11/9/2022

speaker
Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to OpFi's third quarter 2022 earnings call. All participants are in listen-only mode. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. After management's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Sean Smolars, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.

speaker
spk01

Thank you, Operator. Good afternoon. Good afternoon. On today's call are Todd Schwartz, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Chairman, and Pam Johnson, Chief Financial Officer. Our third quarter 2022 earnings press release and supplemental presentation can be found at investors.opfi.com. During this call, OpFi will discuss certain forward-looking information. These forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and assessments made by OPCIS management in light of their experience and assessment of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments, and other factors they believe to be appropriate. Any forward-looking statements made during this call are made as of today, and OPFI undertakes no duty to update or revise any such statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Important factors could cause actual results, developments, and business decisions to differ materially from forward-looking statements are described in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the sections entitled Risk Factors. In today's remarks by management, the company will discuss certain non-GAAP financial metrics. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to most comparable GAAP measures can be found in the earnings press release issued earlier this afternoon. This call is being webcast live and will be available for replay on our website. I would now like to turn the call over to Todd.

speaker
Todd Schwartz

Thanks, Sean, and good afternoon, everyone. Pam will review our third quarter results and provide additional details about our financial performance and balance sheet. Before she does so, I will cover four topics. One, the key highlights of our third quarter performance. Two, an update on the key initiatives discussed on our second quarter call. Three, our macroeconomic outlook, as well as quarter-to-date business trends. And four, our early view of 2023. Our third quarter performance was in line with our expectations, and we're pleased by these results, given the challenging overall economic environment. The key highlights year over year are Net originations increased by 11% to 183 million. Ending receivables grew by 39% to 408 million. Total revenue expanded by 35% to 124 million. Marketing costs per new funded loan decreased by 26% to $188. Operating expenses, excluding interest expense, as well as add-back and one-time items decreased to $43.1 million or 34.7% of total revenue from $44.2 million or 48.1% of total revenue in the prior year period. I'm pleased to report some positive progress on the key initiatives we discussed last quarter. In mid-July, the most significant adjustments to credit models were made in the company's history. We're happy to report that these changes achieve the intended results based on early trends. To be more specific, the first payment default rate for new customers ended the third quarter 26% lower than at the end of the second quarter. Also, the first payment default rate for refinance loans to existing customers ended the third quarter 9% lower than at the end of the second quarter. Looking at the overall portfolio, The percentage of the total active portfolio that is up to 29 days delinquent ended the third quarter 2% lower than at the end of the second quarter, effectively stabilizing. Based on these metrics, we feel confident that the quality of the loans in the portfolio will continue to strengthen as better performing new vintage loans become an increasingly larger percentage of the portfolio and non-performing loans continue to cycle out. This dynamic gives us strong confidence in 2023. While we were happy with the portfolio quality becoming stronger, we want to remind investors that the net charge-off rate is likely to worsen sequentially in the fourth quarter, consistent with our forecast as non-performing loans continue to cycle through our platform. The net charge-off rate lags new vintage performance, since it is a function of the performance of loan vintages from prior quarters and the volume of current quarter originations. The credit models continue to evolve with the addition of new attributes and data sources to further strengthen the accuracy of the underwriting platform. We anticipate these initiatives will serve as continued tailwinds in 2023. Our second quarter conference call, we also discussed key marketing initiatives within our partner and direct mail channels to source higher quality originations while lowering the average cost per newly funded loan. I'm happy to report these initiatives have been successful. Specifically, our marketing costs per new funded loan declined by 8% sequentially, while the weighted average risk score, a risk-based assessment of ability to repay, improved by 17% sequentially. While originations for new customers decreased by 28% in Q3 year over year, due in part to planned adjustments implemented in July, we're excited that new originations for the lowest credit tier increased by 43%. We accomplished this by strategic upmarket targeting initiatives in our highest volume marketing channels, including partners and direct mail. Furthermore, in Q3, same-day funding was added to the platform. We also implemented our renewed values-based recovery strategy that enhanced customer experience and significantly increased recoveries. As part of this program, we launched a redesigned, easy-to-navigate self-service portal with expanded capabilities and payment options for customers. This has proven to be very successful and well received. Turning to our macroeconomic outlook, and current business trends, we are closely monitoring the broader economy and the effects that persistent high inflation and unemployment rates can have on our customers. However, we are confident in our ability to navigate the environment, and we are increasingly optimistic given the positive trends from our recent strategic adjustments. Speaking on business trends, I'll now briefly discuss our quarter-to-date performance. The business continues to perform in line with our expectations. which provides us confidence to reiterate our full year guidance. We continue to experience robust demand, including within the lowest risk credit tiers in the addressable market. We're likely benefiting from peers and upmarket lenders tightening credit in this uncertain environment, which is providing us a more opportunity to help customers that are being turned down by mainstream credit options, thereby growing our market share. For example, you may recall that OPFI offers a turn-up program for applicants who opt-in will check the market of near prime lenders before presenting options through our platform. The match rate, the percentage of opted-in consumers who are accepted by turn-up provider and moved on in their application reached an all-time low and is 60% lower than it was at the start of 2022. We believe this will result in strong demand for lower risk originations. I will now provide an initial overview of our current outlook for 2023. We are confident that profitability will rebound in 2023 with the quarterly cadence accelerating throughout the year. The first half of the year is likely to be impacted by elevated yet improving net charge off rates as the loan vintages from Q1 and Q2 of 2022 won't fully cycle through our platform until early Q2 of 2023. We anticipate providing full year 2023 guidance when we report the fourth quarter results. For 2023, we are focused on these core areas to optimize the business and maximize shareholder value. One, continuing to enhance the credit model with data and technology. Two, pursuing growth efficiency initiatives to further scale expenses. three, expanding initiatives to increase collections and recoveries, and four, strengthening our platform differentiation in the marketplace, including optimizing the customer experience. As stated previously, my family and I plan to continue to support OPFI shares when we believe there is a disconnect between its market price and what we believe is the true long-term fair value. During the third quarter open trading window, my family and I purchased approximately 273,000 shares for $717,000 with an average price of $262 per share. With these purchases, my family has purchased approximately 882,000 shares for $2.6 million at an average price of $297 year-to-date. Before turning the call over to Pam, I want to reiterate our key message that despite macroeconomic pressures, the business has stabilized with higher quality loans to new and existing customers, lower early delinquency rates, and a portfolio that is becoming stronger as older vintage non-performing loans cycle out due to adjustments to the credit model. These dynamics provide us with confidence and optimism. With that, I'll turn the call over to Pam.

speaker
spk00

Thanks, Todd, and good afternoon, everyone. Turning now to our third quarter results, total revenue increased 35.1% year-over-year to $124.2 million. We generated an 11% year-over-year increase in originations to $182.7 million while lowering our marketing costs per new funded loan by 26.4% or $67 compared to the prior year period to $188. Origination growth was driven by continued strong demand, which created a higher application volume, partially offset by the effects of credit model adjustments, and therefore reprioritizing certain marketing partners. Speaking of marketing, we continue to be more efficient at lowering our costs per new funded loan. This improvement was driven by growth in low-cost marketing channels such as email, referrals, and search engine optimization. Total net originations of new loans as a percentage of total loans decreased to 50.1%, down 130 basis points year over year, and 590 basis points sequentially. The shift in mix was driven by adjustments in the credit model. Moreover, our investments in automation resulted in the auto approval rate increasing from 58.1% to 69.6%. The annualized net charge-off rate as a percentage of average receivables was 66.4%, for the third quarter of 2022 versus 51.4% for the second quarter of 2022 and 35.8% for the prior year quarter. The year-over-year increase reflects elevated charge-offs relating to the initial impact of inflation and lower quality loan vintages originated prior to credit adjustments enacted in July. In addition, credit adjustments have decelerated origination growth and therefore impacted the denominator of the net charge-off rate. Turning to expenses, operating expenses for the third quarter, excluding interest expense, as well as add-backs and one-time items, decreased to $43.1 million or 34.7% of total revenue from $44.2 million or 48.1% of total revenue in the prior period. Therefore, we leveraged expenses, lowering this percentage to total revenue by approximately 13 percentage points as a result of our initiatives implemented earlier this year. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $13.2 million for the third quarter, down from $31.8 million in the prior year quarter, as higher revenues were more than offset by elevated net charge-offs, which was partially mitigated by lower operating expenses. Interest expense for the third quarter totaled $9.1 million, or 7.3% of total revenue, compared to $6.4 million, or 7% of total revenue, in the same period a year ago. We generated adjusted net income of approximately $800,000 for the third quarter compared to $17.4 million for the comparable period last year. For the three months ended September 30, 2022, OPFI had 84.1 million weighted average diluted shares outstanding, excluding 25.5 million earn-out shares. Adjusted earnings for the third quarter were $0.01 per share. Our balance sheet remains healthy with cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash of $50.5 million, total debt of $342.6 million, gross receivables of $407.7 million, and equity of $165.5 million as of quarter end. We have ample liquidity available to support our future growth plans with $558 million in total funding capacity. During Q3, OPFI repurchased approximately 88,000 shares for $300,000 at an average price of $3.46 per share. Year to date, the company has repurchased approximately 704,000 shares for $2.4 million at an average price of $3.47 per share. Turning to guidance, we have reaffirmed our full 2022 outlook based on the third quarter performance in line with our expectations and the fourth quarter to date being on plan as well. To review, we have guided total revenue to increase 20% to 25% year-over-year, operating expenses as a percentage of total revenue to be 43% to 47%, excluding interest expense, add-backs, and one-time items, and profitability on an adjusted basis to be break-even or a modest net loss. For 2023, we remain optimistic that profitability will rebound and ramp up each quarter. as the net charge-off rate improves sequentially and growth efficiency initiatives further scale our expenses. With that, we would now like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A. Operator?

speaker
Todd

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session.

speaker
Spencer

If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. The confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions.

speaker
Todd

To ask a question, please press star 1 now. We have a first question from the lineup.

speaker
Spencer

David Scharf with JMP Securities. Please go ahead.

speaker
David Scharf

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to delve into a couple things. Todd, the first is on just the customer acquisition outlook broadly. We've heard from both some digital lenders as well as some other sort of digital-oriented financial services or fintech companies that digital ad rates were very favorable in the third quarter as a lot of competitors pulled back, crypto pulled back. Some funding-constrained competitors may have advertised less. Were you sensing the same thing? I mean, some of these other companies are signaling that ad rates may actually start kind of reverting back to the norm and picking up again. Should we view... the third quarter CAC is a floor, or is that something that is sustainable?

speaker
Todd Schwartz

Yeah, it's a good question. You know, I think it's a little bit of both, right? So I think you're seeing definitely, you know, I mentioned on the call that we have a turn-up program, and essentially the turn-up program, when a borrower comes to us, one of our product features is to screen them against a consortium of lower-cost financing partners that could potentially provide credit to our borrowers at a lower cost, that match rate hit an all-time low in the quarter, down almost 60%, which signifies that there is significant tightening happening with lenders above us. And I think it's filtering all the way down from the banks. It starts at the banks and kind of filters down to the non-prime and then into our segments. So, you know, we're seeing that. I think, you know, you made the point about some lenders that have constraints with balance sheet and growth right now, going through some challenges with credit and the environment. I think, you know, we're positioned really well there and able to take some market share there as well. I think, you know, you'll probably in fourth quarter, just, you know, due to the, it's seasonally probably one of the best vintages of the year. So, you know, you probably will see some more competition, increased competition coming from it. But I feel like we have, you know, definitely some levers and some improvements and efficiencies that, you know, we're hopeful that, you know, it's going to be in line with our expectations and only slightly, you know, around, slightly above or slightly around where we're at now. But we obviously came in, you know, better than expected on that. and we're happy that some of our initiatives have worked and we've gotten more efficient.

speaker
David Scharf

Got it, got it. And just to clarify definitionally, I think you refer to a weighted average risk score being up 17%. What exactly is that, and what periods are you referring to? Is that the overall portfolio or the third quarter vintage of new organizations?

speaker
Todd Schwartz

So most companies segment their customers, you know, based on ability to pay and risk. And, you know, we found that, you know, our weighted average risk score has improved in the quarter on new loans. So, you know, the probability of success is obviously higher and the reliability of the charge-off numbers. And so, you know, it points to us having better quality. and, you know, finding more, you know, segment one borrowers, which is, you know, partially because of the statements I made earlier about some of the tightening going on above and then also our marketing efficiencies and being able to take market share.

speaker
David Scharf

Got it. And maybe one last one. I guess a little longer term, you appreciate the color on sort of the expected trajectory during 2023, but is there a normalized loss rate that we can think of for the business? And I ask specifically within the context of everybody's struggling to assess what the new normal is, particularly for lending models that were developed over the last five, eight years, that was a time of unprecedented, incredibly low interest rates, incredibly low inflation, incredibly low unemployment, and once we emerge on the other side of any downturn, we're never likely to see that kind of perfect storm again. You know, within that context, should we be viewing sort of the kind of longer-term normalized through the cycle, you know, that charge-off rate for the business to be higher than maybe what was you experienced in 19, 20? Yeah.

speaker
Todd Schwartz

Listen, I think, you know, I think I've said this on previous calls. You know, we feel that when we get into the low 40s, potentially high 30s, and we've also achieved that historically, the business, you know, we feel really good about that as a percentage of revenue, you know, and we'll always strive to kind of target that and hit that metric. Got it.

speaker
David Scharf

Great. Thanks very much. That's all I got.

speaker
Todd Schwartz

Yeah. Thanks for the question. Appreciate it.

speaker
Spencer

Thank you. Again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star followed by 1 on your touch-tone phone now.

speaker
Todd

If Spencer wishes to ask a question, press star 1.

speaker
Spencer

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question and answer session, and I'd like to turn the call back over to Todd Schwartz, CEO and Executive Chairman, for closing remarks. Over to you, sir.

speaker
Todd Schwartz

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again during our fourth quarter earnings conference call. Have a happy holiday season.

speaker
Spencer

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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