4/22/2021

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Precision Drilling Corporation 2021 First Quarter Results Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants' lines are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 1 on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you require any further assistance, please press star 0. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Dustin Honing, Director of Investment Relations and Corporate Development. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Dustin Honing
Director of Investment Relations and Corporate Development

Thank you, Denise, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Precision Drilling's first quarter 2021 earnings conference call and webcast. Participating today on the call with me are Kevin Neveu, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Carey Ford, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Through our news release earlier today, Precision reported its first quarter 2021 results. Please note that these financial figures are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated. Some of our comments today will refer to non-IFRS financial measures such as EBITDA and operating earnings. Our comments will also include forward-looking statements regarding Precision's future results and prospects, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Please see our news release and other regulatory filings for more information on financial measures, forward-looking statements, and these risk factors. Carey will begin today's call by discussing first quarter financial results. Kevin will then follow by providing an operational update and outlook. With that, I'll turn it to you, Carey.

speaker
Carey Ford
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Dustin. Our first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $55 million decreased 47% from the first quarter of 2020. The decrease in adjusted EBITDA primarily results from a decrease in drilling activity in all regions. also included in adjusted EBITDA during the quarter, his $11 million in share-based compensation expense, and $9 million in Q's assistance payments. As a reminder, the Q's program supports employment in Canada, and Precision has utilized this program to preserve jobs within our organization. We applaud the Canadian federal government for this program and its impact on supporting employment during the pandemic. The recent Canadian federal government budget that was presented included a proposal to extend the Q's program beyond its current June expiration. We will provide additional guidance on how the program will affect precision when details firm up, but for now we expect the precision impact to be greater than what we communicated in February. In the U.S., drilling activity for precision averaged 33 rigs in Q1, an increase of seven rigs from Q4. Daily operating margins in the quarter were 7,000 27 U.S. dollars, a decrease of 4,131 U.S. dollars from Q4. The decrease in margins is primarily due to lower idle but contracted revenue earned during Q1 this year, higher operating costs driven by startup costs relating to 12 rigs activated year-to-date, and turnkey activity. Absent impacts from idle but contracted rigs and turnkey, daily operating margins would have been 1,217 Thank you. Thank you. In 2018, our peak activity reached 82 rigs in November, and activity troughed at 19 rigs in September last year. During that 22-month period, over 60 rigs were stacked and preserved in good condition to be reactivated at a later date. Precision had 57 rigs working in March of last year, and substantially all of the rigs we have reactivated since the trough last year were working in the first part of 2020. Activating those rigs require us to incur some operating costs to cold start rig crews, inspect and certify critical components such as top drives and engines, restock consumables, and sometimes mobilize the rig or rig components. We have found the average cost to activate each rig has been approximately $150,000 to $200,000. Some of these costs are incurred before the rig goes to work, and some of it is incurred in the first few months of operations. We expect this level of startup cost to continue as we add the next 25 to 30 rigs in our U.S. fleet. In Canada, Drilling Activity for Precision averaged 42 rigs in the quarter, a decrease of 21 rigs from the first quarter of 2020. Daily operating margins in the quarter were $8,106, an increase of $901 from Q1 2020. Margins were supported by a strict focus on operating cost and Q's assistance, offsetting lower fixed cost absorption. absent the Q's impact, margins would have been $6,760 or $445 lower than Q1 last year. For Q2, we expect margins absent of Q's and one-time recoveries to be up $500 to $1,000 per day compared with last year due to cost reduction initiatives, higher fixed cost absorption from increased activity. For reference, Daily operating margins in Q2 2020 absent queues and one-time recoveries were approximately $4,000. Internationally, drilling activity for precision in the current quarter averaged six rigs. International average day rates were $52,744 U.S. dollars, down approximately $1,500 U.S. dollars per day from the prior year. This was due to rig mix and lower rig move revenue. In our C&P segment, adjusted EBITDA this quarter was $7.8 million, 140% increase from the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was positively impacted by a 2% increase in well-service hours reflecting improved industry activity, lower cost structure, fused program support, and $2.3 million in restructuring charges in the prior year quarter. Well abandonment work in the first quarter of this year represented approximately 15% of our operating hours. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $8 million, and our full year 2021 guidance remains $54 million, comprised of $38 million for sustaining infrastructure and $16 million for upgrade and expansion, which relates to anticipated investments supporting alpha technologies and contracted customer upgrades. As of April 21st, we had an average of 36 contracts in hand for the second quarter and an average of 31 contracts for the full year 2021. Moving into the balance sheet, we continued to reduce both absolute and net debt levels, primarily through free cash flow generation. As of March 31st, our long-term debt position net of cash was approximately $1.1 billion, and our total liquidity position was approximately $700 million, excluding letters of credit. Our net debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA ratio is approximately 5.2 times and average cost of debt is 6.6%. We remain in compliance with all of our credit facility covenants in the first quarter with an EBITDA to interest coverage ratio of 2.1 times. During the quarter, we reduced total debt by $29 million and made an additional $22 million debt reduction subsequent to the quarter end totaling $51 million debt reduction year to date, over halfway to meeting our debt reduction target range of $100 to $125 million for this year. Our capital allocation program remains substantially weighted to debt reduction, and we remain on track to meet or exceed our 2021 debt reduction target and our long-term debt reduction target of $800 million between 2018 and 2022, where we have already reduced debt by $601 million since the beginning of 2018. For 2021, we expect to continue generating free cash flow through operations. We expect some benefit from working capital release in Q2 with lower activity during the Canadian spring breakup after an $18 million working capital build in Q1. For reference, the working capital build since our trough in Q3 2020 has been approximately $44 million, which has been driven by higher activity. For 2021, our guidance for depreciation, SG&A, and interest expense remains unchanged at $290 million, $55 million before share-based compensation expense, and $85 million, respectively, for the year. We expect cash taxes to remain low and our effective tax rate to be in the 5% to 10% range. Of note, as a result of the previously reported change in our accounting treatment, for a portion of our share-based compensation plans from equity settled to cash settled. We incurred an additional charge of $2 million in the quarter as a result of our increased stock price. This treatment of share-based compensation change will lower future equity dilution and will introduce a bit more volatility in reported share-based compensation expense in the future. With that, I will now turn the call over to Kevin.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Carey. And good afternoon. We're in the midst of a strong drilling services recovery cycle coming off the collapse of 2020. Without any doubt, the outlook has substantially improved, even from just a few weeks ago. Global excess inventories of crude are rapidly declining. Demand for crude continues to recover, trending towards pre-pandemic levels as the global economy gradually opens. And while the pricing for our services generally lags increasing demand during these recovery cycles, we see many indicators that the fundamentals for land drilling are well into a rebound. We firmly believe the firm and stronger commodity prices for both gas and oil will lead to increased drilling demand as the year progresses. However, financial discipline by our customers, the oil and gas producers, is here to stay. Prioritizing investor returns while carefully managing growth is the way of today and the future for the oil and gas industry. Precision's digital technology offerings fit this need by enabling our customers to lock in performance improvements, eliminate human error and variance, but most importantly, this drives industrial scale-based cost and risk reductions across their complete drilling programs. So let me begin by updating you on customer adoption and the success we're having with our Alpha digital suite of technologies. First, we view the very strong sequential customer adoption as a leading indicator that the efficiency, the performance, and repeatability that Alpha provides will drive market share growth for precision. We noted eight new customers utilizing these technologies since the beginning of the year. We also mentioned 27% sequential growth in billable days for the Alpha Automation platform. We've also increased our suite of Alpha apps from six to 16 as we commercialized 10 additional apps during the quarter. And this resulted in apps revenue doubling the pace of last year with over 1200 billable apps days during the first quarter. Importantly, Our ELPHA digital technologies are allowing our customers to drill better quality wells, reduce their drilling costs, reduce fuel consumption, and importantly reduce GHG emissions while delivering consistently predictable industrial scale repeatability in their operations. Now ELPHA analytics utilizes precision on staff experienced drilling engineers who comprehensively analyze offset well data to improve the customer drilling plan by providing process, placement, and performance recommendations. During the first quarter, we built Alpha Analytics for almost 1,000 drilling days. Our customers view this as a high-value service, and we expect customer adoption to accelerate. If you want more details on the specific efficiency and cost reduction benefits of our Alpha suite of technologies, you can find over a dozen field case studies on our website. Turning to our business update, I'll start with our Canadian Wells Service business, which is experiencing a sharp improvement in customer demand and offers insight to the operating leverage precision can deliver as this recovery takes shape. Most of the listeners on this call will know that we undertook a comprehensive organizational restructuring and cost reduction effort in this segment over the past couple of years. I'll note that sequentially, our well-serviced activity was up 28% to 35,000 man-hours during the first quarter, returning to pre-pandemic levels. also point out that only 15% of our work was due to the federal well abandonment programs, suggesting a strong increase in underlying customer demand. We expect demand will stay strong throughout the year. And notably, by the close of business on the first day of April, our 2021 monthly hours exceeded the full month hours we achieved in April of 2020. And as another reminder, today we have 26 service rigs running compared to zero on the same day last year. So we're obviously seeing that business rebound nicely into these stronger commodity prices. We expect this business is on track to deliver strong free cash flow and will continue to demonstrate excellent operational leverage as the activity remains strong. Moving to the U.S., drilling activity in the U.S. recovered a little faster than we expected, with Precision now operating 40 rigs by mid-April, well ahead of our prior guidance, which suggested we would reach this level by the end of June. As mentioned earlier, we continue to see strong uptake on our alpha technology products with 60% of our U.S. rigs running alpha automation and alpha apps. We continue to closely monitor our customers' completions activities as they work through the excess inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells. Current drilling activity levels are not matching the completion rates or even at levels to sustain current oil production volumes. We believe this points to increasing rig demand when the duck inventories are exhausted later this year. We have further visibility for potential rig activations through the end of the third quarter and expect our activity to move into the upper 40s later this year. From a pricing perspective, we believe leading-edge rates bottomed in the first quarter, and we see opportunities to charge $2,000 to $3,000 premiums with these recently reactivated rigs repriced as our customers have a strong preference for what they term hot rigs. Now, Carey mentioned the activation cost we experienced restarting rigs during the first quarter. I expect these transitory costs to linger as we activate additional rigs, yet I'm confident that as each of these rigs return to full operation, the costs will quickly normalize in line with our long-term averages. Now, the potential inflationary effects of the pandemic economic recovery stimulus plans is a growing concern. Labor cost inflation is less of a concern as most of our customer contracts provide for increased day rates of labor cost increase. and Labor accounts for roughly half of the daily operating cost of our rigs. The other half of the operating cost is procured materials, including rig expendables, spares and miscellaneous repairs parts. Steel and other commodity inflation will likely impact these product costs as the year progresses. We believe our operational scale of our volume procurement and leveraging our supply chain will help mitigate some of these potential inflationary factors. and I think this reinforces the importance of scale as a key competitive advantage in the land driller segment. Now, we believe the impacts of inflation will be well understood across the drilling value chain and rate increases to offset these costs will ultimately be expected by our customers. We will keep a very close watch on inflation and we still expect to improve our margins as the year progresses. Trinity Tour International Business has mentioned in our press release The financial performance of this segment remains stable. Encouragingly, pre-tender work has commenced in Kuwait, and we are expecting to see opportunities develop in the second half to reactivate possibly all three Aval rigs in Kuwait. In Saudi Arabia, forward visibility is less clear, but our expectation is that once all of the industry IBC rigs in-country are reactivated, that the tender opportunities will begin to emerge. It seems that rig activations will track the reduction of OPEC-related export curtailments. Moving to Canada, we're in the middle of the seasonal spring breakup slowdown period. We mentioned in our press release that we have 20 rigs operating today, and this compares to less than 10 at this time last year. We have indications and commitments for a normal summer recovery period and expect to exit Q2 with close to 40 rigs operating, and again, more than twice last year's activity, and we expect that will trend up through Q3 into the fourth quarter. While pricing has been challenged over the past 12 months in the Canadian market, we see opportunities for price recovery later in the year and would expect to fully recover any inflationary factors. We also expect full utilization of our super triple rigs, the Montney and Duvernay drilling programs, and expect strong customer uptake on our alpha digital products for these rigs. The company's positioning in Canada in the Canadian market remains very strong and provides an excellent source of free cash flow as we seek to continue reducing our total debt levels. As Carey mentioned, with $51 million of debt reduction already achieved, we remain highly confident in our ability to meet or exceed our 2021 debt reduction targets. Moving on to our third priority, we have several customer collaboration-based GHG emission reduction projects underway in both Canada and the U.S., In Canada, we will be deploying a hybrid natural gas generating and battery energy storage system on a drilling rig during the third quarter. In the U.S., we have several customers transitioning to 100% natural gas or blended gas diesel power systems as they reactivate our rigs. During the quarter, we deployed a real-time rig-based GHG emission monitoring system in the field to validate and monitor precisely direct rig emission estimates. We are also developing several partnerships with green power solution providers to seek solutions to further drive down field emissions. We believe this strategy, which is similar to the partnerships we utilized to develop our alpha digital products, spreads out both the risk and investment requirements to several industry participants as we develop green solutions for our rigs. We believe that precision drilling will be a critical contributor to reducing and eventually eliminating the GHG emissions from the upstream oil and gas drilling industry. I'll conclude by thanking the employees of Precision for their perseverance, dedication, and hard work as we have all dealt with the many challenges of the past 12 months. I'm especially proud of the high quality work our team has delivered and the strong and effective pandemic risk management program our team has implemented and successfully executed. Precision and our people have completely avoided any field service interruptions due to the virus and the related challenges. So thank you to the full Precision team. I'll now turn the call back to the operator for questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Your first question comes from Taylor Zurcher with Twitter Pickering Holds. Your line is open.

speaker
Taylor Zurcher
Analyst, Tudor Pickering & Holt

Hey, good afternoon, and thank you. Kevin, I wanted to start by asking a question on pricing. You made the comment that in the U.S. market, you think you'll be able to get or command a $2,000 to $3,000 a day premium versus and I guess some other rigs out there, at least for the rigs that are hot. And I just wonder, I mean, the rest of the market, the rest of your peers are all doing the same thing and they're all reactivating hot rigs as well. So I was hoping you could just explain that a bit more and what you mean by $2,000 to $3,000 a day. What premium are you measuring that against? So any color there would be helpful.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, for sure, Taylor. I think as this market's kind of evolved off the bottom of 2020, and we in the industry activated rigs. Those rigs were being activated from stacked into operations. We were bringing crews back out to the rigs. We were getting the rigs kind of back up and going again. You know, competition was fairly intense. You know, we heard lots of talk about leading edge day rates on those rigs. You know, comments that those are kind of like mid-teens, sometimes a little higher, sometimes a little lower for the activation of those rigs. Once those rigs have been running and drilled through their first contract, those contracts are generally short-term. We've been trying to keep that book kind of near-term, so 30-day contracts, some 60-day contracts, some well-to-well contracts. When those rigs reprice on the next contract, that's when we expect that that rig will get a premium over a cold-stacked rig. And that premium could be, we're saying, the range of $2,000 to $3,000, maybe more. Thank you for joining us. We're unsustainable for the industry and we need to see strong leadership on getting rates back into a sustainable range.

speaker
Taylor Zurcher
Analyst, Tudor Pickering & Holt

Okay. My follow-up is international. You talked about some early tendering exercises going on in Kuwait and elsewhere in the Middle East. I was hoping you could help us think through what the typical timeline is as it relates to some of these early tendering activities eventually turning into a contract and eventually the rig going back to work. You talked about the potential for all three of the rigs in Kuwait to go back to work in the Thank you for joining us.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

to make sure the rigs meet the specifications. Certainly, our new-build rigs all meet specifications, so we're quite confident that we'll be quite competitive on these rigs.

speaker
Taylor Zurcher
Analyst, Tudor Pickering & Holt

Awesome. That's helpful. I'll turn it back. Thank you.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Your next question comes from our site with ATB Capital Markets. Your line is open.

speaker
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets

Thanks for taking my question. Kevin, you mentioned that your rig activity in the U.S. could be up into the high 40s by late this year. Are all those rigs kind of spoken for already, or is that, you know, do you have firm contracts, or is this just like in discussion more right now?

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, Kar, I think it's a combination of open bids we have out there, customer discussions we have ongoing, and maybe a little bit of reading the tea leaves that we see out there.

speaker
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets

And is this incremental demand still from the privates, or are you seeing some public E&Ps getting involved as well?

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

It's still weighted towards the privates, but what we've seen so far this year has been about two-thirds privates, about one-third publics, and I think that weighting looking forward would be similar. But I think there's likely room for the public to start moving into a few more VEGA activations in the second half of the year once they demonstrate a couple of quarters of good free cash flow, which we think they will.

speaker
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets

Now, Halliburton in their call yesterday mentioned that they now expect U.S. E&P budgets to be up about 10% or so year over year. Previously, they were commenting that it's going to be actually down by maybe 2% to 3% or so year over year. In your discussions with privates and publics, do you get that sense?

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, Walker, usually we're the last to hear because, of course, they're trying to run game theory on us and our day rates. So we're less likely to hear forward guidance on capital spending than some other services might. But, listen, it makes sense. You have to realize these budgets were probably created when the WTI prices were in the 40s, not the 50s or 60s, late last year. And certainly we expect that our customers both in the US and Canada will demonstrate very strong free cash flow during Q1 and obviously again during Q2. So we think some of that money comes back into drilling.

speaker
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets

Good, good, good. Yeah, the expectation is that public E&Ps may pick up activity late in the year, November, December. when that CapEx number may be reported in next year's number and not in this year's number. So that's kind of their thinking from discussion. So hopefully that's the case. That's all I have.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

I was going to say one thing we're certain of is that current drilling rates are inadequate to support current E&P production levels. We do see our customers using their inventory of Uncompleted Wells to support production right now. That can't go on forever. That's going to work its way down.

speaker
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets

Good, good. Yeah. Thank you. That's all I have. Thank you very much. Great.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Your next question comes from Cole. Clara, let's see if your line is open.

speaker
Cole
Analyst

Morning, everyone. Just wanted to start on margins. So in the U.S., it sounds like they're going to take a bit of a step down next quarter, which I mean is understandable. with all the startup costs. But I mean, as we think about the rest of the year, obviously, the startup costs will continue. But at the same time, I expect there to be some sort of economies of scale. So I mean, do you kind of expect a bit of a recovery in that metric, even as you activate more rigs? Or how should we think about that?

speaker
Carey Ford
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I think you're thinking about the right way, Cole. Kevin mentioned, we think that spot pricing bottomed in the first quarter. We've got More rigs that have been fired up, so we have hot rigs to market, which should push pricing up a bit more. And you're also correct about the startup costs. They'll be spread over more activity days as we keep adding to the rig count. So we would expect after the second quarter, if the fundamentals for the industry hold together, that the margins will start expanding in the third quarter.

speaker
Cole
Analyst

Okay, perfect. That's helpful. Thanks. So as we think about the international rig tenders, I mean, are you able to quantify – How much capex you think you might need to spend to activate these rigs? And I assume if you did have to spend that, it would be obviously contracted?

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Cole, that's a great question. There will be capex involved. We have those rigs have been idle now for a year. And before that, their age is a little over six years old. So there'll be some time-based recertifications, particularly on things like BOP stacks. We're thinking that's going to be in the range of three to five million per rig. and we would expect that that would be recovered very quickly in the contract, likely well within the first year. We'd expect a contract that is measured in years duration, not quarters.

speaker
Cole
Analyst

Okay, perfect. That's helpful. Thanks. I'm just curious on the GHG monitor pilot. I mean, should we be thinking about it as a relatively immaterial in the near term from a cost perspective? And How are you thinking about that from a revenue model standpoint? Would you like it to just be sort of a day rate add-on? Or how do you think about that?

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I really see all of the things we're going to be doing around reducing our environmental footprint as part of the value we provide. And if this involves capital, we'll look for capital recovery in some normal upgrade window, whether that's one year, two years, or four years. We'll kind of depend on the scope and the length of the contract. But we think that I would tell you that... Partnering with our customers in finding ways to reduce the footprint, but doing it on a capital recovery basis is very important for us.

speaker
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets

Okay, gotcha.

speaker
Cole
Analyst

Does that answer your question? Yeah, yeah, that works. So from a balance sheet perspective, I mean, given where the bonds are trading right now, do you see yourself more paying down the credit facility in the near term and then maybe think about terming out some of that debt even more in the later half of the year?

speaker
Carey Ford
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

So we're in a position where we have optionality. Obviously, we're generating free cash flow that we can use for debt reduction. We have a healthy cash balance. We have a little bit of balance left on our revolver, and we have our 23 notes that are callable at par in December of this year. So we'll look to potentially make open market purchases throughout the year or pay down the revolver, and at the end of the year, we will have the ability to call those 23 notes to meet our Debt Reduction Targets. And in terms of longer-term, at some point in the next, call it 18 months, it's likely that we would execute a high-yield transaction to term out some of the longer, or actually I should say near-term maturities. We think it's probably a little bit too soon right now, and we actually have been chipping away at the 23 and 24 notes. So as we move along in time, those balances will be smaller than they are today.

speaker
Cole
Analyst

Okay, great. That's a good caller. That's all for me. I'll turn it back. Thanks for the answers. Thanks, Cole.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Your next question comes from John with Daniel Energy Partners. Your line is open.

speaker
Dan Cooper
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hey, guys. Thank you for including me.

speaker
John
Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners

Hey, John. Kevin, just on your activity comments, nice progression to the high 40s. Can you just elaborate on the duration of those opportunities given where the strip is. Are they trying to lock it in for 2022? Just any color on that would be appreciated.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

We have some customers trying to lock in, you know, kind of leading edge rates for a longer period of time. But few of those go beyond about a 12-month cycle. We're obviously trying to always keep a blend of, you know, kind of medium and short-term contracts. We're not too exposed to either direction. But in this type of rising market, We are anxious to see contracts roll over.

speaker
John
Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners

Okay.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

I didn't really give you a lot of clarity on that answer, but I'll tell you, most of the contracts are less than a year.

speaker
John
Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners

Well, you know, I understand why they'd be less than a year today, but I didn't know if because of where the strip is, if people are now asking for more term, notwithstanding where you want the pricing to be, but just conceptually if they want to lock these things in for longer.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Very few companies have a 2022 budget identified yet, so not a lot is working beyond the first few months into 2022. Okay, got it. And I just want to recover from 2020 and really understand where they're going to be sitting financially over the course of this year before they get too committed to 2022, although I will tell you the long-range planning on 2022 is looking quite robust.

speaker
John
Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners

Right. It seems to me that there could be a rush, as Wacar alluded to, in the fourth quarter. People are trying to lock stuff up, and that plays to you guys in terms of rising inquiries equals rising rates. I don't know if people just want to get ahead of it. It seems like a smart thing to do for the customer.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

For sure, right now, every penny they save matters. But if they're back into eating rigs, and a rig is $3,000 or $4,000 a day more... and they're going to be drilling 20-day wells. That's only $60,000 against what's probably a $2 or $3 million well. So the rig cost is just a lot less meaningful than it might have been in any previous recovery cycle.

speaker
John
Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners

I agree. They always look at that number. First thing they look at, right, on an AFA day rate typically.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

They do, but it's in a rising tide. I would tell you that getting a good rig is probably more important than shaping the last penny off the price.

speaker
John
Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners

Absolutely. I don't disagree with that. Last one, Kevin, just sort of big-picture thoughts on your well-serviced business as it relates to opportunities in the United States for expansion.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

We have a very small footprint pressing into North Dakota, which really leverages our southern Saskatchewan capabilities, but we don't really see any expansion beyond that. That natural extension of our activities, nothing beyond that.

speaker
John
Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners

Okay, that's all I got. Thank you, guys.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, John.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Your next question comes from Keith Mackey with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

speaker
Keith Mackey
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Hi, good afternoon, everyone. Hi, Keith. Hey, I just have one question for you. and appreciate it might be a bit sensitive, so would appreciate any comments you could make on it. But given the $9 million wage subsidy is pretty substantial in the context of Q1's 55 million EBITDA, What is the sense or the strategy as that program potentially ramps down through Q2? Like is it a we're holding on to capability for an upswing in the second half of the year or is there potentially some restructuring to be done? Any comments you could make to that effect would be helpful.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

You know, Keith, through most of last year, we did most of the restructuring that we think is necessary. But I'd add a couple of things here. I think that we did preserve jobs that would have otherwise maybe not have been in the company without that program. But I would tell you that today, a large portion of the value is actually across the field operations and drilling and well servicing. and you could say that in fact the drilling rigs are running a little cheaper right now and the service rigs are running a little cheaper and that value is kind of being earned by the operating companies getting the services a little cheaper. So I'd expect that as those, you know, likely as those relief programs start to wind down, we will look to push rates higher to reflect the increased cost.

speaker
Keith Mackey
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Got it. And maybe just as a follow-up on that, I was sort of also wondering if that – Any potential ramp-up in the site reclamation program spending that some expect in the second half of the year kind of plays into your footprint the way you've got it set up now?

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

You know, I have to tell you that we're pretty enthusiastic right now about our performance in well servicing. Any increase in reclamation awards, and we've been very well kind of blanketing that business right now. is all really good flow through right to the bottom line for us. I think we'll be pushing hard to win more of those awards and continue to support the increasing demand we see in the field for conventional well service and remediation work.

speaker
Keith Mackey
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Got it. Okay. That's it for me. Thanks very much. Great. Thanks, Keith.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Again, as a reminder, to ask a question, please press star and the number one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from Dan Cooper Morgan Stanley. The line is open.

speaker
Dan Cooper
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

There's been a lot of talk about whether operators in the U.S. are going to kind of stick to managing budgets to production maintenance mode or if they're going to maybe pick up activity. I kind of wanted to ask a similar line of questioning, but in Canada, just in your conversations with customers, do you get the sense that Canadian operators are kind of in maintenance mode as well, or how would you kind of characterize the strategy in that market?

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Dan, I would say that that transition probably happened two or three years earlier in Canada where the NPs were forced into a maintenance or fiscal discipline mode really as early as 2014 or 2015 after the first sort of OPEC collapse. So I think it's running longer in Canada. I think the NPs in Canada are trying to find ways now to do both, generate good shareholder capital returns and find ways to develop modest growth Thank you for joining us.

speaker
Dan Cooper
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Maintenance activity levels, obviously the answer is a lot more complex in Canada given seasonality and the different resource plays, but just wondering if there's any kind of a bogey you could point to for what might represent maintenance activity levels like a maintenance rig count in Canada.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

A little hard to that because the mix of hydrocarbons is a bit different from Canada. The emphasis the last couple of years for our triples has been around what I referred to in my prepared comments as Montigny and Duvernay. It's a natural gas basin, but it's actually very wet, and the wells are essentially being paid for by the natural gas liquids that are being produced. And those are still going into pipelines that get shipped over to the heavy oil producers, and it's used as a diluent for heavy oil being piped to the U.S., So you've got natural gas liquids, you've got natural gas, and you've got oil. All three are quite constructive right now, and with the Canadian oil and gas complex operating in a disciplined mode, I think there's room to see activity move up and still be disciplined.

speaker
Dan Cooper
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Understood. Thanks a lot for the color. I'll turn it back.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Your next question comes from Jeff. Federally with Peters and Company, your line is open.

speaker
Jeff Federally
Analyst, Peters and Company

Good afternoon, everyone. Just a quick follow-up question on the technology side. So, Kevin, you've obviously laid out the adoption and successes you're seeing across alpha and some of the emissions stuff. How should we think about the impact on your day rates and margins from both first alpha but also the emissions piece?

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

So, on the emissions piece, I'll start there. You know, if we make a capital addition to the rig, be it a natural gas engine or a battery power pack, We'll look at that like it's an upgrade, and we'll look for typical upgrade economics, which means payback within the contract period, and that could be one year, it could be two years. Unlikely, it stretches out to three years. So if there's a capital enhancement to the rig, we want to see that capital recovered, so we view our customers being partners with us in those GHG emission reduction efforts. Now, and I think I even talked about a couple of those on the last call where we had some upgrades we did that were specific to both natural gas conversions and footprint of the rig where our customers paid for those upgrades. Now, coming back to the alpha, great question. I'm glad you asked it so I can dive into this a little bit. The price we posted for alpha automation in Canada is $1,500 per day Canadian. In the US, $1,500 per day US. That price has stuck in the market. It's a price we introduced originally three and a half, four years ago. You know, that's essentially a price that allows us to recover any capital investments we need to make within a couple hundred days. And after that, it is essentially EBITDA for us. On the apps, we're charging in the range of anywhere from $200, $250 up to about $1,000 per day, depending on the value the app creates. In some cases, if we own the app, all of the revenue comes to us. If it's owned by a partner, there may be some revenue sharing agreement. But generally, there's no operating cost for an app, so it's all EBITDA. On our revenue model for our optimization alpha analytics, we're charging a per-day rate for the days that we do the optimization for our customers. So these are all per day adders to the base rig cost. So what we see happening, Jeff, is that the rig may need to compete on a per rig basis, but all of the adders a la carte to the price of the rig go on top, and there is simply no competition on these technology offerings. We're not being bid down on our technology offerings.

speaker
Jeff Federally
Analyst, Peters and Company

So conceptually, we should think about the $1,500 per day base rate being applied across the 30-plus rigs.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

I think we gave a U.S. penetration rate of about 60%. And in Canada, on our super triples, I didn't give a rate on that, but it's less than 50% right now. But we expect over time that both Canadian and U.S. fleets will trend towards full utilization. Okay.

speaker
Jeff Federally
Analyst, Peters and Company

Thank you. And on the CAPEX side, the $54 million budget, what do you expect? Is there some room built in for maintenance capital tied to the U.S. fleet ramping up faster than you had previously talked about? Or is there some potential that your capital program needs to expand? Obviously ignoring the comment earlier about the reactivations internationally.

speaker
Carey Ford
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hey Jeff, it's Carey. I would say that that capital plan of $54 million incorporates a steady increase in activity in our U.S. recount throughout the year. That's how we budgeted it. Now, if there's a sharp ramp, if we get to an activity level that's higher than what Kevin guided to, kind of high 40s towards the end of the year, there would be a little bit of an increase, but we're talking probably low single digits, millions of dollars.

speaker
Jeff Federally
Analyst, Peters and Company

In the $3 to $5 million per rig for the international, that would be incremental to that 54 number that's currently guided?

speaker
Carey Ford
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

That would be. But again, that would be associated with signing a long-term contract.

speaker
Jeff Federally
Analyst, Peters and Company

Thanks for the call.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Your next question comes from Dan Hill with Canadian Press. Your line is open.

speaker
Dan Hill
Reporter, Canadian Press

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I was looking for some comment on Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau announcing bigger emission targets for Canada and the U.S. by 2030, and I heard on the call that Precision Drilling is doing things to help customers Thank you, Dan.

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

I think there's an absence of process or plan behind the targets, but you need to start with the target. I understand that. And I think the objectives that they're trying to achieve, we agree with and we support. And in our case, there are solutions for drilling rigs that take them to essentially zero emissions almost immediately. We've done that in the past with grid-powered drilling rigs. and that's not science fiction. It's easy to accomplish. The only issue is having adequate grid power in the field to the rig. But as these fields mature and become more industrialized, I expect to see more industrial grade electric power applied to the fields and that likely gets better. So I think that from a drilling perspective, getting to zero or near zero or certainly getting to the targets they've talked about, which are 40% and 50% reductions, are achievable, and in our case, to convert one of our super triple rigs from a diesel-powered rig to a highline-powered rig is a very small amount of capital.

speaker
Dan Hill
Reporter, Canadian Press

Okay, just as a follow-up, are there things that the government should be doing for the oil and gas companies and the drilling companies to get them to these targets?

speaker
Kevin Neveu
President and Chief Executive Officer

You know, I think that any of the technology incubators or technology plants Thanks very much. Thanks, Dan.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll give the call back to Dustin Honing for closing remarks.

speaker
Dustin Honing
Director of Investment Relations and Corporate Development

Thank you everyone for joining today's call. We look forward to speaking with you when we report second quarter results in July. Denise, you may disconnect. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

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