10/29/2025

speaker
Beau
Operator

Please stand by. We're about to begin. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to OneOaks' third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. After the speaker's opening remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then the number two. With that, it is my pleasure to turn the program over to Ms. Megan Patterson, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

speaker
Megan Patterson
Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you, Beau. We issued our earnings release and presentation after the markets closed yesterday, and those materials are available on our website. After our prepared remarks, management will be available to take your questions. Statements made during this call that might include one of expectations or predictions should be considered forward-looking statements and are covered by the Safe Harbor Provision of the Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Pierce Norton, President and Chief Executive Officer.

speaker
Pierce Norton
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Megan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. On today's call is Walt Hulse, the Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Executive Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Sheridan Swords, the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer. Also on the call are Kevin Burdick, Executive Vice President, Chief Enterprise Service Officer, and Randy Lentz, the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Yesterday, we announced higher third quarter results and affirmed our 2025 net income and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges. We also reaffirmed our expectations to recognize approximately 250 million of synergy related adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Our third quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 7% compared to the second quarter. Once again, highlighting the sequential progression of earnings we anticipated this year. Compared with the first quarter of 2025, adjusted EBITDA has increased approximately 20% driven by volume growth across our operations, steady demand for our services, and the consistent execution of acquisition-related integration strategies by our employees. We believe that OneOaks' long-term market value will be driven by our strong fundamentals, contiguously integrated assets, and consistent results from our diversification efforts. Key among these catalysts are One Oak's significant operating leverage, contiguously integrated assets, synergy earnings with the majority being within our control, and our financial strength and flexibility. So let's start with the operating leverage. We've either recently completed or are nearing completion on projects that will add nearly 600,000 barrels per day of NGO pipeline capacity, more than 200,000 barrels a day of fractionation capacity, more than 550 million cubic feet per day of Permian Basin natural gas processing capacity, and an expandable refined products capacity to the growing Denver market. All of these projects are either complete or expected to be completed within the next year and a half. This operating leverage is a key differentiator for One Oak, providing the ability to capture significant earnings uplift with limited incremental investments. Our contiguously integrated assets, including our extensive NGL and product system, provide strategic connectivity and growth opportunities. Regarding acquisition-related synergies, we remain on track to realize approximately 250 million of incremental synergies in 2025. By the end of this year, we will have realized nearly 500 million of synergies since closing the Magellan acquisition in September of 2023, far exceeding our original expectation. We continue to see meaningful synergy opportunities ahead across all of our acquisitions, with the majority of these completely without our control and not dependent on commodity prices. Finally, our financial flexibility strengthens our position and is the cornerstone of One Oaks business. A strong balance sheet, and an intentional and disciplined approach to capital allocation and cash flow generation continue to support our ability to generate long-term value for shareholders. Our established and stable customer base includes some of the largest and most well-capitalized producers, definers, and downstream customers. Our combination of demand pull and supply push earnings and our long-standing customer relationships provide resilience, through different cycles. One Oak's strong fundamentals and integrated assets position as well to navigate near-term challenges and continue delivering results for investors and customers. I'll now turn over the call to Walt and Sheridan to provide the financial and commercial updates.

speaker
Walt Hulse
Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

Thank you, Pierce. Third quarter 2025 net income totaled $940 million, or $1.49 per share, a 10% increase compared with the second quarter. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA totaled $2.12 billion, which included $7 million of one-time transaction costs. The acquired NLINK and Medallion assets delivered nearly $470 million in adjusted EBITDA during the third quarter, continuing their meaningful contribution to year-over-year earnings growth. Additionally, We benefited from higher volumes in our natural gas liquids and natural gas gathering and processing segments. During the quarter, we repurchased more than 600,000 shares of common stock and retired more than $500 million in senior notes through a combination of scheduled maturities and repurchases. Year-to-date, we've extinguished over $1.3 billion in senior notes through maturity repayments and repurchases. This combination of share repurchases and debt management reflect our commitment to a balanced capital allocation approach that utilizes multiple available channels to create shareholder value. The long-term leverage target remains at 3.5 times, which we expect to approach in the fourth quarter of 2026 on a run rate basis. With yesterday's earnings announcement, we affirmed our 2025 net income guidance range of $3.17 billion to $3.65 billion, and adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $8 billion to $8.45 billion, which as a reminder, excludes the impact of one-time transaction costs. Year-to-date transaction costs included in adjusted EBITDA have totaled $59 million. We continue to expect our total capital expenditures, including growth and maintenance capital, to be in the range of $2.8 to $3.2 billion in 2025. As we finish out the year, we remain focused on capturing additional synergies and operating operational efficiencies with approximately $250 million in synergy contributions for 2025. As discussed last quarter, we don't expect to pay meaningful cash taxes until 2029, which is a year later than we previously anticipated. Additionally, we expect our cash tax rate in 2029 to be below the full 15% corporate alternative minimum tax rate, which is also less than our historical expectations. Since the one big beautiful bill, we now expect to pay more than $1.5 billion less in cash taxes over the next five years, and the corresponding increase in expected free cash flow supports our continued flexibility for capital allocation in the years ahead. I'll now turn the call over to Sheridan for a commercial update.

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Thank you, Walt. Starting with the natural gas liquid segment, total NGL raw feed throughput volumes increased compared with the second quarter. driven by higher volumes in the Permian Basin and Rocky Mountain region. Rocky Mountain region volumes averaged more than 490,000 barrels per day, another record for the region and a 5% increase compared with the second quarter, driven by higher propane plus volume and continued strength in methane recovery. Gulf Coast Permian NGL volumes averaged nearly 570,000 barrels per day during the third quarter, and 8% compared with the second quarter driven by the continued ramp up of newly contracted volumes. In the mid-continent, less ethane recovery led to slightly lower volumes compared with the second quarter, but we continue to see consistent C3P plus volumes from the region. Regarding our fractionation operations, our Mont Bellevue Fractionation Complex, including our MP4 fractionator, is back to capacity following the incident in early October. After initial safety reviews, we resumed operations at the majority of the complex within 72 hours. Repairs were made and operations at MP4 resumed within 10 days following the incident. During the downtime, we were able to optimize our fractionation positions in Mont Bellevue and the Mid-Continent, as well as utilize storage. We anticipate working down any inventory bills related to this incident, in addition to the inventory being held over from the second quarter over the next several months. As we fractionate and sell the inventory, we will be able to recognize the associated earnings. We continue to see opportunities for ethnic recovery across our system during the third quarter. Weaker natural gas prices in the Rocky Mountain region have led to greater recovery opportunities. and we expect to continue to see high levels of recovery through the first half of the fourth quarter across our entire system. Related to synergy projects, we have now completed the primary Easton asset connections, including Galena Park, East Houston, and our Pasadena joint venture, providing key connectivity between our Mont Bellevue NGL assets and key Houston area fine product terminals. Additional downstream connections will be completed through early 2026. Additionally, the build-out of connectivity between our Conway NGL and MidCon refined product assets is on track for completion by year end of 2025. Both of these projects are expected to provide benefits through increased transportation fees in our natural gas liquid segment, which we have already begun to realize, and also blending up lists in our refined product and crude segment. It's also important to note that these projects provide transportation and blending opportunities with third parties, expanding the optionality of these ads further than One Oaks' own lending business. Moving on to the refined products and crude segment. Third quarter refined product volumes increased sequentially, reflecting increased seasonal demand. When looking year over year, we continue to experience some regional supply disruptions along the system related to refinery maintenance, primarily impacting short haul, lower tariff movements. On average, refined products tariff rate benefited from the July adjustments where we increased rates by mid single digits as expected. As of mid-September, we've entered the fall blending season. Liquid blending volumes in the third quarter and year-to-date have been higher than expected due to successful synergy execution. Physical blending volumes have increased approximately 15% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024. Despite tighter margins from lower gasoline prices, increased lending capacity positions for a strong upside and a rising price environment. Our crude oil gathering and long haul pipelines continue to perform well. Third quarter crude oil volumes increase sequentially, demonstrating resiliency of our midland gathering business. Moving on to the natural gas gathering and processing segment. Volumes increased across all regions compared with the second quarter of 2025, as producers continue to execute their 2025 plans. Looking first at the Permian Basin, volumes increased 5% compared with the second quarter, averaging 1.55 billion cubic feet per day in the third quarter. Currently, we have 20 active rigs on our dedicated anchorage, driving the need for recently announced capacity expansion totaling more than 550 million cubic feet per day across the Midland and Delaware basins. The Permian Basin continues to be a key area of strategic growth for us, and we will continue to be actively engaged and intentional in assessing opportunities to expand and enhance our integrated operations within the basin. In the Mid-Continent, natural gas processing volumes increased 6% compared with the second quarter, highlighting producer resiliency in the basin and strong production results out of the Cherokee Formation in western Oklahoma. There are 11 rigs on our dedicated acreage in Oklahoma. Rocky Mountain Region process volumes averaged 1.7 PCF per day in the third quarter of 2025, a 4% increase compared with the second quarter and a record for one oak in the region. Strong well completions during the second quarter drove third quarter volumes and will continue to benefit throughout the remainder of the year. There are currently 16 rigs on our dedicated anchorage. Looking forward, the current commodity price environment will likely drive more moderation and increased optimization of drilling and completion activities across the basins where we operate. However, even in a flat crude oil production environment, strong gas to oil ratios and continued production efficiencies point to modest growth in our natural gas and the NGLs across our system. I'll close with our natural gas pipeline segment, which we reported another strong quarter and continues to exceed our original expectations for this point in the year. We continue to optimize the legacy in-link assets and be optimistic regarding natural gas pricing dynamics across our strategic assets in the Permian and Gulf Coast areas. We remain well-positioned to help meet the growing demand for natural gas, both domestically and for LNG exports. with extensive pipeline networks in key asset locations such as Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana. We are directly connected to major LNG and industrial customers and continue to work on additional opportunities with them. Additionally, we are in active discussions related to numerous potential AI-driven data center projects. The key to these projects remains speed to market and our interest state assets are located in premier natural gas supply and demand centers, close to many of these proposed projects and are well positioned to meet the timing needs of the market. Pierce, that concludes my remarks.

speaker
Pierce Norton
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Sheridan and Walt. Before we move to Q&A, I want to close by emphasizing that we continue to see opportunities ahead. Importantly, We're executing on our strategy to combine our strategic acquisitions into an even stronger and more resilient business. Our integrated assets are performing well, expanding our reach in key basins and demand markets, and creating an even stronger commercial connectivity across our system. Our integrated assets continue to provide stable fee-based earnings and position us to capture opportunities across market cycles. We're able to execute our strategy because of the employees across our company. I want to recognize their commitment and contributions to our business and our vision for One Oak. Their focus on safety, operational excellence, and innovation is a key to our success. As we look ahead, we remain confident in our strategy, our strong fundamentals, and the catalyst that we expect will continue to deliver growth and long-term value for our investors. Operator, we're now ready for questions.

speaker
Beau
Operator

Certainly. Thank you, Mr. Norton. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing star 2. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up to fit in as many of you as we can. We'll go first this morning to Jeremy Tone of JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

speaker
Vratan Reddy
Analyst, JP Morgan

Hey, good morning, guys. This is Vratan Reddy on for Jeremy. I appreciate you guys don't want to provide 2026 specifics at this point. I'm curious if you guys could frame up tailwinds versus headwinds as you think about earnings growth into next year. Specifically, should we think about that mid to high single-digit growth as still appropriate?

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

This is Sherrod. Where we see our tailwinds, which pushes into next year, is obviously versus the synergies. We've put a lot of synergies in place this year, and we've got a partial yield into that Easton being one of the big ones. We'll see a full year next year of that one, also with the Conway NGLs to mid-continent refined products, among others. We also have our growth projects coming online with the Denver expansion coming on midway through the year. As we mentioned in our remarks, we have 500, over 500 million a day of processing capacity coming on throughout 26 into early 27, so stuff coming on 26 is going to be a tailwind as we continue to go forward. And then also we think there's just a growth in market share that we'll see in the Permian and some of our other areas will continue to fuel our growth going forward. So those are really, as we see going forward, what's going to drive our growth into 2026.

speaker
Vratan Reddy
Analyst, JP Morgan

Got it. And then on capital allocation, $45 million of buybacks in the quarter. Could you walk through, I guess, how you think about executing on the buyback versus debt pay down or other capital allocation priorities at this point?

speaker
Walt Hulse
Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

Sure. Well, as we've said in the past, as we get closer to a clear path to our debt to EBITDA target of three and a half times, it's going to free up our flexibility to add some stock buybacks to the equation. We continue to be on track with where we think we need to get to from a debt to EBITDA standpoint. And with that visibility, we're starting to be a little bit more flexible in our asset allocation. Saw the opportunity to buy back some stock there in the third quarter and did a modest amount. We also saw a pretty nice opportunity on the bond side and executed on that as well.

speaker
Vratan Reddy
Analyst, JP Morgan

Got it. Thank you, guys.

speaker
Beau
Operator

Thank you. We'll go next now to Michael Blum of Wells Fargo.

speaker
Michael Blum
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Maybe we just go back to the 26 guidance. The slide in the deck, you removed the mid-single-digit to the high-single-digit growth language, so just wanted to make sure I understand the change there and just how you're thinking about 26. Thanks.

speaker
Pierce Norton
President and Chief Executive Officer

Michael, this is Pierce. What I would say is our focus is on finishing 2025 strong and carrying that momentum into 2026. Sharon had just went over several of those projects and the different things that are going to impact 2026. We're continuing to have discussions with the drilling plans, our producers. We're going to be finalizing our 2026 guidance in early part of first quarter of 2026. But I'd end this way, that we are very confident in our positive trajectory. So as far as guidance for 2026, I'll just ask you to stay tuned.

speaker
Michael Blum
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Okay, fair enough. Appreciate that. And then just wanted to ask if you could quantify the potential impact of, you know, WHAA spreads widening. Either can you capture that from your in-link assets? Or do you have more open capacity on Westex to capture those spreads than you have historically? Thanks.

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Michael, this is Sheridan. Obviously, the Waha to Haiti Houston Ship Channel spread has had a positive impact, especially when you bring together our West Texas assets, the West Texas system, and the in-link system and capacity we have on other pipelines. We've been able to leverage that to grow that. We've been able to do that not only on the in-link side, but also on our legacy One Oak gathering system. So it has been a positive impact going forward. We will continue to see us use that capacity as we grow our gathering processing for our customers as we go on as well. But we have seen the ability to move gas on our capacity and also do a lot of parking loans on our system as well.

speaker
Michael Blum
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Thank you.

speaker
Beau
Operator

Thank you. We'll go next now to Spiro Downes at Citi.

speaker
Spiro Downes
Analyst, Citi

Thanks, operator. Morning, everybody. First question, maybe to start off with capital allocation. I'm curious how you guys are thinking about maybe where that next marginal dollar or capex goes. And really, if you just dig into some of the basins or the asset types between NGLs, gas, and liquids, what's most attractive to you right here?

speaker
Walt Hulse
Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

Well, Spiro, I think we look at every project on a standalone basis. We've historically been able to use our strategy of building off our existing asset base, that expand and extend approach, which has given us the opportunity to do some very attractive capital projects. That same strategy exists today with more assets. So given the acquisitions we've made, we've got more opportunities to expand and extend. So we look at each and every one of those on a standalone basis. That said, I think that our expectation is that CapEx will trend down here over the next several years. As Harrison mentioned in his remarks, we have a lot of operating leverage in our existing business, whether it be NGL capacity, fractionation capacity that's coming on, so we don't need to continue to expand that. We do see CapEx starting to trend down.

speaker
Spiro Downes
Analyst, Citi

Got it. Thanks for that, Walt. Second one, maybe just going to the Sunbelt Connector. I was curious to get your thoughts on the competing open season that's out there, how you think your project stacks up, and if there's enough demand in Arizona for maybe everyone to win some business here.

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Yeah, this is Sheridan. I mean, I would say that we feel the Sunbelt Connector is a very competitive project as we look at the other opportunity out there. Obviously, right now, we're still in the open season. We're still talking to a lot of the customers. We've seen a significant amount of interest as we end there. And we think a lot of that's driven by the competitive advantage this pipeline has is that we are already connected not only to all the mid-continent refiners in the upper Midwest that we can pull that volume and source to this pipeline, but we also have extensive connectivity into the refining center on the Gulf Coast where we can actually do some very efficient We already have capacity between the Gulf Coast and El Paso, and we have some very efficient capacity expansions that we can leverage as we continue to go forward. So we think we're going to compete very, very nicely going in there. We'll just have to see how the customers come out and where we get them signed up and how much volume to see which one of these projects will continue to be built.

speaker
Spiro Downes
Analyst, Citi

Great. I'll leave it there. Thank you, gentlemen.

speaker
Beau
Operator

Thank you. We'll go next now to Theresa Chin with Barclays.

speaker
Theresa Chin
Analyst, Barclays

Hi. Following a notable uptick in volumes across your regions, I wanted to go back to the forward outlook a bit. Given the heightened market concerns around how producer budgets may be evolving in light of recent crude price volatility and understanding that the process is still underway, But can you just give us any sense of any early indications on how you expect fillings across your supply push assets to trend through the next year?

speaker
Pierce Norton
President and Chief Executive Officer

Teresa, I'll take a shot at this. Pierce, I'll let Sheridan fill in here. But I think the way we look at all of our different basins are, you know, what is the drilling activity currently? And we know what the crude price is today and gas prices. And then we also, you know, look at, you know, how many rigs would it take in each of the different basements to basically keep the volume flat? And so we feel very comfortable that right now the drilling is there to keep this volume flat. And if that happens, then we also have our GORs that are rising. In particular, up in the Bakken, the GOR is 3.1, and every tenth means something up there. So by our calculations, You know, there's enough rigs out there running to hold crude flat. And at a flat crude volume, we believe our gas volumes are going to continue to grow up.

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

You know, you talk about the volcano, and we get into the Permian, we have enough forward visibility into volumes that are coming on our system today, and what people are completing here in the last quarter of 2025 that we will still the Permian into 2026 and beyond. And as we said before, we are very excited about the Cherokee formation. It seems to have a lot of resiliency, even with a little downturn in price up in the mid-common. So we're still very positive about our volumes going forward.

speaker
Pierce Norton
President and Chief Executive Officer

And Teresa, the only thing I'd add to that is Sheridan mentioned this, but I want to make sure that this gets across he he mentioned competing you know for other volumes um that's the one thing we all focus on what's the drilling what's the anchorage dedications but just as importantly there's gas that's flowing out there right now that may be going to somebody else and as those contracts roll off we feel confident we're going to be able to compete with those volumes as well and most of them are going into CDPs so not a lot of capital to to really connect to our operating So, it's just a point I want to make sure that it's made.

speaker
Theresa Chin
Analyst, Barclays

Thank you. And would you be able to provide an update on your LPG export commercialization efforts? How are those conversations going with potential customers? And what kind of interest are you seeing in the market?

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Teresa, what I would share, and again, what I would say is that first thing is we've always said all along, we have supply to be able to fill this stock, and that supply for a long time has drawn a lot of people to us, and it continues to do that, that we have a lot of interest in our docs to go forward. And what I would say on the contracting side of that, we are very pleased where we are right now with our contracting strategy and where we sit today. We still don't want to give a whole lot of details on that, because as you all know, it's a very competitive market, but we're pleased where we are.

speaker
Theresa Chin
Analyst, Barclays

Thank you.

speaker
Beau
Operator

Thank you. We'll go next now to Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.

speaker
Jean Ann Salisbury
Analyst, Bank of America

Hey, good morning. There's been some rumblings that there may be kind of a call on the MidCon gas complex over the next year or two to meet all the LNG that's ramping. Is that something that you're hearing from your customers? And I guess, Sheridan, do you have a sense of if gas egress could become a limitation there for gas and NGL growth out of the MidCon?

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

What I would say right now, Jeanne Ann, is we are seeing here some people maybe move to a little bit of gas for your portion of the mid-continent and move through on that, which we've always said our mid-continent has a little bit of a gas option to it. As gas becomes more favorable, you will see some more drilling go to the gas side, which is good for our GMP and NGL area. I still think we have quite a bit of room to go of growth in the mid-continent before we really run out of egress out of the mid-continent. And I think we'll be ahead of that as well if we that even getting close we'll be able to put some things in place to be able to get more gas out of the region so i i work we're that's one of the reasons we have some conviction in growth in the mid continent on our volumes is we're also seeing that move to a more gassier play that makes sense thank you um and it seems like year to date in your processing and ngl volumes

speaker
Jean Ann Salisbury
Analyst, Bank of America

Bakken's trending, you know, a bit above the guide and Permian's trending a bit lower than the guide. Can you just talk about the dynamics of that and how much has to do with one market share in those basins versus basin growth overall versus your expectation?

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Well, I think really we'll start with the Permian. And the Permian, we kind of, because of some larger pads were delayed in the first part of the year, we kind of came out a little bit slower than we had expected. But as those pads come on, have come on, and are going now, we are now at a volume across our system where we expect it to be at this time when we set our plan together. So, we're pleased where we are right now with our volumes in the Permian Basin. Up in the Bakken, we have on the NCL side, we have seen some record volumes in there, and a lot of that, kind of that high end of that has been due to Ethane recovery, we talked about our discretionary ethane that we can bring on, and we've seen some pretty wide spreads with the low cost of gas or low price of gas up in the Bakken over the summer. We were able to take advantage of that and put ethane on our system and deliver it into the Bellevue complex. So we've been very pleased how that's going, and that will continue into the fourth quarter.

speaker
Jean Ann Salisbury
Analyst, Bank of America

That's great. Thank you.

speaker
Beau
Operator

Thank you. We'll go next now to Manav Gupta with UBS.

speaker
Manav Gupta
Analyst, UBS

Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my question. We are in the middle of this AI revolution. I think NVIDIA's market cap went and hit $5 trillion this morning. I'm just trying to understand in your comments, you did mention some of the ways you can benefit from this revolution. Can you elaborate on it? Where could one see opportunities as we get into this data center build frenzy in the U.S.? ?

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

This is Sheridan again. What we're seeing is we have been contacted by, I mean, well over 30 different projects for data centers, and they were putting those projects in close to natural gas pipes to be able to feed the electric generation they need for those data centers. And so we've had our fair share of look at those, and we have some where they are very close to our pipelines that we feel we have the competitive advantage to be able to supply those. These are not going to be high capital type projects. They're going to be very nice, low capital, nice return type projects. But we are seeing a good number of them that we think that we have the competitive advantage of either speed to market and how close we are to the data center so that we're going to win our fair share.

speaker
Manav Gupta
Analyst, UBS

Perfect. My quick follow-up here is you and your partners recently announced the Eager Express pipeline. Help us understand the importance of this project and why do you see the need for this project to go ahead? Thank you.

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Yeah, on the Iger Express project, we're really excited about that as we continue to see the demand from LNG, and a lot of that demand is needed to be supplied out of the Permian Basin. We still see growth in that area. The Iger was a nice complement to the Matterhorn, and because of the ownership we had in Matterhorn, we were able to see inside of that, and that project was FID'd when they had enough firm commitments from customers to be able to make an acceptable return. They've been continuing to be able to get more contracts on that. So we're very pleased where the Iger project is going and it allows us to put complete our integration, be able to put gas out of our gas plants onto a pipeline that we get some equity back in and be able to grow with it. So we're very excited about the Iger project.

speaker
Pierce Norton
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, the only thing I'd add to that is that, you know, you've got The capacity that's currently out there, one of the reasons that you see some of these widening of the spreads is because of the tightness of that capacity. So there is extra capacity that's needed in the 10 BCF of LNG that's being basically built down in Louisiana and Texas, primarily in Texas. It's going to need this gas. And so it's not like we're building the pipe for 10 BCF. It's just only a portion of that. So the demand side of this thing is very positive to fill it up.

speaker
Manav Gupta
Analyst, UBS

Thank you so much.

speaker
Beau
Operator

Thank you. We'll go next now to Keith Stanley with Wolf Research.

speaker
Keith Stanley
Analyst, Wolf Research

Hi. Good morning. Wanted to follow up on Sunbelt first. So, in the past, you've talked to potentially working with partners. Could that include refiners or other strategics? And, you know, are there any discussions going on on that front that could help commercialize the project?

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

We've commented that we would deal with partners, and what I would say, they need to be a strategic partner. They need to bring something to it, and we're continuing to open to that. Obviously, we would not comment on any conversations that are going on at this time, but we are open to a partnership, as we've said before.

speaker
Keith Stanley
Analyst, Wolf Research

Okay, great. Second one, I think in the prepared remarks, you alluded to the Permian as kind of a core strategic focus for the company. Given it's a very competitive market, especially these days, do you feel like you could benefit from more scale in the Permian overall? And then separately, can you remind us where you are in the process of some of the N-Link volumes transitioning over to 1.0 pipelines in your system?

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

I'll start with the last one first. I mean, on the N-Link volumes, I think you're talking about the NGL volumes coming off of the legacy N-Link plants that are not going to the 1-0 NGL system. We will see those start to come over. They're roughly around 50,000 barrels a day. We'll start seeing them come over from 26 through 28 at the time frame when those contracts come up, and once those contracts are finished, they'll come right over to our system as well. Obviously, we like scale in the Permian because we're growing in the Permian. We already talked about adding another $500 million a day of processing capacity in the Permian, so we like that. We like to grow with there. We like to grow organically first because that is the most economical way to grow. As we look at M&A, we look at everything out there, and we're going to be very intentional and disciplined if we're going to do anything more on the M&A side. Thank you.

speaker
Beau
Operator

Thank you. We go next now to John Mackey at Goldman Sachs.

speaker
John Mackey
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hey, good morning, guys. Thank you for the time. Appreciate it. You talked about, I think, in response to Jean-Anne's question, just the ramp on kind of Permian GNP relative to the guide. Can you also just spend a minute or two on the crude side? I think also the year-to-date's looking a little softer versus a full year. Maybe just bridge us to the volume guidance. And then again, if you're talking about a you know, a rig environment that gets you to flat next year, how we think about that piece of the business growing into 26.

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

So when we look at our crude volumes that we think about, we are down just a little bit on that piece, but you've really got to break that apart into its components. Really, the area that we are down on is mostly in our low volume, I mean, our high volume, low margin business that we're down on, the The main business of gathering crude out there, we are within range there, and we are excited about continuing to grow there. So you got to look at our crude volume in Terra Department doing long haul, the HDS system in Bellevue. We have some short haul volume out in the Midland that all hour down a little bit. But the core, what I call our core business, the core business of taking it off of leases or batteries and move it through our system is where we expect it to be. And that's really the driver behind that business.

speaker
John Mackey
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

All right. That's helpful. I appreciate that. And maybe staying in this segment, now with the Easton kind of integration pretty well done, you're going to get more on the Conway side tied in next year. Are you able to frame up in kind of, let's say, like a mid-cycle environment or what have you, this overall size of the blending business on a kind of like, you know, annual run rate basis at this point?

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Well, I think when you look at the blending business, you've got to be very, there's a spread component in there, so it fluctuates from year to year. What I would say is that through our synergies and everything else they had in my remarks, we've been able to increase the volume by 15%, which really sets you up for a when prices go back to more normal, spreads go back to more normal, we'll really be able to take advantage of that opportunity, continue to go forward. And as we put more of these synergy projects in place, we're going to be able to increase that blending uplift that we had, being able to make sure we have volume there when we can blend and be able to get to places where before were uneconomical to get to. So it is, as I remind everybody, is that 90% of our business is volume times fee, and that last spread in commodities is only 10%. So even our blending business that we like very much so and we're growing is still a small portion of our business.

speaker
John Mackey
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thanks for your time.

speaker
Beau
Operator

Thank you. We'll go next now to Sunil Subal at Seaport Global Securities.

speaker
Sunil Subal
Analyst, Seaport Global Securities

Yeah, hi, good morning, and thanks for the time this morning. So I just wanted to go back to your comments on the guidance. realize that you're focused on ending 2025 strong. So in that context, realizing that we had the MB4 incident also, is the midpoint of the full year guidance that $8.2 to $5 billion still a good kind of an anchor point as far as fourth quarter goals are concerned?

speaker
Walt Hulse
Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

I think You know, what we've said is that we are confident to be within the range. We've affirmed that range. And, you know, we've got to see how the fourth quarter continues to play out. But at this point, we're going to keep it in the range, and we're very confident with achieving there.

speaker
Sunil Subal
Analyst, Seaport Global Securities

Okay. Thanks for that. And then one clarification on bargain from Sheridan comments seems like, you know, you mentioned that you have 16 rigs running on your system. I believe last quarter that was 15. So is there a pickup in rigs? So first of all, I wanted to clarify that. And then how should we think about, you know, that number trending, especially as you go into discussions with your customers?

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Yeah, it is up one. I mean, there's a lot of flexibility in those rigs moving on and off, but we are up a rig on our business that we like. As we think about trending into 2026, you know, the producers are still in their budget process right now. As they continue to come out there and we hear more from them, we'll be able to reassess what 2026 looks like in terms of rig count and volumes and everything else like that. But we have good momentum into 2026 that we like, so we're optimistic. Thank you.

speaker
Beau
Operator

Thank you. We'll go next now to Jason Gabelman of TD Cowen.

speaker
Jason Gabelman
Analyst, TD Cowen

Yeah, hey, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask one just on the quarterly results. In your disclosures, you talked about the NGL segment benefiting from, it seemed like, selling product out of inventory and refined products from timing of operational gains and losses. You can elaborate on those comments a bit more as I'm trying to understand the underlying earnings in the quarter. And I have a follow-up. Thanks.

speaker
Sheridan Swords
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Well, this is Sheridan. On the NGL side, we talk about selling purity products out of that. This isn't our marketing business. There's different times that we have. We may be holding product for storage and selling at a different time of the year. And so because of that, we'll maybe move earnings across to quarters a little bit. So we saw an uplift by being able to sell some product in the third quarter. So it's really kind of a timing of sales on our marketing business. And on the refined products on our over and shorts, if we look out over the year, we tend to be just slightly a little bit long on volume, but we take opportunistic times throughout the year to sell our over and shorts into the area. This is the time that we sold it in the third quarter.

speaker
Jason Gabelman
Analyst, TD Cowen

Okay, got it. And my follow-up is a bit more strategic in nature. You know, it seems like your growth rate, your EBITDA growth rate is obviously going to slow here from very attractive rates the past few years to, you know, you previously said mid to high single digits. We'll see where it comes out next year. But as you think about attracting capital to your equity, how important is it to maintain a competitive growth rate or – Do you think that your EBITDA growth rate is not necessarily a main determinant of equity capital you could attract to the stock, and there are other avenues to do that? Thanks.

speaker
Walt Hulse
Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

Well, I mean, I think clearly having a growth rate, a positive growth rate is going to be something that attracts people to the stock. I would just kind of point you to our history. We've gone through cycles before where commodity prices have been up and down. And year over year since 2014, we've had positive EBITDA growth every year. We continue to see that trend. Clearly at the moment, we need to get a little better fine point on where the producers are going to participate in the coming year before we provide a very specific number which we'll do in the beginning of the first quarter. But the business is incredibly resilient, and we are very confident that we will continue to grow into 2026. We clearly are going to be focused on our capital allocation, taking the opportunity to bring on real high-quality projects. But if you look at our cash flow profile, we should have the opportunity in the coming years to be in there buying some stock as well. So that could have a positive impact. But at the end of the day, we will continue to achieve that earnings growth going forward.

speaker
Pierce Norton
President and Chief Executive Officer

The only thing I'd add to that is I'd encourage you to go back. and look at the data for like crude oil prices between 2008, 2009, 2015 to 2016, 2020. And it really paints the story of what Walt just said about how we've been able to grow our EBITDA through these different down cycles. And one thing I would say, because most of us have been in this business over 40 years, With every down cycle, there's usually an up cycle. You don't get in another down cycle until you have an up cycle. So it'll come back and we're confident to manage through the down cycle.

speaker
Jason Gabelman
Analyst, TD Cowen

Okay. I appreciate the answers. Thanks.

speaker
Beau
Operator

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Megan Patterson for any closing remarks.

speaker
Megan Patterson
Vice President, Investor Relations

Thanks, Mo. Our quiet period for the fourth quarter starts when we close our books early next year and extends until we release earnings in late February. We'll provide details for that conference call at a later date. As a reminder, our IR team will be available throughout the day for any follow-ups. Thanks, everyone, and have a good day.

speaker
Beau
Operator

Thank you, Ms. Patterson. Again, ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's 1-0 third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Again, thanks so much for joining us, everyone, and we wish you all a great afternoon. Goodbye.

Disclaimer

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