2/13/2025

speaker
Julianne
Conference Operator

Good afternoon. Welcome to the Penske Automotive Group fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay approximately one hour after completion through February 20th, 2025 on the company's website under the investors tab at .penskeautomotive.com. I will now introduce Tony Porden, the company's executive vice president of investor relations and corporate development. Sir, please go ahead.

speaker
Tony Porden
Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development

Thank you, Julianne. Good afternoon, everyone. And thank you for joining us today. A press release detailing Penske Automotive Group's fourth quarter 2024 financial results was issued this morning and is posted on our website along with a presentation designed to assist you in understanding the company's results. As always, I'm available by email or phone for any follow-up questions you may have. Joining me for today's call are Roger Penske, our chair, Shelley Hallgrave, EVP and chief financial officer, Rich Shearing, North American Operations, Randall Seymour, International Operations, and Tony Ficione, who's our vice president and corporate controller. Our discussion today may include forward-looking statements about our operations, earnings potential, outlook, acquisitions, future events, growth plans, liquidity, and assessment of business conditions. We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA, and our leverage ratio. We have prominently presented the comparable GAAP measures and have reconciled the non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures in this morning's press release and investor presentation, both of which are available on our website. Our future results may vary from our expectations because of risks and uncertainties outlined in today's press release under forward-looking statements. I also direct you to our SEC filings, including our Form 10K and previously filed Form 10Qs for additional discussion and factors that could cause future events to differ materially from expectations. At this time, I would now like to turn the call over to Roger Penske.

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Thank you, Tony. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'd like to begin by thanking each of our team members for their hard work and commitment to exceeding expectations through their efforts at PAG and delivered a strong fourth quarter and another outstanding year of profitability. During 2024, PAG delivered 491,000 new and used vehicles and over 20,500 new and used commercial trucks. We increased our revenue by 3% to 30.5 billion. We generated 1.24 billion in earnings before taxes, 919 million of net income and earnings per share of $13.74. We continue to grow our business by completing acquisitions of 2.1 billion in expected annualized revenue and including expanding automotive operations in the US and UK, entering the retail automotive market in Australia with three Porsche dealerships and adding a strategic commercial truck location in Wisconsin. In our press release this morning, we announced the 17th consecutive increase in our quarterly dividend. The increase was 3 cents per share to $1.22 per share. Since the end of 23, we have increased our dividend by 54%. We maintain strong balance sheet and debt capitalization with ratios of 26.2 and leverage of 1.2X. Now let's turn our attention to the latest quarter results. I'm very pleased with the financial performance during the quarter. Revenue increased 6% to a record 7.7 billion. New and used automotive gross profit per unit retailed remained strong. An overall gross margin was 16.3%, representing the sixth consecutive quarter of consistent gross margin. Our efforts to control costs drove a 70 basis point reduction when selling general administrative expenses as a percentage of gross profit when compared to the fourth quarter last year and a 90 basis points improvement sequentially when compared to the third quarter of 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2024, PAG generated 315 million in income before taxes 236 million in net income and income per share of $3.54. Income before taxes increased 23%. That income grew 24% and earnings per share increased 25. On an adjusted basis, income before taxes increased 6%. That income grew by 2% and earnings per share increased by 3% when compared to last year. Looking at our retail auto business, we delivered 120,530 units during the quarter, up nearly 3%. Our same store units were flat. New units delivered increased 11%. Average new vehicle transaction price increased 5% to $60,288. Gross profit per new vehicle retail remained strong at $5,146 and increased sequentially by $74 from the third quarter of 2024 and remained nearly 2,000 higher in 2019. Used units declined 6%. Gross profit per vehicle retail increased $349 quarter over quarter. The unit decline is associated with the disposal of three UK car shop locations as we transitioned the UK-based car shop location to Sitner Select in 2024. The Sitner Select dealership sell fewer units, which contributed to the 6% decline in used vehicles retail during the fourth quarter. Excluding Sitner Select dealerships in both period used vehicles retail would have increased 8%. Variable gross profit per unit retail was $5,319 representing a $60 per unit increase versus Q4-23 and a sequential increase of 203 when compared to the third quarter of 2024. Approximately one half of our gross profit is derived from our service and parts business. As we look to continue growing this important part of our business, we've increased our technician count by 7% during 2024 and our effective labor rate in the US has increased 6%. In the quarter service and parts revenue increased 13%, the 771 million, including 7% on a same store basis with customer pay up 3%, warranty up 24 and collision repair up four. Fixed absorption in the US increased 320 basis points to 87.5%. In the US the average age of vehicle service is 6.1 years up from 5.5 in 2019, the average miles on a vehicle service was 69,000. Let me now turn it over to Rich

speaker
Rich Shearing
Head of North American Operations

Shearing. Thank you Roger and good afternoon everyone. In our US retail automotive operations, we experienced a surge in traffic post-election. For the quarter, new units increased 10% while used units increased 6%. During the quarter, 33% of the new units sold in the US were sold at MSRP demonstrating continued strength and demand. Although we've done a great job working with our OEMs to manage BEV inventory to be more closely aligned with customer demand, the majority of BEV units still require significant discounting. In Q4 the average discount on a BEV from MSRP was nearly $6,900 per unit. Turning to our retail commercial truck business, we remain one of the largest commercial truck retailers for Diamond Trucks North America. And the retail truck business is one of our core pillars of our diversified model. We operate 35 full sales and service facilities, 11 standalone service and parts facilities and 12 collision centers. We believe Class 8 commercial truck demand will continue to be driven primarily by replacement purchases in 2025. During Q4, North American industry Class 8 retail sales were flat at 82,000 units. At the end of December, the current industry backlog was 145,500 units or approximately five months, represented five months worth of sales. Premier Truck Group sold 4,432 new and used units in Q4, which was down 18% when compared to Q4 last year. The year over year decline in sales is related to the timing of deliveries as supply shortages pushed out deliveries from the first half to the second half of the year in 2023. However, during that same period, gross profit per unit retail increased by 21%. Revenue was 774 million and EBT was 45 million for the quarter with a return on sales of .8% up 10 basis points. Same store SG&A to gross profit was .8% and fixed absorption was 122%. As we look towards 25 and 26, we expect replacement demand to continue while the anticipated emissions change for 27 and the recovery and freight market could help drive higher retail sales. Turning to Penske Transportation Solutions, during Q4 operating revenue increased 3% to 2.8 billion. Full service revenue and contract increased 9%, logistics revenue increased 3%. Rental revenue declined 9% as the freight recession continued to impact the number of units on rent and our rental utilization. The PTS operating profit increased 32 million but was offset by higher interest costs of 9 million and a decline in gain on sale of 25 million. The PTS earnings before tax of 188 million were consistent with Q4 last year. PAG's share of the PTS earnings was 52.3 million up from 51.2 million in the fourth quarter of the prior year. And for the year, PAG's share of PTS earnings totaled 198 million and we received 98.4 million in cash distributions. Would now like to turn the call over to Randall Seymour.

speaker
Randall Seymour
Head of International Operations

Thanks Rich, good afternoon everyone. Looking at the UK retail automotive market, our same store new units delivered in Q4 increased by .5% which compares favorably with the .7% decline in the UK new vehicle market in Q4. New vehicle gross per unit remained resilient increasing $428 per unit on a sequential basis when compared to the third quarter. Same store used units declined 18% as a result of the transition of the UK car shop locations to Sitner Select which focuses on lower volume but higher quality premium vehicles. Excluding those dealerships, same store used units in the UK would have decreased 2% but pleasantly used vehicle same store gross profit increased $542 per unit when compared to the fourth quarter in 2023. Service in part same store revenue increased 8.6%. Turning to Australia, as you may recall, in December we acquired our third Porsche location in Melbourne, the second largest city in Australia. We now operate three Porsche locations with an expected and annualized revenue of 260 million and one Penske Select used car location. During the fourth quarter, these dealerships retailed 468 new and used units, generated 53 million in revenue with a return of .5% on sales. Turning to our on and off highway markets in Australia, we remain very pleased with our progress. In Q4, the business produced a record revenue and a reduction in SG&A gross profit of 630 basis points. Service and parts represent approximately 65% of our total gross profit. So our focus on increasing units and operations is a key driver of the business. In the on highway market, we delivered a record number of MAN trucks in 2024, boosted by our largest fleet sale ever. In the off highway sector, revenue and margin were driven by strong energy solutions, mining and defense business. The Energy Solutions Order Bank is over 600 million Australian dollars for delivery in 2025 and beyond, predominantly related to the growth in large data center and battery energy storage solution business. We remain market leadership in the high horsepower generation segment with over 55% share. In the defense market, we provide power and support for submarines, frigates and infantry fighting vehicles. I would now like to turn the call to Shelley Holgrave.

speaker
Shelley Hallgrave
EVP and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Randall. Good afternoon, everyone. I will review our cashflow, balance sheet and capital allocation. Our balance sheet and strong cashflow provides us with opportunities to maximize capital allocation. As a result, we continue to grow our business through acquisitions and return capital to shareholders through dividends and opportunistic securities repurchases. During 2024, we generated 1.2 billion in cashflow from operations and our EBITDA was 1.49 billion. Our free cashflow, which is cashflow from operations after deducting capital expenditures was 811 million. In our press release this morning, we announced the 17th consecutive increase in our quarterly dividend. The increase was three cents per share to $1.22 per share. Since the end of 2023, we have increased the dividend 54%. Using yesterday's closing price, our current yield is approximately .9% with a payout ratio of 36%. Dividends paid to shareholders during 2024 were 274 million and we repurchased approximately 517,000 shares at $149.69 per share for 78 million. Combined, we returned approximately 352 million to shareholders in 2024. In addition to the return to shareholders, we completed acquisitions of 23 retail automotive franchises and five commercial truck locations in 2024. Together, these acquisitions represent 2.1 billion in estimated annualized revenues, including 1.9 billion in retail automotive revenue and 200 million in retail commercial truck revenue. Additionally, as we focus on strategic capital allocation, we also divested or closed 10 retail automotive locations in 2024, which represented approximately 650 million in estimated annualized revenue. Our strong cashflow has allowed PAG to keep its non-vehicle debt and leverage low. At the end of December, our non-vehicle long-term debt was 1.852 billion, up 223 million from the end of December, 2023. 74% of the non-vehicle long-term debt is at fixed rate. Debt to total capitalization was .2% and leverage was 1.2 times. When including floor plan debt, we have 4.5 billion of variable debt. 55% of our variable rate debt is in the US. We estimate a 25 basis point change in interest rates would impact interest expense by approximately $11 million. As of December 31st, we had 72 million of cash and the liquidity available to us was 1.8 billion. As we look ahead to the maturity of our 550 million of .5% senior subordinated notes in September of this year, we currently expect to repay those notes from cash flows from operations or borrowings under our credit agreement. Total inventory was 4.6 billion, up 350 million from the end of December, 2023. Floor plan debt was 4 billion. New and used inventory remains in good shape. New vehicle inventory is at a 49-day supply, which includes 41 days in the US and 65 days in the UK. Day supply of new vehicles for premium was 52 and volume foreign was 32. The day supply of new battery electric vehicles in the US is 76 days at the end of 2024, down from 88 days at the end of June. Used vehicle inventory is at a 47-day supply, which includes 35 days in the US and 60 days in the UK. At this time, I'll turn the call back to Roger for some final remarks.

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Yeah, thank you, Shelly, Rich and Randall. 2024 was a remarkable year for PAG and reflected record revenue and one of the strongest years of profitability in the company's history. I remain particularly pleased with the continued resilience of gross profit per new vehicle retailed and the focus on our cost controls. I'm very confident in our model and the performance of the business. Appreciate you joining us today. Let's turn it over to the operator for questions. Thank you.

speaker
Julianne
Conference Operator

If you would like to ask a question, please press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw any questions, press star one again. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Michael Ward from Freedom Capital. Please go ahead, your line is open.

speaker
Michael Ward
Analyst at Freedom Capital

Hey, Mike. Oh, thank you, Mark. Thank you very much. Hi, Roger, hello, everybody. Hi, Mike. When I look at that chart on page six of your slide deck, it's been pretty consistent. I mean, since 2019 with your allocation strategy, has anything changed? I mean, is there anything, when you look at, it seems like we're in a wave where maybe acquisition opportunities are a little bit greater. And will that continue in 25, 26? Will you continue to look at your core competencies, whether it's overseas, whether it's in trucks, whether it's US? Is there anything shifting there or can we expect more of the same, assuming that we're in a similar type environment?

speaker
Shelley Hallgrave
EVP and Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Mike, it's Shelley. We've talked before about our capital allocation strategy about wanting to grow 5% through acquisition and 5% internally. We did a really good job of taking advantage of some of the opportunities that came available to us this year, acquiring 2.1 billion in annualized revenue. So, if you stay along that same line, 5% of revenue, I think that's a good target in terms of our acquisition strategy. We're of course gonna balance that with multiples on our stock, but you're absolutely right. We're gonna look at every corner of our business. And we did that this year, right? We looked, we took a look at international to start the year with acquisition in the UK. We expanded into the Australia retail market, which is a significant opportunity for us. We also expanded domestically and we expanded with trucks. So, we'll continue to do that. We like being safe and secure, but for the right price and for the right opportunity, we will definitely take advantage of that. On the other side of that, we've got our return to shareholders, over 350 million this year return, which is important to us and something that, we're gonna continue to prioritize. We've got 150 million of authorization from our board to look at share repurchases. And so, we'll just go on down the line.

speaker
Michael Ward
Analyst at Freedom Capital

Thank you, Shelley. Thank you very much.

speaker
Julianne
Conference Operator

Next question comes from John Murphy from Bank of America. Please go ahead, your line is open.

speaker
John Murphy
Analyst at Bank of America

Hey, John. Hey, Roger. Good afternoon, Roger and team. You know, Roger, just a first question. You know, it seems like the business is, particularly on the new auto side is hitting an inflection point. And I think this was the first time in a while we've seen the front end gross, as you mentioned, up sequentially and in the year over year basis. There's constant fear that new GPUs are gonna keep falling, but that's not what actually happened this quarter sequentially for sure. Do you think we're hitting an inflection point here in the auto business, specifically and maybe in the total business as well, and we're back to sort of this period of, you know, growth in front of us for the next few years?

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Well, I think number one, I think as you look at PAG, you've got to look at our brand mix. And as you know, overall we're about 77% premium in the UK we're 95. And when you look at brands like Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, Land Rover, where we have very high concentration, we see that those brands are maintaining the growth, which certainly helps us. And overall, when you look at the, go back to July of last year on new, we were at 6.6500 and we're at 6600 when I look at the January numbers. So look, I'm not saying that there won't be some deterioration, that would not be the right thing to communicate today. But overall, I think that from an overall standpoint, we have the opportunity to continue to have the strong growth profit. Obviously, F&I is a piece of that. And we're really flexing to have more product and probably less F&I or finance because of the mix of leasing coming back. That'll help us on the premium side because a lot of these cars will go out, they'll come back on a three year lease and we'll get those as good used cars. And I think we can also use the vehicles we had in the past that we couldn't use new loaner cars in service for doing that now. And those cars coming out are make terrific used cars. So I think the growth on use will continue to be strong. Obviously, as we look at the UK, we've taken the day's supply over 90 in the UK on use from 6.1 or 6.2 down to just over 1%. So that's driving a higher margin. And again, Toyota is very strong now, which could be some ability to determinate some downward pressure because we're dealing with Toyota with a single day, a single digit supply of new cars right now. So I feel good about it. I think interest rates coming down, hopefully we'll see more. So affordability will be key. And again, I see the captive finance companies being very active right now also. So that helps us maintain the growth.

speaker
John Murphy
Analyst at Bank of America

And maybe Roger, just to follow up on that, BEVs have been a weight on that GPU for quite some time now. Do you see relief from that going forward? I know the automakers becoming more realistic about what they're going to be delivering to you with BEVs, and you're not gonna be overburdened with those.

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Well, if you ask me that question, six months ago, I would say that our inventories were 30 to 40% BEVs in the two premium, the high premium brands. Now that is now down to about 11%, which really is more active from the standpoint of what we're selling. We were at 8% last year. So they've made a big pivot. And Porsche who had the new Macan that came out, which was fully electric, is already notified to the dealers that they're gonna have an ICE version, which is really key. When we look at the discount right now, just take MSRP across all the BEVs that we sell, it's about $6,800 less than an ICE vehicle in each brand.

speaker
John Murphy
Analyst at Bank of America

That's helpful. And just lastly, on the technician hiring plus 7% for 2024, what do you think you're gonna be able to hit in 2025 as far as tech growth and how scarce are these folks? Are you finding more and more people coming in?

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Well, I would say this, and from talking across the network, that we're seeing more applicants than we have in the past. Now, do they meet our criteria? Probably the answer probably is no, many of them. But we see filling this funnel with people that can move up in the organization, and we team them up with an A-Tech. And it's really paid off because this is a great business. And when we look at the techs, they're generating about 30,000 gross profit per tech per month, which really helps us. And we're driving efficiency, and we're using technology obviously to get this gross profit. And again, I think this is key to us. One of the areas that we're always concerned about is body shop. And we're investing a lot in body shops, both on the auto side and also the commercial truck. And we see this as a secret sauce where we're staying in it, not divesting of our body shops. So because as we get into premium side, not many people can fix a BMW or a Porsche properly, so we get the benefit of negotiating a better rate with the insurance companies. And I think when we grow our own, we certainly have less turnover. And I would say our turnover for the company last year was about 18% on a worldwide basis. And I think on the techs, it probably was somewhere in 12 to 13%.

speaker
John Murphy
Analyst at Bank of America

That's very helpful. Thank you very much, Roger.

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Yeah,

speaker
John Murphy
Analyst at Bank of America

thanks.

speaker
Julianne
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from Thomas Wendler from Steven Bank. Please go ahead, your line is open.

speaker
Thomas Wendler
Analyst at Steven Bank

Hey, good afternoon, everyone.

speaker
Tony Porden
Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development

How are you? Hey, Tom.

speaker
Thomas Wendler
Analyst at Steven Bank

Yeah, I wanted to start off with just the commercial truck demand in 2025. How impactful do you think some of the pre-buying could be prior to the emission changes in 2027?

speaker
Rich Shearing
Head of North American Operations

Yeah, Thomas, Rich Shearing here. I think there's a little bit of a wait and see at the moment, because obviously you've seen the Trump administration and the new head of the EPA taking a look at rescinding some of the waivers that are out there today, whether that's advanced clean truck, the truck true or transportation, refrigeration unit regulation, and then also looking at a national standard and taking away California's ability to have independent regulations. And so none of those things are turned around quickly or easily, but I think there's a lot of support around some of those initiatives. And so I think time will tell, but I think right now most of the OEMs have probably made a significant investment already in meeting the 2027 standards around the book. And so that's gonna play into the results as well. So I think as it relates to 2025, I don't think we'll see much of a pre-buy effect there. As we go into 26, we'll have better clarity than on what the regulations are gonna look like in 27. It may be a little bit easier to answer your question. I think the other thing that would temper a pre-buy is this rate recession, there's been, it's lasted a lot longer than any of the previous cycles because of the amount of capacity that's in the marketplace at the moment. Typically, when you have a freight recession, the capacity comes out fairly quickly. You have a big reduction in used truck pricing, and then you get to a new state of equilibrium where the capacity and the trucks available meet the loads that are there. And that's not the case at the moment. With the huge trucks that were sold at very high prices in the 21, 22 timeframe, we're not seeing those carriers come out of the market as fast as they did in the past. And so that's adding to the length of the freight recession. So there's still an excess capacity for the amount of freight in the market at the moment.

speaker
Thomas Wendler
Analyst at Steven Bank

That was perfect, thank you. And then maybe shifting gears a little bit here over to SG&A, 70 pips improvement year over year this quarter, how should we think about the major kind of puts and takes to SG&A in 2025?

speaker
Shelley Hallgrave
EVP and Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Tom, it's Shelley, thanks for your question. Our team, first off, should be commended for their daily efforts in SG&A, and they're continuing to fight against inflation by watching all of the costs that go into that numerator of the equation. We saw some success this quarter in terms of lowering our vehicle maintenance for service owners. We saw an improvement in our advertising as we streamline our approach there. So really great job by our team of just a daily battle to keep those costs low. When you look at the other side of the equation though, we're looking at growing margin and the more profitable business line. So with fixed growth up 9%, and that's got a 58% growth margin to it. Reducing inventory costs, so we get more out of those used vehicles. We're kind of pulling on all levers there. In terms of 2025, I think we're still comfortable with that low 70s guidance. We've maintained it for the last five quarters, so it certainly seems to be more normalized as opposed to just a trend. And we continue to see some improvements quarter over quarter being down 90 basis points from the third quarter. It feels really good about our efforts. And again, our team should be commended.

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

But also

speaker
Michael Ward
Analyst at Freedom Capital

- All right, thank you very much. Go ahead.

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

We're really watching our comp to grow. This is a metric that people don't talk about much, but to me, we're looking at somewhere between 25% on the variable side and 25% on the fixed. And this is how you balance your compensation and also the number of employees you have per location. So that inventory controls, comp to growth, and we talked about the technology, obviously that we're doing. And I think all this is driving this. And if you look at us, probably, and you look at 2025, we're gonna be in that low 70%. I don't think we wanna say we're going below 70 at all. So to be realistic is you're looking to maybe some support or guidance on that. I'd say it's probably somewhere around 70 to 71%.

speaker
Thomas Wendler
Analyst at Steven Bank

Perfect, thank you for answering my questions.

speaker
Julianne
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan. Please go ahead, your line is open.

speaker
Rajat Gupta
Analyst at JPMorgan

Great, thanks for giving the question. I just had one quick one on the truck leasing business. Looks like the truck price was rising. You mentioned replacing the manager's trunk. Could you give us a sense of your outlook there for 2025, keeping the moving parts in mind? Could we expect the field to grow again despite some of the interest rate and the unemployment and have a quick follow-up on your results?

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Well, what I would say to you is number one, we have a headwind on gain on sale. When you look at that from this last year, it was about 160 million down from the previous year and certainly our interest costs were up 124. I think we're gonna still see higher interest costs in 2025 because replacing 3% bonds with 5%. We just did 700 million here in the last 10 to 12 days. And those were, of course, made at higher rates which have a five-year term on them. From the standpoint of the used truck market, we think from the standpoint we're thinking, maybe we hit bottom. So obviously we hope that that's gonna turn in our favor. Remember last year we sold 41,000 units, which was a record for us. And even as we look at January, February going forward, we expect to have a strong first quarter. And that'll help us balance our rental fleet. Our rental fleet was 88,000. And I think at the present time, we've taken out probably close to 10%. And to me, that's gonna make a big difference on utilization, which is key. It doesn't take much. Remember, we don't have to buy more trucks at this point to get revenue or gross profit. We just gotta move our utilization because once we balance our fleet, it's all about utilization. And that's where we're focusing today. Obviously, we're balancing the personnel around the rental business also. So from our perspective, I'd be looking at a little bit ahead when sale on gain, certainly on the interest side. But when you look, we're up in sales from a lease standpoint, from a contract maintenance, and also in logistics. So, overall, I think that we're in good shape and the number is available. You can see it. We were, I think we posted a pre-tax about 717 million of pre-tax. And then income was somewhere around 685. And I would say we'll be around that same area, hopefully a little bit better. We'll get through 2025.

speaker
Rajat Gupta
Analyst at JPMorgan

Got it, got it. That sounds good. And then just on the auto business, on the used car side, I mean, you're still going through the reset of the UK stores. Could you give us a sense of when you expect your used business to start growing again? Maybe if you could break it apart across the US and UK, just in context of the supply challenges of younger cars, when you expect that business to start to grow again. On a unit perspective, obviously, closer have been very strong.

speaker
Randall Seymour
Head of International Operations

Yeah, hi, Rajat, it's Randall. I'll start with the UK. I would say it's gonna continue to be challenged. The estimate for the market for new car next year in the UK is about flat. So I think we're gonna be in a similar market condition. So that's why we've taken the strategy to really focus on how we organically get inventory instead of going to the auction and buying cars that are very difficult to make gross on. So it's more of a gross strategy given the available inventory. Look, we're really focused with our team too is how you maximize our retention of trades when people are buying a new vehicle or a used vehicle. So those are some of the levers we're pulling to get more inventory given the market conditions.

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Yeah, when you strip out, Randall, you strip out the car shop closures or actually our used vehicle business was up on a worldwide basis, but you've got to come. Yeah,

speaker
Rich Shearing
Head of North American Operations

Rajat, you look in the US market then just as a comparison, when the new market's up, that's generates to the used cars. And we saw that certainly when you compare fourth quarter and the activity level there compared to the full year. If you look at the fourth quarter, our used retail sales were up 6% and you had a new car SAR in the fourth quarter that was near 16 million. Whereas for the full year, 24 hour used car retail was up 1%. So I think if we see the SAR that's being forecasted for this year and that 16 to 16 and a half per million car range, I think we'll see used cars correspondingly from a retail standpoint up as well. We have that,

speaker
Tony Porden
Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development

this is probably the last 12 months, right? Next 12 months would be the end of the difficult cycle of the lease returns, right? So then when you go beyond 25 into 26, the lease returns should start kicking back up.

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Well, that's one of the issues we have today is lease returns because leasing went from, say in the premium side from 55%, probably down in the 30s. Our lease business has gone from 25 to 33, but it takes three years before this really starts to impact us. And these are critical vehicles for us because they're young vehicles. We can get good margin on those, plus we can certify them and it makes a big difference, especially on the premium side. Got it, got it.

speaker
Rajat Gupta
Analyst at JPMorgan

Great color. Thanks for answering the question.

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Thanks, Rajat.

speaker
Julianne
Conference Operator

As a reminder to ask a question, please press star followed by one. Our next question comes from David Whiston from Morningstar. Please go ahead, your line is open.

speaker
David Whiston
Analyst at Morningstar

Good afternoon, everyone. Just two questions for me. First on affordability and somewhat related to that is negative equity. Given your clientele, is that really not a problem for you guys right now?

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Well, I think negative equity. When we saw people buying used cars, what, 12 to 18 months ago, a car we were selling for 30 sold for 40, obviously this is an issue. From the standpoint of trade-ins now, we don't see a lot of that in the premium side because we had a lot of leasing and the manufacturers obviously were taking the residual risk on those. So we want more of those vehicles coming back. So I think because of our mix and primarily premium, we don't quite have that customer. I don't know if our team agrees with that, but we're not dealing with that customer. When you look at our subprime business, it's only about 6% across the company.

speaker
David Whiston
Analyst at Morningstar

Where is your subprime exposure actually? Is that more on the import side or is it in the premium luxury space too?

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

It would be on the volume four and in used car primarily. Probably it's more used car than it is new. It's

speaker
David Whiston
Analyst at Morningstar

more used car. And it's been reported that you are working with a Cupra. It's a deal where to come together. I mean, who do you envision that brand's demographic being to buy those vehicles?

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Well, you've read about the discussions we're having with Cupra. This is a 24 to 36 month journey and we really have a lot of open items here. So we really can't comment on where we are, but we are talking with them. We felt that it would be proper to let the market know that we're in discussions, but we don't really have anything to report tangibly at this point.

speaker
David Whiston
Analyst at Morningstar

Thank you.

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Thank you.

speaker
Julianne
Conference Operator

We have no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Penske for any closing remarks.

speaker
Roger Penske
Chairman

Thank you, operator. Thanks everybody. We had a great quarter, a great year, and we're looking forward to 25, hopefully to continue our progress. Thanks everybody.

speaker
Julianne
Conference Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

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