Philip Morris International Inc

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Philip Morris International Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International Management and the question and answer session. In order to ask a question, please press the star key followed by the number one on your touchtone phone at any time. Media representatives on the call will also be invited to ask questions at the conclusion of questions from the investment community. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead, sir.

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2023 second quarter results. The press release is available on our website at PMI.com. A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products, as well as adjustments, other calculations, and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. gap measures for non-gap financial measures cited in this presentation and additional net revenue data are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8K dated July 20, 2023 and on our Investor Relations website. Growth rates presented on an organic basis reflect currency-neutral adjusted results excluding acquisitions and disposals. As such, figures and comparisons presented on an organic basis exclude Swedish Match up until November 11, 2023. Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements. It is now my pleasure to introduce Emmanuel Barbeau, our Chief Financial Officer. Over to you, Emmanuel.

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone. Our business delivered outstanding performance in the second quarter of 2023, exceeding our expectations to reach a record high quarterly adjusted deleted EPS of $1.60. This was driven by impressive VIN and high-cost growth coupled with strong combustible results. We delivered total cigarette and HTU shipment volume growth of plus 3.3%, putting us well on track for our third consecutive year of positive volumes. This excellent result underpinned double-digit organic top-line growth and high-teens currency neutral adjusted deleted EPS growth. We also expanded our leadership in smoke-free product in the period. Firstly, ICO's strong momentum continued with adjusted in-market sales volume ahead by plus 16% and shipments up by plus 27%. This reflects very good user growth of plus 1.4 million in the quarter and continued strong traction across the world. This is increasingly driven by ICOS Iluma, which is now available in 23 markets, representing around two-thirds of our ICOS business by volume. Secondly, and now two full quarters after the Swedish match acquisition, Zinn is delivering an exceptional acceleration to our smoke-free business. U.S. volumes grew by over plus 50%, including a notable step-up in June. We are delighted with this performance. Our combustible business also delivered better than expected results with over plus 7% organic net revenue growth after a very robust quarter for pricing and resilient volume. This was a key contributor to the strong plus 7% organic operating income growth with a plus 200 basis point sequential improvement in our adjusted operating income margin. Turning to the headline numbers, positive volumes supported very strong organic top-line growth of plus 10.5%, with continued excellent high-cost momentum and a further acceleration in combustible pricing. This does not include the remarkable plus 19% pro forma ex-currency top-line growth of Swedish Match, led by Zin, with combined pro forma X currency net revenues increasing by plus 11.1%. Our total reported currency neutral net revenues grew by plus 19%. Our organic net revenue per unit grew by plus 7%, driven by the increasing proportion of high-cost HTUs in our sales mix and combustible pricing. Due to these positive factors, adjusted operating income grew by a very robust plus 7% organically, despite continued inflationary headwinds. This excludes the tremendous growth of ZIN, and starting in Q4, our organic results will include Swedish match. Adjusted OI margins improved plus 210 basis points sequentially, and while still organically lower year-on-year by 140 basis points, this better-than-expected performance was notably supported by combustible strength and favorable timing of certain costs. We also increased our participation in the below Tier 1 segment in Indonesia, which now represents close to 40% of its industry volumes and is slightly dilutive to our margins. This organic delivery, including the favorable timing of cost, combined with exceptional June ZIN volume and a lower tax rate, allowed us to outperform our most recent Q2 forecast. We delivered adjusted deleted EPS of $1.60, representing plus 16.9% growth, excluding an unfavorable currency impact of 13 cents, notably due to the Japanese yen. While the first quarter of the year contained some exceptional headwinds and distortions due to timing and comparison effects, our business delivered a strong first half, including volume growth of plus 1.1%. Organic net revenues grew by plus 6.8%, with Swedish Match's excellent externancy pro forma net revenue growth of plus 17% for H1, demonstrating its growth accretion to our business. combined pro forma currency neutral net revenue increased by around plus 7.5%. Following peak margin headwinds and a notable operating income decline in the first quarter, the strong improvement in Q2 narrowed the H1 organic decline to minus 2%. As in Q2, this exclude Swedish match which delivered an excellent profit performance and made a significant contribution to our adjusted OI margin. We expect continued strong reported and organic operating income growth in the second half. Despite these headwinds, we delivered plus 5.9% growth in currency-neutral adjusted deleted EPS to $2.98 in H1, providing a strong platform for the second half of 2023 and beyond. Let me now walk through the mechanics of our Q2 net revenues. While not included in our reported shipment volume growth of plus 3.3%, Swedish match smoke-free volume grew by plus 15%, providing impressive accretion to our overall growth profile. Combustible and HTU pricing contributed plus six points of growth. This primarily reflects combustible strength, partly benefiting from timing effect. As in Q1, HTU pricing was impacted in Japan and Germany by the annualization of 2022 excise tax increase, and in the case of Japan, the transition to Illuma. These factors will have less impact in the second half as annualization recedes. We also continue to expect greater visibility on the likely outcome of the court ruling related to the German tax surcharge towards the end of the year. The increasing proportion of HTUs in our business, again, contributed positively, reflecting higher net revenue per unit, partially offset by unfavorable geographic mix. The positive mix impact of HTUs, overall volume growth, and pricing are powerful drivers of our transformation and growth. Let's now turn to growth margins. While the year-on-year trajectory remained negative, we saw improvement versus the first quarter driven by strong growth fundamentals. Indeed, we achieved sequential improvement of 1.2 percentage points despite increased inflationary pressures as top line growth accelerated and supply chain disruption and ILUMA-related factors started to dissipate in the quarter. In addition, cost phasing and the geographic mix of inventory movement, notably for HTU in Europe, increasingly normalized after an adversely affected Q1. Our ICO business contributed positively to our growth margin in Q2, and we expect this to continue, partly mitigating combustible. We expect further improvement in our year-on-year growth margin trajectory in H2, as headwinds continue to subside, ZIN's outstanding growth continues and the underlying driver of our transformation accelerates. As expected, SG&A growth was much closer to net revenue growth in Q2 and at a more normalized growth rate with regard to our full year expectation. Indeed, with such a strong top line in Q2, SG&A costs were lower as a percentage of net revenues. While we continue to invest in ICOS and ZIN, Our successful cost efficiency program continues to deliver, helping to finance growth investment and mitigate inflation, which remains a headwind. With $1.9 billion of growth savings realized to date, including $820 million from SG&A, we are on track to achieve our 2021-2023 $2 billion target ahead of plan. Turning now to the 2023 outlook, we are raising our currency neutral top and bottom line growth forecast. We aim to be a growth company starting with volumes. In 2023, we expect to grow total volume for the third year in a row, even before factoring in the excellent progress of Swedish Match portfolio. As part of this growth, we are reiterating our targeted HTU shipment range of 125 to 132 billion, while we expect a cigarette volume decline of 1.5 to 2.5%. We are increasing our organic net revenue growth forecast to plus 7.5 to plus 8.5%, reflecting the continued momentum of ICOS, the resilience of our combustible business, and the ongoing excellent growth of ZIN, which we expect to contribute positively in Q4. We expect strong organic operating income growth in the remainder of the year to support H2 margin expansion, despite the headwinds previously mentioned and certain technical impacts. These relate to the increased use of third-party manufacturing in a few markets, such as Indonesia and Ukraine, and the related growth of the below Tier 1 segment in Indonesia I already mentioned. The full year estimated impact of this factor is around 40 basis points on our adjusted OI margin, and without this impact, we would expect to be broadly in the middle of our forecast organic margin range. On top of this organic evolution, we expect Swedish Match to add around 50 basis points of accretion. Our front-top line and OI outlook allows us to raise our forecast for currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth to plus 8% to plus 9.5%. This translates to a revised range of $6.13 to $6.22, including $0.33 from unfavorable currency at prevailing exchange rate, notably due to the Japanese yen and Russian ruble. This forecast continues to assume around $150 million for incremental investment in the U.S. and our wellness and healthcare business. It also assumes around $1.2 billion in net finance costs, which includes higher interest on variable debt, partly offset by better returns on cash deposits. As previously mentioned, our forecasts do not assume any contribution from a potential favorable ruling on the Germany tax surcharge. Focusing on the second half in more detail, we expect strong performance on all key metrics as smoke-free products deliver an increasingly positive impact. In Q3, we forecast high single-digit organic top-line growth, with HTU shipments of 31 to 33 billion units, and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.60 to $1.65, including six cents of unfavorable currency at prevailing exchange rate. Looking ahead to Q4, we expect notably strong reported and organic OI growth, as certain inflationary impacts are annualized, and we increasingly benefit from an optimized Illuma supply chain and consumables. As I mentioned, Swedish Match will also be included in our organic figures during the quarter. The exceptional growth of ZIN is clearly margin accretive, as visible in our adjusted H1 figures. Turning back to our results, our total shipment volume increased by plus 3.3% for Q2 and plus 1.1% year-to-date. HTU shipment volume grew by plus 26.6% in Q2, to reach 31.4 billion units, notably driven by continued strong performance in Europe and Japan. In addition to fundamental strengths, HTU shipments to Japan were boosted in Q2 by around 2 billion units as we increased sea freight, with corresponding increase in inventory level. As I mentioned earlier, total PMI adjusted IMS volume of HTUs increased by plus 16% in Q2, continuing the excellent trends in Q1. H1 shipment volume grew by plus 18.5%. Notably, this does not include the excellent growth prospect of oral nicotine, for which shipment volume grew by plus 14% in Q2 and plus 12% in H1 on a pro-forma basis. Cigarette volume declined by a modest 0.4% in Q2, with notable support from Turkey and Egypt, and by 1.7% for H1, reflecting a solid category share performance in a resilient category, despite stepped-up pricing. Our smoke-free transformation continues to progress rapidly. Due to the continuous impressive performance of ICOS, inter-tobacco units comprise 16.4% of our total shipment volume in H1 as compared to 14% in the first half of 2022, despite a resilient cigarette category. Including all smoke-free products, this would be close to 18%. Powered by ICOS and VIN, smoke-free product made up 35% of our adjusted net revenue in H1 compared to 30.9% for the same period in 2022. ICOS devices accounted for approximately 4.5% of our H1 inhalable smoke-free net revenue. Focusing now on combustible. portfolio delivered strong organic net revenue growth of plus 7.4% in Q2 and plus 5.2% in H1. This reflects strong Q2 pricing with a notable contribution from Indonesia and the Philippines. While we don't expect the exceptionally strong Q2 pricing of 9.4% which benefited from timing factors to be fully replicated in H2, we now forecast a full-year increase of plus 7 to plus 8%. Our cigarette category share grew by plus 0.7 points in Q2 on a year-over-year basis, including contributions from Duty Free, Egypt, and Turkey, and by plus 0.1 points in H1, resulting in only modest volume declines. Our leadership in combustible helps to maximize switching to smoke-free products, and we have fully achieved our ongoing objective of stable category share over the last 18 months, despite the impact of high-cost cannibalization. The combination of stable share in combustible and the continued growth of our leading smoke-free brands position us to deliver total market share growth over time. We captured plus 1.1 points of international cigarette and HTU share in Q2, and plus 0.5 points in each one, with notable contributions from Turkey and Japan. Impressively, despite increasing competition in many markets, our volume share of the growing heat node burn category remains stable at around 75%. This is supported by ongoing Illuma market launches and increasing focus on our two-tier HTO portfolio, providing adult smokers with an expanding range of innovative and high-quality alternatives to cigarettes. TMI HTUs, again, strengthen their position as the second-largest nicotine brand in markets where ICOS is present, with a sequential share gain in Q2 of plus 0.2 points to record 9.2% shares. We estimate there were 27.2 million high-cost users as of June 30. This reflects excellent growth of plus 1.4 million adult users in Q2, with notable progress in Japan and Europe, in addition to a broad range of other geographies. While fundamentals remain very strong, I remind you that Q3 user growth can often be below the average for the year, due to the seasonal factors evident in prior years. I will now turn to ICOS in the Europe region, where we are approaching a milestone of 12 million users. This reflects the further rollout of ILUMA, which is now available to around 70% of ICOS users in the region, and the extension of our two-tier portfolio. As an illustration of its progress, Terria is already close to 100% of our HTU in market sales volume in the first launch market of Spain and Switzerland. Our second quarter HTU share increased by plus 1.6 points year over year to 9% of total cigarettes and HTU industry volume. While sequential share is, as usual, optically affected by the seasonality of the cigarette category, adjusted IMS volume continued to exhibit robust sequential growth and reached a record high on the four-quarter moving average. This reflects strong year-on-year growth of plus 20% in Q2, outstripping the plus 11 growth in HTU shipments, which were affected by some residual effect from the inventory dynamic seen in Q1. We expect robust growth in HTU shipments, adjusted IMS, and overall region-organized revenue in the second half. We continue to be encouraged by the increasing number of European countries adopting multi-year excise tax plans with clear differentiation of smoke-free products. Over half of EU member states have now passed multi-year plans. Also in the EU, a number of member states are currently transposing the delegated directive withdrawing the heated tobacco product exemption from the flavor ban into national legislation. The ban is scheduled to come into effect on October the 23rd, and we will be adjusting our HTU portfolio as required in line with this transposition. While short-term volatility is possible, we do not expect a significant change in the structural growth of the category. To give some further color on our continued progress in the region, this slide shows a selection of the latest key cities of tech shares. The success of ICOS continues across a diverse range of geographies, from Western, Southern, Central, and Eastern Europe, including markets with and without Illuma. Despite the denominator effect of the combustible category I just mentioned, share results remain very strong. We are very pleased with trends in Rome, showing a sequential step up to 28% share following the Illuma launch. Robust progress in London and Munich also bodes well for these two key markets. While the Q2 2022 comparison for sharing genius was held by the popularity of certain bundle offers, the share of over 40% remained impressive and underlying of tech continues to grow. In Japan, ICO Sinuma continues to drive impressive growth momentum. Smoke-free products made up over 75% of our Japan net revenue in H1, clearly showing the path for the broader company. Adjusted total tobacco share for our HTU brands increased by 3.4 points in Q2 to 26.3%, further strengthening Terea and Sentia's position as a clear number one and two heat not burn brands, despite intensified price competition for mid and low price offering. Importantly, adjusted IMS volume again grew sequentially, reaching a record high of 9.3 billion units on the four-quarter moving average as ICOs outgrew the heat not burn category. In addition, to this excellent consumer trend, our Q2 shipment to Japan also benefited from progressively switching back to sea freight during the quarter. In addition to strong high-cost gains in developed countries, we continue to see very promising growth in low- and middle-income markets. This slide highlights a selection of Q2 key city of tech shares across markets in Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Notable ongoing successes include Egypt, with scale of tech shares surpassing 8.5%, and Bulgaria, with off-tech share in Sofia exceeding 15%, despite the usual impact of seasonality that I mentioned. We continue to see robust off-tech growing growth across these important future markets. Now, moving to Swedish Match. which is meaningfully accelerating our smoke-free growth trajectory. As covered earlier, the business delivered outstanding currency-neutral net revenue growth of plus 19% in Q2 and plus 17% in H1. This means that in the first half of the year, Swedish Match has added 70 basis points of currency-neutral growth to our pro-format upline and plus 60 basis points to our adjusted OI margin. In the U.S., Zinn delivered another exceptional quarter with volume growth of over 50%, reflecting positive momentum across the country. Elsewhere in smoke-free, recent trends of share gain in U.S. moistness, as well as category mix headwinds in Scandinavia, broadly continued. The cigar business performed well, with Q2 organic net revenue growth of plus 16%. This reflects ongoing share gains despite being an early mover on category pricing. I would like to again congratulate and thank all the Swedish Match employees for continuing to deliver terrific results as we thoughtfully integrate our activities, which is progressing very well. Looking at VIN US performance in more detail, exceptional year-over-year volume growth in CAN of plus 53% also reflect a plus 22% sequential increase versus Q1 2023. This accelerated growth reflect progressive increase in distribution and a broad nationwide step-up in store velocity as a category against strong traction with adult nicotine users for its convenience and pleasurable experience. This includes California, which implemented a statewide flavor ban in December. While such elevated rates of growth may not continue indefinitely, the structural indicators remain very encouraging. Impressively, ZIN category volume share grew plus 2.2 points compared to prior year and plus one point sequentially, despite continued discounting from less premium offerings. Retail value share also grew to 76.8%, highlighting its premium positioning and superior brand equity. Now, let me provide an update on our innovation and expansion plan as we further accelerate our smoke-free transformation. First and foremost, the global rollout of high-cost ILUMA continues to be a top priority. We launched ILUMA in six markets in Q2, and with HTU manufacturing constraints now normalized, we aim to be present in around 50 markets by the end of the year. the most significant opportunity to drive accelerated growth is in the U.S. We are investing behind the scenes and readying our organizational and commercial capabilities for the launch of ICOS in Q2 next year. As mentioned in today's release, we are also on track for ICOS ILUMA PMTA and supplemental MRTPA submission in Q4 2023. Our philosophy on the U.S. remains unchanged. We seek to accelerate our top line with ICOS and ZIN, supported by disciplined investment and leveraging both our extensive experience in small free products and Swedish-matched infrastructure and knowledge, while continuing to deliver strong bottom-line growth for PMI. Our pilot city launches for bonds in the Philippines and Colombia continue to progress well. The learning from this market will be integrated as we roll out more broadly starting next year. The international expansion of nicotine pouches remains a key medium-term opportunity, notably for Zyn as the world's leading brand. We are now preparing for the relaunch of Zyn in several markets. In eVapor, Our refocused approach in select market is progressing with VIVE-1, our newly designed pod-based system introduced in four markets, and VIVE-NOW, our disposable product, in six markets. Now, let me discuss our wellness and healthcare segments, starting with its first clinical trial result for our inalienable aspirin product. While it was observed that the experimental product had a rapid onset of effect, which is a key medical advantage sought, there was significant variability in in-air dose among subjects. The study was therefore deemed unsuccessful, and as a result, product design improvements are required. Our plan was to find this product with the FDA later this year. However, additional time is now required, and the outcome is therefore less certain. In addition, the CDMO business has been facing slower than anticipated development, including cost-related challenges. Consequently, we recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment from our annual assessment as detailed in today's release. While these elements will postpone the achievement of our 2025 aspiration to reach over $1 billion of net revenue from wellness and healthcare products, they will result in a corresponding decrease in the level of investment in 2024. Our ambition to build and monetize our product pipeline are unchanged. As in the early days of developing ICOS, certain headwinds are to be expected, and the 2021 acquisition in this segment has provided us with unique and enabling R&D capability. We remain committed to developing our wellness and healthcare business and continue to see attractive mid- and long-term growth potential on many fronts, such as inalienable drugs, NFC, and consumer wellness products, including non-recursional cannabinoids, in line with applicable regulatory requirements. We also aim to accelerate Victoria's growth and will be exploring potential partnerships to enhance its CDMO business. We plan to discuss all these topics, including our plan for ICOs in the U.S., and a full update on our wellness and healthcare business at our investor day on the 28th of September in Lausanne, Switzerland. Moving now to sustainability. Addressing the product health impact of combustible products by switching adult smokers to smoke-free products, such as ICOs and Zines, remains our most critical priority. This transformation is at the core of our strategy, driving accelerated growth and returns over time from a more sustainable business. In addition, we remain committed to delivering best-in-class progress in other key sustainability areas. With our extensive agricultural and manufacturing supply chain, human rights are a very important responsibility for our company. We released our first dedicated report on the topic last month, detailing our strategy to promote, respect, and protect human rights and the progress to date in implementing our human rights commitments. Our performance on human rights is included in the 19 KPIs of our sustainability index, which comprises 30% of executive long-term equity compensation weighted towards our product transformation. Our goal is to conduct comprehensive human rights impact assessments in our 10 highest risk markets by the end of 2025. These help us better understand and address our impacts, and we are making excellent progress with seven completed to date. Addressing climate change is another priority for us, And I am pleased to share that PMI was included in the Forbes first ever net zero leaders list, ranking seventh overall for all U.S. public company higher than any other consumer product or service company. To conclude today's presentation, we delivered a very strong first half despite the number of headwinds, putting us on track for the third consecutive year of positive volume and organic net revenue growth of over plus 7%. The powerful trajectory of our smoke-free business gives us confidence in a strong full-year performance with excellent operating income growth. Outstanding momentum continues for Icos and Zin, the world-leading heat-not-burn and oral nicotine brands, and we have exciting plans to further grow oral nicotine pouches in the U.S. and internationally. along with the U.S. commercialization of ICOs next year. Importantly, we remain steadfast in our commitment to generously reward our shareholders, including through our progressive dividend policy. In short, our smoke-free transformation continues to deliver sustainable growth. We look forward to sharing more with you on the next phase of our transformation at our investor day on September the 28th. Thank you very much, and we are now delighted to answer your questions.

Thank you. We will now conduct the question and answer portion of the conference. Again, in order to ask a question or make a comment, please press the star key followed by the one on your touchtone phone. In the interest of fairness and time, we ask that participants keep to a maximum of two questions each. If time allows, follow-up questions may be taken. You may rejoin the queue again by pressing star and 1 on your touchtone phone. Our first question comes from Pamela Kaufman from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Hi, good morning. I wanted to ask about your full-year guidance. You exceeded your own Q2 guidance by at least 13 cents. but did not flow through the EPS beat to the full-year outlook, even when factoring the greater FX headwinds. What's tempering the flow-through of Q2 upside, and how much does this reflect conservatism around the balance of the year versus a more cautious outlook on the second half or higher investments? Thanks.

Thank you, Pam. When we look at the driver for beating our initial expectation for Q2, I think we can probably make three buckets. One is the outperformance of ZIN versus our expectation. and that's something that we are, of course, taking into account as we see a better trajectory for ZIN than initially anticipated. Remember, that will only contribute to our organic growth on revenue in Q4, but that is, of course, helping the adjusted EPS growth, excluding Forex. We also see some costs that have been moved to H2, and that is if you want, costs that we're going to see in H2, so it's not a net addition for the year. And then there was, as we said, some better news on financial costs, you know, costs on our debt. There was also some element on tax. And, of course, this one is more uncertain and more difficult to predict for the second part of the year. But I think, as always, you know, we are building scenario for the full year. We've been including in a clear way what we see a real change in the trajectory and on which we have visibility for the second half. On things where we have postponement or things with good news, but of course we still have a lot of uncertainty on H2, of course we have to be a bit more cautious when we take them in the scenarios.

Okay, thanks. And then just on operating margins, you pointed to operating margins closer to the lower end of your initial guidance range of down 50 to 150 basis points for the year. Can you discuss the puts and takes impacting your margin performance in the second half?

When you look at the margin, really things are happening as expected, I would say. So after Q1, which was not coming as a surprise to us, We said from now on we're going to see an improvement of the margin trajectory. We knew that inflation would still be there, you know, for the rest of the year, although in the second part of the year we're going to be facing comparison where inflation was starting to kick in, so that's going to have some impact. But we knew that a number of other headwinds would start to abate, and here I'm talking about the disruption of the supply chain and, you know, among other things, things connected with air freight. The cost attached to the launch of Luma, the fact that not everything was optimal, so we started to see improvement in Q2 as expected, and we're going to continue to see improvement in the rest of the year. And then what we see playing in Q2 that we expect to see playing in the rest of the year are the fundamental positive drivers that we have for our margin. First of all, the fact that high-cost growth is having a positive impact on our margin. We said it in the beginning, we expect a positive contribution on margin evolution for the year from the heat northern business. Remember, we have a higher gross margin rate on our consumable for ICOs, so as we are growing ICOs, that is having a positive impact. There is now, when it comes to our smoke-free business, another driver that is positioning for our margin, which is Zin and Zin in the U.S., which is also accretive to the margin. You don't see it in the organic reporting so far, but it's going to start to kick in in Q4, and we expect to have another nice positive. And then the third element that I think you see, of course, nicely in Q2 is is our pricing power. We see today very clearly on combustible, we have some headwinds that are temporary coming from Germany and Japan on heat not burn, but we retain pricing power which is positive for the long term. And these are good elements. Of course, in front of that, we will keep investing and making sure that we are maximizing the growth potential. But that's really what is behind the margin development for the year. Now, on top of it, and I think we've been trying that during this quarter, we have the development of businesses that are coming with lower margin because we are buying to sell parties. And that is a different margin dynamic. And also, these businesses which we called below V1, which is, in fact, with reduced excise duty in Indonesia that is coming with lower margins. It's more a technical effect, I would say. And as mentioned, without that, we would have been, in fact, in the middle of the bracket that we gave the 50 to 150 negatives. And again, this is not reflecting the positive contribution for ZIM. So I would say, as a summary, things are happening as expected, and we start to see the fact that we have, on the long term, some fundamental positive driver for our margin that I summarized.

Thank you. That's very helpful. Thank you.

We will take our next question from Vivian Azar with TD Cowan. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning. I wanted to follow up on the commentary on then certainly consistent with the very robust trends that we're seeing. In the Nielsen scanner data, accelerating growth, strong market share gains. You've spoken in the past about the opportunity to offer some incremental investment to that business unit. to expand the sales force, improve distribution, and drive velocity. Can you just talk to us about where you are in that assessment time horizon for Zin, please? Thank you.

Sure, Viviane. Yeah, Zin is, of course, I mean, we knew that the brand was great. I think we are seeing something that is above our initial expectation, to be very clear, for the time being, at the time of the acquisition of Swedish Match. There is clearly a growing awareness of this category. We see a lot of polyusage. So you have a percentage that is fully converted by the lot of polyusage. We talk about people discovering that they can enjoy their nicotine in moments where they cannot enjoy whether their combustible cigarette or other ineligible product that is certainly playing. I think there is a very positive lifestyle element around the development in the U.S. that is gathering momentum. So that is, I think, explaining the success of Zene that is the icon of the category and, of course, taking today the lion's share of the growth of this nicotine pouch progression in the U.S. Now, that is very good news, of course, because that means that We have a very dynamic business in the U.S. To be very clear, it's not marginal at the group level, so you will see and you already see in the performance the impact of this Zim U.S. performance, so that's great to have another driver for our smoke-free performance and globally for the financial performance of the company. But it's setting the scene very well for ICOs because on top of what is successful, we're going to be able to build a very efficient commercial engine. You said it, increased sales force. We're in the making of that. It's happening progressively. It's, of course, going to help both Zin and ICOs. But that also bodes very well for our capacity to develop ICOS successfully in the future in the US. We're going to have a convergence of strength between Zene and ICOS. So to be very clear, we haven't been, you know, suddenly increasing at that stage by several hundred people . It's happening gradually as we build the capacity for ICOS starting Q2 next year. There is other investment that we are doing in our digital capacity and the digital commercial engine. Again, just the beginning, so I don't think it is really today behind the goal that we see behind Zyn, but these are additional strengths and capacity. And again, I think we are very excited about the amazing teams that ICOS and Zyn can be in the future in the U.S.

That's really helpful. Thank you for that. And then just moving to the wellness and healthcare segment for my second question, please. You know, understanding some of the challenges around the clinical trial, I was wondering if you could just comment on your aspiration to deliver the balance sheet post the Swedish match transaction. versus the potential need for incremental M&A as you think about, you know, an ultimate $1 billion revenue target, understanding that you've pushed out the date for that. Thank you.

Yeah, I want to be very clear. I mean, the focus is on deleveraging the balance sheet. We are focusing on extracting the great potential that we have in our smoke-free business. I mentioned ICOS and Zyn together. We certainly want to grow Viv as well, but I think there is so much potential in ICOS and Zyn that it's, of course, the key focus today. And we are spending our time and energy on maximizing the potential there, and that's going to generate deleveraging. So the time today is not for us to think about, I would say, structural move on M&A in other spaces, we are very much focused on optimizing these great potentials that we have in our smoke-free business today.

Thank you.

Thank you.

We will take our next question from Shravdran with Barclays. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning. Hi, Gaurav. Hi. A question on Zin in the U.S. So the volumes are coming in much ahead of where I think consensus is where we were. We also know that U.S. cigarette volumes have persisted at very weak rates despite easy comps. So what do you think is the cannibalization rate of Zin on U.S. cigarettes today? And as you project out ICOS growth over the next seven years, if this cannibalization is higher than what is thought of, then does it mean that the cigarette universe is smaller, which implies that the high-cost opportunity is smaller?

It's an excellent question. I believe, first of all, I'm not going to give a precise answer, as you can imagine. I believe that there is probably some cannibalization. For the reason I mentioned, we see behaviors developing of people that probably are or were combustible users and they discovered that they can enjoy the nicotine in a different manner with certainly positive perception on when they can do it and the impact on them. Now, I'm not able to tell you whether this is this is something very material. So I don't have any data at that stage. And I'm sure we'll try to elaborate on the ZIN driver on the 28th of September. But at that stage, I'm not able to share with you any hard data on how it's materializing. Frankly, I don't think that this is going to be really relevant for ICOS because maybe in a kind of super marginal manner. But here we talk about with ICOS, smokers who want to enjoy, when they are still enjoying today, a combustible cigarette, a different product that is mimicking very closely their pleasure with clearly personal benefit on their health, but also on their lifestyle. So I don't see the zine moment. as something that is going to compete with ICOS in a meaningful manner. So I think that that's not something that we see as a risk to undermine ICOS potential in the future.

Sure, thank you. And the second question I have is on this EU heated tobacco flavor ban. And you mentioned that there could be some volatility. Now the experience in California has been pretty bad for the menthol cigarette ban. and that only 70% of the menthol smokers seem to have been retained in the cigarette market. Is there any precedence of a flavored heated tobacco ban anywhere, which helps you form the view that the impact will be quite minimal?

Yes, there is, Gaurav. I will take two examples. One in Europe, when there was the flavor ban in May, where it had minimal impact on the combustible business, very, very small. So that's one illustration. And the other one is actually, because here we talk about, you know, growing product. The other one here is the ban on flavor in California that impacted Zene at the end of 2022. And there was a few weeks with a bleep on the volume, and then the momentum came back, you know, on non-flavored product, actually with even more intensity, and the bleep has been swallowed, and you don't see today any impact of this ban. So I think here you have two element experiences that show that this is having minimum impact. And again, we're comparing in California with growing category, which maybe is more appropriate. But referring to combustible in Europe in May 2020, the impact was de minimis.

Okay, sure. Thank you so much. Thank you.

We will take our next question from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

All right. Thank you. Hi, Emmanuel. Good morning, Bonnie.

Hi.

circle back to your guidance with just maybe a quick follow-on question. You know, your full year guidance implies, I guess, more riding at Q4. So just hoping you could help us understand, you know, maybe your level of conviction and or visibility that your business really will strengthen so much later this year. And then I know it's early and I'm don't expect you to guide next year, but is there anything we should think about that you're investing in this year that really could position you for even greater growth, you know, next year and beyond?

Yeah, so, Bonnie, trying to be back on H2, I think you see it already in Q2. I mean, the momentum behind ICOS is there. We see it 1.4, we estimate 1.4 million User growth in Q2, that's an excellent number. We see in-market sales going up. We know that there is seasonality, but it doesn't mean that the consumer of tech is going to decrease. There is more launch of Illuma and some of them that happen in the end of H1 that is going to contribute as well in the second part of the year. So we see very robust momentum there. We see the work that we've been doing, and as we said, you know, the highest intensity of price increase has happened in Q2. It's going to be lower in H2, and we've been defending our market share well in a market that is resilient. And, you know, we may discuss why CC is so resilient, but the fact is that combustible is proving to be resilient in many geographies. And then there is a ZIN moment, clearly the ZIN momentum, which, you know, we're not going to keep growing at 50%, of course, but clearly we expect momentum to continue super nicely on ZIN and starting to fall, that will also contribute to the organic growth, but in any case, it's going to fully contribute to adjusted EPS growth, excluding Forex. So all that, you know, gives us the opportunity confident that we are set for a very, very good and very strong H2 in terms of performance. Now, when we look towards 2024, we believe that the growth drivers are going to stay the same. So, ICOS with, of course, a launch in Q2 in the U.S., but let's be clear, it's going to be the beginning. So, It's not going to immediately have a huge impact. It's going to be a ramp-up as we explain. But there will be a number of countries where Illuma will be fully delivering. Look at Japan. That's quite interesting what happened in Japan. In fact, we've seen kind of another acceleration on market share and volume one year after the launch of Illuma. So it's not as if the whole positive impact was happening in the first in the first weeks, I would say take some time to create the awareness, the understanding, and the positive appreciation. And then we're gonna have ZIN and nicotine pouches. ZIN, first of all, starting in the U.S., but a number of exciting launch outside the U.S. as well. So that is boiling well for 2024, but of course, it's premature to talk about 24 and we'll give guidance in due course.

Okay, that all makes sense and helpful. And then I just, you know, for my second question, I was, you know, hoping for some more color on Japan. And, you know, it looks like your shipment volume was really strong in the quarter, and then your market share has increased nicely. Excuse me. So could you talk through key drivers of this? And then I believe VAT is cutting their prices on Glow Hyper starting in August. So could you talk through the current competitive environment and then maybe how you expect it might change in light of these actions, as well as how you may need to respond, if at all.

Thank you. Japan, of course, is a matter of great satisfaction. I was alluding to the fact that one year after the launch of Illuma, we see a further acceleration of our market share. We are now above 26%. As I said, that shows that the brand keeps doing inroads, converting more people, making a big difference versus competition. We've seen our capture share of the growth of the category that's going to grow increasing. We have a two-tier strategy between Terria and Sentia that is proving to be very efficient. The premium range, Terria, with a lot of innovation, great flavor experience. And then we have Sentia, which is, of course, at the lower level in terms of positioning. But with these two, I would say, range, we managed to really reach the broadest possible number of Illuma users. And that's clearly showing some great success. We are back in Japan to see freight progressively, so that was expected. Last year, the shipments were lower than the consumer of tech, and this year, that is, of course, we're going back to the normal situation. That was absolutely planned. And we see, indeed, competition, while trying to fight, they see the category that keeps having a lot of traction and gaining share. They are fighting to keep growing when Illuma is clearly doing well. And so far, they believe that their way forward is to come with cheaper consumables. That's, of course, their decision. I won't comment on that. It's clear that despite that, we managed to grow the share. But it's good to see that there is a clear growing commitment from the whole industry behind the category in Japan.

All right.

Thank you again.

Thank you, Bonnie.

We will take our next question from Matt Smith with Stifel. Your line is open.

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the pacing of the rollout of Illuma to 50 markets from the 23 markets where it's available today. Do you expect that to be fairly evenly spread across the second half? And could you talk about the rollout or the expansion, the impact on your operating margin in the second half as well as your gross margin?

Yeah, Matt. So that would be a progressive dispute for me. I mean, there will be events in Q3 and Q4 of launch of Illumine in a number of countries. It's difficult for me to tell you whether it's evenly spread because I would have no policy to do that depending on the the size of each market, but it's going to be relatively well-spread. Let's be clear, we have already two-thirds of the high-cost volumes that are exposed or benefit from Illumat's presence. It's not marginal, but a big part of it has already been done. And as we said, you know, at the beginning of Illuma, we were not fully optimized on the product, on the productivity. It doesn't mean that everything will be done at the end of the year, but we expect to certainly see an acceleration of productivity, reduction in the weight in the second part of the year, and that will have a positive impact on margin evolution, absolutely in line with what I explained, a number of Edwin that are receding. in line with expectation. That's really what you can expect for a new mine in the second part of the year.

Thank you for that. If I could ask a follow-up question on the combustible performance. It's been stronger in terms of both volume and organic revenue contribution. You've made a couple of comments about the demand environment holding up better than your expectation relative to the elevated pricing. Can you talk about the factors that are allowing the consumers to hold up elasticity better than your expectations? Do you expect that to continue now that you're going to lapse some pricing action?

Look, so far I think that we've seen that pricing up doesn't mean that the consumer is going away. I'm not able to tell you how it's going to further evolve in the future. I think what we see globally on the combustible market is, first of all, a few markets where, because of the demographic, we see the consumption of combustible going up. I could certainly mention India, probably Egypt, Turkey, probably Vietnam, even if it's not a big market for us, where we see combustible business going up. The resilience is also coming from a number of markets where there is a ban on smoke-free products. So, of course, that is to some extent protecting the combustible business. As you know, that's really not something that we like. We think that it's a big mistake. But that is probably providing some resilience to the category overall. So that would be my analysis on combustible.

Thank you for that, Emmanuel. I'll pass it on. Thank you, Matt.

We'll take our next question from Owen Bennett with Jeff Rees. Your line is now open.

Afternoon, Emmanuel. Hope you are well. Hi, Owen. Thank you. So related to heated competitive dynamics, so all three of your major tobacco peers now appear to be in a better spot, at least versus the past, with regard to product offerings, at least, and money they're investing. So to this, I was just wondering if you could comment on IPOS trends in some of the more competitive heated markets where all three of your major peers now have a presence, so like to Italy, for example. So how is IPOS shareholding up? Is Illuma having less traction in these markets than others? Are you seeing trial of other brands and consumers coming back to IPOS? Thank you.

Actually, you may have seen that our share of the category has remained stable in Q2 at around 75%. So it shows that indeed there is increased competition, but the quality of ICOS and notably ILUMA, but not just ILUMA, the overall ICOS proposition is allowing us to, even if we are more premium, to maintain our share of the category, which is very good news. Here I'm talking about volume. You can imagine in terms of value that is even higher. Now, let's be clear. Since the beginning, we knew and I can say we were hoping for the whole industry to embrace Eat Not Burn as the category of the future for inalienable nicotine product. And it's great to see a growing commitment from all the players behind that. So no doubt that they will come with innovation. Ourself, as you can imagine, we're going to continue to innovate as well. And we will see certainly innovation and maybe new things coming in the future. Now, after six, seven, almost eight years of launch of ICOS, I think in terms of franchise, in terms of impact, in terms of strength, in terms of brand power, I think we are really second to none, and we made a clear gap and differential. And I think that this is exactly what we did with Marlboro in the past, which, you know, Marlboro was a superior product and recognized for the brand that was unique. But on top of that, we managed to create a unique brand that was extremely appealing. And I think with IQOS, that's what we are repeating today. So IQOS products are clearly better, recognized as such. It's a different customer experience. But then the Icos brand is also iconic, and people are seeing that as part of lifestyle and product they want to associate themselves with, which is a recipe for long-term success.

Cool. Thank you, sir. I appreciate it.

Thank you, Owen.

And we will take our final question from Jared Dings with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

Hi, guys. So you talked about the ability to use sea freight finally to supply Japan, you know, as you progress throughout Q2. Would you be able to confirm that you're no longer capacity constrained on the terrain sticks?

Yes, so we can confirm that for the market where we've been launching today, we have no constraint, and therefore that's the reason why we've been able to move to sea freight. Now, there is still a ramp-up for the remaining market that do not have ILLUMA today, and this ramp-up is, of course, accompanying the growing capacity. So it doesn't mean that today we could serve, you know, on the 1st of July, 100% of all the market, high-cost market, with Illuma consumable, but we have no longer pressure restriction and the fact that we are back to sea freight, and we have a plan to accompany the growth of the remaining markets in the coming months.

Got it. And maybe just to follow up on that. So, you know, you guys did call out Europe with ICO saw some further negative inventory move in Q2. Should we expect that to reverse in H2? Because actually it's been, you know, on the whole in H1, it's been somewhat sizable, the negative inventory.

Yes. Sure. In fact, that, you know, Japan was finishing with lower shipment volume than consumer of take in 2022. That has been reversing in 2023. And Europe went the other way around. Remember, we had to load because of uncertainty on availability of product and energy supply in the manufacturing site. And that was expected that the catch-up has been happening mostly in Q1, but still a little bit in Q2. And now we expect to move to normal pattern of shipment versus consumer of tech or in-market sales. And therefore, we expect to have a strong H2 pattern. both in terms of shipment progression and in market sales in Europe. Back to normal.

That's clear. And if I can just follow up, just one last one. On Russia, given the news last week or this week, just can you give an update on if that business is fully ring-fenced at this point?

Look, on Russia, we have nothing new to say. We've been explaining in the past communication that the situation was complex. There is no new element. I'm not going to comment on the situation of companies that I know nothing about. And we have nothing new to report on Russia at that stage.

Maybe just in terms of... supply, like Russia's not supplying, you know, any neighboring markets at this point, right?

Well, we are, as you can imagine, complying with all regulation, restriction, sanction today, and we are obviously fully compliant.

Perfect. Thank you.

Thank you.

It appears we have no further questions on the line at this time. I will turn the program back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.

Thank you. That concludes our call today. Thank you again for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the investor relations team. Have a great day.

Talk to you soon. Thank you. Bye.

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time, and have a wonderful day.