3/12/2021

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for waiting. I'm Margarita Chun from IR, and we would like to welcome everyone to Pampa Energia's fourth quarter 2020 results video conference. We inform you that this event is being recorded, and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the presentation. After the company's remarks, there will be a Q&A session where questions can only be submitted through the Zoom platform available at the browser or through the app. Should any participant need assistance, please contact us through the chat or email. Before proceeding, please read the disclaimer that is located on the second page of the presentation. Let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on Pampa Energia's management beliefs and assumptions, and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions because they relate to future events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions, and other operating factors could also affect the future results of AMPA Energia and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now I'll turn the video conference over to Lida Wang, our investor relations and sustainability officer of Pampa Energia. Lida, you may begin the conference.

speaker
Lida Wang
Investor Relations and Sustainability Officer

Thank you, Margarita. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our conference call. I hope you all are safe and well. In the interest of time, I will summarize the latest events and financial figures reviewing the year and the quarter, focusing on power and EMP. Our CEO, Gustavo Mariani is here and our CFO, Mr. Cohen is here to join us for Q&A. In the 15 years of company here, 2020 was a year to remember. Our resiliency helped us to navigate the complex waters, operating an essential business smoothly amid the pandemic. We kept growing our asset base, achieving another important milestone, by commissioning GENERVA, second CCGT, the most important expansion project in Pampas history. GENERVA is highly demanded due to its efficiency and location and demonstrates exceptional availability since the beginning of operations. Our power generation goal has continually been growing on a sustainable basis, seeking maximum efficiency through renewable energy and highly productive In the last five years, Pampa has more than doubled its install capacity, leading the Argentine power market as the largest IPP. We expect to contribute 280 megawatts from the CCGT expansion at Barragán within a year. I will comment more later. Also, we managed to keep producing relevant levels of gas without significantly curtailing our output, positioning ourselves as the The quality of our fields and the steadiness of our team contributed to the success. After many years of difficulties, petrochemicals is thriving again and back to the production levels of four years ago. Despite the country's recession, we are exporting weaker volumes of SBR to Brazil and witnessing a demand surge for styrene and octane bases linked with the industry recovery and the easing of the lockdown. In a year like 2020, It was also a time to reorganize our portfolio of assets. After 15 years of controlling the country's largest electricity distributor, on December 28, we announced the sale of our controlling stake in Edenor, Tampa's most relevant strategic divestment decision made over the last few years. In light of lesser synergy opportunities and weakening margins, we exited to continue focusing on developing our core businesses, power generation and natural gas production. Also reporting becomes leaner as EDENOR is deconsolidated and classified as discontinued business. Therefore, Pampa under IFRS is equivalent to the restricted group as defined by Pampa's bond covenants equal to the parent company and control and operated subsidiaries. We are waiting the regulators clearance to complete the transaction. So, before moving to the quarter's results, I wanted to comment on Pampa's fine annual figures briefly. These figures included a discontinued operation, but it is operationally a part of Pampa until close. In 2020, revenues decreased by 22% to $2.6 billion, mainly due to the carry freeze and devaluation effect over utility businesses, mainly affecting Emenor. Also, we recorded lower gas sales because CAMESA is back in charge of the grid fuel procurement. Prices and volumes dropped for oil and gas sold and legacy prices were reduced. All of them partially upset by our new capacity power units contribution, Genelva, Barragán, and Pepe Wind Farms. Roughly 45% of our sales were dollar-linked, but almost 70% of our EBDA was dollar-linked, roughly coming from power generation and gas. The EBDA amounted to $750 million in 2020, 18% lower year-on-year for the reasons as pointed before. However, we experienced cost-efficiency gains that helped the EBDA not fall apart. Power generation keeps leading the EVTA share, driven by the increasing number of units with PPAs. As we show on the right below, including excluding E&R, electricity takes 70% of the consolidated adjusted PPA, while oil and gas exposure takes 30%, driven by gas and TGS. Moreover, in 2020, our cap has decreased significantly compared to 2019, especially particularly because of the pandemic restrictions reducing to extension works. More importantly, Genelva expansion was almost already fuel expense in 2020 and the drilling and completion activities at EMP were placed on standby due to the uncertain environment. The expansion investment at Barragan partially upset this drop in capex Most of the 2020 CAPEX was to properly maintain our assets, specifically the rendering of quality service by our regulated utilities. By 2021, we expect EMP activity to strongly rebound, thanks to the Plan GAS GSA, and entering the last stages of the closing to CCGT at Barragan. Moving to the quarter figures, revenues decreased 28% year-on-year, to $599 million, mainly due to the tariff freeze, lower fuel cell supply, and dropping prices of volumes of oil, gas, and legacy plates. Partially upset by Geneva's new PPA. In Q420, roughly 50% of our sales were dollar linked, but 90% in every VA terms was dollar. Again, mainly coming from our core businesses, PPA power capacity, Followed by EMT. Adjusted EVBA maintains stable by only reducing 6% year-on-year amounting to $168 million for the quarter, mainly explained by lower prices in dollars and a lesser volume of oil, gas, and legacy. And carry-free, partially offset by Genelva's PPA, decreasing OPEX and increasing production efficiency. Should we only consider continuing businesses, this means excluding LNR, the ABDA grew 8% during the year, mainly explained by the power of BPA. Quarter on quarter, you see here, decreased the ABDA 28%, mainly due to the seasonality and the evaluation effect offset by petrochemical subside. Moreover, as shown left below in the Thank you for joining us. 2021 may continue this path as domestic demand increases, as industries recover capacity utilization, and life is back to normal. On January 25, the grid recorded a new power demand record high. The last time was three years ago in 2018. Moving to the power generation segment, as seen on slide 8, During the fourth quarter of 2020, we posted an EVDA of $121 million, 13% higher than Q4 2019, mainly given by Geneva Blue CCGT's contribution, higher B2B renewal sales, as well as the devaluation of impact on our peso-nominated expenses. These effects were partially upset mainly by the change to peso and freeze of legacy prices. The end of the winter season, lower spot prices and dispatch in Q420, decreasing the ABDA by 8%. While spot energy comprises 59% of our capacity, it only represented 23% of our power generation ABDA in the quarter, and will keep shrinking until the regulator grants an inflation adjustment. Generation in Q4 was 16% higher year-on-year and 10% up quarter-on-quarter, which exceeded the national grid's growth, which was 7%. Driven by export demand, as explained before, fulfilled with our free CCTs at Penelva, Loma, as they ranked senior in the dispatch. To the lesser extent, our efficient dual fuel units Parque Pilar and Ingeniero White were also requested. However, lesser efficient thermal units such as Piedra Buena and Güemes, they hardly dispatched in the quarter. Keep in mind that the Power generation business model relies on capacity payment. So lower dispatch does not impact the revenue making as long as the availability is outstanding, especially for PPA-based energy. The availability rate in Q4 reached 94% with a installed capacity of 5 gigawatts operated by Pampa, slightly decreased year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter performance mainly due to the major overhauls at Nibiles and Barragán, as well as force and availability at one of our gas turbines in Güemes. Regarding our remaining expansion in the pipeline, our crucial project is closing to combined cycle at Ensenada-Barrarán thermal power plant, as you can see on slide nine. This is a 280 MW CCGP project in the south of Greater Buenos Aires, critical infrastructure for Argentina's grief. The project is almost 30% advanced. We've been doing civil works at the Cohen Tower and starting with a new treatment facility, water treatment facility. We also continue with the building, installing the main pipelines and all the remaining equipment inside the building. 800 people are right now at the site, working with the strictest protocols to minimize the circulation of COVID. Keep in mind that Pampa operates Barragán, and this is the fourth CCGT project for us. Once closed, the install capacity of this plant will amount to 847 megawatts, contributing to the grid, one of the most efficient thermal units. In 2020, The national gas production was thoroughly affected by the weak investment landscape that began about two years ago. The graph we see in the slide shows the evolution of production and dependency on gas imports and liquid fuels to fulfill the demand, which is more inefficient, pay with hard currency, and way more expensive than local gas, among other issues. As the domestic production increased, The production increase imports reliance shrank, but that was until 2020. The production fell 7% year on year in 2020, but the demand remained stable. Therefore, the demand deficit was covered with imported gas and liquid fuels. We expect this negative trend on production to reverse as plant gas is in place since January of this year. So moving to the results of EMP, we can see on slide 11, in Q4 2020, we posted an adjusted EBITDA of $19 million, similar to Q4 2019, mainly because of lower gas volumes and prices partially offset by lesser costs related to the activity downturn and efficiency. We recorded $24 million of lifting costs. 40% improvement compared to the same period of last year, driven by the evaluation and higher productivity at competitive blocks such as the Mangrucho. By DOE produce, we reached $6 of less than cost, 34% less than the Q4-19, but higher quarter-on-quarter because of seasonality. Despite the harsh environment, our oil and gas production decreased only 8% year-on-year and 7% per quarter in Q420, reaching 44,000 barrels VOE per day, of which 90% was gas. The quarter-on-quarter reduction is mainly explained by seasonality. The variations are in line with the country's changes. On the oil side, which represented 27% of the revenue segment of the quarter, Volume still marginally decreased year on year to 4.7 thousand barrels per day, mainly impacted by the lockdown, although improving significantly since December. This was partially offset by the conventional production from Los Blancos, a productive block formerly part of Chirete, where we discovered oil after 34 years in the northeastern basin. During Q4, Oil prices decreased 18% year-on-year, reaching $41 per barrel, bouncing back from the sharp fall at the beginning of the lockdown. Domestic demand gradually recovers since September, but still lower than pre-quarantine levels, placing 86% of our production in the local market, and the remaining is exported. Regarding gas, as we can see on slide 12, The Q4 reached an average of 239 million QE fee per day of volume sold, 21% lower year-on-year, mainly due to the lower exports to Chile and weak industrial demand, which is still recovering since the lockdown. These effects were partially offset by higher volumes of Tuca Mesa and our new CCGT at Genelva. Compared to the last quarter, volume sold decreased 10% due to the seasonality. Lower pricing impacted negatively on the rate given equation. Therefore, the activity collapsed and higher depletion took place. Therefore, production was lower at our gas-bearing blocks, but was partially upset by inquisites at El Mangrucho, a block with outstanding productivity, wholly owned and operated by us. In Q4, El Mangrucho reached 160 million QE fee per day of production, 6% higher than the last year and contributing close to 70% of our overall gas, ranked the four largest gas producing block in the Uquina Basin. During the fourth quarter of 2020, our average price was $21 per million BTU. 17% than last year, explained by lower exports, resumed just in December due to the high demand of CAMESA to fulfill power exports. Also affected CAMESA's reductions on the reference price that also impacted in industrial and spot prices. Though CAMESA tenders during Q4 2020 were around 2.2 in the Neuquina Basin, reflecting the off-peak season, Since 2021, we are selling about 70% of our gas under the PlanGas GSA to Kamesa and Discos. As you can see on right below, 2020 production is skewed towards Kamesa, but placing an increasing share for vertical integration with Genelva Plus CCGT, rising from last call 22% to 26% share right now. However, As of 2021, we assigned that gas to CAMESA as a part of the PlanGas. By the end of 2020, the government launched a long-waited PlanGas tender, setting a turning point for the business. This four-year gas supply agreement, GSA, seeks to revert the declining trend on gas production in Argentina. Pampa was the third largest awardee Thank you very much. deliver additional gas of 66 million cubic feet per day, priced at $4.7 per million BTU during the winter. The surplus from base production will be sold to the spot market. Thus, we will continue focusing on the development of Thai gas with an aggregate investment of more than $250 million over the four years of the plant, which allows us to expect an increasing profitability and cash flow generation. Before the planned gas tender and given the uncertainties in the gas prices, we reassess our activities with no drilling and completion in Q4 2020 and we register the lowest activity in 2020. in line with the sector's move. However, I mentioned before since the tender award in plant gas GSA, our production is estimated to grow 28% during the peak period compared to 2020, the highest increase among the leading gas players. In 2020, despite the challenging context, we recorded at 1.4 positive reserve replacement ratio for the first consecutive year and an average life of almost nine years. The proven reserves reach 142 million BOE, 5% higher than last year, and 90% of that is gas, being explained by the better production performance and well recovery factor at El Mangrucho, and to a lesser extent, this new oil-bearing block Los Blancos. We also succeeded in certifying shale research from Baca Huerta Formation 2.5 times the volume recorded in 2019. Finally, moving on to slide 15, our sound balance sheet grants us some degrees of freedom compared to other industry peers during this challenging environment. In this slide, we show all the company's layers, but let's focus on the restricted group for covenant purposes. The restricted group Rostec recorded $1.6 billion, similar to last September, 88% denominated in dollars, which was 86% in September 2020, bearing an increased interest rate of 7.5%. Average life decreased slightly to 8.4 years. The cash amounted to $466 million, which is 34%. 33% higher than the reported in September 2020, mainly due to positive operating cash flow and positive working capital as PSO's sales outstanding improved and stabilized at 80 days, partially upset by peso debt payment and buybacks. The restricted group's net debt decreased 9% compared to last quarter, amounting to $1.1 billion, and the net leverage ratio improved from 2.8 times to 2.4 times. It is worth highlighting that the cumulative maturities from now until 2022 almost amounted to the equivalent of $203 million, of which 92% is in pesos. Pampa consolidated with affiliates recorded a net debt of $1.4 billion, $90 million less than last September, mainly due to the cash increase and deconsolidation of Adenor. Net leverage ratio was maintained at two times, just like the last quarter. Regarding the share buybacks, the shareholders meeting of last December approved to cancel 5.6 million treasury ADRs in the process of registration before the Argentine public registry of organizations. As of today, our outstanding capital amounts to 56.8 million ADRs. The board also approved a new program up to $30 million with a price cap of $16. So this concludes the presentation. Now I will turn to Margarita. She will organize the floor for questions. Thank you so much.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you, Lida. The floor is now open for questions. If you have a question, please send us through this platform, Zoom. We will read and answer them in the order received. Also, please make sure your name and company are adequately displayed to introduce you to the audience. Please lower your hand once your question is answered. Should any participant need assistance, send us a message or raise your hand. Please hold while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from Guillermo Levy from Morgan Stanley. The first question is about the EMP business. What should we think in terms of cost in the next quarters as natural gas production starts to pick up in context of the new plant gas? And following that, And following that, the second question is also related to the E&P business. What we should expect in terms of prices for the industrial segment going forward, since it was not among the segments contemplated in the plant gas?

speaker
Lida Wang
Investor Relations and Sustainability Officer

Hi, Guilherme. How are you? Morning. About costs, I think it's going to be stable at 70 cents lifting costs for real and BTU. Gustavo Mariani speaking here.

speaker
Gustavo Mariani
CEO

Regarding prices for the industrial segment, you know that they are coming from a very depressed level. So for the industrial segment, prices are going up in a significant way this year going forward. So that reality has to be digested by that segment, which is not something easy. It's not something easy, so our commercial guys are having a tough time. But I think that going forward, all the segments are going towards the average price of the plant gas. So adjusted by the fact that the industrial segment has a very good credit, it pays on time, So we expect a slightly less price for the industrial segment than the average of the plant gas. So something around $3.30, $3.40 going forward. Maybe that's not going to be the number initially, but as time passes, I think that that is where and where prices should be going.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you, Gustavo. Our second question Let me mute. Our second question comes from Daniel Guardiola from BTG Pactual. He has two questions regarding EMP and two questions regarding power generation. The first question about the EMP is, can you share with us what is the expected EBITDA for 2021 and also break it down by unit? I'm especially interested in the upstream EBITDA for 2021 now that Plant Gas 4 is in place. and Gas Production is expected to reactivate in 2021. And considering the underinvestment seen in 2020 in the upstream segment, how challenging it will be to grow gas production in 2021 in order to owner-plan gas for? What is the expected upstream capex in 2021?

speaker
Lida Wang
Investor Relations and Sustainability Officer

So, hi, Daniel, how are you? We don't give guidance, though, but, you know, plant gas numbers are all public. The budget that The board approved for upstream EMT, ABTA, it's $200 million of ABTA. This contains the fact that 70% of our production will be destined under this GSA. Basically is that the production is already reactivated. It's already, we are around 7 million kilometers per day Thank you very much. and the board approved $150 million, 150 for EMP only, but might go higher than that, basically because we might be doing another side project related to gas, EMP, but everything inside the discipline of the cashflow. Urs?

speaker
Gustavo Mariani
CEO

I think the 150 was what the board approved at the end of last year. Probably the figure this year is going to be higher in the area of 180, taking into account the round two of the planned gas, where we were aggressive and we committed more volume of gas for the next four winters. So that's why CAPEX are going up. But keep in mind, when you see Pampa going forward, that most of the investment or all the investment infrastructure in order to comply with the increased volume that we have committed for the plant gas will be done this year. So this is the year of the highest CAPEX. Thank you very much. Thank you, Gustavo. We have

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

One follow-up question from Daniel Guardiola. It's regarding the power generation business. So the question is about what portion of the total power generation segment revenue came from PPA and regarding the potential pacification of the PPA, how it could affect Pampa in comparison to the legacy spot that was already pacified.

speaker
Lida Wang
Investor Relations and Sustainability Officer

Yes. So, what portion of the total power generation segment revenues came from PPAs? Basically, more than 70%. 70% is from PPAs and the rest, and decreasing, it's the legacy. And the second question, I don't have it. ¿La segunda? ¿Una pregunta, Valeria? ¿Precificación? Pregunta...

speaker
Gustavo Mariani
CEO

Okay, regarding the potential, I don't see the question, but I think it was regarding the potential specification of the PPAs. So answering what would be the impact for Pampa of that is impossible because that's something that has not happened. And if it would have happened going forward, it will depend on how this peso contract will be adjusted going forward. And so of the pace of the adjustment, the vis-a-vis the devaluation of the local currency. So it's very hard to give you an answer on how that would impact. But regarding this point, I would like to, sorry if I repeat myself because I've been saying this for, for I think two years already. And we don't believe that within a macro situation under control, this is something that is going to happen. It didn't happen in 2020, which was the first year of this new administration. That was the year of the pandemic. And even in that situation, The government took the decision to respect the contract. And that is because not respecting those contracts has terrible consequences in the medium term. Tremendous negative consequences if this would happen. As you know, since 2003, the only way that Argentina attracted a huge infrastructure investment as power generation sector requires, or energy in general, is through long-term dollar contracts. And this government is doing that same thing right now, for example, with the Palangas. So... So again, unless there is a huge disruption of the macro variables, meaning basically a huge devaluation, which is something that we are not envisioning at all this year. Actually, we were much more concerned during 2020 of the macro variables and we think that going forward this year because of several reasons and I don't want to talk too much but we can go through that later. The macro situation is much more under control than last year so we are not envisioning a distorted year in terms of macro variables. So we don't see PPAs being Unilaterally Touch this year. I also want to give you a couple of more information. There are quite a few PPAs which are maturing beginning this year and next year. So about one gigawatt of PPAs is maturing within the next year. Thank you very much. and many of our colleagues will be in significant financial distress and even state-owned colleagues will be under that situation. Reducing 20% of the PPAs would only impact around 3% In the total cost of generation in the country. So when you look at the numbers, and I'm sure that the reason why the government didn't do it last year after having talked during the electoral campaign and even analyzed this issue was because they came to the conclusion that it has tremendous consequences and doesn't make sense. So... That's been for a long time already, and as time passes, we are more and more concerned of that, more and more convinced of that, sorry, not concerned.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you, Gustavo. Our next question comes from Ezequiel Fernandez from Balance. He has three questions already, one by other. The first one is, any update on how the conversation with government is going regarding an increase in the remuneration for legacy power units?

speaker
Lida Wang
Investor Relations and Sustainability Officer

Hi, well, legacy capacity. Well, so we, as we said very few times, our Power Generation people gather as a larger IPP with other IPPs with the authorities. We presented the case. We showed them that there's many legacy capacity that is very important for, critical for their functioning in Argentina and some regions. They need urgently some kind of adjustment. And we already exposed, they already know, they took notice, but... So far, nothing formal yet, but they understand, they know it. The second question was, could the closing of Central Barragán require any additional equity contribution? Gabi.

speaker
Mr. Cohen
CFO

Yes, hello. No, we are not expecting any capital contribution for Barragan. Barragan is advancing to some extent on schedule. It will be completed by the first semester of 2022 and we remind that it's a low leverage company and Thank you, Gabi. We have one more question from Ezequiel. How much was your total capex in Q4 without considering Edenor?

speaker
Lida Wang
Investor Relations and Sustainability Officer

Hi, Ezequiel. This is in the presentation. So without Eleanor, well, with Eleanor, it's $100 million in the Q4. Now, without Eleanor, that's in page six, okay? Without Eleanor, it's only $60 million, all right? And this is without Eleanor, but also including the affiliates at our own mission.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you, Lida. Our next question comes from Alejandro de Michelis from Now Securities. Could you please indicate how you are seeing the payment cycle from CAMESA and also for gas sales under PlanGas?

speaker
Lida Wang
Investor Relations and Sustainability Officer

Hi, Alejandro. How are you? So the payment cycle right now from CAMESA is around 80 days. That's the collection days. That's the average that we are Thank you very much. PlanGas, well, you know, PlanGas, the regulation about the GSA stipulates to get paid right in the next few days, the final invoice should be approved for January transaction. Once that happens, we should be collecting anytime soon, but it's not due yet. Okay. Very important thing that I didn't mention, and this is very important because it highlights the commitment, I will say, something that I haven't seen. Plan Gas stipulated that if there's any false situation or there's a delay payment from the government, the money that you invoice can be used for as a tax credit. And that was totally implemented in the Argentine IRS a few days ago. and it can be used for paying any tax obligations such as income tax, VAT. So you can use it and it's already online in the platform.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you, Lida. Please hold while we pull for more questions.

speaker
Lida Wang
Investor Relations and Sustainability Officer

Constantino.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Okay, our next question comes from Constantinos Papaglias. What destination could we expect of excess volumes above Plant Gas 4? Yes, that is the first question.

speaker
Gustavo Mariani
CEO

Okay. I think he refers to the fact that we are producing more in the winter. And where are we thinking about placing that excess gas that we will produce in the winter? Is it correct, Lida, that you are more used to these questions?

speaker
Lida Wang
Investor Relations and Sustainability Officer

What is he referring to? So basically he says, what happens... We have committed roughly 5 million... Sorry, sorry about that, I was muted.

speaker
Gustavo Mariani
CEO

The explanation of the planned gas for Pampa. We have committed roughly flat production of 5 million cubic meters of natural gas per day that will be sold to CAMESA and the distribution companies throughout the year. In excess of that, we have committed, because that was part of the planned gas, You were obliged to commit for an additional 30%, so in our case it's around 2.1 million cubic meters of natural gas per day, that we will be selling based to the industry at around the prices that I already referred. During the summer time, not the winter season, we have also presented an export contract that is awaiting for government approval, but we are optimistic that we will soon obtain governmental approval for that contract. Thank you very much. Thank you.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you, Gustavo. There is a follow-up question on EMP business. Do you see industrial user gas prices converging to plant gas prices in 2021?

speaker
Gustavo Mariani
CEO

I think I already talked about it. I see a conversion. It probably will take some time. And also, Keep in mind that because the industry pays sooner than CAMESA and the distribution companies, the exposure is less, so the industry will have a discount vis-a-vis the prices of the plant gas because of sooner collection and It's also good to optimize your collection risk. So I think there's going to be a small discount that is going to narrow in the next few years. That is my expectation.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you, Gustavo. Our next question, a follow-up of Constantino's. Do you see in the power generation any organic growth?

speaker
Gustavo Mariani
CEO

No, we don't have any plans right now to continue expanding. We are analyzing some small projects, but conditions are not there yet for us to commit with a new investment.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you, Gustavo. Our next question comes from Alejandra Andrade of JP Morgan. Can you also discuss any updates on a potential exchange for 2023?

speaker
Mr. Cohen
CFO

Yes, hello. Well, in that respect, the only thing that we can say is that our expectation is to address that transaction before 2023. That's the only thing that we can say. And if you look at our past transactions of the group, as a policy, we try to be ready to All the time on the market and look at market conditions and trying to go whenever we feel comfortable about a successful execution.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you, Gaby. There is a follow-up question of Alejandra. Can you give us an update of the CAPEX guidance for 2021?

speaker
Lida Wang
Investor Relations and Sustainability Officer

Hi, Ale, how are you? We don't give guidance, but we do have a budget approved again for power generation. This year is just maintenance. The restricted group, it's $40 million of capex because we don't have any projects, expansion projects in the restricted group. We have Arradamba, that's outside, newly funded, and then that's a JV with YPF 50-50. What else? EMP, the budget approved, it's $150 million for this year, but the four-year program is $250 million, though it looks like it's going to be over than that because we have side projects that link with the gas that we might execute. And then Petken and Holden is just $10 million. So the restricted group 2021, it's around $200 million. Okay.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you, Lida. Our next question comes from Andres Cardona from Citibank. When looking at your existing portfolio, is there any assets that you consider non-core? And are you actively looking at M&A opportunities? Any sector in particular in which you are seeing opportunities?

speaker
Gustavo Mariani
CEO

Hi, no. Hi, Andres. At this moment, there is no asset within our portfolio that we consider non-core, that we are actively looking to divest. Regarding M&A opportunities, it's part of our history, so we are all the time monitoring the market and very, very Active studying opportunities. We've been looking at the opportunities on the power generation segment. That would be the only one that was with high probability of occurrence, but It was at one point, it's not anymore. So at this point, there are nothing significant or relevant in terms of M&A transaction that we are looking for.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you. Our next question. comes from Raul Bat. He has two questions. By when do you expect a Dedenor sale to complete? And do you have any funding needs for 2020?

speaker
Mr. Cohen
CFO

Yes. Hello. No, this year, basically, based on our base case, we are free cash flow positive. And unless there is any Thank you very much.

speaker
Lida Wang
Investor Relations and Sustainability Officer

Hi, Raúl. You asked about an enormous sale. It can be any minute because what we just need, not limited to, but we just need the regulator's approval. The shareholders of Pampa already approved in February of this year. So that's it.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you, Lida. Please hold while we poll for more questions. Thank you. So this concludes the question and answer section. We will turn to Lida for final remarks.

speaker
Gustavo Mariani
CEO

A couple of comments that I would like to make. One is regarding plant gas to to complete what has been answered, PlanGas. From my perspective, it's the best incentive program that has been designed so far. I don't know why it was called PlanGas 4 originally, but it's the third one since 2012. But from my perspective, it has several benefits, like that the price Thank you very much. Thank you. has been greatly improved because of the fiscal certificate. So as Lida explained, in case there is a delay in the payment, that allow us to use this fiscal certificate and use it to cancel taxes. So in a way, it's like We have a certainty of collection for the part of the incentive that comes from the Secretary of Energy. The only thing that I criticize or that is unfortunate, but I think it's quite reasonable given the special year that we have in 2020 because of the pandemic, is that the program was announced or that the bidding process came too late in the year. So unfortunately, most of our colleagues were not very aggressive in terms of being able to provide gas, especially for the winter period. That's when... Thank you very much. So the only critic that I have for the plant gas is that it would have been better if we would have come early last year and the industry, I'm sure, would have reacted more aggressively. But again, it's great news for Pampa. We are turning the page on our EMP segment that has been suffering for the past two years. and with this program we are turning the page. We are very optimistic about the impact that we'll have on Pampa's figure this year and going forward and we still believe that we have even more capacity to increase our production during the winter beginning in 2022 if there are new Mariano De La Fuente, And that improves the fiscal figures of Argentina because it pays less than the imports and it also saves international reserves, which is also macroeconomically very, very important. So plant gas is a game changer for Pampa and also excellent news for the country. And the other thing that I wanted to highlight was about the, I don't think there were any questions about that, about the repurchase of shares that we have been doing. And I think just to put it in perspective, we started repurchasing our own shares, I think, in late 2018. Since then, we have repurchased more than 30% of our own capital. So in terms of ADR, we went from 83 million ADRs to a total outstanding ADR of 56 million currently. So that is more than a 30% reduction. And we've been able to do so because of our strong cash flow generation that Gabi has just mentioned. and we were able to do so while in the meantime doing huge expansion project as as Genelva and being very aggressive on the plant gas as we are doing this year and on the side of the depth we did that also Thank you very much.

speaker
Mr. Cohen
CFO

Just to highlight what Gustavo is saying, if you consider a normalized free cash flow of about $200 million, our net debt to free cash flow is slightly above 5x, and we consider that very healthy for us.

speaker
Gustavo Mariani
CEO

That is what I wanted to highlight, these two issues that I think were not covered enough during the Q&A. Any more questions or no more questions?

speaker
Lida Wang
Investor Relations and Sustainability Officer

I think the time is up. No more questions. If you have any questions, just reach us out. We are always available for you. Thank you for taking your time and joining us today. We really appreciate it. Please take care. and contact us. And before you leave, please, there is going to be a small poll. Give us your feedback and any suggestion you have. Have a good day.

speaker
Mr. Cohen
CFO

Thank you. Bye bye. Bye. Thank you for joining.

speaker
Margarita Chun
Investor Relations

Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. Thank you for joining. You may disconnect at this time. Goodbye.

Disclaimer

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