O-I Glass, Inc.

Hello everyone and thank you for joining the OIGlass second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Lucy and I'll be coordinating your call today. During the presentation you can register a question by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind please press star followed by two. We currently ask all participants to limit their questions to one main and one follow-up and re-queue for any further questions. It is now my pleasure to hand over to your host Chris Manuel. Vice President of Investor Relations to begin. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Lucy, and welcome everyone to the OI Glass second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Our discussion today will be led by Gordon Hardy, our CEO, and John Hodrick, our CFO. Following prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session. Presentation materials for this earnings call are available on the company's website. Please review the Safe Harbor comments and disclosure of our use of non-GAAP financial measures included in those materials. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Gordon who will start in slide three.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in OI Glass. Today, we will walk you through our second quarter performance, key market dynamics, and our outlook for the remainder of the year. Let me begin by expressing my thanks to all our colleagues across OI. Your dedication, agility and focus are instrumental in driving the transformation we are undertaking. Last night, we reported second quarter adjusted earnings of 53 cents per share, exceeding our plans and outperforming the same period last year. This result reflects the meaningful progress we are making towards a leaner and more competitive company. We continue to navigate a complex environment, including softer consumer demand in certain markets, and many macro uncertainties. While overall second quarter shipments declined approximately 3%, performance varied by region as volumes increased in the Americas but declined in Europe. On a year to date basis, shipments were up nearly 1% and we continue to expect full year 2025 volumes will be stable with last year. Our fit to win program is delivering strong results. We achieved $84 million in savings this quarter, bringing our first half total to $145 million, well on track to meet or exceed our $250 million target for 2025. Fit2Win is foundational to renewed competitiveness by significantly reducing total enterprise costs to improve performance and enable future growth. We've had a strong start to the year in difficult market conditions and are effectively managing the factors within our control. As a result, we are raising our full year guidance and now expect adjusted earnings to increase between 60% and 90% compared to 2024. John will provide more detail on our outlook and quarterly performance shortly. As announced last evening, following a comprehensive review, we have made the financially prudent decision to halt further magma development and operations. While the earlier stages developed meaningful technical advancement, we have concluded the platform does not have the pathway to the operational or financial return requirements as most recently detailed at our March Investor Day. Through our best at both operations strategy, as outlined at our I-Day, We expect to drive significantly higher premium output at lower operating costs and capital intensity than Magma would have realized in the coming years. This decision aligns on our focus on driving competitiveness and economic profit. Accordingly, we intend to reconfigure our Bowling Green facility into a best cost premium focused operation. We are confident this is the right path forward for our business, our customers and our shareholders. Let's now turn to page four to review recent market trends. Overall, our shipments for the first half of 2025 were up nearly 1% compared to the prior year. Volumes increased mid-single digits in the first quarter, but declined approximately 3% in the second quarter. Lower glass shipments are consistent with software consumer offtake, which is down low to mid-single digits in mainly European markets, amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Unseasonal weather this spring and summer across the Northern Hemisphere further impacted consumption patterns. Finally, we have started to exit some business with unfavorable economic profit, consistent with our disciplined approach. Despite recent softness, we have also had some notable wins as we leverage fit to win to drive future profitable growth. Likewise, we have seen a 35% increase in our new product development pipeline as brand owners look to spur growth. As previously noted, we are navigating mixed market conditions. Second quarter shipments increased in the Americas, but softened in Europe. In the Americas, shipments were up approximately 4% in both the second quarter and year to date, driven by solid rebound in beer and spirits categories. Notably, both Andean and North American regions outperformed the segment average, with all geographies reporting positive growth despite continued soft consumption patterns, especially in the US. As we embed Fit2Win, we see our competitiveness improving in key markets, especially in North America. In Europe, volumes were down 3% year-to-date and down nearly 9% in the second quarter. which we attribute to the following factors. About three percentage points were due to a supplier-related delay at a major plant reconfiguration project in Europe, which is now ramping up well. We estimate another 3% of the decline was timing-related as increased beer and wine sales in the first quarter, likely in response to trade policy uncertainty, negatively impacted Q2 shipments. And finally, the balance of the decline pertain to macroeconomic uncertainty and unfavorable weather conditions, which is in line or favorable to broader consumption trends. Despite these challenges, there were bright spots as non-alcoholic beverages and food categories posted low single digit growth. To align supply with demand and manage inventory levels, Temporary production containers remain in place across Europe with a continuing drag on our operating costs there. We remain engaged in consultations with European and local works councils on long term network optimization initiatives aimed at addressing excess capacity in the fleet. These actions, when finalized, are expected to strengthen our competitive position and support sustainable, profitable growth in Europe. In July, our global shipments were down mid-single digits compared to July of last year, reflecting continued soft conditions plus the re-phasing of some specific customer order activity and the delayed ramp-up of a reconfiguration project at a European plant. We continue to expect full-year 2025 volumes to be in line with the prior year, as shipment levels are projected to be stable across both the Americas and Europe. This outlook holds despite some intra quarter fluctuations, which are primarily driven by comparisons to prior year performance. Let's now turn to page five and review the progress of our fit to win program, which is focused on significantly reducing total enterprise costs by while optimizing our network and value chain to drive competitiveness and growth. In the second quarter, we delivered 84 million in savings bringing our first half total to $145 million, surpassing our initial plans. With momentum building, we remain confident in achieving our 2025 savings target of at least $250 million and at least $650 million cumulatively by 2027. Phase A centers on reshaping our SG&A structure and initial network optimization actions, and we remain on track to meet both our one-year and three-year goals. We have completed actions to secure our 100 million SG&A savings target for 2025, with more opportunity underway to drive additional savings next year. Importantly, our network optimization efforts continue to progress, including the recently announced actions in the Americas. We continue to expect initial network optimization activities will be completed by mid-2026. Phase B focuses on transforming costs across the value chain, including the rollout of our total organization effectiveness program to optimize system wide capacity. Following a successful pilot at the Tawana plant, the first wave of 15 facilities is nearing completion of the same rigorous process. Results are meeting or exceeding our expectations. Additionally, our cost transformation team is making meaningful progress in procurement and energy reduction initiatives. These efforts are contributing significantly to our overall savings and enhancing operational resilience. We are making significant progress on the end-to-end value chain efficiencies with a number of significant agreements made with strategic suppliers to improve productivity and competitiveness over the next three years. In summary, momentum is building and initial fit-to-win benefits have exceeded our expectations. We are on track to meet or exceed our 2025 objectives and unlock further upside in the years ahead. Now, I will turn it over to John, who will walk you through the second quarter performance and updated 2025 outlook, beginning on page six.

Thanks, Gordon, and good morning, everyone. OI reported second quarter adjusted earnings of 53 cents per share, exceeding both our expectations and prior year results. The performance was primarily driven by strong contributions from our fit-to-win program and improved competitiveness. As shown on the left, adjusted earnings surpassed last year's figures. We faced expected headwinds from lower net price, lower sales volumes, and temporary production curtailments. Yet, these factors were more than offset by substantial fit-to-win savings and favorable below-the-line items, including a moderately better-than-expected tax rate supported by favorable regional earnings mix. Looking to the right, segment operating profit increased in the Americas, but declined in Europe. In the Americas, segment operating profit improved significantly, reflecting notably lower cost due to fit-to-win benefits, higher shipments, and fairly stable net price amid tight capacity utilization. In Europe, segment operating profit declined due to lower net price and softer sales volumes. Operating costs rose slightly due to the impact of ongoing production curtailments, but these were largely offset by fit-to-win savings. We expect performance in the region to improve progressively as our downtime decreases, network optimization actions deliver a better cost position, and our cost competitiveness improves. As part of our focus on economic profit, we've made meaningful progress in reducing inventories across the enterprise, down approximately $160 million compared to the same period last year. We remain on track to meet or potentially beat our year-end 2025 target of fewer than 50 days of inventory supply. In summary, second quarter results exceeded both our plans and prior year levels, positioning us well for continued success through the rest of 2025. Now let's turn to page 7 to review our business outlook. Given our strong year-to-date performance and momentum of the Fit to Win program, we have raised our full year 2025 guidance. We now expect adjusted earnings to range between $1.30 and $1.55 per share, representing a 60% to 90% improvement over fiscal year 2024. We also anticipate about a $300 million year-over-year improvement in free cash flow, driven by stronger operating results, reduced capital expenditures, and lower inventories, despite $140 to $150 million in cash restructuring costs. Additionally, we've refined our expectations for the quarterly cadence of earnings throughout the year. As you can see, we expect the third quarter will be generally consistent with trends noted in the first half of the year. Fourth quarter will be softer due to the typical seasonality of our business and the tax impact of lower earnings levels. Please note that our outlook may not fully account for potential volatility stemming from evolving global trade policies and other external factors. For more details, please refer to the appendix, which outlines the assumptions behind our updated guidance. Despite a soft macro environment, we are executing well and our self-help efforts are exceeding original expectations. As such, we are increasing our full-year earnings guidance. Now I'll turn it back to Gordon to conclude on page 8.

Thanks, John. In closing, OI is executing well and delivered a strong first half of 2025. Despite mixed market conditions and sluggish demand, we remain sharply focused on what we can control and are making excellent progress on all self-help fronts. We expect a meaningful rebound in performance, adjusted earnings and cash flow this year and have increased our full year guidance accordingly. Executing fit to win and our long-term value creation roadmap, as illustrated on the right and discussed in detail during our March Investor Day, positions us well for the future. Importantly, these initiatives are largely within our control. As we continue to execute our strategy, we are confident in our ability to meet our goals, including radically reducing the cost base, building a more premium business portfolio and driving economic profit. This should deliver strong financial results, including sustainably higher EBITDA and create long-term value for our shareholders. Thank you for your attention. We look forward to your questions.

If you ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. We kindly ask all participants to limit their questions to one main and one follow-up question and re-queue for any further questions. The first comes from Gansham Panjabi of Baird. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys. Good morning. Congrats on all the cost of progress. I guess, you know, first off, in terms of your volume assumptions for 2025, how does that break out by segment? You know, I guess I'm just curious as to your confidence as it relates to being able to hit flat volumes and, you know, just given the uncertainty, et cetera, at this point.

I could kick off on that one, Gancham. Overall, if we take a look at our segments, as we indicated, we believe both Europe and the Americas will be generally stable year over year. So in the first half of the year, you saw a stronger Americas and a little bit softer Europe. We expect that to maybe kind of invert in the back half of the year, but it's only due to comps. Overall, what we're seeing over the course of the year is a generally stable environment with maybe the exceptions of some disruption due to the capital project that Gordon talked about. as well as maybe some fluctuation we saw between first and second quarter associated with tariff concerns or uncertainties and trying to buy ahead. Other than that, if you take out the noise of kind of prior year comps and things like that, you're looking at a pretty stable environment.

Okay, got it. And then my second question, as it relates to the Bowling Green plant, what exactly is that going to be pivoted towards? What is the timeline associated with that? And what is the cash cost, this rough cash cost as it relates to making that uh, transition at that point?

Yeah. So, um, that's that facility is, is focused really on, on premium, uh, opportunities in, in spirits, um, in, in the U S and we still see a big opportunity in the, in that category and those segments of the market. So, um, you know, Magnum was, was conceived, you know, to deliver against premium. And when we look at, you know, our best at both strategy, um, and we, we look at, you know, the cost we feel we would need to be, uh, to, to really grow significantly or, or premium volume and the capital intensity we required to delete delivery. Um, you know, the target economic profit, that was the right call for us. And we see a path to being able to reconfigure that plan to get lower operational costs, lower capital intensity. And to really grow the premium business in the US. We're working on that reconfiguration as we speak. And at the next earnings call, we'll give a further update on that Ganshon. But that's our focus for that facility right now.

You know, on the cost side, Gancham, that the facility does have invested capital around the superstructure, around legacy assets and things like that, which obviously can be utilized in this. But I think it's a little early to be able to give any specifics there.

Yeah. But Gancham, you know, as we've laid out in the past, you know, every project we undertake will have to be able to deliver a WAC plus two minimum return for us going forward.

In one final point, I want to reiterate that the outlook that we provided during I-Day about the outlook for the business as well as the capital investment in the business still holds. We're going to fit this in within that. We're not going to change at this point in time our CapEx outlook for the business.

Okay, perfect. Thanks so much.

The next question comes from Aaron Fiswanathan of RBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

for taking my question. Just wanted to ask about the fit to win benefits. So you were able to accelerate those from 61 to 84 million in Q2. Looks like you are guiding to 250 million plus now and then 650 million plus in long term. So maybe you can just frame the upside opportunity there. Are you guys finding more as you peel back the layers a little bit more? And would those be mainly in SG&A? I guess related to this point, the corporate costs were also a little bit lower this quarter at, I think, 25. Is that the new level of corporate that we should kind of consider, or was there something unusual in there? Is that really reflective of those lower SG&A costs? Thanks.

Yeah. Well, I'll take the first part of that question, Aaron. You know, as we've laid out over the last year or so, you know, Fit2Win is designed to review the cost base of the business across the entire value chain, you know, from, from the backend of our suppliers, right through to, you know, our customers warehouse. Um, and we've been systematically working through the value chain, um, and, you know, peeling back, you know, where all the costs are, where the waste is, where the inefficiencies, what's driving that. And, and at every part of the chain, as we suspected and as our thesis held, there's opportunities to get more efficient and to strip out waste. That means us working differently with suppliers and with customers, and likewise, they're changing some of the ways we work, but we're making tremendous progress on that and have already signed a number of agreements with suppliers that drive much greater productivity and competitiveness for us. Within the you know, within our own footprint, we we shared the results of Tawana on previous calls and made great progress there. And we are now in the first wave of 15 plants being rolled out. That's about 60, 65% through that program for those plants. And we're we're on or exceeding the targets we had set. So so very happy with with how that is going. And then as we sit with customers and we look for ways to improve order forecast accuracy, logistics, warehousing, again, working through all of that and finding opportunities. So as we set out at the beginning, this is an end-to-end review of the cost base of the business and stripping out the waste and inefficiencies. And then reinvesting some of that back into the business or using that to, you know, to be more competitive in the market, which, you know, we're already seeing signs of, you know, particularly in the Americas.

You know, to build on that and to answer your other corporate question, Arun, if you look at page five, the outperformance that we're seeing really is in the phase B area. As to Gordon's point, you know, we're already above our full year target for that area and Just building off of that and taking out those productivity and efficiency opportunities and actually jumping ahead of the actual full rollout of the TOE project is driving the upside opportunities that we're seeing across the business. And to that, the corporate levels we would expect to be a reasonable range is $100 to $120 million a year is a logical place for the corporate cost.

Great, thanks. And then if I could just ask a quick follow-up. So then as you look out into, I guess, the second half into next year, again, you're already at 145 for the first half. So should we also assume that fit-to-win benefits should continue to grow, or is the second half kind of, have you already kind of gotten what you, you know, more than 50% of the year's benefits, or do you still see continued sequential growth in those benefits?

I think we'll see sequential growth, but keep in mind in the fourth quarter, we will start to lap the early phases of the activities. And as you can see on the chart on page five, we had $25 million of benefits already in the fourth quarter. So while the core activity continues to drive momentum, there'll be a little bit of a comp element to the fourth quarter.

Yeah. I would say culturally as well, Arun, you know, we are relentless on waste and inefficiency coming out of the business. So even if we hit a number, there's no satisfaction in that. We drive on as long as there's waste and efficiency, you know, to be had where we're going after it.

Great. Thanks a lot.

All right. The next question comes from Mike Roxland of Truist Securities. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Yeah, thank you, Gordon, John, Chris, for taking my questions, and congrats on all the progress. Thank you, Mike. Gordon, you mentioned that in your comments that shipments were weaker in July, and you cited re-phasing of order activity and delayed ramp up at a configurated plant. Do you have any sense what your order books look like for, for August?

Um, yeah, look, we, we have line of sight. Um, you know, I, I think the Americas are looking pretty strong and we're seeing some, some come back in, you know, places like, um, you know, Northern Europe, uh, and in the UK. Um, and as John mentioned, you know, we, we see Europe probably stabilizing in the, in the second half of the year. There is still, you know, significant consumer weakness in all of the regions, probably except for Latin America. But, you know, whether it's wine or beer in Europe, spirits in Europe, you know, still down, you know, compared to long run averages in last year. Driven, you know, spirits and say wines driven by, you know, the macroeconomic kind of trade issues. Um, you know, 85% of all Scotch produces exported 65% of all French red wine is exported. So the two major markets of the U S and China, um, you know, still not back to where they were, you know, historically, um, um, in, in the U S you know, we see beer still sort of sluggish, uh, even imported beer. So, but yet there are then pockets of goals in terms of non-alcoholic beverages, you know, particularly waters. And food is, you know, on the back of trends like antimicroplastics, you know, performing very well in most markets. You know, Latin America is performing very well for us, you know, particularly foods, non-alcoholic beverages, spirits, you know, coming back strongly in Mexico, beer quite resilient, you know. And, you know, going back to kind of first principles that we laid out, you know, last July, we, over the next two years, you know, predicated kind of flat volumes. As we deliver savings, we will share some of that with our strategic customers and ultimately, you know, drive the value over the next two years by getting a much better return on the volume we have. and getting fitter. That then puts us in a very strong position as the turn comes and consumers come back to these categories. So our story over the next two years is not a volume story per se. We predicate sort of flat volumes, but getting much, much more efficient and getting much higher returns on the volumes we have. And I think for us, our thesis is that You know, the value will be increased through getting better returns rather than chasing, you know, volume at lower margins and lower prices, you know, in markets that are, you know, where demand is sluggish.

That's very helpful. I appreciate all the color. And then just one quick follow-up. You mentioned the progress on TOE. If I heard you correctly, you said the first wave of 15 facilities has been meeting or exceeding your expectations and you're about 60 to 55% through those plans. Is there any more you can provide around the progress, maybe some of the cost savings or the returns that you've generated thus far at those 15 facilities?

Yeah, you know, again, you know, the process is, you know, we go into those plants and we understand, you know, obviously the cost base and what's driving the cost, where the waste is, and where your kind of top five issues or losses are, and then working systematically through that. And, you know, everything we've seen in our pilots in Tawana and indeed the initial study we did way back in June 24 are coming to fruition. We have some tremendous talent in our plants, but with fresh set of eyes and some new thinking from other industries that I've worked in, we're seeing opportunities to drive very significant productivity improvements and run these plants in a much more effective, efficient manner. So I'm very happy with the alacrity with which our teams have taken on these new ways of working and going after the waste across the fleet. So very happy with that, Mike.

Got it. Thank you and good luck in 2H. Thank you.

The next question comes from George Stathos of Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Thanks so much, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. How are you, Gordon? Congratulations on the progress so far. I wanted to come back to Magma, not to necessarily do a post-mortem on it and the whys and wherefores, but really to understand how glass fits in customers' mix. When Magma was talked about a few years ago, the notion was You'd be able to drop in smaller facilities. You'd be able to be more nimble. You'd be able to then get into customers' new product launches more quickly. At least that was part of the story, as I recall. And correct me if I'm wrong on any of that. And for whatever reason, Magma is no longer being utilized. Is it that the process itself didn't really live up to your expectations? Is it that customers don't really look to Glass? for that sort of new product, quick on the run type of product anymore, or type of package, or TOE and all that you're doing in the organization now gives you that agility that you thought you're going to get from Magma, but you don't need to spend the capital there. How would you have us think about that, you know, what's happened here and why you don't need Magma anymore?

Great. Thanks. Thanks, George. So let me start with the customer piece. you know, consumers love glass, right? All things being equal, they'll choose glass. And, you know, I've been out, I've met about 70 of our customers over the last year. And I would say without exception, all of them want to put more glass into their portfolios for sustainability, you know, to help drive that premiumization trend that's still there as strong as ever. So glass is absolutely fundamental to, you know, to the portfolios of all our major customers. And in fact, our NPD pipeline this year is up about 35%, which is a massive increase as our customers look to spur growth. So no question around glass in the portfolios in my mind with customers. And I've heard that firsthand so many times. With regard to magma, yes, the idea was you could do maybe smaller batches of premium. But when I look at it, there's two aspects. Did the technology work? Yes, the technology works. But can it deliver the returns we require if we were looking at rolling out 10 or 12 or 15 of them? And what's the next best alternative? And, you know, as CEO, I feel two important aspects of my role is, you know, to want to face reality and to make good decisions around that. And secondly, is to really allocate our precious capital as effectively as possible. And when I look at, and you're right, TOE, and I look at the flexibility, you know, I think TOE techniques can bring. And also greater volumes at lower costs and lower capital intensity. For me, it was a clear decision. There is a better way for us to deliver on what customers are looking for, which is continued premiumization, but they want premium products at an affordable cost, right? And we don't have small ambitions around premium, right? We have very big ambitions around premium, and I need higher volumes of premium than a magma furnace could deliver. And I think the way to do that is the path we have forward, which is the best of both models. Which, by the way, we have a business in our portfolio that does exactly that and is making great returns, great margins, and it's highly, highly flexible. So what we're embarking on is not new to world. It's there. We just need to get much, much better at it. And I'm confident now we're putting in place the operational capabilities to do so. So, you know, it's the correct decision for us. It's the correct decision for our customers, and it's the correct decision for our shareholders.

Thanks, Gordon. For my second question, if possible, you talked about your current run rates and that things get a little bit better in August. Is there a way to parse the down mid-single digits across the regions? And then as we shift into the fourth quarter, you talked a little bit about why it's maybe now a lesser piece of your earnings cadence for the year. But can you give us a bit more color there? I know fourth quarters are small. The numbers can move around a lot if we choose the midpoint versus one end of the range or the other end of the range of the guidance, we can come up with different conclusions. But the fourth quarter seems a little bit weaker. And is any of it related to the volumes that we're seeing right now? Thank you, Gus, and good luck in the quarter.

Yeah, George, I can jump in and take the second part of that to start with. Hey, George, how you doing? The seasonality of our business is such that we earn about 60 to 65% of our EPS in the first half of the year and the remaining 35 to 40% in the back half of the year. That's consistent with the average in the last five years. After exiting the ANZ business a few years ago, we are more levered to the northern hemisphere. And as a result, with our products being used in the summertime, the seasonality of that, we do have this tendency that I just mentioned. But as we take a look at the fourth quarter guidance that we have this year, we are making, in addition to the normal seasonality, we have made a provision in there in our outlook for potentially more temporary downtime. It is taking us a bit longer than originally anticipated to complete the restructuring and network optimization activities over in Europe. We're following all the rules and the processes accordingly, but it's just taking longer. And as a result, if this slips into next year, we will probably take more temporary downtime in the fourth quarter as we keep our system balanced until we can complete that. So that is a function of that. And also, I just want to highlight also is that our ETR tax rate is very sensitive to overall levels of earnings. And as the earnings are lower in the fourth quarter, especially with making the provision for the potential temporary downtime, we also end up with a disproportionately higher tax rate. So it just kind of swings things around a little bit more in the fourth quarter. So hopefully that gives you the perspective you're looking for. But it has nothing to do with the trends in the business and the volume. It has more to do with the downtime and managing the network optimizations. Thank you.

Yeah. And maybe the first part of that, uh, George, you know, we, um, if I do a quick run through, you know, maybe the, the, the, the segments or regions, you know, beer in North America actually performed very strongly for us. And we, uh, we outperformed the category, uh, as, as the, as the core spirits, you know, very, very strong momentum there. Um, you know, we, we see, you know, as seasonality kicks in, we see some of that come off for, for beer, certainly. But, you know, brown spirits particularly are weighted a bit more to the back half of the year. So we see probably continued momentum there. You know, wine is weak across the board. You know, I spent some time in California in the last couple of weeks. But the industry is looking at ways to figure out, you know, how to overcome that. And the lesson, you know, I heard from people there is, hey, the wine industry has overcome many setbacks over the last 50 years. And there was a There's a sort of a confidence there I picked up, but no doubt wine has been has been weak in Q2. You know, NAB, you know, waters are going really well for us in North America, and we see that continuing and we probably see food kind of, you know, soft in Q2, but picking up in Q3 and Q4, particularly towards the holidays. European beer, beer, particularly in in in Central Europe, down wine down and spirits down, you know, and I think that's just a common picture. As I mentioned, but food and non alcoholic beverages, you know, very, very strong for us. We probably see spirits coming back a bit in the in the in the second half and and white wine, you know, is is doing better than red wine for sure. Other than that, you know, Andean performing very strong for us. Brazil doing very well for us, you know, up 3%, 3%, 4% in Q2. Order books very, very strong there. And, you know, the big surprise for us was in Mexico where beer actually has stabilized, you know, particularly in the domestic market. And tequilas have rebounded, you know, remarkably well as the tequila industry figures out other markets besides the, uh, besides the U S so, you know, um, Southwest Europe, you know, impacted by red wine, particularly, um, um, but, but foods, you know, going strongly and non-alcoholic beverages. Um, and we also see some upside in the back half of, of the year in, in the UK. So that, that's sort of a run around the business charge. I hope that gives you a bit of color.

That's fantastic. Thank you, Gordon. I'll turn it over. Thank you, guys.

The next question comes from Anthony Petinari of Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Good morning. This is Brian Bergmeier sitting in for Anthony. Thanks for taking the question. You know, just maybe on net price, I noticed you're expecting a little bit less of a headwind now than originally. I think you raised the range by about $25 million. Maybe just what kind of drove that? Do you feel like prices for the second half are maybe locked in now? Do you have kind of line of sight to that? And just maybe generally, how do you feel about sort of European operating rates at this point?

Yes, sure. Brian, thanks for the question. When we take a look at the drivers for net prices, as we had entered it in the year, we had a higher expectation of that pressure point. It's obviously moderated. I think the net price pressure for the first half of the year is about $70 million, and we're thinking right now it might be $100 to $125 million down from our previous expectations. Really, really, there's two factors going on here. is that inflation has been moderated probably more so than we expected. Energy prices have moderated. So that is definitely one of the drivers. And then we have seen probably reasonably stable net gross pricing in the business. If you take a look at our business year to date, Our sales volumes are up about 1%, but gross price is down about 1%, right? So it's not really fluctuating that much in the grand scheme of things. We thought it might be under a little bit more pressure. So it's really kind of both levers moving. And I would say like, you know, if we take a look at the back half of the year, most of the year-over-year pressure point has been incurred in the first half with a little bit still dribbling into the back half.

Got it. Got it. Appreciate that detail. And then maybe just sort of broadly from a high level, do you think that the U.S.-EU trade deal coming together this week provides maybe a level of clarity for customers that you and they have been looking for to maybe get orders kind of going again? Or do you think maybe the industry needs time to sort of digest this and adjust to the tariffs? Just Anything you can kind of share on maybe if a trade deal changes anything for you and your customers in 3Q and in the second half? Thank you. I'll turn it over.

Yeah. Look, any certainty is a good thing. There's been so much uncertainty and, you know, customers trying to figure out, you know, do they need to ship bottling operations to different regions and so on? So no decisions in the industry that I've seen have been made around this. So, so anything that brings certainty is a good thing. Then people can plan around that and, you know, we can work with customers accordingly. Um, you know, the, the headline number is 15% on everything coming into the U S but I still understand, or, you know, from some countries that, you know, it's, it's still not clear on, you know, where wine and spirits sit and all of that. And. whether that potentially is zero for zero or whether it's 15%. So there's been an awful clarity on that, I would say. So the faster we get to that, the better. And then we can work with customers accordingly. So the more certainty, the better it is, I would say.

The next question is from Josh Spector of UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. It's Anoja Shah sitting in for Josh. I just wanted to go back to magma quickly. Are there any cost savings associated with this decision that maybe weren't dialed in before but but do need to be added now?

I'd say the primary, first, thanks for the question. I'd say the primary savings is that we are overall reducing our D&E cost to the business. It's all part of our SG&A savings initiative. So I think from an operational standpoint, obviously, we're ceasing the operations and that there's There was a minor loss associated with this, but I don't think it's a material aspect of the business for the Bowling Green element. I think the bigger element is the reduced SG&A cost that's embedded in our SG&A savings targets.

Okay, thank you. And based on your comments on inventory earlier and the prepared comments, and I think your prior guidance for working capital and free cash flow was flat, it sounds like now you'd expect working capital to be a benefit to free cash flow this year? Can you just tell me what you're expecting in your guidance?

Yeah, that's correct. Earlier in the year, we thought that working capital would probably be a minor factor. And where we stand right now is something like an up to $50 million working capital benefit this year, kind of zero to $50 million as we do better on the inventory. Um, you know, on the offset to that, we are having more restructuring profits, probably going to be the higher end. We updated that guidance range. We also increased the, um, the, the, uh, estimate for interest expense, given where the forward curve has has changed to. So, overall, we think the free cash flow outlook that we had beginning of the year is still relatively consistent. Obviously, plays into this equation with a lot of moving pieces. But I also want to kind of reiterate, we're really focused on free cash flow. And, you know, with a $300 million year-over-year improvement despite, you know, call it $140 to $150 million of restructuring charges is a major swing, major improvement in the performance of the business. And certainly we look to drive that as we go to our high-day targets of moving up to 5% of sales and ultimately up to 7% of sales over the next few years.

Great. Thank you for that. I'll turn it over.

The next question comes from Francisco Ruiz of BNP Paribas. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning. I have two questions. The first one is if you could update on how the negotiations with French authorities are on the restructuring you proposed a couple of months ago. And also follow up on this is what else is missing in terms of restructuring or closing facilities in order to get to your fair say savings on fit to win. The second question is if you could help me to understand what is the bridge between your fit to win benefit and the rest of the cost of operating costs apart from the central cost. There is a gap of 20, 30 million this quarter. So what is this coming from? Thank you.

Hi, Francisco. Let me take the first question. So we're engaged with our European works councils and our local works councils, and we're working through through the process of consultation and listening to ideas. And, you know, as we move through to getting agreement on how we you know, reconfigure the network to be as competitive as we can be in France. You know, we see France as a very important market in our business. And, you know, we have plans to invest quite heavily in France, you know, but we need the right network. And those discussions are progressing to plan. As you know, there's a process. You work through the process, and, you know, we're committed to doing that fairly and squarely and, you know, with our colleagues. So nothing more to add there other than, you know, it's going to plan in terms of timing of discussions.

And Francisco, this is John. I'll address the other two questions you have as far as kind of where do we stand in the whole network optimization process and kind of what is left. So we've announced so far about a total of 10 percentage point reduction in global capacity, of which, as we stand here right now, maybe 5% or a little bit more is actually physically closed. The other component has to do with remaining elements that have been announced. One is what we just referenced in France, and the other one is what we just kind of referenced earlier today. I mean, last night in the Americas. You know, that is what will be conducted over the next couple quarters um and and then that would be you know a completion of where we stand on the announced level of capacity restructuring we would still then have a little bit a couple percentage points of excess capacity but we're going to monitor and see where the market trends go and see ultimately determine hopefully we can grow into that uh and we'll have to determine whether additional decisions are required uh and then your last question is kind of TAB, Mark McIntyre:" So if what if it to win was $84 million, you know where's where's the other cost movements, what I would point you to is on one page six of our materials. TAB, Mark McIntyre:" there's actually a little chart in there that has the cost breakdown and, as you can see, with that you know operating costs were were favorable $31 million. 63 of that was fit to win in the operating line, but we did have 27Million dollars of temporary curtailments. That is, as we've referenced the continued downtime until we're able to get those these permanent restructuring actions actually completed. Those are the major, major movers. And you take a look on the corporate side. If you add up the whole thing, you have $84 million of fit to win. You got the temporary curtailments. You'll see an offset in corporate. A lot of that has to do with resetting management and census with zero last year. So take a look at that. That provides you the details I think you're looking for.

Okay. Thank you very much.

The next question comes from Gabriel Haid from Arlington. Wells Fargo Security. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Gordon, John, Chris, good morning. Good morning. Hi, James. I apologize. Hello. I joined a few minutes late. But I was curious if, John, you could kind of help us with the increase in the guidance range, 15 million. And I think to your point, you talked about price cost being actually a little bit more favorable. um maybe by 25 million if i pick midpoints um and then fx i think is maybe a 25 to 30 million dollar tailwind as well um volumes up one percent through the first half we're sort of still targeting flattish which i guess would suggest down one percent in the back half you already gave us some color on the mix um america's versus europe um and it seems like you're fit to win and cost outs are kind of running ahead of expectations. So is there something else that, that we're missing? Um, I don't want to talk to you to the upper end of the range. I'm just trying to understand, um, if there are any other puts and takes in our logic there.

Yeah. Yeah. So, so Gabe, I mean the drivers that we have and maybe just thinking, you know, what, what are the factors that would drive you to the upper end of the range? Obviously you got, you got the FX as you referenced, net prices is better fit to win probably has upside opportunities. And then the flip side that we have is interest expense will be higher because the rates haven't changed. And then you also have, and I'm sure you've heard this, but we are making a provision later in the year for more temporary downtime in the event that we have the timing of, in particular, the European restructuring activity may kick into early part of next year. Those are the major factors. And anything in the variance between, you know, the high end of the range, midpoint, low end has probably to do more with macroeconomic trends and things like that that we're just trying to make a general range for.

Okay. And then the follow-up question, I've seen a few announcements here in the past month or so, Heineken being one of them, I think, talking about building a pretty meaningful new brewery in Yucatan. and maybe some you know reorienting gordon you alluded to some of their their bottling if that were to to occur um and then in north america there was an announcement on reformulation for coca-cola i'd be curious if there's been any sort of early discussions or if you can talk about maybe the opportunity um for beer in mexico um on new facilities coming into i think Heineken's bringing one online in 2026, and then this new big facility will be operational in 2028. Thank you.

Yeah.

Look, Gabe, we're talking to customers all the time, and I'm spending 20%, 25% of my time over with customers discussing what the opportunities and pain points are. And if you look at the If you look at the dynamics of Mexico, I think over the medium long term, it's a tremendous market for beer. We've got a fabulous suite of assets down there, and we're going to make sure we're in position to take the opportunities as they come. Products taste better in glass. What can I say? So whatever customers want to make more of their products in North American glass, you know, with some of the efficiencies and, you know, untrapped capacity that we're finding in TOE, we'll be ready and willing to support anybody that wants to launch products and more products in glass as we move forward.

Thank you.

Thanks, Kate. We currently have no further questions, so I'll hand back to Chris for any closing remarks.

Thanks, Lucy. That concludes our earnings conference call. Please note that our third quarter call is presently scheduled for Wednesday, November 5th. And remember, make it a memorable moment by choosing safe, sustainable glass. Thank you.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your line.