4/30/2025

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

If you would like to register a question during today's event, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Now I'd like to hand over to Chris Manuel, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Chris Manuel
Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you, Elliot, and welcome everyone to the OI Glass first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Our discussion today will be led by Gordon Hardy, our CEO, and John Hodrick, our CFO. Following prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session. Presentation materials for today's call are available on the company's website. Please review the Safe Harbor comments and disclosure of our use of non-GAAP financial measures included in those materials. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Gordon, who will start on slide three.

speaker
Gordon Hardy
Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in OIGlass. Today, we will walk you through our first quarter 2025 performance, key market trends, and outlook for the rest of the year. First, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all my colleagues at OI across the world for their efforts in this first quarter and for their agility and focus on driving the changes needed to turn OI around. Last night, we reported first quarter adjusted earnings of 40 cents per share, while down from last year, results significantly exceeded our plan due to stronger than anticipated sales volume and fit to win benefits. Market conditions have continued to gradually recover and our shipments increased by more than 4% compared to last year. Additionally, our fit to win program generated savings of $61 million, which was a significant contributor to our better than expected results. Strong demand and initiative benefits helped offset expected headwinds, including lower net price and scheduled temporary production curtailments. Looking at our business units, segment operating profit improved significantly in the Americas, reflecting healthier fundamentals and benefit from strategic initiatives. In Europe, results trended down, giving lower net price and temporary production downtime, which was partially mitigated by solid fit to win benefits. Overall, we are off to a strong start this year and are successfully managing the elements within our control. As such, we are reaffirming our full year 2025 guidance and expected adjusted earnings to improve between 50 and 85% from 2024. John will discuss our outlook further, including an initial view on how changing global trade policies could affect the business. In summary, then we are pleased with our year to date performance trend, despite some anticipated lag in Europe. and we aim to deliver robust financial performance throughout the year. Let's now turn to page four to discuss current market trends. Overall, conditions continued to gradually improve and our shipments were up 4.4% in the first quarter. Solid growth reflected some rebuilding of packaging inventories across the value chain, benefits from recent contract negotiations supported by multi-year cost improvement plans, and likely some advanced purchases ahead of new tariff policies. Shipments were up more than 4% across the Americas. Here we see inventory normalization overall, as well as more structural demand improvement in Latin America, together with the positive impact of some expanded contracts in North America. Volumes increased in nearly all markets, driven by a strong rebound in beer and spirits with solid growth in food. Volumes grew nearly 4% in Europe, driven by customer inventory rebuilding and some buying ahead of tariffs for export customers. As with the Americas, shipments increased in nearly all markets and categories, with most growth coming from beer, wine, as well as food. Currently, we are addressing excess capacity in Europe through temporary curtailments, and we are in consultation with the European and local works councils regarding long term restructuring actions. These efforts should improve our competitive position and support profitable growth. Shipment activity has been encouraging and our volumes are up about 3% year to date through April. Recently, we've seen some softer demand amid elevated uncertainty of new tariff policies, which may continue to impact near term shipments. As such, we are maintaining a cautious commercial outlook as well as our original sales volume guidance. We will reassess our 2025 sales volume outlook mid-year as trends evolve. Let's now turn to page five and discuss progress on our Fit to Win program, which aims to radically reduce total enterprise costs, as well as optimize our entire network and value chain to support future profitable growth. We generated $61 million in savings during the first quarter alone, which exceeded our initial plan. Momentum is building, and we are confident that we will achieve our targets of $250 million in 2025 and $650 million cumulatively by 2027. Phase A of our Fit to Win program is focused on reshaping our SG&A structure and initial network realignment to meet current market needs. Phase B seeks to fundamentally transform costs across the value chain, including the implementation of our total organization effectiveness program to optimize capacity within the system. Regarding phase A, we have now completed all actions required to secure our 100 million SG&A savings target in 2025. Initial network optimization actions are well underway, and we are confident that we will achieve our 2025 goal. Likewise, additional efforts are in progress to achieve our 2027 targets. We have also kicked off our phase B initiatives. As we look to transform our cost base, the team has already made initial progress across several procurement programs, as well as efforts to improve efficiency and reduce energy utilization. Finally, our total organization effectiveness program is ramping up nicely. We successfully completed the pilot implementation at our Tawana, Virginia plant, where we see significant performance improvements and lower inventory levels. Based on those results, we will begin the broader rollout starting in May 2025, which should be completed by the end of 2026. Importantly, many plants have initiated savings programs based on the TOE principles ahead of the formal rollout, generating early savings. In summary, Our fit to win program is delivering strong benefits, and we are making solid progress towards our savings target. We are confident in our ability to achieve our goals, enhance operational performance, and are well positioned for continued success throughout the year. I will now turn it over to John, who will review our first quarter performance and our 2025 outlook in more detail, starting on page six.

speaker
John Hodrick
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Gordon, and good morning, everyone. OI reported first quarter adjusted earnings of 40 cents per share, while down from last year. Results surpassed management's expectations due to stronger than anticipated sales volume growth and higher fit-to-win benefits. As you can see on the left, adjusted earnings was down modestly from the prior year. Single-digit sales volume growth and significant fit-to-win benefits mostly offset anticipated headwinds, including lower net price and ongoing temporary production curtailments to reduce inventory. Looking to the right, segment operating profit was up in the Americas, but down in Europe. Results improved significantly in the Americas, reflecting strong demand, stable net price amid tight capacity, and around $27 million of fit-to-win benefits. Consistent with our expectations, earnings were down in Europe. While sales volume was up nearly 4%, net price was ahead, reflecting competitive pressures and excess capacity. We did incur about $58 million of unabsorbed fixed costs as we curtailed significant capacity to draw down inventories, which was partially offset by $20 million of fit to win benefits as well as other savings. Importantly, results should improve in the second half of the year as inventory reduction activities moderate and we generate greater initiative benefits following current restructuring actions. As we focus on economic profit, we have made very good progress on reducing inventory across the enterprise, which is down around $225 million from the same time last year. Furthermore, we are on track to meet or be below our year in 2025 target of less than 50 days IDS. In summary, we're off to a strong start this year. Despite some headwinds, results exceeded our expectations heading in the quarter, and we are well positioned for continued success throughout the year. Let's turn to page seven and discuss our business outlook. We are reaffirming our full year 2025 guidance. Adjusted earnings should range between $1.20 and $1.50 per share, which represents a 50% to 85% improvement from fiscal year 2024. Significantly higher adjusted earnings should reflect ongoing efforts to enhance our operational performance, reduce costs, and capture market opportunities. Likewise, we expect a significant rebound in free cash flow boosted by strong operating performance improvement and lower capex investment requirements. We have also provided a directional sense of how our annual earnings will unfold by quarter. Based on a strong start to the year, our full year performance is currently tracking towards the high end of our earnings guidance range. However, we are maintaining our original business outlook given the uncertainty related to new tariff policies, which we will discuss further as we turn to page eight. Changes in global trade policies will likely be disruptive in the short term and may create both new challenges and opportunities which cannot be fully determined at this stage. As illustrated in the chart, about 14% of our global sales volume crosses the border between the U.S. and other nations. This includes both empty and filled bottles. We estimate that only 4.5% is currently exposed to new tariffs. This primarily relates to imports of filled containers from Europe, while most cross-border sales between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada are exempt under the USMCA treaty. As such, we face a limited direct tariff exposure so far. The bigger unknown is how elevated market uncertainty may impact the consumer and demand elasticity. While we face a few challenges, there are potential opportunities Glass is a local business, and around 85% of the value chain is within 300 miles of the plant, so we do not rely on a global supply chain, which is more exposed to tariffs. Favorable substrate dynamics may emerge, as there are currently sector-specific tariffs on aluminum. Likewise, domestic glass production is now significantly more competitive compared to imports from China, given new tariffs. Next, OI has the the largest class network in the US, so we are well positioned to take advantage of opportunities that emerge, especially if consumption shifts to more domestic products over time. Finally, policy changes have already led to sizable shifts in currency exchange rates that are helping improve earnings translation. Naturally, we are working with our partners in the value chain to mitigate risk and capture opportunities. Overall, we continue to believe our best long-term strategy is to improve the competitive position of the company through fit to win. Now I'll turn it back to Gordon, who will conclude our discussion on page nine.

speaker
Gordon Hardy
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, John. In conclusion, OI is well positioned for a strong year ahead. We are off to a fast start. We expect our performance and earnings in 2025 will rebound from prior year levels as we implement our fit to win initiatives. While changes in the global trade policies create uncertainties, We are executing our long-term value creation roadmap as illustrated on the right and discussed at length during last month's investor day. Importantly, these actions are largely within our control. We are confident in our ability to achieve our goals, deliver strong future financial performance and create shareholder value. Thank you for your attention and we look forward to taking your questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask a question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. And today, we ask you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our first question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
George Staphos
Analyst, Bank of America

Thanks very much, everyone. Good morning. Thank you for the details. Good morning. I guess the question I have to start is can you talk a bit about any pre-buy effects you sort of touched on within your, you know, what kind of volume effect might that be that has to reverse itself in the back half of the year or whenever? And then overall, can you talk a little bit about some of the work you're doing on TOE and TOANO and elsewhere and why that supports your overall fit to win goals. So pre-buy and then TOEI and what you're seeing in Toronto. Thank you.

speaker
John Hodrick
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, George, thanks for the question. I'll kick things off. This is John. On the pre-buy point, as included in our comments, you know, sales volume was up 4.4% in the first quarter. We actually saw probably a fairly limited amount of that. It was not the driver of the stronger volume in the quarter. And in fact, what we had seen is that our sales volumes were actually stronger in January and February, but they were still up in March. So we believe that maybe some of the strength in March was there. So if, in other words, if, if vine was a six sensor, so benefit in the quarter, maybe there was a penny or two in there associated with pre-buying, but it was not the driver of the, of the stronger volume in the quarter.

speaker
George Staphos
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. Hey, John, just sort of what kind of, Hey, Hey Gordon. Just quickly, April, you said soften. So are we looking at negative volumes to get to a year-to-date growth rate of 3% from up four or just maybe another kind of detail there?

speaker
John Hodrick
Chief Financial Officer

What I would say is while that's not our base case view, we are remaining cautious in the commercial outlook. So we are maintaining our full year view of stable volume over for the year on a year-over-year basis. Uh, so kind of flash overall for the year, but again, that's that's out of abundance of caution on just the uncertainty on tariffs. It's certainly not the direction we hope things go. And in April, just to give you a little bit of color, adjusted for Easter, vines were down about 1 or 2%. It wasn't a significant decline. Vines were up in the America's low single digit. Again, that remains healthy. And our business really isn't exposed to tariffs there. But we did see a little bit of decline in Europe, and it was primarily in use categories and markets. that we know are exposed to exports, considering that about 40% of what we make in Europe ultimately gets exported. It was kind of the wines and the spirits categories that we saw a little bit of slothness in April.

speaker
Gordon Hardy
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Yeah. George, we'll update you as we get more visibility in this quarter, and we'll update at the half year. Uh, with regard to the second part of your question to you, we, and to honor, um, you know, as we, as we outlined, I think in, in July and October, there, there is a, there's a process that we, we put each of the plants through, uh, in that there are performance opportunities identified. Um, and, and then we, we go and execute, uh, against those, um, those opportunities. Um, in Tawana, we have a very clear line of size to a hundred percent of the opportunities we identified. Um, and we've established, you know, the, the, the, the metrics, the, the operating system, um, uh, you know, validated, um, some of our, some of our hypothesis, which have come out strongly. I know we will, we will begin the rollout across the whole fleet in, in waves. And that's a very structured kind of disciplined approach over the next 15 to 18 months. So we're very happy with the outcome of Tawana. And, you know, we expect similar results, you know, as we roll out the program across the whole fleet.

speaker
George Staphos
Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you, Gordon. I just imagine because Tawana is one of your better plans over the years. But I'll turn it over. Thanks very much. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

We now turn to Michael Roxland with Truist Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Michael Roxland
Analyst, Truist Securities

Thank you, Gordon, John, and Chris, for taking my questions, and congrats on all the progress and a nice quarter. Thanks, Michael. Thank you. My first question is just on a follow-up to what George was asking about stricter volumes. Can you give us a sense, just in terms of the volume progress that you're seeing by end market, whether it be wine, spirits, beer, NABs? I just want to get a sense of the growth or the headwinds that you may be encountering in some of those end markets. And where do order books stand currently? So any outlets you can share with respect to early read on May, for instance?

speaker
Gordon Hardy
Chief Executive Officer

Sure, Michael. I'll take that question. So in both the Americas and Europe, we saw strong volumes in the first quarter. And literally, it was across most categories in each of the regions. So in the Americas, for example, beer up close to 4%, food performing strongly, high single digits. Spirits in the Americas actually had a very strong quarter, you know, up double digits for us, as had, you know, RTDs. So overall, you know, strong volume growth in the Americas, you know, strong demand, tight capacity. In Europe, you know, beer performed very strongly in the quarter. Non-alcoholic beverages also performed strongly, up high single digits for us. food up mid single digits, wine, you know, a bit of a comeback in low single digits in Europe. Spirits were off in Europe, off mid single digits, and RTDs, which is a much smaller category in Europe, was also slightly off. So all in all, you know, we see kind of green shoots in a lot of the categories, in a lot of the geography things coming back. you know, order books at this stage are good. You know, there's certainly uncertainty out there regarding, you know, where all this tariff discussions are going to play out. And that is causing, you know, consumer uncertainty as well. So I think this quarter will be telling to see where everything lands. And yeah, that's our view at the moment. As I said, as we look to the end of the year, we're We're sticking with our initial thinking at the start that it would be stable over the year. There may be, you know, a few bumps, you know, here and there, but overall off to a strong start.

speaker
Michael Roxland
Analyst, Truist Securities

That's a great word. Thank you for all the color. And just, you know, one quick follow-up. You're looking to streamline your French operations given the slowdown in wine. Now, is that a structural issue just related to French wines? Is that a structural issue for all wines? Does it relate to more mainstream wine brands versus, let's say, you know, premium products in terms of, you know, I say premium products, but meaning like top regions, top brands. So just trying to get a sense of what you're trying to do with your French operations and really what the driver is there in terms of the realignment.

speaker
Gordon Hardy
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, look, overall, it's fitting assets to market opportunities. As I said, we're looking now at the portfolio in terms of two streams, mainstream and premium. We see tremendous opportunities in premium across wine, across spirits in France. And so some of this is the realignment of the footprint to get ourselves ready to expand into premium as we go forward. And of course, we continue to invest strongly in France. We have a big investment in Agencourt, which has gone live and is delivering to expectations. We're very happy with it. And we will continue to invest in France, which is a key market for wines and spirits, particularly wines and spirits. Um, you know, longer term, you know, wine, particularly, you know, economy wines have, have suffered some impact, um, you know, across the whole market. Um, but I think if you look through the cycle over the long term, uh, you know, premium and super premium wine, premium spirits, super premium spirits, uh, will, will continue to, to perform, uh, to perform strongly. Uh, and that really is looking at the footprint and making sure we're set up properly for that. as we execute on what we laid out in our IDEA, you know, our best of both strategy, being the lowest cost producer in mainstream and best cost producer in premium. So that really is the context for the operations review across Europe.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Our next question comes from Joshua Spector with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Anuja Shastriya
Analyst, UBS (sitting in for Joshua Spector)

Anuja Shastriya, Oh hi this morning, good morning it's Anuja Shah sitting in for Josh. On slide eight you mentioned tariffs on aluminum as an opportunity, one of the opportunities of tariffs. Anuja Shastriya, Have you seen signs of this yet with customers where this could potentially be a benefit, like maybe you're having introductory conversations about substrates or just any color on what you're seeing there and how you think it might benefit you.

speaker
John Hodrick
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, just for some clarity there, you know, if you go back to our investor day, we did profile that, you know, that overall glass containers in North America are at a higher cost than aluminum. You know, that's 25 to 30% kind of differential. And we believe if that goes to 15% or lower, historically, we've seen shifts over to glass. And Michael Prast- And we believe that that the difference on on the aluminum Tara side could could you know impact that call it 510 percentage points against that 25 to 30. Michael Prast- percent premium, so it could help I think it's a little early you know some of these things are supply chain related they're filling related they are. Patrick Corbett, You know contractually related, so I would say, you know just as we look at the. Patrick Corbett, You know back to the prepare comments, you know the challenges, you know will probably some see some of the broader market related areas, probably over the shorter to medium term. Patrick Corbett, And the opportunity section that we show on page eight is probably something that unfolds a little bit more over time, and what we're seeing anyway yeah.

speaker
Gordon Hardy
Chief Executive Officer

James Meeker, Just an add to that. James Meeker, You know, obviously if if. there's increases in price in aluminum that helps close the gap a bit. But that's not a controllable for us. And so what we're focused on is getting our cost base into a position that we close the gap very significantly to cans and become more competitive to cans, particularly in North America, driving those elements that are within our control. And that really is our primary focus. you know, tariffs for us is an uncontrollable, and while it may help us, you know, over a short, medium-term period, it's not something we wish to rely on as we get fit.

speaker
Anuja Shastriya
Analyst, UBS (sitting in for Joshua Spector)

Great. Thank you. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

We now turn to Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Anthony Pettinari
Analyst, Citi

Good morning. In Europe, you have year-over-year headwinds for net price and then operating costs with the curtailments in 1Q. As you envision the year, can you talk about maybe the cadence of how you'd expect those headwinds to trend and ultimately inflect over the four quarters of the year?

speaker
John Hodrick
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Anthony, this is John. I'll take that one. As we take a look at net price for the business, it will be front and loaded this year. So you saw the $37 million impact in the quarter. It should be less than that in the second quarter and then be a relatively minor headwind for the business in the back half of the year. That's primarily because Last year, we had started to see a little bit of pricing pressure in the marketplace in the back half of last year. So we're going to comp that. So that will show a year over year moderation in that pressure point. And then when it comes to that, curtailment costs, we believe that also is going to be front-end loaded. We're trying to bring our inventories down to 50 days or lower. We're making good progress on that. If you take a look at just the calculations and everything on a year-over-year basis, you know, the operating cost impact of that peaks in the first quarter, will have some negative impact in the second quarter, not to the same degree in the first quarter. And by the back half of the year, on a year-over-year basis, that's going to be a strong year-over-year headwinds against, obviously, weaker comps in the prior year. So hopefully that gives you the cadence that you're looking for.

speaker
Anthony Pettinari
Analyst, Citi

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. You talked about you know, tariff impacts and competitive intensity with aluminum, which I guess is maybe too soon to tell. But in the U.S., can you talk about how, you know, fewer Chinese bottles, fewer Chinese imports, how you're seeing that impact the market this year?

speaker
Gordon Hardy
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we're currently we're not seeing a lot of impact because there does seem to have been quite a bit of pre-buying by importers. and distributors. So we see there's a fair bit of stock in the market. Obviously, you know, buyers may also look to see if there are other cheaper import markets such as India. But so at the moment, we're not seeing a huge, huge impact, Anthony.

speaker
John Hodrick
Chief Financial Officer

One thing I would add, Anthony, is just if we take a look at those opportunity sections in that tariff, if those emerge, those are kind of upsides to our baseline view of the business. So, you know, those are opportunities that are not factored into our current outlook at all.

speaker
Anthony Pettinari
Analyst, Citi

Got it. Got it. And do you think those inventories potentially they run down by the summer? Is it a few months or a few quarters or?

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

any framing there yeah i would imagine by the end of the summer i would imagine by the end of the summer got it got it i'll turn it over as a reminder if you'd like to ask a question please press star 1 on your telephone keypad now we now turn to arun vishwanathan with rbc capital markets your line is open please go ahead great um thanks uh

speaker
Arun Vishwanathan
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks for taking my question. So just congrats on the strong progress thus far. I guess maybe you can just review what you're hearing from some of your customers on the spirits side in North America. I know there's been some volatility there. I mean, I guess globally as well. That'd be helpful. Thanks.

speaker
Gordon Hardy
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. You know, as we, um, you know, as we work through these, these kind of uncertain times, obviously we're staying as close as we can to, to customers and working with them on maybe different scenarios and, you know, how we position capacity. And, um, you know, I think there's a bit of a wait and see, uh, you know, over the, over the next 60 days now. Um, um, and I, I think there has been, you know, last year, maybe some, some shifting of product into, into. different markets, and we saw a bit of that in January. But no big structural decisions about unshoring capacity or unshoring bottling, for example, from Europe. People are talking about it, but no actual moves on that, and neither do we see moves currently from the US into Europe. So I think we're very much in a wait-and-see period. And some of these decisions, once you make them, you're long on that decision. And then if, you know, tariff policies change, you know, people can be caught out of the position. So I think it's very much a wait-and-see at the moment, Jerome.

speaker
John Hodrick
Chief Financial Officer

The one thing I would add on that, what we had seen last year is that at that the spirits activity you know they were drawing down inventories and i think we've seen some normalization of that in fact our our volumes in the first quarter and spirits were actually pretty good because people are beyond past that destocking phase and now we're going into the uh obviously the uncertainty with tariffs thanks john um yeah and and i guess i also had some questions on the raw side um maybe just give us some thoughts on how you're thinking about

speaker
Arun Vishwanathan
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Mike SanClements, Your energy hedges as it relates to natural gas, as well as potentially you know your sourcing of call it and so to ask if there's any anything we need to be mindful of on on that side thanks.

speaker
John Hodrick
Chief Financial Officer

Mike SanClements, yeah i'll address the energy component of it so. It just as background, we have very favorable energy, long term contracts that we set before the Russia Ukraine war. We've been benefiting from that. We're highly covered and contracted through through the balance of the year. So, as it stands for this year, we're in very good shape when it comes to energy. Now, going into next year, 26 and beyond, we have been layering in over time some of our positions and contracts for the future. We take a multi-year view on that. Now, at the same token, some of those prices had peaked up at the beginning of the year, so we're being judicious about that. What I would point you back to, Arun, is back to our investor day about a month ago, we kind of gave a longer-term view from our bridge from today, or at the end of 24, to 2027, where we're going to $1.45 billion of EBITDA. Included in that outlook was our expected headwind for resetting of those long-term energy contracts. And I would say that that view still holds. So I think you can look back at that energy markets, I think it's still an appropriate outlook.

speaker
Gordon Hardy
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. And with regard to raw materials, generally, you know, as we've laid out as part of our strategy, you know, is a value chain approach. So working differently, both with customers on the front end, but also working differently with suppliers on the back end. And doing so in a way that, you know, strips waste and inefficiency out of that part of the chain. We're working very well with our key suppliers. There's tremendous focus on productivity plans. And so we're very happy with the progress we're making there and in managing that area of the value chain and the cost base far more tightly than heretofore. So we feel we're in good shape there.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

As another reminder, if you'd like to ask any follow-up questions, please press star 1 on the telephone keyboard now. We now turn to Gabe Hatch with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Gabe Hatch
Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities

Gordon, John, Chris, good morning. Thanks for taking the question.

speaker
Anthony Pettinari
Analyst, Citi

Hey, how are you?

speaker
Gabe Hatch
Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities

Hi, Gabe. Well, I joined a moment late, so I apologize if you guys addressed this. I didn't see you call out any sort of – in the Americas. So, A, confirm that. B, I think I heard the word tightish across the production system. Is that true across the specific geographies, U.S., Mexico, and Brazil? And then maybe what are you seeing? I know we're going into the winter months, but any discussion with your customers in terms of kind of cadence for the back half of the year?

speaker
John Hodrick
Chief Financial Officer

TAB, Mark McIntyre:" That can take the first part of that you did here right is yeah yeah okay sure the you did here right overall there were no curtailments of any consequence in the Americas, all the way from Canada down to Brazil we're very, very balanced in the in that particular marketplace. Certainly, we will continue to seek through GOE going forward opportunities to improve capacity utilization, but we've done most of the heavy lifting of the initial network optimizations in the Americas. And as I mentioned before, we continue in Europe, but we hope by mid-year, maybe the later part of summer, we'll be on the worst of the temporary curtailment activities.

speaker
Gordon Hardy
Chief Executive Officer

And, you know, the outlook for the rest of the year, I think, is largely more the same in the Americas. You know, the demand is good, capacity is tight, you know, pricing stable. And, you know, we expect that to kind of run through probably to the end of the year in those geographies for sure.

speaker
Gabe Hatch
Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. And then, John, I think you kind of mentioned, and I fully appreciate being cautious and pragmatic here given the macro, but kind of if we were to free things today, tracking towards the upper end of the range based on kind of what you expect through the first half. I also know that you guys have talked about trying to reduce the volatility in earnings and produce closer to sell, maybe not hang on to as much inventory. I think I know Gordon has talked about that. The Q4 guide, is that where we would see the big swing factor? And I think you also just mentioned not taking as many curtailments in the fourth quarter. So is that the big swing factor and unknown as we sit today that could dictate higher end of the range, lower end of the range? Because it seems like you guys got some visibility into Q2, Q3.

speaker
John Hodrick
Chief Financial Officer

I think it's a fair observation, Gabe. The fourth quarter, as you took a look at that pie chart, is the weakest quarter from a quarterly earnings standpoint. It is also the seasonally slowest period for our business, given just the seasonality of our business and being predominantly northern hemisphere. But if there's an opportunity, I think there is, again, line of sight is better in the second and third quarter. and a little bit more cautious in the fourth quarter. Of course, the fourth quarter is also an active period. Sometimes you do more maintenance, sometimes you don't, depending on the activity. And I would also say, you know, our earnings are very sensitive to tax rates, especially in those softer periods and seasonally softer periods. So that could also be a swing factor, too. So to the degree that we're at the higher end of the range, you know, and the tariff challenges don't manifest themselves to materially impact the business, I think you could see the fourth quarter being a little bit better.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

As a final reminder, if you'd like to ask another question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad now. We have no further questions. I'll now hand back to Chris Manuel for any final remarks.

speaker
Chris Manuel
Vice President of Investor Relations

Thanks, Elliot. That concludes our earnings call. Please note, our second quarter call is currently scheduled for Wednesday, July 30th. And as a reminder, make it a memorable moment by choosing safe, sustainable glass. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, today's call is now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

Q1OI 2025

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