Nomura Holdings Inc ADR American Depositary Shares

Good day everyone and welcome to today's Nomura Holdings first quarter operating results for fiscal year ending March 2020 for conference call. Please be reminded that today's conference call is being recorded at the request of the hosting company. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this point in time. During the presentation, All the telephone lines are placed for listen-only mode. The question and answer sessions will be held after the presentation. Please note that this telephone conference contains certain forward-looking statements and other projected results, which involve known and unknown risks, delays, uncertainties, and other factors not under the company's control, which may cause actual results, performance, or achievements of the company to be materially different from the results, performance, or other expectations implied by those projections. Such factors include economic and market conditions, political events and investor sentiment, liquidity of secondary markets, level and volatility of interest rates, currency exchange rates, security valuations, competitive conditions and size, number and timing of transactions. With that, we would like to begin the conference. Mr. Takumi Kitamura, Chief Financial Officer, please go ahead.

Good evening, this is Takumi Kitamura, CFO of Nomura Holdings. I will now give you an overview of our financial results for the first quarter of the year ending March 2024. Please turn to page 2 of the document. Groupwide net revenue was 348.9 billion, up 7% quarter-on-quarter. Pre-tax income increased 104% to 46.3 billion. Net income was 23.3 billion yen, 3.2 times higher than the previous quarter. EPS was 7.4 yen, and annualized ROE was 2.9%. During the first half of the quarter, international market participants sat on the sidelines due to the bankruptcies of U.S. regional banks and the debt ceiling issue. Concerns of systemic risk dissipated in the second half of the quarter, and the fast pace of rate hikes in the U.S. that started over a year ago began to show signs of changing. In Japan, the move towards ending deflation and speculation over the changes to the BOJ monetary policy, combined with expectations of structural reforms to boost profitability at Japanese corporates, led to inflows of risk capital from abroad, lifting the Nikkei average to a 33-year high and bringing some bright news for the first time in a while. Amid this environment, as you can see on the lower right, three-segment income before income taxes increased 140% quarter-on-quarter to $28.7 billion. Our Japan-related businesses had a strong quarter, particularly our retail business. Now let's turn to the performance of each business. Please turn to page 5 for an overview of retail results. All the percentages quoted hereinafter are quarter-of-quarter comparisons. RetailNet Revenue increased 22% to $92.1 billion, and income before income taxes increased 133% to $22.9 billion. Since 2019, retail has been reforming its channels by allocating sales staff in line with the characteristics of clients. With a segment-based business strategy and expanded product and service offering, in March, we completed our reorganization with a major reshuffle of our people to better meet the needs of our clients. Under this optimized organizational structure, we provided detailed consulting services resulting in a stronger sales across all products and services and higher revenues. As shown on the bottom left, recurring revenue increased 2% to $34.2 billion, while bonus provisions increased in line with higher revenues. We stringently controlled non-personal expenses and maintained a recurring revenue cost coverage ratio of 50%. Flow revenue was $57.8 billion, an increase of 38% driven by significantly stronger sales of stocks and investment trusts. Please turn to page 6 for an overview of sales by product. Total sales for the quarter reached $5.4 trillion, up 21%. Of this, $2.8 trillion was sales of stocks. We saw the results of our efforts from last year to promote the attractiveness of investing in Japanese stocks, and a tailwind from the market rally from May led to a significant increase in sales of Japanese secondary stocks. Sales of investment trusts increased. 56% to 600 billion, with inflows into Japan and global stockpiles as shown on the bottom right. Please turn to page 7 for an update on KPIs. Net inflows of recurring revenue assets was negative 71.4 billion as some corporate clients sold out, excluding the corporate clients section which is affected by these large transactions. Net inflows were 10 billion yen. As shown on the right, recurring revenue assets reached a record high of $20.3 trillion, supported by the market rally. The bottom left shows flow business client numbers up 10% year-on-year at $896,000, mainly due to improved market segment and the reorganization of our people to provide services to inactive clients. Please turn to page 8 for an overview of investment management results. Net revenue declined 30% to $26.5 billion. Income before income taxes dropped 78% to $3.6 billion. As shown on the bottom left, investment loss was $6 billion, while private equity from Nomura Capital Partners booked unrealized gains. We posted unrealized losses related to investment in American Century Investments. However, business revenue grew 13% to $32.5 billion. The asset management business continued to deliver stable revenues and performance in our aircraft leasing business group. Please turn to page 9. As you can see on the top left Assets under management at the end of June were a record 76.1 trillion, which is higher than our March 2025 target of 75.8 trillion. Of course, market factors had a big part to play in this, but net inflows were 1.7 trillion, marking the highest level in 31 quarters since the second quarter of the year ended March 2016. Net inflows on the bottom left show the investment trust business posting inflows of $650 billion. MRF assets under management increased by $730 billion on inflows of idle funds created due to profit-taking, while Japan's stock-related ETFs booked net inflows of $40 billion. Main investment trusts excluding MRFs and ETFs reported outflows of $120 billion. Sales of U.S. and Japan stock funds continued, but we saw upflows from the Reopen Japan fund, with early redemptions planned due to rise in net asset value and from foreign bond funds. The Investment Advisory and International Businesses booked inflows of 1 trillion. In Japan, we won mandates for yen bond and global stock funds, while internationally inflows were driven by high-yield bond funds. As you can see on the bottom right, Alternative asset under management exceeded 1.5 trillion.

Please turn to page 10 for an update on our wholesale business. Net revenue increased 7% to 190.9 billion yen, and income before income taxes was 2.1 billion yen, improving from a loss last quarter. The graph on the bottom right shows Japan revenues of 69.2 billion yen, representing the strongest quarter since the third quarter of the year ended March 2016. Internationally, while the Americas improved from the previous tough two quarters, overall it was a challenging quarter as market participants remained on the sidelines in the first half of the quarter due to macroenvironment uncertainty. Please turn to page 11 for an overview of performance by business line. First, global markets. Net revenue increased 7% to 160.4 billion yen. Fixed income revenue was 97.4 billion yen, up 11%. Spread products made a significant contribution to revenues. In credit, the interest rate differential between Japan and overseas drove a strong increase in revenues from foreign-denominated bonds in Japan, while international regions also reported higher revenues. due to credit spread tightening and strong client activity. Macro product performance was roughly unchanged from last quarter. FXEM slowed in AEJ on lower volatility and slower client activity, while rates improved in the Americas and continued to perform well in Japan. Equities revenues increased 2% to 63 billion yen, although international client activity was slowed. Our Japan equity-related business continued to see inflows from outside Japan, and both cash equities and derivatives booked revenue growth. Please turn to page 12 for investment banking. Net revenue increased 3% to 30.5 billion yen. Despite ongoing declines in global fee pools, our advisory business booked stronger revenues on contributions from completed M&A deals in 2018. EMEA in focus sectors such as consumers and retail and healthcare. As shown on the right, we supported multiple sustainability-related transactions. In our financing and solutions business, ECM and DCM both slowed, but this was offset by our solutions and ALF businesses, resulting in flat revenues quarter on quarter. Please turn to page 13 for an overall overview of expenses. Group-wide non-interest expenses were roughly unchanged from last quarter at 302.6 billion yen. Excluding the impact of yen depreciation, expenses actually declined slightly from last quarter. Compensation and benefits was up 2% at 158.7 billion yen due to yen depreciation and a rise in base pay in our international business. Other expenses declined 7% mainly due to lower professional fees. Lastly, please look at page 14 for our financial position. The table on the bottom left shows tier 1 capital of 3.3 trillion yen up about 140 billion yen from the end of March. Risk-weighted asset increased by 570 billion yen from the end of March to 17.9 trillion yen. As a result, our CET1 capital ratio at the end of June was 16.5%. The waterfall chart on the bottom right shows changes to risk-weighted asset credit risk increased by 500 billion yen mainly due to yen depreciation. While market risk was also impacted by yen depreciation, the increase was limited to around 70 billion yen as we managed risk prudently amid the uncertain market environment. That concludes the data overview of our first quarter results. To sum up, we saw results from our ongoing initiatives this quarter and a tailwind from the Japan market rally helped improve performance both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Retail completed its reorganization to better understand and client needs and was able to deepen its business across both interpersonal and non-face-to-face channels while also expanding its client base. Investment management delivered a broad range of products across both public and private markets to global investors, resulting in inflows that helped lift assets under management to a record high. Wholesale had a challenging quarter as volatility in international markets dropped and market participants were in risk-off mode. However, we saw some bright spots in our Japan-related businesses. We believe the momentum in the JGB and Japan stock markets will continue on the back of adjustments to Bank of Japan monetary policy, corporate actions by Japanese companies to improve profitability and capital efficiency, and a new NISA scheme due to be significantly expanded next year. Our retail business has remained solid in July, performing above the monthly average of the first quarter. In wholesale, our international business got off to a slow start, but fixed income and equities in Japan are doing well, and ECM deals and investment banking are showing signs of improving. We are having very active dialogue with clients and will continue to work to deliver the best solutions leveraging the full capabilities of the group. We are also making progress on the 50 billion yen cost reduction program announced at our investor day. We have already identified about 60% of the total to be implemented by March 2024 and we expect to see the full benefits of the cost reduction to start appearing next fiscal year. uncertainties remain in the international environment, we will continue to manage risk prudently and ensure stringent cost control while focusing on expanding our earnings. Thank you.

We have a question and answer session now. If you have a question, press sharp seven. If you want to cancel a question, press sharp seven.

The first question is by SMBC Morgan Stanley Securities, Tsujino-san. Tsujino-san, please go ahead. Mitsubishi UFC Morgan Stanley Securities, Tsujino is my name. I have two questions. First of all, yen depreciation and the base salary going up. From the third quarter and fourth quarter last year, you've been reducing headcount. And with surveillance, you were talking about slight decline. But on Q1Q, there has been a positive change rather than a negative decline. And I was surprised. In U.S. banking sector, cost... went up. So can you elaborate more on personal expenses? So that's my first point. Secondly, ACI, if we do the calculation in investment of the 13 billion unrealized losses, that's probably the mark-to-market losses. Was it in Q3 or Q2 last year? Positive 15 billion was booked. So I was thinking that this unrealized loss is, or that was too big, and now it's down. What can we imagine from the AUM level? Multiple changing, and how can we observed from the share prices, the facts announced is deviating our assumptions. So I'm uncomfortable about these results. Can you explain what's behind these results? Thank you for the question. First of all, on personal expenses, there are several factors behind. And as you have pointed out, yen depreciation is quite a significant factor, and also base salary. Inflation overseas has progressed, and in Japan as well, there has been an elevated level of salary, so that has been the factor that had pushed up personal expenses. What else? In retail... We have seen recovery in the performance, so the bonus provisions increased. That reflected the results of the quarter that has just ended. So those were some of the factors behind. On Q-on-Q basis, it didn't decline. It rather increased as it appears. In terms of ACI, that's your concern, Sujino-san, and you're quite right. Regarding ACI, we have been saying that we are hedging our investments. This is a specific name, unlisted stock, and there's the difficulty of hedging, and we are feeling that difficulty in our results. There are a few parameters that are applied for the valuation of ACI. And by using those parameters, we are engaged in hedging activities. But for this particular quarter, we saw some hedging error or mismatch. Valuation of ACI in itself wasn't that bad. Rather, there was losses caused by the hedging error. So your points are very correct, and it's difficult to see what's ongoing just by looking at the numbers by appearance. I understand that well. So we will think about how more effectively we can engage in hedging activities. Sorry about the uncertainties, but these are some of the background factors. Right. In order to make it neutral, you were hedging, and when market values go up, you were in the position to book losses, so there would be gains when market goes down. But all of those trends were against Nomura, but underlying valuation remained more or less unchanged. In fact... share prices may remain flat, more or less, right? Is that the right analysis? Well, I can't make any comment on specific names, but ACI's valuation in itself didn't fluctuate so significantly. And In terms of ACI valuation, if there is gain, we offset that by taking hedging position. And when ACI goes down, hedging gain should have been enjoyed. But unfortunately, due to some of the specific stocks, we were not able to do that in the first quarter. Thank you very much.

The next person asking the question is SMBC Nikko Securities, Muraki-san. Muraki-san, please go ahead. I'm Muraki from SMBC Nikko. Firstly, I have a question about wholesale, this time under this environment. 2.9% of ROE is what was achieved, but page 21, you see the geographical split profit and loss And ACI, even without ACI hedging, America is in loss. Anemia is making loss as well. So those are suppressing, holding down the entire profit. But regarding these, already you've made an announcement or disclosure, but compared with the Japanese-American peers that have already made announcements, What are the differences and what's the factor behind ROE level? And at Investor Day, you talked about the assumptions, but has there been deviation from your assumptions? And if you are considering some additional actions, I would like you to explain. At Investor Day, a headcount will be increased by 5% over a two-year period, but based upon the current financial performance, Is the increase in headcount the right way to go? Is that the way to think about it? Thank you. And the second question is about retail. Due to personnel transfer in April, channel reformation, I believe, has been completed. But in the April through June quarter, how do we evaluate the net increase in the revenue and assets? What I want to ask about is the timing immediately after the transfer of personnel. So April may not have been the timing when you could make a strong start, but what about that situation from April through July? So what was the extent to which the channel reformation has taken root? Thank you, Muraki-san, for your questions. Firstly, regarding wholesale our global markets in America we have rates business but our core business is agency mortgage which belongs to rates business and also securitized products and equity derivatives those are core businesses of ours and as you know The USA had a path-based rate hike in our core product, agency mortgage last year, and securitized products struggled, and the struggle has continued into this year. That seems to be the biggest factor for other business lines, excluding agency mortgage or rates. For other business lines, all in all, the situation is solid. Also in America, it is not that we do not have credit business, but our credit business is small in America. And in America, compared to our peers, our numbers of performance seem lackluster. But as you know, the rate hikes in the USA seem to be nearing the peak. So at the turning point, including agency and the long-term bond business may start to recover. If that happens, then America's business overall will be lifted significantly. And that is our expectation and hope. But recently, our businesses are not performing to the best of their potentials. And the overall revenue... is not sufficient. That's what we believe. But in both in EMEA and Americas, the tightening cycle seems to be coming closer to the exit. That's our view as well. So investors' risk appetite is expected to improve gradually. But at what timing, I cannot pinpoint precisely at what point. But this situation, I do not think will continue forever. But at some point, the situation will change. So when the market comes back, we would like to be in a position to monetize the opportunities. As for agency mortgage, I believe we are at the bottom. So the only direction that's remaining is the upside. As for the headcount expansion, Needless to say, including replacement, some producers are being hired. But naturally, the increase or decrease of headcount is prudently controlled by paying attention to the revenue level. As I mentioned as we announced the financial results, Looking at the performance of the year, business side and wholesale side, headcount restructuring has been undertaken. At the investor day, we said we are expanding headcount, but we will not be randomly increasing headcount. But GM, unlike investment banking, has shorted advance investment period, so including replacement, the higher talents will start contributing to revenue early on. That is my answer to your first question. Regarding your second question, our evaluation of revenue and the net increase in assets, at retail division, The revenue and bottom line, when we look at that, of course, there has been tailwind from markets, but there are non-P&L numbers. Looking at such numbers, the impact of personnel reshuffling or restructuring seem to have materialized, but not all impact has come to materialize yet. For example, in the area of high net worth, We have allocated and deployed our partners, but the flow revenue from clients that are being covered by our partners, that has grown about 50% on a queue-on-queue basis. But from customers that our partners have not contacted yet, queue-on-queue progress has been negative. So touch points with clients are expected funded with increase in headcounts, but still we have not been able to contact all clients. So if we can broaden our partner base, then we will start to see the benefit in the sense of revenue and assets. So in April, we put in place the new structure, so I am expecting the result to come out. The newly appointed about 1,600 partners who've been deployed to the area of high net worth. So they've gone through OJT and to gain knowledge up until the end of May. And they've been attending to relation building with clients. And it's after the mid-May when we started seeing increase in stock price. So I believe we started seeing the benefit of reshuffling of personnel in the latter half of the second half, so we will be accelerating our initiative from here. Thank you very much, Mr. Kitamura. So you mentioned at the end, but if I may ask, 1,800 partners who were appointed to the mass affluent, that number came down to 200, so drastically reduced. What was the impact from that reduction? I believe you've assumed the impact, but compared with your assumption, is the impact in line with your assumption? Thank you for the question. So more or less, we've intentionally made the decision of not assigning that many number of headcounts, but looking at the revenue, of course, partially due to market factors, revenue has not declined much. So, compared with our initial assumption, the negative, we have not observed much of negative impact. Okay, understood. Thank you very much.

The next Question will be by Watanabe-san of Daiwa Securities. Please go ahead. Watanabe of Daiwa Securities. I have two questions. First of all, Phase 11 on the document, fixed income. This overlaps with your presentation, but when we look at the year-on-year, it seems that there has been a decline, drop in macro products. And can you give us the monthly trend of April, May, and June? Second question, on capital policy, what's the progress in terms of buyback? You haven't bought back up to April. Why not? And also, when you think about second half dividend, ACI unrealized loss of $13 billion, is there the possibility of adjustment excluding this unrealized loss? Thank you. First of all, to respond to your first question, macro product drop, rates business in itself is not performing so poorly, but FXEM, which was at the peak last year, dropped slightly in the quarter that had just ended. Our core business, Asia FXEM, That's our core product line. And clients' activity in this segment dropped significantly and also position management. In comparison to the previous quarter, there was a drop. So on year-on-year, this was the major factor behind the drop in macro products. Fixed income monthly trend in April, May, and June 30%, close to 30% in April, close to 30% in May, and 40%, mid-40% in June. So month after month, the situation improved. Thank you. Did you mention equity, Watanabe-san? No, no, I just mentioned fixed. Right. And buyback. Buyback. was your second question. From the long-term perspective, we will be buying back our shares. That's the plan. When and how we buy back, we will refrain from making any specific comments. But as you look at the track record, you will understand that although the amount was not so significant, that we will be buying back up to the line we have announced. And also the relationship between dividend policy and ACI unrealized loss, we're still at the timing of first quarter just ending. It will depend on how the situation fares in Q2. various factors will be taken into consideration. Not only ACI, but various factors will be studied as we decide on the dividend. And after the completion of the second quarter, we will study the situation. Thank you. Thank you very much. I have a follow-up on question one. In the presentation wholesale after July, you said that the start of the new quarter was slow overseas. In comparison to April to June quarter, It is slow, or on average is it slow? Can you give us more details? It's doing better than April and May. I have this feeling that the level of July was at par with the first quarter. Thank you very much. That was great information. Thank you.

Now we move to the next question. As we couldn't confirm your affiliation, please state your company name and your name after hearing a muted announcement. Now unmuted. Thank you.

Oscar from SBI Securities. Can you hear me? Yes. Thank you very much. Page 11. Sorry, maybe could you give an answer to my question one by one? So I'm looking at the global market number on page 11. In equities, in the first quarter, I'd like you to walk me through the equities. I do understand the situation for fixed income, but on a Q-on-Q basis, 2% increase in revenue is achieved. But for Japan, the highest level after the economic bubble, other securities firms are enjoying this situation. Then based upon that situation, your number does not seem so strong, though your focus products are different and accounting treatments would be different, but 34% increase Q on Q in the case of Daiwa and EMEA and America's must have been weak in your case. So could you give me some concrete information? That's my first question. Thank you very much. Regarding equities, as you pointed out, the interest in attention to Japanese equities is very strong, so is execution and derivatives equity products. Regarding Japan, those business lines were strong. On the other hand, America's derivatives, relatively speaking, I believe the performance was solid, but U.S. securities volume itself has come down, so the execution business struggled. In executions of U.S. securities, especially without business, how should I put it, not just revenue, but there is cost involved. So just because revenue grew, it does not mean that significant bottom-line profit remains. That's not the nature of that business. Looking at the... Revenue, it's not so strong, but when we look at the bottom line, not much difference there. Okay. Then that means other than Japan, other regions kind of dragged down the average. When we look at just revenue, yes, numbers looked weak, but at the profit line, other regions did not drag down the average. Thank you. My second question is a simple question just to confirm my understanding. Last week, BOJ's policy meeting resulted in a change in their policy. But for Japan's fixed income, is it tailwind? That's my second question. Thank you. Thank you for the question. Whether the impact is positive or negative, my straight answer is it is positive. The Bank of Japan has been quite prudent in their communication. That's my impression. For the time being, based upon the real economy, interest rates will change, so the new point of balance seems to be pursued by BOJ. But from the viewpoint of investors, the last few years, the large-sized loosening policy has been continued, but finally it seems to come to the end. That seems to be the view of investors. As a result, certain volatility is produced and client activities will recover. That's our view. In our JGB market, our share is quite high, so we will be careful about risk management, but business opportunities, I believe, will be a tailwind for us. Understood. Thank you very much.

Next question is by City Group Securities Niwa-san, please go ahead. This is Niwa of Citi. Can you hear my voice? Yes, we are receiving your voice. Thank you very much. I have two questions. Retail and capital policy. I'm looking at page five. I have two questions. How do you evaluate the recurring revenue In comparison to mid-term plan, frankly speaking, I don't think you've been able to get a good start. How do you foresee the rest of the year? And then secondly, on flow revenue, have there been any changes to the investment appetite of clients, the product range or method of investment? There were many contrarian clients in the past. Have they disappeared? So in the flow revenue, has there been any change to your client attributes? Secondly, capital policy, there could be some update of U.S. capital policy, but is there going to be any impact? to your group capital policy. Thank you very much. On retail's recurring revenue, how do we perceive the level? Against the target of 70%, you said that our performance was slightly lower, but we are not so deeply worried, to be frank. If you look at the most recent market rally, it was quite sudden. So investors sold for profit-taking. So in terms of net increase, yes, there was certain slowness. However, as we take the approach of getting all of the assets from the clients, there would be transaction basis and also investment trust sales to our clients. And as a result, recurring revenue is expected to grow through our continued and sustained efforts. On the other hand, we will be reducing costs, so recurring revenue sales expense coverage ratio will be increasing through our efforts. On the flow side, have there been any changes in our client portfolio? Day in, day out, we are checking the changes to clientele, but clients who buy at the dip There are many such clients, and then they would sell to take profit when the prices go up. So, yes, that's the main trend. But as the market rallies, similar actions will be taken. But in the long term, there could be clients buying when prices go up, do you call them contrarians? It's quite difficult. When share prices go down, stock prices go down, yes, they purchase, but when the stock prices continue to go up, we saw some clients purchase at higher prices. So in comparison to historical client sentiments, I think They have become more active. I think we are close to a major turning point in Japanese economy. Wage increase was achieved for the first time in several years, which was bright news. And end of deflation is much talked about. So if we compare where we are, In comparison to a decade or two ago in terms of Japanese economy, there has been much change. So we are seeing many clients that are interested in investing more. So that is my response to the first question. Secondly, the capital restrictions in U.S. End of July, yes, there was information that that will kick in. if i'd be fb i c and o c c the supervised bank and also capital or assets of one hundred billion dollars or higher bank and banking groups will be subjected to such restrictions at the moment numerous america and they said that there are several basically operating united the FRB, FDIC. Our entities are not subject to these regulatory bodies, so there will be no direct impact coming in from such regulatory activities, but we will need to analyze more details in the coming weeks. Credit risk calculation methodology may be under review, so there could be or there could not be indirect impact. We will be vigilant and analyze to see whether or not there would be indirect impact. Sorry, I do understand that I'm not straightforwardly answering your question, but we have not been able to estimate any indirect impacts. Thank you. Thank you very much. I'm looking forward because retail investors are quite risk appetite now. Thank you.

If you have a question, press sharp seven. If you have a question, press sharp seven. As there is no more questions, we would like to finish question and answer sessions. Now we would like to make the closing address by Nomura Holdings.

Thank you very much. Thank you very much for attending. At the retail division, for the first time in a while, and since the December quarter of 2020, we've achieved a good number but there are still things that we have not been able to accomplish, but our initiatives, I believe, are starting to bear fruit. On the other hand, for wholesale, the bottom line profit is not remaining much, so that's a huge issue and challenge. But looking at top line, toward June, agency mortgage and FXEM in those areas, we are seeing the sign of recovery. In July, due to seasonal factors, the pace has slowed down once again. But as I answered earlier, this situation will not persist because what we see now is seasonal factors. So activities will come back at some point. And at that time, we would like to drive our top line On the other hand, we face various issues related to cost structure. It's not unique to wholesale. In retail, we are working on various activities. At retail division, revenue grew by 22% while suppressing cost increase by 6%. So that's the tangible result of our initiative. And these initiatives could be implemented at wholesale as well to reduce cost-income ratio. That is our immediate challenge to address. So we will continue our efforts. So thank you for your continued support. Thank you once again for your attendance today.

Thank you for taking your time. And that concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines. The host has placed this conference on hold.