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spk04: At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero from your telephone keypad. Please know this conference is being recorded. At this time, I'll now turn the conference over to Ian Weissman, Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy. Mr. Weissman, you may now begin.
spk13: Thank you, Operator, and welcome everyone to the Park Hotels and Resorts First Quarter 2023 earnings call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of the comments made today are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed, and we are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. Actual future performance outcomes and results may differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. Note that all comparisons to prior year periods are on a comparable basis as defined in our earnings release. Please refer to the documents filed by PARCC with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q which identify important risk factors and could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements. In today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information, such as FFO and adjusted EBITDA. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure in this morning's earnings release, as well as in our 8-K file with the SEC, and the supplemental financial information available on our website at pkhotelsandresorts.com. This morning, Tom Baltimore, our chairman and chief executive officer, will provide a review of PARCC's first quarter performance and capital allocation initiatives, as well as an update on our full year 2023 guidance. Sean DeLorto, our chief financial officer, will provide additional color on first quarter results, an update on our balance sheet and liquidity, and further details on guidance. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Tom.
spk10: Thank you, Ian, and welcome everyone. I am pleased to report another very successful quarter where we delivered impressive top line results and significant margin expansion as we continue to execute against our strategic priorities and benefit from a strong recovery taking shape across our portfolio. We remain optimistic about our outlook and our ability to continue to deliver sector-leading results while creating value through our prudent capital allocation, including continued debt reduction, stock buybacks, and ROI investments. Turning to operations, first quarter results exceeded expectations driven in large part by ongoing improvements at our urban hotels and sustained strength at our resort markets. Q1 comparable rev par increased an impressive 37% year over year with occupancy up 1400 basis points to 65% for the quarter and average rate higher by nearly 7% over the same period last year. While all demand segments witnessed year-over-year gains, we were particularly impressed with group trends, with revenue up 74% year-over-year to $124 million, recovering to 83% of 2019 levels. Healthy group performance, particularly banquets and catering, coupled with the ongoing benefits from the aggressive cost-cutting measures we implemented during the pandemic, helped to drive exceptional margin gains during the quarter with hotel adjusted EBITDA margin improving approximately 550 basis points year over year to 24.2% or approximately 115 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance. An impressive accomplishment in the face of increased cost pressures. Overall, food and beverage revenues exceeded our expectations by over $15 million during the quarter, driven in large part by banquets and catering with notable strength in New Orleans, Orlando, and San Francisco. The acceleration in group demand is expected to be a primary driver of growth for PARCC in 2023, as group ADR is expected to exceed 2019 by 4%. Q1 group revenues exceeded our forecast by 15%, or approximately $16 million during the quarter, And we continue to see strong short-term group bookings, with the portfolio picking up approximately 300,000 room nights for 2023 during the quarter, accounting for $66 million of incremental revenues, with gains primarily concentrated in San Francisco, New York, and Orlando. In addition, group revenue pace for 2023 increased by 410 basis points during the quarter, to 82% of pre-pandemic levels and 90% excluding San Francisco. As we look out to 2024, we are encouraged by the momentum in some of our larger group markets with 2024 portfolio-wide group revenue pace as of March 31st, 2023, up 9% compared to the same time last year, driven by strong convention and city-wide activity expected for Chicago and New Orleans, and healthy in-house group booking activity, including at the Bonnet Creek Complex in Orlando, where we expect to see significant benefit from the expansion of the meeting space platforms at both the Signia and Waldorf Astoria, with 2024 group revenue pace currently up 47% versus 2023 at the complex. Turning to our markets, as we anticipated, the rebound at our urban hotels was very robust, with Q1 RevPar increasing 81% year-over-year, while RevPar at our resort hotels increased 13% compared to the first quarter of 2022. In Hawaii, performance remains very strong, with Q1 RevPar up 26% over 2022. RevPar at our Hilton Hawaiian Village Hotel was up 32% to 2022, evenly split between occupancy and ADR gains and driven by continued strength and transient demand, despite travel from Japan being down 93% to Q1 2019 at the hotel. The hotel also saw strong food and beverage revenues from both outlets and group catering, up approximately $10 million, or 78%. 2022 and well-managed cost controls that resulted in an impressive hotel adjusted EBITDA margin of 39.8% or 440 basis points above 2022 and 100 basis points above 2019. Our Hilton Waikoloa Hotel witnessed a 5% year-over-year increase in rev bar despite challenging comparisons to near buyout conditions during Q1 of 2022. Effective cost controls and modified outlet strategy at the hotel resulted in a 39.3% hotel adjusted EBITDA margin or 150 basis points above 2022 and an incredible 840 basis points above 2019 with the decision to shrink the overall size of the hotel in 2019 materially improving operating efficiencies. Looking ahead, we expect our two hotels in Hawaii to deliver mid-single-digit rep part gains over the balance of the year, and demand is expected to be driven mostly from U.S.-based travelers, as international demand is still 60% below 2019 levels for our two hotels. However, we expect to see increased inbound activity from Japan toward the second half of the year, which should provide a strong tailwind to performance over the next few years. Turning to our urban markets, we were particularly encouraged by better than expected group performance in San Francisco, with Q1 convention room nights up over 200% to over 140,000 room nights versus the same period last year. In addition, a healthy showing during the J.P. Morgan Conference helped to drive meaningful rate increases across the city, Group revenues for our four San Francisco hotels were up over 530% to last year with group rate exceeding 2019 by 15%. Q1 RevPar averaged $142 with ADR just 8% shy of 2019 levels as we witnessed solid rate gains during the quarter. Significantly, all four hotels generated positive EBITDA during the quarter, a first since the start of the pandemic. Looking out over the balance of the year, convention room nights in San Francisco are expected to reach 675,000, or an increase of 78% year over year, with over 60% of the room nights booked for the second half of this year. In our other urban markets, Washington DC delivered Over 80% RevPAR growth year-over-year, driven by stronger-than-expected performance from government travel. Our Chicago and Boston markets showed approximately 50% and 42% year-over-year RevPAR growth, respectively, while RevPAR at our Hilton New Orleans Riverside improved by 37% year-over-year, driven by double-digit growth in all segments, particularly among group, which was up 49% to last year. We were especially pleased to see the return of large medical events to New Orleans during Q1, a sign of the continued momentum in group recovery across our portfolio. Finally, New York City continues to show remarkable progress, benefiting from all three demand segments, with RevPAR increasing 113% year over year, or just 5% below 2019 levels. Driven by strong rate growth, up over 4% year over year, and a 35 percentage point increase in occupancy, the 69% for the quarter. We saw another strong group quarter in New York with group revenues during the first quarter surpassing 2019 levels by approximately $640,000. Our group booking strength continued with $30 million of business booked during the quarter, including an incremental $8 million for 2023. We expect 2023 hotel adjusted EBITDA from New York to surpass 2019 levels. As we look out over the balance of the year, we recognize that the macro backdrop remains uncertain. However, at this point, we have not witnessed any notable impact on our business. We remain constructive on hotel fundamentals and anticipate demand trends to remain healthy, especially across our major U.S. cities as an expected pickup in convention room nights should support improving group trends while anticipated ongoing leisure strength, especially in Hawaii, should continue to drive out performance. Regardless of the macro backdrop, PARCC remains well positioned to handle potential fluctuations in the economy with approximately $1.8 billion of liquidity available, and we remain laser focused on prudent capital allocation initiatives which we are confident will create long-term value for shareholders. And despite the more challenged credit markets, we expect to target 200 million to 300 million of non-core asset sales this year, utilizing excess liquidity to further reduce leverage and reinvest back in our portfolio through value-enhancing ROI projects, while opportunistically taking advantage of the relative disconnect between public and private market pricing through leverage-neutral stock buybacks. During the quarter, we used cash proceeds from the sale of the Hilton Miami Airport Hotel and cash on hand to fully repay the $50 million balance on our revolver and repurchase 8.8 million shares at a nearly 10% implied cap rate and a material discount to consensus net asset value. We plan to invest over $300 million back into our portfolio this year, including the final phase of the Tapa Tower Rooms renovation at our Hilton Hawaiian Village Hotel. The full-scale renovation, rebrand and resiliency upgrade of our Casa Marina Resort in Key West, and the transformative renovation and meeting space expansion at our Orlando Bonnet Creek Complex. Turning to guidance. Given our better-than-expected results during the first quarter, we are increasing our full-year 2023 guidance range and remain on track to deliver sector-leading REVPAR and earnings growth this year. Specifically, we are increasing our adjusted EBITDA forecast by just over 2% or $14 million at the midpoint to a new range of $624 million to $704 million, while our adjusted FFO guidance increases by approximately 9% or 15 cents per share at the midpoint to a new range of $1.76 to $2.12 per share, representing year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth of 10% and AFFO per share growth of 26%. I want to reemphasize, that our team remains laser focused on executing our internal growth strategies and capital allocation priorities, which we are confident will create long-term shareholder value and position the company for long-term success. With that, I will turn the call over to Sean.
spk12: Thanks, Tom. Overall, we were very pleased with our first quarter performance. As Tom noted, Q1 rep part came in at approximately $159. With 65% occupancy, and strong ADR growth of 7% year-over-year to $244, or 8% above 2019 levels. Hotel revenue was $623 million during the quarter, while hotel adjusted EBITDA was $151 million, resulting in hotel adjusted EBITDA margin of over 24%, or 550 basis points above the same period in 2022. Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $146 million, and adjusted FFO per share was 42 cents, or 25% above the midpoint range of the guidance we set last quarter. Turning to the balance sheet, our current liquidity is approximately $1.8 billion, while net debt is currently $3.9 billion, down approximately $600 million since Q1 2021 when net debt peaked at approximately $4.5 billion. Overall, our balance sheet remains in excellent shape with ample liquidity to execute our strategic priorities regardless of potential shifts in the macro backdrop. In terms of deleveraging, during the second quarter, we expect to repay the $75 million loan secured by the W Chicago City Center. With respect to our $725 million San Francisco CMBS loan maturing in November, we continue to evaluate our options, which includes a potential extension of the current loan. And we remain confident we will have a resolution by early summer. Turning to guidance, our RADPAR forecast for the year remains unchanged at $167 to $179 for a year-over-year increase of 10% at the midpoint, while our hotel adjusted EBITDA margin forecast has increased versus prior guidance by 10 basis points to a new range of 26.8% to 27.4%, a roughly 125 basis point improvement at the midpoint over the prior year. Better than expected margin gains were driven by solid group contribution as group demand continues to build, a trend we anticipate continuing throughout the balance of the year, helping to offset increasing costs for property insurance and utilities. While we are moving away from providing quarterly guidance, now that we have lapped the impact of last year's Omicron surge, we wanted to provide a bit more color on second quarter expectations. Despite facing difficult year-over-year comparisons, we expect our portfolio to continue to narrow the gap to 2019, with Q2 red bar forecast to be up year-over-year within a range of 7% to 11%, driven in large part by our portfolio of urban hotels led by Chicago, New Orleans, San Francisco, and New York City. Note, however, that Q2 margins are likely to soften relative to last year's peak performance, which was driven by outsized cancellation income during Q2 2022 that exceeded $9.6 million, or roughly $6 million above historical levels, and disruption this quarter from the comprehensive renovation of our Casa Marina Resort in Key West, with operations expected to be suspended from mid-May through most of Q4. Overall, the negative impact on earnings from Casa Marina renovation is forecast to be approximately $14 million for the full year, with a roughly 130 basis point drag on REVPAR growth and a more than 30 basis point drag on hotel adjusted EBITDA margin during the second quarter, and negatively impacting full-year REVPAR growth by a forecasted 110 basis points and hotel adjusted EBITDA margin by 30 basis points. As a reminder, the renovation disruption at CASA is already factored into our full-year guidance. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open the line for Q&A. To address each of your questions, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Operator, may we have the first question, please?
spk04: Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star 1 from your telephone keypad and a confirmation tone to indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants that are using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. So that we may address questions for as many participants as possible, we ask you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Thank you. And our first question comes from the line of Smedes Rose with Citi. Please proceed with your questions.
spk18: Hi. Thank you. Good morning, Smedes. I wanted to ask Tom if you could talk a little bit more about kind of just what you're seeing in San Francisco through the balance of the year and maybe just any visibility over the next couple of years. And, you know, I don't know if you'd be willing to or not, but is there any way you could just kind of ballpark kind of general ranges of EBITDA that you think those properties can generate, you know, kind of this year and where you might, where you'd be happy to see it to move to next year?
spk10: Yeah, it's a great question, Smeech. I mean, obviously there's a lot to unpack there. I think you know, and I think I've shared with listeners before, I mean, I've spent a considerable amount of time out there. I find myself out every four to six weeks approximately meeting with city officials, SF Travel, other business leaders, operators, and obviously with us certainly having a significant presence there, about 15% of sort of pre-pandemic EBITDA, it's important that I'm out there. I'd make the overall observation, we're not expecting San Francisco to be a huge contributor. I would say in the $20 to $25 million range across the guidance that both Sean and I outlined. So, I'd make that a comment. So, when you think about this year in particular, with about 675,000 citywide Romanites, which is, again, significant, but certainly below the all-time high in the 2019 level, although if you look historically, I think they ran about 800 to 850,000 approximately. So, certainly 675,000 is solid performance. About 60 percent of that is backloaded to the second half of this year. So, we are cautiously optimistic. Obviously, the first quarter was very strong, up 200 percent and up 140,000 room nights. So, it got off to a good start. It is still a challenging environment. When you think about San Francisco, we have no doubt in our view that certainly San Francisco comes back. It's not a matter of if but when. I would say given some of the recent reports, you know, that probably is being extended a little and perhaps elongated a little. SF Travel is going through a change in leadership. Obviously, the booking pace that they recently communicated was slightly down from expectations to around 500 to 550,000 over the next few years. You know, the narrative has certainly still gotten away from them a little. I will tell you that street conditions are better. The mayor's initiative, the 47 initiatives and nine strategies I think are encouraging. The AI spend is about six times higher in San Francisco than in any other market in the country. Obviously, the fifth largest economy. So the fundamental benefits, I think, of San Francisco are certainly sound. You have, obviously, rising office vacancy rates, which are certainly alarming and certainly something that we're watching carefully. And we have, obviously, our maturity at the end of the year, which obviously we are addressing in short order. And as Sean said in his prepared remarks, we certainly plan to have that resolved by early summer. So as we sort of look out, obviously, first quarter was up, you know, 183%. We certainly don't expect that to continue at that sort of clip. As we think about, you know, the second quarter, we would expect 15 to 20% up in REVPAR over 2022, and that's largely the two-pack, the 3,000-room complex as we sort of look out. But cautiously optimistic as we look out, but we are also not naive. We understand the complexity of it, and we certainly believe that San Francisco is going to take time, and it's going to be a few years before it certainly fully recovers.
spk18: Okay, thanks. That's helpful. I just wanted to ask you, too, you mentioned targeting $200 to $300 million of non-core asset sales. Could you maybe just speak to kind of what you're seeing on valuations on that side, kind of what you've seen in cap rates or EBITDA multiples or however you want to frame it?
spk10: Yeah, I'd make the observation. Obviously, we sold seven assets last year for north of $300 million. Obviously, we completed the Miami sale earlier this year. I think even in the worst of times, Smedes, as you know, even in the middle of the pandemic, we sold two marquee assets in San Francisco, one La Meridian for north of $630,000 a key, and obviously the autograph there, the Adagio for almost $500,000 a key. So, look, there's still plenty of capital, owner-operators, private equity. Obviously, the debt markets are constrained. I would say that asset sales, $100 million or less, I think are easier to get done. You know, clearly pricing is certainly depending on where you price the debt. And I think around 8% is probably where a lot of the debt is getting priced and perhaps some even higher. You know, we're still confident that we'll be able to achieve the objectives that we've outlined. I think we've met or exceed all of the non-core asset sales that we've outlined over the years. I think we're now up to 39 assets and about $2.1 billion in recycling non-core assets. And that's, of course, including 14 international assets and, you know, many assets that had lots of complications and lots of hair. So the team is very skilled, very experienced, and we're confident that we'll get at least $200 million in asset sales done this year, and certainly if not higher. Thank you. Appreciate it. Thank you.
spk04: Our next question comes from the line of Dwayne Fenningworth with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
spk08: Hey, thank you. Good morning.
spk04: Good morning.
spk08: Good morning. Just on San Francisco, obviously a hotly debated market, but one, as you're showing, that is improving. For the investors that are evaluating whether or not you should give the keys back on some of those assets, and you know better than we do, there's a lot of strong opinions on that issue. How do you think about giving the keys back as one of your options, and what are the positives and negatives of taking that approach as you see them?
spk10: Thank you for the question. First, I would I want to say we are under a confidentiality agreement. We are in discussions with the servicer. All options are being explored, and I emphasize all options are being explored, and we expect to have this resolved by the summer. Look, these are never cut and dry, so if hypothetically to give back the keys there's a forgiveness of debt income that we would have we're able to shield certainly most of that but not all of that it would result in a potential dividend payout of of a hundred and fifty to two hundred million dollars approximately in theory it obviously reduces our leverage but it also takes away a growth story and some optionality in San Francisco, certainly depending on what you believe in its timeline. And as I said earlier, based on this AI revolution that I think we all are reading and hearing about, I mean, it is anchored in San Francisco and the spend, again, being six times that level. San Francisco historically is a high beta market So it goes through these periods of sort of boom and bust. Clearly a tougher period now, but we are seeing it certainly beginning to recover. I think that recovery is going to be a little more elongated, but we certainly believe that we are going to carefully examine the options and make no mistake, we are going to do what's in the best interest of shareholders and what creates the most value.
spk08: Thank you. Thank you for those detailed thoughts. And then just for my follow-up on New York, I guess it caught my attention that you felt like New York could be above 2019 on EBITDA. Can you talk about the drivers of that? Which segments are really leading that? And maybe how sustainable you think that is? Are there maybe changes in the operating model or things of that sort? Thank you.
spk10: Yeah, it's another great question. One of the things I'm really glad you asked the question of, you know, within the last year or two, we talked a lot about we were retooling and we used the pandemic to really reimagine the operating model. I'm not sure a lot of investors and a lot of analysts really believed us, but I say confidently that I could not be more prouder of the team, particularly our asset management team and Sean and his leadership and the men and women that have worked so hard. And, you know, reminding listeners, we took out 1,200 FTEs. That's about 55% management and 45% hourly. We removed redundancies, sales and marketing. And that was 85 million and about 300 basis points. And, you know, I remind people that we were in this challenging environment, margins up north of 500 basis points. I mean, that's not That's not by luck, that's by hard work and discipline and really grinding in and looking, using the crisis as a way to have a better operations. We reported last quarter that labor costs were 16% lower in 2022 than they were in 2019. In this quarter, we took out, there were 200 fewer management FTEs than Q1 2019. The team is working really hard, and I think it's showing, and it's showing by the results that we certainly are outlining today. You know, New York is one where you think back to the middle of the pandemic, and many naysayers out there that New York would never come back, and it would be 27 or 28 or some sort of silly logic like that that we heard from some. Again, we were up 113% in 2020. in REVPAR this quarter, and as we stated, we fully expect that we will exceed 2019 levels in EBITDA. The city is activated. People are going back to the office. It's only, it's accelerating, and so we are, you're seeing the city back, and no doubt we feel very good about the outlook in New York, and we feel very good about our positioning. There are only really three large boxes that can take significant group business. And we certainly believe we have the best meeting footprint there and that we're well positioned and an excellent leadership team there on site. So excited about New York and very encouraged. And again, we expect we'll be up double-digit repart growth there in the second quarter. So feel very good about New York where we are right now.
spk05: Thanks, Tom.
spk10: Thank you.
spk04: Our next question is from the line of Floris Van Dykem with Compass Point. Please proceed with your question.
spk06: Thanks for taking my question, guys. Thanks, Floris. Just, hey, a quick follow-up here, and I don't want to belabor New York a little bit too much, but I think New York had, you know, hotel EBITDA that was negative in the first quarter of $3 million, and I think full year last year was, or sorry, in 19 was $47 million. So, That implies a pretty steep ramp-up, which sort of is in line with your comments, but it's maybe a little bit steeper than people were thinking. Is that the right way to think about it?
spk10: Yes. I mean, part of it, keep in mind, it's our softest quarter in New York, and, you know, occupancy about 69%, and our rev part only like $170 plus or minus, and, you know, EBITDA was $3.4 million negative. So that does imply that The balance of the year will be certainly above $50 million. And as we look out today, that's a number that we're comfortable with. And I think, as I said, we're also looking at, you know, REVPAR, that's pretty significant. So I said double digits, but substantially more than that as we look out to just Q2 as an example of that. And we've also got, you know, group room nights on the books. About one hundred eighty thousand and that's all you know when you can anchor a big hotel like that. With group and then layer in your transient. Really helps the overall profitability. So feel feel good about that as we look out today. You know eighty percent of the demand tends to really be on the domestic front. But the international piece is growing and. You know we historically about sixteen to seventeen percent which is which is helpful and as you see. Clearly, that travel coming certainly out of Europe is very helpful. Asia is not back yet, but we feel very good about the pace in New York at this point.
spk06: Thanks, Tom. And maybe my follow-up, I'm thinking, obviously, you bought back 8.8 million shares in the first quarter. You did sell a hotel. How should we think about – The percentage, if you're looking to sell another $200 million before the end of the year, which is what you sort of indicated, should people expect about half of that to be used for share buybacks and half for debt reductions? Or how do you weigh those two? And obviously, you have some redevelopment capital that you probably need to spend as well.
spk12: Hey, Flores, this is Sean. I mean, I think if you think about it, you know, we want to certainly do it on a leverage neutral basis. So you can kind of, I think, factor it in that way as we think about it going forward. And in terms of, you know, I think certainly as you talk, as you mentioned with the ROIs, we'll certainly have a focus on that as well. So while there'll still be some buybacks in play, I think you could probably see us more leaning towards redeployment within the portfolio or simply leveraging. And just a quick note back on New York, just so you have it, it lost $2 million in Q1 of 2019. So as Tom mentioned, it's a soft quarter, so it's nothing unusual to look at this year.
spk05: Thanks, guys. That's it for me.
spk04: Our next questions are from the line of Danny Assad with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.
spk15: Hi. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess, Tommy, you raised the full year by the amount that you beat in the first quarter, but your comments are actually pretty encouraging here. I guess my question is, first of all, how is Q2 shaping up compared to where you thought it was going to be 60 to 90 days ago? Is there some macro or any kind of conservatism that we're baking into the balance of the year? just trying to kind of square how positive your comments are to kind of the underwriting for the year.
spk10: Well, one of Dan's great questions. I want to also preface my comments, but think back to the comments that Sean made. You've got some tough comps there and cancellations, and obviously second quarter was very strong last year. It has historically been our strongest quarter, so we're certainly optimistic. And as, again, the REVPAR that we gave in kind of that 7% to 11%, we're certainly very, very comfortable with that. Group pace looks good as we look out as well. But let's all not kid ourselves here. There's still a lot of uncertainty. We've got a lot of invariables here. As the Fed getting at the peak of the tightening cycle, there's still concerns about a potential credit crunch. None of this is a surprise to you or any of the listeners. Consumer is still strong with about $1.1 trillion in savings, the savings rate, about 6.2%, obviously low unemployment. So it doesn't look and feel like a recession, but clearly depending on the signals and direction of the Fed here, and then given obviously the this tightening credit on the banking side. You know, there's certainly a bit of conservatism in there, but there are some tougher comps in there. So we feel good. We are comfortable with the guidance and obviously that pull forward. And we're very comfortable about the park store. The team has worked incredibly hard. No secret, we were probably dealt one of the more difficult hands in the pandemic and coming out of it. But I would also say think about the moves that we made. No dilutive equity raised. We did three bond deals and pushed out maturities. We've recycled capital. People forget we were self-operating a bunch of hotels. We had laundry facilities, joint ventures, international hotels. I mean, all of that, a large part of that has been cleaned up. And so we are... And our top 27 assets account for about 90% of the value of the company. So we are laser focused on continuing to reshape. And we are optimistic about Q2 as we look out. And, you know, group is a big part of that. Leisure is another part that feels really strong. People forget just we're still producing eye-popping results in Hawaii that we expect will only get stronger, and we still don't have the Japanese traveler back. So that, again, provides another tailwind. So a few headwinds out there, but there are a number of tailwinds also that really benefit. The park story, I think, very different than many of our peers. And again, up 500 basis points in margins. That doesn't happen without a lot of hard work by the team.
spk15: Super helpful, Tom. Thank you. And then my follow-up question is a little bit on group. Just can you comment a little bit more on that group strength? What's driving that in terms of different segments of group, whether it's association, SMURF, and so on? And maybe at the same time, remind us of the profitability of those different segments that we have in the portfolio.
spk12: Hey, Danny. This is Sean. I'll take that one. I think there's probably a few key takeaways here with group. Clearly, it's a great story. It's helped park outperform in Q1 versus as we kind of look at our performance in our markets relative to the market performance. We were certainly up and beating that and taking share in just about every market. So with total rev par up 40% versus almost 37% on room rev par, clearly there's an out-of-room spend here component that's driven by group. So I think Some of the themes here, it certainly remains near term, 60 days out, but it's elongating. We had almost 60% of the room nights booked in March, were for March or Q2. So again, still somewhat near term, but we also booked 77,000 room nights for 2024. And that's after seeing about 18,000 room nights in each of January and February. So I think meeting planners are starting to trust the ability to book out further, probably see the need to book out further. I think they're generally pretty bullish on having events in person, so you're starting to see that momentum right now. It's a mixed shift right now within group, to your point about some of the sub-segments. We're seeing more out of the corporate group as well as the convention really picking up. I think from an in-house corporate group, we expect that to recover pretty quickly throughout the year, seeing it going down from about 20% down in revenue. to 19 in the first quarter to basically being flat to slightly up by Q4. Convention's improving almost 90% of 2019 levels. Quarter to quarter, it's going to be a little bit mixed bag based on the calendars. But again, those two are the bigger components traditionally of this portfolio and certainly the better revenue producers for us. So seeing those coming back and ultimately taking share more of the mix is certainly kind of baked into how we think about the year going forward. I think finally, one last thing to do, one last takeaway is there's a tailwind here still where relative surveys we've seen recently, people still talk about 30% of the canceled COVID events still need to be rebooked. So we think certainly that's a tailwind for our portfolio going into, certainly in the next year as people start to try to rebook those events. Awesome.
spk15: Thank you very much for that.
spk04: Our next question is from the line of Anthony Powell with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
spk01: Hi, good morning. Good morning, Anthony. Good morning, Tom. Question on business transit. There's been a lot of very positive data points on group. Just maybe some detail on how BT trended in the quarter and what you're assuming for the back half of this year in terms of recovery there.
spk12: Yeah, I think, Sean, again, I mean, I think, you know, BT as a whole is tracking well, and I would say certainly we would say it's recovered. It was down overall in revenue about 10% to 19 levels, but we see that improving and actually being up high single digits by the back part of the year, maybe even double digits. You know, clearly we get focused on the corporate negotiated a lot where you see, you know, within financial services or tech, professional services, I mean, that subsegment has certainly been off. It's down 40% to 19 in Q1. We do see that improving through the year, getting to probably 20% down by the back half. But you've got RAC rate, you've got government, and you've got local negotiated, all kind of helping to kind of pick up the slack a little bit. I mean, from a RAC standpoint, I think you've probably heard in other commentary, certainly from Hilton, that you're going after more of the smaller businesses. And what we're seeing there is That usually comes through in more local as well as RAC. And so RAC's about 30% above corporate negotiated on rate on average. And while local and government are below on rate, about 25%, I would say the vast majority of the pickup on the mix is on the RAC side. So all in all, we think business transient as an overall segment is recovering through this year and getting back to 19 levels easily by certainly midpoint this year or the back half. It's just, again, a lot of attention on the corporate negotiated makes it feel like business transit is down, but it's really not.
spk01: Got it. Okay. And maybe one more. I saw that you bought some land in Hawaii next to Hawaiian Mill. I just talked about doing a tower there. Could you maybe update us on the scope of that project, timing, the opportunity there? That would be great.
spk10: Yeah. Anthony, as we've said, it would be the opportunity to add a sixth tower there. We own the land. Which we're pretty excited about we're working through the entitlement process it's probably another twelve to eighteen month process. Plus or minus and. Now we're looking at. Five hundred keys plus or minus. That possibly could be added in. As you know that is. A world class resort we've got nearly twenty nine hundred. Rooms five towers there's also an additional thousand units of timeshare which we don't own. And you look at the extraordinary success that we had last year, again, not having the Japanese traveler, and they're down 95%. We did historically about 150 weddings there a year. I think we did less than five last year. And the Japanese traveler, who typically account for about 20% of our business, we expect we'll start to see more visitation in the second half of the year. but we are tracking for probably another all-time high in EBITDA. So I feel very good about what's happening there, not only there, but also on the Big Island. So we think a future investment there is going to be extraordinarily accretive. We also, again, as we are more profitable today in Hilton Waikoloa as a 600-room hotel than we were as a 1,200-room hotel, And in addition to that, we have uncovered that we have the rights for an additional 200 keys that we can add there. So the story in Hawaii for FARC only gets better and only gets stronger as we look out.
spk04: All right. Thank you. All right. Our next question is from the line of Ari Klein with BMO Capital Markets.
spk14: Please proceed with your question. Thanks, and good morning. Maybe as it relates to guidance, it seems to imply about 2% to 3% REBPAR growth in the second half of the year. How would that compare to your expectations on the expense side? And maybe what are the more significant pressures on the expense side from a broader perspective?
spk12: Yeah, I think, on the expense side, we see expenses As we talked about Q2 being a little bit higher than revenue, clearly we see a little bit of margin year-over-year decline. But once we get into the back half of the year, we see that be more balanced between revenue and expense growth with slight edge to revenues. We should expect to see some margin improvement year-over-year. And so I think we feel pretty good about kind of where we are. I mean, certainly the expense size, we think about, You know, performance in Q1 on the cost side, you know, as Tom alluded to, with the $85 million of savings, you feel that's intact. I mean, wages, you know, probably been tracking 4% to 5% up year over year for the last few years. I think overall payroll is up 20% since 19, yet, you know, on a nominal sense, we're 3% down to 19 in Q1. From a headcount standpoint, our management FTE positions are down 14% and hourly are down 19% in Q1. relative to 19. That's versus the 8.5% reduction we've talked about to folks in terms of that $85 million of savings. So we feel good about where that's tracking, and I think we have that in pretty good control. I think where you see some of the pressures as you go in the back half of the year, I think remain insurance and utility costs. Utilities are up 22% since 19, 40% on a preoccupied room basis. It's certainly going to impact some of that savings we've talked about. Insurance is up almost 40% since 19 or likely to be based on expected renewal rates. You know, still need to get through that process, but certainly it's going to impact everybody just with all the losses and some of the cost of capital constraints that the carriers have. So we expect to see some increases there that will be pressuring margins some. But I think when you put it all together, though, and you can look at those two line items, those things can also come down over time, too. We've certainly seen soft periods on insurance. as well as utility costs can soften as well. So that could ultimately be something where we benefit in the future. And we have ultimately lower exposure on the insurance side than many, I think, because we haven't had the losses. While we're certainly cat-exposed, I think we certainly expect to fare better than most in that just because we haven't had any losses in the last few years.
spk14: Thanks. And then, Tom, maybe just as you think about the San Francisco market and maybe to the extent you're positioning for recovery, How much capital do you think is required to invest in the assets you have in that market to remain competitive over the next couple of years?
spk10: First would be the Park 55. We've completed the model rooms. We were prepared to complete renovation. That's about 1,024 units in that hotel. So that's about $90 million. But probably over a five-year stretch, it's probably approaching $200 million in total. We've renovated the ballroom, the public space in San Francisco Hilton. But as you look out over a five-year period, it's probably in the $200 million range, plus or minus. Again, that's 3,000 rooms at those two properties.
spk05: Appreciate that. Thanks.
spk04: Our next question is from the line of Dori Keston with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your questions.
spk17: Thanks. Good morning. Good morning, Dori. Hey, can you talk about the renovation plan? I think it's for the Rainbow Tower in Hawaii for next year, if you have expected costs yet and what renovation disruptions may be and then the eventual upsides you expect.
spk10: Yeah, we're just in the process of planning that, Dori. We have We're going to finish phase three of the Tapper Tower this year. Really excited about the work being done there. Obviously, Rainbow Tower will be next in the queue. And obviously, when you're running, as you know, high 80s to mid-90s occupancy, it's a bit of a high wire act as we manage these renovations. But Carl Mayfield and our design and construction team are really best in class. And as you saw, obviously, as we talk about the castle that we're going to take offline and the The very modest disruption we're going to have there, these things are really well planned out and well thought out. And I would say the Rainbow Tower will be the same. We will design. We'll get a few model rooms done. We'll organize. We'll find the softest periods we can to complete them with minimal disruption on the operations. But that will be next in queue, and that's probably 24, 25. But don't have any disruption data for you today. We'll follow up as that information becomes more available.
spk17: Okay. And you mentioned group revenue pace for 24 was up 9% year over year. I don't think I caught where, I guess, in the context of 2019 it is.
spk05: I'm sorry, Dora, was that last part? Yeah, we missed a couple of that.
spk17: Oh, I think I didn't catch where it was in the context of 2019.
spk05: Okay.
spk12: Oh, so yeah, 23 pace by ultimately we think is around, ends up like 90% or so. I guess that's ex-San Francisco. It's like mid-low 80s. So it's going to be upwards of kind of upper 80s based on 19.
spk17: Sorry, that's 23 or 24?
spk12: This is 24. I was giving a little 23 background, but then giving it to 24.
spk10: Dori, it's low 80s pace. The group pays for 24, as Sean said. Again, at San Francisco, it's 90.2%. Okay, great.
spk17: Thank you.
spk05: Thank you.
spk04: Our next question is from the line of Chris Maranco with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
spk03: Hey, good morning, guys. Morning, Chris. Morning. Tom, so there's obviously a lot of moving parts involved. Out in San Francisco, I think there's a lot of hotels for sale, whether publicly or not. And I'm not including any of your stuff in that. But the question is, what do you think happens? There's talk of governments buying those for alternative use or others. How does that impact? Do you think there's any chance we see some surprising prints on sale, high or low, and How does that really impact what you guys want to do with the refi and your thoughts on the market longer term in terms of some supply potentially coming out? Thanks.
spk10: Yeah, it's a great question, Chris. Look, we have studied San Francisco. We've looked at the cycles, and there are a few, I think, big, important takeaways. It's the most supply-constrained market. probably second only to a Key West. You've only got 32,000 keys versus New York at 125,000 to 150,000. It is a high beta market, as we all know. And if you look from that sort of 2008 through 2019, probably first or second best market, lodging market. No doubt it is a more challenged environment today. And it really comes down to making sure that we are carefully underwriting and understanding the demand flow. Obviously, the recent print from SF Travel was not particularly helpful. Obviously, you're going to have a leadership change there. And obviously, the sooner that selection committee can get at that work, the better. But we have no doubt that San Francisco recovers for the reasons we talked about. When you think about venture capital, you think about education, the natural beauty. You look at the AI spend. Again, you've got six times the spend, and this revolution is going to be anchored there. Having said that, we're not Pollyannish about this. It's going to be an elongated recovery. Again, we are under a confidentiality agreement. We are in discussions, and we will carefully evaluate all options and arrive at the option that creates the most value for shareholders. You know, the office vacancy rate rising, again, is something that you need to carefully review and understand. The office sector is clearly going to continue to take it on the chin there, but these periods of dislocation also create opportunities. We don't see, I think it would be difficult for a lot of office to hotel conversions, so we don't see that really as a risk. It really is about the basic blocking and tackling. The Moscone Center has talked about lowering rates. We think that's a good idea. We think a national marketing campaign is another good idea that we've communicated. The ambassador program has been incredibly well received. The street conditions are improving. They're far better than I think has been reported, but the city's got to do a better job certainly communicating that to the broader public. And again, the first quarter was a very strong quarter and we were profitable. But we also recognize that, you know, it's still 30 to 40 percent below 19 levels and it's certainly lagging the other markets. So we're factoring all that in in those discussions. And we're going to be very thoughtful and very disciplined about it and confident we're going to arrive at the right outcome. But remember. San Francisco is a very small contributor to PARC this year in the guidance and the overall EBITDA that we've outlined. So the story is intact. It's not driven by San Francisco. San Francisco actually is, if we get to an acceptable resolution, is really the optionality is some additional upside. But it is not a huge drag on our on our guidance this year because we see a small contribution. The contributions are coming from other cities that really are accelerating and, again, led by what we're seeing in Hawaii, which just continues to accelerate.
spk03: Yeah, thanks, Tom. Appreciate all the color there. Just as a quick follow-up, in Hawaii and some of the expansion opportunities you have, you covered a few of them. I know planning is not done and it's a little far out, but Is there a way you would look to do that in a more capital light manner, given how much construction costs have risen, or is there kind of an offset later down the road with more asset sales? Just thoughts on how to make that most, I guess, economical.
spk10: Yeah, it's a great point. We will, obviously we're not at that point today. You rest assured, as we demonstrated, we're not going to do any kind of dilutive equity raise and you know, recycling capital. The best use of that recycling capital is to pay down leverage and buy back stock on a leverage-neutral basis and reinvest back in our portfolio. We're investing $300 million, and, you know, we haven't talked about the Bonnet Creek Resort and what we're doing there, but it is going to be extraordinary when it is completed the latter part of this year. We cannot wait to show the expanded meeting space over water coupled with a completely renovated golf course plus the Waldorf ballroom, which is already, and then a complete rooms redo at both the Signia as well as the Waldorf Astoria there. So really excited about that as an example, and we'll be thoughtful as we think about how and when we capitalize all options. Again, we'll be on the table at that. Fortunately, that's a few years out and don't need to make that decision today. And, And hopefully and expect that we're in a more normalized times and, and candidly, the cost of capital is back to a more normalized environment as well.
spk03: Okay. Super helpful as always. Thanks, Tom.
spk10: Thank you. Have a great day.
spk04: The next questions come from the line of Patrick Schultz with Truist Securities. Please receive your questions.
spk05: Hey, good afternoon. Hey, Patrick.
spk07: Great. Great. Thank you. Tom, can you talk a little bit about the mix of what types of businesses gave you the group strength in the quarter? And as you look in your group booking crystal ball for the rest of the year and into next year, is that composition of who is strong, who is weak, is that changing at all? And when I say who is strong is weak, financial firms or marketing firms, et cetera? Thank you.
spk10: Yeah, I'll let Sean jump in on some of the, a little more granular, but let me just make a couple of macro comments. I mean, look, as you think about kind of remote work and hybrid work, what we hear from C-suite leaders, men and women, as I talk to in various forums, that need to bring people together is even greater. And so when you have a portfolio like ours that's so well distributed and also with a lot of meeting space, And we are well positioned to take advantage of that. You know we began the year the forecast of about two point one million room nights. I think we last quarter we were about one point four million in definites and we said we needed to make up you know about six hundred and sixty thousand for the year. Now you know at the end of the first quarter here we're at a definite of about one point seven two million. the need to only make up about 330,000 room nights. So we are very confident that we'll be able to meet our targets, if not exceed them. And also to the point that Sean made, you're seeing about 30% of companies, plus or minus, that still have pent-up demand in group. And New Orleans, seeing obviously the medical conferences come back, and that need to be together isn't going to go away. And as you think about just 23 of the markets, New York and Chicago, we've got 180,000 group room nights. New Orleans, 230,000. New York, again, 180,000. Bonnet Creek, and we're still under a transformational expansion, 170,000. Don't know why in Village, 100,000. And then, of course, the complex in San Francisco, north of 180,000. So just that backdrop, that's just a half dozen of our big group houses as well. So we don't see that at all slowing down. And we see that as a real competitive advantage for us. And the leisure continues. It moderated in a Key West, but we anticipated and we said that. And we expected that trees don't grow to the sky, but You know, we really see that groups got a tailwind as we sort of move forward.
spk12: Yeah, I just might add, you know, I wouldn't say there's any specific verticals that outperformed. I think everybody's kind of just finding their way back and getting into, you know, group settings. And so, you know, the in-house group and the company side, corporate side, you're seeing just across the portfolio. Again, a lot of it's still very much short-term, but you see people coming back, you know, whether it's trainings, or gathering for other things that they haven't done in the past. I think you've seen that come through. Conventions clearly are getting back underway. A lot of strength in Chicago, New Orleans, first half of this year, so the first quarter. San Francisco, J.B. Morgan Healthcare Conference, plus a couple others this quarter, helped that market as well in our portfolio. And then finally, group tour for the quarter, at least, certainly was stronger. As you think about things like in group other events like incentive travel, and it just takes It took a while for them to kind of get past the pandemic and start getting back on that cycle. So I think just a matter of, you know, that delay and that lag of some of these other kind of group subsegments absent, you know, Smurf, which clearly was one that was a driver during the pandemic. You've seen that kind of just level off, and it's been more of the corporate side and convention side really coming back.
spk05: Okay. Great color there. Thank you.
spk04: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of David Katz with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
spk09: Hi, everyone. Thanks for. Hi, how are you?
spk10: Good.
spk09: I wanted to just, you've covered a lot of details, so I just wanted to touch on the target of a couple hundred million of asset sales. And any call you can provide us with in terms of, you know, what the sort of net proceeds on that, you know, might be or what that might look like. And I think you may have said earlier, you know, obviously looking to improve leverage, you know, with those, just any sensor on that would help. Thank you.
spk10: Yeah, David, obviously, we both Sean and I, I think tried to address it earlier. Look, it's always been our history of continuing to recycle capital and in the north of 300 million last year, we've set the target of two to 300 million. We've obviously already put one print on the board with the Miami sale done earlier in the year. I would say that generally assets under $100 million would be easier to get done in this environment. There are no shortage of capital, whether it's owner-operators, family offices, private equity. The private equity real estate, they're sitting on nearly $400 billion of capital, and that's not even including the sovereigns. So that capital has got to be put to work. And we will be thoughtful. Tom Morey and our chief investment officer on the team, I think, have done an extraordinary job over the last several years. And we'll continue to look at non-core. Again, our top 27 assets really account for about 90% of the value, as we've said. And there's debt capital available. You've got to work a little harder and got to find those right buyers. Clearly a more challenged environment on the debt side right now as the debt markets have tightened. And I wouldn't say we're in a credit crunch, but you certainly have that risk as well. In terms of proceeds, we'll continue to be thoughtful. I mean, the highest and best use of From a capital allocation standpoint, if we continue to trade at 50%, 60% discount to NAV, you can expect that we will continue to buy back stock as we did in the first quarter. We'll do that on a leverage-neutral basis, and we'll continue to invest back in the portfolio. Those are really the best decisions that we can make as a management team at this point, and we'll continue to do that.
spk05: Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you.
spk04: Our next questions come from the line of Robin Farley with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
spk16: Great, thanks. I just wanted to circle back on the idea of what's going on with business transient. When I'm looking at your urban red part, and if we exclude San Francisco, which kind of has some city-specific issues, It looks like your urban rev par was down about 10% versus 2019, which is kind of a little bit or a bit worse than Q4 being down 2% versus 19. So I know you mentioned that business transient is improving, and maybe that's just in the markets outside of your urban portfolio. But can you give a little narrative around what's going on with the urban rev par? And this is excluding San Fran, this sort of sequentially thing. kind of worse looking, and is that just something you're seeing across the board? Thanks.
spk12: No, I would say it's relatively stable, Robin. I think, you know, clearly, I mean, obviously you're looking at it, you know, the seasonality element against 19 and its sequential decline, but I think even in this, right, you know, we sit here today still trying to recover, I think some of those weaker elements seasonal, you know, timeframes end up being a little bit more, you know, disproportionately weaker, if you can kind of, hopefully that makes sense. But I think you just kind of see a little bit more, you know, I think a little bit more underperformance in some of those weaker pockets, you know, from a seasonality standpoint. So, you know, when you look at the Q4 to Q1, I think it's generally, you know, in line. I think we certainly expect that it's more of an improvement as we get more through the year.
spk05: Okay. Thank you. Our next question comes in the line of Chris Darling with Green Street.
spk04: Please proceed with your questions.
spk11: Thanks. Good morning.
spk10: Good morning, Chris.
spk11: Tom, what's the latest thinking around a potential rebrand of the DoubleTree San Jose? And anything new you can share as it relates to timing or scope of that project?
spk10: Yeah, it clearly is in the queue and love the location, the quality of the real estate. We certainly think an uprand is... is the right move. We've got a couple of model rooms done. We continue to study, obviously, all of Northern California and figure out what the right sequencing is. But that one is probably more of a late 24, 25. That certainly is not what I would call in the top tier of our conversions at this time.
spk11: Okay, fair enough on that. And then switching gears, just curious if you could discuss some of the highlights from, I guess it's 12 hotels that you classify under the kind of other markets bucket. Looks like that group of properties might have drove some of the outperformance and maybe there was some seasonality there, but curious to understand if there's anything worth calling out.
spk12: I don't think anything specific to call out there. Just, you know, I think for the most part, those are kind of our, I would say non-core market areas. I mean, there's probably one that sits in there would be, I believe, the Cree Bay Hotel, which certainly has been an outperformer for us, and it's a little bit disproportionate contributor given its size relative to a lot of smaller assets we have in that bucket. But they have been generally that group has somewhat outperformed, which are not certainly in those CBD markets, just been general outperformers. They're not also ones that are in those compressed leisure markets that you've seen a little bit of moderation. So they're kind of in a sweet spot still.
spk11: Fair enough. Thank you for the time.
spk04: Thanks. Our next question is from the line of Bill Crow with Raven James. Please proceed with your questions.
spk02: Thanks. Thanks for sticking around. Hey, Bill. Good morning. Tom. what's going on with the Japanese traveler? Are they, are they going to other places? Or I, I think I had read months, months ago, they had basically decided to travel or to stay domestic. And I'm just wondering, you're optimistic about their recovery, but has there been somewhat of a permanent shift here in their travel?
spk10: I, I don't think so, Bill. I mean, remember you had the, the Japanese government relaxed the restrictions on October the 11th. Um, including elimination of a daily kind of arrival caps. Look, there's been a long history. If you think back over the last 30 years, that visitation has been pretty consistent, and even periods where the yen was pretty volatile. So I just think given the history, given the cultural tie-ins, we're not at all sensing that there's going to be any long-term dilution there. But there was another flight just added today by Hawaiian Airlines to a fourth destination. So we think the second half of the year starts to show improvement, but really excited as we look out to 24, 25, and beyond. And if you think about, again, the comment I made about weddings, a lot of those were Japanese weddings. If you think back to 150 of those a year, and I think there were a single digit last year. So very, very optimistic. Despite that, obviously you continue to see the air seats into Honolulu. I think we're up 21% in the first quarter over the last year, and I think about 3% below 2019 levels. So look, we would hope, and obviously given your vast experience, if you dig in and take a look, I mean, Our Hawaii story is just extraordinary in terms of the performance. We've retooled the operation at Hilton Wine Village. The work that we did, obviously, at Hilton Waikoloa, shrinking the hotel at 50% capacity, and we're more profitable. And as you look out, we fully expect we're going to be at least mid-single-digit rev par increase and probably, again, all-time high EBITDA. So it's really good blocking and tackling, but we are excited to welcome back the Japanese Traveler, and we certainly think that'll begin in earnest in the second half of the year begins, and certainly optimistic about 24, 25 as we look out. We see that as a real tailwind for us.
spk02: Yeah, no, I appreciate it. Sean, one for you. I think it was Dwayne that earlier asked a question about handing back the keys in San Francisco. I don't recall you mentioning, but what is the prospective tax hit on the gain? And is there any way to, either using the 1031 exchange or a special dividend, is there some way that you would be able to avoid the tax hit on that?
spk12: Yeah, sorry if we haven't made it more clear relative to, we wouldn't expect a tax hit per se, Bill. It's more just kind of what's going on. Yeah, the gain would just trigger more distribution and be more special dividend, which is what Tom described, $150 to $200 million.
spk10: Yeah, you've got to keep in mind, Bill, it's a very low tax basis. So with that, the forgiveness of debt, we end up with a significant gain. Given the NOLs, we can shield, but we still believe we end up with approximately a dividend requirement of about $150 to $200 million. Now, look, you... evaluate that in the context of the options. As we said, we're under a confidentiality agreement right now. We are reviewing and studying the situation carefully. We're going to do what's in shareholders' best interest. And as I said, all options are on the table, and they should be on the table.
spk02: Yeah. Okay. That's it for me. Thank you.
spk10: Okay. No, thank you. Okay.
spk04: Thank you. At this time, we've reached the end of our question and answer session, and I'll hand the call back to Tom Baltimore for closing remarks.
spk10: Thank you all. It was great to visit with you today and look forward to seeing you all at the upcoming conferences. Travel well and be safe.
spk04: This will conclude today's call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
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