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Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Ferrari 2020 full year results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. For your information, this conference is being recorded. Now, I would like to hand the conference over to your speaker today. Nicoletta Russo, please go ahead.
Nicoletta Russo
Thank you, Andrea, and welcome to everyone who is joining us. There are two topics that we plan to cover today. First, the group's full year 2020 operating results, and then our full year 2021 guidance. In light of this, the duration of the call is expected to be around 60 minutes. Today's call will be hosted by the group chairman and acting CEO, Mr. John Elkin, and our group CFO, Mr. Antonio Pica-Picon. All relevant materials are available in the investor section of the Ferrari corporate website. At the end of the presentation, we will be available to answer your questions.
Andrea
Hi everyone, welcome to Datadog's demo for SREs. This will be a quick, high-level introduction to the Datadog platform tailored to SREs use cases. Datadog is a SaaS monitoring and security platform that unifies metrics, traces, logs, and other data from across the stack. What you're looking at here is a Datadog dashboard. This is a high level overview of your entire application where you can see how it's doing across all pillars of observability. This view is also totally customizable with simple drag and drop widgets, no coding required. You can see up top that we have our SLO widget highlighted. Not only is this a great reference point to ensure you're meeting your reliability goals, but it helps your SRE team ensure the entire organization is aligned on reliability initiatives. You can also see we're pulling data from our infrastructure, applications, logs, server lists, synthetics, as well as custom metrics such as furniture sales revenue, all in one single view. You can also keep an eye on your integrations in a dashboard like this. Datadog has over 450 vendor-backed integrations, including with most AWS, Azure, Google Cloud services, as well as Kubernetes, Kafka, Terraform, and much more. Once you set up the Datadog agent and any integrations you're using, Datadog provides several types of data visualizations. For instance, Datadog provides a high level view of your infrastructure. This host map is provided out of the box and gives you a bird's eye view of your hybrid or multi-cloud environment. All these hexagons are individual hosts currently color coded based on their CPU utilization and updated in real time. You can also slice and dice using tags like cloud provider, availability zone, and team as such. This way you can manage all your cloud providers on one screen. Tags propagate throughout the Datadog platform for easy and consistent querying of all your data. You can also use this view to see all your containers, since the Datadog agent automatically discovers new containers as they're spun up. Now, if you've gone from hosts to containers, you may have transitioned to microservices as well. To understand your increasingly distributed microservices architecture, we have the service map. The service map automatically maps all the services in your environment, both serverless and serverful. Your services are intelligently clustered based on how frequently they talk to one another. So even when you have hundreds of microservices, new engineers can still make sense of your systems. At a glance, I can see that one of our critical services, WebStore, has an alert on it. From here, I can immediately see which dependencies, both upstream and downstream, are also triggering alerts and then pull in the relevant teams. I can also immediately view related logs or traces with a click of a button. But let's take a deeper look into the WebStore service using Datadog's service overview. The service overview provides a unified view of a service health, from baseline metrics to more advanced capabilities like deployment tracking. We can see key performance metrics for our web store service, total requests, errors, and percentiles of latency. We can even scope these metrics down to specific code versions to compare requests and errors for each code deploy thanks to our deployment tracking capabilities. We can see that a certain version has led to an increase in errors in our code. So let's dive into the related logs to get a deeper understanding of the root cause behind these errors. With one click, we're directed to all the relevant error logs correlated to the WebStore service. And because everything is parsed on ingestion, we can find the logs we need by just clicking on filters instead of writing regular expression queries. So I don't have to wait for another team to get back to me or even write a query myself in order to surface the logs I need to troubleshoot the critical issue on the WebStore service. Now let's look at how easy we make it to understand millions of verbose and repetitive logs with our machine learning patterns. Patterns group all the related logs and surfaces the things that matter most. In this case, I can see that payments are being rejected because the API call rate is being exceeded, so we can prioritize that immediately. Another thing that sets Datadog's logging platform apart is logging without limits. With Datadog's logging without limits, you would have access to all your logs regardless of whether you paid to index them. You can use them to troubleshoot a live issue when it matters most, start indexing a new type of logs right away, or even rehydrate any logs from your archives when needed. Lastly, in the case of a live outage or emergency, you have LiveTail, which you see here. You can view all your logs live as they stream to the platform, again, regardless of whether you're indexing them or not. It's clear that there are a lot of potential things that can go wrong in a system. And we realize that alert fatigue is not only a frustrating experience for SREs, but it also causes you to lose trust in your alerting system. Datadog solves this by making sure that alerts are both specific and actionable. And the way we do that is by offering a number of different types of monitors, many of which are powered by machine learning capabilities such as anomaly detection. One powerful type of monitor is composite monitors, which allows you to create customizable combinations of symptoms into a single alert, thereby accurately identifying issues within your infrastructure and applications. Datadog also provides recommended monitors, which is a suite of curated alert queries and threshold for key infrastructure technologies like Consul, Kubernetes, Kafka, and more. These are pre-configured based on the expertise of our many technology partners, as well as the experience of thousands of our customers. With recommended monitors, you'll be able to start alerting on key monitoring data from your environment within minutes so you can focus your attention on growing your business. One other way Datadog allows you to make sure your users are having the best possible experience is with UX monitoring. Datadog Synthetics provides a single place to manage and view your entire testing suite. From here, you can view high-level results for all your tests and use facets to quickly sort through them. You can filter your tests by type, status, as well as environment, which allows you to quickly narrow them down to those running in production, dev, or staging. If you're looking to create a new test, you can do this from within this page as well. You can create a single API test to perform a single request, just like you can create multi-step API tests to chain together different requests. Now let's take a look at how easy it is to create an API test with Datadog. From here, you start by selecting the type of test, whether it's HTTP or a network test on your DNS or ICMP. For HTTP requests, all you have to do is pop in the URL, select the environment, and add any additional tags such as the service and resource. From here, you can set more advanced options such as defining assertions, choosing the location from which you'd like to run these tests, whether it's a private location or from one of our managed locations around the world, and finally choose the frequency as well as the alerting parameters, such as who should be alerted as well as the process to follow if an alert goes off. We've now looked at some of the ways Datadog allows you to stay on top of your systems. But with environment scaling so rapidly, we realized that it may be hard to keep track of everything that may potentially go wrong in your systems. This is where Watchdog steps in. Watchdog is like a newsfeed of everything unusual happening in your infrastructure and applications. It'll help you catch errors and latency findings that you didn't even know you should be watching. Anomalies that can happen while scaling increasingly distributed systems. Watchdog uses machine learning to automatically surface issues when your applications or cloud infrastructure is performing out of the norm with zero manual setup or configuration. It's a great starting point that many of our customers like to use to discover and begin solving problems. And not only will Watchdog point out anomalies, it will also show you a dependency map, related anomalies happening across your services, and it'll point out dashboards where you can find that anomalous data. So it surfaces everything in one place to quickly pinpoint root causes. And as you can see here, you can also enable monitors right from Watchdog, which allows you to surface issues and be notified about similar instances moving forward. To summarize, Datadog provides visibility all the way from your backend infrastructure to your application traces to your logs from across your systems. And to top it all off, it uses machine learning to always watch over your environment.
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Nicoletta Russo
Before we begin, let me remind you that any forward-looking statements we might make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the Safe Harbor Statement included on page two of today's presentation, and the call will be governed by this language. With that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. John Elkin.
John Elkin
Thank you, Nicoletta. Good morning and afternoon to all. I would like to start thanking all of my colleagues in Ferrari for the remarkable results in 2020, a testament to the strength of our business model and resilience of our core business. In fact, we exceeded full year guidance on all metrics in 2020. These results have been achieved factoring the impacts of COVID-19 on all of our activities. This environment gave us the opportunity to learn more about our strengths and weaknesses, which allowed us to further fortify our company for the future. 2020 has also been characterized by the successful digital unveiling of the Ferrari Portofino M, SF90 Spider, and 488 GT Modificata. Today, we have the most beautiful, most innovative, and widest product range in our history. I would like to highlight some of our achievements that we are particularly proud of. Back on Track, which is Ferrari's program to safeguard the health of our employees in a COVID-19 secured environment, which has become a reference in Italy and around the world. Equal salary certificate. In July, we were the first Italian company awarded in recognition of the same compensation amongst women and men for equivalent roles and jobs, testifying our commitment to create an inclusive and diverse working environment. And social responsibility in helping with different activities during this pandemic crisis. I'll just mention a few which we are particularly proud of. We launched with our clients a fundraising matching all of their donations to support the medical staff and the health system of our community in Maranello and surroundings. We joined forces with the Italian Institute of Technology to present the open source project a revolutionary low-cost and lightweight pulmonary ventilator. And lastly, during the seven weeks closure of the factory, we did not use any state aid program and continued to pay full salaries of all of our employees. 2020 was also a year of celebration. Our 1,000th Grand Prix, the highest number in Formula One ever reached. Our victories in the GT racing season. And we reached over 2.5 million visitors in our esports series. But our 2020 Formula One results reminded us that a great past doesn't equate to a great present or future. This painful reality both for ourselves and our fans is that from which we must restart with humility, focusing on what will make us competitive and ultimately lead to winning. As we enter into 2021, which Antonio will give you more details about, We continue to work on our product plan for this exciting decade ahead, adapting it to a fast evolving environment. Our journey to carbon neutrality will provide a wider framework for our future. We are working on a clear plan including Formula One, to become carbon neutral through actions taken directly and indirectly within this decade. We are optimistic about the opportunities ahead of us and look forward to sharing and discussing the future of Ferrari for this decade at our capital markets day in the first half of 2022.
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John Elkin
Now let me address the CEO succession. We have established as a board a search committee, which is responsible for a process to identify the right successor to Louis Camilleri. And we want to take the necessary time to find the best possible CEO for our company. On this note, I would like to express my most sincere thank you to Louis, who is listening on our call today, for his personal commitment as our CEO since 2018 and as a member of our board since 2015. His passion for Ferrari is and has been limitless. Under his leadership, the company has further affirmed its position as one of the world's greatest companies. Louis built a leadership team that is continuing to propel our company forward, as our results demonstrate, and for which I am personally grateful to him and to all of my colleagues at Ferrari. I now hand over the call to Antonio, who will review our full year 2020 results and 2021 guidance. Since our strategy remains unchanged and our execution of it is on track, he will also directly manage the Q&A session. I would like to thank you all and pass it over to Antonio.
Louis Camilleri
Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and good morning or afternoon to everyone who is joining us today. I start from page six, where you can see the highlights of 2020 results, which exceeded our latest guidance in these difficult times, driven by very strong fourth quarter results. This was achieved on the back of the strength of our core business, improved Formula One revenues, the cost containment actions deployed during the year, and a tailwind from foreign exchange compared to our projections. Our shipments in 2020 were 9,119 units, approximately 10% less than prior year, in line with our production planning. Group net revenues were 3 billion and 460 million euro, down 8.1% compared to prior year, driven by lower deliveries as well as lower Formula One and brand revenues. BDA came in at 1 billion and 143 million euro, down 10%, with a margin of 33%. It is worth noting that the EBITDA margin in our core business was better in 2019. EBIT was €716 million, down 21.9%, embedding higher DNA. Adjusted net profit was 534 million euro down 23.5% versus 2019 and resulting in an adjusted dilute DPS of 2.88 euro versus 3.71 of prior year. The adjusted figures reflected a tax benefit with no cash impact on 2020 as a result of the one-off partial step up of the trademark book value in accordance with Italian tax regulations. Industrial free cash flow for the year was 172 million euro. What you can't see in this chart are the fundamental dynamics underlying our business. We have recorded strong order intakes since summer 2020, fueled by the resumed commercial activities and the new product unveilings. As a result, on a yearly basis, we ended up with a net order intake very much in line with 2019, despite a very different environment, and the trend continued in January. The order book is at record level, up 22% versus last year, and covering the entire 2021 and beyond. Should we discount the effect of the production loss due to COVID-19, we would be up nearly 10%. Cancellations remained well within our average experience and were actually lowered in 2019. Residuals are holding up well on the back of the growth of pre-owned transaction volumes.
Susi Tibaldi
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Louis Camilleri
This happened notwithstanding the challenges and thanks to the effectiveness in reshaping the way we engage with customers through a mix of in-person and digital events. digital reviews and more exclusive gathering and test drives. We obviously owe a great lot to our dealers for this, who have been standing by us unabated even during the most difficult outburst of the pandemic in their respective countries. Page 7 shows the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic that mostly hit the second quarter of 2020 due to the seven-week production suspension and the temporary dealers' closure. The flexibility and adaptability that is inherent to our organization and the resilience of the order book underpinned a V-shaped recovery. Indeed, our Q4 was a record quarter in terms of volume, net revenues, and EBITDA, growing double-digit versus an already robust Q4 2019. Turning to page eight, you can see the details of the full year 2020 shipments, down 1,012 units, following the seven-week production suspension in the first half of 2020, and dealers' temporary closure due to the COVID-19 pandemic, partially offset by a gradual production recovery of roughly 500 units in the second half of the year. Sales of both V8 cylinder and V12 were down 10.3% and 9% respectively. During the year, despite the COVID-19 disruptions, we managed to deliver the Ferrari Monza SP1 and SP2 as originally scheduled. The V8 family continued the ramp-up phase, offsetting the special series of the 488 Pista family, which was approaching the end of its life cycle. The A12 GTS, whose deliveries commenced in the second quarter, enriched global distribution, while the Ferrari Portofino phased out ahead of the introduction of the Ferrari Portofino M in 2021. The deliveries of the SF90 Stradale started in Q4, following the industrialization delays experienced and then sold. In the same quarter, also the Ferrari Roma commenced deliveries. Yearly shipments were affected by our deliberate geographical location, based on the different stages of the life cycle of our model by region. As a result, EMEA and the rest of APAC were almost in line with prior year. America was down 19.8%, but showed a 14% upturn in Q4, thanks to the ramp-up of the 2019 models. Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan posted a decrease of 45.5% in the year, while grew triple-digit in Q4, thanks to the ramp-up of 2019 models and easy comparison versus prior year. As a reminder, we privileged deliveries in this region in the first nine months of 2019. Notwithstanding the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, we unveiled three new models in 2020, the Ferrari Portofino M, the SF90 Spider, and the limited edition truck car 488 GTE Modificata, which will hit the market in 2021. And I'm happy to announce that our portfolio will be further enriched by three new models unveiling this year. Turning to page 9, you can see here displayed the walk of our group net revenues for the full year that was down 8.9% at constant currency. Revenues from cars and spare parts were down 4.1% at constant currency. Such performance reflects the volume decline and their personalization, partially upset by the positive mixed price, mainly thanks to the Ferrari Monza SP1 and SP2. Personalization rate on cars and spare parts revenues was around 18%, while down in absolute terms given the volume contraction. Engines revenues were down 24%, mainly reflecting lower shipments to Maserati and revenues from the rental of engines to other Formula One racing teams. Revenues from sponsorship, commercial, and brand were down €150 million, significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a shortened number of Formula One races, as well as lower in-store traffic and museum visitors. Other revenues, down 19.3% at constant currency, were mainly impacted by reduced sports-related activities and the cancellation of the MotoGP at the Mugello race track. only partially obsessed by the first ever Formula One Grand Prix at our circuit. Currency, including translation and transaction impact, as well as foreign currency edges, which played a significant role, had a positive contribution of 32 million euro, mainly the US dollar.
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Louis Camilleri
Moving to page 10. Let me review the change in our EBIT, which was 716 million euro, down 21.9% or 25.3% at cost and currency, with EBIT margin at 20.7%. The negative variance at cost and currency remains mostly the COVID-19 impact on Formula One brand-related activities and engines phase, partially offset by the resilience of our core business. More precisely, volume drove a negative variance of €126 million due to previously mentioned reduced deliveries. Mixed price variance was positive for €130 million, thanks to the Ferrari Monza SP1 and SP2, and a richer product mix, and country mix in Q4, despite fewer FXXK EVO. This was partially upset by the lower contribution from personalization programs due to the decrease of shipments and the gradual phase-out of the 488 Pista family. Industrial costs, research, and development costs increased 38 million euro, mainly due to higher DNA, net of the benefit of technology related incentives recognizing the year. This also included the full cost of employees paid days of absence during the COVID-19 production and suspension. The DNA decreased 6 million euro, reflecting significant cost containment action, partly upset by Formula One racing activities. Other decreased 211 million euro due to the pandemic impact on the Formula One racing calendar, lower traffic from brand related activities, as well as engine sales to Maserati. The total net positive impact of currency was 38 million euro year on year. Turning to page 11, industrial free cash flow generation for the year was 172 million euro. The positive generation was driven by EBDA, partially offset by investment of €709 million to fuel our long-term product development, including over €60 million from the purchase of tracts of land contiguous to our facilities in Maranello. Neither the impact of IFRS 16 or our capital expenditure for 2020 were slightly lower than our guidance due to a slower spending cadence in the last quarter that we will make up in 2021. The capitalization ratio was approximately 38% for the year, basically in line with 2019. The adverse working capital impacts due primarily to the reversal of the Ferrari Monza ST1 and ST2 advances received in 2019, and higher product and raw material inventories to protect the supply chain in this complex month. Tax payments higher than last year, mainly as a result of the patent box mechanics. Medi-industrial debtors of the end of the year was €543 million compared to €337 million last year. During the year, a total worth of €130 million of shares were repurchased before the decision to temporarily suspend the program, and €212 million were distributed in dividends. With respect to the share repurchase program, It's important for you to know that we remain focused on rewarding our shareholders, and the Board of Directors will decide the best course of action as the year unfolds. At the end of 2020, total available liquidity, including undrawn credit lines for €700 million committed, was €2.62 billion. which compares with approximately €1,880,000,000 as of September 30th. As a reminder, an amount of €500 million was just used to reimburse the bond maturing in January. Moving to page 12, you can see the 2021 guidance, which targets a strong rebound versus 2020. With net revenues around €4.3 billion, And such target is predicated upon having trading conditions unaffected by further restrictions or impacts from the pandemic on our core business. Revenues from Formula One still discounting the known uncertainties on the calendar and reflecting a lower 2020 ranking. And brand activities still dealing with the COVID-19 challenges throughout 2021. Adjusted EBITDA between 1 billion and 450 million euro and 1 billion and 500 million euro, with approximate percentage margins between 33.7 and 34.9%. Adjusted EBIT between 970 million euro and 1 billion and 20 million euro, targeting an EBIT margin between 22.6 and 23.7%. This reflects the IRDNA, following the capex increase of most recent years, besides the mentioned challenges due to COVID-19. In addition, we expect operational and marketing expenses to gradually resume.
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Louis Camilleri
Adjusted diluted EPS between 4 and 420 euro per share, assuming approximately 20% tax rate. Industrial free cash flow in the region of €350 million. Our free cash flow reflects higher capex, which we expect to amount to around €800 million, with a slight catch-up compared to 2020, as already commented. Finally, it is worth noting that the guidance for 2021 rests on the assumption that the exchange rate will remain in line with the last part of 2020 for our most relevant currencies. The extraordinary conditions of 2020 affected all of us in many ways. What has not changed is the commitment and passion that we live and breath every day in Ferrari. 2021 guidance growth is an evidence of our unchanged ambitions. We clearly know that there is a lot of focus on 2022. On the one hand, the pandemic has clearly affected our plans. As disclosed, we have postponed some initiatives In addition, the pace of introduction of new emissions regulations all over the world has been accelerating. To have better clarity on our future, we also need to handle the uncertainties caused by COVID-19 impacting the development of our core business, our Formula One racing and brand-related activities, possibly lasting longer than originally expected. On the other hand, the inherent strength of our business model and resilience of our core business have proved their worth in this recent period, which gives us confidence in our ability to tackle challenges and possibly transform them into both opportunities. As our chairman just said, we have an exciting decade ahead, which we look forward to sharing and discussing when we meet for our Capital Market Day in 2022. With that said, I turn the call over to Nicoletta.
Nicoletta Russo
Thank you, Antonio. We are now ready to start the Q&A session. As a reminder, it will be managed by Antonio. Thank you, Andrea, to you.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you wish to cancel your request, please press the hash key. Our first question comes from the line of Michael Binetti from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Michael Binetti
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for all the detail. You know, I want to ask about the guidance first, I suppose. Look at the 2022 EBITDA that we talked about at the Capital Markets Day. You know, it had implied incremental margins of well over 50% relative to 2019 numbers. And then your 2021 guidance implies less than 40% incremental margins versus 2019. I'm wondering... what do you consider are the components that will leave incremental margins in 21 below the trajectory that we knew about?
Louis Camilleri
Thank you, Michael. This will not look that much at 2021 for the trajectory to 2022. This pretty much depends on the mix. We assume that the capital product mix, we assume that the capital market day As I said, we'll review. There was an expected significant growth between the two years. 2021, as of now, is back on the trajectory we had at the time we prepared the plan of September 18.
Michael Binetti
Let me ask you about that, I guess. If I just look at the bridges you just gave us, if I just back out the business losses that you showed us hard numbers for, in 2020 126 million volume and 211 million of lost revenues from formula one calendar activities and brand activities that would have put you at 1.48 billion of ebitda in 2020 which is the midpoint for that you guided us to for 2021 obviously you'll get some you'll get some car business back. And I know that the general theme of the capital markets day long-term plan was to keep growing the business and evolving the profitability. So I'm just, I'm wondering how much, I guess the nexus of the question is how much conservatism you feel like you need to bake in to the 2021 margin guidance today.
Louis Camilleri
I think there is some because 2021 is still affected by significant uncertainty. I mentioned some elements in the slides that you see. Cannot be more specific in terms of amounts, but clearly all of our business, including F1, have to some extent to deal with the uncertainty related to the development of the pandemic.
Michael Binetti
And then, you know, I know John, One last one I know John mentioned regarding a path to carbon neutrality and developing a wide framework. I thought that was a very interesting comment. Would you mind elaborating? Because it's a subject of much discussion among shareholders. Could you elaborate on what you think are the key high-level underpinnings to get there that we should think about as far as how Ferrari thinks about it?
Louis Camilleri
Yeah, I think I can speak on a qualitative basis. um despite we the fact that we are focused on the core business we also have other activities in our cost business is basically made of the carbon footprint of our product um f1 is very specific per se and brand related activities also have their own features so first of all we need to put all of that together and be able to compute the carbon footprint for the company company-wide, basically. And then, given the size of this footprint, we can put together a mix, initially at least, of actions to tackle the issue both with direct actions and with compensation. As I said, the plan is first to achieve carbon neutrality, sorry, carbon footprint certification, and then at that point we'll be probably ready to be more specific as to the action that we put in place to achieve what our chairman just mentioned, is the goal to become carbon neutral within the decade.
Michael Binetti
Okay, thank you very much, guys.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of John Murphy from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
John Murphy
Good afternoon, and because you mentioned Louie was listening, Louie, we hope you're doing well and miss you on many levels. Just a first question, and I think Michael's, you know, question on, you know, the 2021 guidance, I think it's very, very important to turn it up because I think we're all trying to figure out what the basis is to work off for our 2022 and beyond numbers because it still seems like there's some noise. and pressure on 2021. Is that kind of a fair statement to say, hey, 2021 is still a year that's got COVID noise, some incremental costs, and some other things that might not be the best way to think about building off of as a basis year for the trajectory in 2022 and beyond? Is that a fair statement?
Louis Camilleri
I'm not sure I got all the details of your question because the line is not very good. I understand you're asking about how 2021 may be informative as to the development of the results for 2022. Only partly, I would say, 2021 is mostly execution, assuming that COVID-19 allows us to do so, to execute well in alignment with our plans. 2022 already encompasses the expectation of the introduction of new models, and there is where we need to be more specific later on.
John Murphy
Okay. And then just a second question. You mentioned personalization was lower in 2020. I'm just curious, as you think about 2021 and a recovery and then beyond, do you think that personalization will be significantly additive to results going forward and was a little bit depressed in 2020 because of COVID?
Louis Camilleri
Okay, thank you for this question, John. I think we discussed a number of times in previous calls too. It's difficult to project personalizations because usually while the average does not move much throughout time, it is actually dependent on the mix of our products. We mentioned, I think, already in a couple of calls, the fact that personalization rate has been influenced by special series. clearly the the price of the car is important because it affects the denominator meaning the total revenue so i would not be particularly mindful about the the fluctuation of this personalization rate what actually matters in absolute terms are the the margins that are attached to that so you may imagine that the personalization rate for a monta In terms of the, the share of revenue is lower compact that, or maybe all the system is a balance of that, but the contribution may be very different.
John Murphy
Okay, and this lastly on the Concord agreement, I'm just wondering if you can give us. Any basics on the positive or negative side for. For economics going forward and just how we should think about that. in a very basic way on the positive and negative swing factors.
Louis Camilleri
Yeah. I prefer to comment saying that the net impact of the introduction of the new Concord Agreement and the budget cap is kind of neutral for us. That is the expectation, the way we monitor it through our time.
John Murphy
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Louis Camilleri
Thank you, John.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Giulio Piscatore from Megsan. Please go ahead.
Megsan
Hi, everyone. First of all, I also wanted to take this opportunity to wish Luis all the best. Now coming to the questions, I want to come back to the 2021 guidance, and in particular to the free cash flow one. I really struggle to understand how to reconcile this $350 million guidance, also because you've given us an $800 million CapEx number. So what are the other assumptions behind this number in terms of working capital? And then how do we think about bridging this result with the 2022 target, given that it would imply a growth of three times in cash flow generation?
Louis Camilleri
Thank you, Giulio. As you know, our free cash flow is basically the result of how much we take out from the ABDA due to capital expenditures. Working capital in a wider sense means we take into account also the impact of the advances that we receive on the Monza, and we have a significant drag on it still in 2021. Basically, we catch some significant parts of the price of the Monzo already in 2019, and we won't have them in 2021. And beside the usual dynamics of the rest of working capital that does not count much usually, we have the tax and financial charges payment. As far as taxing is concerned, you should take into account the fact that new patent-bought schemes basically provides for the cash benefit to be split in three years. So there will be a slight reduction in 2021 compared to what we witnessed in 2019 and 2020.
Megsan
Okay, and yeah, yeah, thank you very much. And if we look at the 2022 number again, Does it include any impact from new deposits for a potential new limited edition car, or should we say it's a clean number? Yeah, that's a fair assumption. Okay, thank you very much. Then I also wanted to come back on the decision to postpone the CMD. Is that only driven by the fact that there isn't a permanent CEO at the moment, or is there anything else behind the decision. I don't think we ever communicated a date for the CMD, Giulio. Sorry, the first time we speak about that. Okay, okay. No problem then. And then also looking at your shipments for Q4, I mean, you were indicating shipments down around 9% for the full year in 2020. You closed the year down 10%. Is there any, maybe... conservativeness in deliveries in the last few weeks of the year? Have you taken maybe a halted delivery to kind of protect... No, not really.
Louis Camilleri
It's just rounding, Giulio. Just rounding. Okay. Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Susi Tibaldi from UBS. Please go ahead.
Susi Tibaldi
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. First of all, I would like to talk a little bit about the mixed evolution to expect in 2021. Clearly, your mix is becoming stronger and stronger. At the same time, we do have the analyzation of the Monza and also the pistas being phased out. So, net-net, what should we expect in terms of contribution from the mix in 2021?
Louis Camilleri
We expect mix to be positive, and this due to the fact that we'll keep on delivering the Monza as per our plan, and we should have significant growth in terms of the delivery of the SM90. So that's the main driver of what we expect.
Susi Tibaldi
Okay. And when it comes to the percentage of volumes that you expect to be hybrids, because you had a target at the CMD to have 60% by next year, which, I mean, at the moment you have two models. So how should we think about the step up? And do you have, can you give us an indication of what percentage of 2021 volume could be hybrid?
Louis Camilleri
As you know, we prefer not to go into that. We prefer to look just at revenues. Those are much more relevant than volumes per se.
Susi Tibaldi
Okay. And on the CEO search, I mean, I can imagine that you cannot give details in terms of names that you might be considering. But can you perhaps discuss a little bit what are the key criteria and qualities that you are looking for in the next CEO?
Louis Camilleri
I'm sorry, the question is about what I didn't catch.
Susi Tibaldi
The search for the new CEO, if you can describe the key criteria and characteristics that you're looking at.
Louis Camilleri
Yeah, I'm sure the board is considering all of the criteria that are necessary to run a company like ours. You're right.
Susi Tibaldi
Yeah. Okay. And maybe just one last one as a clarification. Can you just remind us what plans have been affected and what initiatives have been postponed as a result of COVID?
Louis Camilleri
No. Once again, I think we mentioned a couple of times this year. The basics and the main drivers of our growth plan remains unchanged. It's just a question of timing for most of that. But as we are not specific in advance to the models we launch, we cannot be on even more, I would say, on the initiatives that will come in a couple of years or longer.
Susi Tibaldi
Okay. Thank you.
Louis Camilleri
Thanks.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Monica Bosio from Intesa San Paolo. Please go ahead.
Monica Bosio
Good afternoon everyone and thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on China. Can you give us a flavor on what are we going to expect in terms of shipments from mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan in 2021 and if you see some a major flow of shipments in the coming year from these regions and the second is on the timing for the new models can you give us a rough timing for the announcement of the three new models in 2021 and the very last is on the quarterly trend i know it's It's difficult, but the outlook is still uncertain, so do you see some differences quarter by quarter? If you can just give us a flavor about the first quarter and going forward. Thank you very much.
Louis Camilleri
Thank you, Monica. I'll start from the launches. That's a nice try, but as you know, we do not go into that sort of detail. With respect to the quarterly development of the year, we have some seasonality. Something has changed in 2020 due to the impact of the pandemic. So the comparison will not be an easy one. It's not just the development of volumes, but it's also the mixed changes and also in terms of revenue recognition for the F1 activity. So it's a bit difficult without entering into the detail of modeling, as we prefer not to do. The last one is on China. What we currently witness is a nice comeback of orders from there. You should not ever look at our delivers in 2019 and 2020 because you know these were affected by our decision to anticipate introduction. of a new emission regulation that was unexpected in 2019. As a result, 2020 suffered in the comparison. 2021, what we currently see is a significant growth of order, particularly and nightly, that may be an interesting one, on the Monza, sorry, on the Roma, and with a significant share of orders from women there. that that means something in terms of the success a car may have even if with a with a thermic engine okay thank you very much antonio thank you thank you monica thank you our next question comes from the line of george gallius from goldman sachs please go ahead
Monica
Good afternoon and thank you for taking my questions. The first question I had, and apologies if you did allude to this in the comments, but just for this year, what are your assumptions around raw materials and FX? And have you already taken actions to price through the appreciation in the Euro against the US dollar, which we saw last year?
Louis Camilleri
Thank you, George. In terms of our policy on FX, as you know, we have a policy that provides for an edging on a rolling basis with some target percentages. So a significant chunk of 2021 has already been edged throughout 2020. Still, we do not go 100%, and there is room for improvement. changes and impacts from changes in effects on our results, which is minimized, but may go one side or another. As far as raw material, for those who really matter, we have a similar policy.
Monica
Understood. Thank you. And then the second question I had was just with respect to the order book. You're obviously extremely clear that the order book is is very strong and extends well into next year. Can I just ask you, is there much variation by model line or, more importantly, by market in terms of what you see with respect to the order book? Or is it pretty robust across the board at this point in time?
Louis Camilleri
I would describe it as pretty robust across the board, across geographies. Across the board meaning across products and geography, nicely enough.
Monica
Great. And then the final question, just to clarify, and I think both Michael and John have already touched on this, but I just wanted to clarify, at this point in time, you still are aiming to deliver the 2022 targets that were presented. Is that a fair statement?
Louis Camilleri
I think that will come with the That will come with the capital market day. At that point, we may describe the strategy we are pursuing and if and by how much any results expected for any target expected for 2020 is to be changed. Thank you. Sorry, 2022. Thank you. Thank you, Jordan.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Thomas Besson from Kepler-Chevreau. Please go ahead.
Thomas Besson
Thank you very much. I'll have a couple of questions left, please. Firstly, you had the... Sorry, Thomas.
Nicoletta Russo
Can you maybe speak a bit louder and closer to the microphone? We have problems hearing you. Thank you.
Thomas Besson
Sure. Sorry for that, Nicoleta. Is that better now?
Nicoletta Russo
Way better. Thank you very much.
Thomas Besson
Okay, great. Sorry for that. So a couple of questions left, please. First, on the EBIT bridge in 2020, because of COVID, you had an enormous others line that was very negative. Should we expect part of that to reverse positively in 2021, or is it just something that's gone?
Louis Camilleri
I'm not sure I got which is the part of the edit brief that you were talking about.
Thomas Besson
The one called other.
Louis Camilleri
Oh, sorry. Well, you know that the other includes the impact of F1, which in principle may come back to the extent the F1 calendar is not affected the same way it was in 2020. That obviously includes the revenues from the commercial right holder and the revenues from the sponsorship, but also includes the impact on EBIT from the delays and closure of our brand-related activities. Once again, there we are very much dependent on the evolution of the pandemic. And finally, we are also parking dependent on Maserati in terms of volumes and margins attached to that.
Thomas Besson
Okay, thank you. Actually, give me a connection to the next question. Can you just clarify the... potential financial consequences of stopping the delivery of Maserati engines. We are not fully aware, obviously, of the contract you had with them. Is there a need to write off any asset?
Louis Camilleri
The agreement with Maserati is expected to end in 2023. You know, that business is diluted for us in terms of margin, and furthermore, I think we outlined since the time of the Capital Market Day that we expect to have some capacity to be freed up from the stop of that activity that may be used for the development of our models and of our power frame going forward.
Thomas Besson
Okay, thank you. I have a last question that may be beyond the scope, but I try it. Could you give us any hint about the 2022 CAPEX plan and the timeline for the Puro Sangwe launch, whether it's still within the frame of the initial plan or whether it's now pushed into 2023?
Louis Camilleri
No, I would prefer not to go into that. Once again, we said there are some developments ongoing. It's better to talk when everything is clear.
Thomas Besson
Understood.
Operator
Thank you very much. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Massimo Vecchio from UbiBanca.
Pista
Yes, good afternoon to everybody. I have a follow-up question on the CAPEX indication. 800 million euros is really a big number. It's probably the highest in the history. I was wondering if you can give us some details on what are the number one or two projects that you are investing in, or at least by categories, if it's R&D for new propulsions or any color would be helpful.
Louis Camilleri
Sure, Massimo. By the way, This was the same target we gave or better expectation that we gave beginning of last year when we started 2020 and before being informed about the impact of COVID. And there is some catch up in that number from the slower pace of our investment in the last part of 2020. This is mostly product, so product development. which all what is attached to that in terms of the consideration that we are not anymore only on thermal engines. We also have, as you well know, hybrid, and we are working on other infrastructure is a small part of that, but we cannot disregard the development in our factory here, as we did, by the way, by purchasing some tract on land contiguous to the infrastructure. to our headquarter here. And so, as I said, it's mostly product. And this is, by the way, fully in line with what we said at the Capital Market Day back in 2018. So we're just in an execution move there.
Pista
Okay, okay. Thank you very much.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Adam Jonas
Thanks, everybody. And I have a question for John Elkhorn, but I just wanted to say at the outset that, I mean, all the talk around 2022 guidance, I totally understand it, but just think about how much the world has changed in terms of CO2 and climate change and EV economics since the 2018 CMD. It almost renders the 2022 guide irrelevant, in my opinion, but just my opinion. But, John, question for you. Ferrari vehicles, I know management in the past on tailpipe emissions had the comment that because Ferrari vehicles are such a minuscule part of the park that it's really tiny and that you could kind of talk to regulators and somehow convince them we're not a big deal and you could kind of purchase credits and very easily at current carbon prices or even more than that kind of make it, you know, neutralize it. But what's happening, of course, as you know, John, and the team, now cities are getting involved. London, Los Angeles, Hong Kong, big Ferrari cities are kind of saying, no, we're not going to allow the operation of ICE vehicles in the coming years. And so it just means you run the risk of having the regulatory environment move outside of your control. So with that in mind, I'd love to hear... Maybe a direct question, John, can you see a day within the next decade where the majority of Ferrari's products are 100% electric? Not just hybrid, because that's still considered tailpipe climate-changing cars in the eyes of these mayors and cities that we're talking to and you're talking to. I'm not asking you to say it's going to happen, but is that too radical for Ferrari while protecting the sanctity of the brand? Thanks, John.
John Elkin
Hi, Adam. Good to hear your voice. I think that the best way to answer is really an open invitation for next year in Maranello to talk to you and all your colleagues who are going to join us. on the exciting journey that we have over this decade. And 2030 will still be a year where we will have hybrid cars. So within this decade, we won't be seeing a Ferrari fully electric. What we will see within this decade is an electric Ferrari. And I hope you will buy one, Adam. I love you, John. Let's talk about it.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steven Reitman from Societe Generale. Please go ahead.
Steven Reitman
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you. Question on you mentioned very impressively that your cancellation level in 2020 was lower than in 2019. Can you comment a little bit about where were the cancellations, either by geography and by product, really, to get an idea about that? And secondly, you alluded on the new customers that you had a very strong interest from women in China for the Roma. Can you talk more generally about the level of interest globally on the Roma, and also the level of interest for the SF90 Stradale at the other extreme, and particularly the amount of proportion of people who are specifying the SSF Fiorano additional uptake.
Louis Camilleri
Thank you. Thank you, Stephen. In terms of the constellations, we were public in the second quarter. That's the fact that we had some constellations in North America and in Australia. They were pretty much concentrated there. From then on, we haven't seen anything specific. So the ones that we had were usually evenly distributed throughout the various geographies, nothing special to report. With respect to the color on the order intake for the various models, I think it is confirmed that the Roma attracts more than any other Ferrari before new to Ferrari's customers, which is interesting and nice. It happens also that the SF90 attracts younger customers, more probably than we would have expected. and the order book for that guy is very very long and the music and pre-order has been put already some months ago um and that are probably the two most interesting elements that you should take into account on the and in terms of sort of the model cancellations where they concentrated at the lower end or the higher end of the model lineup I don't think there is any specific concentration on either the low or the high end of our range. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. There are no further questions on the line. Please go ahead.
Nicoletta Russo
Thank you all. Bye-bye.
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