Navigator Holdings Ltd.

Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Navigator Holdings Conference Fall Fourth Quarter Financial Results for 2022. We have with us Mr. Mads Peter Zakko, Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Niall Nolan, Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Oyden Lindeman, Chief Commercial Officer, and myself, Randy Gibbons, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development in North America. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today. As we conduct today's presentation, we'll be making various forward-looking statements. These statements include, but are not limited to, the future expectations, plans, and prospects from both a financial and operational perspective, and are based on management assumptions, forecasts, and expectations as of today's date, and are as such subject to material risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ significantly from our forward-looking information and financial forecasts. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are included in our annual court reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that, I now pass the floor to Mads Peterzakow, the company's Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, Mads.

Thank you, Randy, and good morning, and thank you for listening in. Please go, yeah, slide number three. Our fourth quarter came in substantially stronger than the previous quarter with revenues of 123 million dollars EBITDA just below 60 and net income of 10 million. Our balance sheet is robust with cash of 153 million plus 20 million of undrawn facilities at year end. The delevering of our balance sheet continued with net debt reaching just over 700 million by year end. This is despite us buying back shares since mid-December. We finalized our refinancing efforts for now, actually just yesterday. And currently we have our next maturity is only from 2025 and onwards. So our next discussions with our banks will certainly be around growth projects. Commercially, our utilization came in just over 94% in Q4 compared to our guidance of above 90% and above the 91% reached in Q4 2021. Terminal throughput was 263,000 tons. in Q4 and that ran above the nameplate capacity which as you may recall for now is about a million tons per year. Seabourn ammonia transport was strong and we had 10 vessels transporting ammonia during the quarter. Fortunately we'll grow our vessel capacity through the acquisition of five second-hand vessels. Vessels that we know really well because we've commercially managed them over the past few years. We expect to take over all five a bit faster than what we had previously announced. Most likely will be done by April. And that's great, of course, in the current market, which is pretty robust. Our joint venture with Enterprise successfully continues to develop. We continue to run at capacity and we have great plans for expanding the terminal. And Brandy will talk to that in a little bit. The outlook seems bright for now. Q1 is almost over, and we've seen high utilization above 95% so far this quarter. The terminal throughput in Q1 is expected to be strong again at around 260,000 tons, and ethylene is in high demand in both Europe and Asia. Handy-sized rates have gradually firmed, and Øivind will talk a little bit more about those in just a few minutes. So I guess this makes us confident that our financial performance in Q1 of this year is going to be robust. This current healthy demand for seaborne gas transport is well complemented by a modest handy size vessel order book and also an aging global fleet. So with that intro, I'll just leave it to Niall, who will take you through the financial results from the last quarter. Please, Niall.

Thank you Mads and good morning to everybody. As we show here on slide six, the net income and EBITDA for the fourth quarter was 10 million and 59.4 million respectively, an improvement on the third quarter of 2022 and giving a trajectory that is expected to continue into 2023. The total operating revenues for the fourth quarter were 123.3 million. nine million dollars less than the 132.3 million for the comparative fourth quarter of last year, but 16.5 million higher than the 106.8 million achieved in the third quarter of 2022. The nine million dollar decrease for the comparative fourth quarters was threefold. First, we had a lower contribution of seven million dollars from the nine smaller vessels we have in the Unigas pool, Second, there was a decrease of $5 million as a result of pass-through voyage costs as a result of having more vessels on time charters than spot charters than the comparative period. And thirdly, $1.7 million as a result of having 84 less available days during the fourth quarter of 2022 relative to the fourth quarter of 2021. However, these decreases were offset by an increase of $4 million as a result of increasing charter rates, which rose from just under just under $22,500 per day for the fourth quarter of 2021 to $23,621 per day for the fourth quarter of 2022, an increase of $1,100 per vessel per day, as well as an increase of $2.6 million as a result of increased utilization, which, as Maz said, has increased from 91.4% for the fourth quarter of 2021 to 94.1% for the most recent quarter. We had three vessels in dry dock for their scheduled surveys during the fourth quarter, taking the total number of dry dockings to 12 for 2022. In aggregate, these vessels were in dry dock for a total of 375 days during 2022 and cost a total of 16.9 million. As we have no new bills on order. These dry docking costs are the only capital expenditures the company had during 2022. And for 2023, it is expected that we will have seven vessels enter dry dock and a total budgeted cost of $9.2 million. The operating revenue from the Luna pool was $6.3 million, representing our share of the other participants' net revenues. with the voyage expenses from the Luna pool of 5.5 million, which represents the other participants' share of our net revenues from the pool. Consequently, the other pool participants' vessels contributed $800,000 to us during the fourth quarter and $1.4 million over the 12 months of 2022. Voyage expenses, as I referred to a moment ago, decreased by $5 million or 22% during the fourth quarter to $16.9 million, which had the effect of reducing revenue, as I just mentioned, as these are pass-through costs. Our vessel operating expenses increased by 8.7% to $43.9 million for the fourth quarter, compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, which resulted in vessel operating expenses per vessel per day increasing quarter and quarter by 12.9% to $9,058. This was primarily as a result of timing, ordering and delivering spare parts with the average vessel operating expenses per vessel per day for the full year of 2022 being $8,210 per day, a level at which we would expect to maintain or even improve on during 2023. Depreciation of our vessels increased by 19% or $4.9 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, primarily as a result of the reduction in the estimated useful life of our vessels from 30 years to 25 years, which occurred on January the 1st, 2022. Depreciation for 2023 is expected to be approximately 130 to $134 million, an increase on 2022 as a result of the additional five ethylene vessels acquired or to be acquired from Pacific Gas. General and administrative costs decreased by 7.4% for the fourth quarter and 5% for the full year as we maintain tight control on our overheads, as well as additional costs incurred in 2021 associated with the ultra gas transaction and the running of our New York office, which we closed in mid 2022. that had not reoccurred in 2022. And other income being management fees earned from the other participant of our management of the Luna pool were $100,000 for the quarter and $364,000 for the full year. We will not benefit from these management fees going forward as the five vessels to which they relate have been or will be purchased by the joint venture and fully consolidated into our financial statements. We redeemed our $600 million Norwegian bond on December 23rd, 2022, and the foreign exchange loss incurred during the quarter relates to the retranslation of that bond between September 30th and the date it was repaid, resulting from the strengthening of the Norwegian kroner relative to the US dollar. Conversely, there was a gain on the cross-currency interest rate swap, which crystallized or was realized on the repayment of the bond and the consequential termination of that swap. With respect to the Norwegian Kronor bond redemption on December 23rd, we paid a premium of 1.79% or 1.1 million to those bondholders on the redemption date and wrote off $212,000 of deferred financing costs associated with that bond. The interest Expense for the fourth quarter was $14 million compared to 10.7 for the fourth quarter of 2021 as a result of rising interest rates on the proportion of our debt that is subject to floating interest rates. We have fixed interest rates or have entered into interest rate swaps for approximately 52% of our debt as at December 31st, 2022 at LIBOR or SOFRA levels that are fixed between 0.36% and 2%. In addition, of course, to our 8% fixed rate $100 million unsecured bond. Our share of results from the ethylene export terminal were $7.9 million for the quarter based on throughput charges relating to 263,000 tons of ethylene exported through the terminal compared to 234,000 tons during the fourth quarter of last year. and significantly higher than the 190,000 tonnes throughput during the third quarter of 2022. In aggregate, during 2022, there were 987,500 tonnes of ethylene throughput, which is on or about the nameplate capacity, and we expect this level of volumes to continue into 2023. The profit for our share of the ethylene export terminal for the full year 2022 was $25.8 million. which in addition to the $5.3 million for our share of the terminal's depreciation, gives the terminal EBITDA for 2022 of $31.1 million relating to our share. The tax charge for the full year 2022 was $5.9 million, of which 5.1 relates to the 21% US tax charge on our share of the profits from the Ethylene Expert terminal. However, 3.8 million of this terminal tax relates to deferred or non-cash taxes. Net income for the fourth quarter was $10 million, as I mentioned, or 13 cents per share, giving a total net income for 2022 of $53.5 million, or 69 cents per share. Moving to the balance sheet on slide seven, company ended the year with a cash balance of 153.2 million dollars against a minimum liquidity covenant from our various banks and credit agreements of 50 million dollars thereby thereby giving us significant headroom the cash balance is after paying the 600 million dollar norwegian crawler bond referred to earlier which relates to about 72 million dollars at december 31st our total debt stood at $862 million. As shown on slide eight, during the last quarter of 2022, we extended the maturity of one of the bank loan facilities by one year from 2024 to 2025. We refinanced another facility that had tranches maturing in 2022 and 2023 by means of a new $111.8 million facility. And we entered into a 151.3 million facility for our 60-40% Greater Bay Joint Venture to part finance the acquisition of the five ethylene carriers from Pacific Gas. The first of these vessels was acquired in December 2022, upon which we drew down $27.5 million on the loan. A second was acquired in January this year, and the remaining three vessels are expected to be acquired one this week, one next week and the final vessel expected to be acquired sometime next month in April. We will pay 60% of the remaining equity portion on these vessels, which equates to approximately $49.8 million from available cash, existing available cash resources. Yesterday, as Mads already referred to, we entered into a new $200 million facility, which will be used to refinance two existing loan facilities that are scheduled to mature in 2023. as well as providing approximately $65 million for general corporate purposes. This loan has a six-year tenor maturing in 2029 and has a cost of software plus a margin of 2.1%. On slide nine, we outlined the estimated cash breakeven for 2023 at $19,170 per day. This low level enables us to generate EBITDA throughout the full shipping cycle. In the box on the right-hand side of Schedule 9, we provide our daily OPEX expectations for 2023 across the differing vessel segments, ranging from $7,500 per day for the smaller vessels to $10,100 a day for the larger, more complex ethylene vessels. We also provide a range of the expected annual spends for G&A costs, depreciation, and interest expense. On slide 10, we outlined our historical quarterly EBITDAs, showing a marked increase over the past five quarters, a trend we expect to continue, along with the effects of our EBITDA on the graph on the right, if our average charter rates were to increase by $1,000 per vessel per day in increments. And with that, I'll hand you over to Eoin for his remarks.

Thank you Niall and good morning all. If you move to slide 12 we can see that the EIA is showing an increase in American LPG exports during the fourth quarter of 22 despite the decrease in natural gas liquid production during the month of December. The winter storm Elliot disrupted some of the NGL production at that time. However, this is now more or less back up to where it was pre-storm. Despite the lower production, LPG exports grew during the period. This can be explained by an unseasonably high LPG inventory in the States, combined with very low domestic consumption. US propane exports continue to rise into 2023. We can also see that for the handy size segment where the exports followed suit with increase for the March of this year. Propane is widening its competitiveness compared to oil. Both energy consumers and petrochemical consumers are looking to LPG due to its current price competitiveness. A widening gap between propane and oil favors demand centers which are able to switch between the two. Similar trends can also be applied to American ethylene and ethylene, which we can see on page 13. That excess production of ethylene translates to a fantastically competitive base for domestic and international ethylene producers. Argus is quoting market price for one ton of ethylene at $180 a ton at the beginning of March. This favors producers utilizing ethylene as feedstock in their production of ethylene. The American ethylene arbitrage to both Europe and Asia is widening. The price differentials have been increasing over the last few months, and physical exports have been heading to both continents, across the Atlantic Ocean and across the Pacific Ocean via the Panama Canal. The ethylene export terminal is running at nameplate capacity and we expect this to remain for first quarter and into second quarter of 2023. Ethane exports are showing continued robustness and we anticipate some growth in conjunction with incremental US ethane terminal capacity throughputs. Our ethylene vessels can easily switch between ethylene and ethylene, and we have a handful of ethylene vessels currently employed in the ethylene trade. In addition to energy security, the Europeans have had their hands full in replacing lost ammonia supply from Ukraine. And if you take a look on page 14, it clearly showing the change in European ammonia marine logistics. Europe recorded a historic high of seaborne ammonia imports for the fourth quarter. The handysized segment benefited the most out of the other gas carriers, enabling European consumers to source ammonia from places further afield. One third or 10 of our handysized vessels were employed in ammonia during the fourth quarter. As Mats mentioned, this is double the number of vessels compared to fourth quarter of 21. Natural gas prices, which is relevant to the production of ammonia as natural gas is an essential feedstock, has since come down from its winter heights. The price reduction is expected to put a damper on the current ammonia imports. However, we believe ammonia has a tremendous growth trajectory going forward, both in terms of playing an increasingly important role in providing food security through enhanced crop growth, but also within the energy transition where it can enable lower carbon fuels and energy. We can clearly see the positive impact on our employment mix on page 15. with additional vessels trading in ammonia, stronger LPG demand pool during the winter months and continued ethylene exports. These three elements positively impacted our utilization during the fourth quarter. And as has been mentioned before here, the health utilization has continued into the first two months of this year. Naturally, higher demand pool on the product side combined with higher utilization lends itself to a solid base for rates to improve. Slide 16 shows the latest uptick across all gas carrier segments, including the handy-sized semi-refrigerated, handy-sized fully refrigerated, and handy-sized ethylene subsegments. Spot rates for void charters take into account the supply and demand fundamentals at that specific point in time, area, and cargo, and can fluctuate quite a bit. The assessed time charter rates, which this graph illustrates, are based on a 12-month duration. It reflects third-party opinion of what the time charter rate should be today should a 12-month contract be executed at that point in time. And we can confirm that time charges that are renewed are repriced at higher rates compared to what they were in 2022. We have traditionally had a 50-50 split on cover across the fleet. However, we have at the beginning of this year selectively reduced this ratio to about 40-60, increasing our spot market exposure. The rate environment, as in all ship sectors, are influenced by the availability of vessels. Our segment has a limited order book, as you can see on slide 17, showing that out of the 122 vessels that are currently trading, 25 are above 20 years of age. The shipyards are occupied with building LNG, tankers, and bulkers, and therefore timing for any new gas carrier supply is limited to 2026 onwards. The yard bottlenecks are providing us with a clear visibility of the vessel supply balance for the next three years, which is a good thing. I will now pass you on to Randy Givens, who will take you through some of the current company milestones. Over to you, Randy.

Thank you, Oregon. So following up on several announcements made in late 2022, we want to provide additional details on recent developments regarding three of those announcements. So starting on slide 19, our fleet renewal program is making significant progress as we are selling our oldest vessels and replacing them with modern secondhand tonnage, starting with the sails. On November 23rd, 2022, we sold our oldest vessel, Navigator Magella, a 1998-built 22,000 cubic meter LPG carrier to a third party for $12.7 million. That leaves us with only four vessels built prior to 2008, all in the year 2000. And we continue to engage buyers who are showing interest to acquire our four vessels above 20 years of age. On the acquisition side, in September of 2022, Navigator Holdings announced that we entered into a joint venture agreement with Greater Bay Gas Company to acquire five ethylene-capable vessels. Following this announcement, our new joint venture, owned 60% by Navigator and 40% by Greenwood and Gannis, has already taken delivery of two of five vessels thus far, and the remaining three vessels are expected to be delivered in the coming weeks, earlier than previously expected. As a reminder, the total cost will be $233 million, and 65% will be financed by the $151 million bank loan, with 60% of the remaining cost roughly $50 million payable from available cash. On slide 20, we want to provide an update on our share repurchase program. In October of 2022, we announced the board's authorization for a share repurchase program of up to $50 million of NDGS common stock to be implemented via open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, or in accordance with an approved trading plan. Now, following the repayment of the NOC balance in December, We commenced the share buyback program, and through March 17th, we have repurchased 2.02 million shares at an average price of $12.57 per share, totaling a little more than $25 million, leaving roughly $25 million remaining from the initial authorization. To note, the year to date average daily trading value has increased to roughly 180,000 shares per day, or $2.3 million, with many days above 300,000 shares in recent weeks. Going forward, we expect to continue to repurchase shares as we believe the share price remains significantly undervalued relative to our net asset value and the current earnings backdrop. To note, the share price was $15 last June and $14 earlier this month, and our outlook is more constructive and our balance sheet is stronger now than either of those times. And given our aforementioned financial flexibility, we have the firepower to further repay debt, fund our growth capex, and continue repurchasing shares. Finishing on slide 21 in our most recent announcement, a few weeks ago we announced additional details for the expansion of our Ethylene Export Terminal under our existing 50-50 joint venture with Enterprise Products Partners at Morgan's Point. We have agreed to a capital project to increase the export capacity from approximately 1 million tons per year to at least 1.55 million tons and up to 3 million tons per year. The total capital contributions required from us to the joint venture for this expansion project are expected to be approximately $120 to $130 million, commencing in the first quarter of 2023 and ending in the fourth quarter of 2024, which the company expects to fund using a combination of cash on hand and additional debt earnings. Long lead items have already been ordered And construction is expected to be completed in the second half of 2024. Now, as you can see in the bottom left chart, the terminal continues to run at or above main plate capacity. And current limited spot cargo availability is leading many new customers to discuss multi-year off-date contracts. So we expect to contract the majority of the off-date values for the expansion prior to project completion next year. Now, I know several of you have questions about why we have a large range for the capacity expansion. The aforementioned $120 to $130 million will cover our full CapEx for this project, guaranteeing at least an additional 550,000 tons per year. Now, there will be some additional variable costs for the values above that, but not much. And the degree to which the expansion exceeds 550,000 tons per year will fully depend on demand and price spreads. Now, one important detail about the expansion is that it will triple our chilling capacity of ethylene at Morgan's Point. As a reminder, the loading rate from the storage tank to our vessels is roughly 1,000 tons per hour. However, the current bottleneck is the existing ethylene train's chilling rate of 125 tons per hour. Now, post expansion, the total chilling rate of ethylene will increase to 375 tons per hour, providing substantial flexibility and optionality. Although we can't go into the specific project details today, additional information regarding design and operations will be announced next week. So stay tuned as the expansion range will make a lot more sense then. I'll now turn it over to Mats for closing remarks.

Thank you, Randy. And yeah, we'll go to Q&A shortly thereafter, but just allow me to say a few words. And the main conclusion, at least for me now, is that Navigator is in a good place right now. Our earnings haven't quite reached the level we would want, but the direction is clearly on an improving trend. The balance sheet is in its best shape ever with an appropriate level of net debt. And we've recently financed the loan portfolio, giving us a long runway until the next maturities come in 2025. This gives us capacity for further growth and also redistributing capital through the ongoing share buyback, which we're halfway through. Commercially, the trend is good with high utilization of our fleet. Terminal throughput is at full capacity and we see a good demand mix amongst our main transported commodities. We expect that Q1 2023 will continue the recent improving trend and show an EBITDA that's higher than any time before. Beyond Q1, we'll continue to grow our company with the Ethylene Export Terminal expansion. We'll also continue to identify creative investment projects to balance our portfolio. We are particularly excited about opportunities that we expect will materialize within transportation of green or blue ammonia, as well as CO2. Complementing our robust existing business with growth opportunities supporting the energy transition will take Navigator on a truly sustainable path. Thank you, and back to you, Randy.

Thank you, Mats. So with that, we'll turn it over to some Q&A. Operator, please allow the first caller.

Can you hear me?

Am I on?

Howdy, Ben. How are you?

i can't hear you but uh all right well i'll ask my question and maybe it'll work um so uh the the first is is it relates to the expansion um by my math at the low end it would add demand for at least you know probably half a dozen new ethylene capable handy sized vessels and at the high end probably more than 20. um the Fleet is fully deployed. I think even all of the 17,000 vessels are fully deployed across the industry. There's really nothing on order. How are we going to move all of the ethylene once it's ready to be produced next year?

So, Ben, there is an interchangeability between ethane and ethylene. So I think there at least in the beginning will be a competition for moving ethane out of North America and ethylene, favoring the folks with ships that can transport either one. Jone Peter Reistadler, navigators and navigator and others so so that is there are enough ships today that can carry all that ethylene, but that is then detrimental on the attain side so there'll be there'll be a little bit of a puzzle between the two. Jone Peter Reistadler, But that's in the first instance.

And I can say maybe, Ben, also from my side here, that maybe we're a little bit less worried about that. I mean, we've seen rates for ethylene capable ships being relatively low, delivering a relatively modest return for all participants in the ethylene gas sector for a very, very long time. I mean, first of all, that needs to rectify itself so that the providers of that services are going to have a reasonable return on their shipping fleet. There are still a number of ships that are capable of transporting ethylene that from time to time also transport some of the other commodities. And I think we'll just see a little bit of, you could say, adjustment so that they will do what they were built to do, which is transporting ethylene full time.

Ben, any other questions? All right, we'll take our next question.

Hey, Randy. It's Omar. Am I coming through OK?

Now you're through, Omar. Let's go.

Good, good. Thanks. Nice to see you yesterday. Yeah, I just wanted to ask about a bit further on the terminal. And I guess you mentioned next week we'll get some more info on that. So I'll look for that. But just wanted to ask, you know, in terms of the offtake agreements you're discussing with your customers, how are they looking relative or how are these discussions developing in terms of, say, duration? And I'm sure you won't be able to comment too much, I guess, about the tariff. But I guess in duration, how do those compare relative to what you have on your existing volumes?

Sure. On the new agreements, you know, it's certainly a range, right? We have some portfolio players wanting shorter terms, one or two years, and certainly some that want five plus years. So we expect to kind of contract out with some range of maturities, right? So they're starting in late 24, some will roll 25, 26, and some will go until 2029 plus.

okay and then when when you think about contracting that additional capacity so you have the million tons uh and you're going to get it up to 550 with with the planned capex spend um is is it are you expecting to be able to contract you mentioned being able to contract all the volumes before the end of the construction period would that be for the 550 or is that for the full build out uh including the um the additional million yeah i think it's a the majority right so we'll have

at least 1.55 million tons of capacity. I know our partner and us both would like to see at least 80, maybe 90% of that contracted, obviously leaving some upside for spot cargoes, which we will have with the expansion anyway. But I would expect, yeah, that 90% number for the full 1.55 to kind of be the goal for contract.

Okay. Thanks, Randy. And I just wanted to follow up separately. Final question. Just kind of on the shipping market itself, you guys gave a pretty good update, and clearly there's been a big bounce back in the handy size shipping segment here. And definitely in the fourth quarter relative to the third, we're seeing longer distances for the U.S. exports towards Asia versus Europe like it was in the third. Just wanted to ask, you know, how are you seeing things developing now? I know you gave some color in your opening comments, but just wanted to see how are those distances going currently? And is there any risk or anything that you see in the horizon that would shift those back towards more shorter haul trades into the European market?

If this is specifically linked to ethylene, we're booking ethylene ship freight from the US for April and May already. And the indications are that it will continue to go to Asia, which is great. Some is going to Europe because there is a big arbitrage to Europe as well. So it's a little bit of who can pay the most in the ethylene freight game. But definitely, the trend continues to go to include Asia-Pacific destinations.

Great. All right. Well, thank you. I appreciate the color and looking forward to next quarter. It sounds like it's going to be a record figure.

Thanks a lot. Any other questions?

Okay, we have one on the line. I'll ask this. Orvin, maybe to you, can you give an update for where TCE rates are now and maybe your expectation for the rest of 2023?

We had some color commentary in the prepared remarks. On time charter rates, the renewals we are doing at the moment or in 2023 has been repriced at or above the assessment that we are showing. So that is clearly an improvement from where we have been over the last two, three, four years. So that is great to see. On the spot side, we are increasing our spot exposure because we think the fundamentals are there justifying that slight adjustment. So the spot rates depends very much, as I mentioned, the time, the area and the cargo. So that has a bigger variation volatility than the time charter rates. But in combination, if you combine it all, it is better than what we've seen for a long time.

Excellent. And then last question for Niall. After this quarter share repurchases, what is the diluted outstanding share total?

The quarter, as you mentioned in your remarks, Randy, the quarter or the share repurchase scheme only started mid-December. So the number of shares bought in December was not a whole lot, but less than a half million shares. We have up to date, we have about 2 million shares purchased. So it's 2 million less than that, given that is towards the beginning of the year. So around 75 million. Thanks a lot.

And that's, of course, with any potential completion of the program will take another, if it was at the same average price, of course, it would be another 2 million. So we need to add that in because the idea is that we have the full $50 million and so far we are heading in that direction.

Well, that is it for the Q&A. Thank you again for all of those who joined us. We will be back likely in mid-May for our 1Q23 results. So looking forward to seeing you then. Feel free to reach out with any questions in the meantime. Have a great day.