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spk01: Greetings. Welcome to the Aquin Financial Corporation Preliminary Fourth Quarter Earnings and Business Update conference call. At this time, all participants are in the listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Dico Axarillion, Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications. You may begin.
spk03: Good morning. And thank you for joining us for Auckland's preliminary fourth quarter 2020 earnings and business update call. Please note that our preliminary fourth quarter 2020 earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website. Speaking on the call will be Auckland's Chief Executive Officer, Glenn Messina, and Chief Financial Officer, June Campbell. As a reminder, the presentation and our comments today may contain forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements may be identified by reference to a future period or by use of forward-looking terminology and address matters that are uncertain. Important risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ from our forward-looking statements are described in our SEC filings. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. The presentation and our comments contain references to non-GAAP financial measures, such as adjusted pre-tax income and adjusted expenses, among others. We believe these non-GAAP financial measures provide a useful supplement to analysis of our financial condition and an alternate way to view certain aspects of our business that is constructive. Non-GAAP financial measures should be viewed in addition to and not as an alternative for the company's reported results under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States. The reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures using this presentation to their most directly comparable GAAP measures may be found in the press release and the appendix to the investor presentation available on our website. Finally, this presentation or comments refer to our preliminary fourth quarter financial results. These statements are based on currently available information and reflect our current estimates and assessments. The company has not finished its fourth quarter financial closing procedures. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ from our current estimates and assessments, including as a result of fourth quarter financial closing procedures, and any such differences could be material. Now, I will turn the call over to Glenn Messina.
spk04: Thanks, Deco, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Let's get started today on slide three. We're really energized by the great progress we've made across the company. We've executed an incredible business transformation. We're a better balanced and more diversified mortgage originator and servicer. We're stronger, more efficient, and better aligned with future market opportunities. We've concluded our strategic review and are excited to announce an expansion of our strategic alliance with Oaktree Capital with their investment in OFC Holdco Notes. We believe our alliance with Oaktree can enable a level of growth in EPS accretion and potential value creation that we could not achieve on a standalone basis, as well as support for refinancing of our corporate debt. In the fourth quarter, we continued to improve profitability. We delivered record growth in originations, and we continued to reshape and diversify our servicing portfolio. As we look ahead, we believe we are well positioned to capitalize on potential future growth opportunities in multiple market segments, and we're focused on executing five straightforward operating objectives to drive improved value for shareholders. Let's jump to slide six to discuss the outcome of our strategic review process. Our expanded strategic alliance with Oak Tree marks the conclusion to our strategic review process that we announced in May 2020. The objective of our strategic review was to maximize long-term value for Oxfam shareholders. Our review of alternatives, which was overseen by our board and with the support of Barclays and Credit Suisse, was fulsome and robust. Our outreach was aided by our public announcement of the strategic review process, which also resulted in inbound increase by parties not included in our initial outreach. We had discussions with numerous parties and all options were considered. At the end of the day, there were really no actionable change of control or merger opportunities that emerged from these discussions. In the absence of a change of control transaction, we believe we need to accelerate our originations in service and growth and address the upcoming corporate debt maturities to maximize our value as a standalone company. We concluded through our strategic review that our ability to increase the leverage of the total company using the assets of the operating company was limited by a number of factors, including proposed regulatory requirements that may increase capital and liquidity requirements for non-bank mortgage companies. So to address our growth and refinancing objectives with these constraints, we focused our structured financing solutions that would provide incremental capital to accelerate our growth and position the company to successfully refinance our upcoming corporate debt maturities without encumbering the assets necessarily of PHH, our operating company. We're excited to announce that we've executed definitive agreements with Oaktree for $250 million in incremental capital through hold code notes issued by Aquin Financial Corporation. This is our holding company, and this incremental capital is in addition to our joint venture with Oaktree on MAV. When combined with MAV, we expect the over $460 million in capital provided by Oaktree can enable us to potentially increase our earnings per share by 65% or more once the proceeds are fully invested. We believe the Holdco notes also support our corporate debt refinancing on more favorable terms while increasing the capacity for secured financing and share repurchases. For these reasons, the Board found the Oaktree offer to be the most compelling opportunity to enable a level of growth, EPS accretion, and potential long-term value creation that we could not achieve on a standalone basis. We believe the Oak Tree investment enhances our ability to compete and prosper, as well as demonstrates their confidence in and commitment to Auckland's long-term success. Now, let's turn to slide seven for some of the details on MAZ and the Holdco notes. You know, starting with the Holdco notes, these are structured with a collateral package limited to a second lien on the assets of OFC, the holding company. There is no lien on the PHH assets or guarantees from PHH. This is a substantially reduced collateral coverage and more deeply subordinated position in our capital structure versus our existing high yield notes. The limited collateral package and deep subordination enables us to treat the proceeds from the holdco notes that gets contributed to PHH or operating company as equity. And we expect this will increase our ability to leverage the assets of PHH with first lien debt and secured financing. You know this deeply subordinated position in our capital structure relating to the Holocaust Notes does translate into pricing that's close to equity. The Oak Tree Notes have a face value of $285 million with a $35 million original issue discount for net proceeds of $250 million. The coupon is 12% plus about 2% for the effective annual cost of the OID. In addition, Oaktree will receive warrants for 12% of the fully diluted shares of AQUA. In terms of use of proceeds, we intend to use $100 million of the proceeds to pay down and support the refinancing of our existing corporate debt in a concurrent refinancing transaction. We expect less restrictive covenants, eliminating amortization, and relative to existing corporate debt, extending the maturity with an expected tenor of six years on the hold code notes. Concurrent with the refinancing, we'll pay off our existing corporate debt per their respective terms. The remaining $150 million in proceeds from the Holdco notes will be used to support our on-book growth objectives through MSR purchases and funding a portion of the math investment. We do expect the incremental capital in the operating company will allow us to improve the terms of our existing MSR financing, which can create up to about $75 million in additional capital from our existing MSRs. The proceeds from Oak Tree will come in two tranches. The first tranche is $175 million, and that will come in concurrently with the closing of the corporate debt refinancing. The remaining $75 million will come in concurrent with the closing of MAV. Moving on to MAV, as we announced in December, we formed a partnership joint venture with Oak Tree Capital to launch an MSR asset vehicle. This vehicle will purchase MSRs. Oaktree will own 85% and Auckland will own 15%. MAV expects to leverage up to $250 million in capital that will be contributed by Oaktree and Auckland, respectively, based on our relative shares to purchase MSRs. And this will be leveraged up roughly one for one with secured MSR financing. So that gives us the capacity for up to about $60 billion in MSR UPB. PHH will be the sole provider of origination, subservicing, and recaptured administrative services to MAV. And AQUIN will also earn MSR investment returns on its capital contribution and from profit sharing on returns in MAV above 12%. MAV is expected to close in the first half of 2021, subject to GSE and regulatory approvals. In terms of benefits, MAB supports our servicing and subservicing growth objectives on a capital efficient basis and will help generate increased cost efficiency through increased origination and servicing scale. Moving on to slide 8, in terms of the financial impact of the oak tree investment in Aquin, We estimate that a combined basis to hold code notes and math can contribute up to $78 million in annualized pre-tax income from full deployment of capital provided by these two structures. We estimate full deployment of the proceeds can generate roughly $5 per share in incremental earnings on a fully diluted basis. This translates to over a 65% increase above our potential baseline EPS range which assumes an after-tax ROE range of roughly 10% to 15% on about $414 million of equity. Using a PE multiple range of some of our peers of roughly 4 to 6 times forward earnings, the potential incremental value creation is roughly $20 to $30 per share. This is a 7 to 10 times multiple of the potential book value per share dilution. Assuming the warrants are fully issued, and the corresponding increase to our equity from the proceeds related to issuing the warrants. The incremental investment capital will allow us to further expand our rich nations activities and expand our participation in the bulk purchase market. We expect to source roughly up to $200 billion in incremental total volume over the next couple of years. And again, that's estimated to source up to $200 billion. incremental volume over the next two years. The total growth in volume will allow us to grow our total subservicing portfolio to roughly $300 billion by the end of 2022, assuming the NRC subservicing contract is not renewed. So again, strong growth in the servicing portfolio resulting from the originations. We believe it's a great time to invest in MSRs, pre-tax cash IRRs, and our MSRs generated in December were about 12% before MSR financing. That translates to roughly 18% after MSR secured financing. In addition, we'll continue to opportunistically evaluate M&A transactions to expand our rich nations and servicing capabilities, which might provide enhanced returns versus MSR investments. Yeah, these estimates are based on the judgment of management and based on our current assumptions, which may be subject to change based on market and industry conditions, amongst other things. You know, look, the bottom line here is we're really excited about our alliance with Oaktree and the opportunity it provides to enable a level of growth and EPS accretion and potential value creation that we could not achieve on a standalone basis. Moving on to slide nine, maybe a little bit about the fourth quarter. So look, during 2020, we demonstrated exponential total volume growth, total cost improvement, and built a scalable and efficient platform to support our future growth. Adjusted pre-tax profitability was up roughly 15% in the fourth quarter over the third quarter, despite declining origination margins. Annualized adjusted pre-tax profitability has improved over $380 million. over the second quarter 2018 baseline for AQUA and PHH combined. Our multi-channel origination platform continued to deliver really strong results. Flow origination volume in the fourth quarter was up 49% over the third quarter and up over seven times as compared to 2019. So again, just really great performance by the originations team. And as we talked about earlier, we're focused on accelerating our growth trajectory in 2021. You know, we are focused on driving Efficiency in our operating expenses, and as a result of that efficiency and our continuous cost improvement, operating expenses are down 44% over the second quarter 2018 baseline for Aqua and PHH combined. That's over a $400 million cost reduction. So again, just great performance by the team in really rethinking and reimagining our business infrastructure. You know, we're, we're disappointed, uh, that settlement discussions with the CFPB did not resolve this matter. Uh, and since, especially since we've resolved all state regulatory actions filed against Aquan in 2017, we engaged with the Bureau in good faith, uh, throughout the course of mediation and numerous related discussions and took all actions in an attempt to reach a fair and reasonable resolution. Uh, we increased our legal regulatory accrual related to the CFPB matter by $13 million in the fourth quarter. resulting from our efforts to resolve the matter in mediation. Yet we remain steadfast in our belief that the CFPB's claims regarding Aquin's past servicing practice are unsubstantiated and the Bureau settlement demands do not reflect the merits of this case. While we remain committed to attempting to resolve the matter prior to trial, our pending motion for summary judgment, which was filed on June 5th of 2020, supports our position on this matter, and we expect to continue to vigorously defend ourselves going forward. Look, it was a great quarter, fourth quarter, great year in 2020, and I could not be prouder of the team of what they accomplished. Moving to slide 10, maybe a little bit about the Originations platform. We delivered a record total volume of $30 billion in the fourth quarter. This translates to roughly an annualized run rate of about $60 billion from our flow channels and about $60 billion analyzed from bulk. Total volume for 2020 was $59 billion versus $26 billion last year, so we've doubled total volume. Full-year flow and co-issue originations are up eight times over last year. Full-year bulk and subservicing ads are up over 48% as compared to last year. Our correspondent and flow celebrates increased about three-fold since the fourth quarter of 2019. All of our channels delivered strong double-digit growth quarter over quarter. As I mentioned before, cash yields and MSRs continue to be very strong, and our portfolio replenishment was exceptional. In addition, in the fourth quarter, we were awarded multiple subservicing contracts with projected volume of $16 to $24 billion that we expect will board in the first and second quarter. Margins, as well, continued to contract in the fourth quarter. We had expected that. The average margins fell to about 56 basis points versus our expectation of 77 basis points for Q4. This was really solely due to higher than expected third-party volume. Margin compression by each channel was actually slightly less than expected. Again, here, great performance by our rich nations and capital markets teams, and I believe we've got more room to grow. We'll talk about that in a minute. Turning to slide 11, our servicing platform continued to deliver very strong performance in the fourth quarter. Our servicing leadership team is doing a great job of driving continued improvement in efficiency and effectiveness and helping customers navigate through the crisis. Our call center continued to outperform the MBA reported industry averages. Our key claims metrics also continued to perform with nearly 100% effectiveness. We continue to invest in technology to lower unit costs, improve performance for investors, and enhance the customer experience. Despite almost all of our people working remotely, we've continued our unparalleled track record of helping homeowners in need. In 2020, we provided forbearance relief for over 180,000 consumers, and we completed about 40 virtual bar outreach events to reach consumers potentially impacted by the pandemic. The strength of our rich nations has allowed us to grow our servicing portfolio slightly in the fourth quarter, and we achieved roughly a 50-50 mix of own servicing and sub-servicing. Again, here I'm really proud of how our servicing team has transformed our operation. All our hard work over the last two years really positions us well for profitable growth, leveraging a scalable and efficient platform for 2021. Turning to slide 12. In 2021, looking ahead at the market, we expect the total rich nations will be down roughly about 17% with much of the decline in the second half of the year. BlackSide is reporting that there's still about 16 to 17 million borrowers who are eligible for refinancing, which should continue to drive the refi market in the near term. As well, the millennial generation is driving significant growth in the number of first-time potential homebuyers. which should long-term also bode well for the purchase market. Our reverse origination platform is positioned to support the financial needs of our growing senior population by tapping into an estimated $7.8 trillion of untapped home equity. Our special servicing expertise and track record of creating non-foreclosure outcomes for consumers positions us to support the roughly 1.8 million homeowners who are still on forbearance who may need loss mitigation assistance. We estimate that roughly 85% of these borrowers are delinquent, and we further estimate that about 25% will need loss mitigation assistance. We expect the increase in GDMA workouts as foreclosure alternatives will drive increased EBO, early buyout gain opportunities, in GDMA servicing. And the current low interest rate environment can create opportunities to drive increased realization of gains from executing call rates. As most of you know, as rates rise, total industry volume will decline. We also expect margins will contract, and we've seen some of that this year. However, rising rates can increase the value of our own MSRs by extending duration, and MSR amortization will slow as prepayments decrease. The increase in MSR values as rates rise will possibly impact book value per share. Turning to slide 13, our focus for 2021 will be on executing five key business initiatives that we believe will help us capitalize on the opportunities that are available in the market ahead. Those are accelerated growth, strengthen our recapture performance, improve our cost leadership position, maintain high-quality operational execution, and expand servicing revenue opportunities. From a regulatory perspective, we are monitoring and will continue to evaluate the impact that the Biden administration's key agenda items may have on our industry. We'll also closely monitor, be monitoring statements from the CFPB regarding any planned priorities or areas of focus. The president has already signed an executive order calling for various federal agencies to extend foreclosure and eviction moratoria. And the administration's enhanced stimulus plans could include additional protections with respect to forbearance and foreclosure and eviction moratoria. Any changes at the federal level will obviously be uniform across all competitors in the industry. And thus far, Aquedent alone, as well as the industry, has proven to be adaptable in a dynamic regulatory environment. We expect the successful execution of our Key initiatives will allow us to deliver positive gap earnings in 2021 with low double-digit to mid-teen after-tax ROEs, again by mid-2021, assuming no adverse changes in the market, industry, or business conditions, or legal and regulatory matters. And June will take us through our roadmap for 2021 later. And maybe I'd like to share a little bit more about each of these initiatives for 2021 on the next few pages. You know, turning to slide 14, in 2021, our goal is to achieve over $100 billion in volume with a 40-60 mix of own servicing and subservicing, respectively. Our fourth quarter run rate kind of puts us on track for those levels. You know, we focused on several actions to accelerate our growth trajectory by leveraging our multi-channel platform. We're targeting to grow our seller base again, over $450 in 2021 to support our growth in correspondent and flow volumes. as well as performing and special subservicing opportunities. We believe our broad portfolio of services, including subservicing, specialty servicing, NSR purchase through multiple delivery methods, provides a compelling value proposition. We're also focused on expanding, you know, our product reach, so expanding our share in the Ginnie Mae market through Correspondent and the Ginnie Mae co-issue market. In Correspondent, we're also working to introduce jumbo and non-QM products, as well as expanding our service to include best efforts and non-delegated delivery methods. You know, in subservicing, we're expanding our small, balanced commercial loan business. That's beginning to grow nicely for us. And finally, you know, MAV will allow us to expand our participation in the bulk market significantly, which will help us create synthetic subservicing. You know, and finally, as I mentioned earlier, we continue to evaluate opportunities to enter higher margin channels based on market conditions. You know, turning to slide 15, we continue to target achieving at least a 30% recapture rate for a recapture platform. And we believe our recapture performance is only limited by our operating capacity to address available opportunities. And our recapture team has consistently, over the last four or five quarters, grown our closings quarter over quarter, and has marched up the recapture rate quite nicely. But we've still got more room to grow. So we expect to increase staffing levels by over 40% through the course of 2021. We're continuing to hire and train new team players. in every position and intend to do so throughout the year. We are focused on process and technology as well. We're focused on helping new team players improve their productivity as they mature in their roles. We're also driving continuous process improvement with our process improvement teams, leveraging our global workforce. And we're focused on implementing new technology to support expanding our capacity and cross the entire Low Duration Nation life cycle. Moving to slide 16, we remain focused on driving productivity to improve our cost leadership position while maintaining high-quality operational execution. We're targeting to reduce our servicing operating costs by roughly two basis points of UPB this year and reducing corporate overhead expenses by roughly one basis point of UPB. We're executing over 60 technology-enabled projects across the business to drive productivity, cost reduction, and improve customer experience and support growth. We'll continue to focus on high quality execution in our operations relative to competitive entry benchmarks to further improve our customer experience and create value for investors and clients. And as we did in 2020, we stand ready to support consumers in need of forbearance relief and loss mitigation assistance as they come off forbearance. You know, on slide 17, you know, finally we're focused here on several actions aimed to expand our servicing revenue opportunities. We're preparing for a surge in loss mitigation related to expiring GDMA forbearance plans. We expect this will also create a potential surge in early buyout and modification-related redelivery gains. Here we're tracking roughly $300 million in RMBS call rate opportunities. We expect roughly $125 million will be eligible to call in 2021, and we'll continue to evaluate the variables that impact eligibility and economics of executing these calls throughout the year. And finally, we continue to evaluate opportunities to expand our capabilities in both forward and reverse servicing. And now I'll turn it over to June to go through our financial performance for the quarter.
spk00: Thank you, Glenn. Please turn to slide 19. This is our fifth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted pre-tax income. Revenue decreased quarter-by-quarter, driven primarily by lower NRZ subservicing fees resulting from UPV transfer and runoff. We've been awarded multiple subservicing contracts with projected volume of $16 to $24 billion and closed approximately $15 billion of MSR bulk purchases, which should largely offset the lost revenue. MSR adjustment decrease is driven by fair value calibration for higher runoff, which reduced the fair value of MSRs in the third quarter. We also recorded $3 million of higher gain during the quarter, largely driven by higher MSR purchase volumes. Operating expense improvement is from leveraging technology and productivity actions as we continue to invest in our originations platform. Adjusted pre-tax income is $15 million. $2 million higher than prior quarter is favorable MSR valuation and lower expenses offset lower revenue. Notables in the fourth quarter include a $13 million additional CFPB accrual and $4 million in other legal accruals. We had higher income tax expense during the quarter, which excludes tax benefit on fourth quarter legal accruals, which we expect to recognize when paid in 2021, and fourth quarter period adjustment to the CARES Act benefit for higher pre-tax income than previously estimated for the year. We reported a gap net loss of $7 million, $2 million improvement over prior quarter, and after the $13 million of additional CFPB accrual I previously mentioned. Please turn to slide 20. A balanced business model is operating well. Origination's growth and profitability is replenishing the servicing portfolio and offsetting runoff. On the left side of the slide, you can see that our multi-channel platform is fueling strong Origination's volume with growth up 164% quarter-over-quarter. Servicing Originated volume is up almost four times quarter-over-quarter, driving strong replenishment of 267%. Adjusted pre-tax income was $35 million, $2 million lower than the prior quarter as higher volume was offset by expected margin normalization, and $5 million of investment in our platform. On the right side of the slide, our servicing segment is demonstrating strong performance through the refinance cycle, delivering improved results quarter-by-quarter. UPB runoff is being replenished through newly originated servicing and subservicing in spite of $16 billion transfer of the NRZ portfolio. previously terminated in 2020. We have a strong subservicing pipeline with our top 15 prospects at approximately $85 billion with additional opportunities from MAV. We continue to optimize our cost structure through rigorous process redesign and increased automation driving improved efficiency. Please turn to slide 21. Our total exposure to loans on forbearance continues to diminish in tracks favorable to our forecast. You can see on the left that both the total number of forbearance plans and the forbearance plans where we have ultimate responsibility to advance continue to decline. As the chart reflects, there's a significant difference between total forbearance plans and the amount where we have ultimate responsibility to advance. This is a function of and a benefit from our strategy to maintain a mix of owned servicing and subservicing. On the upper right chart, you can see that our owned servicing portfolios performing favorable to other non-bank servicers in terms of percent of loans on forbearance. We are seeing roughly 53% of our borrowers on maturing forbearance plans reinstate and 40% extend. Roughly 4% have progressed to loss mitigation and we are awaiting direction from the borrower on about 3% of plans that have matured. Our expectation is roughly 75% of borrowers on forbearance will reinstate and roughly 25% will need some form of loss assistance. Please turn to slide 22. We ended the quarter with $285 million in liquidity. We have made significant investments in bulk MSR market opportunities and originations during the quarter. We invested $190 million in cash before financing to fund $25 billion of MSR originations, $18 billion higher than the prior quarter, largely driven by opportunistic bulk MSR acquisitions. Our originations generated strong cash-on-cash unlevered yields of approximately 12% across all channels. Servicing advances continued to track favorably, and actual advances were 29% lower than forecast. Lower advance originations were largely driven by higher prepayments and more forbearance plans performing. Please turn to slide 23. We're focused on our five operating objectives as highlighted by Glenn earlier to achieve our profitability goals. We expect to generate positive gap earnings in 2021 with low to mid-teen after-tax ROE by mid-2021. This page is a roadmap to achieving these results broken down by operating objectives and origination, servicing, and corporate segments. I won't go through the details on the call here today, but please let me know if you'd like to review it another time as we have to go through the details. Now I'll turn it back over to Ben.
spk04: Thanks, June. To wrap up, let's turn to page 24. As I said at the onset, I'm just energized about the opportunities and our potential for 2021 and beyond. We've radically transformed Aquin. It's a better balanced, diversified mortgage originator and servicer. Our strategic alliance with Oak Tree can provide almost a half a billion dollars of incremental capital to enable a level of growth, EPS accretion, and potential value creation that we could just not achieve on a standalone basis. We're stronger, more efficient, and better aligned to future market opportunities as a result of all the hard work of the Aquin global team. We're delivering record growth and originations, and we continue to reshape and diversify our servicing portfolio. As we look to the opportunities ahead, we believe we're fairly well positioned to capitalize on the potential future growth opportunities in multiple market segments. In 2021, we're focused on executing five straightforward objectives to drive improved value for shareholders and achieve our goal of low double-digit to mid-teen after-tax return on equities by mid-2021. And none of this would be possible without all the hard work of our global Aquin team. So I want to thank our board and global team members for their tireless efforts to transform Aquin and their service to homeowners, communities, and investors. And with that, Shamali, let's open it up for questions.
spk01: Sure. At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. And our first question is from Lee Cooperman with Omega Family Office. Please proceed with your question.
spk06: Thank you. You've provided a tremendous amount of information here. I have spent some time digesting it, but I congratulate you. based on everything you've said, it seems very positive. I'm a little confused, and I have a feeling it has to do with time frame. On page three of the presentation, you talk about a low double-digit to mid-teen average tax return on equity, and then on page eight, you talk about 10 to $12.10 a share in earnings. Number one, what is the pro forma book value now after the second transaction with Oak Tree? What are we looking at in terms of book value?
spk04: Yeah, Lee, based on the current $414 million of equity capital at Aquin, your current book value per share, and this is on page 27 of the presentation for future reference, is $4,765. And after execution of all the warrants, that were granted to Oak Tree, and again, assuming the proceeds from those warrants come into the company related to executing those warrants, we would expect the diluted book value per share to be $44.87, again, starting with the $414 million.
spk06: Okay, so the return on equity of low double digits and mid-teens should be applied against that $44.87 number?
spk04: I don't think so, Lee. So it all depends on when OATRI executes the warrants, right? So they execute them right up front, and obviously the additional capital comes into business and the dilution happens. We're assuming in our targets that the warrants aren't immediately exercised. They wouldn't be exercised until some future date. So our low double digits to mid-teen returns is really focused on the $414 million of equity.
spk06: All right, well, so the $10 to $12.10 of incremental earnings, what time frame are we talking about? It's obviously not 2021.
spk04: Yeah, Lee, we think it'll take about two years to fully invest all the proceeds that are coming in from Oaktree, both in terms of MAV as well as the on-book capital. We'll obviously invest it as fast as we can, and obviously it's a great market environment now, so I think there's lots of near-term opportunity to invest. But for purposes of what we laid out here, we are assuming it takes about two years to invest the proceeds.
spk06: Okay. So the two years, and you generate incremental $10 to $12 in earnings, then the return on equity would be materially different.
spk04: Yeah, that's right, Lee. So, again, if you do that map coming off of page 27, it would imply a return on equity of about 22% to 26%. Right, right.
spk06: Just a few other questions, if I may. Oaktree has access to information that the public doesn't have, which is understandable since they've made such a large investment. Could we derive some comfort from their willingness to invest close to a half a billion dollars as regards to CPFB litigation, do you think?
spk04: Look, Lee, as you might imagine, Oak Tree putting up almost a half a billion dollars of capital into the company. They performed the requisite diligence that's commensurate with that size investment. And look, I think their commitment to the company, the size of their investment and the duration of their investment reflects a strong commitment to the company and our growth potential. And obviously, they evaluated the risks and opportunities associated with the company. And We're excited to have them as a partner. I think it takes the company to a whole new level having O3 as a partner.
spk06: Okay. With this new capital coming in, I assume the refinancing will no longer be conditional, that the refinancing will move ahead?
spk04: Look, it's got to be – certainly market conditions can always impact any refinancing. But, look, we feel really good about the O3 capital coming in. and how that sets us up to do the refinancing. It's a great market and a high-yield market. You know, we're going to, you know, obviously, you know, time is of the essence, so we want to react quickly here. But, you know, again, we think the O-Tree additional investment here is a huge boost in our ability to execute our refinancing plan.
spk06: Last question really revolves around cost of capital. People like PFSI and COOP are financing at around 4.5% without warrants today. We're taking 12.5% money and giving warrants. Are we cost competitive vis-a-vis our competition given our cost of capital?
spk04: Lee, look, based on where levered returns are in the MSR environment today and the fact that we're not growing solely through on-book capital, we're using MAV, for example, to create additional fee income, which enhances our base level of return on equity. I think we are. One of the things that we've done in the business to drive our improved competitiveness is we just relentlessly focus on cost and operational execution. And they go hand in hand. So just cutting costs without improving operational execution just creates costs in a different way. So look, we will continue to be passionate and resolute in driving an industry best practice cost structure in the business. which helps offset our cost of capital as it exists today. But look, Lee, as the business improves and as profit improves, we expect it'll help us lower our cost of capital over time.
spk06: Right. And just as an observation, it's far off into the future. It's not now. But given where the stock trades and your profile book value and the anticipated $10 to $12 of incremental earnings, Are we going to generate the free cash flow to take advantage of Mr. Market where we could shrink equity to offset some of this dilution that we're creating through the warrants?
spk04: Yeah, Lee, one of the benefits of having this incremental capital come in to support on-book MSR investments is on-book MSRs generate great cash flow. They have very strong cash flow dynamics. So as we continue to invest and scale up our operation and take advantage of our scalable and efficient platform, We expect cash flow will improve along with the earnings of the company, and EBITDA, so to speak, will improve with earnings of the company. And under the current Holdco note structures, as I mentioned earlier, assuming the refinancing gets done, we'll have structurally increased flexibility to execute share repurchases as long as we're on target with our growth expectations and profit expectations.
spk06: All right. Thank you very much. Good luck and congratulations on your refinancing.
spk04: Thank you, Lee. Appreciate it.
spk01: And just as a reminder, if anyone has any questions, you may dial star one on your telephone keypad. Doing so will ensure that you join the question queue. Our next question is from Marco Rodriguez with Stonegate Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
spk02: Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. I was wondering, Hey, yeah, I was wondering if maybe you could talk a little bit more about the strategic review process just kind of obviously understand the what have been done here terms with with Oakmark, but I'm just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the other potentials that you kind of reviewed and just kind of frame them in terms of compare and contrast if you can between what you guys basically executed right now.
spk04: Yeah, sure. So Marco, Yeah, as I mentioned earlier and mentioned during the course of 2020 as the strategic review is ongoing, all options were on the table. So we did, you know, have a very broad outreach to many players within, you know, both strategic and financial investors. And we did have reverse inquiry come into the business as well because it was a public process. We were open about it. We looked at a variety of different things from refinancing transactions to potential merger transactions. As I said earlier, there really were no actionable merger opportunities. I want to say that we got great feedback during the strategic review process. People were impressed by the turnaround performance here in the business and the transformation that we've done. But, you know, from an M&A perspective or a merger perspective, you know, look, this is a very hot originations market. As you can see in the press, in the papers, in the industry, you know, a lot of folks with big originations platforms are looking to monetize their investment and are looking to get bigger in originations. So, you know, we found that, look, from an M&A perspective, they're generally, you know, I think valuation expectations are very high. amongst originators. As a result, I'm just not sure there was anything as compelling, quite frankly, as the oak tree proposal. As it relates to the oak tree proposal, there were other similar structures that were presented during the course of the process. Obviously, people executed confidentiality agreements, so we didn't necessarily share information across people. You can't do that. So, yeah, but look, Oaktree was not the only proposal with this kind of structure, but it certainly was the most competitive. And, you know, we believe, you know, the aggregate commitment of capital and, again, their relationship on the Mav side as well as the PHH side or the Aquin side of the house creates a terrific alignment of interests across the business. So, you know, we intend to work cooperatively built a great relationship with folks over at Oak Tree. We're excited about working with them going forward.
spk02: Got it. Very, very helpful. And then in terms of your origination volumes in the quarter, pretty substantial growth sequentially. Can you maybe talk a little bit about the drivers there?
spk04: Yeah. Our originations team is doing a terrific job. The enterprise sales model that we've put in place, which again allows us to sell the total portfolio of what we do. So bulk purchase of MSRs, using the agency co-delivery methods, the cash window, our correspondent channel, offering portfolio recapture services, offering subservicing, our special servicing capability. It's a very broad and comprehensive product set. Our enterprise sales team does a great job selling that. You can see we've tripled the number of sellers that we deal with in our flow and co-issue and correspondent program. And the team continues to ramp up, right? So we're targeting 450 for next year. And we're going to continue to expand products and introduce Ginnie Mae and OnQM and Jumbo and expand our services as well. So bringing in, you know, our best efforts delivery and non-delegated as well. So, you know, look, the enterprise sales model for us has just been terrific. You know, we've gotten bulk. We've gotten subservicing, new S&P sellers. it's really helped us build the originations platform. But look, we're not done. I think there's more opportunity here. And frankly, I think we're just scratching the surface. There's a lot of services and products we could bring into our originations channel that other competitors have today, and we don't. So we think there's an opportunity to enhance our competitive position here.
spk02: Got it. And last quick question here from me. Just looking at your earnings and profitability framework for 2021, Can you maybe just talk a little bit about what you see as the biggest growth drivers there, and then perhaps also frame where you might need to do a little bit more work to kind of attain these goals, if you will?
spk04: Yeah, so the biggest growth drivers are obviously on-book servicing, so building or rebuilding that MSR-owned MSR portfolio, and as well enhancing that by substantially building out our subservicing capabilities, our subservicing earnings contribution from Mav. So those are really the two drivers of what's gonna fuel the earnings performance of the business, and as I mentioned to Lee, it also, obviously the owned servicing has very strong cash flow dynamics, so that helps build the cash flow performance of the business, which then creates capital to reinvest in more MSRs, so it becomes kind of the flywheel effect as you begin to move the business forward. It's all about scaling up originations for us in terms of delivering that capability. Now, we are expecting to see a relatively robust bulk market. It has been very active so far in the first quarter. It was very active in the fourth quarter. We closed $15 billion of bulk transactions. We are seeing activity here in the first quarter. So, you know, continuing to expand our activities in the bulk market, kind of job one, right? So that helps us fill MAB and fill our books quickly. But we also want to continue to grow, you know, that correspondent seller base and grow our flow programs. Again, I think we're just scratching the surface. If you have a mature correspondent platform, you probably have 600 to 700 sellers, active sellers at any given point in time. And, again, we're only half of that, right? So, you know, scaling up the Originations team, scaling up our sales team, getting more feet on the street, getting out there, and being more present and visible in the market, expanding those products and services will really help us fuel the growth of the correspondent platform.
spk02: Got it. Thanks a lot, guys. I really appreciate your time.
spk04: Hey, thanks, Marco.
spk01: And we have reached the end of the question and answer session. And I'll now turn the call over to President and CEO Glenn Messina for closing remarks.
spk04: Thanks, Shamali. Hey, everyone. Thank you so much for taking the time to be on our business update call today. Again, I just couldn't be more energized about the opportunities we have in front of us for 21 and beyond. The whole Aquin team here has just been moving at an incredible pace to radically transform this business. and create a significant amount of opportunities ahead for us to grow and mature and expand our business. I'm grateful and appreciative to the team at Oak Tree who worked tirelessly with us as well through the strategic process and just very much appreciate their vote of confidence in the business and our leadership team. So thanks, everyone. I appreciate your support and look forward to talking to you at the end of the first quarter.
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