that you mentioned this year, but the development capex and sustaining capital are relatively flat, could we see that dividend sort of change over the course of the year, quarter to quarter, like maybe hitting the bottom end at the 140 and then perhaps the top, the closer to the higher end at 180 as you progress through the year? Or would you be more inclined to smooth it out? And I guess I'm just trying to understand how you would, what gets you to the 140, what gets you to the 180?
spk15: Thanks, good morning Anita and apologies I can't cover your questions you want to cover, maybe one day. Our dividend is about being stable and predictable over a long term and it is about using the strong balance sheet and the cash that we've generated from high gold prices over time that now sits on our strong balance sheet. So as we have those discussions and debates around the free cash flow that you might generate in any given quarter or the level of investment in any given quarter, we don't look to have a dividend whipsaw quarter to quarter. We look to give our shareholders some ability of confidence and stability in our dividend as we move forward and not have it jumping up and down quarter to quarter. And we will use our balance sheet to support that stability and predictability.
spk05: Okay, so then I guess the second part of that question was basically then, in what instance would you be inclined to use the 140 rather than the 180?
spk15: So thanks, Anita. If you think about the world we're living in and the volatility around gold price and inflation, as best we look at this year conservatively, we think our unit cost is going to be $1,200 and $1,700 gold price. and we've pegged a dividend for the first quarter at $0.40 or $1.60. Now, I've got to preface this by saying our board would have the authority to approve every quarter. So I would then point to those key assumptions, point to our sensitivities that were provided and say, there is a circumstance here where the world could jump to $1,600, costs could go to $1,300. That would be a circumstance where we would then look at, do we need to think about the lower end of our range? Equally, there's the circumstances where costs could be a little bit better than $1,200 and gold could sit stubbornly above $1,800. That would give cause for us to have a discussion with our board around what we might do over the course of this year. And we're making decisions around that range for the 2023 year. We'll come back and revisit it for 2024, much later in this year.
spk05: So the $0.40 you declared for Q4 is probably a good guidepost
spk15: barring barring changes right to what we're looking at is that is that fair to say yeah i think i think we've put a marker out there for you in terms of um as we see here in mid-february 1200 gold 1700 1200 unit costs 1700 gold price 40 cents per share dividend is a good marker for you um i'm going to ask this question
spk05: It relates to the deal or the bid on the table or the indication, but how does the dividend change and evolve given that Newcrest, and I happen to cover Newcrest, is a negative free cash flow, very dramatically. They're in a very heavy capital reinvestment cycle, and how does that impact your... How stable is this dividend post this year if this, you know, given... the offers that are on the table right now.
spk15: Nice try, Anita. I'm sorry. But let me maybe come back and try to answer your question. We spent a lot of time talking about our capital allocation hierarchy and the tension between balance sheet strength, reinvesting in our business at the right level of spend. That's the cash you can afford to do, but also your ability to approach the execution. and ensure that you can have a successful project. And we understand the importance of industry-leading returns for shareholders. So for us, in whatever scenario we're in, it's that triangle of tension between Battle Street strength, reinvestment, leading shareholder returns, and that doesn't change. That's part of what Newmont is.
spk05: Okay, and then one last one. In terms of the capital outlook, you've noted that it doesn't include Yanacocha sulfides in the out years. Just trying to get an understanding, you know, the development capital, we have this conversation every year, but development capital, I mean, when you look at the development capital in 2026 and 2027, it's probably going to come up to the level of 2025 and 2024. You mentioned 2023 is a little higher than normal, but it probably should come up, like we should be using the 2024, 2025 levels as the out years as well. Okay. Thank you.
spk15: Sorry, I'll just clarify that for you. What we try and do is be very, very disciplined with the guidance we provide on development capital, but I'd point you to that long-run average. $800 to $1 billion is what I'd encourage you to use if you're modelling out into the future. And this year and next year are some of the biggest reinvestments we've done since we built Batu back in the early 2000s. So this is an extraordinary period of reinvestment. The long-term average is much more like it.
spk05: Okay, I'll pass it off to someone else. Thank you very much for answering my question.
spk03: Right, thanks, Anita.
spk08: Thank you. Next question comes from Cleve Ruegert with UBS. Please proceed.
spk11: Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks, Tom, Rob, and Brian for all the color. And Tom, you know, well done on managing all the information. I feel like we could spend the next year discussing the slides and everything that's been presented. So I have just a couple of questions. follow-ups. Previously, just on the guidance, you had provided kind of two sets of guidance, one at your base case kind of explaining the assumptions behind that, and then another one with mostly different cost assumptions at kind of the spot scenario. And then that framework was obviously incorporated into the dividend and cascaded down this line. Is the cost I mean, the cost structure that you've presented today, is that the base case or is sort of that base $1 dividend at $1,400 an ounce gold, assuming slightly lower cost basis?
spk15: Yes, thanks, Cleveland. Good morning. Certainly, we've tried to simplify what we provide in terms of our guiding information. And it's taken the lessons we've learned from the that we've all experienced over the last couple of years and really just saying, as best you can predict this year, it's $700, $800 gold and here are our numbers for this year. As you look forward into the out years, we are building mine plans on a $1,400 reserve price and then we will make assumptions around what the gold price will be for revenue and therefore what that means in terms of taxes and royalties and those sorts of things and linked to that is What do we assume for the costs of producing that? So that's all flowing through more on an environment of what we predict the world to be. And we look to consensus numbers to drive that rather than have some sort of arbitrary gold revenue price number. But we build our mine plans on $1,400. And we expect to have, you should expect from Newmont, a $1 a share base dividend year in, year out. It's the variable component that will move year in, year out, depending on what's happening to gold price, what's happening to input costs, and we'll take consideration in terms of what level of investment we've got in the business. Put a $1 a share-based dividend, put it in the bank. That's what Newmont would deliver at a $1,400 gold price.
spk11: All right, but just to clarify, I mean, you've got the sensitivities on the guidance. Is that $1... base case dividend, is that assuming, you know, kind of like $900 cash costs, $850 to $900 cash costs, or is it a lower level?
spk15: The numbers, all the sensitivities you see there are linked to a $1,700 gold price assumption and moving around that. If the price of gold went to $1,400 as a revenue...
spk11: newmont would pay one dollar a share dividend is what the base dividend is yeah yeah all right okay that that makes sense um and then you know i just wanted to follow up emily asked the question earlier but i just wanted to to clarify on the you know on the declining costs the cost declines specifically from 24 to 25 and i appreciate that you've got some you know some volume growth built into the plan and that you know helps with the cost, but there isn't any volume growth really at the midpoint from 24 to 25. So is that mix? Are you trading higher cost volumes for lower cost volumes in the plan between those years?
spk15: That's right. That's where you start to see lower cost ounces come in. The more lower cost ounces come coming into that profile, from the reinvestments, the investments we're making in. You start to see ounces coming in from Tanami, ounces coming in from Mahafo North, ounces coming in from Pebble Viejos, ounces coming in from Cerro Negro. So it's lower cost ounces coming into that production profile.
spk11: Yeah, okay, I just wanted to make sure that was clear. And then, you know, just one last quick one from me. I just wanted to ask an operational question about Boddington. It had a good quarter. There's been some volatility there around weather and around the autonomous fleet, and obviously some learnings with the deployment of that fleet. I guess, are there any risks that you see around the autonomous fleet that you're still monitoring or you know what what's the level of comfort there that um that you've kind of been able to to iron out some of the i guess i guess some of the growing pains and really around the weather and some of the variables that the autonomous fleet might be a little bit more susceptible to yeah thanks cleve uh bulletproof 100 confident in autonomous haulage
spk15: It is reliable, proven. I implemented the first autonomous haul fleet in 2011. This is proven technology. It's just new in the gold industry. This is bulletproof proven technology and the future of mining. And it's safer, fundamentally safer, and you'd be risking a major cost area. So there was some fine-tuning last year, some tight areas of the pit you're mining in that conventional trucks would have had similar issues with. So let me dispel any myth about autonomous haulage. It is proven technology, bulletproof at Bottington. You can expect to see more autonomous fleets open pit and underground across the Newmont business going forward.
spk11: That is very clear. Thanks a lot for taking my questions. I appreciate it.
spk03: Thanks, Clay.
spk08: Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq of Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
spk10: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. There's a sentence in the press release that talks about Yanacocha sulfides and the different options up to and including transitioning Yanacocha operations into full closure. Can you just provide more color on what that would look like and what specifically that would mean for CAPEX? Thanks.
spk15: Yeah, good morning. Morning, Fahad. Certainly, since we made the decision to defer the full funds approval by two years after the second half of 2014, and appointed Dean Garing to Chief Development Officer focused on Peru and Yanacocha. Dean's scope is to look at every option around Yanacocha sulphides, including not proceeding with the project and putting the operation into care and maintenance. And that, as we've talked about before, that is about making sure you go to the edge and understand the art of what might be possible in terms of copper districts of the world. It is a huge sulphide deposit with both gold and copper, and it's right next door to Conga, which is one of the great copper deposits. So strategically, long-term, copper and gold will be produced from this part of the world. But part of Dean's scope is to look at the full spectrum, and that could include us making a decision to move the existing operation into closure. The spend you see in our guidance is reflecting the spend that we would make this year and next year to get to a full funds decision. We continue to the procurement of long lead time items and engineering and the construction of the camp. That camp will be necessary for closure and it will be necessary for closure activities, in particular the construction of a water treatment plant. So those funds will be essential anyway. So if we were to have a scenario that Yanacocha moved into closure, then you would see us building, which we would be doing in any event, water treatment plants to process the mine-affected water that contains acid and to treat that water, to neutralize it and to discharge it into surrounding systems. And that would be our lot at Yanacocha forever. We are at Yanacocha forever. Our closure liability estimates 50 years of water treatment. That's appropriately accounted for in our balance sheet and we would steward that operation into closure if that was the decision that we recommended to our board.
spk10: That's very clear. Thank you.
spk15: Thanks, Vahad. And look, we're here until we've answered all questions. So we'll just keep working through everybody if you're able to stay with us. The people in the queue will answer everybody.
spk08: Thank you. The next question comes from Lawson Winder of Bank of America. Please proceed.
spk00: Thank you, Operator. And good morning, Tom and Rob. Nice quarterly result. And thank you for remaining on the call to fit in these additional questions. I'd like to ask about your thinking around potential non-core assets. And so in the context of when you acquired Gold Corp, you highlighted a few of the assets as potentially non-core. That would need to prove their worth to remain in the portfolio. So in light of some of the impairments, I wanted to get your thoughts on whether any of these assets might now be under consideration for monetization.
spk15: Thanks, Lawson, and good morning. Maybe just a quick bit of colour over some of the impairments which I think you're seeing flow through the mining industry in general, just when you've got the macroeconomic environment, some country discount rates are playing into that. We've got some redistribution, what we assumed for synergy value out of the Gold Corp acquisition and where it came from. As Brian talked about, it's a bit different, so you've got some of that activity going on as we balance some of that out. And we strategically chose... to move CCMV to a leech-only operation and there's some adjustments associated with the strategic decision around CCMV. Any well-run organisation should have a very clear-eyed view on the assets that they manage, where the opportunities are to run them, where the opportunities might be to transform them, where the opportunities might be to grow them and ultimately where there might be a time where those assets are better in someone else's hands. And any well-governed organisation should have a clear view of each of their operating assets and their portfolio as a whole, and ensuring that they are then taking decisions that are in the best interests of the shareholders of that organisation. We do that work. That doesn't mean that we have a whole list of assets set up for divestment, but as similar to the answer I was just giving to Fahad around it is essential as part of that exercise to go to the edge and say, what would the world look like if that asset were divested? And what would happen if that was in someone else's hands? And what does that then mean for us in terms of what we could do with that operation in terms of improving its performance? So we are constantly working through that process, challenging and debating. And with that set of 12 managed operations we have today, we have a very clear idea of the improvement opportunities that we want to get after. In Canada, the borders are really only opened up six or seven months ago. As Rob said, we've got three very experienced general managers now in place across those operations. And Rob and I are focused on delivering the value from those operations that we haven't had full license to do because of not being able to get across the border into Canada having the operations shut down at different times, having COVID protocols in place, 23 is the year where we start to demonstrate what those assets can do. So clear-eyed view, Lawson, about our portfolio. But in terms of 23, we're very much focused on delivering value from our 12 managed operations.
spk00: Okay, fantastic. I'd like to also ask about Ghana sort of, as a jurisdiction, so two of your African-based peers have had some sort of minor tax disputes, but from a Newmont point of view, outside of the requirement to sell gold to the government in SETI, I mean, I've seen nothing similar, perhaps a reflection of your excellent local relationships there. Do you see any signs of fiscal regulatory environment changing in Ghana at all? Thanks.
spk15: Yeah, thanks, Lawson. We've obviously been in Ghana for 20 years. I think we're the largest taxpayer in Ghana, and we pay our taxes in US dollars. So we're a pretty important player in the Ghanaian context, and we have long-term robust relationships with all stakeholders in Ghana, including the government. You've only got to look at the coordinated process that we have been going through to get full land access to Ahapo north, involving the traditional leaders, youth and traditional leaders around the mine site, working with the Asantehini, the king of the Asante, working with several levels of government to productively and sustainably work through that process. Those relationships also apply to when you sit down and talk about how we can support the government to pay fair taxes, but also to support investment in the country and to help manage through that process. So we are very confident of our position in Ghana, the relationships, and our standing to be able to navigate through some of the noise that you read about at the moment.
spk00: Excellent. And if I can maybe ask a very similar question just on Argentina. So I'm thinking about Cerro Nero and the somewhat difficult financial regulatory environment there. Is Newmont currently successful extracting profits from that operation? And that's it for me. Thank you.
spk15: Yeah, thanks, Lawson. The phase that we're in at Serenagro is actually reinvesting back in the business. So as we're generating a profit from a mine, as Rob said, it's getting more and more profitable, we're sinking that money back in to some pretty significant expansion at Serenagro with several underground mines being developed that will, in future years, increase production with lower cost ounces. So at this point in time, we're in a position where that With that profit we're generating, we're putting back into that Cerro Negro business.
spk02: Thanks very much.
spk08: Thank you. The next question comes from Tanya Yakuskanik of Scotiabank. Please proceed.
spk01: Great. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you, operator, for getting my name right. That's great. I just wanted to ask in a different way. It is about the Newcrest offer. I just wanted to confirm, Tom, that you did say that you are in negotiations with Newcrest right now. You've taken their proposal on providing you with the non-public information on a non-exclusive basis. Obviously, they wanted a signature, a non-compete on that. I just wanted to confirm that that's what you said.
spk15: Thanks, Tanya. We haven't been going that long. I think it's still morning in Toronto.
spk01: I've been up very early.
spk15: It's lunchtime. Look, Tanya, the best thing I can do is just repeat what I said. which is we are disappointed that the Newcrest board rejected our proposal and we are currently engaging with the Newcrest team in relation to their offer to provide access to more information. And I better leave it at that in terms of repeating that statement.
spk01: Okay. From a bigger picture then, you talked about Newmont taking pride in their ESG record and ESG focus. So I guess I have a question that does pertain to this deal, but just how do you think about submarine tailings disposal? Is that something that meets your filter for ESG on how you look at that?
spk15: Thank you, Tanya. And again, I'll attempt to answer this question without straying into the specifics. Newmont are actually experts in submarine tailings. We use that technology at Minahasa in Indonesia and at Banda Hijau very successfully. And I was, if you remember, I was the Senior Vice President for Indonesia and accountable for Banda Hijau when it was in Newmont and I kept that accountability going. as I became Senior Vice President for Asia Pacific and then the Chief Operating Officer. So within the Newmont organisation, there is a lot of knowledge and capability around submarine tailors. So if I then answer a question more broadly, as I've said many times before, our radar's turned on. And if we see opportunities to pick up a Tier 1 asset, that we believe is a core capability, whether they be open pit or underground, we will look at that opportunity irrespective of where it is in the world as a first instance. And if an asset had submarine tailings or some other aspect, one of the questions we would ask as we then step through those filters is, is that asset better in the Newmont portfolio or someone else's? And can a sustainable performance be delivered by the Newmont operating model and the Newmont capability. Now, with discipline, many times we might say, no, not prepared to do that, but we wouldn't not have our filter tripped because it had some aspect, such as submarine tails or some other aspect that may be an environmental or social aspect. Again, if I bring it back to Penasquito, we could have looked at Penasquito and said, goodness me, I don't think anyone can resolve the community blockades. That's a big risk for Newmont. we backed ourselves and our capability to go on there and resolve that social issue sustainably. So it wouldn't stop us looking at a particular opportunity because of a particular social environmental issue, but we would reflect upon our capabilities and whether that asset is better in Newmont's portfolio or not.
spk01: Now that's a fair answer. And then just maybe finally for, because I do also cover Newcrest, just maybe on the, you know, any dealings with Australia usually takes a lot in terms of closing a transaction. So hypothetically, if a deal was to occur, could you just review and walk through us what is needed? So obviously shareholder approvals, and then obviously what the timeline would be. Sure.
spk15: Sorry, Tanya, I'm not able to get into that detail because of where we sit. I just say Australia is a jurisdiction. We've been basically in Australia for a few years in the 90s, for almost 60 years. We're a taxpayer in Australia. We've got two big gold mines in Australia. We're exploring in Australia. It's our backyard. So I can't talk about the particular question, but Australia is literally our backyard.
spk01: Okay, fair enough. Thank you very much. And yes, it is still morning.
spk08: Thank you. And our final question comes from the line of Greg Barnes of TD Securities. Please proceed. Yeah.
spk13: Hi, Tom. Sorry to drag this on. On the variable portion of the dividend of the old framework, you paid out 40 to 60% of free cash flow with it. I don't see a mention of that this time around. Is the variable really just at your discretion, or is there a formula behind that?
spk15: Thanks, Greg, and good morning. We can certainly get Daniel to take you through that in detail, but the numbers do add up. So for every $100 increase in gold price above that $1,400 mark, So to do a notch up from 1400 to 1700 is $1.2 billion. But for 23, we've got to take off $400 million of that because of the reinvestment this year. That gives you $800 million and we're returning between 40 and 80% of that amount through that dividend range we're provided. So that ratio still holds with the math and we can certainly jump into the detail with you offline if you'd like to.
spk13: No, that's fine. That works. Thanks, Tom.
spk03: Thanks, Greg. Is that it for questions, Operator?
spk08: Thank you. Yes, this actually concludes the question. Oh, go ahead.
spk15: Sorry to jump across you, Operator. Thank you, everyone, for staying on to answer all the questions and And please have a good day and look forward to, for those investors on the call, look forward to seeing some of you next week at DEMA.
spk08: Thank you, everyone. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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