Oxford Industries, Inc.

Greetings. Welcome to the Oxford Industries Inc. Third Quarter Fiscal 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Anne Shoemaker. You may begin.

Thank you, and good afternoon. Before we begin, I would like to remind participants that certain statements made on today's call and in the Q&A session may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results of operations or our financial condition to differ are discussed in our press release issued earlier today and in documents filed by us with the SEC, including the risk factors contained in our Form 10-K. We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our press release issued earlier today which is posted under the Investor Relations tab of our website at OxfordInc.com. Due to the material impact of COVID-19 on our business in fiscal 2020, we will also include comparisons to our fiscal 2019 results. And now I'd like to introduce today's call participants. With me today are Tom Chubb, Chairman and CEO, and Scott Grassmeyer, CFO. Thank you for your attention, and now I'd like to turn the call over to Tom Chubb.

Thank you, Anne. Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us. Before I begin reviewing third quarter results, I want to remind everyone of Oxford's core operating philosophies. Our objective is always to deliver long-term shareholder value. Our strategy for delivering this value is to own a portfolio of powerful lifestyle brands that can drive sustained profitable growth. And our purpose as a company and in each of our brands is to make people happy. With that, we're delighted to be reporting record sales and earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2021. These outstanding results are directly attributable to the power of our brand portfolio, the strength of our product offerings, and our ability to connect with and serve customers across channels, combined with the great work our teams have done to fortify these foundational cornerstones during the pandemic. As compared to the same quarter last year, our sales increased 41%. And even more importantly, our sales also increased as compared to pre-COVID fiscal 2019 levels. Excluding linear apparel, where operations were effectively exited during the third quarter of fiscal 2021, net sales increased 15% over the same period of fiscal 2019. The robust sales growth that we experienced during the third quarter was driven by 40% growth in our full price direct to consumer business with growth in each of our brands compared to fiscal 2019, including a 13% increase in full price retail and a 100% gain in full price e-commerce. Restaurant sales also contributed to our top line improvement, growing 14% in the third quarter of fiscal 2021 as compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2019, fueled by strong increases at existing locations, as well as the addition of five new Marlin Bar locations. At the same time, adjusted gross margin increased an impressive 710 basis points to 62% during the third quarter of fiscal 2021, as compared to fiscal 2019. Scott will elaborate on all these excellent metrics in more detail momentarily, but I will mention that they drove record third quarter earnings of $1.19 per share on an adjusted basis compared to an adjusted loss of 44 cents per share last year and adjusted earnings per share of 10 cents during the third quarter of fiscal 2019. While our third quarter results no doubt benefited from a very strong consumer market, we believe the primary driver of our outperformance was the excellent execution of our strategy and purpose. The exit of Lanier Apparel during the third quarter marked an important milestone in our long-term strategy as Lanier was the last of our legacy private label businesses. Our current portfolio consists of five excellent lifestyle brands, Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, Southern Tide, the Beaufort Bonnet Company, and Duckhead. These brands are 100% focused on the consumer and making that consumer happy. with powerful clear brand messages, exceptional differentiated product, superior customer experiences, including our e-commerce websites, our stores and restaurants, and strategic wholesale accounts. Over the last two years, across our brands, we have redoubled our commitment to delivering our positive, upbeat brand messages through beautiful creative content and imagery. Those brand messages are resonating with our consumers and are a big part of the excellent results that we are delivering. The predominant mix of direct-to-consumer, which is expected to be over 80% of our business, enhances our ability to deliver happiness to our customers. The direct model gives us significant agility and flexibility in managing the flow of product to our customers. This flexibility has proven especially useful this year as industry-wide supply chain challenges have required our merchants to be highly adaptable as to what product we are featuring on the floor and on our websites at any particular point in time. The direct business also provides us with significant margin power and is responsible for a large portion of the gain in gross margin that we achieve during the quarter. Finally, the direct to consumer model gives us the opportunity to deliver an unparalleled customer experience that is consistent with the aspirational positioning of our brands. And our incredible people have continued to provide that elevated experience through all the challenges of the last two years. One of our strategic priorities over the last couple of years has been to enhance our digital marketing capabilities by improving our ability to assimilate and analyze data, use that data to develop insights about existing and potential customers, create campaigns designed to reach those consumers, and measure the effectiveness of those campaigns with the goals of increasing our customer account, retaining existing customers, and driving higher spend across all customers. I am pleased to report that on a trailing 12 month basis, customer metrics at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2021 including customer counts, rate of new customer additions, retention rates, and customer lifetime value were all strong relative to pre-pandemic numbers. From a product perspective, we continued to see strength in the casual, easy, and cozy styles that are a hallmark of all of our brands. Great examples of this are continued strength in Tommy Bahama knits and shorts, women's lounge and sleepwear, and Lily Pulitzer's Luxletic athleisure collection. At the same time, we saw a nice rebound in some of the occasion-driven categories that were most challenged last year, including men's pants and woven shirts and women's dresses as people re-engaged in more social events. As we head into the final stretch of the year, I am pleased to report that holiday selling to date has been robust and I firmly believe that we will deliver a strong finish to a fantastic year. I'm incredibly grateful to our team and share their pride in what we have delivered for our customers and our shareholders. I'll now turn the call over to Scott for additional detail on the third quarter and insights into our outlook for the balance of the year. Scott.

Thank you, Tom. As Tom just mentioned, we had outstanding performances in each of our brands during the third quarter, which resulted in significant sales, gross margin, operating margin, and earnings growth to levels exceeding pre-pandemic results. On the top line, demand for our products remained high, and revenue exceeded 2019 in our direct-to-consumer channels and in each of our brands. Excluding Lanier Apparel, where operations were effectively exited during the third quarter of fiscal 2021, consolidated sales increased 15% to $243 million. We had improvements in all regions, with particular strength in Florida, the Southeast, and Texas, Hawaii has been positive overall with strength except on the island of Oahu, which is more dependent on foreign tourists than the other islands. Our gross margin continued to track significantly higher than 2019. On an adjusted basis, gross margin expanded 710 basis points over 2019 to 62% in the third quarter. Driving this improvement was a higher proportion of full price sales our overall shift in our sales mix to higher-margin direct-to-consumer channels of distribution and improved IMUs. Approximately 270 basis points of higher freight cost, including the use of air freight, partially offset some of the margin improvement. On an adjusted basis, we gained 260 basis points of SG&A leverage in the third quarter, improving from 56% of sales in 2019 to 53% of sales in 2021. Adjusted SG&A dollars decreased modestly from 2019 levels with decreases in employment costs due to headcount reductions and lower occupancy costs, partially offset by increases in marketing expense. As a result, our consolidated operating margin expanded 970 basis points from 1% in 2019 to 11%. Tommy Bahama, Lily Pulitzer, and Southern Tide all experienced operating margin expansion. Moving to the balance sheet, our liquidity position is strong. We ended the third quarter with $188 million of cash in short-term investments and no borrowings outstanding under our revolving credit facility. FIFO inventory decreased 17% in period of fiscal 2020, excluding linear apparel. Due to higher than expected sales during the first nine months of 2021, ongoing enhancements to enterprise order management systems, improved in seasonal purchases. We believe our inventory is well positioned to meet forecasted demand throughout the remainder of the holiday selling season. Looking ahead, We are pleased with our holiday season results today and are confident we can deliver a solid fourth quarter. Our outlook reflects our expectation of continued strength in full price direct-to-consumer business. We expect full price direct-to-consumer sales growth and consolidated gross margin expansion over 2019. While we raised our outlook for the year, year-over-year improvement in our full price direct-to-consumer business is expected to be partially offset by a handful of specific items in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year. We expect sales from Lanier Apparel to be approximately 20 million lower than 2019's fourth quarter as we exited the business in Q3 of this year. In addition, we expect our branded wholesale business to be approximately 15 million lower than 2019. This is impacted by the shift of certain initial spring wholesale shipments. These have historically shipped in the fourth quarter, but are expected to ship in the first quarter of 2022 as we reduce our reliance on air freight for warmer weather product. We also expect the Lilly Pulitzer fourth quarter flash clearance sale to be lower compared to 2019 due to strong year-to-date full price sales resulting in less available inventory for the flash sale. For the fourth quarter, We expect sales to be between 285 and 295 million, compared to sales of 298 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019. Again, Lanier Apparel generated 20 million in net sales in the fourth quarter of 2019. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021, we expect earnings of $1.20 to $1.35 per share on an adjusted basis, compared to earnings of $1.09 per share on an adjusted basis in the fourth quarter of 2019. Our outlook includes strong quarter-to-date results with a solid start to the holiday selling season. For the full year, we now expect sales in a range of 1.127 billion to 1.137 billion, as compared to sales of 1.123 billion in 2019. For the full year, sales from Linear Apparel are expected to be $25 million in 2021, compared to $95 million in 2019. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $7.52 and $7.67. This compares to earnings of $4.32 per share on an adjusted basis in 2019. Our effective tax rate for the full fiscal year 2021 is expected to be approximately 22%. We continue to support our business with investments for future growth. Capital expenditures are expected to be between $35 and $40 million in fiscal 2021, primarily reflecting investments in information technology initiatives, new Marlin bars, and retail stores. We're excited to open our first company-owned Beaufort Bonnet company store in Grand Boulevard at Sand Destin later this quarter. We continue to generate strong cash flow from operations, including 157 million year-to-date. Our capital allocation priorities include investing in our businesses, acquisitions, and the return of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We remain in a strong position to return cash to shareholders and are proud of our long history of returning value through dividends which we have paid every quarter since going public in 1960. This quarter, our board of directors has declared a dividend of 42 cents per share. Additionally, in assessing our capital allocation plan, our board of directors approved a new share repurchase authorization of $150 million. We appreciate your time today, and now we return the call over for questions. Shamali?

Thank you. And at this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the start keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Ed Weiroma with KeyBank. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, guys. Congratulations on the great quarter and great to hear the momentum in the holiday thus far. I guess for me, kind of a shorter-term focus question and then a longer-term focus question. I guess you guys sound like you've done a really good job pulling inventory around, juggling, making sure that in-stocks were sufficient for holiday. I know you're not offering guidance for next year yet, but should we think about any implications other than that wholesale shift you indicated that of kind of pulling inventory forward and how this leaves you situated, at least for the opening part of 22. And then a longer-term question. I know you guys have started the process of opening more Southern Tide stores. You guys sound like you're going to do the one Beaufort Bonnet store. Just kind of an overview of where you think you are in your store rollout potential across your banners. Thank you.

Yeah, so thank you, Ed. We were very, very pleased with the results of the third quarter and the way that we've differentiated ourselves. But as to the inventory, I think we've done a terrific job, as you mentioned, of being agile and nimble in dealing with the situation, making sure that we were able to meet our sales objectives and satisfy our customers. And we're not anticipating really any problem in doing that. There's a lot of work that's going into making sure that it all works. But we're ordering inventory earlier to account for the stretched out time in the supply chain that everybody in the industry is experiencing. And then we're continuing to be nimble and agile. So the bottom line on that is that I don't expect us to not be able to deliver the business based on supply chain issues, if that's helpful for you. I think we'll be in good shape. And then on the long term, yeah, on the long term store, we're, I think, very pleased with the way that the four Southern Tide stores that we've got are progressing. We're learning a lot from that and we've got more stores in the pipeline for Southern Tide. I'll let Scott elaborate in just a minute. The plan is to continue to open more Southern Tide stores. Beaufort Bonnet, as Scott mentioned in his section, will have their first open soon. We've got a couple more in the works at Beaufort Bonnet Company. And then as to Tommy and Lily, as you know, in Tommy Bahama, the focus is very much on Marlin bars. And we like what we're seeing with the Marlin bars and are going to continue to look for additional locations and potentially some standalone stores as well. But I think The focus will be much more on Marlin Bars. And then in Lilly, we're looking at new opportunities, too. With respect to Tommy and Lilly, we're also evaluating all existing stores carefully. And there may be, from time to time, some that drop out of the roster as we get to renewal dates or other opportunities to exit. We're definitely in the hunt for new stores really across all four of the brands that have them now.

Yeah, it takes a little while to build the pipeline of stores, so the Marlin Bars in particular, but we feel confident that we'll get some Marlin Bars open in 22 and lead the year with a strong pipeline of Marlin Bars for the future. So we still like the brick and mortar stores and our brands.

Thank you. Thank you, Ed. Happy holidays to you. To you guys as well. Thank you.

And our next question comes from the line of Paul LeJuez with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks. It's Tracy Cogan filling in for Paul. I had a couple questions. The first is I know you guys said the holiday sales to date have been robust. I was wondering if you could frame that for us. Have sales trends relative to 2019 accelerated compared to 3Q? Just any color you can give there. And then on the wholesale side, I'm wondering what you're seeing from your wholesale partners. Are there any order cancellations when things are potentially arriving later? Are partners still just taking anything that they can get? Thank you.

Yeah, sure, Tracy, and thanks for being on the call today. As to the wholesale partners, the performance of our products at retail for our wholesale partners has really been quite good through the third quarter and the early part of the fourth quarter. They understand the supply chain situation, and so, no, we are not anticipating cancellations. I think it's safe to say in most cases they would take more from us if we had it available. A lot of them are quite hungry for goods from us and are asking if we can give them more. With the strength of our own sales, we don't necessarily have a lot to give them, but we are not anticipating issues with cancellations. And then on the fourth quarter, to date direct consumer trend and expectations for the rest of the quarter. I'll let maybe Scott jump in.

Yeah, we're tracking right now pretty similar to the third quarter in total direct consumer. There are a lot of timing dynamics and, you know, with e-comm maybe anticipated to cut off a little earlier this year because of some of the freight concerns and you know, will stores pick that up? So we're monitoring that closely. So there's a lot of holiday left, but we are pleased with the beginning of the holiday. And this is one additional point on the wholesale business. You know, we did, for all chance, we did invest for holiday in some air freight to, you know, bring product in. So, you know, we were trying to make sure our wholesale partners did have, you know, the right goods on the floor for holiday. Everything might not have been right on time, but we did invest in air freight to help offset some of the delays in the supply chain. It was a little bit of a margin drag, but margins would have been even better without them.

Got it. Thanks very much. Good luck in 4Q.

Thank you, Tracy.

Our next question comes from the line of Susan Anderson with B Reilly. Please proceed with your question.

Hi. Good evening. Nice job on the quarter. I guess just to follow up really quick on the wholesale orders, I'm assuming for spring they're probably higher than what we're seeing in fall, I guess, depending on how much product you can get to them. And then just on your DTC business, obviously that's been pretty strong. How are you thinking about that penetration as we look at longer term?

Yeah, so on the wholesale, I think we are pleased with the booking trends that we're seeing for next year. At this point, that's really spring and a little bit of summer that we're seeing, and I think the wholesale business is rebuilding nicely. We're selling through on the retail floor quite well at, I think, pretty much universally all our wholesale customers and that I think is a good sign for the future of wholesale. As to the proportion, if that's the question of direct-to-consumer versus wholesale, as you know, Susan, we've been in a period over the last couple of years where the actual wholesale dollars have been going down a bit as we've been very selective about who we sell to and what we sell to them. I do think we're at a point where wholesale probably has got some growth opportunity in dollars. And then the question will be just really whether it grows as fast as the direct business is. And my hunch is that it probably hangs in there somewhere around that 20% number that we mentioned. But if it doesn't, I think that's probably because direct consumer is growing even faster.

Great. That's helpful. And then just really quick on the pricing. Can you remind us how much you raised prices in the back half and what the expectations are for next year?

Our IMUs, we're up about one point in IMUs this year. Going into next year, we are moving on price, but we are going to have some cost pressures, and we're not sure exactly how it's all going to shake out, but our operating groups have been very proactive on moving prices up to hopefully at least offset and maybe a little more than offset the inflationary pressures that we see coming at us next year. The factories, they're having a lot of inflation, and they are You know, they're certainly planning to attempt to pass that on, and we've got to move on our IMUs to help offset that.

Great. And then one last one, if I could add, just obviously you're at record cash balances on the balance sheet. Any thoughts around capital allocation, cash return to shareholders, and potential acquisitions?

Yeah, so Susan, as Scott mentioned in his remarks, our capital allocation strategy really has not changed. And that's first and foremost to invest in our existing businesses. Second, you know, appropriate M&A opportunities. And third, return of capital to shareholders, which would include both dividends and share repurchases. What's changed for us is that the cash situation and cash flow are really very strong right now. Accordingly, we announced the $150 million share repurchase authorization that our board just approved. And I don't think the philosophy has changed. It's just that our cash flow and our cash position stronger really than I think they've ever been before.

Great. That's very helpful. Good luck the rest of the year and happy holidays.

You too. Happy holidays, Susan.

Thanks.

And our next question comes from the line of Steve Marotta with CL King Associates. Please proceed with your question.

Good evening, Tom Scott, and congratulations again on a third quarter. Two questions on the restaurants. Are there any continued capacity constraints, or is that in the review mirror?

There are still some, and I'm not sure I can recite them all to you, but at least in Hawaii there are some, and I think possibly in a couple of other places we've still got some of that.

Is it possible to quantify on a chain wide? Is it roughly... 90% or 80%, 70% just in ballpark?

It's tough to quantify, but it is limited to some states. But there are also some operating hour restrictions in a couple of our centers where we have a marlin bar. So our restaurants, I think, they're doing extremely well, but could be doing some more business.

But we're really happy with the way they're performing. But they could be doing more in some of the areas restricted.

Also, now that you've got longer... Steve, if I could, on the restaurants, I think it's important to remember what an incredible experience those deliver for our guests in those restaurants. And You know, we think of it as hospitality, and that's a big word for us. That's a powerful word, hospitality, that really means that you're making somebody feel at home. And we want them to feel not only at home in our restaurant, but in our brand. And I think what I love an awful lot about the numbers we're delivering in restaurants is not just the numbers and the financial impact, but really what that's doing for our guests in terms of making them happy and what the implications of that are for our brand. And that's really, I think, the biggest story on restaurants. The financial part's wonderful, but the reinforcement of the brand and the brand experience And the depth and texture that that adds to our brands, I think it's just hard to overstate the value of that.

That's very helpful. And now that you've got a bit more of a calendar under your belt with the Marlin bars, has there been any material seasonality that has surprised you, either to the upside or the downside?

I think in general, Some of the warm or some of the warm where the markets, even when you get out of season, it's amazing how well they are holding where. I think, you know, some places like coconut point and you'd expect. When you got in the summer that they would be about dead and there's still, there's still traffic. So I think they felt better in the off seasons. Um, we've got some still, you know, some of the ones around, um. Fort Lauderdale are still, they're very cruise traffic dependent. So those, you know, are still, are not doing what we know they'll do once that returns to normal. But we've been, you know, very pleased with them all.

And I would just reinforce what Scott said. If there's a surprise there, I think it's just the willingness of people to sit outside at times when it's arguably not all that pleasant to be there, and you would think you might see more of a drop-off than we do.

Do you want unpleasant? Try December in Albany, New York. Thank you very much.

Look, everything is relative. We get that.

Thank you very much. I'll take the balance of my questions.

We'll ask you to just – Come see us then.

Happy holidays to you, Steve. Thank you.

And we have reached the end of our question and answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Tom Chubb for closing remarks.

Okay. Thank you very much to all of you for joining us. We're really proud of the results that we delivered for the third quarter and what we believe that we're going to be able to do for the fourth quarter and think it is a direct result of all the work that we've done to continue to differentiate our brands, our products, and the service that we deliver to our customers. We wish you all happy holidays and look forward to talking to you again in March.

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.