This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.
spk11: Good morning and welcome to the next year Oilfield Solutions first quarter 2021 conference call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. For opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the conference call over to Kevin MacDonald, Chief Administrative Officer and General Counsel for next year.
spk10: Sir, please go ahead.
spk05: Thank you, Operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Next Tier Oilfield Solutions Earnings Conference call to discuss our first quarter 2021 results. With me today are Robert Grumman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Kenny Pichu, Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, I would like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statements disclaimer contained in the news release that we issued yesterday afternoon which is currently posted in the investor relations section of the company's website. Our call this morning includes statements that speak to the company's expectations, outlook, or predictions of the future, which are considered forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the company's control, which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these statements. We undertake no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements, except as may be required under applicable securities laws. We refer you to next year's disclosures regarding risk factors and forward-looking statements in our annual report on Form 10-K, subsequently filed quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and other Securities and Exchange Commission filings. Our comments today also include non-GAAP financial measures. Additional details and a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure are included in our earnings release for the first quarter of 2021 and with respect to 2019 related non-GAAP financial measures in our earnings release for the first quarter of 2020, each of which are posted in our website. With that, I will turn the call over to Robert Drummond, Chief Executive Officer of NextEar.
spk07: Thank you, Kevin, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. We continue to make good progress with our strategic initiatives around converting our completion fleet to natural gas power in an effort to meet the growing demand in this important part of the market. Our first quarter ended on a strong note exiting March 2021, with our best monthly performance since April of 2020 after recovering from the unexpected and extremely abnormal winter conditions in February and transitioning to new customer activity early in the quarter. We were pleased to onboard five new customers earlier in the quarter and enjoyed steadily efficiency improvements as we exited March. The ongoing results will continue to improve with the additional deployment of newly converted gas powered equipment throughout the rest of 2021. Our decision last year to increase the pace of conversions from diesel engines to lower carbon footprint, natural gas powered tier four pumps is beginning to serve us well as we exit Q1 and as we expected, demand continues to grow as we progress towards half two of 2021. In addition, some of our historical customers are beginning to return to work as we roll further into 2021 and the COVID recovery. The value proposition of our integrated completion solution is well understood by these customers and is meeting ever increasing interest from new customers as we demonstrate the advantages, including improved efficiency of aligned objectives and incentives around fracking, last-mile logistics, wireline pump-down perforating, and the up-and-coming deployment of power solutions, our natural gas fueling solutions. Our new customers are favorably evaluating the cost-effectiveness of this more efficient integrated completion offering and the resulting optimization of well site staffing. I am very pleased with the momentum of this enhanced and differentiated offering, which we expect to be reflected in our results during the back half of Q2 and throughout the rest of the year. Despite this whipsaw activity profile caused by the extended freeze in Q1, which shut down the majority of our fracking wireline Permian basin-centric operations for 10 days, I was very proud of the way our next-tier team rebounded in March, with our best monthly performance since April of 2020. The ongoing deployments of new ESG Pro and ESG Platinum dual fuel integrated fleets are getting off to a great start with high efficiency and steady improvement in the amount of diesel fuel being displaced with cleaner natural gas. I was also particularly proud of our cementing business performance through the extended freeze in the Permian where operations managed to continue without interruption. The momentum of the recovery in our cementing and coiled tubing business has been very positive and is expected to continue. Overall, our extensive footprint in the Permian Basin is a core next-tier strength and the initial focal point of our new power solutions business. This business is on schedule to become commercial in Q3, which will integrate CNG and field gas with our freight fleet to make it even easier for our customers to transition to natural gas power and a more cost-effective lower carbon footprint. There's no wonder that market demand for this technology is growing, especially as diesel prices continue to increase. We are encouraged by our customers' plans as well as a backdrop of improving commodity prices. We anticipate increased activity in the coming quarters and are managing increased customer interest in our core strategic initiatives that emphasize two key priorities, providing integrated service solutions through well site scope expansion and responsible, low cost, low carbon completion operations. These solutions and investments are focused on differentiating our completion services in the part of the market where customers are focused on total cost of operations and maximizing their returns. We plan to generate meaningful returns as the cycle continues to evolve, and I will now provide an update on how we are executing on our core strategies. First, on well site service expansion and integration. Next tier's integrated solutions platforms means that our customers benefit from one safety system, one quality management system, one risk management system, and one cohesive aligned team that is focused on efficiency. The outcome of this, which reflects the value proposition of our integrated offering, is simple. Our approach leads to fewer and better aligned suppliers and personnel on each job and improve financial and website performance for next year and our customers. As noted, we significantly grew our logistics business in the first quarter and into the second. Although the nature of the business carries lower margins than our core completion services, it is accretive to both EBITDA and cash flow, and importantly, with the capacity gain in our latest merger, carries a very low capital cost to deliver. We continue to demonstrate our ability to land commodities at a lower cost while still generating returns, enabled by our AI-driven control tower inside Next Hub. Additionally, the efficiency of our AI-driven logistics operation supports our focus on responsible operations by reducing vessel consumption and the number of vehicles on the road. We are building on this capability even as the market struggles to address the scarcity of truck drivers available to support our sector. We have successfully added capacity to address this dynamic and we are expanding capacity to support our customers with reliable last mile logistics. Our logistics platform enables lower profit cost, lower last mile cost, lower emissions, and the opportunity for drivers to make more money. Our well site integration strategy is also a key enabler to achieving exceptional safety performance. And in fact, our wireline business was proud to receive the 2020 Gold Star Safety Award from the AESC, the Association of Energy Service Companies, recognizing our team for its commitment to ensuring leading safety results in the field. Safety is always a primary focus for next year and reflects our license to operate for our customers. In addition to this exceptional safety performance, integrated fracking wireline remains a critical component of our strategy, as we consistently realize 25% or more improvement in frack efficiencies when integrated as a completions fleet. With this safety and operational performance, We are making gains in the number of integrated completion fleets we have in the marketplace and see further expansion into the future. The emergence in Q3 of our power solutions business providing comprehensive fueling options for our natural gas powered fleets further enhances our unique integrated value proposition. Second, we continue to drive forward on our low cost, low carbon strategy. We would point to several key achievements on this front. First, we continue to deploy Tier IV dual fuel equipment into the market. We see continued demand for lower emissions frac technology, and as planned, we are allocating strategic capital to dual fuel conversions for delivery throughout 2021. And I want to emphasize that this investment converts existing diesel-powered pumps to natural gas as a primary fuel source and does not add additional horsepower to the market. The demand is largely driven by the savings on fueling operations with clean burning natural gas displacing diesel, and this value proposition is further enhanced as the cost of diesel continues to rise. Second, we continue to evolve our workflows around this new equipment to maximize diesel substitution by utilizing our next hub's digital capabilities and proprietary MDT branded frac controls for tuning the pump system to operate in the most efficient manner. We've gone to market with a tiered offering focused on natural gas substitution capabilities, which we've named ESG Pro and ESG Platinum, providing our customers price point options for reducing their well site carbon footprint. Third, Our power solutions business is on track to deliver compressed natural gas in early Q3. We're deploying CNG equipment and processes that improve upon the safety and reliability of existing solutions and includes new proprietary technology that provides the safest and easiest way for customers to use their own field gas. Power solutions will help drive and enable greater natural gas substitutions by our frack fleets optionality on field or CNG gas fueling, and optimize emissions reduction and reporting. These benefits, combined with fewer and fully integrated well site personnel, enabled us to closely align with our customers' objectives. And finally, we successfully tested the NOV Ideal EFRAX system with a key customer and are currently performing additional field tests utilizing multiple power sources. We are field testing alternative electric power solutions to the first generation electric solution of the large single power source turbines currently being used in the market. One of these alternatives that we are currently field testing is a 100% natural gas powered generator that we believe is more reliable, modular, more capital efficient, and we believe has a lower emissions profile. We continue to lead the way in successfully piloting these next-generation technologies and reducing the technical risks associated with a potential transition to alternative power sources for fracturing. We look forward to providing further updates on our next-gen strategy in the near term. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Kenny.
spk06: Thanks, Robert. First quarter revenue totaled $228 million compared to $215 million in the fourth quarter. This marks a sequential increase of 6% as new fleet deployments and growth on our integrated logistics business, as well as in our WCI business, was largely offset by the impacts of severe winter weather in February. Total first quarter adjusted EBITDA was $1 million compared to $8 million in the fourth quarter. Mainly driven by the inclement weather event across our southern region, as well as some choppiness in the schedule as we transitioned to several new customers in the quarter. The impact of the storm was more than double our preliminary estimate, with over two-thirds of our operations offline during a 10-day period. The storm impacted the heart of our operations across our southern region, which includes the Permian, the Eagleford, and the Haynesville. The activity decline resulting from the storm was further compounded by the additional cost associated with headcount and equipment we had in the system from ramping up our operations in response to greater demand building through Q1 and into Q2. We estimate that the total storm impact on adjusted EBITDA was approximately $10 million. In our completion services segment, first quarter revenue totaled $209 million compared to $200 million in the fourth quarter. Completion service segment adjusted gross profit totaled $15 million compared to $24 million in the fourth quarter. During the first quarter, we deployed an average of 18 completion fleets, and when factoring in activity gaps, we operated the equivalent of 15 fully utilized fleets. On a fully utilized basis, an annualized adjusted gross profit per fleet, which includes frac and bundled wireline, totaled $4 million, compared to $6 million per fleet in the fourth quarter, where slightly higher utilization was more than offset by the severe winter weather impact. In our well construction and intervention services segment, revenue totaled $19 million, up approximately 27% compared to $15 million in the fourth quarter. Adjusted gross profit totaled $2 million compared to $1 million in the fourth quarter. The improvement in results in both of our cement and coal tubing business lines is a result of market share growth and focus basins, as well as returning customer activity. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter excludes management adjustments of approximately $4 million, which were primarily non-cash related. Net non-cash adjustments of approximately $5 million were primarily comprised of market-driven facility closure and severance costs, stock compensation expense, and a loss on a financial investment, partially offset by a reduction in estimated accruals from favorable progress on a pre-merger related tax audit. Approximately $1 million of management adjustments were cash related. First quarter, selling, general, and administrative expense totaled $16 million compared to $23.7 million in the fourth quarter, excluding management adjustments adjusted SG&A expense totaled $21 million, effectively flat to prior quarter and reflecting the decrease of 56% versus Q1 of 2020. Turning to the balance sheet, we exited the first quarter with $272 million of cash, relatively flat as compared to the prior quarter. Cash as of the first quarter included the receipt of $34 million associated with the second part of the wealth support services sale consideration, which was partially offset by our ongoing capital investment and our low-cost, low-carbon strategy. Total debt at the end of the first quarter was $355 million, net of debt discounts and deferred financing costs, and excluding finance lease obligations, compared to $336 million in the fourth quarter. Net debt at the end of the first quarter was approximately $63 million. We exited the first quarter with total available liquidity of approximately $353 million, comprised of cash of $272 million and availability of approximately $81 million under our asset-based credit facility. Cash flow used in operations was $23 million during the first quarter, driven by increased use of working capital mainly due to the revenue ramp in March and timing of collections generating higher receivables. Excluding the receipt of $34 million associated with the second part of the well support services sale, cash flow use and investing activities total $14 million. Our investment activities are mostly driven by additional investments in our Tier 4 dual fuel carbon reducing technologies maintenance capex, and investments in our power solutions business, partially offset by proceeds from excess equipment and property sales. This resulted in free cash flow use of $37 million for the first quarter. Turning to our outlook, as we turn to the second quarter, positive factors are at play. First, the significant one-time impacts associated with the winter storm are behind us. While more than two-thirds of our operations were offline for nearly 10 days during February, we successfully returned to pre-storm levels in late February. Second, our customers were up and running. We benefited from continued activity growth in the final weeks of the quarter and now into the second quarter as customers return to work with robust activity and confidence as commodity pricing continues to show some strength. And finally, we see improving calendar utilization in Q2. While calendar gaps remain, we have seen improvement in our ability to utilize our asset base more efficiently. Taken together, we currently expect to have 20 deployed and 18 fully utilized fleets for the second quarter. This activity growth, combined with the factors just mentioned, are expected to drive second quarter sequential revenue growth of at least 25%. Combined with better fixed cost absorption with the higher number of working fleets, and some improved calendar utilization, we expect to deliver second quarter adjusted EBITDA of between $18 and $22 million. We continue to expect total capital expenditures for the first half of 2021 of approximately $60 million, comprised of maintenance capex across our product and service lines, including $3 million per fleet per year for FRAC, as well as strategic investments and additional dual fuel conversions and the continued deployment of our new power solutions business. We have not wavered in our long-time commitment to asset readiness and expect to continue to invest nearly $1 million per month on our fleet readiness program that continues to drive minimal fleet reactivation costs and confidence on redeployment quality and speed. Looking ahead, we are encouraged at what we're seeing in the market as we head into the second half of the year, including an improved commodity price environment and further tightening in the market for natural gas powered fleets, which account for a growing percentage of our asset base. This is exactly what we planned for when we laid out our strategy during the early part of the market response to the impacts from the COVID-19 related shutdown. Our platform provides significant earnings power, including meaningful embedded earnings growth associated with continued utilization improvement. In addition, we continue to see pricing recovery for our services as a potential amplifier to our growth. As noted, we've seen the opportunity for some net pricing increases, recovering a portion of the pricing conceded at the depths of the downturn, but continue to see further pricing upside potential through the rest of the year and into 2022, especially for the natural gas powered equipment, which comprises the majority of our deployed fleet. With that, I'll hand it back to Robert for closing comments.
spk07: Thanks, Kenny. We have provided routine updates on our strategic initiatives as we've continued to build our new company since next year's creation back in Q4 of 2019. I would now like to provide our investors with three key updates. First, we're scheduling a virtual investor event for September the 24th, where we will provide a deep dive into the company and our technology. Please look for a save-the-date invitation soon. Second, on April the 26th, we published our spring 2021 investor presentation, which sets out more details on low-cost, low-carbon strategy that provides a compelling valuation on next year's earning potential. And third, we recently published next year's 2020 corporate responsibility report, providing a deeper look into the importance of responsible operations as a driver for our low-cost, low-carbon strategy These reports are available on the investor relations page on our website. In closing, I would like to reiterate that we continue to reduce our operating costs via our increasing digital capabilities and are beginning the process of recovering pricing conceded during the worst part of the COVID-driven activity downturn. Pricing, particularly in the natural gas-powered portion of the market, will continue to leak upwards as agreements are reset and supply and demand continues to tighten. We expect our lower operating cost and enhanced integrated completion platform will deliver very healthy profit fall-through as price recovers and our margins continue improving over the next two years. Despite the weather-related challenges that we experienced in Q1, we continue to see the activity ramp we anticipated in the Q2, and our Q2 EBITDA exit annual run rate above $80 million is in line with our expectations at this early stage of the market recovery. In addition, we see Q3 EBITDA run rate improving considerably off of this established Q2 base. Based on current visibility, we believe that we will achieve at least $80 million of EBITDA in 2021 and exit the year with double-digit EBITDA margins. This reiterates our previous comments that 2021 is going to be a transition year for U.S. oilfield services, and we believe that we are very well positioned and will have strong momentum as we move into next year. With that, we'd now like to open the lines for Q&A. Operator?
spk10: Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we'll begin the question and answer session.
spk11: To ask a question, you may press star and then one using a touch-tone telephone. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please pick up the handset before pressing the numbers to ensure the best sound quality. Once again, that is star and then one to join the question queue. And our first question today comes from Chase Mulvihill from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.
spk12: Hey, good morning, everybody. Good morning, Chase. Good morning, Robert. So first thing I wanted to talk about was just kind of come back to the pricing conversation. You said you're seeing net pricing, and we've heard that from some of your competitors as well. Maybe if you could just take a moment and talk to, you know, how much pricing actually fell, you know, during the downturn, how much you've been able to get back, and then, you know, is this or the net pricing increases you've seen just don't kind of tier four DGB fleets or are you able to kind of push pricing on some of the conventional fleets too?
spk07: Thanks for the question Chase. You know much of the current you know as you point out pricing was set during the worst part of the COVID shutdowns and you know we have been in with our customers for the long haul from the beginning and you know we believe in long-term partnerships and I would say In general, current bids that we're making in the market today are higher than they were during the COVID period, the worst part of the COVID period. The agreements that we set along the way, they have reopeners, and we work with our customers along the way to recoup inflationary changes and do the most part of that negotiation during the reopeners. You ask how much it dropped. I would say it dropped a lot during the worst part of the middle of last year. And we've only began to recuperate very small amounts. And that's going, we think, give us the ability to change more because there's two or three factors. First, on the supply and demand side, I mean, it's steadily converging because, one, demand is increasing. And so is frac intensity. And it's consuming equipment at a fast pace, I think. And it's been very extremely minimal capex investment in any kind of growth to the market. And I think that those factors, in addition to the fact that we are dealing with now more and more a bifurcated market, bifurcated around fuel source, where natural gas-powered fleets that are representing somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% to 25%, 23% of the total deployed fleets, because the market in general is growing, that percentage is shrinking, and it's relatively sold out. That dynamic for pricing improvement in that arena is much better. In the conventional portion of the market, I'd say that the dynamics there are impacted a lot by small independents that are yet to be sold out with conventional equipment. And that part of the market is much slower to move so far. The bottom line is our customers went through the process to heal their balance sheet in 2021. And we say 2021 is a transition. transitional year so that's kind of what we're saying they're in the process of uh allowing their balance sheet to heal and we expect as we roll into 2022 that's when we'll see most of our opportunities to uh to make a price move and that's given us that in conjunction with the fact that we know what customers we got coming back of our traditional customer base gave us the confidence to be as uh as forthcoming on our guide as we did I hope that answers it. Okay.
spk12: Yep, absolutely. I absolutely appreciate the color. If we could talk a little bit about Somnufrac and, you know, I don't know how much, you know, Somnufrac operations you're doing today. It's obviously a small part of the market. You know, you need four plus wells per pad to really kind of take advantage of Somnufrac. And so I don't know if you can maybe just take a minute, talk about some of the trends that you're seeing out there with Somnufrac and the ability, you know, for next year to be able to handle on the logistics side. and help your customers advance kind of semi-fract penetration.
spk07: Look, I'm glad you asked that question because semi-fract is becoming a more and more important part of our customers' forward thinking. We've been involved with it pretty dramatically from the beginning. And in some basins, it's becoming a bigger and bigger piece of our work, while in some basins, it's yet to be a factor, really. So I would say in the beginning... You know, it was typically lower rates and treating pressures per well. And with that, you know, our ability to have less wear and tear on our equipment was good. And, you know, it was a process that was interesting and more and more attractive to the customer because they're delivering, you know, more footage per frack on a routine basis. the intensity of simulfrac is increasing and it's consuming more and more horsepower. Obviously, we're adapting our pricing models and the enumeration process to that. But the point that I want to make there is that when people say how many fleets are operating in the market, without clarity around how do you count a simulfrac fleet, it becomes less and less clear. And I would say is that this is one of the factors that we think is consuming a lot of the supply in the market where a simulfrac fleet, you've got to count it at what, 1.25 to perhaps even up to two fleet. And inside that arena, execution matters dramatically. You know, you do have less transition time, but, you know, you've got two wireline operations embedded in it. It's good for us in the hope. benefit of our model around integration is amplified when you have that kind of intense operation going on. So my prediction is you're going to see this continue to increase, I think, a little bit. And like you point out, it's only applicable in certain pad configurations, typically pads that are designed to accommodate it. And that process, I think some of our customers are working towards. So we embrace it. We're good at it. I think we were on the early stages of it. It incorporates a pretty good bit of our work today. And, you know, it is intense work, and we tend to excel in that kind of arena. Good question.
spk12: All right. All right. Awesome. I'll turn it back over. Thanks, Robert. War Eagle.
spk07: Thanks.
spk11: And our next question comes from Chris Boy from Wells Fargo. Please go with your question.
spk09: Thanks. Good morning. Thought I'd maybe ask about your tiered offering for kind of ESG type fleets. Curious what kind of appetite you're seeing from customers. Is there a lot of difference between appetite for ESG Pro versus ESG Platinum? You know, just how is it evolving in terms of what people want and how much they care about higher natural gas, sorry, diesel displacement versus lower?
spk07: Chris, good question. Look, it's evolving. I think there are a number of factors involved there. Obviously, the benefits of burning gas, they arbitrage between diesel and natural gas prices as a driver. But it's also around our customers reducing their carbon footprint. And there's a lot of information in the market today about claims about what is the best emission profile equipment. And I think the entire sector is on a learning curve a little bit. And we got a strong opinion. We spent a lot of time studying it. that our customers are getting more and more educated and more and more smart about that process. So I would just say is that we have a good mix between ESG Pro and ESG Platinum. The key thing to think about, though, is that there's a premium associated with both of those packages over what you would pay, a customer would pay, for a diesel conventional fleet. So that's the reason we had multiple entry points for our customers, how we blend the equipment and how we run it to deliver different levels of diesel displacement so they could enter where they wanted to. But I think I would predict that over time, as the market becomes more material about understanding the cost benefits of carbon footprint reduction, that we'll see more and more of a migration toward platinum and the requirement for Tier 4 dual fuel equipment being one of the best and most cost-effective answers. So that's the way I would describe that dynamic. And we're very encouraged about where it's going. And you're going to see us continue to deploy dual fuel fleets throughout 2021. And we've been calling out the investment we're making. And we've been fortunate enough to be able to offset a lot of that investment with a sale of our servicing business that we completed right at the beginning of COVID.
spk09: Thank you for that question. Sure, and maybe for the second one, just about growth in active fleets. Curious if you can describe, you know, how much growth you expect from here. Obviously, throughput is going to be going up, strong revenue growth in the second quarter, just more work per fleet. But what about fleet additions as you go through the back half of the year? And maybe some commentary around which basins you expect to grow the most.
spk07: Yeah, so, you know, it is a basin question somewhat, too. But I want to reiterate that we see 21 unfolding kind of like we expected, and it's going to be a transition year. And what we said in our prepared remarks was that we've been fortunate to onboard new customers during the beginning of this year that are in many ways replacing some of the traditional customers who ramped down activity aggressively in 2020, but all along planning a staged recovery during 2021. So when you ask that question from our perspective, we got visibility on continued additions in the Q2 and the Q3. And it'll be in the neighborhood of a couple per quarter kind of thing, but mostly with our new tier four ESG platinum type offerings. And that's the reason we're guiding so strong for Q2 and Q3 going forward. You know, at the same time, the dynamics around the market in general have continued to improve, and our sales marketing efforts are continuously improving as we've added new talent into that arena so we can get our message out to the entire customer base. But that's what we see 2021. And for us, that evolution is, you know, that gives us the ability to turn cash flow positive into 2022, and ultimately, as we get fully deployed with our ESG strategy and power solutions and everything that we got going to be a leader in free cash flow generation when we get into 2023. Okay, and is most of that growth going to be in the Permian? So back to your point, that's a good question. You asked me about the basins. Yes, a dramatic amount of it is. Our footprint in the Appalachian Basins has been a core of our company for a long time. It's a crowded space, more so even than the Permian, I think, supply and demand. And we're working through that. We've seen some competitors pull out of the region. And we have a long history with a lot of good customers up there. And that's determined a lot by what gas price outlook is. And opinions vary a little bit. But I think we're very proud of that position we have there. But in the visible term, most of that Growth is in Texas. Put it that way. Got it. Thank you.
spk11: Our next question comes from Ian McPherson from Simmons. Please go ahead with your question.
spk00: Thanks. Good morning, Robert. When you talk about your turnover in the customer book and picking up five new customers in Q1, does that make it – easier for next year to prosecute your efforts in expanding your work scope on the well site and selling more integration and all of it. And I wonder if you could speak to how also the change in the customer book is influencing the rollover in your pricing if we've basically seen all the effects of repricing your fleet kind of purge through and the average portfolio pricing should be melting up along with the spot market from here forward?
spk07: Good question. And look, I would say our value proposition is very much driven by the integration aspect. You often hear us call out the efficiency delta between our completion crew being fracking wireline together versus operating independently. And this is statistically ever since the beginning of Keene. And by working together, it's adding 25% on average or above frac efficiency by working the two together. So when you talk about pricing and value proposition, to me, you have to look at it from an integrated perspective to get the full total cost of operation from the operators. So as we bring new customers into our portfolio, They're looking at our historical customer base and the results there to make their decisions about making a move with us. And we're trying to drive the company. We realize that the profitability levels or lack thereof currently are unsustainable and that we have to fix it. Pricing is no question a very important point as we claw it back from the concessions that we made during one of the worst downturns ever. But during that process, we also lowered our costs to operate substantially. And the tools for doing that with digital has changed, so we're locking in the lower costs. We don't have to claw back as much price as we yielded to exceed the same levels of profitability. And then when you add on the other profitability levers that we talk about, and that is integrating our next-gen gas-powered solutions, you know, like Tier 4 dual-fuel vehicles, or perhaps even EFRAC when we move further down the road with the integration of last mile logistics and our coming fueling power solutions, this is when we can start to take advantage of scale more. And then also we put two companies together to be able to address a lot bigger portfolio opportunities than we have currently. If you remember back before COVID struck, We were like 31 fleets and growing at that particular time. So as we add fleets back into the mix, our scale improves and our ability to generate more profitability per fleet will be driven a lot by that as well. So I hope that that addressed most of the question.
spk00: Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, thanks, Robert. I wanted to ask a quick follow-up for you or for Kenny on cash flow for this year. You said that you're really thinking about free cash flow coming into focus for next year. Near term, it looks like your CapEx is going to be heavier in Q2 than it was in Q1, so probably another negative free cash flow quarter. How should we think about the CapEx after the special power solutions CapEx in the first half? Any early read on second half CapEx and a ballpark for free cash flow ranges for the full year?
spk10: Ladies and gentlemen, it appears we may be having some technical difficulties. Please remain patient while we try to reconnect the speaker line. Thank you. And the speaker line has been reconnected. Can you hear us? Yeah.
spk06: Sorry about that, Ian. Look, I was just going through the components of our H1 and our full-year cash flow. And like I was saying, in H2, our investment cadence will increase somewhat. We have our returning customer activity that has high demand on gas-powered fleet, so we're going to continue to invest and tier four DGB. So if you do the math, you know, in 2021, we will, we will have free cashflow use, but you know, 2021 will be an investment here for us. You know, we've been very diligent during the downturn and protecting our cash balance at the end of Q1, we actually have more cash than what we started with, uh, pre COVID. Right. So we've always said that we're going to use our balance sheet to play offense and defense. And with the increasing demand for natural gas powered equipment, we're going to be investing in that in 2021 as well as our power solutions business. But as Robert mentioned, as we go into 2022, pricing dynamics change a bit. We continue with our leading position on our tier four dual fuel. We believe that we can generate meaningful cash flow, free cash flow in 2022 and especially in 2023. Okay. Okay.
spk00: Got it. So the shorthand, CapEx could actually be higher in the second half, the first half, but then as the power solutions, standing that up, completes, then we should look probably more towards maintenance CapEx levels into 22 with rising EBITDA. That's a good way to put it, Ian. Okay. Super.
spk06: Thank you. Thanks, Ian.
spk11: And our next question comes from Steven from Stiefel. Please go ahead with your question.
spk02: Thanks. Good morning, gentlemen. Good morning. Two things for me. When you think about, and I know I'm not asking for guidance for next year or anything, but when you think about the gross profit for fleet numbers, you know, getting back into the mid-teens, 15, 16 years, million range. What will it take to get there? I'm just trying to get back to, I think it was Chase's question earlier about pricing and utilization, but what would be sort of a roadmap to get back to that level of profitability?
spk06: As we mentioned, we have a lot of sight on EBITDA margins to progress through the year and exiting by the end of the year at 10%. On your specific question, if you look at our gross profit per fleet progression, it's going to double in Q2 versus Q1. Obviously, we had some inclement weather impacts in Q1 that we called out, but it's going to double, and it'll be higher than it was in Q4 2020. And then if you look further into Q3, we see that we'll be able to deliver double-digit gross profit per fleet. And from there and beyond, that will be double-digit. So we're going to keep our SG&A flat So any incremental revenue pricing utilization is going to fall through pretty well from an EBITDA standpoint. So just to kind of reiterate what Robert talked about earlier, all the different levers that we have, we're adding utilization, which will help with our leverage. We have our integration around wireline. We have our integration around power solutions and our integrated logistics. And then in addition to that, we have a large and growing tier four DGB fleet that we believe, uh, is going to give us better pricing dynamics as we go through the year and into 2022 and beyond. So like, I think all those things combined, you know, I'm not ready, really ready to commit on timing of that kind of kind of full cycle or mid cycle, uh, GP or EBIT upper fleet, but we are seeing improvement based on the factors that I just described. And we believe that even more acceleration, on EBITDA trajectory as we go into 2022 and 2023.
spk02: Great. Thank you. That's very good color. One other follow-up. I know you have this fleet readiness program in place. When I think about having 20 fleets deployed in the second quarter and looking at your total asset base right now, at what level of fleets deployed do you start to see of material escalation in activation costs? Is it 25? Is it higher than that? I'm just trying to sort of think about where you'd need to put more capital to work to reactivate assets.
spk07: So we talk about spending a million a month on keeping it ready. And you look at the total fleets that we have at our disposal, and you take into account the consumption of horsepower around simulfrac. You know, we can deploy double digit more fleets at the same kind of cost structure as we've been deploying them since the bottom of the downturn. When you get past, say, 30 fleets, then we may have a little bit more. But anything that had substantial cost to redeploy We've cut up. We called out 600,000 horsepower since the merger, and we did that. We would not have done that much if we didn't think U.S. land was going to be different going forward than it was in the past. We're talking our fleet count estimates go into the mid-200s as we get into next year. We think that what we have now, we can deploy very cost-effectively. And that's the reason we believe we've got a lot of pent-up earning potential. Did that address you well?
spk02: Yeah. No, thank you for the call, gentlemen.
spk07: Thank you, sir. Thank you.
spk11: And our next question comes from Wakar Syed from ATB Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
spk01: Thank you for taking my question. First of all, could you maybe talk about your international fleets, how many are currently active, what's embedded in your outlook for Q2, and then for the remainder of the year?
spk07: Yes, thank you for asking that. Our partnership with Nessar has served us well. It has been a case where bringing our our US capabilities and efficiencies into the unconventional arena over there where they have significant volume has made a big difference. We have currently two fleets operating and it's been that way for a number of quarters. And as we look into the rest of this year, we see the potential to begin perhaps to deploy another one around business development opportunities as other countries inside MENA region look to try to do the same thing. But it's also the opportunity for us in the short term for material impact has to be linked to places where they have the volume for us to address on an efficient scale, i.e., they got a lot of inventory of wells. And that's a developing arena in the Middle East. But I would say We're doing, you know, operationally we're very happy. We're very happy with Nessar as a partner. And business development, we're largely driven by Nessar's capabilities, and I would not really be a partner with anybody else when it comes to that. They're very good, and we get a chance to look at a lot of things that way. So I would just say for the rest of this year we kind of see it flat.
spk01: Anything else? Okay. Just one kind of broader kind of philosophical type of question is, you know, if you could help us understand how this cycle may be different from the last cycle. You know, historically what has happened in the industry, pumping industry, is that, you know, off the bottom as activity picks up, slowly profit margins, you know, grow. And only when EBITDA margins or, you know, EBITDA gets into the $10 million to $15 million range, per crew, does the industry start to add capacity? The customer base almost always in the up cycle starts spending up to 120% of the free cash flow. When I look at this cycle, your customer base right now has almost all said that they're going to be at maintenance capital for some period of time. But the pumping industry itself has started to make investments much earlier in the profitability curve that even when margins are still in that low to mid single-digit range. And so I'm struggling to understand why is this optimism about investing so much into capacity or upgrading while customers are still not paid. It's still a competitive market, still a fragmented market. And... And moreover, you know, fees continue to become more and more efficient, so you are artificially, to some extent, adding supply into the market. So help me understand why this kind of industry is starting to invest so much earlier in the cycle.
spk07: Look, that's a good question, and I would answer it like this. I think everybody in our sector kind of understands that the activity profile in general is range-bound a bit more than it was in the past related to your maintenance investment portfolio and operators staying closer to their cash flow and investment profile. The reason we take the strategy that we're taking in investing in converting existing horsepower capacity to natural gas power is because we move from one part of a bifurcated market to another. And the upper end of that bifurcated market is essentially sold out. It is somewhat still pricing lead linked to the total market, but there has not been. Additional capacity added on a scale of any sort. And there's been an eight fleet or two placed and a fleet or two. Uh, I think this is my view of, uh, of tier four kind of equipment added by other, other, uh, competitors in the marketplace. But in general, I think our part of the market has been very disciplined about adding additional horsepower. while simultaneously consuming more of what we already have through things like simulfrac and increased frac intensity. So supply and demand is converging, I think, pretty rapidly. And I think you can't look at the market the way we probably used to as one monolithic supply base when you have this bifurcation aspect. So that's the way. It's a little bit complicated, perhaps, but I would just say is that The investment from next year is inside that upper part of the market that has a growing demand structure.
spk01: Fair enough. My hope was that maybe industry would wait to upgrade and let the customers pay for it rather than proactively doing that. The worry is that it may become the the dual fuel market may become as commoditized as the diesel market was at some point.
spk07: Well, one thing I would say is that we feel like our balance sheet gives us some differentiation on being able to do so at any kind of scale and a competitive advantage being had there. And that, you know, company, our size, I believe has as many dual fuel. We've got as many gas powered fleets deployed as anybody in the market. And it's going to take a number of years, I think, for anybody else to get a scale to be able to do that. So that's us taking care of what we can't control, I believe, and both from the traditional standpoint on the conventional side and the movement into a different tier, you know, on the evolutionary side. But I understand your point. I hope I made a dent in that because that's the reason I think that, you know, It's not one unified move that's going to move the ability to move price. We're going to move price inside that bifurcated market differently.
spk01: Thank you, sir. Thank you very much for your answer.
spk07: Thank you.
spk10: Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one. And our next question comes from John Daniel from Daniel Energy Partners.
spk11: Please go ahead with your question.
spk08: Hey, guys, thanks for squeezing me in. The first one, guys, is on the onboarding of the five new clients. Can you just walk us through maybe what drove their decision? Is it the integrated solution, the tier four engines, performance issues of peers, just any color that you can provide to be helpful?
spk07: Well, John, I think that we're all competing in the market every day. And oftentimes there's a tender process. Price is a big factor, and so is efficiency. And more importantly, probably how you present yourself in the market price-wise is very much linked to what kind of efficiencies you can project into your own models. Our integrated offering is a factor. The percentage of our fleet's that we're supplying our own sand and logistics is as high as it's ever been and on the increase. And I think that's a factor, especially during parts of COVID where the infrastructure was challenged and we were differentiated into better positions, I think largely driven by our abilities inside Next Hub to eliminate the merge and give drivers, for an example, ability to make more money operating with us as opposed to somebody else where they have more wait time and less total hauls per day, for example. So it's, as you would expect, you know, the whole shoot and match. And obviously for us to hold on to those customers, we have to deliver what we said we were going to do. And, you know, that's what we think the readiness program also has differentiated our ability to hit the ground running pretty good with our customers. Not error-free. but much better, I think, than the average.
spk08: All right, fair enough. I've got a housekeeping question, sort of a follow on to Chase's, but with the rise in simulfrac activity, if you've got a crew out doing a simulfrac, do you count that as one crew or do you count that as two for disclosure purposes?
spk07: John, that's a good point, and we're trying to decide what to do. It's been an evolutionary. Before, in the beginning, I would have said, 1.25 was the number it ought to be. Historically, we've been counting them as one. And I would say more likely it's more like a one and a half, you know, kind of on average. So I would just say we all ought to look at that to determine. But certainly I think the counts, like you and I talk about being around 200, is counting most of them as one.
spk08: That's what I do. Okay. Fair enough. All right. Now I'm going to ask you a question. You might think it's the dumbest question of the day. because I know you just gave guidance. It's going up, and that's good. The pricing's going up. But are the volume of inquiries for new work as robust as they were two to three months ago? Can you just characterize the inbound calls from customers for work?
spk07: You know, I'd put it this way. As I reiterate a little bit what I already said about our, you know, perspective around the customers that we're very familiar with, We already kind of knew what their plans were going to be and when they were going to be layered into the future deployments in 21. But the bid level, and we get to look at it, I think, you know, nearly everything. And I would say that it's on the slight uptick, a steady uptick. But I would also say that sometimes that is the customer fishing, I think, about what price looks like, what's going on in price and haven't yet exactly decided when they might deploy a fleet. So, you know, I think that's a dynamic that's difficult to nail down. But we're excited, frankly, about the volume of opportunity, and obviously we run a pipeline and we try to handicap that, and that pipeline is very healthy.
spk08: Okay, good. Hey, I appreciate all the time and color you guys gave today.
spk07: Hey, thank you, John. Thank you. Operator, I think that's the last question we can take. But, you know, before we close, I just wanted to say one thing was that to the analyst, I appreciate there's been a lot of turnover in the group, and you guys have got a large volume of activity to cover. We appreciate your interest in our company. And I really want to thank all the next year employees. for their dedication to our customers and our company and the collective safety that we demonstrated throughout all the turmoil that's been happening, everything from the Texas freeze to COVID before that. So thanks for participating in today's conference.
spk10: Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call. We do thank you for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.
Disclaimer