8/6/2021

speaker
Tipoosh Barry
Head of Investor Relations

Hello and welcome to the Nomad Foods second quarter 2021 earnings call. I'm Tipoosh Barry, head of investor relations, and I am joined on the call by Stefan Descheemaeker, our CEO, and Sami Zaykowt, our CFO. On our call today, we will review our financial results for the quarter and conclude with a question and answer session. For those planning to ask a question, we ask that you do so using the Zoom raise hand feature. Before beginning, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer on slide two of our presentation. This conference call may make forward-looking statements that are based on our view of the company's prospects, expectations, and intentions at this time, including consideration related to the impacts of COVID-19. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties which are discussed in our press release, our filings with the FCC, and this slide in our investor presentation, which includes cautionary language. We will also discuss the non-IFRS financial measures during the call today. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with IFRS results. Users can find the IFRS to non-IFRS reconciliations within our earnings release and the dependencies at the end of the slide presentation available on our website. Please note that certain financial information within this presentation represents adjusted figures for 2020 and 2021. All adjusted figures have been adjusted for exceptional items, acquisition-related share-based payment, and related expenses, as well as non-cash foreign exchange gains or losses. All comments from here on will refer to these adjusted numbers. And with that, I will hand the call over to Stefan.

speaker
Stefan Descheemaeker
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Tapush, and thank you all for joining us on the call today. Earlier today, we reported our second quarter 2021 results, which marked the highest second quarter adjusted EPS in our company's history, despite the anniversary of our most difficult comparison of the year. The power and resilience of our value creation model was evident during the quarter as contributions from M&A, share repurchases, and margin expansion more than offset an expected organic revenue decline. Based on our year-to-date performance and our plans for the second half, we remain confident in achieving our 2021 full-year guidance, which calls for another year of organic revenue growth and double-digit adjusted EPS growth. Further, with the pending acquisition of Portanovax Frozen Business, we expect a 2021 adjusted EPS base of over $2 per share on a combined and annualized basis. This will create a higher new baseline from which we expect to grow in the coming years. With that, let's jump to the details of Q2, beginning with the highlights on slide 3. Total revenues were down slightly as an expected decline in organic revenue was offset by contribution from deposition of Finland's future lands and favorable forex translation. On a two-year basis compared to 2019, Total revenues grew at a cager of 5% and all Gragnick revenues grew at a cager of 4%. Adjusted gross margins expanded 50 basis points or 90 basis points on a like-for-like basis when excluding the effect of Finland Switzerland whose initial gross margins are below those of our base business. We are pleased with these results as we continue to navigate A dynamic inflationary backdrop. Adjusted EBITDA grew to €123 million, representing 4% growth versus last year, and an 11% CAGR versus 2019. And finally, adjusted EPS was €0.40 per share, representing 18% growth versus the second quarter of 2020, and a 2-year CAGR of 22%. Shifting now to the details of the quarter, we achieved strong performance despite the easing of restrictions across Europe and the anniversary of peak COVID-related demand a year ago. Roles in the frozen food category remained elevated on a two-year basis, but did normalize versus the first quarter when most of Europe was under lockdown. Again, this backdrop we experienced sequentially improving market share trends during the second quarter, with market share in May and June both increasing versus the prior year period. Our market share improvement has been enabled by better supply and service levels which after dipping to the low 90% range earlier this year have returned to the high 90% since May. We are encouraged to see a positive market share inflection and expect this momentum to build through the rest of the year. Confidence in our growth expectations for 2021 is supported by strong underlying fundamentals within our core portfolio. Improved capacity is leading to more normal promotion activity, and in turn, particularly strong market share performance in our core categories such as fish fingers, coated fish, peas, spinach, and green cuisine. Green cuisine continues to be a key driver of both Absolute growth and share gains as we build distribution, grow penetration, and drive trial across our European footprints. Our chicken-less range has performed exceptionally well since being introduced late last year and early signals of our recent fish-less launch in Germany are very encouraging. Further, with the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games underway, We are thrilled for Green Cuisine to be the official plant-based sponsor of Team GB in the UK as we democratize the meat-free category. One of our incredible athletes, Max Whitlock, has already won a gold medal at the Tokyo Games. Congratulations, Max. We have several 360-degree activations underway and are excited to bring them to life with the help of Max and our other sponsors at Lease. In two short years, Green Cuisine has become one of the leading meat-free brands within Europe and now has nearly 14% share of the frozen meat-free category across Western Europe. Consumers love our products and we continue to believe we have every right to win in this exciting white space growth opportunity. Our second quarter performance was also helped by strength in food service. which grew over 40% versus the prior year period. While this business is still down double digits versus pre-COVID levels, it is recovering nicely and given the strong race of growth is providing a meaningful contribution to the overall performance of the business. We expect this to be a recurring theme for at least the next three quarters. I'd like to shift now to the topic of inflation. Since presenting at Cagney five months ago, we stated that we expect to manage inflation in the lowest single-digit percentage range this year, despite rising commodity costs. Between the actions taken by our procurement team, the length of our cover positions, favorable forex tailwinds, and the nature of our COGS basket, we've seen limited inflationary pressure on our P&L for most of this year, and I have not yet had the need for significant price increases. As a result, our growth margin guidance for the year remains unchanged and we are pleased to be in a position to reiterate our 2021 earnings guidance. I'd like to applaud the efforts of our organization for their exceptional work. With that said, similar to many other food companies in the market, we are experiencing an uptick in raw material inflation, noticeably, in oil, packaging, freight, and logistics. As we have in the past, we will deploy our entire toolkit of levers, including productivity and price, to protect our margins and ensure that we can continue to deliver against our steady growth algorithm for years to come. Lastly, we prepared for the acquisition of Fortenova with the refinancing of a large portion of our debt. As a result of this transaction, we were able to, one, significantly reduce our like-for-like interest rates, two, extend our maturities, and three, generate 400 million euros of incremental borrowing capacity. Taking all of these factors into consideration, we expect the net increase of our annual interest expense to be marginal, despite taking on an incremental 400 million euros in debt. We are eager to close on the Fortenova transaction at the end of Q3 and look forward to integrating the business and brands into the Nomad4 portfolio. As a reminder, this is a transaction that we expect to be strategically and financially impactful for years to come. From a strategic perspective, Fortenova will expand our geographic reach into eight Central and Eastern European countries many with leading market share positions. It will also introduce us to ice cream, a new and high margin category, which will create a nice seasonal hedge, the frozen savory business during the summer months. The business also has significant exposure to out-of-home consumption and international tourism, creating a cyclical tailwind as the world returns to life after COVID-19. Financially, we expect Fortenova to be high single-digit accretive to adjusted EPS in its first full year prior to synergies. This transaction is expected to increase our adjusted EPS to over $2 in 2021 on a combined and annualized basis. We expect this to set a new baseline for growth in 2022 and beyond as we build on momentum in our base business, realize Fortenova synergies, and allocate excess capital in an accurate manner. In summary, we are pleased with our second quarter results and remain on pace to achieve our guidance for the year. We have an active commercial agenda over the coming months, which we expect to result in market share gains, growth in our international business and the recovery in food service. We will continue to mitigate inflation by driving productivity and raising prices were justified. We are building green cuisine into one of the largest and fastest growing plant protein brands in Europe, attracting new consumers into our portfolio and driving innovation within the frozen food aisle. And finally, we expect that the pending acquisition of Fortenova will serve as a new catalyst for growth in 2022 and beyond. With that, I will turn the call over to Sami to review the financials and guidance in more detail. Sami?

speaker
Sami Zaykowt
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Stefan, and thank you all for your participation on the call today. Turning to slide 9, I will provide more detail on our key second quarter operating metrics, beginning with revenues, which declined 1% to €596 million. Organic revenues declined 4.5%, as we anniversary peak COVID-related demand during the prior year period. This was offset by the acquisition of Indus Switzerland and favorable currency translation, which combined to benefit revenue growth by 4 percentage points. On a two-year compounded basis, second quarter revenue grew 5% and organic revenue grew 4%. This is the prior unexpected decline in our branded retail business, was offset by growth in our non-branded business, with food service growth of over 40% and private label declining modestly. We achieved 50 basis points of gross margin expansion during the quarter, or 90 basis points when excluding the dilutive effect of the Finder Switzerland acquisition, whose gross margins have a lower starting point. This is a solid outcome in the context of a heightened inflationary backdrop and significantly increased promotional activity versus the prior year period. Gross margin expansion was driven by a combination of productivity and transactional effects. We are pleased to be in a position to reiterate our gross margin guidance for the year and, as Stefan mentioned, are well equipped to navigate a dynamic inflationary backdrop. Moving down to the rest of the P&L, adjusted operating expenses declined 3% year-over-year, reflecting growth in NP and a decline in indirect costs. Adjusted EBITDA increased 4% to €133 million and adjusted EPS increased 18% to €0.40 for the quarter. Both metrics, built on last year's record performance, and were positive during the quarter despite an anticipated decline in organic revenues. Further, adjusted EPS also benefited from a 10% reduction in our weighted average share count versus the year-over-period, reflecting the significant level of share repurchase activity conducted over the past 12 months. Turning to cash flow on slide 10, we generated 103 million euros of adjusted free cash flow to the first six months of the year, equating to 66% cash conversion. Cash flow and conversion were below the prior year period due to the effect of COVID, which was a significant cash flow tailwind in 2020. In the first half of 2021, we rebuilt our inventory position, which was depleted in the year-ago period while undertaking a series of projects to support our long-term growth ambitions. This resulted in €55 million of working capital outflow and an uptick in capex. Looking forward, we expect adjusted free cash flow conversion to remain at a similar level in Q3 given the seasonality of the business and improve significantly by year-end. While 100% productivity will be difficult to achieve in 2021 given our working capital and capex need this year, we remain committed to this objective long-term. As Stefan mentioned, we refinanced at senior secured notes a Euro term loan in Q2, resulting in a lower interest rate, extended maturities and incremental borrowings. This was a very successful transaction with the 750 million note issuance representing the best pricing among similarly rated European bonds in the past five years. Following the acquisition of Fortenova, are performed and leveraged within the high threes and deliberated to the twos range by the end of 2022. With that, let's turn to slide 11 to review our 2021 guidance, which is based on foreign exchange rates as of August 2nd, 2021. We are reiterating our 2021 full year guidance based on our year-to-date performance and our plans for the second half of the year. As seen on this slide, our guidance continues to call for adjusted EPS of 1.50 to 1.55 euro per share, representing growth between 11 and 15%. Based on current FX rates, guidance equates to a range between 1.79 and 1.85 in US dollar. Guidance is based on a continued assumption of organic revenue growth in a range of 1-2% and based on contributions from Finland, Switzerland and translational effects, total revenue growth in a range of 3-5%. This assumes a continued normalization of the category growth and does not take into consideration the possibility of another series of lockdowns across Europe as a result of the Delta variant. We have a very active calendar planned for the back half of the year, which we expect to result in a continued market share gains and enabled by an improved capacity situation. As a result, we expect our retail business to grow in the back half, despite assumptions that the frozen category will decline modestly versus the prior year. In addition, we expect a contribution from our non-branded and international businesses neither of which is tracked within the Nielsen data available to the investment community. Finally, a quick word on the pending Fortenova acquisition. We recently completed debt refinancing which as Stefan mentioned reduced our interest rates, extended maturities and provided 400 million euros of incremental borrowings. The net effect is a marginal increase in our interest expense which we expect to absorb in our existing guidance. While we will update guidance on Fortenova upon closing, it is important to note that the seasonality of this business is highly concentrated in the summer quarters, mainly Q2 and Q3. The business is tracking in line with the figures that we provided at the time of signing and we continue to expect Fortenova to be high single-digit accretive to adjusted EPS in 2022 before taking synergies into account. However, given the seasonality consideration that I just mentioned, we do not expect a material change to our 2021 guidance upon closing of the transaction this fall. Had we owned Fortenova at the start of this year, our 2021 adjusted EPS guidance would have been north of 2 US dollars per share. And as Stefan mentioned, we expect this will set a new baseline for growth in the coming years and contribute to the 2025 target introduced at last year's Investor Day. Before concluding, I would like to announce that our Board of Directors has approved a new buyback authorization of up to 500 million dollars. Our capital allocation strategy has not changed and our near-term priority is to close the Fortenova acquisition this fall. Beyond Fortenova, we remain committed to M&A and have an active pipeline that we are working on. With that said, we continue to see value in our shares and this authorization provides us added flexibility to further enhance shareholder value while maintaining a reasonable leverage profile. That concludes our remarks. I will now turn the session over to Q&A. Thank you, operator, back to you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Please use the raise hand function to ask a question. Our first question will come from Andrew Lazar. Bart, please. Hello?

speaker
Andrew Lazar
Analyst

Hi, are you able to hear me?

speaker
Stefan Descheemaeker
Chief Executive Officer

Yes, yes, I can hear you, Andrew. Learning clear. Took a bit of time.

speaker
Andrew Lazar
Analyst

Thanks for the question. I want to start with market share progress. Obviously, this is such a key component to achieving the 1% to 2% full-year organic growth target. Organic sales only fell about 1% through the first half, so obviously Nomad will need a pretty significant acceleration in the second half to get there. I was hoping to get your perspective on that and how the share inflection plays into it. especially with a little more depth around must-win battles and things of that nature. And then I've got a quick follow-up.

speaker
Stefan Descheemaeker
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, you're right. Obviously, market share from the start, we always said it was a fundamental pillar for our plan for 2021. And yes, we knew from the start that we would be capacity constrained. It's gone. You've already seen the result in May and June in terms of market share. Unconstrained, obviously, Promo can start back, which is great. July, the same thing. So that's on its way. And to your point, above and beyond, obviously, volume and sales, what is absolutely paramount for us is market share, promotion battles. From the start, you may remember back in 2016, we said it's key for us. And what we've seen, which is very, very interesting, Steve, is that all market share in Muslim battles has been positive throughout most of COVID. Now up 100 basis points since May. So it's obviously quite significant. And we definitely believe in terms of retail that the market share in terms of Muslim battle for us, it's the ultimate indicator of brand health. So we're pleased with that. And it doesn't change anything in terms of what we've said all along over the last five, six years. I think it makes a lot of sense and we're making progress.

speaker
Andrew Lazar
Analyst

Okay. The second question would be, you know, despite the healthy EBITDA upside in 2Q, at least versus sort of consensus, obviously you kept the full year guidance the same. Would you suggest this is simply out of prudence, you know, given the dynamic operating environment or, you know, is it that the second half requires maybe a significant step up in spending for some reason or Thank you. Yes, thanks. Thanks a lot for the question. I'll take that one.

speaker
Sami Zaykowt
Chief Financial Officer

I think the year is playing out as expected and the amount of guidance is unchanged as a result. As you can imagine, as you highlighted, actually, the environment remains pretty dynamic on multiple fronts. Our GSTDPS is up 30% through the first half of the year and we are pleased with our performance. At this stage, it is clear that for us it's prudent to reiterate our guidance, but we will certainly update you along the way. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question. Hi, Rob Dickerson, would you like to ask your question?

speaker
Rob Dickerson
Analyst

Oh yes, yeah, I just, it didn't come through, I didn't hear that I was called on, sorry. So I guess first question is just a follow-up to Andrew's question around the share gains, just a little bit more detail. Stefan, I know in the past when we've spoken about the business, it sounds like given the Your exposure throughout the EU and timing differential and certain resets per country. I was just thinking that you didn't pick up as much share as you could have through COVID because of the capacity constraint. Now it sounds like that capacity constraint has been lifted. You're pointing to already seeing some share gains. It sounds like those share gains aren't contingent on kind of go-forward conversations with retailers and shelf reset timing to get product back on shelf. It's more just infilling that inventory on the space you still have that you never lost. Is that fair?

speaker
Stefan Descheemaeker
Chief Executive Officer

Well, it's part of that phase-out, but by definition of a retailer conversation, it's a bit more complicated than that. But definitely, we know we're more in a position to be more pro, more aggressive the right way, obviously. A&P, the same thing. And overall, you know, I think our relationship with the trade has improved a lot. So that, combined to your point with no real capacity constraints, that obviously allows us to play our game. Our game, which is a game back to what I mentioned to Andrew, is obviously, you know, Muslim battles is paramount, 70% of our business, the highest growth, the highest margin. and so it's a really interesting combination between market share gains and gross margin. Overall at the end of the day, the consumers have to appreciate, the consumers are going to decide but what we see is we are confronted by their choices.

speaker
Rob Dickerson
Analyst

Okay, got it. And it sounds like what you're implying as well is kind of just looking to see what the price came in in Q2 and I don't think I heard a lot of commentary around go forward Material pricing expectations that it's fair to assume kind of what's implied in the back half to get you to your full year. Organic is essentially mostly volume driven. It's a simple question, but just want to clarify.

speaker
Sami Zaykowt
Chief Financial Officer

We will be out by volume for sure but there is effective dynamic coming across the way that we've been managing across the quarter to support our plans and our investments. So I think that let's say we've always wanted to clearly win in the marketplace, I mean by supporting our brands the right way and through all of the variable whether it's on pricing or investments for sure.

speaker
Rob Dickerson
Analyst

Okay, and then just quickly on Fortinova. I know last year obviously was a pressured year just given the away from home channel. It's a business that has decent exposure to that channel. If you're expecting to close in Q3, if we're thinking about in the next year relative to how you view the longer run rate growth potential of that business, is there a possibility that that growth could in fact be a bit higher in 2022 just given the ongoing recovery of away from home relative

speaker
Stefan Descheemaeker
Chief Executive Officer

Well, you know, I think, again, you know, it's a very dynamic, you know, environment, Rob. So, it's difficult to say. The only thing we can say, we can see at this stage is the business is moving according to plans. Definitely, you know, it's more driven by things like tourism, touristic seasons, so we can expect something interesting in 2022. We haven't seen fully yet, you know, what the impact of 2021 is yet. We can only assume that 2021 in terms of tourism is going to be better, but definitely it's not a full season yet. So definitely, you know, we think, you know, we have our plans. There is COVID in the middle. We're going to apply our plans according to... to our game. There are many levers in that game with Fortinova and so we're going to apply it. So in the meantime, if there are some COVID-related impacts which are positive, even better, but we're not counting on it.

speaker
Rob Dickerson
Analyst

All right, got it. Thanks so much.

speaker
Stefan Descheemaeker
Chief Executive Officer

You're welcome. Thanks, you're welcome.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question is from Jason English, Goldman Sachs.

speaker
Jason English
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hey, folks. Can you hear me?

speaker
Stefan Descheemaeker
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. For whatever reason, there is always a bit of time lag.

speaker
Jason English
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah, for sure, for sure. I felt the need to double-check, though. Awesome. Thank you for... Yeah, you're right. Yeah, exactly. Better safe than sorry. So, the first two questions have kind of come at the organic sales outlook, at least in some way, shape, or form, and I'm not yet ready to move off that, because there's obviously been a tremendous amount of investor consternation around your ability to get to that 1 to 2 in light of what we've been seeing in the Nielsen data. And now your guidance is implying an acceleration to 3 to 5% to get to that 1 to 2 range, which optically, I'm sure you appreciate, looks like a reasonably daunting task. So can you walk us through, again, the building blocks and maybe put a little more teeth and quantification on some of these things? So you mentioned like non-branding international that are outside of the scope of Nielsen. Remind us how large those are and what you're expecting. You mentioned capacity situation as a dampener that's no longer going to be a dampener. How much does that dampen your growth? And what are the other puts and takes that we should be contemplating to have confidence in your ability to get to that three to five in the back half? Thank you.

speaker
Stefan Descheemaeker
Chief Executive Officer

Okay, let me start, you know, Jason, let me start with the first part of the answer, which is the situation as of today. And Sammy will go on with the second part, which is looking forward. So the first thing, as usual, and you know this, Nielsen is only part of the story for us. It's probably something like at best 50%. So all Nielsen data includes green cuisine, which is obviously several percent better than the Wall Street data. Food service, it's been a 1% drag over the past 15 months. Now it's a 1% tailwind. International is not in Nielsen. It will be a tailwind starting definitely in Q3. Nordics has been a drag in the past, was a tailwind in Q2, starting to get there. So that's the big difference between obviously what Nielsen says for the first two quarters and obviously our final results. With that, you know, I will give the word to Sammy for the second part, which is obviously, you know, the latest estimate for the year.

speaker
Sami Zaykowt
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think as you, Jason, hi Jason, I think as you combine all of the factors that Stefan has said, which is clearly building on the momentum that we have on must-win battle with the share games that you have seen. I mean, recently, clearly the step up in food service and the first one would include actually green cuisine in there. The fact that Effective Food Service is stepping up as we go and the element Effective International that are not included in the numbers, clearly that gets us to reiterating, if you want, the confidence of the one to two guidance there. Clearly, our assumption for category growth are for a modern decline versus 2020, but we expect our brand new retail will grow year on year. and the other pieces you need to keep in mind that are half to cons are actually easier than in half one overall.

speaker
Jason English
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Understood. Thank you. That's really helpful. I'll pass it on. Thanks.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question is from Robert Musco, Credit Suisse.

speaker
Tipoosh Barry
Head of Investor Relations

Rob, can you just please make sure to unmute your line? And Sophie, if you could just remind the Q&A participants to unmute their line, please. Thank you.

speaker
Robert Musco
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. I'm unmuted. I think I did it. Okay. Great. All right. Okay, Rob. I don't know if the audio is Apologies. Bad news is it's going to be the same question as the last four. But maybe a little different. You said the back half depends on market share gains, but a lot of your peers give us a lot of data on how their market share is trending. And I don't think I've ever seen share data from Nomad on a weighted average basis or percentage of portfolio. Is there any way you could give us a sense of like, Did you gain a lot of share in 2020? Did you gain a lot of share in 2019? Do you have that data internally? And how do you think your share has trended over time? And then a follow-up.

speaker
Stefan Descheemaeker
Chief Executive Officer

Well, you know, I think overall, you know, our market share was up consistently in the past. And again, not only in terms of sales, but even more importantly in terms of, you know, I think you will appreciate that, you know, in terms of margins, which is Absolutely fundamental. So it's really a combination. And margin pool means also Muslim battle. So Muslim battle, the market share is up even more. And as a result of market share in terms of margins, gross profit is even bigger. So that's that. In terms of 2020, as we said, market share was done modestly, I would say mainly driven by capacity constraints. Same thing for Q1. We said that, you know, we mentioned that the market share was down. You remember that, you know, our service level went down to the low 90s. So unsurprisingly with that and obviously with a lower promotion intensity, you only can go down and we knew this would happen. Q2 was flat, but with May and June up and July is still incomplete, but what we look at, what we can see at this stage is we are up. So that's where we stand, and I think it's something that we already communicated, but fine, we will make it even more straightforward.

speaker
Robert Musco
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Oh, I'd appreciate it. Another follow-up, inflation, you know, we've heard quantification from other companies as to how much inflation they're getting. It seems to be high single-digit, maybe even 10%. I haven't heard from you, but can you give us a sense of where you are right now? Is it mid-single? Is it higher than that? Is it offset by currency?

speaker
Sami Zaykowt
Chief Financial Officer

We clearly are seeing inflation similar to other packaged goods companies, but the reality is that our portfolio and our business structure is actually putting us in a stronger position In order to navigate, let's say, through inflation, I would say our mix is clearly playing us, helping us. For instance, let's say the fact that we have a high share of our portfolio in fish and vegetables is definitely a help because we see more modest inflation there. Effect is a tailwind, as you know. And clearly, I mean, market inflation is not necessarily a great indicator for us, given that we buy with scale. and for example I mean we are the number one buyer I mean of white fish in the world so we are able I mean to leverage clearly our scale I mean from that perspective. So inflation there is but if you want definitely more manageable given all of the factors that we have and we have a lot as well of ways to clearly navigate in a very efficient way through productivity scale, as I had mentioned. Mix is a help as well, not mentioning effects, which I have already called for. And indeed, I mean pricing and revenue management, which we continue to deploy year after year. Okay.

speaker
Robert Musco
Analyst, Credit Suisse

All right. Well, thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

As a reminder, please use the raise hand feature if you'd like to ask a question. Our next question will come from Pfizer Alloy, Deutsche Bank. Yes, hi, can you hear me?

speaker
Stefan Descheemaeker
Chief Executive Officer

Yes, hi, we can hear you now this time. Excellent.

speaker
Pfizer Alloy
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

So I also wanted to first just follow up on the top line again. I guess, are you able to talk about how much you expect this category to decline as we go into the back half in your core markets?

speaker
Sami Zaykowt
Chief Financial Officer

I'll take on that one. Actually, the category is expected to decline a low single digit as we have already mentioned. And our assumption actually is for modest growth in our branded business. I mean, for sure. And that's where we are overall.

speaker
Pfizer Alloy
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. And, you know, can you talk a little bit more about sort of any quarterly variation as we go through the back half? Because I know that the comp is is tougher in 4Q, but I wonder if some of the initiatives that you have, whether it's international or some of the other sort of product initiatives that you might have are more catered towards the fourth quarter. So just any further color on the two quarters in the back half.

speaker
Sami Zaykowt
Chief Financial Officer

Sorry, I mean, there was just a point on the line. Sorry for that. So, I mean, we're going to get to the details who will walk you through the modeling. I mean, the Q3 sales comp, I mean, are easier. And then Q4, we invested significantly in SG&A. So, let's present an easier comp as well. So, I mean, as it relates to the specific modeling element that you're requesting, TAPOS will take you through that.

speaker
Pfizer Alloy
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Got it. Okay. And then just on the gross margin, as we think about the back half, I wonder if you could talk about, you know, your conservatism around gross margin. How much of that might be related to, you know, just some of the cost inflation that you highlighted versus maybe incremental promotions that you might be doing to boost the top lines?

speaker
Sami Zaykowt
Chief Financial Officer

Our full year gross margin expectations are unchanged, Faisal. I think our raw materials are locked for the year and we have a really good cover as you have already seen and you continue to see. For us, promotions are an important part of the business model and of course this is how we contribute to stepping up our growth for sure. Retailer and consumer value promotion, this is a category where promotions are needed if you want to grow the top line and gain share overall. So overall, to close on to your question, I think the reality is that just a full year growth margin are clearly unchanged, expectations are unchanged for the year.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Okay, got it. Thank you so much. Our next question is from John Tanwang-Teng from CJS Securities.

speaker
John Tanwang-Teng
Analyst, CJS Securities

Hi, good morning. Can you hear me? Yes, we can hear you. Great. Thanks for taking my question. My first one, you know, I know you're not providing specific guidance around the Delta variants, but I was wondering, since the UK is your biggest market, can you just talk about the trends in July and how that's played out between the rise and fall of COVID cases and other things like labor shortages resulting in, you know, empty shelves and empty freezers? Is that a net tailwind for you with more consumption and maybe more retailers desperate for stock or is it a headwind? Maybe you can't get stock on the road.

speaker
Stefan Descheemaeker
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Yeah. Well, it's, you know, what's happening in the UK is an interesting one, but I think it can be an improvement indeed to your point. But overall, what's important when you take the big picture for Nomad is July is improving our market share. It remains a small month. So if there is a bit of a tailwind after the result of what happened with the retailers in the UK, even better. And that's that. So with Forte Nova, obviously, we're going to close probably at the end of Q3. So we're preparing ourselves. so that's obviously also an interesting one in terms of ice cream an interesting compliment to us so that's that stage but again Delta is we haven't come to any change with Delta I think at this stage we're not expecting any additional lockdown okay great and then it's good to see the share repurchase authorization but just

speaker
John Tanwang-Teng
Analyst, CJS Securities

Given your leverage in the high threes in the near term, how should we think of your willingness to allocate capital there versus paying down debt and maybe what level of net debt leverage makes it more comfortable to actually repurchase shares?

speaker
Sami Zaykowt
Chief Financial Officer

Our position is unchanged. I think our old authorization was exhausted and the board has agreed and decided to re-up the program to $500 million. We clearly continue to, let's say, focus on trying to enhance shareholder value overall. Our near-term focus is on Fortenova and M&A. And now we've added another level of flexibility with this authorization.

speaker
John Tanwang-Teng
Analyst, CJS Securities

Okay, great. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

At present, we have no further questions. As a reminder, if anyone would like to ask a question, please use the raise hand feature.

speaker
Tipoosh Barry
Head of Investor Relations

Sophie, if there are no further questions, why don't we go back to Stefan for his closing remarks?

speaker
Stefan Descheemaeker
Chief Executive Officer

Okay, let me go to the final remark to your point, Abush. So again, thank you for your participation today. Second quarter results demonstrate the power and the resilience of a value creation model. We achieved record adjusted EPS performance despite the anniversary of peak COVID demand a year ago. And as you can see, we're navigating a number of dynamic micro-factors this year, return to other form consumption, inflation. But in the meanwhile, we continue to deliver as our scale and balance sheet to build on the strong foundation for brands. And we welcome the new acquisitions in our portfolio. In summary, we remain on pace to achieve our guidance for 2021 and are on pace. to achieve our long-term financial targets. Thank you and have a great day.

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