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spk08: of the Midland Basin. On slide number 10, again, long-term total return outperformance. Pioneer's legacy Midland Basin position has been the foundation of the company since its founding 25 years ago, has been a major contributor to our success. Pioneer has outperformed large-cap peers in U.S. majors over the previous three 10- and 20-year periods, with returns over the 20-year period exceeding the peer group by nearly 80%. Our deep inventory, decades of development experience, and consistent performance positions pioneer to outperform for years to come. I'll now turn it over to Rich. Thanks, Scott.
spk13: Good morning, everybody. I'm going to start on slide 11, where you can see that we are reiterating our plan for 2022 with full-year production and capital guidance at the same levels we announced in February. Based on the midpoints of both capital and production guidance and current strip pricing, We expect this plan to generate greater than $12.5 billion of operating cash flow, which results in more than $9 billion of forecasted free cash flow for 2022. This represents an increase of approximately $2 billion in free cash flow since our last update in February. Consistent with our investment framework, we are modestly growing production this year with a reinvestment rate of less than 30%, returning over 80% of our free cash flow back to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. Our average activity level for the year remains unchanged. We plan to run between 22 and 24 drilling rigs and approximately six frac fleets, of which two of those are simul-frac fleets. This activity results in placing roughly 475 to 505 new wells on production during the year. As we outlined last week, we are temporarily adding a frac fleet during the second quarter to mitigate the sand disruption that we experienced during the latter part of the first quarter. This will increase second quarter capital which is expected to be our highest capital spend quarter of the year. Assuming current inflationary pressures persist, we would expect our capital to migrate towards the upper half of our full year capital budget of 3.3 to 3.6 billion, primarily driven by higher steel and diesel prices. Despite these inflationary pressures, the improved operating cash flow more than offsets these increases given the strong commodity price outlook. Thanks to the continued hard work of our teams across the company, Pioneer has established a track record of continued operational improvement as demonstrated on slide 12. These operational efficiencies are helping to dampen the effects of inflation in 2022. One contributing factor to our efficiency gains is our history of consistently increasing our average lateral length, driving drilling and completion costs per foot lower. Looking to the future, we expect Further lateral feet gains as we add more 15,000-foot laterals to our program. In 2022, we expect to place approximately 50 wells with 15,000-foot laterals on production, with that well count increasing to over 100 wells that are longer than 15,000 feet in 2023. Additionally, you can see from the graph on the right, we have nearly doubled our completed feet per day since 2018, and we've consistently outperformed peers on a completed feet per day basis. The gap with peers has even further widened with the deployment of two Simulfrac fleets in 2021, and we have the goal of adding a third Simulfrac fleet later this year or early next year. Turning to slide 13, Pioneer continues to have the best-in-class cash margins. You can see on the left chart that Pioneer maintained the highest realized price per BOE amongst our peers in 2021, which demonstrates the great work by our marketing team and the value of our oil-weighted production. Looking to the right chart, We additionally maintain best-in-class cash costs in 2021, resulting from the combination of our highly efficient operations, low corporate overhead, and inexpensive borrowing rates. This combination of high revenue and low cost translates into peer-leading margins, the strong corporate returns that Scott discussed, and significant free cash flow generation as demonstrated by our Q1 results. Turning to slide 14, I think this slide fits nicely with the prior slide, highlighting that the combination of our peer-leading margins and our efficient capital program generate best-in-class free cash flow per BOE. Most importantly, though, is that it's sustainable for decades, given Pyron's extensive inventory depth with a low break-even cost. With that, I'm going to turn it over to Neil.
spk09: Thank you, Rich. Turning to slide 15, the graph on the right demonstrates the strength of our balance sheet, highlighting the combination of our low-leverage and peer-leading average coupon rate. This financial discipline supports our strong cash margins, robust corporate returns, and strong free cash flow profile. Maintaining this fortress-like balance sheet provides Pioneer the financial flexibility for opportunistic share repurchases, supplementing our peer-leading dividend program. Turning to the next page, this is one of my favorite slides in the deck. We believe our high-quality inventory, efficient operations and best-in-class cash margins are key drivers to our strong corporate returns. When looking across the broader S&P 500, Pioneer's projected ROCE exceeds all other sectors within the S&P 500, yet trades at a discounted valuation relative to these various sectors. We believe this combination of market-leading ROCE and discounted valuation makes Pioneer a compelling investment opportunity when compared to the broader market. I'll now turn it over back to Scott.
spk08: Thank you, Neal. Slide number 17. Late last year, we published our updated 2021 sustainability and climate risk reports, which outlined our leading ESG strategies, including the ones you see on this slide. Our focus on ESG has established Pioneer as a leader in the industry, which continues to be reflected by many third-party rating agencies. While the initiatives to date are some of the best in our sector, we are working on many more that we will highlight in our updated sustainability and climate risk reports later this year. On slide number 18, Pioneer is focused on maintaining one of the lowest Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions intensities out of our peers. As seen in this graph, the Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity reduction targets of our peers are significantly higher than Pioneer. Our commitment is demonstrated through 2030 emissions intensity goals, representing one of the strongest emission reduction targets in the industry. On slide number 19, again, this is one of the favorite charts by several long-term shareholders. Pioneer is producing some of the lowest emission barrels in the world, helping to supply the world with affordable energy while minimizing emissions per barrel produced, combined with low maintenance break-even oil price of $30 per barrel, Our production remains resilient, and we expect our products to have a place in the global market for a very, very long time. Slide number 20, again, summarizes the fact that Pioneer is committed to driving value and returning capital for our shareholders. We'll now open it up for Q&A.
spk04: Ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please do so by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. Keep in mind, if you are using a speakerphone, make sure your mute function is released so that CINAHL can reach our equipment. Once again, star one for questions. We will begin with Janine Wei with Barclays.
spk00: Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking our questions. Good morning, Janine. Good morning, Scott. Our first question is maybe on inflation because it's obviously top of mind. We just want to kind of hit on the maybe medium-term implications of all this. your 0% to 5% medium-term growth plan, that requires adding a modest amount of activity every year. And so can you talk about your latest take on how the current service, supply, labor markets, et cetera, how that tightness is really causing you to either think differently about contracting next year or just overall implications for 2023? It sounds like from peers that people are just getting a lot Earlier start to 23, and it sounds like EMPs are starting to term up deals longer. Thank you.
spk13: Yeah, Janine, I think you're exactly right. I think us, like others, are starting to focus on 23, and we look at our contracting strategy as such that we already have a lot of our services locked in for 23, but we are looking at those services that aren't locked in to make sure that we've got Ample supply, we're not concerned about it, but it is something that we want to start earlier this year than maybe in years past, just given the inflationary pressure that's out there. I think most of the inflation that we're seeing is really on steel and diesel, as I mentioned. I think as we think about our 0% to 5%, also it's adding one to two rigs per year. So it's a modest amount of activity increases, and hopefully with efficiency gains we can minimize what we have to add just by getting more efficient on the work that we're doing. So that's really the key things that we're focused on as we think about 23 and the program, but it hasn't changed our thought process in terms of growing at around 5% for 2023. Okay, great.
spk00: And then maybe hitting on cash returns, which is clearly very attractive for Pioneer. You've framed your buybacks as being opportunistic. We've noticed that they've been consistent for the past two quarters now at this $250 million range. Is that just a coincidence that Q1 was the same level as Q4, or should we kind of think about that level as being a minimum on a quarterly basis?
spk08: Yeah, Janine, we'll continue to buy shares on a quarterly basis as our balance sheet is strengthened. Our long-term objective is to continue to reduce the share count, and we have the balance sheet and the authorization to repurchase a significant amount of stock opportunistically. So that will be the continued strategy.
spk00: Perfect. Thank you.
spk05: Sure.
spk04: Now moving to your next question, which will come from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.
spk07: Yeah, thanks so much. And great dividend distribution here this quarter. Scott, I just want to start with a macro question and get your perspective on the Permian specifically, which is given the bottlenecks that exist, whether it's around natural gas or pressure pumping, how much of a current strain is that going to be in terms of the Permian broadly growing, and as you think about exit-to-exit U.S. production, there's been a wide range of numbers thrown out there from half a million barrels a day to over a million barrels a day. Where do you fit within that range for oil?
spk08: Yeah, Neil, I've always been probably toward the $500,000 to $600,000, and what's interesting, if you look at EIA data, they publish now in January and February, and We've had several months now just flat production. So the rig count, as you know, has moved up several months ago. And the rig count in the Permian in the U.S., we should have already seen some production growth. And so I think too many flint tank firms are way too high on U.S. production. And then you put on top of it what's happening now in regard to labor constraints, frack fleet constraints, inflation constraints. I just think it's going to be tough to hit some of the numbers. So it makes me even more bullish about some of the oil price numbers that are out there.
spk07: All right, great. And then, Scott, would love your perspective on the natural gas takeaway situation in the Permian. It seems like a resolvable problem, but it could get a little tight here in 23. So how do you see the fix here? How do you see Pioneer positioned? to mitigate some of those risks.
spk08: Yeah, there's a good... Rusty Brazil always puts out a good morning briefing for the people that don't have access to it. It summarizes all the takeaways in today's report. There's two large compression deals that are adding, I think, a half a B a day and $650 million a day. That'll be on toward the third, fourth quarter of 23. That'll help the situation. And then there's three pipelines that are vying for two BCF each that are vying for it to come on in early 2024. And so it's going to get solved. I'm not really concerned, and Pioneer will obviously participate, obviously, in some of those upgrades and also in one of those three pipelines. So I think it will be resolved fairly quickly, and then we'll have room to add more pipelines about every two, two-and-a-half years going forward. So not really concerned, and the problem will get solved fairly quickly.
spk06: Thank you, sir.
spk05: Now we'll hear from John Freeman with Raymond James.
spk14: Good morning, guys. Hey, John. Just a follow-up on Janine's question on the cost inflation. You know, Rich, you said that y'all had a lot of the budget that's already sort of locked in for 23, just the nature of how y'all source your materials and services. I know going into this year, about 50% of your CapEx budget was locked in Can you give me a sense of just at this point, I guess, both for the rest of 22, how much do you view as sort of locked in versus exposed to inflation? And then sort of the same question for 23.
spk13: Yeah, John, I'd say we're probably right around 60% that we're locked in now for all of 22. And really the biggest items that are still subject to inflation are steel, diesel, chemicals, and to a much smaller extent, sand. So those are the key items where we'll face some potential for incremental inflation. When you look at 23, I'd say we're probably locked in on 25% to 30%, being mostly on the drilling side and on sand supply, because we've locked that in way in advance. But a lot of the other ones we have, contracts such that we're assured supply, it still could be subject to some inflation, but we're assured this applies. I'm not worried about the execution of the program, but we still got to, you know, some of it may be subject to inflation. That's not that we've locked out of or locked in for 2022. So hopefully that helps.
spk14: That does. Thanks. And then looking at the 15,000 foot laterals, which, you know, you mentioned there'll be 50 this year and a hundred next year. So just sort of as a percentage of your total activity, you know, it's about 10% this year and I guess kind of closer to 20% next year. Can you, Give us kind of an idea of how much of your inventory is applicable for these kind of extra long laterals, or maybe just that differently, how large a percentage of your drilling activity would it be reasonable to assume if I sort of look out four or five years?
spk13: Yeah, we've got, I think we've talked about a thousand locations that we've identified, including with land trades and small acquisitions of incremental working interests or just extensions to our acreage. out there, we're hoping to continue to add to that because it's the capital efficiency of getting that 15% reduction in drilling and completion costs on a per foot basis is important. So we're gonna go to the 100 in 2023. I would expect it will be 100 to 150 in future programs. So it's in that, like you said, 20 to 25% of our program will be those longer laterals for the foreseeable next five to seven years probably.
spk14: Great. Thanks, Rich. Appreciate it. Sure.
spk04: Now moving to our next question, and that will come from Charles Mead with Johnson Rice.
spk02: Good morning, Scott, and to the rest of the Pioneer team there. Rich, maybe this is a question for you. It's about the spot frack fleet that you picked up. I have no doubt that as one of the you know, one of the big operators on the Midland Basin, you guys are able to get equipment to come to your location. But I wonder if you could just share with us a little bit what that process was like, you know, getting the spot crew, because most of the service company's messaging has been, you know, there are no spot crews available, especially right where you are. So... I wonder if you could just share what that was like as a means of delivering some insight about how tight the service market is and how that might carry into next year.
spk13: Yeah, Charles, I think it really was relatively easy to be transparent about it in the sense that one of the benefits of Pioneer that some of the other operators in the basin have is just our security of sand and diesel supply. was such that really a number of private companies, while they're tight, they still have availability if companies have sand and diesel and chemicals, and we have all that stuff lined up. And so it's really the ancillary services that go along with it that really were the benefit of Pioneer and allowed us to attract that spot fleet relatively easy. I think we had multiple choices. It was really a case of timing of when they could get there, and so the one we chose was because they could get there the quickest and that was really the defining thing that made it why that one came versus another one. But we could have had a couple of other ones on a spot basis if we needed it. But it's really about those other supplies, having those available that really drove the ability to get a spot fleet.
spk02: That's interesting detail. Thank you for that. And then one other question, if I could ask, can you remind us what, this is with respect to the convertible notes you guys have out there, can you remind us what your posture is with respect to those, you know, in the context of the overall, you know, share buyback and delivering and where that sits in your stack and what your plans are?
spk09: Hey, Charles, this is Neil. I mean, our expectation is similar to when we engaged in the convert and we spoke about it previously. It's our expectation to settle that in cash. You know, the free cash flow generation is strong. You know, we're paying out 80% through the dividend. We've got the remainder of that 20% that we utilize and place on the balance sheet of which we use a small percent or a certain amount to repurchase shares and do that opportunistically, Scott articulated earlier. So we'll be in a position to settle that with cash, and as we sit now, that's our intention.
spk02: Any time frame you'd want to communicate on that, Neil, or?
spk09: No, I mean, you know, we're not, the ability to even call it back is until May of 2023, and it matures in 2025. So, no, I think we'll view it as that time comes closer to see what those options are and what's the most economic and financial decision to make. But, again, reiterating it's our intention to put it in cash.
spk05: Thanks. And Bertrand Donis with Truist has the next question.
spk01: Hey, morning, guys. This might be just a little nuanced, but given your dividend payout is, you know, your yield's a little bit higher than the group, can you maybe talk about keeping it that high versus maybe hypothetically just a few percent above the group and pushing more buybacks? Just hypothetically, do you think of it as an output of your free cash flow or is it an intentional strategy to kind of show the market that you can push these yields to get stock appreciation?
spk08: Yes, the primary goal really is to attract dividend value income funds in the retail sector. And we've been spending a lot of time with both. That feels like is our market group that we're targeting. And now having the highest paying dividend in the S&P 500, it gives us a leg up on people that want dividends, especially going into an inflationary environment. So I think that we'll continue to attract more and more retail. We still have a very, very small retail sector in Pioneer. So we're focused on that retail sector, and we're focused on dividend funds. We are getting some growth funds to buy into the sector also, but that's where our focus is.
spk01: That makes sense. And then maybe just shifting gears on divestitures, I think as of the last update, you guys still had some non-core stuff you were going to get rid of. Maybe some of your peers have signaled that they're stepping away from the M&A market, at least large-scale stuff. Is that put a hold on divestitures, or are you just kind of willing to meet in the middle with potential buyers to get these products sold?
spk13: Yeah, I'd say we're still, you know, entertaining people that are coming to us on small acreage divestitures here and there that are, you know, what we'd call Tier 3 related acreage. So you'll see in first quarter we had, you know, some amount of those that we did. We'll continue to look at, you know, drill codes as an option as well. So I think we're still, you know, planning that they'll have a modest amount each year of divestitures that will happen that are, you know, non-strategic or Tier 3 type acreage that we can accelerate value on. But that's really the focus right now. Nothing of size.
spk06: That's it. Thanks, guys. Sure.
spk05: And now we'll take our next question.
spk04: That will come from Doug Legate with Bank of America.
spk03: Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Scott, I think in prior calls, you've talked about trying near having a 15-year inventory. And I realize you're using third-party data this morning, which shows more than 20 years. I'm just wondering if you could speak to that. Obviously, the micro backdrop has changed dramatically. Has your view of your sustainable inventory changed dramatically?
spk08: No, I think in a higher price environment, Doug, I mean, everybody's inventory goes up. But, you know, we've advertised over 15,000 locations. We're drilling 500 a year. So... All we've changed is instead of using greater than 15,000, we've said greater than 20 years. It could be 30 years, could be 25 years. It all depends a lot on what the oil price is. Also, we are looking at going into over the next two or three years, obviously testing some of the deeper zones. So you'll see us do that. We have another six zones we've advertised over the last few years. And so we have some gas and gas condensate zones, so you'll probably see us test some of those over the next couple years also. So there really hasn't been a change, just emphasizing instead of getting away from locations, we're focused more on greater than 20 years.
spk03: Okay, thank you for that. I just wanted to check the subtlety of the presentation. Scott, my follow-up is maybe for Rich or for Neil, but I want to ask you about the inflection of cash taxes. In this commodity environment, obviously, it's kind of a rounding error, perhaps, but nevertheless, a meaningful change in where you've been historically. So can you just give us an update with the steepness of the forward curve we have today? When do you anticipate that Prime Year will be in a full cash tax payment position? I mean, you know, rule of thumb with your current level of spending, what would that look like as a kind of go-forward guide?
spk09: Hey, Doug, it's Neil. Yeah, if you think about how we spoke about cash taxes last quarter, call our NOL balances approximately $6 billion at year-end 2021. We'll utilize the extent of that NOL balance for the most part through 2022. I think when I last spoke, I spoke of cash taxes. Of course, the oil price was lower, being about $150 to $200 million for the year. That's more of a $500 million number for the full year. So, you know, $500 million for the full year. Now, if you look at our guidance on cash taxes for this quarter, we'll start prepaying, so to speak, our estimated tax burden, full year tax burden. So we'll be paying that here this quarter and next quarter and again in the fourth quarter. But if you look at it in the fourth quarter, excuse me, in the full year in fullness, based on current strip prices, it's $500 million. Now, fast forward to 2023. looking at strip prices, you know, you're more in the range of let's call it $1.3 to $1.5 billion. Great stuff.
spk03: Appreciate the answers, guys. Thank you.
spk09: Very welcome, Doug.
spk05: Now we'll move to David Deckelbaum with Cowan.
spk11: Thanks, everyone, for taking my questions, and good morning. I just wanted to follow up and just confirm the added FRAC, fleet that's coming in in the second quarter. How long is that term? That's not staying the full year?
spk13: No, we're just doing a couple pads and then it'll be released. And so it's already on location and working.
spk11: And I guess I appreciate that. My follow-up would just be, Scott, I know when you presented in front of Congress, you discussed the changing in lead times now being 18 to 24 months for sort of long-term planning or planning around growth, which might have doubled or tripled from a few years ago. How is that changing, I guess, the way that you guys are approaching things now, whether it be contracting for services? And are you looking at anything on the vertical integration side to kind of alleviate some of that planning and procurement process?
spk08: No, I mean, Rich has already covered it all. I mean, I think it's obvious that based on comments from the three large service companies, you know, starting with Jeff Miller's comments that, you know, things are pretty much, even with John Lindsay at H&P, I mean, the frack fleets are pretty much used up. The good spec rigs are pretty much used up. And you can always do new builds, but you're going to pay significantly higher pricing. and you're going to have to sign three-year-type contracts. So I think in this world of returning capital to shareholders, I just don't see that happening. So really, I don't think the growth profile that EIA has and some of the other think tank firms, I think it's too aggressive over the next two years for U.S. oil production. And so Rich has already commented on some of the things that we're doing in regard to 22, 23, and 24 in regard to locking up service costs.
spk11: Appreciate the comments, Scott. Thanks, guys. Thanks.
spk04: And as a reminder, everyone, at Star 1, if you'd like to enter the queue for questions, we'll now move to Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.
spk10: Yeah, thanks. A couple things. One, you know, first on The conversation earlier on the budget, obviously with inflation, it's tending toward the higher end of the range. And also you all talked about, you know, sort of 5% growth cap as you think about 2023 and beyond. And just to clarify two things with that. Number one is, you know, adding, you know, a couple of rigs in the back half of this year to prepare for a 5% growth in 2023 in the budget at this point. Is that what, you know, gets you to say, you know, is part to the top end of the 22 spending?
spk13: Yeah, just for clarity, I mean, when we are building our capital program for 22, it's already forecasting what we're going to do for 2023, so that was already built into our original guidance range, and so of what activity we need to accomplish the 5% growth for 23. So that's really built into what we've already laid out.
spk10: Okay, thank you for that. And then, Scott, you know, and a little bit, again, on the oil macro, obviously it's been the important driver here over the course of the last several years. several months. But what is your view of what the right mid-cycle oil price is right now? Where do you think, from a longer-term perspective, it should be? Obviously, right now, we're a little bit more heightened. And how does that play into your strategy in terms of being opportunistic on the buybacks?
spk08: Yeah, I mean, I think that's the big $64 question. I mean, as you know, the strip drops on down to $70 after five years. on WTI. In fact, it's below 70 after five years. There's got to be a lot more, I think, comfort that that strip is going to move up. I think it will long-term instead of just marching forward. So, you know, we still, I mean, we had a lot of negative items around the world with Chinese lockdown, inflation, and we still had over $100 oil over the last two or three weeks. So, And now we're seeing the potential ban on Russian crude and a phase-in between now and over the next six months into the end of the year from EU. So things are going to get tighter. I still think it's going to go higher. And we have to decide, obviously, the intrinsic value at various price stacks of the company and when to, obviously, opportunistically buy back the stock. So we have the firepower and the balance sheet to do it.
spk10: Right, and so I guess, you know, at this point, obviously, you know, with the oil buying back, I mean, certainly you've seen that opportunity. When you've seen kind of the moves in some of these, you know, E&P equities, including yourselves, you know, would you continue to buy into that? Or even though that you're bullish oil, you're going to wait for, you know, I guess pullbacks, you know, through the periods?
spk08: We have to realize we're already dispersing 80% of our framework is all back toward the dividends. So it's 80% of our cash flow is going to the dividend. And so we're looking for people that want stabilized dividends. So, I mean, over five years, you're going to get over half the value of the market cap of the company back as dividends. And so at least you got something. Whenever the next downturn is, which I hope it's not for a long time, you at least look back and say, I've got half my... stock price back in dividends, that you can do whatever you want to. And that's the big benefit of dividends versus buying back stock.
spk10: Right. Part of the total return to shareholders.
spk06: Appreciate that. Thank you. Exactly.
spk04: And now we'll take a question from Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research.
spk12: Good morning. I have a question around the dividend yield. It's almost a bit of a half-empty, half-full cup argument, which is to say you've laid a pretty compelling case around higher margins than peers, lower OPEX, longer inventory, a better geopolitical position in terms of pure play Texas, yet your peers have had their share prices bid up or their dividend yield bid down to significantly lower levels. So it begs the question, what are you guys being valued on? And if you're not getting full credit for dividends, would that lead you down the path to consider other cash return strategies?
spk08: You've got to realize, Bob, that we just announced the first unhedged paid dividend. And so we paid four quarters. It's barely creeped up. It was 6% last quarter. So ask me that question four quarters from now. If we're continuing at 12% to 13%, I think you'll see we should not be trading at 12%, 13% yield. But you've got to establish history. It's got to continue. So we're just now making the first. In fact, the payment's not going to be made until June. So let's get several quarters of payments in that 12% to 13% yield. and see if we continue to trade where we're at on a yield basis. Looking at majors, there's no reason why anybody should be buying a major oil company at a 4% to 5% yield versus buying Pioneer at a 12%, 13% yield. We're growing 5% a year at just as long as inventory, better ROCE. And so we have to reach out to that retail sector. We've got to reach out to all those dividend funds. And we just got out on the road for the first time in the last three to four weeks. So Give me about 12 months and we'll see where it ends up.
spk12: Yeah, I agree with your logic. And yeah, I think you'll prove correct with time. I think that's a good answer.
spk05: Thanks. And ladies and gentlemen, that's all the time we have for questions today.
spk04: I'll turn the call back over to Scott for any additional or closing remarks.
spk08: Again, thanks. We appreciate everybody's Q&A and look forward to the next quarter and seeing everybody out on the road. Again, thank you and everybody stay safe.
spk04: With that, ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude your conference for today. We do thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.
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