Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Rob and I'm your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's fourth quarter and full year results, 2024 earnings conference column webcast. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. Later, we'll conduct a question and answer session for members of the financial community. At that time, if you have a question, you'll need to press the star and the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press the star and the number two. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, February 25, 2025, and will be available for replay as an audio webcast on PSEG's investor relations website at https colon forward slash forward slash investor dot PSEG dot com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.

Good morning and welcome to PSEG's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings presentation. On today's call are Ralph LaRosa, Chair President and CEO, and Dan Craig, Executive Vice President and CFO. The press release attachments and slides for today's discussion are posted on our IR website at investor dot PSEG dot com, and our 10K will be filed later today. PSEG's earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings, which differs from net income, as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's materials. Following our prepared remarks, we will conduct a 30-minute question and answer session. I will now turn the call over to Ralph LaRosa.

Thank you, Carlotta, and thank you everyone for joining us this morning to review PSEG's 2024 results and our outlook for the business going forward. Let's start with our strong results. PSEG reported net income of 57 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2024 and $3.54 per share for the full year. For non-GAAP operating earnings, PSEG reported results of 84 cents per share for the fourth quarter and $3.68 per share for the full year, which was at the top of our 2024 guidance range. Our reported results for 2024 also marked the 20th consecutive year that we have met or exceeded management's non-GAAP operating earnings guidance to investors. We are proud of this track record and confident that our team will continue to build on it. We were also successful in achieving our strategic and regulatory objectives for 2024. First, we settled PSEG's first electric and gas distribution rate case in six years, all with a balanced outcome that recovers prudent investments, maintains our favorable affordability profile, and mitigates variability for our customers. Second, PSEG received approval to invest $2.9 billion in the Clean Energy Future Energy Efficiency 2 program over the upcoming six-year period. This second phase of the BPU's statewide energy efficiency framework has resulted in a meaningful increase to the program, which will enable us to make investments at more customer premises, to reduce energy usage, improve affordability, and reduce carbon emissions. Third, we efficiently executed the utility's plan $3.6 billion capital spending program and notably completed the advanced metering infrastructure program on time and on budget, installing approximately 2.2 million smart meters in customers, homes, and businesses. And fourth, and I'm very happy to say, we implemented new deferral mechanisms for pension and storm expense coming out of the rate case. This increases the predictability of PSEG's future financial results and stabilizes rates for customers. Speaking of customer rates, the new base rates that were placed into effect last October represented an annual increase of about 1% per year since our last rate case in 2018. Also, last October, PSEG lowered its gas commodity charge to 33 cents per therm for the winter of 2025, the third supply charge reduction since January of 2023. All of these steps will serve to moderate the recent outcome of the BGS auction results, which will increase customer electric bills this June 1st. PSEG's record of reliability, affordability, and customer satisfaction continues to be a valuable combination. We were recently named number one in customer satisfaction with residential electric and gas service in the east among large utilities by JD Power in 2024. The utility also received the PA Consulting 2024 Reliability I Award for the Mid-Atlantic Region for the 23rd consecutive year. I wanna take a moment to recognize and thank all of our over 13,000 employees for the incredible teamwork and individual efforts that delivered 2024 strategic objectives and financial results. So let's turn to our outlook for 2025, starting with slides five and six. For the current year, we have initiated PSEG's non-GAAP operating earnings guidance at $3.94 to $4.06 per share, which is up by 9% at the midpoint over our 2024 reported results. Our 2025 guidance midpoint is the new base year for PSEG's 5% to 7% non-GAAP operating earnings CAGR at the nuclear production tax credit threshold for the 2025 to 2029 period. I would also note this CAGR, while unchanged as we pursue incremental revenue opportunities at PSEG nuclear, starts from a $4 midpoint of 2025 guidance that is 9% higher than our 2024 non-GAAP results. For 2025, we plan to invest $4 billion across enterprise driven by regulated investments. We also raised PSEG's 2025 to 2029 capital spending plan to $22.5 billion to $26 billion, which is up by 3.5 billion from the prior plan. This increase is largely comprised of incremental investments at PSE and GAE that will meet growing customer demand, modernize infrastructure, and further execute on a previously mentioned energy efficiency programs. Please see slides 14 and 15 for the updated regulated capital spending plan and rate-based projections for the 2025 to 2029 period. This updated five-year capital spending program is expected to support a PSE and GAAP rate-based CAGR that continues at 6% to .5% over the upcoming five-year period, which grows from a starting point of approximately $34 billion, which is notably 12% higher than the year in 2023 balance. Something new for PSE and GAE this year has been a significant increase in inquiries from large load and data center customers. Last year at this time, these totaled under 400 megawatts. Today, the interest has grown to 4,700 megawatts, which includes both mature leads and initial inquiries. This pipeline represents an over 12-fold increase over the last year. The average size of these project leads is in the 100 megawatt range, which can often fit within PSE and GAE's existing robust utility transmission infrastructure. We are responding to these inquiries in under four months on average. Approximately 25% of the 4,700 megawatts of new business leads have been incorporated into PJM's 2025 system peak load forecast. As I mentioned earlier, the Basic Generation Service auction results will raise the residential electric bill starting June 1st. This increase is being driven by the significant rise in the capacity prices coming out of PJM's latest RPM auction conducted last July, which reflects growing energy demand combined with the need for new power generation. As a reminder, electric supplies have passed through costs that PSE and GAE does not earn a profit on. Even with this upcoming BGS increase, our combined bill still compares favorably to all other utilities in New Jersey, and we remain a leader across the nation on our low share of wallet comparison. PSE and GAE's bill remains at about 3% of total income for medium income customers, and even lower still, approximately 2%, for our low to moderate income customers that take advantage of payment assistance programs. Turning to PSE and GAE power and other, while the PTC threshold provides sufficient support to meet PSE and GAE's 5% to 7% long-term growth outlook, we continue to pursue nuclear revenue growth opportunities at PSEG nuclear that would be incremental. These opportunities to contract portions of our nuclear output under long-term contracts can also benefit the economic development interests of the state in helping to attract AI hubs to New Jersey. We had an exceptional year in 2024, continuing to execute on our business plan, and in doing so have made our businesses more predictable and our earnings growth more visible. These benefits will enhance our ability to drive our future performance that prioritizes maintaining our financial strength, making disciplined investments, and delivering operational excellence. Another key PSEG distinction that we are proud to extend our ability to continue supporting another robust five-year capital program without the need to issue new equity or sell assets through 2029, even with the latest $3.5 billion increase over the prior plan. Before I conclude, I wanna highlight that our board of directors recently announced a 12-cent per share increase in PSEG's annual common dividend to indicative annual rate of $2.52 per share for 2025. This is PSEG's 14th consecutive annual increase made possible by a long-standing commitment to financial discipline that has enabled us to pay a common dividend to our shareholders for 118 consecutive years. I'll now turn the call over to Dan to walk you through the results for the quarter and our outlook for 2025 through 29 period, and then rejoin the call for Q&A.

Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everybody. As Ralph mentioned earlier, the PSEG reported net income of $3.54 per share for the full year of 2024, compared with net income of $5.13 per share for 2023, and non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year of 2024 were $3.68 per share compared to $3.48 per share for 2023. For the fourth quarter of 2024, net income was 57 cents per share compared to $1.10 per share in 2023, and non-GAAP operating earnings were 84 cents per share in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to 54 cents per share in 2023. Slides eight and 10 detail the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings per share by business segment for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, and slides nine and 11 contain waterfall charts that take you through the net changes for the quarter over quarter and full year periods in non-GAAP operating earnings per share by major business. Starting with PSEG, which reported fourth quarter of 2024 net income of 75 cents per share compared to 58 cents per share in 2023. PSEG had non-GAAP operating earnings of 75 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to 59 cents per share in 2023. Utilities results were driven by the implementation of new electric and gas based distribution rates. The new rates went into effect on October 15th, and the fourth quarter results reflect the impact of seasonality of gas revenues during winter months. 2025 comparisons will benefit from a full year of new rates for both gas and electric revenues. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, transmission margin was a benefit of two cents per share due to higher recovery of investment. Distribution margin increased by 16 cents per share and reflects the impacts of the rate case on gas revenues in the fourth quarter. Distribution on expense was a penny per share favorable compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily due to the timing of spending Depreciation and interest expense rose by a penny per share and two cents per share, respectively, compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, reflecting continued growth in investment and higher interest expense. Lower pension and OPEB income resulting from the cessation of OPEB related credits, which ended in 2023, resulted in a two cent per share unfavorable comparison to the year earlier quarter. And lastly, the timing of taxes recorded through an annual effective tax rate, which nets to zero over the full year, and other taxes had a net favorable impact of two cents per share in the fourth quarter compared to 2023. And for the full year, PSENG results reflect higher earnings from increased investment in infrastructure replacement and energy efficiency, as well as the rate case, partially offset by higher interest and depreciation expense from higher investment balances. Weather during the fourth quarter, as measured by heating degree days, was 12% warmer than normal, but 3% cooler than the fourth quarter of 2023. As I'm sure you know, weather variations have a minimal impact on PSENG's utility margin because of the Conservation Incentive Program, or SIP, mechanism. This decoupling mechanism limits the impact of weather and other sales variances, positive or negative, on electric and gas margins, while helping PSENG promote the widespread adoption of its energy efficiency program. Under the SIP, the number of electric and gas customers is what drives margin, and each segment grew by approximately 1% in 2024. On capital spending, as Ralph mentioned, PSENG invested approximately 0.9 billion, or 900 million, during the fourth quarter. And for the full year 2024, our capital spending totaled 3.6 billion, slightly higher than our original plan of $3.4 billion, based on the continued execution of our electric system reliability programs, including energy strong and last mile spend in the IAP, our ongoing gas infrastructure replacement spending, as well as our energy efficiency programs. For 2025, we plan to invest approximately $3.8 billion in regulated investments, focused on infrastructure modernization, energy efficiency, and meeting growing demand and electrification initiatives. We've rolled forward our five-year regulated capital investment plan through 2029, amounting to $21 billion to $24 billion, compared to our prior plan of $18 billion to $21 billion. The $3 billion increase in regulated investments is driven by incremental reliability and resiliency investments under PSENG's existing infrastructure programs and the CEF EE2 program. Our 2025 to 2029 regulated capital investment plan is expected to produce compound annual growth in rate base of six to 7.5%, starting from a year-end 2024 rate base of approximately $34 billion, including construction work in progress. And as Ralph mentioned, is an increase of approximately 12% over the same number for year-end 2023. Moving to PSG Power and Other, for the fourth quarter of 2024, PSG Power and Other reported a net loss of 18 cents per share, compared to net income of 52 cents per share in the fourth quarter of 2023, non-GAAP operating earnings were nine cents per share for the fourth quarter, compared to a non-GAAP operating earnings loss of five cents per share in the fourth quarter of 2023. For the fourth quarter of 2024, net energy margin rose by 18 cents per share, driven by higher re-contracting prices at nuclear, which includes the net impact of the nuclear PTC that took effect January 1st of 2024. As anticipated, we realized a significant portion of the increase in the 2024 gross margin over 2023's gross margin during the second half of the year, based upon the shape of our underlying hedges. O&M was a penny per share unfavorable, interest expense was two cents per share higher, reflecting incremental debt at higher rates, and lower pension income and OPEB credits were one cent per share unfavorable versus the fourth quarter of 2023. Taxes and Other were a penny per share favorable, compared to the year earlier quarter. On the operating side, the nuclear fleet produced approximately 7.3 terawatt hours during the fourth quarter and approximately 31 terawatt hours for the full year, running at a capacity factor of approximately 86 percent and 90 percent for the quarter and full year, respectively. Touching on some recent financing activity, as of the end of December, PCG had total available liquidity of $2.6 billion, including approximately $100 million of cash on hand. Through December 2024, cash from operations was strong, though well below the 2023 level, which was substantially helped by the return of cash collateral. Our cash collateral balance was approximately $250 million as of December 31st, which supported our strong liquidity position. Last November, PSE&G repaid its $250 million, 3.05 percent secured medium term notes or MTMs upon maturity. And in December of 2024, PSE&G Power entered into a new 364-day variable rate term loan for $400 million, supported by the strength of its cash flow. And also in December, PSE&G Power amended its existing $1.25 billion variable rate three-year term loan agreement to extend the maturity from March to June of 2025 which just helps manage our cash position during the upcoming year. At the end of 2024, Power had $1.65 billion of debt outstanding, with $1.25 billion swapped to a fixed rate, mitigating fluctuations in interest rates through March of 2025. And given our swaps, we continue to have a low level of variable rate debt, approximately just 7 percent of total debt at year end. Looking ahead, our solid balance sheet supports the execution of PSE&G's five-year capital spending plan dominated by regulated CAPEX without the need to sell new equity or assets and provides for the opportunity for consistent and sustainable dividend growth. Before I conclude my remarks, let's review some earnings drivers for 2025, and those are outlined on slide five. The most impactful driver will be the implementation of new distribution base rates in effect for the full year. Recall that the fourth quarter of 2024 is a seasonal peak for gas, which comes into play in a projection of the new base rates over a full year. Also note electric seasonality will produce a similar impact in the third quarter of this year. In addition, clause-based recoveries for investments in GSMP, the Infrastructure Enhancement Program, or IAP, will be added to the 2020 and the CEF Energy Efficiency II Program will also add to 2025 utility margin. Partly offsetting these positives are higher O&M interest and depreciation expense, reflecting higher investment balances at PSE&G, as well as higher interest expense at PCG Power and Tarrant related to refinancing maturities at higher current interest costs. At PCG Nuclear, our 100 percent-owned Hope Creek Nuclear Unit has a scheduled refueling set for the fall of 2025 that will include the fuel cycle extension work to extend its next scheduled refueling in 24 months to the fall of 2027. And as a reminder, the zero-emission certificate amounts earned by our New Jersey Nuclear Units will conclude in May of 2025. In closing, we delivered our 20th year in a row of meeting or exceeding our guidance, and we carry that confidence forward to our full year 2025 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.94 to $4.06 per share, approximately 9 percent higher at the midpoint over 2024 results. We also extended our 5 to 7 percent non-GAAP operating earnings CAGR through 2029, starting with 2025 as the base year. As Ralph mentioned, we're continuing to pursue incremental revenue opportunities at PCG Nuclear, which could enhance that long-term growth CAGR relative to the range that we provided based on the PTC. That concludes our formal remarks, and we are ready to begin the -and-answer session.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the -and-answer session for members of the financial community. If you have a question, please press the star and the number one on your telephone keypad. If your question has been answered and you wish to withdraw your polling request, you may do so by pressing the star and the number two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before entering your request. One moment, please, for the first question. The first question comes from the line of Shar Parusa with Guggenheim Partners. Please just see with your questions.

Hey, guys. Good morning. Morning, Shar. Hi, Shar. Morning, Ralph. Morning, Dan. So, just, Ralph, starting off on the nuclear side with Artificial Island, do you see sort of commercial discussions being delayed with the recent actions at FERC? Does the complexity of like -the-meter deals change the deal structure to potential opportunities around -the-meter, in any sense on timing, especially given the governor's ambitions? Thanks.

Yeah, thanks, Shar. So, I'm going to let Dan give you some details on that, since you mentioned the governor. I would just say this on that front. You know, he, well, New Jersey Economic Development Authority has made a few comments about their wind port, and specifically that they're looking at alternative uses for that wind port. So, that's one thing that we just want to point out. The governor has also mentioned that he has, in a recent call-in show, that they're looking at alternate uses for it. So, you kind of put those pieces together, and we know that there's some interest, from the governor's standpoint and from New Jersey's standpoint, to continue for us to look to pursue these opportunities. And, you know, as far as, so that's the timing issue that you hit on the back end. And Dan will kind of address generically the upfront piece.

Yeah, I think, Shar, our messaging there is really fairly consistent. I think we've continued to see interest. We continue to have discussions with multiple parties for various elements of what we're talking about, and that interest remains strong. So, I think you touched on FERC as well. I think that while it would have been great to have complete answers throughout everything, from what FERC said, I don't know that we necessarily expected that, and we've got to wait for some. But I think, directionally, what they said was favorable for the flexibility to do what you want to do, and those details have yet to be written. So, we'll continue to see what happens there, but I think our messaging is really consistent with respect to what's going on related to nuclear.

Yeah, and the glass half full on the FERC, Shar, just to reinforce that. The timing of it is pretty aggressive, and it was a clear message from FERC on their need to get to a solution here. So, we took that as a positive. We certainly could have been in a different place, at least for the one potential solution behind the meter. It's still in front of the meter, and there's still other offload opportunities there.

And that's a fair point. I appreciate that, Ralph. And then, I just want to make sure, does the PSE&G pipeline of opportunities and inquiries you just highlighted, it's over four gigs, does that negate any of the artificial island opportunities? So, in other words, any chance that a potential deal with artificial island kind of shifts towards the front of the meter with PSE&G or the artificial island counterparty is completely separate from the PSE&G conversations you just highlighted. Thanks.

Yeah, so I think the message on the 4,700 megawatts, which includes other things besides data centers, we were clear in there was data centers plus large load. And believe it or not, we're still seeing some large electric vehicle interconnections that are taking place, so it's a number of items. I think there's two takeaways, though, that we want to make sure, first of all, from a data center standpoint, there's interest from the industry in New Jersey, when you're seeing 4,700 megawatts showing up. That's a request that is, that are showing up. So, that's part one. And part two is the state's marketing in this area has been working. They've got a helix that they've announced in New Brunswick. There's a number of Nokia, Bell Labs just announced that they're going to be in New Brunswick. So, there's a number of the efforts that are taking place or are taking hold, and we just look forward to the momentum continuing.

Fantastic. Thank you guys so much. Appreciate it and great execution.

Thanks, Charles.

The next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please, just to see if there are questions.

Oh, hey, thanks. Good morning. Hey, David. Hey, David. Hey, how you doing? Let me see. I guess the PJM auction has been getting a lot of attention recently. FERC is going to be, you know, re-looking at auction structures, and a number of changes are underway now. I was wondering if you could comment on how you're, you know, thinking about the outlook for the PJM market. You know, what could change? Are there possibilities of structural changes here, and how do you navigate that, maybe both from a customer impact and for your nuclear fleet?

Yeah, so I think the way we are specifically addressing it is by setting all of our targets off the PTC floor. We've been very clear about that and the impacts there. I will, from a customer standpoint, we will do everything in our power to help keep customer costs down from an affordability standpoint. We will, we have done that. We will continue to advocate on that behalf. I just don't know whether or not the premise or the question of the PJM market is valid, because I don't know if there is a PJM market anymore, and we've been talking to that for quite some time. So, you know, my concern there is mostly from a reliability standpoint, are we going to be able, in this construct, to attract generation to the PJM region as a whole? And if so, is it going to be in a timely enough fashion for everything that we have going on in the region? So, those are the questions at hand. It's really focused on reliability and affordability for us, and we're going to keep advocating on customer's behalf in both of those areas.

Yeah, I think, you know, just to add on to that a little bit, David, I think those are the longer-term elements that are going to be really important for resource adequacy, and it's vital to get that right. And I think there's still work to be done there. I think for the nearer term, you know, to the extent that this collar and pricing ends up being put forth for a couple of years, it can give you a little bit more stability as to where things are going to turn out. But I go back again to Ralph's first comment, that what we're basically putting out from a financial standpoint is the PTC floor. So, to the extent that things move below that, that floor is there. If it moves above that, there could be some potential benefit for us. But I think Job One is getting resource adequacy right.

Yeah, absolutely. I appreciate that color. And maybe somewhat related, I guess, you know, is the uncertainty in the outlook for PJM broadly a deterrent, you know, for new large load customers, new, maybe new customers broadly looking at the market? You know, there's been, I guess, with all these changes being considered for the auction construct and looking at the resource adequacy challenges ahead in the market. Are you seeing that, you know, lowering the interest levels from some of these customers? Any perspective there would be helpful.

Yeah, no, I point you back to the data in the prepared remarks where we talked about the increase from 400, I think, megawatts to 4,700 megawatts of interest in large load in New Jersey alone. So I really can't talk for the other jurisdictions, but certainly in New Jersey, we're still seeing that uptick that we that were reflected in those remarks.

Yeah, got it. That's fair. Great. I'll leave it there. Thanks so much. Thanks.

Our next question is from the line of Nick Campanella with Barclays. Please receive your questions.

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the time. Morning. Morning. Hey, so I just want to put a finer point on Shar's question, just in terms of bringing a, you know, maybe a commercial deal forward for the nuclear fleet. Are you still watching and waiting for the state at this point? Or is it really waiting on FERC? And then just to follow up to that is just as we kind of think about the timeline, if a large load customer was to be able to connect to the facility, what's the timeline for ramp? And it can that affect earnings in 2027? Or is this more later data towards the end of the decade?

Thanks. Yeah, Nick, I think that we're not waiting on anything on the state. And I think we're not waiting anything either from the standpoint of FERC. I think that some of the details with respect to what flexibility there can be may come out of where that goes. But I think there's the ability to continue work and we are continuing work with respect to the state that we're in right now. You know, we're it's interesting. I do think that there was some expectation by some that we might see something more definitive come out of FERC. But I will say that they did highlight 30 days and another 30 days. They seem to have understood the urgency in what they said, even though we didn't get complete clarity in what they did. So I think that urgency will be helpful as we continue to go forward. But it's not stopping anything, I think, from the standpoint of some final details as to how some things can be done. It may add some flexibility.

OK, and then just like the I guess the the ramp for a customer, it does take time for these data centers to ramp up, it seems like. And I'm just wondering, is this something that you think can impact the outlook on the five year plan or is it is it more longer data than that?

Yeah, think about it in a couple of different ways, Nick. I would say that to the extent that there is a sale of what exists today, then something could happen quicker to the extent that somebody needs to build a data center for that power to flow to. It's going to take a little bit longer. So I think depending upon the nature of where things go, and there's a couple of things that we're working towards, that's going to dictate the timing as to when you might see something in the bottom line.

OK, I appreciate that. And then just following up on the the capacity auction commentary, just wanted to try to understand, you know, if we kind of continue to clear near the 270 level, how does that kind of impact your gross receipts calculation out to 27 and where you are in the range? Thanks.

Yeah, so I would say, you know, as you go out in time, you're going to have to take a look at what's in place from the standpoint of edging and where the market goes, and then you're going to lay that capacity price on top of it. I'll remind you that at least in in the structural formation of how the capacity auction is set, it's based upon a net cone, which is net of energy. And I think that as you do see one price rise, the other price should react in the opposite direction. The price is being energy and capacity. So we saw some of that when we saw the last clear go up. We saw a temporary decline in energy prices. And so there is a relationship there. I think that if I were you and I was looking out in time, I think to the extent that you saw increases in energy and you thought that we were going to clear higher, it would move us higher within the range or above the range, depending upon where you go. We have the comfort of the floor. I think the stability of that is really important to us and should be for you to think about how the results are going to go. But that upside is there to the extent that markets move up.

And don't and don't the only thing I would add is not to forget in those calculations that you make that there's a there's an inflation adjustment to that floor. So in the out years that that will that will impact where those lines cross, which I think was the root of your question.

Absolutely, absolutely. And I appreciate the commentary on the range of helpful. Thank you. Thanks.

Our next question is from the line of Paul Fremont with Leidenberg-Falment. Please just see with your question.

Great. I guess first question, can you give us sort of any color on on hedges that you have at Peg Power? Has has normally, I guess you would be at 90 percent for this year. What how should we think about sort of, you know, past guidance versus where you are right now?

If Paul, what we have done and what we have said that we've done is try to balance the existing uncertainty of the definition of grocery seats in order to try to make sure that we're going forward in a way that minimizes our risk of results, understanding that we do have a PTC floor. What I would tell you directionally is that has not resulted in kind of radical shifts from the standpoint of what those hedging percentages would have been back when we had more of a three year rattle. So, you know, to your point, if you want to think about being somewhere in the 90s and 25 and maybe two thirds and 26 and a third and 27 is, but we would have told you based upon a more rattle approach. And while we've made some movements to that, don't think of that as being very radically different than the rattle approach.

Great. And then I guess you used to provide sort of a breakout of net income guidance between the utility and and PEG Power and other. Is there a reason why you've not done that for this year?

It's just I think we made that change a year or two back, Paul, and we're comfortable with leaving it at the enterprise level. There's 90 percent utility. We've been pretty consistent about that. So give or takes in that range. But we're comfortable discussing this at the enterprise level.

And then just to sort of follow up on Nick's question, the gross margin sensitivity that you provide includes capacity prices to the extent that the auctions continue.

Let's hear a question in there.

Oh, the question is, should we in other words, you give a dollar per megawatt hour as sensitivity. Does that include the dollar per megawatt hour equivalent of the capacity auctions?

Yeah, I think about that as an all in price that you would see for a megawatt hour. And yes, you'd have to variable that fixed charge. But yes, that's right. Yeah.

Thank you very much.

Thanks, Paul.

The next question is from the line of Paul Zimbardo with Jeffries. Please proceed with your question.

Are you there, Paul? We

might have lost

Paul.

We might have lost him. Our next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Clon Rock Associates.

We're on a fall roll right now, so we'll keep it going. Hey, Paul. There you go. He's a charm.

So just I mean, it's back to the sort of the sorry, back to the original question about the timing on the co-location. I noticed the the the language that that the that the chair reiterated on Friday and what have you. But what does that actually mean in terms of when you think that an actual order might come out?

Well, I have to take it at their at their face value and that they said they want to come out shortly thereafter. And it was the words that came out in the last statement. So, you know, I mean, we could you could guess at what shortly means, but I think they've been pretty consistent in delivering on what they've said they're going to do. So I wouldn't expect it to be much beyond the 60 days if that is the path that's taken.

OK, and then you also said something that was interesting about the PGM market or the lack thereof. This is something that obviously is being there's just a lot of activity, a lot of discussion, a lot of apprehension, I think, about reliability and pricing and what have you. Do you have any anything you'd like to share in terms of what potentially might be looking for in terms of maybe a longer term set up or something? Or just what are your thoughts about it? I mean, I'd just be curious as to what you think might come out of of all the examination of this market, quote unquote, and what how it might evolve.

Well, I think it's going to depend upon what state you're in and what the economic policies of that state is. You know, you certainly hear certain certain positions being taken in Pennsylvania. You see positions being taken in other states. I've just talked specifically to New Jersey. You know, we have a DECA, which is the law of the land here from a generation standpoint, and the utilities are not involved in that process. We do have PSEG nuclear, which is involved right now in the generation side of the business. But New Jersey is at a crossroads. And I think right now we're we're all trying to figure out the best way to move forward. I don't think there's a clear answer on it. So I don't want to I don't want to front run any policy decisions that are being made in the state. But it's certainly it's certainly something we need to continue to discuss for the two reasons that we stated up front, affordability for customers and the reliability.

Absolutely. Any idea when we might see something of a proposal or where anything?

Yeah, there's some talk about an energy master plan coming out. But look, to be to be honest about all of this, I think there's some decisions that have to be made that will probably bridge administrations here in New Jersey. Right. So I think what we're trying to do as a company is continue to educate everyone on on the issue and and try to help people think through different different opportunities that the state of New Jersey could pursue.

OK, great. I really appreciate it. Thanks.

Thanks. The next question is from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.

Hello. Hey, Carly.

Hey, thanks for taking the question. Sorry to put a stop to the Paul train there. But thanks for all the colors so far on the power side, maybe just one from me on the the regulated side, just on the the GSM P3 filing. Do you still expect to revisit that this quarter? And then would that be upside to the plan in 26 plus or are there already assumptions kind of baked in after the GSM P2 extension kind of runs itself out?

Yeah, Carly, yeah, we are we are starting to have those conversations and and it is in the plan. Is the simple answer to both of those things. So, you know, that that work is is part of our core business activities and something that we expect to continue. So those conversations have started.

Right. Thank you for that. I'll leave it there.

Thanks, Carly.

The next question is from the line of Paul Zimbardo with Jeffery. We should see if there are questions

back on the Paul train. Hey, can you hear me? Hopefully we're on the

train.

We got it. We got there

we go. Yeah, thank you. The neighbors reception is not always the best. But thank you very much. And one that I want to to fall upon a little bit just on the balance sheet side. So I saw the no additional equity in the outlook, even with the CAFAC increase. Could you level set what was the actual 2024 episode of debt and kind of where do you envision the credit message going throughout the plan?

Yeah, well, I don't have that in my fingertips, and I think you'll be able to pull that together when the when the cake comes out. So I won't jump that. But, you know, we we we continue as we look forward and as we're putting forward the forward looking guidance for the next few years, we continue to be in that teens range and are in a pretty good place from that perspective, which is the reason it gives us the comfort to say exactly what we did say within our prepared remarks.

Okay, got it. I'll follow up on that one. And then shifting a little bit going back to the BDS, looking at the one year results for commercial industrial for your zone. It was very high on a dollar per mega lot. It's almost seven hundred dollars and I know that you do not participate in that with your unregulated fleet. But just, are there any thoughts or kind of takeaways of what that indicates for what New Jersey could look like without robust supply response for customers?

Yeah, so so Paul, that we were, I think, around 17% all in in the numbers that were generated by the state and published. And I think that there were other ones that were up in the 20. These are residential provider of last resort rates that that are in that BGS. Right. So, first of all, customers are certainly have the opportunity to shop. I would expect some of that to happen from third party suppliers. But for those customers that are relying on BGS, it is it is something that we have to lean in on. Certainly from a payment assistance standpoint, which we're working on and then also from our energy efficiency program and continuing to get the energy efficiency message out for customers and helping them gain access to those programs. So those are the two pieces that I would say it means what it means to us in the state of New Jersey. But we are higher, but not as high as some other areas in the state.

Yeah, I mean, just a reminder on that BGS contract that that's not something that that we profit from that the pass through coming from the supply providers. And the biggest element related to the increase that we are seeing is coming from the auction that happened at PJM. And so that I do think you probably will see more interest in shopping. But I think at the end of the day, the providers are going to have to go back to that same well, which had some higher prices in the last auction.

Okay, and to clarify more specifically commercial and industrial, like they are so clear that six hundred ninety six dollars a day for PC and you just to get any thoughts on that.

Thank you. Yeah, I mean, I think it's still coming from the same supplier base, just just with a different calculation going to them. And I think the same ability to shop is going to exist there. So I think you've got a parallel dynamic that's going on within that sector as well.

Thank

you

very much.

Thanks, Paul.

Thank you. Our final question is from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizzouho. Please just see with your question.

Hey, hey, good morning, Dan. Good morning, Ralph. Just a quick follow up. Quick follow up to Paul Patterson and kind of the comment you're making about maybe the PJM market. I don't know if you said it doesn't exist or whatever. Just is the state of New Jersey in a net long position on generation? And if so, what's the reserve margin there? Or do you have a reserve margin?

Yeah, so the state of New Jersey does not have an integrated resource plan. So there is not a reserve margin set for the state of New Jersey that anybody can quote you. But we are short, right? So if you look at some of the information that's out there, New Jersey is a net importer, especially on the peak days. So we look to PJM and PJM has still, the last numbers I saw were we had about 2%, but more margin than what their target was, right? The question is, as this load comes in, where do we move to and where does that reserve margin get to, which is the need for the additional generation and the resource adequacy conversation we keep having. Right,

so as Ralph said, you know, peak times are going to be different than off-peak seasonal. It matters a lot when you are talking about it, but across the year we are a net importer.

Is one of the options that is just a question, you know, obviously you say they need a resource adequacy plan, but is it similar to maybe other states that have gone maybe like, I think FRR or just pulled out the generation and the load, is that one of the multitude of options that the state could face or should I be thinking about something different?

Yeah, no, I absolutely believe that that's something that the state could consider, right? The state could go in a bunch of different paths, but the DECA is the, you know, I keep referring back to that from, you know, back in the 2000 timeframe when we deregulated and the rules were put in place. And we count on PJM, right? And that's the market that's out there. So when I say I'm not sure about what kind of market it is, it's a market that has been influenced by a number of factors. And so they're trying to balance affordability and reliability with a free market, and that's a tough thing to do. So we'll see where it goes. But it's certainly something that from a state of New Jersey standpoint, we're going to keep banging the desk about because we've got to get it right as we participate in that market.

Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Thanks, Anthony.

Thank you. I'd like to turn the floor back to Mr. LaRosa for closing comments.

Well, thank you, Rob.

So, look, I think we had a lot of conversation about where we expected it to be, which was on a lot of the nuclear output and the potential data centers and so on and so forth. But I don't want to lose sight for one minute of all the good work that was completed back in 2024. And that's not a complaint about what we talked about, but simply a statement of a fact that the team executed on everything that it had in front of it last year, not the least of which was the ray case, the storms that came through this area, the cold weather snaps that we had, and so on and so forth. So I want to end with a comment that was made in the beginning of in the middle of my prepared remarks, which is a thank you to the employees that are here at PSEG. We do a fantastic job day in and day out, and that shows up in a multitude of areas. So thank you. Thank you. Thank you. We look forward to seeing you at one of the road shows.

Thanks. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. May disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.