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Novartis AG
1/2/2023
Thank you to everybody for participating on what is a very busy day for reporting in pharma, European pharma. Before we start, just reading the Safe Harbor Statement. The information presented today contains forward-looking statements that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors. These may cause actual results to be materially different from any future results, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by such statements. For a description of some of these factors, please refer to the company's Form 20F and its most recent quarterly results on Form 6K that respectively were filed with and furnished to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. And with that, I'll hand it across to Vas.
Thanks, Samir, and thanks everyone for joining today's conference call. I really appreciate your interest in the company and our update for the full year 2022. If we move to slide four, This year, as you saw in our earnings release on 2022, we delivered what we believe is really robust core operating income growth and margin expansion. From a sales standpoint, you saw Q4 sales up 3% with IM delivering Q4 sales of 3%. From a productivity standpoint, we had a 15% core operating income growth in quarter four. And Harry will go a little bit further through the dynamics that drove that. But for the full year, that led to 8% core operating income growth ahead of our guidance. That leads us to have now a margin for IM in quarter four of 36.4%, and on the full year, 36.9%. And as a reminder, taken together, inclusive of corporate costs, we are well on our way now towards our 40% core margin guidance for the medium term. Now in terms of innovation, some important milestones. We'll go through those in a bit more detail. And we continue our journey on ESG, sustainability-linked bond. We continue to progress towards our 2025 targets. We have 31 million patients in our Novartis flagship programs. And we continue to have solid ratings across the key ESG rating agencies. Now moving to slide five. You'll remember that in September at our meet the management, we rolled out our new focus strategy and we've been diligently been implementing this across the company. Five core therapeutic areas, two plus three technology platforms, four priority geographies, a mindset to really focus on high value medicines to accelerate growth, delivering the return profile we believe the company can achieve and you saw that already in quarter four. And a continued commitment to culture, data science, and building trust with society. Now moving to slide six, and as a reminder, as you all well know, over the last five years, and really over since 2014, we've been on a journey to really focus Novartis as a pure play innovative medicines company. And through a number of actions we've taken, most recently with the announced planned spinoff of Sandoz, we're on our way to becoming 100% innovative medicines company. And when you look at the right-hand side of the slide, we believe that simplified organizational model will allow us to have greater focus, leverage our scale, and really uniquely position us as a global, pure play, large scale, innovative pharma company versus our peer set. And over time, hopefully also re-rate the company given the growth profile we intend to deliver. Now moving to slide seven, We've also guided to improve financials with this new focus company with 4% sales growth, a goal of core operating income margin of 40%, as I've previously stated, continued improvement on free cash flow, and importantly, an improving and attractive return on invested capital profile. That will allow us to continue to invest across our capital allocation priorities, which Harriet will go through in a bit more detail later on in the presentation. Now moving to slide eight, In each of the five therapeutic areas that we've outlined, we have core large-scale commercial assets and multiple pipeline assets that are now progressing. And we've focused our R&D organization around these five areas. We're streamlining the pipeline. I think you'll see over the coming quarters us exiting additional assets as we really try to prune out non-core areas and put all of our scientific firepower and ingenuity towards building out a deep set of pipeline assets in each of these therapeutic areas. We'll look forward to showing that progress over the coming year. Then moving to slide nine. In terms of capital allocation priorities and the strong balance sheet that we have, continue to invest in the organic business and pursue value-creating bolt-ons. We look at the full range of M&A possibilities, but our focus is on sub-$5 billion assets where we believe we have the opportunity to generate strong returns and find the most value when we look at M&A opportunities. And we also remain committed to our growing our annual dividend, and Harry will outline that in a little while. But we have paid out $7.5 billion in 2022. Our proposed dividend is another growth in the 3.2% Swiss franc and 3.9% U.S. dollar. range and even after the proposed Nando spinoff, there'll be no rebasing of that dividend. We'll continue to grow off of the current base. And we're continuing to implement our $15 billion share buyback program. We have $4.9 billion still to be executed and we'll continue to look at doing additional share buybacks over the coming years when the opportunities present themselves. Now moving to slide 10. And I want to turn now to our innovation story and where we are in continuing to improve our overall R&D productivity. I think it's been well recognized we are a leader in terms of generating approvals, the leading company over the last 20 plus years in generating drug approvals in the United States and around the world. Our focus now is to improve the value per asset, identifying assets earlier that have significant potential, investing in those assets more aggressively, pursuing more life cycle management indications. And with that, a goal to increase the success rate and reduce the cycle times and generate larger assets. Maybe not winning the game of generating the most assets, but really focused on high value, high impact medicines that could impact patients and the company's financial performance. Moving to slide 11, I wanted to walk through some of the readouts that we have coming up in the near term and then in the midterm. Now, I think as you all are well aware, Qiskali continues on track. We'll go through this in a bit more detail in a few slides for a readout in the second half. Iptacopan is progressing nicely with multiple readouts over the course of this year, a planned FDA submission in PNH, and then readouts in both IGAN and C3G. And then Pluvicto, where we've already read out the top line in the early prostate cancer, early metastatic setting with a planned regulatory submission in the second half. And I'll give you a bit more detail on each of these three in a few slides. But going to the next slide, when you look at 24-25, we expect to have an increased pace of readouts of potential multi-million dollar medicines. Medicines such as Palacarcin in patients with elevated LP little a, Ionilumab, where we have now moved this medicine into multiple hematological indications, first and second line ITP readouts in 2025. We have additional hematology and immunology indications we're pursuing now with this medicine. So you'll see with Ionilumab a broad range of Phase III programs initiating over the coming period. Remibrutinib, we have a CSU readout in 2024 ahead of our MS, planned MS readouts in the coming years. And then we continue to progress with FOAV101, which is our gene therapy for SMA in the intrathecal setting, as well as the first-line Semblitz program with a readout planned in 2024. And moving to slide 13, going into a bit more detail, Natalie continues to progress well following the first interim analysis, and we continue to guide to a final readout in the second half of 2023. As a reminder, this is a broad population, including both stage two and stage three patients, so the broadest population studied today. We have a longer duration with which we provide therapy to the patients, three versus two years, a lower dose to try to improve the overall tolerability profile. And when you look at where we are on the study, final analysis is expected with 500 IDFS events at the end of 2023. We've completed the first interim analysis As we noted earlier this month, and the study continues unchanged, the second interim analysis would happen after 85% of IDFS events are complete. Moving to slide 14, in turning to Plavicto, where we announced late last year that we demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful radiographic PFS benefits in this patient population. Now we're continuing to follow these patients towards the secondary OS endpoint analysis in 2025. We plan, are on track to file in the second half of this year. We have had discussions with the FDA and clarified the OS fraction, the fraction of patients that FDA would like to see has reached a OS endpoint prior to filing. We expect to reach that later, around the middle of this year, which would then enable the filing in the second half. Now with that guidance from FDA, we've made the decision to hold the publication or presentation of further data until the second half of this year. I know some of you have been looking for ASCO-GU and some of the other congresses in the first half. We will be presenting this data in the second half after we've reached that next threshold that FDA has outlined for us. We have alignment then consistent with what FDA has told other companies in the prostate cancer space to then be able to file in the second half with that data set. Now, moving to slide 15, and why that's so important is, as I'll talk about when we get to the commercial section of the presentation, Fluvicto is continuing to demonstrate, I think, really impressive uptake in the United States market. And the opportunity is to move first with the PSMA-4 study into the pre-taxing setting, which would expand the patient pool from an estimated 27,000 patients to 42,000 patients. Then with the PSMA addition study, which we expect to read out next year, that would expand us further into the hormone-sensitive setting. And then we continue to evaluate how best to pursue Plavicto further into the biochemical recurrence setting or the localized prostate cancer setting. So stay tuned as we continue to look at the further expansion. But I think this really demonstrates the possibilities with radioligand therapy. And we look forward to continuing to generate a broad set of data to support Plavicto's use and as many prostate cancer patients that could potentially benefit from the medicine. Now moving to slide 16, turning to Eptaclopan, and as I noted in the second half of last year, we first provided an update and provided the full dataset at ASH of the APPLY dataset, which I think showed really outstanding efficacy for both primary and secondary endpoints, superiority to standard of care in patients with residual anemia, In the phase three, a point study where we have demonstrated, again, really strong results, and we'll be presenting that data at a Congress in the first half of this year. And then we continue to progress across a range of indications, IGAN and C3G, which we'll read out in 2023, atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome, where we expect a submission enabling readout in 2025, and then a number of other indications, ICMPGN, lupus nephritis, immune thrombocytopenia, amongst others. Moving to the next slide, and just as a reminder, when you look at that data set that we showed at ASH, I think very impressive data in these patients with residual anemia. Some of the notable data when you look at increase in hemoglobin from baseline, 51 out of 60 patients versus 0 out of 35, so 82.3 versus 2% against the control arm. Hemoglobin greater than 12, similarly impressive result, 42 out of 60 versus 0 out of 35. Again, transfusion avoidance, you can see an impressive 70.3% improvement, and a tenfold lower rate of annualized clinical breakthrough hemolysis. So this is in that refractory setting. We'll present the data in the frontline setting. We've also initiated a study of patients to demonstrate we can switch off of NCC5 directly onto Iptaclopan in patients in that frontline setting. So building out a broad data package within PNH. And moving to slide 18, we wanted to also provide a little more clarity on our approach within IgA nephropathy. And this, sorry, this is still in PNH, excuse me. So, and this is the outline of the data set for a point where we'll present this data, you know, shortly. And you can see, again, you know, the design of the study has the potential to be practice changing in PNH. And as I said, we'll be looking forward to outlining this primary endpoint and secondary endpoint in an upcoming Congress. Moving to slide 19. Returning to the IGAM study, applause for Atacopan. We wanted to clarify that our current filing plan aligned with the FDA's at the nine-month analysis to assess superiority in reduction of proteinuria at nine months. A statistical plan has been agreed. This would support a U.S. subpart H approval for accelerated approval. We would then continue to follow these patients to look for the more definitive endpoint and to look at flowing progression for IGEN, which would take to the end of the study in 2025, enabling the approval to convert to a full approval. So that's the approach we'll take with IGEN, and we'll look forward to sharing that data towards the end of this year. Moving to slide 20. I did want to highlight a couple of earlier stage assets where we're continuing to progress now, really with a focus on large potential assets in the pipeline. These include drugs like XXB and cardiovascular disease. This is an NPR1 agonist given infrequently, a monoclonal antibody for resistant hypertension and heart failure. YTB, our T-charge platform, where we presented additional data at ASH, where we are now pursuing this both in the front line large B-cell lymphoma, but importantly also in multiple immunology indication on the back of data, suggesting that we can take refractory patients into remissions, at least in small-scale studies, and that's something we're looking at more carefully. Additional radioligand therapies, including in breast cancer and glioblastoma. PPY, which is our gene therapy and ophthalmology for geographic atrophy, which we acquired as part of the gyroscope acquisition. And lastly, DLX, a partnered compound, an oral alpha-synuclease inhibitor for Parkinson's disease. All high-risk projects, as is always the case in this stage of development, but all with the potential, if they were to work, to be very transformational medicines. And moving to slide 21. Now turning to the growth profile of the company and why we believe we can deliver that 4% growth, we have these six in-line brands. three major launch assets, Pluvikos, Semblex, and Atacopan, and these additional pipeline assets that I've outlined. And that's why we continue to believe that we have the firepower in-house with the assets we have to be able to generate that 4% growth with that 40% margin and create a very attractive profile in the coming years. Then moving to slide 22, The drivers of our growth in this year, this past year, were primarily Entresto, Cosimta, and Cascalia with major contributions from Pluvicto, as well as to a lesser extent, Semblix and Lectio. And we expect those assets to continue to have robust growth over the coming years. Now, importantly, we'll discuss a bit more detailed Cosentix and some of the dynamics there, but the critical element for our Cosentix story will be lifecycle management and the next wave of indications, as well as continued growth in Europe and China. and I'll go through that in a moment. Now moving to slide 23, when you look at Entresto continued strong performance, 44% growth quarter on quarter, you can see the US weekly TRXs continue to climb, demonstrating that Entresto really now is the treatment of choice for patients with heart failure, meeting the guidelines within the label and the relevant cardiovascular guidelines. You can see the NBRX is up 16%. We continue to see strong growth in Europe. In China and Japan, we also have contributions from entrusted use in resistant hypertension. And we remain confident in the ongoing growth profile as we continue to penetrate in heart failure, continue to generate additional real-world data, and we see that launch momentum in Asia as well. Now, moving to slide 24 and turning to Cosentix. I think as many of you have already seen, Consentix Q4 sales were impacted by a revenue deduction true-up related to prior quarters. This was related to a higher level of Medicaid utilization than we had expected. This is delayed data that we received from the various Medicaid channel sources. And that led to a higher revenue deduction for the previous quarters, which we took fully in quarter four. When we fully neutralized for that, we saw the US actually declined 6%. And when we look at all of the puts and takes, we see the US largely being in line right now with respect to Cosentix performance in 2022 versus the prior year. We would expect in the US for 2023 to continue to see inline growth. So that's when we look at all of the dynamics, you will see in the first half of the year, Some declines in Cosentix as we lapped the fact that in the previous year you had these deductions which were not factored in. But underlying, we expect Cosentix to be able to hold its current performance in the U.S. And then growth really enables us to get to that mid-single-digit growth, which will be driven by Europe and China, where we continue to see strong growth, double-digit growth in China overall. And that will enable us to be well set up for what will come next, which is primarily the lifecycle management of this brand. And turning to lifecycle management, when you go to the next slide, slide 20-25, really for Cosentix now to continue its trajectory to get to the $7 billion, which we remain confident in, it will be around launching these next wave of indications successfully. For Hydra Adonis Superativa, we expect the approvals in Europe in the first half of this year and in the U.S. in the second half of this year. This is a large indication where only one competitor product is approved, the TNFs. So we'll be first to market as a novel agent in this whole setting. And so it's an exciting opportunity to bring a new therapy to this patient population. We have the intravenous US launch where we'd be the first novel post-TNF medicine to be available in an intravenous formulation. We expect that launch in the second half of 2023. a new autoinjector, and then the continued work we have on giant cell arteritis and lupus nephritis, again, indications where Cosentix has generated, I think, compelling data. So, taken together, when we look at this profile for lifecycle management, the profile we have ex-U.S. and the stabilization of the U.S. business, we feel confident we'll get to that $7 billion peak sales potential over time. Then moving to slide 26. You saw that Kesimpta is continuing a strong growth trajectory with 28% constant currency growth, primarily driven by the U.S., though we now start to see a pickup as well outside the United States. Importantly, the key driver for this is the ongoing utilization of Kesimpta in patients who were previously on braces or were naive to any multiple sclerosis therapy. It's important to note that in the B-cell share of the total market, it's only about 50%. So half the market continues to receive older therapies. Our Cosimta exit share was 30%, and we plan to continue to grow that with a goal to get to 50% share of B-cell patients over time. So really good advocacy profile, strong convenience profile. So we'll continue to look forward to launching Cosimta around the world and driving that dynamic U.S. performance. And moving to slide 27, Kiskali had strong growth across all geographies. And when you look at that 33% growth, that's driven by a recognition that Kiskali really is the agent with the best data sets in the metastatic breast cancer setting today. And that's, I think, been really captured by the NCCN guideline update that happened just a few days ago. where Qiskali was named the only Category 1 treatment for first-line metastatic breast cancer patients with an aromatase inhibitor, which is the majority of patients in the metastatic setting. So with that NCCN guideline update now, and as we continue to communicate that to physicians, this hopefully will give us continued momentum, as you can see with Qiskali now getting to 27% NBRX share, And hopefully we'll see in that metastatic setting that continued climb on the back of the data sets that we presented, NCCN guidelines, broad momentum coming out of the San Antonio Breast Cancer Congress as well. And then that will flow into, of course, the Natalie readout, which we've already discussed, and the ongoing Harmonia head-to-head study we have ongoing versus IBRAN. Notably, as well, we did achieve an approval in China for Qiskali, which will be another growth driver for this brand going forward. Now moving to slide 28. Zolgensma maintained the leading share in patients with SMA less than two years of age, but Q4 growth was muted, and this was really because we've now penetrated most of the bolus, if not the entire bolus, of prevalent patients in most of our key geographies. And growth now is largely dependent on adding additional countries in emerging markets around the world. And so we expect with this brand to stabilize in the $1.5 billion range until we get the readout and hopeful approval in the intrathecal setting. We'll continue to work to increase newborn screening. Importantly, in Europe, that's at 45%, and we have the opportunity, we believe, to drive that up further. could be a source of growth, as well as adding on additional markets in Latin America, the Middle East, and other parts of the world. But the key next inflection point for Zolgensma will certainly be the readout of the STEER study of intrathecal patients and the STRENGTH study in the use of IV Zolgensma in patients in two to five years of age. Those studies are enrolling on track, and then we'll hopefully have datasets to share in the coming years. Moving to slide 29. I wanted to turn to Lectio and give you an update on where we are now as we continue to build a strong foundation for this brand to become a significant cardiovascular medicine for the company. With respect to access, we're now at 76% of patients covered at or near a label. In terms of adherence, we're seeing 75% of patients today coming in for their second dose. We now have 1,700 centers that have ordered Lectio. And we've been able to increase between Q3 and Q4 by 50% the number of HTPs who have prescribed Lectio either through a paid dose or through our free trial offer to now 7,200 physicians. So we continue to build that strong base, continue to generate important data. The Orion 3 data was recently published. Our phase three secondary prevention studies are enrolling well. We've launched now our primary prevention studies, which we'll expect to start in the first half of 2023, and continue to build out a robust data set for this medicine. Now, moving to slide 30, when you look at where Entresto is and compare it to where Entresto was in the U.S., we're largely in line with what we saw in the Entresto launch. A slow ramp as we build up awareness amongst physicians, get all of the various elements in place, and really build momentum in the cardiovascular community for use of a new medicine, or in this case, a new approach to controlling cholesterol. So we're on track versus the Entrusto ramp, and that's the ramp we would expect to see over the course of the coming months with respect to Lectio, with a goal, of course, to accelerate wherever we can. When you look at the US, the key accelerators are going to be new facilities, getting more depth in our existing prescribers, and continuing to educate HCPs on the Part B reimbursement process. We also would expect over the course of this year to get additional conversion from the free trial offer that we rolled out in the second half of last year. Outside the United States, a big focus at the NHS is to get a broader prescriber breadth in the UK. And then we'll have the hopeful approval in the back half of this year in China, which will allow us to have a major geography where we can further accelerate global lectio performance. Moving to slide 31. Plavicto, I think as you've all seen, is off to an outstanding start in the United States. And this is reflective of very strong demand we're seeing for this medicine. $179 million in quarter four, full year sales of $270 million, almost all of that was in the U.S. We are seeing NBRX share at 18% and that continues to climb in the post-vaccine MCRPC setting. 160 unique accounts. We have very good payer coverage. Permanent A code is now in effect. We're approved in Europe. So this is a story now where we continue to see very strong demand in the US and we see strong demand in Europe and we're scaling our manufacturing capacity to meet that demand. And when you look at the next slide, Our Plovicto manufacturing capacity is going to expand over the course of 2023. Our expectations are we'll be able to move across four facilities that we'll have online for this medicine versus the single facility right now that's the primary source of Rhea today. We're working hard to bring Milburn online by the middle of this year, which will allow us for another capacity expansion. Then later this year, an automated brand new facility in Indianapolis with substantial capacity. And then for the rest of the world, Zaragoza facility in Spain, which would then further expand our capacity for Europe. We're also evaluating adding additional manufacturing sites in Asia at this time. With the four facilities you have here, we're targeting capacity of over 250,000 doses annually in 2024 and beyond. And then we'll continue to expand that capacity by adding additional facilities if the demand warrants it. Now moving to slide 33. Semblitz off also to a strong start. You can see the sales share $150 million on the full year, NBRX share at 29%. And probably the most important element here of this story will be the Ask for First study, which we're enrolling ahead of plan. We expect a readout in 2024, which will enable us to potentially move this medicine in the first-line setting and potentially be used as an alternative to imatinib or some of the other first- and second-generation TKIs. And moving to slide 34, I'll hand it over to Harry now for the financial review. Harry?
Yeah, thank you, Bas. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone. I'm now going to talk you through some of the financials for 2022, as well as provide you with our 2023 guidance. As always, my comments refer to growth rates and constant currencies, unless otherwise noted. So next slide, please. I would like to begin by comparing our performance with the latest guidance we provided in October last year. As you can see, we generally met our guides across the divisions and at group level with a notable beat for group core operating income, which was largely driven by Innovative Medicine's performance. As you can see, Sandoz top line also returned to growth with core operating income impacted by higher than expected inflationary pressures on input cost. Next slide, please. Taking a step back for a moment, you see that our 2022 performance was a continuation of our strong track record for innovative medicines. Over the last three years, we have delivered a 5% CAGR growth in sales and double of that at 10% CAGR on core operating income. Obviously, this performance has resulted in margin improving from approximately 33% at the beginning of this time period to now 37%, an increase of 480 basis points in constant currencies over three years. In short, we are delivering consistent performance against our financial targets and intend to continue to deliver improved financials, of course. Turning to slide 37, I will focus on the full year numbers on the right-hand side. For the full year, as Marcel already laid out, sales grew 4% and cooperating income 8%. Operating income was down 13%, mainly due to the higher restructuring cost related to the implementation of our streamlined organizational model. Net income was $7 billion, with the comparison versus 2021 impacted by the raw stake divestment income. Recall, we had a one-time gain of $14 billion when we sold the Roche stake for $21 billion. Core EPS was $6.12, growing 14%, excluding the prior year Roche impact. Free cash flow was $12 billion for the full year, of course also impacted by the currency movements, but overall a solid free cash flow performance. Speaking of free cash flow, let's talk about the next slide. Of course, one of my favorite year-end slides. Given our solid 22 free cash flow, we are pleased to propose the 26th consecutive dividend increase to three francs 20 per share. This is up 3.2% versus the three francs 10 last year, the dividend yield of 3.8%. Of course, this increase is fully in line with our policy of increasing our dividend per share every year in Swiss francs. Now to slide 39, please. Thank you. Now let's get into some further details about our 2022 margin performance by division. Overall for the full year core margin for the group increased 130 basis points to 33% of sales driven by IM margin which also increased by 130 basis points to 36.9 percent. I will talk about Sandoz in detail on the next slide. So here's the summary of the Sandoz 2022 performance. It was a good year for the division returning to top line with sales up four percent driven by the biopharma growth of nine percent and retail growing four percent. Co-operating income was essentially flat for the full year disproportionately affected by inflationary pressures on input cost. As we look in the future, we expect continued share gains across geographies and true potential by similar U.S. approvals in the second half of 2023. With respect to the planned spinoff, we remain on track to complete this in the second half of the year, pending the required approvals. Next page, please. As we anticipate a spin-off of Zandos in the second half of the year, we thought it would be useful to give guidance for innovative medicines, Novartis excluding Zandos, and Novartis including Zandos, to allow for the respective modeling that no doubt you will do. So for innovative medicines, we expect sales to grow low to mid-single digits, and cooperating income to grow mid to high single digits. Novartis, excluding Zandos, has, of course, exactly the same growth guidance as Innovative Medicines because the only difference between the two are corporate costs. Now, Novartis, including Zandos, which is essentially today's group, the group guidance is assuming here that Zandos would remain with the group for the entire year. We would expect sales to grow low to mid-single digit and co-opting to grow mid-single digit. On the next slide, I detail a bit more the Sandoz guidance. So for 2023, we expect the top line for Sandoz to grow low to mid single digit and the core operating income to decline low double digit. Now this core profit decline reflects the required stand up investments and transition cost to separate Sandoz and some continued inflationary pressures. Clearly with this setting, 2023 would be the trough year for Zando's core margin, given the expected added cost to stand up a public company. Looking ahead, with respect to Zando's mid-term potential, sales are expected to grow low to mid-single-digit CAGR, and the core margin is expected to expand to the mid-20s, driven by continued sales growth and operational efficiencies, especially as a standalone lean generic company. On slide 43, I would like to add some perspective on the other key financial elements of our expected core net income performance. In short, we expect both core net financial result and core tax rate to be broadly in line with 2022. On the next slide, I would like to go into a little more detail about the tailwinds and headwinds facing core operating income growth in 2023. So the expected drivers of future co-operating income growth include, of course, continued performance of our in-market growth drivers and the acceleration of recent launches, such as Plovicto and Legvio. We also expect China growth to accelerate, benefiting from a return to normal in the second half of the year. Additionally, our simplified organizational structure is expected to continue delivering SG&A savings And of course, we will continue our ongoing productivity programs. Growth will be partly offset by inflationary headwinds, which are expected to continue in 2023. On inflation, some further details as we saw it finalizing in 2022. In 2022, the inflation impact we saw was a bit higher than expected in quarter four. So for the total company, we estimate that the 2022 inflationary impact was approximately $350 million. However, this was, of course, more than offset by cost control and productivity savings. In 2023, we expect the inflation impact to be slightly higher, also including some above-normal merit increases at approximately half a billion. This has been fully considered in our 2023 bottom-line guidance. The other headwinds are generic erosion of Chilean and U.S. and potentially dissenters in the EU and the stand-up investments as discussed related to the likely Sandoz spin-off. Despite the headwinds, we continue to anticipate further margin expansion in 2033 and beyond due to the expected sales growth and productivity progress. Finally, on slide 45... We thought it would be helpful to go into some detail regarding the currency impacts expected, especially given the significant fluctuations of the last months. As you saw in quarter four, currency had a negative 7% point impact on net sales and a negative 9% impact on Corp Inc. If late January rates prevail for the remainder of 2023, we expect the full year impact in 2023 of currencies to be much lower. On the top line, it would be 0 to positive 1%, and on the bottom line, slightly negative with minus 1%. As a reminder, we update this given the volatility monthly on our website. And with that, I hand back to Bas.
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