5/8/2025

speaker
Nutrien Investor Relations
Moderator

and prospects contained forward-looking information. Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions is contained in our quarterly report to shareholders, as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A, and annual information form. I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrient's President and CEO, and Mark Thompson, our CFO, for opening comments.

speaker
Ken Seitz
President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today as we review our Q1 performance, strategic priorities, and the outlook for our business. Nutrient's first quarter results were supported by the execution of operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives. We maintained our 2025 full-year guidance ranges as operating performance and capital allocation priorities are consistent with previous expectations. In recent months, geopolitical events and trade disruptions have created volatility in global financial markets. However, to this point, these issues have not impacted the outlook for our business. Fertilizer market fundamentals have strengthened, supported by strong global demand and tight supplies. Canadian fertilizer products that are critical for crop production and food security continue to move across the border tariff free. And our downstream retail network is well positioned on fertilizer and crop protection supplies to meet demand for the current growing season. US farmers intend to increase corn acres by approximately 5% in 2025, which is positive for crop input demand. We're seeing strong fertilizer application rates this spring, and our U.S. retail fertilizer sales volumes were up 8% in April compared to the same period in 2024. As we plan for the remainder of the year, we will continue to position our supply chain to efficiently serve our grower customers in a dynamic market environment. Now turning to potash. Global supply and demand fundamentals have strengthened significantly. and spot market prices have increased by 10 to 20% since the beginning of 2025. We have maintained our annual global potash shipment forecast in a range of 71 to 75 million tons, with the current level of demand testing existing global operating and supply chain capabilities. Capitex is fully committed for the second quarter due to strong demand in all major offshore spot markets. In China, a step change in potash consumption in recent years combined with lower imports to begin 2025 has led to an estimated 1.1 million ton reduction in its strategic reserve. We anticipate favorable consumption trends and lower inventories will support strong import requirements in the second half of the year. Global urea and nitrogen solutions markets have also strengthened considerably in 2025. due to seasonal demand and supply restrictions. In the US, the combination of higher corn acres and limited nitrogen applications this past fall is supporting demand, while trade flow shifts and constrained logistics have impacted supplies. Nutrien is well positioned to optimize product mix from our low cost nitrogen network to meet demand this spring. Beyond the fundamentals, our focus is to enhance our core business across the ag value chain and progress towards our 2026 performance targets, which provide a pathway for driving structural improvements to our earnings and free cash flow. In our upstream business, we are leveraging our world-class asset base to bring on incremental low-cost fertilizer volumes as demand grows. This includes initiatives that enhance the safety, reliability, and low-cost position of our assets. Investments in our midstream distribution network will continue to be a priority to ensure we can efficiently serve our customers and support our growth objectives over the long term. Trade disruptions in recent years have further highlighted the importance of our leading global supply chain. In our downstream retail business, we have well-defined growth opportunities, including expansion of our proprietary products business, execution of network optimization projects, and tuck-in acquisitions. In the first quarter, we completed two acquisitions in the US, adding high-quality assets with a strong strategic fit within our retail network. Through actions to simplify our business and focus on core assets and markets, we have made meaningful progress on our cost savings and capital expenditure targets. We remain on track to achieve our $200 million target for consolidated annual cost savings in 2025, one year earlier than the original goal. We have further optimized capital this year, with planned expenditures down more than $500 million compared to 2023 levels. In addition, the divestiture of non-core assets has provided us with incremental cash flow. In the first quarter, we divested our remaining position in Seinefer, which was a passive equity ownership stake. Total proceeds from the divestiture during the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2025 amounted to 223 million. These actions further support Nutrien's ability to deploy capital towards high conviction priorities that improve earnings and free cash flow per share through the cycle. I will now turn it over to Mark to review our Q1 results 2025 guidance and provide additional details on our capital allocation priorities.

speaker
Mark Thompson
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Ken. As Ken described, our operating performance has progressed in line with our previous expectations. In the first quarter, which is typically a seasonally slower period for our downstream retail business, Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $852 million. Retail adjusted EBITDA totaled $46 million as weather-related delays reduced crop input sales in the US and Australia. Retail expenses were down 5% compared to the prior year as we progressed cost savings initiatives. In Brazil, we are demonstrating greater stability in our business performance supported by the execution of our margin improvement plans. We've maintained our full year retail adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $1.65 to $1.85 billion. Given the pace of field activity through early May, we expect the slower start to applications in the first quarter will be made up in the second quarter. At the midpoint of our annual range, we anticipate year-over-year growth in crop nutrient sales volumes, increased proprietary products gross margin, and continued recovery in Brazil partially offset by a return to historical average crop protection product margins. In potash, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $446 million in the first quarter, down from the prior year due to lower net selling prices. Our realized potash price in North America reflected the reset in values for the winter fill program, while the improvement in our offshore selling price was driven by higher international benchmark values and lower logistics costs. Our North American reference price increased three times following the completion of our winter fill program which we expect will support higher domestic selling prices in the second quarter. We utilized our extensive midstream distribution network to deliver 3.4 million tons of potash in the quarter, similar to the record levels sold in the same period of 2024. We expect annual potash sales volumes of 13.6 to 14.4 million tons in line with our historical average share of global shipments. Our nitrogen operating segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $408 million in the first quarter, down from the prior year due to higher natural gas costs and lower equity earnings from our investment in Profertil. Benchmark prices for urea and other upgraded nitrogen products have strengthened since the beginning of the year, while ammonia values have declined from historically strong levels in the fourth quarter of 2024. Our ammonia operating rate increased to 98% in the first quarter, supported by reduced maintenance downtime and improved reliability at our sites. We expect annual nitrogen sales volumes in the range of 10.7 to 11.2 million tons, with higher quarterly volumes for the remainder of 2025 compared to the prior year. Given the recent volatility in global natural gas markets, we now project Henry Hub natural gas prices to average between $3.25 and $4 per MMBTU in 2025. Our Western Canadian nitrogen plants continue to benefit from low gas costs due to a wider price spread to Henry Hub compared to historical average levels. In phosphate, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $61 million in the first quarter. down from the prior year, primarily due to the impact of lower production volumes and higher input costs. We continue to expect lower production levels in the first half of 2025 compared to last year and improved operating rates in the second half following the completion of planned turnaround activity. Our capital allocation priorities also remain consistent. We are focused on initiatives that support the achievement of our 2026 performance targets optimizing investments in working capital, and continuing to review non-core assets on our balance sheet, all of which we expect will enhance sources of cash flow over time. From a uses of cash perspective, we've committed $2 to $2.1 billion in capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and to progress a set of targeted growth investments that are aligned to the priorities that Ken previously described. This includes investments in our proprietary products business, retail network optimization, nitrogen to bottleneck projects, and potash mine automation. In February, we indicated that additional free cash flow in 2025 would be allocated to a narrow set of incremental growth opportunities and to share repurchases. Priorities that we expect will increase free cash flow per share. We've deployed capital on both fronts in 2025, completing two U.S. retail acquisitions in the first quarter, and repurchasing 3.6 million shares for a total of $188 million as of May 6th. We intend on continuing to repurchase shares on a routable basis under our renewed NCIB program that's authorized until the end of February 2026. I'll now turn it back to Ken. Thanks, Mark.

Disclaimer

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