Pembina Pipeline Corp. Ordinary Shares (Canada)

a star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Friday, August 9th, 2024. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Toucanel, VP of Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Joanna. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Pembina's conference call and webcast to review highlights from the second quarter of 2024. On the call today, we have Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer, Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, along with other members of Pemina's leadership team, including Jarrett Sprout, Janet Luduka, Stu Taylor, and Chris Sherman. I would like to remind you that some of the comments made today may be forward-looking in nature and are based on Pemina's current expectations, estimates, judgments, and projections. Looking statements we may express or imply today are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further, some of the information provided refers to non-GAAP measures. To learn more about these forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures, please see the company's MD&A, dated August 8, 2024, for the period ended June 30, 2024, as well as the press release Pemina issued yesterday. All of these documents are available online at Pemina.com and on both CDAR and EDGAR. I will now turn things over to Scott to make some opening remarks.

Thanks, Dan. Another strong quarter was highlighted by record-adjusted EBITDA of $1.091 billion, record-adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $837 million, and record-adjusted cash flow per share of $1.44. Record results were driven in part by the closing of the Alliance Huxable acquisition effective April 1st, as Pemina benefited from increased ownership in those assets. Both Huxable and Alliance have been performing well, and we are excited to welcome new employees to the Pemina team. With the release of our second quarter results yesterday, we were also pleased to announce that we have acquired the remaining 14.6% interest in Oxable US operations from Williams, effective August 1st. Since the Williams Oxable acquisition and the Oxable assets have been outperforming Pemina's expectations, and we are pleased to now have fully consolidated ownership of all Oxable assets, thereby further simplifying corporate reporting and enhancing the ability to pursue long-term opportunities. Pemina's business continues to deliver exceptional results. Volume growth across the Canadian energy industry is leading to higher volumes in our pipelines, gas plants, and fractionators. And while we would prefer to see higher natural gas prices for our producing customers, the current weakness, along with robust NGL pricing and strong oil prices, is leading to continued strength in Pemina's marketing business. Given the strong year-to-date results, the incremental benefit of the latest stock stable acquisition And our outlook for the remainder of the year, Pemina has raised its 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $4.2 billion to $4.35 billion, which at the midpoint represents a $100 million increase over the previous range. Finally, the second quarter was further highlighted by three other exciting developments. The first was the positive final investment decision on the Cedar LNG project. We are excited to be moving forward with a project that will deliver industry-leading, low-carbon, cost-competitive Canadian LNG to overseas markets and contribute to global energy security while delivering jobs and economic prosperity to the local region. The CEDAR LNG project aligns squarely with Pemina's strategy, offers attractive economics, and is supported by a contracting strategy that prudently mitigates cost risk. The second was PGI's transaction with Whitecap Resources. which included the acquisition of a 50% interest in Whitecap's KBOB complex and an obligation to fund further Latour area infrastructure development. We also signed long-term take or pay agreements on Pemina's pipelines and fractionators. The deal is another example of PGI and Pemina's ability to provide unique and value-added solutions to support the growth demands of our customers. And a third was bringing the Phase 8 Peace Pipeline expansion into service, marking the culmination of more than 10 years and more than $4 billion expansion program that was driven by growing customer demand for transportation services to support development in the WCSB, including the Montney, DuVernay, and other resource plays. The Peace Pipeline system plays an important role within Pemina's integrated value chain, and I would like to thank our many customers, employees, and communities that have supported Pemina to deliver this major infrastructure build-out. As a result of the expansions and ongoing optimization efforts, Pemina is confident that its extensive pipeline network is best positioned to capture future volume growth and allow the company to continue to offer customers unparalleled advantages through safe, reliable, flexible, and cost-competitive services together with differentiated market access. I will now turn the call over to Cam to discuss highlights from our second quarter.

Thanks, Scott. As Scott noted, Pemina reported a record second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.091 billion, This represents a 33% increase over the same period in the prior year and remaining a 21% increase adjusting for the Alliance OxABLE ownership. In pipelines, factors impacting the second quarter primarily included higher adjusted EBITDA from Alliance due to stronger asset performance combined with increased ownership following the Alliance OxABLE acquisition. The northern pipeline system outage and wildfires in the second quarter of 2023 which had an impact of $29 million with no similar impact in the second quarter of 2024. Contractual inflation adjustments on tolls and the earlier recognition of take or pay deferred revenue on the peace pipeline system and the reactivation of the Nipissi pipeline in the third quarter of 2023. In facilities, Devin Glennie, FACTORS IMPACTING THE SECOND QUARTER INCLUDED THE INCLUSION WITHIN FACILITIES OF ADJUSTED EBITDA FROM OXABLE FOLLOWING THE ALLIANCE OXABLE ACQUISITION. Devin Glennie, THE NORTHERN PIPELINE SYSTEM OUTAGE AND WILDFIRES IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2023 WHICH HAD AN IMPACT OF $18 MILLION WITH NO SIMILAR IMPACTS IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2024 AND HIGHER INTERRUPTIBLE VOLUMES ON CERTAIN PGI ASSETS. In marketing and new ventures, second quarter results reflect the net impact of increased ownership interest in Oxable following the Alliance Oxable acquisition, as well as higher NGL margins at Oxable. Higher margins from the Western Canadian NGL marketing business due to higher marketed volumes, lower natural gas prices, and higher propane, butane, and condensate prices. Realized losses on NGL-based derivatives compared to gains in the second quarter of 2023. partially offset by higher realized gains on crude oil-based commodity related derivatives, as well as higher general and administrative expense. Finally, the corporate segment was largely unchanged. Earnings in the second quarter were $479 million. This represents a 32% increase over the same period in the prior year. In addition to the factors impacting adjusted EBITDA, earnings in the second quarter were impacted by Unrealized losses recognized by PGI on interest rate derivative financial instruments compared to gains in the second quarter of 2023. Gains associated with the derecognition of the provisions related to the financial assurances provided by PEMNA, which were transferred to CEDAR LNG following the positive FID in June. Larger unrealized losses on renewable power purchase agreements. An unrealized loss on NGL-based derivatives compared to an unrealized gain in the second quarter of 2023. Higher depreciation and amortization, net finance costs, and acquisition and integration fees. Pipeline volumes of 2.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter represent an 11% increase compared to the same period in the prior year. The increase was primarily due to the increase in ownership interests in Alliance, Higher volumes on the Peace Pipeline System resulting from earlier recognition of take or pay deferred revenue and the impact of the Northern Pipeline System outage and the wildfires in the second quarter of 2023, combined with the reactivation of the Nipissi Pipeline. Facilities volumes of approximately 0.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter represent a 14% increase compared to the same period in the prior year. The increase was primarily due to OxABLE volume recognition following the Alliance OxABLE acquisition, higher volumes at Younger as the second quarter of 2023 was impacted by the Northern Pipeline System outage and the wildfires, combined with higher interruptible volumes on certain PGI assets. Turning to our outlook for 2024, in addition to raising our 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance, as Scott mentioned previously, Pemina has also revised its 2024 capital investment program to $1.3 billion. The revised outlook reflects an approximate $140 million net increase when compared to our original 2024 budget of $1.16 billion inclusive of then unsanctioned additional growth capital. Drivers of the increase primarily include the sanctioning of PGI's Wapiti expansion and K3 cogeneration facility, other increases in revenue-generating capital within pipelines, and additional non-recoverable sustaining capital. The revised capital investment program reflects approximately $300 million for contributions to equity-accounted investees, including $240 million of equity contributions to Cedar LNG incurred in the first half of 2024, with no further contributions to Cedar expected in 2024. Pemina continues to expect the capital program to be funded with cash flow from operating activities net of dividends, maintaining its strong balance sheet. At June 30th, based on the trailing 12 months, the ratio of proportionally consolidated senior debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.6 times, which is at the low end of our target range. It's important to note, however, that given the April 1st closing date of the Alliance OxABLE acquisition, the ratio includes all the debt associated with the transaction, but it's currently only capturing one quarter of EBITDA contribution. On a normalized basis, this ratio would be approximately 3.3 times. I'll now turn things back to Scott.

Thanks, Cam. In closing, I'd like to reiterate that for all of us at Pemina, it has been a strong first half of 2024, and we are looking forward to continued strength throughout the remainder of the year. Amidst the backdrop of industry momentum and an expectation of robust volume growth, we continue to see increased utilization across our systems, pursue many opportunities to accretively invest capital, and execute our strategy within our financial guardrails. Thank you for joining us this morning and for your continued support. Operator, please open the line up for questions.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touchstone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. Your first question comes from Jeremy Tonette at JPMorgan Chase. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Morning, Jeremy.

Just want to dial in on the acquisitions a little bit more. Oxable Alliance here, it seems like they're outperforming our expectations. And just wondering if you could talk a bit more, I guess, about the outperformance. And really curious about looking forward, I guess. It seems like full ownership would bring new opportunities to Pembina and how that kind of impacts, I guess, the marketing opportunities as well. Just any more color on how we should think about what's possible there going forward.

Jeremy, a lot of the strength really was driven at the OxAble level. Obviously, the low gas price and high NGL prices had a strong impact on that business. As we pointed out in our comments, we'd obviously like a little higher gas price for all of our producing community and hopefully add to increased drilling. But in the short term here, that low gas price has really led to strong frack spreads across the business, especially at OxAble. You know, when you go back to our acquisition presentation and thesis, we talked about some of the longer-term synergies, you know, more towards the end of the decade, and we think having full control of OxABLE will allow us to continue to capture those and give us a leg up in terms of capturing those. It's a little too early to start talking about what exactly those are in terms of where we're headed, but we're actively working and planning on those today.

got it uh fair enough thank you for that and in the release i think there's language that highlights the expectations for six percent four percent conventional and gas processing volume growth uh respectively in 24 and just wondering is this a similar trajectory you kind of see in the near term post 24 in general at a high level and i guess my question is if you're expecting kind of the mid single digit growth um is this filling latent capacity on the system or is this more capital intensity effectively how much capital investment will be required to uh attain that kind of mid single digit growth mid cycle as you as could be possible oh hey jeremy it's jared here so first i'll talk a little bit about what we're seeing kind of in 2024 with respect to um our conventional volume growth and then i'll touch on pgi just for a second

So you saw in our, I think in our press release, we dropped it from roughly 9% to 6%. You know, that really equates to approximately, it's not that much material amount of volume. It's roughly 30,000 barrels. And what we did see in the first half of the year, which you'll probably recall from the previous quarters, was we saw a significant reduction in volumes in January here in Western Canada with some extreme weather. That obviously set a lot of our customers back, and they really didn't make that up. We saw a larger turnaround season kind of in that May, June than we expected from some of our third parties. All of the PGI turnarounds went as expected and the Phase 8 went, that commissioning went extremely well. And then we had a short unplanned outage at our FRAC complex, specifically RFS1 that restricted some C2 plus volume. So that's a big portion of the overall reduction. And then the latter half of the year, you know, across a couple of hundred receipt points, the conventional system it's really just timing of development it it you know that that we're seeing from our customers it's not that they're not drilling in these liquid rich areas it's just you know that that forecasting of when the volumes are coming on that kind of leads into you know there's been some public disclosure recently around some dryer gas either being shut in or not completed we're not really seeing the effects of that um as you know like the majority of our pgi assets all of our pgi assets they produce significantly liquid-rich gas. And you're actually seeing that in the overall revenue volume increase in PGI. I think we talked from 3% to 4% or 4% to 5%. We haven't brought on any new gas plants, so we're seeing really strong gas growth where we have lots of condensate and lots of NGLs, which is extremely positive. And I think one of the features of our footprint is that we don't process a lot of the drier gas with all that said you know our overall thesis for western canadian you know liquids growth hasn't really changed in that mid digit and and as we think about latent capacity versus expanded capacity when you're in alberta kind of now that phase eight's in service kind of gordondale follow the map all the way down to fox creek into edmonton that's going to be kind of latent capacity use and or pump station, no more linear assets required to get those volumes into the Edmonton market. And then as you go west of Gordondale into northeast BC, that's where we'll require some incremental pipelines, et cetera. So that's kind of the distinction. And that's kind of all been built into our three-year capital forecast and all part of our three-year cash flow per share guidance that we gave at Investor Day.

Anything else to add, Cam, or stuff?

So maybe just, I guess, mid-cycle CapEx or near-term CapEx run rate levels, any high-level thoughts there? Is there more processing CapEx that's required to kind of hit that mid-single-digit growth?

Jeremy, I think I'd go back to our message from investor day, which was, if you look at this year, next year, we're probably running right around that free cash flow neutral level. The levels that you're seeing in 2024, 2025, it's somewhere in between that billion to billion and a quarter range is probably the run rate for the next couple of years. assuming we continue to execute on the plan and the projects that Jared outlined. As Jared mentioned, you know, obviously a big part of that is obviously completing RFS 4, which comes into service in the first half of 2026. And likewise, as we continue to move forward and and build out that Northeast BC capital, Northeast BC transportation capital that Jarrett referred to, that'll be in that same timeframe as well, providing that all sort of goes ahead with that. And then once you get to sort of the 2026 timeframe outward, obviously the base core business capital starts to trail off as some of those assets come into service. Our BD teams are obviously very hard at work, and we continue to see opportunities, but for the next couple of years, I think that's probably the way we're thinking about it.

Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from Praneeth Satish at Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Hi, all. Thanks. Good morning. Maybe just on CEDAR, if you can give us an update here in terms of... reassigning the capacity that you hold with third parties? Are you seeing strong interest from customers there? What's the timeline to announce that contract? And also, how committed are you to kind of reassigning that entire 1.5 MTPA? And could you keep more of it and end up marketing more than 0.3 MTPA with your marketing group?

Hi, it's Stu. So we're now following the FID announcement and progress. We are ramping up our marketing efforts, looking at the remaining capacity of Cedar. I will say that as our project became more real with the FID announcement, our interest is high. We've been working with a number of potential off-takers that we've had conversations for a long period of time but we do have some renewed and new interest coming in as well. So we're excited and optimistic of progressing those conversations to completion with a target to have as much of that completed in 2024. So we're optimistic and excited and continue to make progress with potential offtakers.

Got it. And maybe just switching gears and moving over to the Bakken, I have two questions here on the Vantage pipeline. First, if you can kind of remind us what the utilization is on the pipe and whether Vantage can be expanded any further with pumps. And then secondly, to the extent that there is excess capacity and it can be expanded at a low cost, can you satisfy all of your Dow ethane contract with Vantage? I guess, what would the cost be of moving ethane on Vantage versus some of the other options that you're considering?

Good morning. Thanks for the question. So, yeah, we currently do have some white space on the Vantage pipeline that is capable, obviously, of bringing more ethane up into the egg system and then into the petrochemical feedstock takers there in Western Canada. With respect to our portfolio, with respect to Dow, we're kind of taking a more diversified approach to this. So we think of it as ethane that comes out of our RFS complex That is C2 plus being extracted in Western Canada and then broken into its parts and fed into the crackers here in Alberta. There is the C2 extraction component that's more like mainline extraction, like our Empress or younger facilities that feed straight ethane into into the system into the crackers. And then you have the vantage system that can bring product up from North Dakota. So across those kind of three portfolios, Right now, we're just evaluating what's the best use of capital to basically fulfill our entire Dow commitment. So we won't really specifically talk to, you know, where the majority of that capital is going to go right now. I think in that industry we talked about here in the next couple of quarters, we'll be able to provide some more insight on where that capital would be going. But Vantage is definitely a part of the overall portfolio of consideration. to meet that contract.

Thank you.

Thank you. Next question comes from Patrick Kenney at National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, guys. Just maybe quickly on the OxAble or Alliance and OxAble consolidation. I know there's some accounting noise in there, but maybe you can just... walking through the headline, $600 million loss on disposal of your equity interest and maybe what that means for your corporate effective tax rate going forward.

It's Cam here. You just made our accounting team's day with the question. It's not a really straightforward explanation other than to say that the accounting standards are pretty clear about how you have to treat a step acquisition, you basically have to act as if you've disposed what you've got as the equity accounted investment and then realize the entire fair value acquisition like you would any other acquisition. So obviously, you do the fair value on the existing interest and mark that to market. Obviously, I think what's important in recognizing that accounting is that there's an offsetting deferred tax recovery on that derecognition, which effectively nets you to about zero or so. It's about a $9 million gain when you net those two out. And then obviously then you go forward and you consolidate. And then with the consolidation, now obviously we own 100% of Alliance and now 100% of Oxable, but in Q2, obviously there was a small non-consolidated interest on Oxable, which just gets netted out on the back end.

And then I guess going forward, just any impact positively or negatively on the effective tax rate?

Yeah, I think there will be some positive effect on the effective tax rate. You know, as you've seen, there is some benefit to the acquisition. potentially the larger acquisition as a result of some opportunities in the US. And so we do get a benefit there. And I think that shows up in terms of the updated tax guide. So, you know, you'll see it come down ever so slightly.

Okay, great. Thanks for that. And then maybe just on the cost pressures here you're experiencing on RFS4, maybe you can just walk us through some of the scope changes that might be embedded in that new budget. And then also, you know, just given construction activity, really picking up here for large scale projects in the Heartland area, just how we should be thinking about your ability to lock in costs from a labor productivity standpoint.

Great question, Pat. So think of the project increase kind of in the following three buckets. The first bucket being project scope changes and design modifications. This is really to enhance the the the overall operability of rfs for specifically and the overall complex, as you know, like we can spread molecules. To any one of the tracks and it's specifically to accommodate a wider range of C three plus feedstock composition so depending on where your customer if your customers is extracting NGOs from. from a deep basin well versus a very oily Montney well, you get a wide range of NGL composition. So we made a decision just to enhance the overall operability to have a wider range to take that product composition. The second bucket is we saw some incremental inflation over and above what we expected in the latter half of 23 when obviously there was a very large project sanctioned. in Alberta here. So that was unexpected and caused some of the increase. And then the third bucket is our decision, when we sanctioned this project in February of 2023, it was going to be a typical Pemina project where we do all of the oversight and the execution. And as we saw these labor concerns, as you identified, the Heartland area getting busy, we decided to move to a lump sum to make sure that we could procure a tier one contractor You know that we were confident could get the fabrication shop space, make sure they had access to high quality labor, make sure that they were going to execute with respect to our safety expectations and values and indigenous content and deliver high quality project on time. So we've shifted roughly 70% of that total project as we stated to a lump sum. We'll execute kind of more of that outside the lease boundary. Outside the frack area, we'll do a lot of that execution. But we have made that shift and we did see, you know, with shifting that risk from yourself to a third party who's going to deliver that high quality labor and safety expectations, there is a little bit of a cost with that. So that's kind of how we break up those three buckets. And overall, the project, like we said, is still planned on being delivered on time, which is great. And then with respect to the commercial side, you know, with this project coming out of the ground as we speak, We've been able to secure incremental contracts at the overall base complex, RFS 1, 2, and 3, which is obviously great for business. And then we've secured a lot of new contracts over and above our original base case when we sanctioned this with the board in February of 2023. And with the incremental cost, we have seen that the overall sanction metrics have actually gone up. And then with respect to the overall portfolio, I'll just talk, like, The hard line is seeing a little bit of increase, but overall, our portfolio of projects is still industry-leading, and we have the full confidence in our team to continue with the current projects to deliver on time, on budget, and the future ones.

Okay, that's great, Keller, Jarrett. Appreciate that. And maybe just real quick, were the incremental costs you've contemplated with the PGI white cap transaction as well? In other words, the all-in economics of the deal, I know some of it has some downstream benefits embedded in the returns. Just wondering if those returns are still in line with your expectations with the new costs on RFS4.

Absolutely. Okay, I'll leave it there. Thank you. Thanks, Pat.

Thank you. Next question comes from Rob Holt at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Morning, everyone. I want to follow up on the FRAC discussion. I guess two parts there. First one is, are the incremental contracts that you signed on for the entire RFS complex reflective of the incremental capital for RFS4? And then how much white space do you have at RFS? And kind of when could you need some incremental capacity beyond what you're building?

There's limited white space, Rob, at the complex and even with RFS4 coming into service. So right now, very focused on project execution of step one with respect to the execution teams. But obviously, the commercial teams are in constant conversations with our other customers. And, you know, it's a balancing act between ensuring that we have the base load of the first three FRAX long-term contract extensions uh fill four under long-term deals and then you know um you know then get focused on sanctioning number five but but right now it's really focused on number four and and getting that customer interaction for five going i'd say that's a little bit further out um with respect to your first question i think you were asking about um incremental contracts like has anything changed specific due to the cost increase is that accurate

Yeah, like are the incremental, you know, were fees adjusted up for the new capital costs and that's how returns were put back on side.

Yeah, it's a combination of, it's specifically, it's a combination of volume, fees, and then you also have the downstream auxiliary fees such as rail loading and terminaling, etc. And then obviously the marketing business as well. Some customers, you know, choose Pemina to do their full suite of marketing and some customers obviously, you know, do their own marketing. But we are, you know, advancing a lot of that business and, you know, and then you're obviously seeing the upside through the marketing arm as well.

All right. Thanks for that. And then maybe just switching over to the ethane opportunities that were highlighted at the investor day, how are those progressing? And then just given the

we'll call it a tightening labor market in the heartland you know could this de-emphasize an rfs 3ds and kind of focus more out in the field um you know i would say no right now rob because you know that's a fairly that's a fairly small project you know as we've stated before rfs3 and we just really need the tower um so it's not an extensive like you know it's not 500 people on site and it's you know it's building um a few pieces of equipment and some select fab shops so you know you might see a little bit of cost pressure in there but i don't think that would be enough to deter us away from from looking at that project but since investor day we have accelerated um a handful of projects through gate one funding so that's you know small dollar amounts to get pre-feed kicked off and then we'll be evaluating that here in the upcoming you know couple quarters and making a decision on which projects go through gate two and ultimately gate three

and which ones won't be. Yeah, I think, Rob, we'll be able to understand kind of what current labor costs and what current costs are, which will help guide us in terms of which decision we make, which is, as Jared pointed out previously, one of the advantages we have is we do have, you know, numerous sources that we can source the ethane from, and so any updated capital cost will go into that mix in our decision-making.

Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from Robert Cotelier from CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

I've answered most of my questions by this point, but I just wondered, given the massive development of the peace system over the last several years, what's your vision for developing it from here? What further optimizations are possible from this point?

So, Rob, I think there's a few different things. And again, this question given the breadth of the system really depends on where the volumes show up. And so, you know, when you're in Alberta, for the most part, we will focus on optimization now that we have segregated lines and where can we use pump optimization, product optimization to increase throughput. You know, we've already found some wins across the system to unlock some incremental volumes. We do have other areas where we can add low cost pumps like from Fox Creek in to increase volumes there. And then we'll continue to look at opportunities in Northeast BC as LNG comes on LNG phase one and other opportunities come online and we see incremental growth there. So it's a tough question to answer. There's certain areas that are tight where we'll have to expand and there's certain areas where we have utilization opportunities.

Okay, understood. And I'm just wondering what the thought is on the frack spread hedging in light of both the current prices and your increased exposure now that you've consolidated AUX.

So Rob, we have a pretty, you know, programmatic hedging program based on where frack spreads are in terms of, you know, from a statistical basis. P10 to P90 with very limited discretion as it relates to the hedging program. You know, one of the benefits we did talk about on the original OxABLE acquisition, as well as with the new contract, was it made it a lot simpler to hedge. And so, you know, as we stand today, we're about 50% hedged in Canada. And we actually have about just under 50% of AuxAble hedged for 2024 as well. You know, based on how frack spreads have trended the forward curve, we're somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 to 15% hedge for 2025, but we'll likely be locking in incremental hedges just given where forward frack spreads are compared to, I'll call it the five to 10 year historical average.

Understood. And last question, just a clarification from Cam. I think I understood from your previous discussion of taxes that the 24 current tax is not materially changed despite the increased marketing guidance. Is that correct?

That's correct, Robert. Yeah. Thanks. Thank you. The next question comes from Ben Pham at BMO.

Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Can you guys talk about the M&A opportunities in Western Canada? Do you expect more of the white cap JV sort of structures? Do you think PE firms could be looking to monetize or even strategics looking to dispose of assets?

Hey, Ben. You know, it's a really hard thing to predict. I mean, we couldn't have predicted that the white cap transaction was going to happen, you know, six, seven months ago. So, you know, I don't know, you know, we're not seeing necessarily a lot right now, you know, and there's still a fair number of producers that want to own that infrastructure. So it's very producer specific, but we're certainly, you know, we don't have line of sight to a large M&A pipeline. And then as it relates to PE firms, again, I can't really speculate. still feels like a lot of the assets are relatively in their kind of early fund life. So, you know, we don't see any, anything that's kind of being driven by fund life. So I don't have a, I don't have a good insight now as to what PE firms may or may not be doing.

Okay. Understood. And I know there's also some comments on Alliance, AUX, exceeding expectations, and then the talking of AUX to maybe solidifying the synergies a bit. Is that comment more suggesting that you might beat that eight times multiple that you've commented about? And then what about that acceleration of the marketing volumes? Does that change now?

Ben, I guess I would just say that I think obviously, as Scott mentioned earlier, we've We've been fortunate in the sense that, obviously, the commodity complex has strengthened since we made the original acquisition and continues to show strength in this year and even outlooking next year. In terms of the synergies, I think it does. I mean, any time you've got sort of full control of an asset, it obviously does put the wheel squarely in your hands to execute on those synergies. So I think it does. uh support us uh in that regard and i i do believe that you know we will see additional opportunities as we you know sort of get our arms wrapped around and sort of keep moving things forward as as we've done with other assets you know are we at a point yet where we're where we're ready to put our hand in the fire and start to quantify those uh not yet but i i think you know we're definitely seeing things evolve positively and and so far you know very pleased with the acquisition the timing and the returns that it's generating Okay, thank you.

Thank you. Next question comes from Robert Kwan at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning. If I can start with guidance and just kind of some of the thinking around the asymmetric increase and just, you know, is that just more of conservatism on the high end, whether it's around some of the volumes that Jarrett talked about earlier or maybe potentially anything you see on the rail side of things versus the low end coming up and just the confidence you've got with some of the mechanical changes with the Oxable acquisition and the like?

Yeah, I think that's a fair comment, Rob. And as you suggest, I mean, there's a number of things that go into it. I think we obviously had confidence to bring the low end up meaningfully from where it was last time. just based on, you know, such a strong first half. When we look at the second half of the year, I mean, there's a couple things, obviously, that are coming into effect, which, you know, some with certainty, some with less certainty. And so, obviously, as we look forward to the second half of 2024, we've got, you know, the quotient firm tolls are now under the revised tolling structure. You know, while we continue to see strength uh you know at the moment uh obviously you know when you sort of look out um in terms of interruptible flows through through q3 um on alliance you know some some uncertainty there uh could out could exceed our expectations but obviously taking uh you know taking sort of what we know at the moment And then lastly, clearly the big outstanding item or range is obviously the marketing book and how that shapes up. Obviously, some backwardation in the crude market here. This forward strip currently shows some strength in the gas market as we close out the year. But those are all uncertain. And so as we look at that, And then on top of it, as you point out, a couple of things which are outside of our control, you know, you've got a rail issue, you know, we're hopefully coming towards the tail end of wildfires in Alberta and Western Canada for the year. But, you know, that obviously always remains a risk through the summer here. So a few things on our mind that we bake in there and obviously wanted to show strength by bringing up the bottom end and obviously, you know, bringing up the top end as well, but recognizing the uncertainty in the back end of the year.

Yeah, the only thing I'd add, Rob, too, is just given we don't control the closing of white cap, none of that transaction is in that outlook.

Okay, got it, thanks. If I can just turn to the RFS for costs, and really just how do you think about the parallels if any, or lack of parallels, I guess, with that versus what you're seeing from Cedar. And one thing just to touch on is I think Cedar had some off-site fabrication. And so is that going to put pressure on that component at a minimum on the project?

None. None. None, Rob. Cedar, we had the lump sum at the time we press release. So that's all reflected in the cost and all the fabrications being done and overseas, not really anything in the fort. So we see zero parallels between the two. Okay, perfect.

And then just the last, just on the Whitecap deal, can you just talk about within PGI, you've got kind of the return that makes sense for the joint venture. how do you think about the upside you can get from all of the the other pieces uh i don't know if you want to quantify it but just what are the different pieces that give you that upside and specifically you just comment on the musro fane angle under the dow contract good morning robert yeah so downstream so obviously um there's the base acquisition of of the k-bob facility through pgi

And then there's the capitalization of the Latorre battery. That white cap will be executing that. And then we'll be executing the pipeline to tie into Mazaro. So really filling white space through our K3 facility as we connect that to the KBOB facility down into the into the southeast, and then when you go west, right, maximizing the utilization of our original cut bank complex or Muzrow complex, as we call it, you know, and then ultimately we have the opportunity to take more of that, more gas through the deep cut at Muzrow. So obviously that, I think, can be part of our overall diversification portfolio to satisfy our DAO contract. And then obviously, you know, you have current liquids that are extracted at K3 and the KBOB facility. Um, and then with incremental gas going through, uh, the cable facility, obviously there's incremental contracts required on through peace and through the fractionator. Um, and then ultimately through the backend of the frack, like terminaling and rail, et cetera. And then when you shift over to Latour, um, all of the incremental condensate will flow on the P system. The incremental C3 plus that'll be extracted from, from the gas and the C2 plus will obviously, um, flow down the P system and all of those barrels. The condensate will be guided to various condensate outlets in Edmonton, and the NGLs will go through the RFS complex. So that's kind of in totality how the deal, the entire deal works. Base extensions on contracts, and then new incremental volumes through the value chain.

Got it. Thank you. That's helpful. Could you see the magnitude of the stuff outside of then TGI? approaching the magnitude in terms of contribution of the acquired assets or?

Rob, sorry, it's Scott.

I'm just not sure what the, how to ask, like, what, can you rephrase the question? Maybe I think we're just a little.

Yeah, you've talked about, I don't know, maybe we put it kind of in the build multiple or acquisition multiple contacts, presumably what you did within the joint venture has to stand alone. So, you know, how much more of a kicker are you going to get from all the stuff that you would get downstream?

Yeah, I mean, that's obviously. would disclose confidential information that I just don't think we can disclose at this stage. I mean, I think, suffice to say, Jarrett tried to highlight the fact that in addition to the standalone PGI returns, you know, we secured incremental utilization of our facilities through existing and expanded contracts. So, you know, I think we've said what we needed to say on the actual acquisition release um and then upon close you know we'll update 2025 but overall you know we we found the the consolidated multiple in line with previous acquisitions if not slightly better okay that's great thank you thank you we have no further questions i will turn the call back over to scott burrows for closing comments Well, thank you, and especially thanks to the analysts who I know have had a busy two weeks, and we're at the tail end here. So I appreciate all the questions and the quality notes last night, and to any of our employees or to all of our employees listening to the call, thanks for all the hard work. It was a really good quarter. Thanks, everyone. We'll see you again in November. Thanks.

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