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spk14: where snowfall came in well below historical averages, we determined that we needed to take more aggressive and permanent cost reduction measures to align our cost structure with current demand trends, which we call the 2024 Cost Savings Program. Sarah will discuss the details later, but in summary, we expect $8 to $10 million in annualized savings. Frankly, these are some of the hardest decisions we've had to make in our careers, but they were the right move for the long-term financial and operational health of the company. I'm so proud of our leadership teams for how they have responded in this situation. They acted swiftly and decisively. What's even more important is that while making these decisions, they never lost sight of our key long-term growth initiatives, ensuring that we stay focused on protecting and growing not only our market share, but our competitive advantages in the market. From a weather perspective, we have seen a mild El Nino pattern in the first quarter, which is not as strong as we hoped for. I am glad to say that weather conditions were stronger in January, with snowfall totals above average across the snow belt. In fact, we set a record for parts and accessories orders in the month of January, which is a good sign. In early February, we saw the first nor'easter in two years. Having said that, the back half of February has been pretty quiet. While the winter weather season isn't over yet, at this point, it seems likely we'll finish the season with below average snowfall totals. On a more positive note, while our dealer checks at the end of January confirmed inventory levels remain above the five-year average, they have begun to moderate, so they are starting to come down. I'm pleased to say that both dealer sentiment and financial health remain positive. Lastly, We are gearing up to launch some exciting new products at the NTA Work Truck Show in Indianapolis in a couple of weeks. More to come on that topic next quarter. So there is no doubt it's been a difficult year in the attachments group. But as always, we'll edit this environment stronger, knowing our team will be ready to drive profitable growth again when conditions allow. Let's turn to Work Truck Solutions. The solutions segment completed a strong finish to 2023, delivering on its goal of mid-single-digit EBITDA margins. Again, we want to thank our DeGene and Henderson teams for driving higher volumes through their output centers and improving the baseline profitability of their businesses. Our recent performance bodes well for the coming year, especially as overall demand remains positive and we still have a strong backlog to work through. All in all, a good year at solutions and more to come. So as we look to the future, what do we see? First, we see a solution segment that is building on momentum generated by media's profit improvement objectives in 2023. In 2024, we're focused on driving revenue with non-chassis channels, penetrating new markets with new product introductions. Additionally, our focus on internal profit drivers continues, driven by product redesigns, sourcing improvements, and DDMS continued improvement initiatives on the shop floor and in our upgrade centers. From a chassis perspective, we expect to see some impact from the UAW strike in the first quarter of 2024, which has been taken into account with our guidance. Overall, we are not projecting significant near-term improvements in chassis supply. We do enter 2024 with strong backlogs. If chassis supply does improve during the year, We're poised to move increased velocity through our business model. Second, looking at the attachments group. While the lengthening replacement cycle will impact demand and attachments this year, the team has repositioned itself to manage through these conditions, staying focused on factors we can control. These include the 2024 cost savings program, new product launches, baseline profit improvement projects that our teams were so successful with in 2023. Our people are using our DDMS continuous improvement mentality to produce creative solutions, improving our operations in the near term, and providing considerable benefits over the long term. Looking ahead at M&A opportunities, our near-term focus is on the attachment segment products that need to be professionally up-fit onto work trucks. We are starting to expand the parameters of our search to include a broader range of companies in certain sectors. Having said that, our criteria for potential acquisition candidates remains intact. They must have strong brands, have significant potential for growth, and would be a good cultural fit with Douglas. We will maintain our disciplined approach, but we always try to look ahead and see a round corner. To be clear, we are not looking to pull the trigger on any deals in the near term. It's important that we have the right strategy and targets in place, which will allow us to execute when our balance sheet is back to normal and we have multiple financing options to consider. Finally, let me say this. We've navigated through some tough external headwinds in recent years, It's situations like this that really test the strength of your leadership teams. Quite frankly, you find out what you're made of. I couldn't be more pleased with how our teams have responded in this environment, finding creative solutions to difficult challenges. Our continuous improvement and getting better every day mentality has shown themselves like never before. The main benefit of navigating through difficult circumstances is that it allows us to take a step back challenge what we do and how we do it, and find ways to improve. Trust me, ladies and gentlemen, we will emerge from these challenges stronger and smarter than before. With that said, I'll hand the call to Sarah.
spk09: Thanks, Bob. Now, the simple story for 2023 was that work solutions produced significantly improved results, while work truck attachments was hindered by unprecedented weather trends. Clearly, 2023 did not unfold as we expected, but collectively, we made the right decisions and implemented the right policies to adapt to these unusual challenges successfully. I want to thank our teams for stepping up, identifying issues, and more importantly, finding solutions as we manage through the year. With that said, let me walk through the numbers for you. On a consolidated basis, net sales were $568.2 million for the year compared to $616.1 million in 2022. The approximate 8% decrease was due to low snowfall impacting volumes and attachments, which was partially offset by higher volumes and better price realization and solutions. Growth profit of $143.3 million or 23.6% of sales compared to 151.5 million or 24.6% last year, as the impact of lower volumes and higher margin attachment segments negatively affected our mix. SG&A expenses, including intangibles amortization, decreased 3.6% to $89.4 million for 2023. compared to $92.7 million for the prior year. The decrease was primarily due to lower incentive-based compensation and the impact of curtailing spending as part of our low snowfall playbook. Adjusted EBITDA for 2023 was $68.1 million, or 12% of sales, compared to $86.8 million, or 14.1% of sales in 2022. We remain focused on improving EBITDA margins and solutions made significant improvement in the year. Interest expense increased to $15.7 million for 2023 compared to $11.3 million in 2022 due to higher interest on our revolver of $3 million based on higher borrowings and higher variable interest rates compared to last year. Our combined tax rate for 2023 was 18.9% compared to 18.5% for 2022. Both rates are lower than typical, with the 2023 rate being impacted by a tax benefit related to the purchase of investment tax credit, and the 2022 rate being impacted by a discrete tax benefit related to state income tax rate changes. Net income for the year was $23.7 million compared to $38.6 million for 2022. Again, due to low snowfall in the first and fourth quarters of the year, impacting volumes at attachments, which was partially offset by improved performance at solutions. Now let's look at the results for the two segments. Net sales at our attachment segment were $2,291.7 million for 2023, compared to $382.3 million in the prior year. The significant decrease was due to unprecedented low snowfall in our core markets during the 22 and 23 snow season and the beginning of the 23-24 snow season. This translated into adjusted EBITDA of 50.6 million, or 17.3% of net sales for 2023, compared to 78.2 million, or 20.5% of net sales in 2022. The severe lack of snowfall and its impact on demand led us to implement the previously announced 2024 Cost Savings Program, which focused on both attachments and corporate functions primarily in the form of headcount reduction. We expect the program to produce annualized pre-tax savings of $8 to $10 million, with 75% of the savings expected to be realized this year, and $2 million in pre-tax restructuring charges, primarily in the first quarter. The story was more positive at Solutions. 2023 net sales increased 18%, to $276.5 million when compared to the prior year due to higher volumes on improved chassis availability and improved price increase realization. In the fourth quarter of 2023, we began to see the significant improvement in pricing action on our longer-term municipal contracts, which we took to mitigate the inflationary factors experienced over the last couple of years. The impact of higher volumes and pricing improvements fell through to adjusted EBITDA, which more than doubled from 8.6 million in 2022 to 17.6 million in 2023. In all four quarters of 2023, solutions delivered margin improvement compared to the previous year and delivered mid-single-digit EBITDA margins for the year. making progress towards our long-term margin target of double-digit to low teen margins. As we previously stated, we're still assuming that chassis supply in 2024 will be similar or slightly better than last year, but we don't expect dramatic improvements. Finally, we ended 2023 with $296 million in backlogs, compared to a record $369 million a year ago. Although not a record, the current backlog is still well above the 10-year average and reinforces our positive outlook for solutions for 2024. Now let's look at our balance sheet and liquidity. Net cash provided by operating activities was 12.5 million for the year compared to 40 million in 2022. The decrease was due to a $3.3 million reduction in earnings and $24.2 million in unfavorable working capital changes due to an increase in cash used for accounts payable, which was related to the timing of supplier payments. These working capital changes in the year resulted in free cash flow of $1.9 million compared to $28 million in 2022. Accounts receivable at the end of the year were $83.8 million, $3 million lower than 2022. Inventories were $140.4 million at year end, slightly higher than the $136.5 million at the end of 22. Compared to last year, we ended 2023 with higher levels of snow and ice control equipment inventory due to the lack of snowfall in the fourth quarter. while solutions made progress in reducing their inventory levels that have been elevated due to long lead times and chassis delays. Turning to capital allocation. We paid our dividend of 29.5 cents at year end. We announced today our first quarter 2024 dividend, which is unchanged from last quarter. While the dividend remains our top capital allocation priority, Our aim is to continue our track record and increase it again when conditions allow. At year end, our total liquidity comprised of approximately $24 million in cash and approximately 103 million of borrowing capacity on the revolver. Net debt of $212 million at year end compares to $187 million at the end of 22. As our earnings are reflective of historically low snowfall trends, we are comfortable that our year-end net debt leverage ratio of 3.5 times is above our targeted range temporarily and will return to our targeted range as we return back to average demand in attachments. As you saw in our press release, we amended our credit facility by increasing the leverage ratio to provide us more financial flexibility in the front half of the year. We are confident that we will be able to manage the balance sheet and pull levers we need to so that we are operating within our credit facility guidelines in the back half of the year. Capital expenditures for 2023 total $10.5 million. $1.5 million lower than 22, as we curtailed certain investments as part of our expanded low snowfall playbook during the year. While we expect our 2024 CapEx to be higher than 2023, we will be on the lower end of our range of 2% to 3% of revenue, and we will be prudent with timing of the investments, as spending will remain somewhat constrained as part of our 2024 cost savings program. Now let's turn to our outlook. As you saw in the release, we expect 2024 net sales to be between $600 and $660 million. Adjusted EBITDA is predicted to range from $70 to $100 million, which would produce adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.20 to $2.10 per share. The effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 24% to 25%. The adjusted EPS range of $1.20 to $2.10 indicates growth over 2023 results. This is driven by continued ongoing baseline profit improvement, the implementation of the 2024 cost savings program, and projected higher volumes and attachments. Solutions enters 2024 in the best position since before the pandemic, with continued positive demand and backlog trends combined with improved operating performance. The largest assumption of our 2024 guidance relates to the replacement cycle of snow and ice equipment in the field. Given the unprecedented weather patterns experienced in our core markets, the equipment replacement cycle for attachments is elongated. We are assuming approximately half of the weather-driven volume decline in 2023 will be recovered in 2024, assuming we see a return to average snowfall in the fourth quarter. When we enter our preseason ordering in April, we will have further indications on this assumption this assumption and I plan to provide an update to our guidance with our first quarter call if we find orders are trending up or down at that point. When we look longer term, our segment financial targets remain consistent. For attachments, we believe we can deliver low to mid single digit sales growth and adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid to high 20s. In 2024, the 2024 cost savings program alone is expected to drive attachment adjusted EBITDA margins back close to 20% with further improvement to margins as we progress through a multi-year return to average demand. For solutions, we expect to maintain mid to high single digit sales growth in 2024. along with continued improvement towards low double-digit EBITDA margins. The improvement expected in 2024 is driven by continued success on baseline profit improvements and greater price realization and keeps us on the path towards double-digit to low teen margins over the longer term. It's worth noting that our outlook includes underlying assumptions such as relatively stable economic conditions, stable to slightly improving supply of chassis and components, and that core markets will experience slightly below or better snowfall in the first quarter of 2024 and average snowfall in the fourth quarter of 2024. Despite the recent weather-driven challenges, we remain focused on the profit profiles of our two segments. We will continue to make the baseline profit improvements needed to meet the long-term potential of these businesses. With that, we'd like to open up the call for questions. Operator?
spk07: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star and 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the key. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Our first question today comes from Mike Schliske with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.
spk03: Hi, good morning, and thank you. Maybe some comments that you made on the dividend, Sarah, I wanted to clarify. So you mentioned you were holding back on making a decision about increasing the dividend for 2024. Is it the same chance that you would increase as well as cut, or is cutting the dividend just not on the table, either going to be flat or up, is your current thinking?
spk09: Yeah. Good morning, Mike. You know, certainly we've always talked, and it has not changed, that the dividend is our number one priority. And we have strived to increase and have a sustainable dividend for years now, and we've had many years of increasing dividends. We believe the dividend is absolutely sustainable at this point. All of our plans for the year include that dividend, and we expect that to continue.
spk14: Yeah, I'll just jump in there to reiterate what Sarah said, Mike. This public company thesis for Douglas Dynamics was launched 14 years ago with the dividend being front and center. That hasn't changed. Okay, while it's prudent not to increase it as we navigate through this weather environment, it is still the number one priority, and our business model is built around protecting it and delivering it every quarter.
spk03: Okay, got it. I also have a quick housekeeping item about the guidance. In the press release, you kind of had two different sentences about EPS, and I wanted to just kind of square them up. two of them together and also what you provided back on January 30th. So you mentioned the $1.20 to $2.10 of adjusted EPS in dollars, but then growth of 50% to 100% also, which would suggest $150 to $2. Then you said I think it was 70% to 80% back on January 30th. So I'm not really sure. They're kind of in the same range more or less, but which one is the most appropriate one for us to look at?
spk09: That's a great question, Mike. So the guidance range, as we typically give it, the $1.20 to $2.10, that encompasses low snowfall potentially in the fourth quarter on the low end of the range. The next statement there was meant to be a qualitative statement getting at the significant amount of earnings per share increase that we have in front of us. based on weather and on the other levers that we pulled. So the 50 to 100% is within that guidance range, but it was really more a qualitative statement to get at the magnitude of the earnings per share growth.
spk02: Okay. I'll follow up on that later, I guess.
spk09: I guess let me follow up, Mike, with just focus on the guidance ranges we typically provided, the $1.20 to $2.10. And as I mentioned in my script, you know, the larger assumption there being the 50% return to average, that we will update in April if we're seeing it's trending in any different fashion.
spk03: Okay. Maybe let's talk about more of the long-term here. You've mentioned in the past you can get in an average snowfall year $3 a share is what you're looking to get next time we see it, it sounds like, which might not be until next year at least, but that's what you're looking at. That's what I last heard from you folks. I guess could you comment, is that viewpoint still valid? And then maybe secondly, the cost improvement program that you've kind of rolling out here, could add another quarter or higher to EPS, and that was probably not perceived of when you first issued that $3 guidance. Was it more like $3.25 going forward? And then lastly, attachments would have to go up quite a bit from here in an average snowfall scenario. I know you mentioned low to mid-to-mid-year growth, but would there really be a gap up year first if we see more normal snow and then you have to But from there to your long-term growth rate, those are my three questions about the more broader long-term view. I'd appreciate it.
spk14: Got it. No, let me start, and then I'll let Sarah finish. Obviously, we've been talking about $3 share targets for quite some time. Most recently, over the past couple of years, we've talked about $3 BPS by 2025. That journey... driven largely by internal profit drivers, which we've talked about quite a bit, right? We took pretty conservative stances, Mike, on the external drivers, both snowfall and chassis supply, to reach those long-term targets. We're pleased to say, and we'll shout from the rooftops, we have delivered on our internal profit driver commitments, and we expect that to continue. Okay? Now, having said that, this... profit model is always impacted by weather, right? In most environments, snow falls up or down five to 10%. It doesn't really move the needle very much given what's happened over the last year and a half, right? The, the historic impact on earnings of weather has been over a dollar of BPS. So it more than wipes out the gains from the internal profit drivers. Having said all that, um, As we find ourselves moving forward from today, we are laser focused on three things, right? We've repositioned the attachments business to support a multi-year return to normal demand levels. And when that occurs, as that occurs, you're going to see some nice gains. We have to continue to support the continued improvements within the solutions group that Sarah's talked about. And then lastly, where I started, we are still laser focused on delivering our internal profit drivers. Now, you know, you put all those things together, and that'll drive significant EPS improvements in 2024 and 25. Okay, that's where our attention is at this point. Sarah's reiterated that our long-term goals by segment really haven't changed. I'll give her a chance to add any additional comments she may want to provide.
spk09: Yeah, when I go back to your three questions, Mike, you know, Bob just walked through, I guess, the journey and the fact that we're reaffirming where the segments land, which is the growth rate and attachments of low to mid single digits and mid to high 20s margin with the solutions being that mid to high single digits and double digits to low teens margin. We absolutely see a path to those. there's no impact of being greater than a dollar. And the multi-year aspect is really more the assumption that we've had to make in the first year. And the cost savings program absolutely is additive to where we were several years ago. That's call it 20 to 30 cents that we expect within our guidance this year. And we expect those to be permanent additions to our earnings as we move forward. So all of those things, I guess, well position us to get that significant earnings per share increase that we've been talking about. We're just not focused on the timing of the $3. OK. OK.
spk03: I'll take one of the questions offline. Thank you so much. Thanks, Mike.
spk07: Thank you. The next question is from Robert Schultz with Baird. Please go ahead.
spk17: Hey, good morning. You guys talked about recovering about half of the weather-driven volume declines that you experienced in 2023. Maybe could you provide a little bit more context there and kind of the underlying assumptions you made to get to half?
spk14: Sure. Let me start and I'll let Sarah jump on. You know, we've talked over the years, right? I mean, weather goes up and down, but one of the unique things about this weather business is we have enough history that when something happens, we can find two or three other data points historically where a similar thing has happened and therefore we know what happens next. We're not in that space right now, right? What's happened over the last 18 months has never happened before. So there's not a lot of history to draw on. So we're making more educated guesses and then tweaking those things up or down as the cycles show themselves. So, Sarah, you want to add something to that?
spk09: Yeah. So our assumption and our guidance is based on the volume loss in attachments that we experienced in 2023. So we are assuming that we get about half of that back. And then once April begins and we start to see preseason, we'll have more indications of that assumption. And so my plan is to update our guidance if we see that it's materially different up or down from that point.
spk17: Got it. Thanks. And then maybe on the solution side, on the guidance for next year, maybe how should we think about the contribution there between Dijana and Henderson?
spk09: I would say they're both improving equally. They're both on their journey to the targets that have been set out for the segment and they both are making improvements that I would say are relatively equal into my commentary for solutions in total.
spk17: Awesome. And then just one more for me. What are you expecting for free cash flow this year and kind of what are the puts and takes?
spk09: Yeah, so when you look at the midpoint of the guidance for our EBITDA, I'll kind of walk you through the pieces. Cash interest, I would say, is around $15 to $16 million and not too far from prior year. And cash taxes, we're expecting to be flat. And I mentioned our CapEx would be at the low end of our range of 2% to 3% of sales. And then, you know, the assumption on working capital, if you look at this year's working capital, it was greatly impacted by account payable timing. This year I would say you, and this year I would say more relatively flat working capital. with us having opportunity to exceed that with the inventory reduction plans that we have in place.
spk16: Awesome. Thanks. I'll leave it there then.
spk05: Thanks, Bubba.
spk07: Thank you. The next question comes from Greg Burns with Sudodian Company. Please go ahead.
spk15: Good morning. Could you quantify what the – the impact on the UAW strike will be in the first quarter or what exactly the impact will be to you?
spk09: Yeah, we've incorporated it into our guidance. I will tell you, Greg, it's a little bit hard to understand exactly what UAW impact is versus other supply chain movements. I would say that we've estimated probably between $1.5 to $3.5 million of EBITDA primarily in the first quarter. Yeah.
spk15: Okay. Okay. And I just wanted to, I guess, understand the guidance a little better and what the assumption is for the first quarter. Like, are you expecting... You know, what kind of end of the snow season are you expecting here in your outlook? What is factored in your guidance? Like if we get no snow, would we be more inclined to lower?
spk09: So January snowfall was better than January last year. We had snow show up on the east coast, and that was – very good we actually had a record january for parts and accessories in our attachment segment because of that that snowfall um february you can you can see out your window has not been significant from a from a snow standpoint and that's more heavily weighted for the snow season so right now our assumption is that we have a below average snowfall that's what's in inside our guidance for the year for the first quarter. When I think about first quarter results, we are expecting improvement over prior year in total. And I would say the snowfall that we saw in January and that improvement helps us to work our way towards close to break even for the first quarter, which, as you know, is our seasonal lowest order of the year.
spk15: Okay, great. And when you consider M&A, are you looking to stay within your existing product categories or potentially maybe looking at a new category maybe that's less weather dependent?
spk14: Yeah, we certainly in the attachments acquisition strategy, we are targeting attachment products that are outside of traditional snow and ice control. And obviously there's a host of reasons why, but one of them you just mentioned, right? We need to, over the long run, further diversify our earnings away from being so snow and ice control reliant. Most of the focus is outside of snow and ice.
spk04: Okay, great. All right, thank you.
spk06: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. Seeing no further questions, this concludes our Q&A session.
spk07: I would like to hand the call back over to President Bob McCormick for any closing remarks.
spk14: Thanks. Thank you for your time today. We appreciate your ongoing interest in Douglas Dynamics. Our company is built to manage through uncertainty, and while it's been tested of late, I think we are shown we are more than capable of making the necessary decisions, however difficult, and then executing those plans. The long-term demand trends and outlook remain positive for all of our businesses. We are confident that as external headwinds subside, we will come back stronger, deliver improvements, and reach our long-term goals. I'm excited about the future at Douglas Dynamics. Our best is still ahead of us. Thank you and have a terrific day.
spk07: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Hello and welcome to the Douglas Dynamics fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. And to withdraw from the question queue, please press star then two. I would now like to hand the call to Nathan Elwell, Vice President of IR. Please go ahead.
spk13: Thank you, MJ. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that some of the comments that will be made during this conference call, including answers to your questions, will constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters that we have described in yesterday's press release and in our filings with the SEC. Joining me on the call today is Bob McCormick, President and CEO, and Sarah Lauber, Executive Vice President and CFO. Bob will provide an overview of our performance, followed by Sarah reviewing our financial results and guidance. After that, we'll open the call for questions. After that, I'll hand the call over to Bob. Please go ahead.
spk14: Thanks, Nathan. Good morning, everyone. Today, I want to talk briefly about the fourth quarter in 2023, as you probably saw our detailed pre-release last month and the release yesterday evening. But more importantly, I'd like to focus on 2024 and the bright future I see for Douglas Dynamics. The main drivers of our fourth quarter performance were a continuation and expansion of what we had previously discussed throughout 2023. Work Truck Solutions performance was the highlight of the fourth quarter and 2023 in total. Their strong Q4 completed a calendar year where they met their financial targets, improving EBITDA margins each quarter over prior year performance. I want to commend the Solutions team for their dedication and performance, and I'm pleased to say we expect continued improvements throughout 2024. The improved Solutions performance however, was overshadowed by weather-driven challenges in the attachment sector. Following two years of excellent results in attachments, the weather really impacted performance in 2023 and was the reason our results came in well below our expectations. We've been in the snow business for 75-plus years, and while we've seen our share of poor snowfall seasons, we've never seen back-to-back seasons of this magnitude. The first quarter of 2023 was impacted by the end of the 22-23 snow season with record low snowfall on the east coast. The fourth quarter of 2023 was impacted by the start of the current 23-24 snow season, which saw very low snowfall across the entire snow belt, with snowfall totals that were nearly 70% below the 10-year average. As a result of these unprecedented weather patterns, there was a record 700-plus day gap between measurable snowfalls in important East Coast markets. This resulted in the lowest fourth quarter order activity we've ever seen, signaling that the equipment replacement cycle has lengthened to a point where it will take more than one snow season to return to an average demand environment. As many of you know, we are accustomed to rapidly adjusting our spending and production levels, because of the influence of weather, we implemented the Low Snowfall Playbook in early 2023 and pulled a record level of short-term cost savings numbers. When fourth quarter snowfall came in well below historical averages, we determined that we needed to take more aggressive and permanent cost reduction measures to align our cost structure with current demand trends, which we call the 2024 Cost Savings Program. Sarah will discuss the details later, but in summary, We expect $8 to $10 million in annualized savings. Frankly, these are some of the hardest decisions we've had to make in our careers, but they were the right moves for the long-term financial and operational health of the company. I'm so proud of our leadership teams for how they have responded in this situation. They acted swiftly and decisively. What's even more important is that while making these decisions, they never lost sight of our key long-term growth initiatives. ensuring that we stay focused on protecting and growing not only our market share, but our competitive advantages in the market. From a weather perspective, we have seen a mild El Nino pattern in the first quarter, which is not as strong as we hoped for. I am glad to say that weather conditions were stronger in January, with snowfall totals above average across the snow belt. In fact, we set a record for parts and accessories orders in the month of January, which is a good sign. In early February, we saw the first nor'easter in two years. Having said that, the back half of February has been pretty quiet. While the winter weather season isn't over yet, at this point, it seems likely we'll finish the season with below-average snowfall totals. On a more positive note, while our dealer checks at the end of January confirm inventory levels remain above the five-year average, they have begun to moderate, so they are starting to come down. I'm pleased to say that both dealer sentiment and financial health remain positive. Lastly, we are gearing up to launch some exciting new products at the NTA Work Truck Show in Indianapolis in a couple of weeks. More to come on that topic next quarter. So there is no doubt it's been a difficult year in the attachments group. But as always, we'll edit this environment stronger, knowing our team will be ready to drive profitable growth again when conditions allow. Let's turn to Work Truck Solutions, where the 2023 story has been much more positive. The Solutions segment completed a strong finish to 2023, delivering on its goal of mid-single-digit EBITDA margins. Again, we want to thank our DeJana and Henderson teams for driving higher volumes through their output centers and improving the baseline profitability of their businesses. Our recent performance bodes well for the coming year, especially as overall demand remains positive, and we still have a strong backlog to work through. All in all, a good year at solutions and more to come. So as we look to the future, what do we see? First, we see a solution segment that is building on momentum generated by media's profit improvement objectives in 2023. 2024, we're focused on driving revenue with non-chassis channels, penetrating new markets with new product introductions. Additionally, Our focus on internal profit drivers continues, driven by product redesigns, sourcing improvements, and DDMS continued improvement initiatives on the shop floor and in our output centers. From a chassis perspective, we expect to see some impact from the UAW strike in the first quarter of 2024, which has been taken into account with our guidance. Overall, we are not projecting significant near-term improvements in chassis supply. We do enter 2024 with strong backlogs. If chassis supply does improve during the year, we're poised to move increased velocity through our business model. Second, looking at the attachments group. While the lengthening replacement cycle will impact demand and attachments this year, the team has repositioned itself to manage through these conditions, staying focused on factors we new product launches, and baseline profit improvement projects that our teams were so successful with in 2023. Our people are using our DDMS continuous improvement mentality to produce creative solutions, improving our operations in the near term, and providing considerable benefits over the long term. Looking ahead at M&A opportunities, our near-term focus is on the attachment segment. with complex products that need to be professionally up-fit onto work trucks. We are starting to expand the parameters of our search to include a broader range of companies in certain sectors. Having said that, our criteria for potential acquisition candidates remains intact. They must have strong brands, have significant potential for growth, and would be a good cultural fit with Douglas. We will maintain our disciplined approach but we always try to look ahead and see around corners. To be clear, we are not looking to pull the trigger on any deals in the near term. It's important that we have the right strategy and targets in place, which will allow us to execute when our balance sheet is back to normal and we have multiple financing options to consider. Finally, let me say this. We've navigated through some tough external headwinds in recent years, It's situations like this that really test the strength of your leadership teams. Quite frankly, you find out what you're made of. I couldn't be more pleased with how our teams have responded in this environment, finding creative solutions to difficult challenges. Our continuous improvement and getting better everyday mentality has shown themselves like never before. The main benefit of navigating through difficult circumstances is that it allows us to take a step back challenge what we do and how we do it, and find ways to improve. Trust me, ladies and gentlemen, we will emerge from these challenges stronger and smarter than before. With that said, I'll hand the call to Sarah.
spk09: Thanks, Bob. The simple story for 2023 was that work solutions produced significantly improved results, while work truck attachments was hindered by unprecedented weather trends. Clearly, 2023 did not unfold as we expected, but collectively, we made the right decisions and implemented the right policies to adapt to these unusual challenges successfully. I want to thank our team for stepping up, identifying issues, and more importantly, finding solutions as we manage through the year. With that said, let me walk through the numbers for you. On a consolidated basis, net sales were $568.2 million for the year compared to $616.1 million in 2022. The approximate 8% decrease was due to low snowfall impacting volumes and attachments, which was partially offset by higher volumes and better price realization and solutions. Growth profit of $143.3 million or 23.6% of sales compared to 151.5 million or 24.6% last year, as the impact of lower volumes and higher margin attachment segments negatively affected our mix. SG&A expenses, including intangibles amortization, decreased 3.6% to $89.4 million for 2023. compared to $92.7 million for the prior year. The decrease was primarily due to lower incentive-based compensation and the impact of curtailing spending as part of our low snowfall playbook. Adjusted EBITDA for 2023 was $68.1 million, or 12% of sales, compared to $86.8 million, or 14.1% of sales in 2022. We remain focused on improving EBITDA margins and solutions made significant improvement in the year. Interest expense increased to $15.7 million for 2023 compared to $11.3 million in 2022 due to higher interest on our revolver of $3 million based on higher borrowings and higher variable interest rates compared to last year. Our combined tax rate for 2023 was 18.9% compared to 18.5% for 2022. Both rates are lower than typical with the 2023 rate being impacted by a tax benefit related to the purchase of investment tax credits and the 2022 rate being impacted by a discrete tax benefit related to state income tax rate changes. Net income for the year was $23.7 million compared to $38.6 million for 2022. Again, due to low snowfall in the first and fourth quarters of the year, impacting volumes of attachments, which was partially offset by improved performance at solutions. Now let's look at the results for the two segments. Net sales at our attachment segment were $2,291.7 million for 2023, compared to $382.3 million in the prior year. The significant decrease was due to unprecedented low snowfall in our core markets during the 22 and 23 snow season and the beginning of the 23-24 snow season. This translated into adjusted EBITDA of 50.6 million, or 17.3% of net sales for 2023, compared to 78.2 million, or 20.5% of net sales in 2022. The severe lack of snowfall and its impact on demand led us to implement the previously announced 2024 Cost Savings Program, which focused on both attachments and corporate functions primarily in the form of headcount reduction. We expect the program to produce annualized pre-tax savings of $8 to $10 million, with 75% of the savings expected to be realized this year, and $2 million in pre-tax restructuring charges, primarily in the first quarter. The story was more positive at Solutions. 2023 net sales increased 18%, to $276.5 million when compared to the prior year due to higher volumes on improved chassis availability and improved price increase realizations. In the fourth quarter of 2023, we began to see the significant improvement in pricing action on our longer-term municipal contracts, which we took to mitigate the inflationary factors experienced over the last couple of years. The impact of higher volumes and pricing improvements fell through to adjusted EBITDA, which more than doubled from 8.6 million in 2022 to 17.6 million in 2023. In all four quarters of 2023, solutions delivered margin improvement compared to the previous year and delivered mid-single-digit EBITDA margins for the year. making progress towards our long-term margin target of double-digit to low teen margins. As we previously stated, we're still assuming that chassis supply in 2024 will be similar or slightly better than last year, but we don't expect dramatic improvements. Finally, we ended 2023 with $296 million in backlog, compared to a record $369 million a year ago. Although not a record, the current backlog is still well above the 10-year average and reinforces our positive outlook for solutions for 2024. Now let's look at our balance sheet and liquidity. Net cash provided by operating activities was 12.5 million for the year compared to 40 million in 2022. The decrease was due to a $3.3 million reduction in earnings and $24.2 million in unfavorable working capital changes due to an increase in cash used for accounts payable, which was related to the timing of supplier payments. These working capital changes in the year resulted in free cash flow of $1.9 million compared to $28 million in 2022. Accounts receivable at the end of the year were $83.8 million, $3 million lower than 2022. Inventories were $140.4 million at year end, slightly higher than the $136.5 million at the end of 22. Compared to last year, we ended 2023 with higher levels of snow and ice control equipment inventory due to the lack of snowfall in the fourth quarter. while solutions made progress in reducing their inventory levels that have been elevated due to long lead times and chassis delays. Turning to capital allocation. We paid our dividend of 29 and a half cents at year end. We announced today our first quarter 2024 dividend, which is unchanged from last quarter. While the dividend remains our top capital allocation priority, Our aim is to continue our track record and increase it again when conditions allow. At year end, our total liquidity comprised of approximately $24 million in cash and approximately 103 million of borrowing capacity on the revolver. Net debt of $212 million at year end compares to $187 million at the end of 22. As our earnings are reflective of historically low snowfall trends, we are comfortable that our year-end net debt leverage ratio of 3.5 times is above our targeted range temporarily and will return to our targeted range as we return back to average demand in attachments. As you saw in our press release, we amended our credit facility by increasing the leverage ratio to provide us more financial flexibility in the front half of the year. We are confident that we will be able to manage the balance sheet and pull levers we need to so that we are operating within our credit facility guidelines in the back half of the year. Capital expenditures for 2023 total $10.5 million. $1.5 million lower than 22, as we curtailed certain investments as part of our expanded low snowfall playbook during the year. While we expect our 2024 CapEx to be higher than 2023, we will be on the lower end of our range of 2% to 3% of revenue, and we will be prudent with timing of the investments, as spending will remain somewhat constrained as part of our 2024 cost savings program. Now let's turn to our outlook. As you saw in the release, we expect 2024 net sales to be between 600 and $660 million. Adjusted EBITDA is predicted to range from 70 to $100 million, which would produce adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.20 to $2.10 per share. The effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 24 to 25%. The adjusted EPS range of $1.20 to $2.10 indicates growth over 2023 results. This is driven by continued ongoing baseline profit improvements, the implementation of the 2024 cost savings program, and projected higher volumes and attachments. Solutions enters 2024 in the best position since before the pandemic, with continued positive demand and backlog trends combined with improved operating performance. The largest assumption of our 2024 guidance relates to the replacement cycle of snow and ice equipment in the field. Given the unprecedented weather patterns experienced in our core markets, the equipment replacement cycle for attachments is elongated. We are assuming approximately half of the weather-driven volume decline in 2023 will be recovered in 2024, assuming we see a return to average snowfall in the fourth quarter. When we enter our preseason ordering in April, we will have further indications on this assumption this assumption and I plan to provide an update for our guidance with our first quarter call. If we find orders are trending up or down at that point. When we look longer term, our segment financial targets remain consistent. For attachments, we believe we can deliver low to mid single digit sales growth and adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid to high 20s. In 2024, the 2024 cost savings program alone is expected to drive attachment adjusted EBITDA margins back close to 20% with further improvement to margins as we progress through a multi-year return to average demand. For solutions, we expect to maintain mid to high single digit sales growth in 2024. along with continued improvement towards low double-digit EBITDA margins. The improvement expected in 2024 is driven by continued success on baseline profit improvements and greater price realization, and keeps us on the path towards double-digit to low teen margins over the longer term. It's worth noting that our outlook includes underlying assumptions such as relatively stable economic conditions, stable to slightly improving supply of chassis and components, and that core markets will experience slightly below or better snowfall in the first quarter of 2024 and average snowfall in the fourth quarter of 2024. Despite the recent weather-driven challenges, we remain focused on the profit profiles of our two segments. We will continue to make the baseline profit improvements needed to meet the long-term potential of these businesses. With that, we'd like to open up the call for questions. Operator?
spk07: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the key. To withdraw your question, Please press star, then two. Our first question today comes from Mike Schliske with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.
spk03: Hi, good morning, and thank you. Maybe some comments that you made on the dividend, Sarah, I wanted to clarify. So you mentioned you were holding back on making a decision about increasing the dividend for 2024. Is it the same chance that you would increase as well as cut, or is cutting the dividend just not on the table, either going to be flat or up, is your current thinking?
spk09: Yeah. Good morning, Mike. You know, certainly we've always talked, and it has not changed, that the dividend is our number one priority. And we have strived to increase and have a sustainable dividend for years now, and we've had many years of increasing dividends. We believe the dividend is absolutely sustainable at this point. All of our plans for the year include that dividend, and we expect that to continue.
spk14: Yeah, I'll just jump in there to reiterate what Sarah said, Mike. This public company thesis for Douglas Dynamics was launched 14 years ago with the dividend being front and center. That hasn't changed. Okay, while it's prudent not to increase it as we navigate through this weather environment, it is still the number one priority, and our business model is built around protecting it and delivering it every quarter.
spk03: Okay, got it. I also have a quick housekeeping item about the guidance. In the press release, you kind of had two different sentences about EPS, and I wanted to just kind of square them up. the two of them together and also what you provided back on January 30th. So you mentioned the $1.20 to $2.10 of adjusted EPS in dollars, but then growth of 50% to 100% also, which would suggest $150 to $2. Then you said I think it was 70% to 80% back on January 30th. So I'm not really sure. They're kind of in the same range more or less, but which one is the most appropriate one for us to look at?
spk09: That's a great question, Mike. So the guidance range, as we typically give it, the $1.20 to $2.10, that encompasses low snowfall potentially in the fourth quarter on the low end of the range. The next statement there was meant to be a qualitative statement getting at the significant amount of earnings per share increase that we have in front of us. based on weather and on the other levers that we pulled. So the 50% to 100% is within that guidance range, but it was really more a qualitative statement to get at the magnitude of the earnings per share growth.
spk02: Okay. I'll follow up on that later, I guess.
spk09: I guess let me follow up, Mike, with just focus on the guidance ranges we typically provided, the $1.20 to $2.10. And as I mentioned in my script, you know, the larger assumption there being the 50% return to average, that we will update in April if we're seeing it's trending in any different fashion.
spk03: Okay. Maybe let's talk about more of the long-term here. You've mentioned in the past you can get in an average snowfall year $3 a share is what you're looking to get next time we see it, it sounds like, which might not be until next year at least, but that's what you're looking at. That's what I last heard from you folks. I guess could you comment, is that viewpoint still valid? And then maybe secondly, the cost improvement program that you're kind of rolling out here, could add another quarter or higher to EPS, and that was probably not perceived of when you first issued that $3 guidance. Was it more like $3.25 going forward? And then lastly, attachments would have to go up quite a bit from here in an average snowfall scenario. I know you mentioned low to mid-to-late growth, but would there really be a gap up year first if we see more normal snow and then you have to But from there to your long-term growth rate, those are my three questions about the more broader long-term view. I'd appreciate it.
spk14: Got it. Noah, let me start, and then I'll let Sarah finish. Obviously, we've been talking about $3 a share targets for quite some time. Most recently, over the past couple of years, we've talked about $3 of EPS by 2025. That journey... driven largely by internal profit drivers, which we've talked about quite a bit, right? We took pretty conservative stances, Mike, on the external drivers, both snowfall and chassis supply, to reach those long-term targets. We're pleased to say, and we'll shout from the rooftops, we have delivered on our internal profit driver commitments, and we expect that to continue. Okay? Now, having said that, this Profit model is always impacted by weather. In most environments, snow falls up or down 5% to 10%. It doesn't really move the needle very much. Given what's happened over the last year and a half, the historic impact on earnings of weather has been over $1 of BPS. So it more than wipes out the gains from the internal profit drivers. Having said all that, As we find ourselves moving forward from today, we are laser focused on three things, right? We've repositioned the attachments business to support a multi-year return to normal demand levels. And when that occurs, as that occurs, you're gonna see some nice gains. We have to continue to support the continued improvements within the solutions group that Sarah's talked about. And then lastly, where I started, we are still laser-focused on delivering our internal profit drivers. Now, you know, you put all those things together, and that'll drive significant EPS improvements in 2024 and 2025. Okay, that's where our attention is at this point. Sarah's reiterated that our long-term goals by segment really haven't changed. I'll give her a chance to add any additional comments she may want to provide.
spk09: Yeah, when I go back to your three questions, Mike, you know, Bob just walked through, I guess, the journey and the fact that we're reaffirming where the segments land, which is the growth rate and attachments of low to mid single digits and mid to high 20s margin with the solutions being that mid to high single digits and double digits to low teens margin. We absolutely see a path to those. there's no impact of being greater than a dollar. And the multi-year aspect is really more the assumption that we've had to make in the first year. And the cost savings program absolutely is additive to where we were several years ago. That's call it 20 to 30 cents that we expect within our guidance this year. And we expect those to be permanent additions to our earnings as we move forward. So all of those things, I guess, well position us to get that significant earnings per share increase that we've been talking about. We're just not focused on the timing of the $3. OK. OK.
spk03: I'll take one of the questions offline. Thank you so much. Thanks, Mike.
spk07: Thank you. The next question is from Robert Schultz with Baird. Please go ahead.
spk17: Hey, good morning. You guys talked about recovering about half of the weather-driven volume declines that you experienced in 2023. Maybe could you provide a little bit more context there and kind of the underlying assumptions you made to get to half?
spk14: Sure. Let me start, and I'll let Sarah jump on. You know, we've talked over the years, right? I mean, weather goes up and down, but one of the unique things about this weather business is we have enough history that when something happens, we can find two or three other data points historically where a similar thing has happened, and therefore we know what happens next. We're not in that space right now. What's happened over the last 18 months has never happened before. So there's not a lot of history to draw on. So we're making more educated guesses and then tweaking those things up or down as the cycles show themselves. So Sarah, you want to add something to that?
spk09: Yeah, so our assumption and our guidance is based on the the volume loss in attachments that we experienced in 2023. So we are assuming that we get about half of that back. And then once April begins and we start to see preseason, we'll have more indications of that assumption. And so my plan is to update our guidance if we see that it's materially different up or down from that point.
spk17: Got it, thanks. And then maybe on the solution side, on the guidance for next year, maybe how should we think about the contribution there between Dijana and Henderson?
spk09: I would say they're both improving equally. They're both on their journey to the targets that have been set out for the segment and they both are making making improvements that I would say are relatively equal into my commentary for solutions in total.
spk17: Awesome. And then just one more from me. What are you expecting for free cash flow this year and kind of what are the puts and takes?
spk09: Yeah, so when you look at the midpoint of the guidance, Um, for our EBITDA, I'll kind of walk you through the pieces. Um, cash interest, I would say, um, is, is around 15 to 16 million. Um, and not, not too far from prior year and cash taxes we're expecting to be flat. And I mentioned our CapEx would be at the low end of our range of two to 3% of sales. And then, you know, the assumption on working capital, if you look at this year's working capital, it was greatly impacted by accounts payable timing. This year, I would say you, and this year, I would say more relatively flat working capital with us having opportunity to exceed that with the inventory reduction plans that we have in place.
spk16: Awesome. Thanks. I'll leave it there then.
spk07: Thank you. The next question comes from Greg Burns with Sidoti & Company. Please go ahead.
spk15: Good morning. Could you quantify what the impact on the UAW strike will be in the first quarter, or what exactly the impact will be to you?
spk09: Yeah, we've incorporated it into our guidance. I will tell you, Greg, it's a little bit hard to understand exactly what UAW impact is versus other, you know, supply chain movements. I would say that we've estimated probably between one and a half to three and a half million dollars of EBITDA in the primarily in the first quarter.
spk15: I just wanted to understand the guidance a little better and what the assumption is for the first quarter. Are you expecting... What kind of end of the snow season are you expecting here in your outlook? What is factored in your guidance? If we get no snow, would we... or inclined to lower?
spk09: So January snowfall was better than January last year. We had snow show up on the east coast and that was very good. We actually had a record January for parts and accessories in our attachment segment because of that snowfall. February, you can see out your window, has not been significant from a from a snow standpoint and that's more heavily weighted for the snow season so right now our assumption is that we have a below average snowfall that's what's in inside our guidance for the year for the first quarter when I think about first quarter results we are expecting improvement over prior year in in total and I would say The snowfall that we saw in January and that improvement helps us to work our way towards close to break-even for the first quarter, which, as you know, is our seasonal lowest quarter of the year.
spk15: Okay, great. And when you consider M&A, are you looking to stay within your existing product categories or potentially maybe looking at a new – New category, maybe that's less weather dependent.
spk14: Yeah, we certainly, in the attachments acquisition strategy, we are targeting attachment products that are outside of traditional snow and ice control. And obviously there's a host of reasons why, but one of them you just mentioned, right? We need to, over the long run, further diversify opportunities Most of the focus is outside of snow and ice.
spk04: Okay, great. All right, thank you.
spk06: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. Seeing no further questions, this concludes our Q&A session.
spk07: I would like to hand the call back over to President Bob McCormick for any closing remarks.
spk14: Thanks. Thank you for your time today. We appreciate your ongoing interest in Douglas Dynamics. Our company is built to manage through uncertainty, and while it's been tested of late, I think we are shown we are more than capable of making the necessary decisions, however difficult, and then executing those plans. The long-term demand trends and outlook remain positive for all of our businesses. We are confident that as external headwinds subside, We will come back stronger, deliver improvements, and reach our long-term goals. I'm excited about the future at Douglas Dynamics. Our best is still ahead of us. Thank you and have a terrific day.
spk07: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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