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spk11: Good morning, and welcome to the Olin Corporation's fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key, followed by zero. Following today's brief opening comments will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Keenan, Olin's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Steve.
spk17: Steve Keenan Thank you, Anthony. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us again today. Before we begin, let me remind you that this discussion, along with the associated slides and the question and answer session that follows, will include statements regarding estimates or expectations of future performance. Please note that these are forward-looking statements and that actual results could differ materially from those projected. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from our projections are described without limitations in the risk factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and in yesterday's fourth quarter earnings press release. A copy of today's transcripts and slides will be available in our website in the investors section under past events. Our earnings press release and other financial data and information are available under press releases. With me this morning are Scott Sutton, Olin CEO, Damian Gumpel, President Apoxy, Patrick Schumacher, President Chloralkali, Brett Ployer, President Winchester, and Todd Slater, Olin CFO. The leadership team will make some brief remarks, after which we'll be happy to take your questions. I'll now turn the call over to Scott Sutton.
spk10: Yeah, thanks, Steve, and good morning to everyone. In 2022, Olin generated $12 per share of levered free cash flow, repurchased more than 25 million shares, and reduced our net debt by $200 million. It was a massive team effort after generating $9 per share of levered free cash flow in 2021. As we head into 2023, our markets are not healthy, yet our focus on levered free cash flow remains the same. And we expect to generate approximately $7 per share of levered free cash flow in this recession year. From an EBITDA perspective, we worked in the $2.4 billion to the $2.5 billion range the last two years, and we expect to generate at least two-thirds of that average in the trough that is 2023. For Olin, the key features of early 2023 include continuing to idle our complete global epoxy resin business due to suspended demand in the largest consuming regions of China and Europe, rectifying a transient fat supply channel in commercial ammunition via a lower Olin participation rate, kicking off the operation of the blue water alarm.
spk13: Please hold as I try to reconnect the main speaker line. Thank you.
spk11: Okay.
spk10: All right, thank you. Look, sorry, I understand that we dropped. I won't repeat the first part of my comments, but I'll start where I think we dropped off. So, you know, for Olin, the key features of early 2023 include continuing to idle our complete global epoxy resin business due to suspended demand in the largest consuming regions of China and Europe, rectifying a transient fat supply channel in commercial ammunition via lower Olin participation rate, kicking off the operation of the Blue Water Alliance with Mitsui to manage much more of the world's liquidity in chloralkali, and recognizing another solid pricing lift in our merchant chlorine business. While some of these features of the first quarter of 2023 are already impactful in a slightly negative way, it is still possible that we may have to take more drastic action in a subsequent quarter to recoil further and preserve product values for the rebound toward the latter part of the year. In 2023, expect us to hold our current net debt position, keep buying shares throughout the year, gain an investment grade rating, complete our asset footprint adjustment decisions, and prepare for a quality growth story in 2024. We've also updated our 2022 ESG scorecard progress on page 10 of the presentation. This is a growing theme for Olin, and we look forward to showing the results from our focus in this area. Now Damian, Patrick, and Brett will each make a few brief comments on both the situation and our initiatives across all three businesses, and then Todd will follow with additional commentary on our 2022 accomplishments and 2023 outlook. Thank you, Scott, and good morning. On slide four, epoxy Q4 results are partly a reflection of seasonal demand.
spk19: but principally our disciplined approach to weather the most challenging landscape in 14 years, which led us to deeply pull back resin production that would have otherwise harmed the landscape. While anticipating improvement in the back half of 23, we focus today on productivity, optimizing our asset base, enhancing our sustainability profile, and positioning for value-based growth. On this last point, we supercharged the business during Q4 of 2022, putting our differentiated systems product portfolio under seasoned leadership in new product commercialization. I look forward to sharing on future calls the role Olin Epoxy plays in addressing global energy, mobility, and infrastructure challenges in a sustainable way and how that translates into shareholder value growth. I'll now turn it over to Patrick Schumacher for Chlorophyllite.
spk03: Thanks Damian. Even though 2022 was an all-time record year, the second half of 2022 brought significant challenges, which we are likely to continue into the first half of 2023. Pricing in the vinyls chain remains weak and continues to necessitate lower Olin operating rates. On the positive side, Our merchant chlorine ratchet continues to turn only one way. Chlorine pricing is expected to step up through 2023 as legacy contracts end. Bleach has been another success story, and we expect both products to show substantial earnings growth again in 2023. Our Blue Water Alliance is now one of the world's largest traders of EDC and caustic and will be an important part of the hole-in-value equation for years to come. I'll now turn it over to Brad for an update on Winchester.
spk21: Thanks, Patrick. The Winchester team continued to maximize value throughout 2022. However, during the second half of the year, we started to experience a transition in our commercial ammunition business from refilling depleted inventories to filling inventories to the rate of our customer sales. And in some cases, especially small caliber rifle, inventories became high. So we decided to manufacture and sell less to preserve value for both Olin and our customers. With nearly 15 million new participants entering the recreational shooting sports over the past few years, we believe demand for our leading Winchester ammunition products will remain stronger than historical levels. We continue to see opportunities within our military segment with demand increases from current and new international military customers, as well as increased government funding to modernize the Army Lake City facility. As we manage through this commercial ammunition transition, our focus will be on growing and preserving value for the number one brand in the ammunition industry. I will turn it over to you, Todd.
spk09: Thanks, Brett. Throughout the last two years, Olin has generated $3.1 billion of levered free cash flow. Our capital allocation was initially focused on the balance sheet, whereby we reduced outstanding debt by $1.3 billion over the two-year period. With our investment-grade balance sheet set, we primarily deployed our remaining levered free cash flow toward share repurchases, totaling $1.6 billion, over the last two years. In fact, during 2022, we reduced our outstanding shares by approximately 16%, all from cash flow. In 2023, despite the challenging global economic conditions, we're forecasting to generate recessionary trough level levered free cash flow of approximately a billion dollars, which equates to about a 13% free cash flow yield. Our 2023 cash flow includes a couple of unusual items. Our cash tax rate is expected to be higher than normal due to deferred international tax payments of approximately $80 million that are forecast to be paid this year. Also, we are expecting a peak payment level under a long term energy supply contracts of approximately $75 million. Finally, Our investment-grade balance sheet and cash flow should enable Olin to continue to deploy a substantial portion of our 2023 levered free cash flow toward share repurchases. That concludes our prepared remarks, and Anthony, we are now ready to take questions.
spk11: We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. At this time, we will pause momentarily to soundbar our question. Our first question will come from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global. You may now go ahead.
spk00: Morning, Scott. I've got a question around the 2023 guidance you guys gave, obviously in line with the trough range that you guys have been talking about, the $1.5 to $2 billion. I take a look at the Q4 adjusted EBITDA, $442 million. I annualize that and I get to $1.77 billion, which is squarely sort of, you know, the midpoint of the trough and 2023 guidance that you guys have given. And you guys obviously achieved this sort of these Q4 EBITDA in the face of extreme adversity, right? I mean, a massive D-stock, you know, most of your end markets being as weak as they were, the epoxy business doing what it was doing. And on top of that, obviously, you know, Q4 being a seasonally weak quarter. I guess the only tailwind you guys have had in the quarter, and it seems on a go-forward basis, is chloralkali pricing. So as I sort of sit there and talk to investors, some of the cynics may turn around and say, hey, look, one of the things that has been propping up EBITDA is chloralkali pricing, and it just can't go on rising forever. So it may crack. Again, I'm not in that camp, but, you know, what could you tell us to sort of give us a little more confidence that even with the macro looking the way it's looking, you're not really going to see any cracks in plurality price?
spk10: Yeah, thanks, Hasan. I mean, that's a good summary. I mean, I would also urge you to think about what's the cause and effect here, right? I mean, Olin is absolutely... the leader here and is setting the value equation. It's no doubt that pricing in chloralkali, especially in some of the derivatives, can go up from here and they can go down from here as well. But we have some very solid footing there and I'll ask Patrick to add a little color on Olin's footing. Sure.
spk03: Yeah, Hassan, thanks for the question. You know, it's definitely possible, as Scott said, that you could see lower prices. You know, maybe caustic goes down from records. But other, you know, we're going to run to the weak side. We've baked in or locked in a lift in chlorine prices for this year over last year of at least $100 million. And vinyl's prices have been very, very weak for at least half the year. So, you know... there's been, you know, recent uptick in prices there. So maybe those prices start to tick up. So, you know, we expect a mixture this coming year of maybe some higher prices and maybe some lower prices.
spk00: Fair enough. Fair enough. And as a follow-up, just sort of, you know, trying to get a lay of the land with regards to inventory. I mean, you know, you guys obviously on the chlorovinyl side, you know, pointed towards certain end markets being sort of particularly weak, you know, be it TIO2, be it the urethane side, be it the vinyl side, as I'm sitting there and looking at certain TIO2 producers, they're talking about volume declines as high as 30%. I'm just trying to get a sense of, if you could give us a sense of where inventories are for you guys, for the industry, and if at all there is a restock how sort of impressive would that snapback in demand be?
spk03: Yeah, sure. You know, 30%, you know, I'll take your word for that. You know, if you look at our chlorine business year over year, you know, volumes are definitely down, you know, but netbacks are definitely way up. You know, chlorine and, you know, the chlorine side of the ECU has been the weak side of the ECU as we've been talking to you guys recently. for the last, well, this would be the third quarter. So we're running to that weaker side, and we're managing rates to that weaker chlorine side of the ECU. And that is lifting netbacks, which is offsetting those lower volumes.
spk00: Very helpful. Thank you so much, guys.
spk13: Our next question will come from Mike Sisson with Wells Fargo.
spk11: You may now go ahead.
spk14: Hey, guys. Just curious on your outlook for chlorine, particularly as we get into the second half of the year, there's been a couple, one big paint company who sees the second half weaker in housing. So just your thoughts on how that would affect, you know, that part of the ECU.
spk10: Yeah. Hey, Mike. It's Scott. Yeah. And, yeah, I mean, we've We see the same thing. I mean, the trend in U.S. housing isn't great. And it's not impossible that trends like that change which side of the ECU has the better fundamental conditions. And again, we'll set our market participation according to that weak side. But when you go all the way to merchant chlorine, just as Patrick said, Mike, I mean, that's something that, you know, we've had contract resets. Patrick already mentioned $100 million a year. And even looking beyond 2023, we would expect additional resets as well. So chlorine has a very nice runway.
spk14: Got it. And then I guess when you think about your operating rates for the rest of the year, the do they sort of stay at these levels for most of the year, or is there an assumption that they would improve a little bit as the year unfolds?
spk13: Pardon me a moment as I reconnect the main speaker line.
spk11: Okay, I've reconnected the main speaker line. Mike, your line is open as well.
spk14: Yeah, hey, guys. I guess my question was, where are your operating rates now, and do you think they will, based on your guidance, stay similar through the rest of the year given the outlook for demand?
spk10: Well, look, I would say overall, I mean, we're, you know, certainly running lower operating rates. I mean, the highlights of those lows really are that, you know, if you went all the way down into our epoxy resin, you know, you'd find that we're running below 50%. And, you know, that situation is certainly going to continue because we're just not going to sell too much volume into an undervalued marketplace. You know, in the fourth quarter we had to adjust Winchester's rates quite a bit as well because, you know, the supply channel got a bit fat. And that's trending the right way and that's why we've said in the first quarter, you know, that business will improve over the fourth quarter.
spk14: Got it. Thank you.
spk13: Sure. Thanks, Mike.
spk11: Our next question will come from Arun Viswanathan with RBC. You may now go ahead.
spk05: Great. Thanks for taking my questions. So first off, you know, on that note of operating rates, it says you can run at 50% for one year. I think we've been, you know, at these low rates now for a little while. How long does that year last? I mean, how much time do we have left in that? And then I had a couple of questions on blue water and hydrogen as well. Thanks.
spk10: Yeah, sure. Hey, Arun. Yeah, I mean, that 50% rate was across effectively the whole company for a whole year. If we ran at the pricing levels established in the middle of last year, that would still deliver our recession case. So against that standard, there's still quite a bit of room left, Arun.
spk05: Okay. And on Blue Water, is there any way we can quantify the impact, financial impact and benefit to you? I know that you noted that you'll control a greater amount of the industry supply or at least, you know, be in a position to manage it. So how does that translate to EBITDA benefit, and when do you start seeing that?
spk10: Yeah, sure. I mean, keep in mind, that's a consolidated, you know, joint venture for Olin. So, you know, Todd will make a couple comments on the direct impact that you'll see. Yeah, thanks, Rue.
spk09: You know, it will be consolidated, and our results will come up into the chlorophyllite products and vinyl segment. In the first year, you should expect overall revenue to increase $500 to $700 million. And as it is the first year, you should expect from that joint venture, you know, minimal EBITDA impact.
spk05: Got it. And then similarly for hydrogen, you know, with the third unit starting up, Is that, you know, in commercial operation, you know, and similarly, when do you expect to get any EBITDA benefit from your sustainable activities there? And how should we think about how that contribution flows into Olin?
spk10: Yeah. Yeah, I mean, you know, this is Scott. I mean, we only have one hydrogen arrangement into the fuel cell application operating today. The second one is our venture at St. Gabriel, and that one is, you know, under design and under construction, and it'll take us to the end of this year to get that started up. And what the point we wanted to make that I think you saw in the slides is that we're starting discussions around a third venture, you know, as we try to get our hydrogen out into these new sectors. Even the first two are only about 5% of our hydrogen. Thanks.
spk11: Okay. Our next question will come from Vincent Anderson with Stifel. You may now go ahead.
spk16: Yeah, thanks, and good morning, everyone. I just wanted to clarify your comments on epoxy just so I had it clear. You said a global idling. but naming just Europe and Asia markets is the reason. And I ask only because U.S. resin prices are still holding up fairly well. So is this really all epoxy resin assets are going down in the first quarter?
spk10: Well, I would say we've been running those at a lower level, but I'll let Damian give a little more color on where we are right now.
spk19: Sure. Thanks, Scott. Yeah, good morning, Vincent. Yeah, so on epoxy, what we've said is that this is a globally challenged situation, the worst that we've seen in 14 years since the financial crisis. Most of epoxy consumption does take place in China and in Europe, and so that's where we've seen the greatest impact of the landscape. Now, as a result, we've been, for over a year now, we've been adjusting our production in our market participation in order to preserve value. That's led us to continue to, you know, successfully challenge ourselves to operate at lower rates across our portfolio. You know, we're going to continue to do that, you know, as long as it takes. And frankly, you know, we can still go further. And for us, it's a question of, you know, taking this opportunity to right-size our global epoxy portfolio to focus on the assets that our customers value the most. And we've done a lot of that already, but we still have a lot more that we are going to do here under this challenging environment.
spk16: Okay, that's helpful. Thanks. And then just kind of returning to Blue Ocean. So I always had kind of penciled Olin in as already the largest participant in the globally traded merchant markets for Caustic and EDC. So is there any more details you'd be willing to give around what that looks like now with Mitsui at the table?
spk10: Well, I would just say that, you know, we've expanded our capability there. Remember, you know, the way that joint venture was formed was a merger of the two, you know, international businesses in Caustic and EDC. So we've just enhanced our capability there further.
spk16: Okay. And then, you know, as I think about, you know, the market share expansion benefit is pretty self-explanatory. But if I think about your partner not being a producer the way you are, you know, can you talk about how that might change your approach to the international market so that you're not caught in a position where you'd otherwise be looking, you know, having to run your assets even lighter than you would want to? Does that involve a more significant investment in storage capacity, dedicating balance sheet capital to inventory builds in the right situation? Can you just talk through that?
spk10: Well, I would just say that, look, it's not a market share game there. If you think about what's going on, you're merging two existing businesses, and then the merged business is essentially going out and expanding its trading capability. So while the joint venture will be managing more molecules in the future than it does today, those molecules are already produced and sold today. It's just that they end up under a different umbrella in the future.
spk16: Okay. All right. That's fine. I can work with that. And then just one quick one. Todd, you said $500 to $700 million of revenue, minimal EBITDA impact in year one specifically. This isn't some kind of big fixed cost asset that we're ramping up into, so what turns that to EBITDA positive?
spk09: You should expect that this business, as it continues to grow and gets more molecules under its umbrella, that revenue will continue to grow. and then we would expect that EBTA performance would improve.
spk16: Okay. All right. Well, best of luck on the rest of the year. Thanks.
spk11: Thanks. Our next question will come from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners. You may now go ahead.
spk02: Yes, good morning. Scott, natural gas prices have plummeted perhaps 65% or 70% over the last six months in the U.S. Would you talk about the impact that you would expect that to have on your core alkali and vinyls business or the overall company for that matter, taking into account any hedge positions that you may have?
spk10: Yeah, sure. I mean, I would just say, look, I mean, the impact is a bit muted, right? We do hedge and we always have hedge. So, you know, we moderate that. We don't necessarily see the peaks. And because of that, we don't necessarily see the value, I mean, the valleys either. So for us, it's really generally moderated.
spk02: Okay. And then for the Winchester business, what sort of,
spk10: volume uh trends would you anticipate in 2023 for commercial versus military yeah well i mean brett's gonna add a good bit of color because we have a lot of actions there you know particularly in the military business you know we're going to start out slow in commercial as adjustments you know are taking place and you know military's off to a good start brett well uh
spk21: Scott's correct that we'll start off slow from a commercial standpoint. It probably will look a little bit better in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter, but still slow. From a military standpoint, the one benefit that we have from the military, we get a long runway visibility on demand from the military, from our U.S. military customer, and we have that visibility and it's very consistent from what we've experienced in the past. The big change is that we are starting to see some of our international military customers acquire about some needs that they haven't had in a long time.
spk02: Thank you, guys.
spk11: Our next question will come from Steve Byrne with Bank of America. You may now go ahead.
spk20: Yes, just wanted to drill into the hydrogen project at St. Gabriel. I assume that you'll have to consume more natural gas just because that hydrogen presumably was previously being used for power production. And just curious whether you can alter the operations of your ECU units to increase hydrogen production, i.e., from changing the brine concentration running into the units?
spk10: Yeah, hi. I mean, look, not all of that hydrogen is necessarily used for our own energy production. We have a lot of large offtake arrangements with the gas companies, and we're working our way out of those. We also just vented a lot as well, so absolutely no use. What's happening in St. Gabriel, for the most part, is we're taking hydrogen into a new application, and there's no real meaningful offset anywhere in our system. So this is CO2 offsets without a corresponding penalty. That's generally the way these first projects are set up.
spk20: And maybe another question on Winchester. Is it fair to assume that your EBITDA margins between military and commercial are significantly different, and you may have a volume shift more towards military, just given what's going on in the world? but it's not an EBITDA benefit. Is that fair?
spk10: Well, I think when you look at the overall position of the Winchester business, certainly we gained something on the military side. There are some challenges on the commercial side right now. You may have noticed that we did improve overall pricing in that business in the fourth quarter of relative to the third quarter. And in fact, we expect to do the same thing in the first quarter.
spk13: Please give me a moment as I reconnect the main speaker line.
spk10: Okay, hey, sorry, you know, apologies to everybody. I mean, for some reason, you know, our line keeps dropping. But I'll just repeat the answer to that last Winchester, you know, question on pricing. You know, we were able to lift overall pricing in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, and we expect to do the same thing in the first quarter. You know, import ammunition pricing has always been low. But at the moment, we face the additional challenge that the major domestic brands are actually pricing lower than the imports. But still, Winchester is the leader there, and our trend will continue.
spk20: Thank you. Sure.
spk11: Our next question will come from Josh Spector with UBS. You may now go ahead.
spk01: Yeah, hi, thanks. So just to follow up on the chlorine pricing side of the equation. So when you talk about more pricing through this year, I mean, how much of that has already been negotiated and it's going to flow through versus you need to renegotiate those contracts? And just as we look at your mix of portfolio today, how much of it still has room for renegotiation versus one, two years ago?
spk10: Yeah, I mean, I mean, Patrick will give the right answer here. He gave the summary, right? We've implemented $100 million run rate more in 2023 versus 2022. What's the rest of it?
spk03: Yeah, so that $100 million is locked in. So that's not a hope. That's locked in, already negotiated lift. And then there's going to be more to come this year. As Scott said in his opening, that You know, order of magnitude probably, you know, I'm not going to peg it, but it's another substantial lift in 24 for new stuff to negotiate in 23.
spk01: Thanks. And just on cash deployment, I mean, given the step up in interest and some of your variable rates, has any of the calculus changed on buybacks versus that paydown?
spk09: Josh, thanks for the question. We would expect interest expense in 2023 to be between $150 and $160 million. We do have 30% of our debt is variable rates. We will continue for our free cash flow to prioritize share repurchase.
spk01: Got it. Thanks, guys.
spk11: Our next question will come from Frank Mitch with Fermion Research. You may now go ahead.
spk04: Hey, good morning. I wanted to follow up on Winchester. You know, obviously Russia came out of the market as a supplier mid-year. So I would have thought that the supply side wouldn't have been an issue, but you've obviously been making adjustments there. What has been the impact of Russia coming out of the market that you've seen so far? And obviously the expectation is they'll be out of the market for a while as well. So wouldn't that bode well down the line?
spk21: Hey, Frank, this is Brett. You're correct. It should. What we're seeing right now is I think it's been since May of last year that we saw any imports come into the country from Russia. However, we continue to see some inventory that's out in the marketplace that across a couple different calibers of ammunition. So we do anticipate that to sell through. It's taken a little bit longer than we expected, but we should benefit when that gets all the way sold through.
spk04: Gotcha, gotcha. Okay, and then if I follow up on Chloracal, I obviously was impressed that you kept the fourth quarter relatively flat profitability-wise for the third quarter. there seems to be a bit of a disconnect in terms of profitability between the upstream doing pretty well and the downstream not doing so well. So I was wondering if you could kind of walk through the third quarter to the fourth quarter in terms of upstream versus downstream profitability and what your near-term outlook is, if you could parse the chloralkali segment in that fashion.
spk10: Yeah. Okay. Yeah, I mean, this is Scott, and Patrick may add to it. I mean, we assume when you say upstream, you mean close to the ECU, and downstream, you mean some of the derivative chains like chlorinate organics and vinyls. Is that right?
spk04: Correct. Correct.
spk10: Okay. Yeah.
spk03: Okay. Okay. So when you asked the question, I was thinking you were talking about epoxy as the downstream because we don't really use that terminology within our chloralkali business. So can you just reframe your question now that I kind of know what direction you're heading?
spk04: I assume that there's some analysis of the profitability of caustic soda and the profitability of EDC and the profitability of chlorinated organic. profitability of merchant chlorine and so on that you're doing internally, although I do understand that you're probably moving molecules up and down. So can you speak to the strength? My assumption is that the ECU, chlorine and caustic, was the more stable and the bigger part of the profitability than the downstream. But I'm just curious as to how you would parse that.
spk03: Sure. Yes, as we've been talking about for, I think, three quarters now, you know, that downstream, you know, chlorine chain, specifically through vinyls, you know, EDC and VCM has been weak. You know, that weaker, you know, downstream in that vinyls chain, and that has overall, you know, caused us to set our run rates or operating rates to the chlorine side of the ECU because of weakness downstream in those PVC, you know, in that PVC chain. And we continue to do that today and we're going to do that until, you know, things start to improve. Upstream within chlorine, we've talked about elemental chlorine and that ratchet goes one way and those prices, you know, remain very strong.
spk04: Terrific. Thank you.
spk11: Our next question will come from Jeffrey Zakosk with JP Morgan. You may now go ahead.
spk22: Thanks very much. When you look at public data for caustic prices, maybe caustic prices were $9.50 a short ton in November. It's a little hard to see where they are today. Are they at $800? Or what's been the move in caustic prices from say, November to today? And can you account for the reasons for the movement?
spk10: Yeah. I mean, this is Scott, Jeff. I mean, you know, in general, it's been, you know, fairly flat. But, you know, it's not impossible that you see some product lines like Caustic drift off in the future because But again, remember, we make value out of imbalances between the two sides of the ECU. So when you see that drifting, it's likely because of value coming somewhere else. Will it go down? I don't know. It almost doesn't matter whether it goes up or down, right? We have a position to take. in either case. In fact, I would sort of remind everybody that we actually delivered a higher level of quarterly EBITDA in our chloralkala business when caustic pricing was much lower than it is today.
spk22: Secondly, Scott, can you remind me, when do the contracts with Dow expire? Is the beginning of 25 or the end of 25? And is that a big event for the company?
spk10: You know, Jeff, we really weren't going to comment on any specific, you know, customer or supplier arrangements.
spk22: Okay. Well, then I'll ask a different question. With Winchester, is the oversupply in ammunition because demand was weaker than expected or because the competition was just simply ramped up their volumes.
spk10: Yep. Brett, you want to jump in?
spk21: You know, we did see in the second half of the year some lower demand, but yet much higher than what our historical preview has been. You know, as I mentioned in my opening comments, we were actually shipping more to our customers than they were selling as we were putting... filling up a pipeline. When that pipeline got full, you know, we decided to pull back, reduce our run rates, and not oversupply the market. As far as others, you know, you'd have to take a look at what they're saying about their business. But as far as we're concerned, making those adjustments in the market going forward were necessary to preserve value.
spk22: Okay, great. Thank you so much.
spk13: Thanks.
spk11: Our next question will come from Mike Lighthead with Barclay. You may now go ahead.
spk08: Great. Thanks. Good morning, guys. First question, can you just talk through your full year EBITDA guidance framework? It looks like we can basically annualize 1Q levels to get to the midpoint. So is that roughly what you're assuming, that first quarter conditions hold for the year? Or just flesh out how you're thinking about that.
spk10: Yeah. No, I mean, I would say that we're expecting slightly lower performance in the early part of 2023. And that's the way we've called it out for our chemicals business, a little bit better in Winchester. Look, I think when you look at a 12-month basis, that's our target. I would say that we... you know, really reserve the right to take any actions that we need to to make sure that we keep that whole 12-month trough as high as possible. And, you know, that may mean that we need to have one quarter that's not as good as the one that we just printed. I don't know when that quarter might come, but it certainly could be in the next 12 months.
spk08: Got it. Makes sense. And then second for Todd, just two quick ones on cash flow. First, I think in the prepared remarks, it sounds like there's about $150 million or so of abnormal cash uses this year. Is that correct? And then second on the billion of free cash, I know it can be difficult to predict how or when some of these JV opportunities come through, but just how much of that $1 billion would you expect gets returned to shareholders this year?
spk09: Yeah, thanks for the question, Mike. Yeah, you're right on the one-time items. They're basically $80 million of cash taxes that are inflating our tax number on that slide. So more normalized is in that 25-ish percent range. And then there is a peak level of payments for some power supply contracts this year. So you're right on the one-timers. When we think of those joint ventures, the investments during 2023 probably are less than $50 million. And so therefore, when you think about that cash flow, it can really be deployed for share repurchases.
spk13: Great. Thank you.
spk11: Our next question will come from Matthew Blair with TPH. You may now go ahead.
spk07: Hey, good morning. Your EBITDA in Q4 was down by about 100 million. Do you have a breakout on like just the moving parts here? Like how much would you attribute to destocking? How much to seasonality? And I think you had some turnaround activity too. So was that material?
spk10: Well, yeah, hi. I mean, you know, we quit calling out, you know, turnaround activity as we sort of leveled that across quarters. So it's really a non-issue in any variability of our earnings, you know, going forward. I mean, look, you know, most of that decline, you know, you called it out well. It was a big decline. Most of that decline is, you know, from our own actions to make sure that that we get set up to have the right shoulder coming out of this recession and make sure that we have the highest 12-month trough result that we can going forward. The other things that you mentioned are really just drivers of that. Yes, there's some level of destocking, but yes, you know, demand still doesn't look great. In fact, there's really suspended demand still in China and still in Europe.
spk13: Matt, if you think about it, all three businesses year over year in the fourth quarter, volumes were down significantly. I know in the press release, and we talked Please wait one moment as I reconnect the speaker line. Thank you.
spk11: Hey, you're clear to talk.
spk09: Matthew, sorry we got cut off again. Maybe the fourth time will be the end of it. What I have said was if you look at all three businesses, volumes are down year over year in the fourth quarter. 29% chloroply, 36% epoxy, and clearly Winchester was down. But offsetting that to a big extent as well was improved pricing across the board in all three businesses.
spk07: Got it. And on caustic exports, so some spot prices in Asia, for caustic have started to roll over. Is that filtering into your U.S. caustic export pricing yet? And just how would you characterize demand and volumes for your U.S. caustic exports?
spk10: Yeah, I mean, this is Scott. I mean, look, I mean, there's going to be impacts, you know, from that, of course. I mean, I would characterize, you know, demand generally, you know, not great. But it's not... isolated demand on caustic. What it is is the relative demand strength between caustic and the chlorine side of the ECU. And I would say those imbalances keep in place and keep forming. So even though demand may come down, it's not necessarily an indicator that our direct results follow that.
spk07: Great, thanks for the commentary.
spk13: Sure.
spk11: Our next question will come from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. You may now go ahead.
spk15: Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to get a, I guess, level set. You used to give sensitivities for your key products in your slides. And as we think about, you know, how the world has evolved, you know, both your chlorine ratchet pricing strategy as well as just your hedging strategy around natural gas, Could you just update us on what, you know, as we think about those key commodities, whether it's chlorine, caustic, or, you know, inputs like natural gas, what are the key sensitivities for that from an EBITDA per kind of MMBTU or dollar per metric ton basis?
spk09: Yes. Angel, thanks for the question. This is Todd. I think historically we've talked in the $1 per MMBTU in North America was worth about you know, plus or minus $50 million through our annual P&L. I think directionally that, you know, that still is a good metric for you to think about. But as Scott mentioned earlier about gas, you know, you know we're a hedger, so those high price, you know, numbers you saw during, you know, 2022, those sort of got paired off and we didn't experience them. And maybe here in the very short run, because we're a hedger, some of the dips in gas, you won't see that benefit running through immediately in our system.
spk15: Got it. That's very helpful. What about caustic and chlorine and other kind of derivatives?
spk10: Yeah, I mean, those, you know, our model really isn't, you know, dependent on cost or cost variability at all. So I wouldn't model any impact from gas, especially with the fact that we hedge.
spk15: No, I'm sorry, I meant the pricing, for instance, like a dollar change in the price of caustic or coal.
spk10: Yeah, no, I appreciate the question, but I don't think we're going to go through and probably exactly quantify, you know, what difference a certain change in price of a commodity in a public index might have on our bottom line. First of all, all of our business certainly doesn't follow the index. And second of all, normally when something's going down, we're getting the value somewhere else.
spk15: Understood. No worries. And then the second question, just going back to some of the discussions around the macro and you know, some of the demand picture of what you've been seeing. You noted, I think in the slide, vinyl troughing here in the first quarter and epoxy improving in the second half. I was curious, one, you know, as we think about the 2023 outlook, how much of this, are you seeing anything in orders that gives you confidence, you know, in those, in those rebounds? Is it more just destocking abating or anything that, you know, how do you get kind of comfortable with those, with those factors? And then as you think about just the overall kind of recovery and some of that, how much of it is it macro versus your ability to pull levers and parlay?
spk10: Well, look, I mean, we'll start with epoxy. I mean, of course, it's very challenged right now as we've tried to lay out. But Damian, do you want to give a little guidance on back half? Sure.
spk19: I mean, when we look at some of the factors in the back half, we're seeing – To improve demand, I think you see the news. China, as I said, being the largest consuming region of epoxy, it's looking like it's emerging from its almost year-long slumber. But we also see other areas are starting to pull epoxies as well. We highlighted our growth platforms and our macro trends around wind, infrastructure, electrification, mobility. Those are all that we're already starting to see some of that demand profile improve with our valued customers. It's a combination of what we see in the landscape, but more purposely, our participation in some of these growth platforms that are going to look to drive some improved demand recovery in the second half.
spk10: And because we're running out of time, you know, I'll just shortchange the vinyls answer. And, you know, there has been some light improvement in EDC pricing there. So thanks.
spk13: Thank you.
spk11: Our next question will come from Eric Petrie with Citi. You may now go ahead.
spk06: Hi. Good morning, Scott and Todd.
spk11: Morning.
spk06: What's embedded in your earnings outlook in terms of China and domestic consumption? And, you know, at the end of last year, we saw a ramp up of exports in epoxy as well as caustic soda. So any comments on those export levels into 2023 and impact on earnings?
spk10: Yeah. Now, what's embedded is still that demand stays, you know, fairly muted, suspended for the better part of the first half of the year and then recovers. know specifically in in epoxy right trade flows actually reversed out of china but even when china recovers still the amount of imports going into china is likely to be less than it was before because there there have been some structural capacity ads there and you know what this is what this has taught us knowing that you know we really didn't expect sort of the worst conditions in 15 years but what it has taught us here is that you know we certainly have more trough minimum minimization footprint work to do there so we're working on that helpful color secondly on decarbonization how are you thinking scott about carbon sequestration versus buying renewable power and does building out these hydrogen plants impact that decision tree
spk06: to maximize the IRA credit?
spk10: Yeah, yeah, I mean, look, I mean, you know, there could be some IRA credits for us with regard to hydrogen. I mean, we are the largest electrolysis-grade hydrogen producer in the country today. So we'll, you know, we'll see where that goes. As far as other activities to minimize our CO2 footprint, You know, most of them are centered around our own efficiency and productivity programs. It's not impossible that, you know, we get some wrecks in the future. Will we do more CO2 sequestration like we called out in our slide? I think those opportunities are more limited for us.
spk13: Thank you.
spk11: Our next question will come from John Roberts with Credit Suisse. You may now go ahead.
spk23: Good morning. This is Matt Skowronski on for John. Scott, while epoxy has been down or operating at lower rates, have you made any structural changes, such as operational or with your customer base, so that when demand finally returns, epoxy will look different than it has previously?
spk10: Yeah, the answer is yes. in process now when I said we're going to do more trough minimization footprint work you know that's something that that we're analyzing right now so when demand does return yeah that business is going to look a little little different it's going to be more focused on systems where we've had staying power you know even through these really sloppy recessionary conditions
spk23: Got it, that's helpful. And Todd, in Winchester, can you describe what the impact of margins was from lower operating rates versus higher costs? The margins in the segment have just been a little bit volatile since the Lake City contract started. So just trying to figure out what a normalized level would be.
spk09: Thanks for the question. I think that what you saw in the fourth quarter, because of the significant pullback in volume to address I'll say the supply chain, the supply chain, as Scott would have said, you saw margins come in significantly compared to where they had been. Overall, we had a higher level of military sales in the fourth quarter compared to where we had been over the last 12 months, so that also will slightly affect the margin, a little bit lower average margin there. Great.
spk13: Thanks.
spk11: Our next question will come from Roger Spitz with Bank of America. You may now go ahead.
spk18: Thank you. Good morning, too. One is, can you comment on how much of your merchant or total chlorine was sold on below market legacy contracts as of December 2022?
spk10: We won't give you a specific number, but I would say that that's turned into, you know, the minority share now. As Patrick said, we still have an uplift coming in 2024 that will essentially place almost 100% of our chlorine on a different standard, likely the Olin Chlorine Index.
spk18: Got it. The second one was – this may seem a little odd, but – Can you say how much, if any, of your ECU production you sell as sell liquor, meaning versus finished product?
spk10: I'm not exactly sure, you know, what you mean by that. But, you know, we have some site partners where we may not, you know, fully take the product to an end state, that would be sold in merchant transportation equipment, and we won't quantify that.
spk18: That's what I meant. Thank you very much.
spk13: Okay, sure. This concludes our question and answer session.
spk11: I would like to turn the conference back over to Scott Sutton for closing remarks.
spk10: Yeah, no, I would just say thanks to everybody for joining. Sorry we had so many technical difficulties this time, but looking forward to the next call.
spk13: Thanks. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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