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Nutrien Ltd.
11/6/2025
Greetings and welcome to Nutrients 2025 Third Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holzman, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A.
Thank you, Operator. Good morning and welcome to Nutrients Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans, and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions is contained in our quarterly report to shareholders, as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A, and annual information form. I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrient's President and CEO, and Mark Thompson, our CFO, for opening comments.
Good morning. Thank you for joining us today to review our results, strategic priorities, and the outlook for our business. Through the first nine months of 2025, Nutrient delivered structural earnings growth through record upstream fertilizer sales volumes, improved reliability, and higher retail earnings. We raised our 2025 potash sales volumes guidance range for the second time this year and maintain the bent point of our retail adjusted EBITDA guidance, highlighting the stability of this business throughout 2025. At our June 2024 Investor Day, we communicated a set of strategic objectives and targets that we believe provide a pathway to increase our earnings and free cash flow. Our results through the first nine months show significant progress towards achieving these goals, starting with our upstream operating segments. We increased fertilizer sales volumes by approximately 750,000 tons compared to the same period last year. These results highlight the capabilities of our world-class operations, extensive distribution network, and strong customer relationships that we have built over many decades. In potash, we delivered record sales volumes in the first nine months. We increased the percentage of ore tons cut with automation to over 40%, maintaining our position as one of the lowest cost and most reliable global potash suppliers. Our nitrogen operations achieved a 94% ammonia utilization rate through the first nine months, up seven percentage points from the previous year. Our operating performance demonstrates the significant progress we are making on reliability initiatives across our nitrogen business. Within our downstream retail segment, we delivered 5% higher adjusted EBITDA in the first nine months by driving down expenses and growing our proprietary product gross margin. We remain focused on efficiently supplying our growers with the products and services they need to maximize returns. As previously communicated, we are on track to achieve our $200 million cost reduction target one year ahead of schedule. These efforts contributed to a 5% reduction in SG&A expenses through the first nine months of 2025. We lowered capital expenditures by 10% on a year-to-date basis through optimization efforts focused on sustaining safe and reliable operations, along with a highly targeted set of growth investments. Delivering on these structural growth drivers, reducing expenses and optimizing capital spend has supported our ability to further enhance return of cash to shareholders. We allocated $1.2 billion to dividends and share repurchases in the first nine months, representing a 42% increase from the prior year. To put this all together, Nutrien is demonstrating significant progress across all our strategic priorities, delivering higher earnings and cash flow while increasing shareholder returns. At our investor day, we also communicated a focused approach to simplify our portfolio and review non-core assets. To date, we have announced the completion or have agreements in place for the divestiture of several non-core assets, including our equity interest in Sinafert and Profertil, as well as smaller assets in South America and Europe. These divestitures are expected to generate approximately $900 million in gross proceeds. We intend to allocate the proceeds to initiatives consistent with our capital allocation priorities, including targeted growth investments, share repurchases and debt reduction. We continue to assess assets on the merits of strategic fit, return and free cash flow contribution. As a result, we have initiated a review of strategic alternatives for our phosphate business. This process will include evaluating alternatives ranging from reconfiguring operations, strategic partnerships, or a potential sale. We intend to solidify the optimal path forward for our phosphate business in 2026. In October, we completed a controlled shutdown of our Trinidad nitrogen operations due to uncertainty with respect to port access and a lack of reliable and economic gas supply. Our Trinidad operations were projected to account for approximately 1% of our consolidated free cash flow in 2025, a contribution that has been under pressure for an extended period of time. We continue to engage with stakeholders and assess options to enhance the long-term financial performance of our Trinidad operations. Each of these portfolio actions are driven by a focus on enhancing the quality and consistency of our earnings, improving cash conversion and supporting growth in free cash flow per share over the long term. Now turning to the market outlook. In North America, harvest is in the late stages of completion with the pace supportive of a normal fall fertilizer application season. In line with a stronger plant health season we experienced in the third quarter, we expect a record crop will support the need to replenish nutrients in the soil. Summer crop planting in Brazil started at a faster than average planting pace, which has supported crop input demand and increased potash purchases since the beginning of the fourth quarter. In August, we increased our global potash shipment projection for 2025 to a record 73 to 75 million tons. We expect demand will continue to grow at the historical trend level in 2026, with potash shipments forecast between 74 to 77 million tonnes. This would mark the fourth consecutive year of demand growth, an indicator of the stability we are seeing in global potash markets. Our positive outlook is formed by strong potash affordability, large soil nutrient removal from a record crop and low channel inventories in most major markets. This is most evident in China where reported port inventories are down by more than 1 million tons year over year. In addition, we anticipate limited new global capacity additions in 2026 with announced project delays and remain constructive on supply and demand fundamentals. Global nitrogen supply challenges are expected to support a tight supply and demand balance going into 2026. Ammonia markets are currently very tight due to plant outages and project delays, and we anticipate the emergence of seasonal demand to further tighten urea market fundamentals. I will now turn it over to Mark to review our results, full year guidance and capital allocation priorities in more detail.
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