speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Pembina Pipeline Corporation Q2 2025 Results Conference Ball. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Friday, August 8, 2025. And I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Tikkunov, VP, Capital Markets. Thank you. Please go ahead.

speaker
Dan Tikkunov
VP, Capital Markets

Thank you, Ina. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Pemina's conference call and webcast to review highlights from the second quarter of 2025. On the call today, we have Scott Burrows, President and CEO, and Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, along with other members of Pemina's senior leadership team. I would like to remind you that comments made today may be forward-looking in nature and are based on PEMNA's current expectations, estimates and judgments. Forward-looking statements we may express or imply today are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further, some of the information provided refers to non-GAAP measures. To learn more about these forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures, Please see the company's management's discussion and analysis, dated August 7, 2025, for the period ended June 30, 2025, as well as the press release Pemina issued yesterday. All of these materials are available online at Pemina.com and on both CDAR Plus and EDGAR. I will now turn things over to Scott.

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Thanks, Dan. Yesterday, we reported our second quarter results, which were highlighted by quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $1.013 billion. We remain on track to deliver full-year results within our original 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range, but as Cam will discuss in more detail, as we are through the halfway point of the year, we have updated the range to $4.225 billion to $4.425 billion. On the project front, Pemina continues to demonstrate its ability to deliver capital projects that provide strong returns and a competitive service offering. The Cedar LNG project continues to progress according to plan and remains on budget and on time with an expected in-service date of late 2028. We recently celebrated the achievement of a major milestone for the project as construction of the floating LNG vessel began with steel cutting on both the topside facilities and the vessel hull. Onshore activities are continuing and marine terminal clearing, drainage, erosion and sediment control, pipeline right of way clearing and road upgrades have been completed. The market for LNG supply on the West Coast of North America remains strong and Pemina continues to progress remarketing of its 1.5 million tons per annum of Cedar LNG project capacity to third parties and expects to finalize these efforts by the end of 2025. The RFS4 project continues to progress towards an in-service date in the first half of 2026. Pemina is pleased the project is trending approximately 5% under the previous cost estimate with a revised expected total cost of approximately $500 million. On a cost per barrel of capacity basis, Pemina is on track to deliver its expansion 15 to 20% lower than competing projects currently underway, highlighting Pemina's advantage service offering. Looking beyond 2025, strong business fundamentals continue to reinforce our outlook for low to mid single digit annual volume growth through the end of the decade across all WCSB products. The outlook is supported by the strong economics and long inventory lives of the Montney Formation and Oil Sands operations. the resilience of our producer customers, despite the volatility in commodity prices in the broader economy. New egress projects, including LNG and NGL export facilities and potential oil pipeline expansions, combined with new demand from potential data centers and petrochemical facilities, and a more supportive policy environment and momentum towards reshaping Canada's energy strategy in a way that could unlock Canada's abundant and diverse energy resources. Against the backdrop of growing WCSB, Pemina has differentiated itself as the only Canadian energy infrastructure company with an integrated value chain that provides a full suite of midstream and transportation services across all commodities, natural gas, NGL, condensate, and crude oil. Our scope, scale, and access to premium North American and global markets uniquely positions us to capture incremental new volumes while unlocking new avenues for growth. Pemina's ability to maintain and grow its position in the rapidly developing WCSB is supported by the recent developments and projects we highlighted in our release yesterday. Pemina continues to strengthen its propane export capabilities and will soon have access to 50,000 barrels per day of highly competitive export capacity for its own and customers' propane through our own Prince Rupert Terminal and a new commercial agreement with AltaGas for 30,000 barrels per day of LPG export capacity and the current RIPIT and future reef facilities. In addition, Pemina has approved an optimization of the Prince Rupert terminal that, through increased storage capacity, will allow the use of medium gas carrier vessels. The optimization is expected to expand access to additional global markets with higher realized propane prices while significantly reducing shipping costs per unit, thereby improving netbacks for Pemina and its customers. We also highlighted how PEMIN and PGI continue to strengthen their relationship with leading WCSB producers and develop mutually beneficial solutions that support growing production, while providing PGI with take-or-pay commitments that ensure the long-term utilization of its assets. PGI recently acquired from Whitecap the remaining 8.3% interest in three gas plants and a sales gas pipeline from PGI's DuVernay Complex. Concurrently, Whitecap entered into a long-term take-or-pay commitment for firm service at the Duvernay complex and extended long-term take-or-pay agreements previously in place at PGI's KA plant. PGI has also entered into an agreement with a Montney producer to fund and acquire an under-construction battery and additional infrastructure in the Wapiti North Gold Creek-Montney area. The project enhances PGI's footprint in the Wapiti region, connecting directly into PGI's existing Wapiti gas plant. The North Gold Creek battery will be operated by the producer and highly contracted under a long-term take-or-pay agreement. Additionally, Pemina continues to advance more than $1 billion of conventional NGL and condensate pipeline expansions to reliably and cost-effectively meet rising transportation demand from growing production. These expansions include the Taylor to Gordondale project, which will be a new pipeline connecting mostly condensate volumes from Taylor, British Columbia, to the Gordondale area, The Fox Creek to the Mayo expansion, which is a proposed expansion of the peace pipeline system that through the addition of new pump stations would add approximately 70,000 barrels per day of propane plus capacity to the market delivery points from Fox Creek, Alberta to the Mayo, Alberta, and other expansions to support volume growth in Northeast BC, including new pipelines and terminal upgrades. The growth is secured by long-term contracts underpinned by take or pay agreements, areas of dedication across the Monty and Duvernay formations, and other long-term agreements that ensure a strong base of committed volumes. Final investment decisions on the Fox Creek to the Mayo expansion and the Taylor to Gordondale project are now expected by the end of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, respectfully. These fully supported demand-driven pipeline expansion opportunities, along with the success we continue to have in re-contracting legacy volumes, are taking place against the backdrop of increased competition. We remain confident in our ability to continue to grow volumes across our conventional pipeline system. Our Northeast BC and Northern Pipelines provide a full product integration across all commodities and connectivity, both upstream and downstream. Combined with our marketing and export capabilities, we believe we offer customers the most competitive midstream service offering. As a reference point, the weighted average contract life on approximately 1 million barrels of firm contracted volumes on Peace and Northern is approximately seven and a half years. Despite the passage of time, This figure has remained relatively consistent over time and has, in fact, increased slightly over the past two years, reflecting our successful efforts to blend and extend existing contracts and sign incremental new long-term contracts. Building upon its position as the leading supplier of ethane to a growing Alberta petrochemical industry, Pemina continues to work closely with Dow Chemical Canada. We are evaluating the various options available to meet our commitment under the mutually binding 50,000 barrel per day ethane supply agreement. Most notably, engineering and commercial discussions are ongoing related to the addition of a deethanization tower at RFS3 within the Redwater complex, and a final investment decision is now anticipated by the end of 2025. Finally, Pemina continues to advance opportunities to provide integrated solutions to support an emerging Alberta-based data center. Greenlight Electricity Center, a partnership between Pemina and KinetiCorps, is developing an up to 1,800 megawatt gas-fired combined cycle power generation facility and is in active discussions with a data center customer to commercially underpin the project. Greenlight successfully advanced through Phase 1 of the Alberta Electric System Operator allocation process and through subsequent commercial efforts has secured a sufficient megawatt allocation to achieve a viable scale for this project. In addition to the opportunity to invest in long-term contracted power infrastructure with an investment-grade counterparty, PEMIN is well-positioned to leverage its existing and future value chain to further support this project. For example, the proximity of the Alliance pipeline offers a potentially accretive expansion opportunity to provide significant natural gas supply to the Greenlight Electricity Center. In summary, the financial results continue to largely track our initial expectations for the year, and we continue to execute our in-flight construction projects and pursue expansions and new initiatives to respond to growth in the WCSB. I will now turn things over to Cam to discuss in more detail the financial highlights of the second quarter.

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Scott. As Scott noted, Pembroke reported second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.013 billion. This represents a 7% decrease over the same period in the prior year. In pipelines... Devin Glennie, factors impacting the quarter primarily included lower toll lower firm tolls on the coaching pipeline due to recontracting in July of 2024. Devin Glennie, Lower revenue at the Edmonton terminals largely related to the decommissioning of the Edmonton South rail terminal in the second quarter of 2024. Devin Glennie, Lower interruptible volumes and lower tolls on the vantage pipeline. Devin Glennie, Higher volumes on the peace pipeline system due to higher contracted volumes and fewer outages compared to the prior period, which was impacted by the planned outages related to the phase eight peace pipeline expansion. higher revenue on the Peace Pipeline system due to increased tolls mainly related to contractual inflation adjustments, higher demand on seasonal contracts on Alliance, and higher contracted volumes on the NIPC pipeline. In facilities, factors impacting the quarter included lower volumes due to planned outages at certain PGI assets and ongoing third-party egress restrictions impacting the Dawson assets, higher contribution from PGI primarily related to recent transactions with Whitecap, In marketing and new ventures, second quarter results reflected the net impact of lower net revenue due to a decrease in NGL margins as a result of lower butane and propane prices, coupled with lower volumes resulting from third-party restrictions at the Shanahan facility and planned outages at both the Shanahan facility and the Redwater complex, as well as higher input natural gas prices at Oxable. And finally, lower realized gains on crude oil-based derivatives, partially offset by lower realized losses on NGL-based derivatives. Finally, in the corporate segment, second quarter results were higher than the prior period due to lower incentive costs driven by a change in PEM in the share price in the period compared to the second quarter of 2024. Earnings in the second quarter were $417 million. This represents a 13% decrease over the same period in the prior year. In addition to factors impacting adjusted EBITDA, the decrease in earnings in the second quarter was primarily due to the net impact of costs associated with an asset retirement at the Redwater complex, lower share of profit from PGI as a result of higher depreciation expense due to a larger asset base following the recent transactions with Whitecap, lower other income due to no similar gain to that recognized in the second quarter of 2024 related to PEM and its financial assurances assumed by CRLG upon positive FID, lower acquisition and integration costs, and finally, no similar net gain on acquisition to that recognized in the second quarter of 2024. Total volumes in the pipeline and facility divisions were 3.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter. This represents an increase of 1% over the same period in the prior year, reflecting the net impact of higher contracted volumes on the NPPIS pipeline and peace pipeline system and lower volumes at PGI, Redwater, and OxAble due to planned outages. Turning to the full year, as Scott mentioned, we updated our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $4.225 billion to $4.425 billion. Within our full year outlook, due to seasonal and asset-specific factors, PEMIN expects third quarter results to be largely consistent with second quarter results, with stronger results expected in the fourth quarter. First, while Pemina continues to benefit from rising utilization throughout its conventional pipeline and gas processing assets that aligns with volume growth across the Western Canadian sedimentary basin, revenue volume growth at these assets is expected to be slightly lower than physical volume growth on a percentage basis as customers expand into their contractual take or pay commitments. Second, we anticipate the typical seasonality positively impacting Alliance in the fourth quarter due to the ability to transport higher volumes during colder periods. This is expected to be offset by the impact of the previously announced settlement agreement with shippers. Third, as usual, we expect a significant portion of our integrity and geotechnical costs on pipeline assets in the third and fourth quarters compared to the first half of the year. Fourth, we are forecasting a higher contribution from PGI in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half of the year, including at the Dawson assets, due to third-party restrictions impacting the first half of the year and the startup of LNG Canada benefiting the second half of the year, as well as at the Duvernay complex due to higher second-half volumes. And finally, we are forecasting a stronger fourth-quarter contribution from the NGL marketing business relative to the second and third quarters due to typical seasonality of the WCSB frack spread business. We have also revised our outlook for the company's 2025 capital investment program, including capital expenditures and contributions to equity-accounted investees to $1.3 billion, which is a $200 million increase compared to the prior outlook. This update reflects continued progress on previously identified core business initiatives, as well as two tuck-in acquisitions at PGI, offset by certain projects being under budget. I'll now turn things back to Scott.

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Thanks, Cam. In closing, we remain focused on delivering value to our investors by best serving our customers, employees and communities. We are looking forward to delivering second half results in line with our full year 2025 guidance, progressing key proposed projects towards final investment decision over the coming few quarters finalizing our CEDAR LNG capacity assignment by year end, and continuing to progress new initiatives like the Green Light Electricity Center and related expansion projects within Pemina's value chain. Thank you for joining us this morning. Enjoy the rest of summer, and we look forward to meeting with you in person or speaking to you soon. Please go ahead and open up the line for questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star four by the one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised, and should you wish to cancel your request, please press star for beta 2. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment, please, for your first question. Thank you, and your first question comes from the line of Aaron McNeil from TD Cowell. Please go ahead.

speaker
Aaron McNeil
Analyst, TD Cowell

Hey, morning, all. Thanks for taking my questions. I'm hoping that you can just take a moment to address some investor feedback that we're receiving. There's sort of this, I don't know what, I guess I would call it a death by a thousand cuts narrative out there. And if I were to sum it up as a theme, it's really just about different ways where Pemina's incumbency in the Canadian NGL value chain is being challenged. The theme covers a lot of ground and several specific points. I can appreciate that it's difficult to touch on every one, but How do you respond to that criticism? What do you think it misses, if anything? And what do you see as the sort of unique value proposition for investors going forward?

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Thanks, Aaron. It's Scott here. There are a few things I think that we need to, I guess, level set or unpack on that question. I'll try to address it at a high level versus kind of going through every specific point. But to me, there's a difference between fundamentals and temporary noise. And When you have kind of the extensive franchise that we have in maybe midstream space, you know, I'd say the bar is very high and there's always going to be something to pick at. When I step back and get out of the noise and kind of look across the horizon at the fundamentals, you know, I firmly believe that our business is rock solid and is driven today as it always has been by customer demand for our services. When you think about the resource in the Montney, it's unbelievable. The basin is growing. and it's full of visible catalysts, whether it's gas egress through LNG, new LNG exports, tidewater egress for oil, and new avenues to create value for customers, hydrocarbons, whether that's incremental petrochemical demand or incremental gas to power, there's a lot of visible catalysts that we see coming at the basin. And when I think about Pemina specifically, I think we're the only franchise that directly benefits and is involved in all of these catalysts. If you think about them one by one, there's direct LNG export ownership with the first of its kind partnership in Canada. We have significant LPG export capacity, proprietary and in partnership with our midstream peers, as we talked about. There's local Alberta demand, East Coast Starnia access, and cost-effective unit trains across the US. So we really have an unparalleled marketing basis when it comes to LPG. We hit all markets. We have a significant and growing condensate franchise supporting the oil sands growth, which we continue to see growing with the bottlenecks across the system. We're currently providing gas egress in a constrained environment with access to high value markets in the mid continent in alignment with long term shippers. You know, we're supporting the stand up of a world scale cracker, both through feedstock supply and ancillary midstream services. And we're continuing to look to extend our value chain and lead the way for our stakeholders and customers. You know, we evolved the midstream sector in the early part of the last decade, building the integrated value chain, which is the core of our franchise today. And now we're continuing to lead the sector through value chain extension initiatives and provide optionality for our customers. Our competitors are looking to build the Pemina from eight to 10 years ago, where we're trying to go to where the balls are going, not where it's been. What's undeniable is that the WCSB is growing. And Pemina will capture its share of this growth for the reasons I just mentioned, while continuing to execute on our disciplined customer-supported growth projects in the core business. You know, I think a real-life proof point of that is the billion dollars of visible capital deployment that we talked about for peace capacity today. You know, in a growing basin, we and others are competing to provide value-added services to our producer clients. And on that basis, we are confident in the resilience of our performance. We're not going to win every barrel. You know, we know that, but we do believe we're going to win our fair share. So the noise, as you mentioned, or death by a thousand cuts, you know, it can be a distraction from what's important. But in my mind, long term excellence in execution is what's important. And I believe that we have an unparalleled track record in the NGL midstream space. So hopefully that answers your question. Happy to take any follow on.

speaker
Aaron McNeil
Analyst, TD Cowell

Yeah, I guess just as a follow up, you mentioned growth. across the basin we saw you bump the capital spend for the year and you know you outlined all the growth opportunities last quarter i think cam mentioned you know the potential for a buyback it seems as though maybe that the narrative is shifting more to a growth orientation so maybe you can sort of just give us a sense of your latest thinking around capital allocation

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Sure. Maybe just to address part of the question, when I think about the capital program, what I think is important is the majority of that capital was due to the bolt-on acquisitions that we made in the quarter, as well as the advancement of some of our projects. Recall when we put out the capital release, we talked about potential increment. We had a baseline capital, and then we had a bucket of incremental capital should we advance some of our projects. And that's really what this is tied to. We're advancing projects. I think what's lost in that mix, and I just want to point out, is that is offset by capital savings across our projects as we continue to execute our projects. So I just don't want to leave the listeners with an impression that that increase has anything to do with cost overruns. That's all incremental new growth and is actually offset by cost savings across many of our projects.

speaker
Jared
Senior Leadership Team Member

Hey Aaron, it's, it's Jared here too. And just kind of getting back to your original question, you were talking about, you know, some of the noise and, you know, maybe misconceptions. I think last week, one of, one of Western Canada's largest producers came out and talked about some substantial growth termally and talking about growing their, their overall production by 200,000 BOE a day in the next kind of six years. We view that as extremely positive. And I think all mid streamers should view that as extremely positive. The investment that that organization's making in Western Canada and the and the quality of their reserves. There was some, you know, we obviously got some inbounds with respect to margin erosion, et cetera, with respect to some of their announcements. And, you know, that's where I think that clarity is required is they talked about a dollar per BOE that could be captured, but it required them to get to 850,000 BOE a day. And they also talked about how that value creation is split between operating costs, which I have to think is in their camp. They're doing something different. to save OpEx, and then they talked about 50% of that being transportation value creation. That transportation was represented in a BOE basis, so barrels of oil equivalent, not just straight up liquids. So we only move Tourmaline's liquids today, so that could be gas egress value creation, that could be rail value creation, that could be trucking, that could be liquids pipelines, etc. Just kind of wanted to chat about that. And overall, I would say as customers in Western Canada grow physical barrels, typically their dollar per unit does go down. That's not uncommon. And specifically our Northeast BC pipeline, which they are a customer on, that's a cost of service pipeline. And as volumes go up, tolls go down, just like any other cost of service pipeline in North America. Lastly, just what I think that a lot of our listeners probably don't know, in 2022, we announced a fairly large commitment with Tourmaline for a chunk of their Northeast BC development. And that long-term deal for pipe and frack, those tolls don't change. Those are fixed tolls that we offer the customer, and we take pride in giving fixed tolls and providing highly reliable service. So yeah, that's some of the noise that I think requires a little bit of clarity. But overall, we're extremely excited about one of Western Canada's customers growing by 200,000 BOE a day in the next couple years. So just to provide some color.

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

And maybe I'll just close it out on your question on capital allocation, Aaron. I mean, listen, I think we've been pretty consistent for some time in terms of our approach to buybacks, looking at the relative risk-adjusted economics Obviously, we've been continuing to do that. We've talked about our free cash flow profile over the next couple of years, likely staring at a modest amount of free cash flow in 2025 and likely flattish to perhaps offsetting that in 2026 based on the period of the CEDAR spend and ultimately looking at it over a multi-year time period. i think obviously we continue to take data points and continue to look at the relative economics and we'll do that and sort of without signaling our intention you know either way or either way here today uh obviously it's something that we talk about uh uh sort of every week all right thanks everyone turn it over thank you and your next question comes from the line of maurice joy from obviously capital markets please go ahead

speaker
Maurice Joy
Analyst, Obviously Capital Markets

Thank you and good morning, everyone. I just wanted to follow up on some of the comments you've made, Scott. Given how you've mentioned that you are seeing strong WCSV fundamentals and also your confidence in winning your fair share, how do I translate all that to a long-term EBITDA growth rate? Is it about starting with the low to mid single-digit volume growth through the end of the decade there you add on incremental CapEx driven growth. So just because of that.

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Yeah, thanks for the question, Maurice. I think I think, you know, for From a guidance perspective, at our last Investor Day, we provided our guidance out towards 2026. And that's the extent of our guidance at this stage. As we move to the end of 25 and into 26, we will look to refresh that guidance going forward. So I'm not prepared to give you a multi-year EBITDA guidance outside of what we've already publicly disclosed. But from a volumetric perspective, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks and what you've heard from us before, is we continue to see somewhere in the neighborhood of mid to high single-digit growth in volumes across the basin, mainly driven by the catalyst that we talked about previously. So no real change from what we talked about previously.

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Maurice, it's Cam here. I guess I would just supplement and appreciate, you know, history is not always a perfect example of the future. But, you know, if you look at history just as one proxy and you can look across our business, but, you know, just focusing on the conventional for a moment, because that's what we often talk about as a proxy, you go back five years and actually, you know, our growth in that business and the growth in our business overall was always through a combination of volume growth, but also margin. And margin comes from a number of pieces. Obviously, we have some contractual elements to that. We do that through operational excellence and reducing our own cost structure. But as much or more of the growth came from that piece. And so I think as we think about the future, I think we actually see really constructive volume growth as we look out over the next five years, perhaps even stronger than we've seen in the last five, depending on product and obviously egress restrictions. And obviously, you know, we're continuing to do the hard work internally to continue to make our service offering more competitive, more creative, and obviously continue to be able to generate value through margin as well. So I would say, you know, that partly underpins our view on the long-term outlook.

speaker
Maurice Joy
Analyst, Obviously Capital Markets

Just to quickly follow up on that, you said, you know, volume growth is really constructive and stronger than you've seen in the last five years. You also said generate value through margin. Are you seeing margin as being one way you can maintain margins, or do you think that margin growth can also potentially come given a competitive landscape?

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think there's two areas to answer that question. One is obviously, in the past couple of years, We've had a couple, you know, sort of meaningful toll resets on some cross-border assets, namely Cochin and Alliance. And obviously that, you know, that has been a headwind on the margin side. Tough to get away from that. But I think, you know, in the rest of the business, conventional business, our gas processing business, our frack business, you know, we've done a lot of really solid things and continue to do things. You know, for example, our... Prince Rupert announcement yesterday in terms of medium gas carriers, you know, that's a margin enhancement activity right there. And so we're looking for ways, you know, our team is really focused on doing that. And I think, you know, obviously the business is evolving, you know, obviously competition is greater than it's ever been. But I think as Scott said in his introductory comments, you know, we continue to believe that we have the very best franchise across the board. And so that gives us an advantage in terms of maintaining and frankly growing that margin.

speaker
Maurice Joy
Analyst, Obviously Capital Markets

Understood. I could just finish off with a comment you made on press release about evaluating further expansions to support volume growth in Northeast BC. I know you have the Taylor's Gordondale project out there right now, but just curious in your thoughts about the long term competitiveness of Fort Sask facilities versus the existing new ones in Northeast BC. particularly given how some of the propane you can incrementally setting out out west for export.

speaker
Jared
Senior Leadership Team Member

Maurice, Jared here. Yeah, great question. First off, the competitiveness of Fort Saskatchewan in totality, not just Pemina's frack, I say is still very attractive. And the reason why I say that is that the majority of the NGLs that come into Fort Saskatchewan today, regardless if it's Dow, Pemina, Kiara, Plains, etc., they're all coming from downstream of North Pine, right? So there's kind of like maybe an imaginary line where products want to come into Fort Saskatchewan, you know, and a significant amount of those are coming from Alberta, a very large amount of the NGLs coming from Alberta. So also then you need to look at the diversity and the rail connectivity. So there's obviously going to be opportunities at a significantly smaller scale. If you looked at all the C3 plus capacity in Fort Saskatchewan, compared to north pine one two or three even that they don't even compare in size and scale uh rail connectivity um inlet storage caverns et cetera et cetera like there's a lot of efficiencies pardon me coming into fort saskatchewan further to that pardon me further to that um the northeast bc brock you're going to be dedicated solely to the west coast Now, you know, short-term FAY arbitrages, you know, they look extremely good, and we believe long-term they're going to be good. But there is, we believe, and I think even some of our competitors have talked to this, there's optionality in having the ability to go to Sarnia, into Conway, into Mount Bellevue, and meeting kind of that diversified North American market while having access to the West Coast market. So are there going to be opportunities to build smaller-scale fracts In certain areas, absolutely there is. If you're close to rail and those types of things, if you want to do it at a massive scale and provide that redundancy and that optionality for diversity, I think customers are going to continue to come to the fort like they have been for a really long time. But I'm not saying that there's not niche opportunities.

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Maurice, Cam, I'll just pile on one last thing. I think to complement what Jared said earlier, know the analogy would be other products so you know whether it's the natural gas value chain whether it's the oil value chain i mean obviously there's been export market opportunities in both of those and uh you know customers uh have have long chosen to diversify their market egress options for a number of reasons and one of those is obviously Market ARBs, premium markets do have been flow. There's operational redundancy reasons for that. So, you know, I think that's what we really like about our offering. And obviously the export piece, you know, complemented by the announcements that we made yesterday and obviously the week before absolutely enhanced that. But we also really like sort of the other pieces of our portfolio and think it's an incredibly competitive offering and frankly one that no one else has. So thank you very much for that.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Robert Cattelier from CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Robert Cattelier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Hey, good morning, and thanks for the fulsome discussion so far. I want to touch on that last point that you made, Cam, about other products. Exports have been a part of your philosophy for a while now. I'm just curious what your long-term plans are for ethane. Any thought given to eventual waterborne exports of ethane?

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Hey, Rob. You know, I think for us, I mean, if we back up and again look at the fundamentals and the macro, there is a significant amount of ethane, not just Pemina, but across the basin being produced and, quite frankly, reinjected in the WCSB. So the amount of ethane available here could lead to various options, whether it's further petrochemical investments within the province or other opportunities. As it specifically relates to ethane, the challenge right now is the location of the ethane, where it's produced, and where it needs to get to. And we do not believe, as of right now, there's a scalable amount of ethane, call it in Northeast BC, to support a pipeline, because this would need to be pipelined to the West Coast, and the economics just aren't there yet. So We do believe that it's an opportunity in the future, but right now the economics of it look challenged.

speaker
Robert Cattelier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Okay. And then what are your thoughts on how the competitive landscape changes if Kira completes the Plains NGL acquisition as envisioned?

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Yeah. From our perspective, those assets exist today. They exist in Plains in a very... in a very competent and, you know, very fierce competitor. So from our perspective, not a lot changes in terms of assets that exist today, capacity exists today. So, you know, they were owned by a formidable competitor and they're going into a formidable competitor's hands. So not, you know, it's kind of business as usual for us.

speaker
Robert Cattelier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Okay. And the last one for me, I'm just wondering if you could comment on how the marketing conditions have evolved since your last update, and maybe if you can provide any update to the FRAC Spread Hedgebook for 2026.

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Rob, it's Cam here. I'll take that. So I guess what I would say is that the FRAC Spread Hedgebook is substantially on, excuse me, the marketing plan is substantially on plan. You know, if you look at where we are on the NGL side, it's tracking very close to budget. You know, if you look at propane prices and gas prices, you know, they kind of bounced around. And frankly, that's in spite of a ton of variability and a ton of volatility. In Chicago, obviously, that gas has been a little bit stronger, which has obviously been, you know, net positive for Alliance and obviously a bit of a headwind for Oxable, but, you know, sort of net-net. And I think what we have observed is that the crude oil complex has clearly been highly variable. We're likely seeing somewhat more modest storage opportunities, albeit recognizing that that's a relatively small piece of the marketing book. But I think if you take my comments and the guidance update together, we're sort of talking at the margin. Differentials have obviously been a little bit narrower than they were in the fall. So all those pieces together, I'd say we're very close to where we were, maybe just slightly lower than budget time. But clearly, I think what we do see as tailwinds is, I think if you went back three, six months, We were looking at a stronger ACO strip as we got into the fourth quarter of this year. And obviously we've observed that as months have ticked by here, even following the startup of LNG Canada, you know, obviously there's still quite a bit of storage to work through on the Canadian gas side. And so that, you know, that strength has been pushed out. You know, that is obviously in the near term supportive of our NGL business. As far as the 2026 outlook for hedges, you'll remember that about two or three years ago, we went to a more dynamic hedging strategy, which effectively involved looking at our own market knowledge, looking at the probabilistic outlook of where the business was and right setting our hedge levels based on that. uh as we sit looking at 2026 at the moment uh you know we're relatively modestly hedged uh because you know we see we see the the p levels you know sort of uh at or slightly below a P50 level. And so from that perspective, we do see some constructiveness coming. I think particularly as I mentioned, you know, in the natural gas space. And so we've really opted to defer our hedging probably a bit later than we have in the past because we do believe that there's some constructiveness to the market.

speaker
Robert Cattelier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Okay. Thanks for that update.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Ben Pham. From BMO, please go ahead.

speaker
Ben Pham
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Hi, thanks. Good morning. First question on CRMG. Could you talk about your progress on the remarketing? It sounded like there was a qualitative positive tone on it early this year in terms of solidifying something. Could you share progress going forward? Is it more oversubscription versus the capacity and is it more narrow in terms of the conversations there?

speaker
Stu
Senior Leadership Team Member

Hey, Ben, it's Stu. Yeah, we, you know, the remarketing of our capacity, you know, we're very pleased with the progress that we've made to date. We've engaged in multiple counterparties, and through that process and time, you know, we have continued to refine our discussions. We are exchanging, you know, agreements with counterparties at this point in time and looking to, as Scott already described, finalize definitive agreements in 2025. As far as the capacity, we've always had the intention of selling the capacity portion of it and are open to and considering selling the entire 1.5 MTPA. And those conversations have began and, again, are part of what we expect to close at this point in time. Again, there remains tremendous interest. in the capacity, and it's just the effort and details to get through some very large and complex discussions and agreements as we go forward. So we remain optimistic that we're going to arrive at something that works for us and for our customer.

speaker
Ben Pham
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay, got it. May I switch over to the piece? You referenced a seven-year average contract length and I just wanted to clarify because I was thinking you go back you had probably some expansions 10 years ago you put in with 10-year ticker pay contracts can you can you clarify those contracts are probably expiring this year and next you effectively have extended those contracts that there's no expiration that you're you're dealing with or renegotiating morning Ben Jared here

speaker
Jared
Senior Leadership Team Member

I you absolutely nailed it. So Scott mentioned we had about a million barrels on the total piece northern system on the conventional system at about seven and a half years. So yeah, a lot of those contract roll offs have been extended, you know, with with incremental barrels with our customers.

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

And then just as a reminder, I mean that. I'm just gonna say that's been a multi year thing going all the way back. know frankly to to 2019 2020 when you know we started talking about areas of dedication and extensions through that some of the extensions we've done over the past three or four years it's been our ongoing and regular process each year yeah i understand i'm just just looking back what you've you've done it's all pulling together now for me um it may want one last thing some early questions around some of the commentary on

speaker
Ben Pham
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

your stock and, and sentiment and stock stocks down 10, 10 bucks or so over a short period of time. And then at what point do you, do you actually start to maybe just push, push down growth CapEx and buy back stock instead?

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Ben, I think as we think about this year's capital program and next year's capital program, they're largely committed in terms of advancing FID projects like CEDAR. A vast majority of next year's capital is CEDAR capital, as well as pipeline capital we've signed agreements that require us to build and expand the pipeline. So the majority of the capital is committed towards FID projects, but buying back stock versus growth capital is always a constant debate amongst our team here and with our board. But right now, as we've talked about previously, capital dedicated to projects and the projects we are considering, you know, generally enhance our franchise. Buying back stock is a nice economic outcome, but it doesn't necessarily enhance your franchise and enhance the service offerings that you can provide to your customers. So it's always a balance. And of course, as stock prices go down, it increases the discussion as it relates to buybacks. But right now, For this year and next year, the capital program is essentially locked down for existing projects.

speaker
Ben Pham
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay, got it. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonnet from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jeremy Tonnet
Analyst, JP Morgan

Hi, good morning.

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Hey, Jeremy.

speaker
Jeremy Tonnet
Analyst, JP Morgan

I just wanted to pick up with the AltaGas agreement there. I was wondering if you might be able to expand a bit more on the go-forward, I guess – LPG export strategy and do you see kind of, you know, more partnerships going forward versus, you know, growth projects to expand your capabilities? Or just wondering if you could talk a little bit more there on the thought process and what we could expect going forward.

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Well, I think for now we're happy with the two announcements that we made. Today, you know, obviously the AltaGas 30,000 barrel a day incremental contract and the investment in our own facility to optimize. For us right now, I think getting the MGCs up and running and advancing that project is a big focus. Like any asset, we will continue to look to optimize that facility. As Cam pointed out earlier, the MGCs are an optimization of that facility. And as we get closer to in service of that, we will again look to optimize that, whether it's continuing to lower the cost of that or potentially optimizing shipping and rail, which could increase capacity. So optimizations remain key. And then augmented with our AltaGas agreement, we're pretty satisfied. Now, that being said, if you listen to our comments around volume growth and pipeline growth, we continue to see growth in the NGL space. And as those NGL volumes grow towards the end of the decade, you know, we will continue to assess where the optimal market is for those barrels. And as Jared pointed out, you know, it's always good to have optionality in any product in any marketing, because while ARBs are open right now, we know that ARBs aren't always open. And so we will look to continue to build out our assets in Fort Saskatchewan. And as we secure more barrels, we will look to where the optimal markets are. And that could be further barrels off the West Coast, or it could be to other markets, depending on the time and where the markets are open at that time.

speaker
Jeremy Tonnet
Analyst, JP Morgan

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. And just want to pivot towards Project Greenlight, if I could, and sound like there's good, I guess, commercial progress there. I was wondering if you could provide maybe a little bit more color

speaker
Stu
Senior Leadership Team Member

on how that's coming together i guess you know when you could see more more signings or getting closer to visibility and when fid could be possible you know thanks it's due again um yeah as yes as you stated i think we've made you know tremendous progress on on the green light project uh with our partner kinetacore You know, we worked hard as a team and a group to successfully advance through phase one of the ASO allocation process. And with subsequent commercial efforts, you know, the project was able to sufficiently secure a megawatt allocation that will allow, you know, a viable scale that the project can move forward. That was very exciting for us. That allocation of megawatts off the grid is a stopgap measure until we can get our facility built, the power generation facility. We're taking all the steps necessary to progress in all of the elements such that our project could be in service in 2029. And so we're very excited about that. and you know we're working with uh commercially working with the off-taker of that power uh they would be in service the data center itself would be in service in 27 consuming that grid power that i just talked about um and then switching over to uh the the generated power from our site We're having very good conversations with commercially and, you know, are expecting to, you know, further those through the remaining part of 2025 and are excited about, you know, the progress that's been made.

speaker
Jared
Senior Leadership Team Member

Jeremy, I'll just maybe add that with our Alliance press release kind of there late in July with the settlement, we also talked about the expression of interest to expand Alliance kind of that interprovincial short haul.

speaker
Jeremy Tonnet
Analyst, JP Morgan

and the interest there that would obviously you know feed a lot of the gas that would go into project green light so the interest there is extremely high so yeah it's it's all coming together got it thanks for that and just the last one if i could with regards to um cedar if uh you could provide maybe a little bit more color with regards to commercial discussions there as we approach uh in in service how i guess that impacts the uh the tone of those conversations

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Yeah, I think from where we were a year ago, um, you know, we are FID, which is obviously a key milestone. We're a year closer to in service. And the project's real. I mean, as I talked about with the steel cutting has happened, we were up in Kitimat last week, and the progress along the terminal and the right-of-ways is tremendous. So that's garnered real interest from multiple counterparties, which has led to a broader process. And as Stu mentioned, we've seen significant interest there. And we're very optimistic about getting these deals done here in the next quarter or two.

speaker
Jeremy Tonnet
Analyst, JP Morgan

Got it. Sounds great. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Patrick Kenny from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

speaker
Patrick Kenny
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Thank you. Good morning. Just on PGI, on the back of these most recent tuck-ins, I was just wondering if perhaps you could provide a bit more color on what the opportunity set looks like, what else you're seeing out there in terms of low-hanging fruit consolidation or investment opportunities that you could add to the portfolio, what type of assets or resource plays across the basin look most interesting. And also, on the back of that, if you had an update on what the remaining internal funding capacity of the JV looks like going forward, that'd be great. Thanks.

speaker
Jared
Senior Leadership Team Member

Morning, Pat. Yeah. So obviously, you know, when we created PGI, there was obviously some extreme, like having KKR as a partner and they've been a great partner. It's been a tremendous outcome. That business has grown tremendously and it continues. Seems like quarter over quarter, Chris and his team are pumping out new integrated deals, feeding feminist value chain. You know, their strategy really is to focus on number one, high quality resource. You know, focus on liquid rich resource that's going to feed the peace pipeline and into, you know, the fractionation complex, et cetera. Focused, obviously, on customers who typically don't build their own processing infrastructure and batteries and those types of things. So there's a lot of opportunities out there. Some recent acquisitions, some lands have changed hands and those types of things. You know, there's opportunities out there to build new greenfield, but there's a lot of opportunities for us to expand our existing footprint. Like, you know, we're doing work at K3 right now, Wapiti expansion. We did a small expansion at our height complex. Like, so there's a lot of brownfield opportunities, specifically in the sour gas space. That's obviously where Western Canada is ultimately constrained, is sour gas processing. And we have a lot of it, a big portfolio of it, and extensive pipelines that interconnect a lot of that. So those are kind of the brownfield, greenfield short opportunities. With respect to targets or acquisitions, can't really speak to that. Obviously, I'd have to have KKR's backing to speak to anything like that. But we're always looking, like we are here at Pemina. And if the right opportunity presents itself, we will be on it. And maybe I'll let Cam talk to the financing.

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Pat. Just with respect to funding capacity, I think obviously what we've seen is that JV has been funded with a very supportive bank credit market to date and obviously consistent contributions from both of the partners. You know I would say that you know we've got some existing liquidity under the existing arrangements, you know, to the tune of a few hundred million dollars on the kind of the existing credit stack we've also got an accordion facility there which. could provide another few hundred million dollars on top of that. And obviously, there's always other opportunities to look at various markets. So I don't see funding capacity being a constraint for PGI in the near term. Clearly, I think that JV has done exactly what it was intended to do, and the performance from it has been very solid across the board, and so continue to have strong access to capital to execute the strategy.

speaker
Patrick Kenny
Analyst, National Bank Financial

And then I guess, zooming out on a consolidated basis, just looking at the upsized capital budget for the year, might be a bit early here. I appreciate to give us a sense as to how you're thinking about 2026. But just wondering, given all the potential projects that are still in the queue, Cam, if you had a sense as to what your internal funding capacity might look like coming out of 2025 based on, you know, now that you've firmed up your financial guidance for the year, where you see the balance sheet exiting the year and, you know, based on run rate pre-cash flows.

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, sure. It's a great question, Pat. So, First of all, I guess a reminder that we've been pretty clear and pretty consistent over time around our target leverage and I guess our financial theory or our financial strategy. orientation, which has always been around a strong, uh, triple B rating. And ultimately, uh, you know, looking at, uh, targeted proportionally consolidated debt, deep, uh, kind of in that at three and a half to four times, you know, obviously we've, we've, we've had the, the official range kind of up to four and a quarter, and that's really meant to capture. frankly, situations that we're in right now. And I think what I speak to when I say that is obviously we're in the middle of a four-year build project with Cedar LNG and something that is accruing debt each year, but with no positive EBITDA contribution until late 2028. And so obviously that shows up in the leverage metrics. it'd be wrong to disregard that entirely. And so as you'd see our leverage metrics sort of notch up a little bit into 2026, it's really as a function of that. If you start to back that out, we're really comfortable in the leverage range of where we are and really square within that target range. As for what the funding looks like, I would say, obviously, I mentioned earlier that we've got a bit of free cash flow this year, modest amount based on our current forecast. Next year, we probably are slightly the other way. We're probably modestly in a deficit position, but on a multi-year basis, I think we are free cash flow neutral to slightly positive based on our three-year range that we disclosed back at Investor Day last year. and so that you know continues to afford us uh you know a strong position i think as we've talked about and and the ability to sort of uh still seize opportunities if if and when they you know they come about um because uh because of our strong financial position okay that's great cam and uh jared uh appreciate the color on pgi thanks thank you and your next question

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

question comes from the line of Teresa Chan from Barclays. Please go ahead.

speaker
Teresa Chan
Analyst, Barclays

Thank you. As a follow-up to the discussion of the competitive dynamics earlier, given that it does seem to be intensifying, whether that be from traditional midstream players or your customers taking some of these midstream activities in-house, in addition to the level of contracting that you have across your portfolio and the seven and a half year average duration comment. How do your fees compare to alternative options, whether that be the competing pipeline system across your footprint or different mode of transportation to the BC West Coast for export? Can you help us think about the composition of the relative economic alternatives from a customer's perspective and how your assets stack up?

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, it's Cam here. I'll maybe start out. You know, I think a couple points. One point that we continue to reinforce is capital execution. And really why that's relevant is, you know, we think that capital execution from PEMMA's perspective is a strategic advantage. We see ourselves on a dollar per unit basis of capacity, whether it's in the pipeline or the frac sector, being more competitive than our direct competitor. We obviously gave up, you know, a stat on a frac space. That's really observable. You know, we've looked at other stats or comparable pipeline projects and, and believe, you know, the, the same sort of directional magnitude is also true. And so we sit there and look out and say, over the long term, we're in a very strong position to be able to compete and continue to offer competitive fees. I think the advantage or the dynamic is that all of our tools are posted on our website for our customers and our competitors to see. You know, we don't have the same specific visibility there with our competitors. You know, I think obviously we get into conversations with our customers and are looking to provide the most efficient tools. But, you know, from our experience contracting, you know, over the past three years, you know, we have a sense that we are as equally competitive, you know, and obviously have the advantage of being an incumbent and all the connectivity and capital that exists today to serve our customers. And ultimately, we think that, you know, that gives us an advantage.

speaker
Jared
Senior Leadership Team Member

And just further to that, good morning, it's Garrett. I think, you know, we talked about, Cam talked a lot about capital tools. You know, when you're moving a very large number of physical barrels, our customers are very focused on operating costs. So our operating costs amortized over a large denominator obviously is a bit of a competitive advantage for Pemina. Also the upstream connectivity. When you're moving roughly, you know, when we've got, you know, roughly a million barrels under contract, you have a lot of existing assets that are already connected to Pemina's infrastructure and to, you know, obviously some assets are duly connected today and everyone knows that. And then some assets are The proximity to alternatives are extremely close. Some of them aren't. So the capital that's required, that's obviously incremental capital from the customers to connect into those pipes. And then when you think about downstream connectivity, we've been fairly public about this, that our pipelines connect into multiple condensate delivery points, multiple fractionators, etc., etc., And the alternatives don't necessarily do that, so it doesn't provide the customers redundancy. And as you think about LNG growing and that gas needing to flow every day to LNG, you need your liquids to be able to flow. So the redundancy of having you know, a full suite of diversified pipelines like Pemina has, and then the redundancy that all of our pipelines connect into multiple receipt points in the Edmonton and Port Saskatchewan market. It provides those customers that redundancy to make sure that that gas can flow every day, you know, and to keep obviously their cash flow streams going. And then just the torque we have on the size and scale of our infrastructure, you know, the optimization we can do with respect to adding a pump station and or, you know, just optimization through technology on pushing the limits of our assets can provide some pretty high margin and needed space for our customers.

speaker
Teresa Chan
Analyst, Barclays

Thank you for that detailed answer. Turning to the regulatory front, as Canada sits at an inflection point of reshaping its energy strategy, maybe for decades to come, and given that Pembina has a front row seat here, can you tell us about the progress you're observing, either at the federal or provincial level?

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Obviously, the words coming out of Ottawa and the provinces are generally optimistic around future energy growth. You know, to me, one of the challenges that as an industry we face is due to the regulatory and political environment for the last decade, you know, there hasn't necessarily been a significant amount of, say, greenfield projects being engineered to go to the West Coast. So we're kind of starting from scratch. But I think what we're hearing from the government is relative support for industry to start to assess some of those situations. You know, we continue to believe incremental LNG is going to be needed off the West Coast and that that is a very logical outcome. As it relates to the discussion around crude oil pipelines, you know, it's interesting to talk about a pipeline, but if you still have an emissions cap and a tanker ban, That obviously is a huge impediment to a new oil pipeline. So there's certainly lots of things that need to be worked through, but we are positive in terms of what we're hearing and what we're seeing in the reach out to industry. I just think it's complicated and it's going to take some time to work through the system.

speaker
Teresa Chan
Analyst, Barclays

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Rob Hope from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jared
Senior Leadership Team Member

Morning, everyone. Just one for me. The MD&A specifically referenced that the supply agreement for Dow is mutually binding. How have the discussions on the supply agreement changed, just given recent commentary from Dow and the delay there? And is it the expectation that the agreement will come into effect regardless of when the cracker enters service?

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sorry, Robert, did you say the discussions?

speaker
Maurice Joy
Analyst, Obviously Capital Markets

The discussions.

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Oh, the discussions, sorry. You know, I think obviously we've been working very closely with Dow on that, and obviously they're analyzing the project and ultimately, you know, sort of Right. Sizing the spend profile. You know, what I would say is that, um, you know, we had a tour of our red water asset, uh, in July. Uh, and I think the group there, you know, sort of went past the work site. And I think speaking for most of those people, they were very pleasantly surprised to see the amount of activity that was still ongoing at that site. Uh, you know, not speaking for Dow, but it was clear that, uh, that there was a ton of activity still ongoing. I think you're correct in the words chosen. There's a mutually binding supply agreement there with an agreement on our part to sell and on their part to buy 50,000 barrels a day of ethane. It's pretty clear. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Samanka Banerjee from UBS. Please go ahead.

speaker
Samanka Banerjee
Analyst, UBS

Hi, thank you for taking my question. Just one for me. So number one related to power generation and green light. If you're looking at any other opportunities, would you like to do them more similar to a partnership as you would with with green light or just more detail on potential future opportunities?

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

I'm sorry, could you repeat the question? We had a hard time hearing. Actually, we just didn't hear the first part of the question. Apologies.

speaker
Samanka Banerjee
Analyst, UBS

Okay, all good. Yeah, so just wanted to ask about potential future power generation opportunities and if you'd follow a similar strategy with partnerships such as Greenlight or any other details that you could provide.

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Yeah, I think for now, we're not focused on future power opportunities. We're really happy with our JV, with Connecticut, and really focused on getting... this potential data center opportunity up and build. If we are successful and we FID, we've talked about this being multiple phases and a significant amount of capital and therefore solely focused on this as it stands today.

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

and just as a reminder i mean the the rationale for this specific project was was obviously the integration with all of the other elements of our business the location of it the fact that it's based around our fort saskatchewan land position the opportunity to enable a co2 solution the opportunity to enable gas egress on on both our processing business and and you know hopefully alliance So, this was a really sort of hand-in-glove kind of opportunity for Pemina, which is why we thought it was interesting to pursue.

speaker
Samanka Banerjee
Analyst, UBS

Got it. Thank you so much. I'll turn it over.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Pranit Satish from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

speaker
Pranit Satish
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Thanks. Good morning. I guess you kind of touched on this, but I just want to put a pin on it, I guess. you know, as we bridge from 2025 to 2026 EBITDA, maybe if you can just frame the moving pieces. So I guess on the, you did give the guidance at the analyst day, but we now have the alliance rate case, maybe something on the US side, maybe marketing a tad weaker, but then on the tailwinds, you've got a bunch of new projects, mid single digit volume growth. So I guess just kind of net-net putting that together, should we expect positive EBITDA growth in 2026, or is 2026 more flattish and then the growth kind of resumes in 2027?

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, hey, Bernice, it's Cam here. I guess what I'll sort of speak to is the guidance that we've got out there today, which is obviously a fee-based guidance, You know, obviously, we would continue to see positive fee based guidance or excuse me, positive fee based growth into 2026. You know, I think we would have, you know, we were trending very, very strongly on that. Obviously, the alliance settlement is an unavoidable setback to that for 2026. And so we can't ignore that. Outside of that, I think we're doing a tremendous amount of work and we do see visible growth opportunities in the rest of the fee-based business. And the team, I can tell you the focus of our team really starting from a few months ago till now has been on opportunities for 2026 and adding value and new opportunities. So, you know, we feel, we feel constructive about 2026, you know, the marketing business will be what the marketing business will be. And I think, you know, I would point that despite the fact that, you know, it is a commodity exposed or commodity related business, you know, the history of that business has been confined to a relatively, you know, narrow range over time. I mean, if you looked at the last few years on an apples to apples basis, you know, there's probably a couple hundred million dollar range there, you know, in most years. So, you know, it'll be what it'll be. And we can probably get more pointed on that as we get closer to setting our guidance towards the end of this year. But would point to the fact that, you know, we continue to reiterate our four to six percent fee-based EBITDA per share guidance. through 2026 and are obviously working hard on that.

speaker
Pranit Satish
Analyst, Wells Fargo

That's helpful. And then I know you kind of touched on this with the prior question on the piece, phase three and phase four contracts that expire soon. But can you give any more clarity, I guess, on how much of that capacity has been blended and extended? You gave the seven-year average duration, and I think you said that a lot of it has, but maybe just Can you get a little more granular? Have you recontracted over 50% at this point? Just trying to get a sense there. I know it's a competitive process. And then tied to that, I guess, on the Fox Creek to Nemeo expansion, are you looking to kind of blend and extend some more of those legacy contracts with that expansion?

speaker
Ben Pham
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

First part?

speaker
Cameron Goldate
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, you know, I'd say, first of all, Pernice, you know, I mean, you can obviously appreciate that is a it's a competitive market out there. You know, I think obviously we've been pretty transparent for a lot of years on our disclosure. And so, you know, the fact that the weighted average life has extended from, you know, really from seven years a couple of years ago to seven and a half today kind of, you know, just purely mathematically has to tell you that a meaningful portion of that has been recontracted. I would also remind you that contracts do not equal capacity. Those two are independent. Capacity came over time and obviously there was a swath of contracts that came with phase three. Subsequent to that, there have been deep bottlenecks and we've been adding contracts over time. To the earlier points, we've continued to push that recontracting out over time based on our service offering.

speaker
Jared
Senior Leadership Team Member

And just to follow up on your last question on Fox and Omeo specifically, if you take a look back and you look and you break down the entire suite of products that Pembina has, we obviously Scott referenced the million barrels, but that's broken out between crude, C2+, C3+, and C5+. And as you probably are well aware, Pemina has a segregated system of bringing those products into the Edmonton and Port Saskatchewan markets. With the increased demand and with obviously increased NGLs coming at the system as part of that single-digit growth, mid-single-digit growth that we're seeing here in Western Canada, we're really seeing an uptick on the c3 plus volumes and so the specific fox cinema like you know just if if i just looked into northeast bc alone you know we've we've seen material recontracting we've seen uh we've been public about three large montney producers and i think one of the things you need to look at is the producers that we have um under contract that we've been public about you know of those three we've talked about conoco and tourmaline but if you look into kind of go Edmonton West. We've been public about our previous Chevron, Kufeck, now CNRL, Kufeck 20-year area of dedication. I think through PGI, we've talked extensively about these long-term, fully integrated deals, and we've essentially captured a significant amount of all the volatile oil, Montney Window, and the very liquids-rich Montney Windows. So there's a lot of NGLs coming at us. And the reason I'm pointing that out is that when we see a constraint on a certain aspect of our system, that's where we need to deploy the capital. So that capital, there wouldn't be a blend and extend. These are new contracts that our customers are taking to get their C3 plus into Fort Saskatchewan. And so it wouldn't be like kind of a standalone project. It's in the need and necessity of customer's demand. That's helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the call back to Scott Burroughs for any closing remarks.

speaker
Scott Burrows
President and CEO

Thank you for your time today. And as I said previously, I hope everybody has a great summer. Thanks, everyone.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for participating.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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