7/30/2024

speaker
P&G Operator
Operator

Good morning and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter-end conference call. Today's event is being recorded for replay. This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections. As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its investor relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer. Andre Scholten.

speaker
Andre Scholten
Chief Financial Officer

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are John Moeller, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer, and John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. I will start with an overview of results for fiscal year 24 and for the fourth quarter. John will add perspective on our strategic focus areas and capabilities, and we'll close with guidance for fiscal 25 and then take your questions. Fiscal 24 was another strong year. Execution of our integrated strategies enabled the company to meet or exceed going in guidance ranges for organic sales growth, core EPS growth, cash productivity, and cash return to share owners. All this despite significant market level headwinds that were largely unknown when we gave our initial outlook for the year. Organic sales growth for the fiscal year was 4%, our sixth consecutive year of 4% or better organic growth against a strong 7% comp in the prior year and in more challenging market conditions. Growth was broad-based across business units with 8 of 10 product categories growing organic sales. Home care, hair care, and grooming were up high single digits. Oral care and feminine care up mid-singles. Fabric care, family care, and personal health care grew low single digits. Skin and personal care and baby care were down low singles. Focus markets grew 4% for the year, with North America up 5% and Europe focus markets up 8%. Razor China organic sales were down 9% versus the prior year, driven by soft market conditions and brand-specific headwinds on SK2. Enterprise markets were up 6%, led by Latin America, with 15% organic sales growth. E-commerce sales increased 9%, now representing 18% of the total company. Our strategy focused on driving market growth continues to drive share growth for P&G. All-channel market value sales in the U.S. categories in which we compete grew around 5% in fiscal 24. P&G consumption grew ahead of our fair share of category growth. driving modest value and volume share growth for the year. We grew global aggregate value share, 30 of 50 category-country combinations held or grew share for the year. Importantly, the share growth is broad-based. Six of 10 product categories grew share globally over the past year. Core earnings per share were $6.59, up 12% for the year. Core growth margin improved 360 basis points, and core operating margin increased 170 basis points. Over $2.3 billion of productivity improvements enabled by significant increase in investment in superior products, packages, and brand communication to drive market growth. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS was up 16%, and core operating margin increased 250 basis points. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 105%. We increased our dividend by 7% and returned over $14 billion of value to share owners, $9.3 billion in dividends, and $5 billion in share repurchase. Moving on to fourth quarter results, organic sales rounded down to 2%. Volume was up 2%, solid sequential progress. Pricing was up 1%, and mix was in line with prior year. Growth continues to be broad-based across categories and regions. Nine of 10 product categories grew or held organic sales in the quarter. Home care, hair care, grooming, and oral care were each up high single digits. Feminine care up low singles. Skin and personal care, fabric care, personal health care, and family care were each in line with prior year. Baby care was down mid-singles. Five of seven regions grew organic sales, with focus markets up 2% and enterprise markets up 2% for the quarter. Organic sales in North America grew 4%, with four points of volume growth and price mix in line with prior year. European-focused markets organic sales were up 2% against a strong 12% comp in the base period. Volume was up 3%, price mix was down a point, as the region has now fully annualized prior year inflation-driven pricing. Latin America organic sales were up 8%, including high singles growth in Brazil, Of note, Argentina's overall contribution to organic sales for the region and the company were lower than in the last few quarters due to the divestiture of a portion of the business in March and a notable decline in shipment volume for the remaining categories. As was announced earlier this month, we have divested the remaining portions of our operations in Argentina. As a result, Argentina will be largely removed from our organic sales reporting in fiscal year 25. Select P&G brands will still be available in the market through a distribution and licensing agreement with the new owner of the operations. Greater China organic sales declined 8%. Underlying market conditions have remained weak, and the 6-18 key consumption period was down sharply versus prior year, just as we saw in the 11-11 Chinese New Year and Valentine's Day shopping periods. Also, brand-specific headwinds have continued on SK-II due to its Japanese heritage. We expect general market trends and the dynamics related to SK2 to improve over time, though it will likely be another quarter or two until we return to growth. Volume trends in some Europe enterprise and Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Russia have remained soft. We expect these headwinds to moderate or annualize over the coming periods. Global aggregate market share was down 30 basis points as we are now annualizing very strong growth in European focus markets. 25 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the quarter. On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.40, up 2% versus the prior year. On a currency neutral basis, core EPS increased 6%. Core growth margin increased 140 basis points, and cooperating margin decreased 100 basis points. Strong productivity improvements of 250 basis points, funding a meaningful increase in marketing investment, currency neutral cooperating margin decreased 60 basis points. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 148%. We returned nearly $4 billion of cash to share owners this quarter, over $2.4 billion in dividends, and $1.5 billion in share repurchases. In summary, we met or exceeded each of our going-in target ranges for the year, organic sales growth, core EPS growth, free cash flow productivity, and cash return to shareholders. Strong performance again this year in a challenging economic and geopolitical environment. With that, I'll pass it over to John.

speaker
John Moeller
Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Andre. I'll start with a few thoughts on results before discussing the strategy. Our team continues to execute the strategy with excellence, enabling strong results, over each of the past six years, pre-COVID, during COVID, through a historic inflationary and pricing cycle, and through geopolitical tensions. Organic sales growth of plus five, plus six, plus six, plus seven, plus seven, and plus four over the last fiscal years. Strong earnings growth and gross and operating margin expansion. Very strong cash generation. and over $96 billion of cash returned to shareholders over those six years. For fiscal 24, going in organic sales guidance was 4% to 5%. We delivered 4% in a very volatile environment. Flat volume for the year with improving trajectory through the year, 2% growth in the fourth quarter. Strong volume growth in North America and Europe focus markets, offsetting soft markets in enterprise regions in China. Going in core EPS guidance of 6% to 9%, delivered 12%. Core gross margin at a 17-year high, with strong productivity improvement, funding strong marketing investments. Going in cash productivity outlook of 90%, delivered 105%. which enabled a 7% dividend increase, the 68th consecutive year of increase, and the 134th consecutive year paying a dividend. As Andre said, strong results in a challenging environment. To be very clear, there's still more work to do to continue improving areas in our control, which will be needed to offset the headwinds that are largely not in our control. We'll double down on superiority across all five vectors. We'll double down on productivity, up and down the P&L and across the balance sheet. We'll double down on enabling our organization to execute our integrated strategy with excellence to delight consumers and win in the marketplace, to deliver the level of balanced growth and value creation results you and we expect. Our strategy is dynamic and sustainable. It adapts to the changing needs of consumers, customers, and society, and is focused on growing markets, creating versus taking business, the most sustainable and typically most profitable way to grow. A focused portfolio of daily use products and categories where performance drives brand choice. The portfolio is performing, delivering broad-based growth across nearly all categories and most geographies. As you know, we are active managers of our portfolio. Over the last several years, we've made some targeted additions and subtractions in that portfolio. We've adjusted our operating model in several markets. Each of these moves were made with a focus on long-term balanced growth and value creation. The second strategy element, ongoing commitment to an investment in irresistible superiority through innovation, across the five vectors of product, package, brand communication, retail execution, and value, holistically defined. Leveraging that superiority to delight consumers, grow markets, and our share in them to jointly create value with retail partners. The plans across the businesses are broader and stronger than any time in the recent past, as each team works to increase their margin of superiority and consumer delight. Superior innovations that are driven by deep consumer insights, communicated to consumers with more effective and efficient marketing programs, executed in stores and online in conjunction with retailer strategies to grow categories and our brands, and priced to deliver superior value across each price tier where we compete. We've talked many times about the superiority-driven market growth, share growth, and sales growth we've achieved with products like Tide and Aerial Pods, Downey and Lenore Laundry Scent Beads, and Dawn and Ferry Easy Squeeze and Power Wash. Two more examples. Oral-B I.O. power toothbrushes deliver superior cleaning and delightful user experience. Superior communication includes the insight that manual brushes leave 50% of plaque behind. But Oral-B I.O. delivers 100% more plaque bacterial removal with its round head and removes plaque in hard-to-reach places. This superior proposition is accelerating power brush trial and adoption, bringing new power brush users into the category, driving high single-digit market growth of the power brush category, double-digit sales growth for Oral-B Power, and two points of Oral-B value share growth over the past 12 months. Native, our premium personal care brand, is delivering superiority across all five vectors and across multiple product forms, including deodorants, body wash, shampoo, and conditioners. Superior performance with fewer ingredients and irresistible scents. Transparent labeling and clean white packaging. Superior retail execution and strong retailer partnerships showcasing the full range of forms and scents. Premium positioning within the category providing superior value for the consumer looking for an offering with more natural ingredients. Native has driven a step change in market value growth for the U.S. deodorants and personal care categories from low singles to mid-teens. Native sales have grown nearly 10 times over the last five years to over $700 million in fiscal 24. Third strategy element, productivity improvement in all areas of our operations. In order to fund investments in innovation, brand building, and market growth, to mitigate cost and currency challenges and to expand margins and generate cash. We delivered very strong cost savings in fiscal 24. Visibility to more savings opportunities is increasing as the businesses continue to build their three-year rolling productivity master plans. We have an objective for gross savings and cost of goods sold of up to $1.5 billion before tax, enabled by platform programs with global application across categories like supply chain 3.0. We're working in a new way with retailers on the totality of the supply chain, end-to-end versus simply trying to optimize our respective pieces. One example, using data and machine learning algorithms to optimize truck scheduling to minimize idle time for drivers. We're also using digital tools to optimize fill rates and for dynamic routing and sourcing optimization. $200 to $300 million of savings opportunity across these areas. We have line of sight to savings from improved marketing productivity, more efficiency and greater effectiveness, avoiding excess frequency and reducing waste, while increasing reach. We're taking targeted steps to reduce overhead as we digitize more of our operations. Next, constructive disruption of ourselves and our industry. a willingness to change, adapt, and create new trends, technologies, and capabilities that will shape the future of our industry and extend our competitive advantage. We continue to be a constructive disruptor of brand building, in-housing more of the media planning and placement activity using our proprietary tools and consumer data to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of our communication. We're disrupting traditional lab-based innovation models to dramatically increase the speed and breadth of discovery. Last but clearly not least, we've designed and continued to refine an empowered, agile, and accountable organization, an inclusive and diverse organization, enabling us to better serve an increasingly diverse set of consumers. Strong progress across all strategic pillars with significant opportunity ahead of us. No reason to stand still. as illustrated by the four focus areas that we've outlined previously. Number one, supply chain 3.0. It's delivering productivity, as you can see in the results. We're also driving improved agility, flexibility, scalability, and transparency in a rapidly evolving landscape. Optimized, sustainable, and flexible, up and down the supply chain, inclusive of our retail partners. All of this is driving higher quality, increased supply assurance, and higher on-shelf availability of our products. And, of course, better cash and cost structures. These programs improve superiority with consumers and further strengthen what is already the top-ranked supply chain by our retail partners in third-party industry surveys. Next, environmental sustainability. Superior propositions for consumers, customers, and shareholders that are more sustainable. driving sales and profitability while reducing the footprint of our operations, enabling consumers to reduce their footprint, and innovating to deliver cross-industry solutions for some of our most pressing challenges. The next focus area is digital acumen, leveraging data and digitization to delight consumers, streamline the supply chain, increase quality, drive productivity, all driving shareholder value. One example is the improvement we've delivered in ad copy qualification and media buying with proprietary digital tools we've developed and the digital molecule development work in fabric care. We've built similar tools to drive faster, cheaper, and better innovation in perfume, which benefits almost every product category in the company. We're also digitizing more of our back office work processes to lower costs and drive efficiencies while delivering higher quality output. Each of these examples has obvious cost benefits, but they're also driving product and package superiority, superior brand communication to consumers, superior retail execution in store and online, stronger internal controls and jobs that enable people to focus on higher order tasks with greater business impact. Last focus area, superior value equation for all employees, for all roles, to ensure we continue to attract, retain, and develop the best talent and our best position to serve all consumers. These four focus areas are not separate strategies. They simply strengthen our ability to execute our integrated growth strategy. Our strategic choices on portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption on the organization, reinforce and build on each other. We continue to believe there's merit in doubling down on this integrated strategy. starting with a commitment to deliver irresistibly superior propositions to consumers and retail partners fueled by productivity. We remain as confident as ever in our strategy and our ability to drive market growth and to deliver balanced growth and value creation to delight consumers, customers, employees, society, and shareholders. At the end of the day, P&G serves people with a strong desire to improve their lives, and the lives of their families. I believe in the capabilities and commitment of P&G people to serve consumers and to do this in the most responsible way, consistent with P&G's values and principles. I'm excited about what lays ahead. Of course, we'll continue to face challenges, but the future holds great promise. We have many opportunities ahead to grow markets, grow our business, and create significant value for our owners. With that, I'll hand it back to Andre to outline our guidance for the new year.

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Q4PG 2024

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