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Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Ferrari 2021 full year results conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be the question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star and 1 on your telephone keypad. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you require any further assistance over the phone, please press star 0. I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker today, Nicoletta Rousseau.
Ferrari
Please go ahead. Thank you, Nadia, and welcome to everyone who is joining us. Today we plan to cover the Group's full year 2021 operating results and 2022 guidance. In light of this, the duration of the call is expected to be around 60 minutes. Today's call will be hosted by the Group CEO, Mr. Benedetto Vigna, and Group CFO, Mr. Antonio Piccapicon. All relevant materials are available in the investor section of the Ferrari corporate website, and at the end of the presentation, we will be available to answer your questions. Before we begin, let me remind you that any forward-looking statements we might make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement. included on page 2 of today's presentation and the call will be governed by this language. With that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Benedetto.
Benedetto Vigna
Thank you Nicoletta, thank you everyone for joining us today. Three months have passed since the last time we met digitally all together and many things have happened in our company. today i will be delighted to take you through the 2021 result and i will provide a little taste about what's happening in our company our performance in 2021 was very robust from both a quantitative and qualitative point of view numbers first we close the years setting a new record in terms of result across all metrics posting double digit growth and above pre-pandemic level. The results were higher than the targets we had already upgraded when we shared our third quarter results. Five excellent results to remember. First, €4.3 billion revenues, materially exceeding, for the first time in our history, the threshold level of €4 billion. Over 11,000 cars shipped with significant growth in all regions. In China, our deliveries doubled year over year. 35.9% exceptionally strong ABDA margin reached at a record level. Impressive €640 million industrial free cash flow generation, mainly thanks to the advances collected on the special series and thanks to the discipline and timing of CAPEX spend. And all this with no impact on our product plan. The last point is we have the strongest ever order book in our history. up double digit versus the prior years and covering well into 2023, with all regions showing significant growth. How did we achieve these five excellent results? Firstly, we have to thank our incredible customers, both existing and new, and all the women and all the men of Ferrari for their outstanding work. Secondly, it was possible thanks to the strong margin contribution of the Monza SP1 and SP2. Thirdly, this was further boosted by our decision to seize commercial opportunities on certain models in line with our order intake evolution. We also benefited from deliveries of the SF90 Stradale being moved to 21 from previous year 2020. And last but not least, we have capitalized on a strong economic climate, as evidenced also by the solid performance of our pre-owned business, and on the enthusiasm of our customers whose delight in sharing their Ferrari passion with us has been so evident at our event. After these five excellent results, the five key priorities we focused on, on all the year 2021. Product excellence, customer experience, motor racing, brand diversification, and carbon neutrality. Let's start with product. Last year, we unveiled four new models demonstrating our leadership in technology, in design and driving experience. They all received an enthusiastic response from the market and worldwide acclaim. In May, we unveiled the 8-12 Competizione and the 8-12 Competizione Aperta, our latest special series with its revolutionary aerodynamics, and they were all sold out prior to the official launch, as a testament to the vigorous demand for our V12 models. Just a month later, in June, we launched the accelerating 296 GTB, featuring our latest hybrid powertrain, combining a V6 turbo and electric motor. It exceeded previous models' order intake over the same relative period, and now a solid pipeline of experiences for our customers is already planned for the current year, further fueling our ambition for this model. I drove this car several times, and the go-kart feeling and the fun-to-drive experience you can have are really unique, believe me. A few weeks ago, in November, the new Icona, the most powerful V12 ever made, whose unveiling I had the pleasure of attending in Florence, surprised our most loyal Ferraristi. I'm talking about the Ferrari Daytona SP3. a masterpiece of craftsmanship, performance and design, already awarded internationally and limited to 599 units, which have all been allocated in advance of its premieres and with untapped demand, way exceeding the limited series run. So we enter this year, 22, with considerable momentum thanks to two factors. One, the strongest ever order book, and two, a broad portfolio of models. The order book first. It has never been so strong. The positive trend. characterized the whole year and continued in Q4 when we experienced impressive order intake despite our decision to close the order collection on certain models. Second, the new product portfolio. Not only do we have the broadest, most innovative and most beautiful range of cars ever offered to our customers, But we also plan to further enrich this with two server launches this year, completing the 15 launches promised at the Capital Market Day in 2018. In these years, in 2022, we will unveil the much-anticipated Puro Sangue, which I am confident will exceed our customer expectations. I drove it several times in the hills around Maranello, day and night, for the test, and I can testify that the driving experience is really astonishing, but I do not want to say more to avoid to spoil such a surprise. Now, after-product customer experience. In the course of 2021, it has been really liberating to be able to start arranging events with them again. To mention a few of them, we marked Cavalcade's 10th anniversary with a very special event in Sicily for classic and modern drivers, and we restarted our Tributi and Corse Cliente activities, culminating in the Finali Mondiali at Mugello, where I met so many of our customers and fans, all passionate about Ferrari. Now, our motor racing activities. 2021 was our best ever season in GT racing, with Ferrari winning the Drivers' and Manufacturers' World Titles in FIA World Endurance Championship and with victory at the 24 Hours of Le Mans with our 488 GTE EVO. the formula one 2021 season also showed encouraging sign toward its end with third place in the constructor championship 2022 is the first year with a complete new set of technical rules and our new car will be presented in a few days on february 17th we are also redefining our strategic partner along three directions one We welcome back Banco Santander. Two, we tap current segments with new partners such as SIVA Logistics in the transportation space. Three, we strengthen our relationship with leading-edge technological partners such as Amazon Web Services and Velas to be at the forefront of digital technologies and Web 3.0. Such stronger partner portfolio confirms once again the continued allure of the most successful team in F1 history, Scuderia Ferrari. And what about brand diversification? Well, last year we made excellent progress in extending our brand into exciting new territories. In June, we launched the first-ever Ferrari fashion collection. In July, we reopened the iconic Cavallino restaurant in the heart of Maranello. And in the second half of last year, we renovated our stores in Italy and USA. In 2022, we plan to move forward, and the first important milestone will be the upcoming fashion show in Milan later this month. Last but not least, carbon neutrality by 2030. In a further step towards our goal, in Q4, we received ISO 14064 certification for our calculation of the group's carbon footprint. This certification has been really an important step forward. In addition to our electrification journey, we are also committed to addressing both direct, indirect emission with a focus on energy and material across all our entire value chain. As always, our focus was not only on external stakeholders. We continued to invest in our employees. True to our founders' belief that Ferrari is made above all by people. We invested in training for our employees, caring for their well-being and nurturing the diversity of talent in our company. Our efforts were rewarded in 2021 by equal salary certification for the second consecutive year in Italy and for the first time in the United States. The year has been really outstanding thanks to the passion, the dedication of Ferrari people and to reward their achievement in line with the company's strong performance indicators. I'm really pleased to announce the company the yearly competitive award up to slightly over €12,000 for our employees. And now, After the 2021 highlight, let's have a look at the future, at our future, a small taste before providing the full picture on June 16 when we meet here. We are targeting 2022 to be a solid year on the trajectory to reach the 2023 ABDA target of €1.82 billion as announced in 2018. How do we want to do this? How do we want to achieve this goal? Well, there are three clear directions we identified. Number one, we will carefully manage a vibrant order intake in line with our strategy to pursue controlled growth to preserve our brand exclusivity. We will manage the Monza's phase-out whilst the Daytona's deliveries will start in 2023. Three, as I already explained in the last call, innovation requires partners. And it is what we start to do. Lafrome, Amazon, and Velas, just to mention a few of them. And some others, some other important technology partnership will follow up in the near future. 2022 is a very important year for us. It's not only the 75th anniversary of our company. It also sets the foundation for a new business plan, which will be presented at our Capital Market Day on June 16 here in Maranello. This will also be the occasion to meet in person some members of our new organization. recently announced and achieved through both the promotion of home-grown talents and a number of key strategic external lives. The new organization is designed to further foster innovation, optimize processes, enhance agility and increase collaboration. People are the soul of our company. And I'm confident we will seize the opportunities ahead of us in this fast-evolving environment. I will now hand over to Antonio, who will review the 2021 result and 2022 guidance.
Nicoletta
Thank you, Benedetto, and good morning or afternoon to everyone who is joining us today. Let me start on page 7. where you can see the highlights of the 2021 earnings, a very strong year, which shows high double-digit growth on all metrics compared to 2020, and more meaningfully, a remarkable increase versus pre-pandemic levels. Our shipments reached 11,155 units, up 22% versus the prior year and 10% versus 2019. Group net revenues were €4,271,000,000, increased 23% versus prior year and 13% versus 2019, driven mainly by volume and stronger product mix. And the DA came in at €1,531,000,000, up 34% versus 2020 and close to 21% versus 2019. The EBITDA margin reached a record level of 35.9%, boosted by the contribution from the Ferrari Monza and an otherwise very rich product mix. EBIT was 1 billion and 75 million euro, up 50% versus 2020 and 17% versus 2019. The improvement of both operating margins compared to our latest guidance mainly reflects the upward revision of the commercial revenues from the F-1 commercial right holder recorded in Q4. Adjusted net profit was $833 million, up 56% versus 2020, and 19% versus 2019, resulting in an adjusted diluted EPS of €4.5, improved by 56% versus prior year. Industrial free cash flow for the year was exceptionally strong at €642 million, supported mainly by the collection of the advances for the A12 competizione. Turning to page 8, You can see the details of the shipments of the full year 2021, up 22% versus 2020. Sales of eight-cylinder were up about 35%, while 12-cylinders were down 16%, mainly due to the reduced volume of the A12 Superfast, which was phased out in the year. Our deliveries were driven by the range models, the F8 family, the Ferrari Roma and the SF90 Stradale, which reached global distribution, the Portofino M and the SF90 Spider in wrap-up phase. Shipments of the Ferrari Monza SP1 and SP2 were higher compared to the prior year, in line with planning, and reaching the end of production. All geographic regions posted double-digit growth. Moving to page 9, you can see the walk of our group net revenues, up 26% at constant currency. The increase in revenues from cars and spare parts, up almost 29% at constant currency, was supported by higher volumes and strong enrichment of the product mix, along with personalizations. Revenues from personalizations were higher than the prior year in absolute terms, sustained by volumes. They were in line with the historical average at around 18% in proportion to revenues from cars and spare parts. Engines revenues were up about 26%. The improvement is related to higher shipments to Maserati and, to a lesser extent, to the rental of engines to other Formula One racing teams. The increase in sponsorship, commercial, and brand, up close to 13% at cost and currency, was attributable to the more favorable Formula One calendar and brand-related activities, partially offset by lower prior year ranking. This increase reflects Also, the upward revisions of the commercial revenues from Formula One that I mentioned before. Currency, including translation and transaction impact, as well as foreign currency edges, had a negative contribution of €80 million, mostly related to the US dollar and the Japanese yen this quarter. Moving to page 10. Let me review the change in our EBIT bridge, explained by the following variances. First, volume was positive for €220 million, reflecting the shipments increase. Second, mix price variance was also positive for €212 million, boosted by a richer product mix. thanks to the SF90 family and the Ferrari Monza SP1 and SP2, along with personalizations, partially offset by the ramp-up of the Ferrari Roma and the Portofino M, and the reduced contribution of the A12 Superfast. As already mentioned by Benedetto, the product mix in 2021 was further boosted by our decision to seize commercial opportunities on certain models in line with order intake evolution, had also benefited from deliveries of the SF90 Stradale being moved to 2021 from 2020. Third, industrial and R&D expenses increased €65 million, mainly due to higher DNA, product innovation activities, and Formula One expenses, net of technology-related government incentives. as well as startup costs. Fourth, SG&A were negative by 14 million euro, mainly reflecting communication and marketing activities of model unveilings and lifestyle events, as well as the company's organizational development. Lastly, other increased 83 million euro, reflecting the more favorable Formula One calendar and higher contribution from band related and other supporting activities, partially offset by the impact of the lower Formula One ranking of 2020. The total net impact of currencies was negative for 77 million euro. As a result of what I just mentioned, EBIT reached €1.75 billion, up 50.2% versus the prior year, with an EBIT margin of 25.2%. Turning to page 11, industrial free cash flow generation for the year was remarkable and equal to €642 million, sustained by the strong growth in ABDA and the collection of advances on the A12 Competizione. The working capital dynamic, including the above-mentioned advances, provisions and other receivables and payables, was almost neutral also due to the cadence of our capital expenditure, which stood at 737 million euro. The capitalization ratio was approximately 39% for the year and in line with the prior year. Net industrial debt as of the end of December 21 was 297 million euro compared to 543 million euro at the end of 2020. It's worth mentioning that excluding the dividend distribution of 162 million euro, and 231 million euro of share repurchase, we would have been cash positive at year end. Let's move on page 12. Here we explain the main drivers of our guidance for 2022, which targets a solid growth and continues to demonstrate the EBITDA progress on the trajectory to reach our 2023 EBITDA target of €1.8 to €2 billion, as announced back in 2018. While in 2022 our profitability will continue to expand in absolute terms, carefully leveraging our record order book, percentage-wise the marginality will be flattened by a product mix which will be richer but not enough to offset the negative impact of the monza phasing out and of the dietona deliveries starting in 2023 more diversified by but lower revenues from sponsorship and a step up in dna in line with the start of production of new models which will start the deliveries in 2023 or which contribute marginally in 2022 On the industrial free cash flow side, the generation will be robust, supported by the strong operating results and the collection of advances on the Daytona SP3. This will be partially offset by capital expenditures of approximately 800 million euro, as we expect the lower capex seen in 2021 to reface partly in 2022. but also by much higher taxes commensurate to the very strong results posted in 2021. Page 12, we show the progress that we aim to achieve based on our guidance since our starting point of 2018 until the end of 2022. In essence, as of the end of this current year, we want to be very close to what we promised at the 2018 Capital Markets Day for the accumulated EBITDA and fully on target in terms of cumulative industrial free cash flow generation over the planned period, albeit with a different time profile. And we want to achieve such results despite the impact of this pandemic. Subject to meeting our ambitions, I believe this will prove once again the resilience and strength of our business model based on brand exclusivity, product excellence, leading-edge technology, and innovation. Such awareness allows us to look at the future with great confidence. With that said, I turn the call over to Nicoletta. Thank you.
Ferrari
Thank you, Antonio. Nadia, please, we are now ready to start our Q&A session.
Operator
Thank you. Dear participants, we will now begin our question-and-answer session. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and 1 on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. The first question comes from the line of Michael Binetti from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Michael Binetti
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for all the details today and for taking our questions. I guess I'm trying to think about the structure of the guidance you laid out for 22 relative to where we were at. I know you guys have been focusing us on the 2018 analyst day and helping explain the differences and similarities as you pushed out the $1.8 to $2.0 billion to next year. But this year you've got revenues in line at $4.8 with the low end of that original plan, but EBIT, below by maybe $100 million at the low end of the plan. Maybe you could just help us understand what's different on the same revenue base that drives EBIT a little bit lower this year. And I think you originally said maybe a few units of pro sign would start to ship in 2022. Today you clarified that, that they'll be in 2023. So maybe it's a timing mismatch. But I wonder how much of it might be attributable to the profitability of ProSang relative to the overall fleet? Is that a car that you view as accretive to corporate margins or to the rest of the fleet?
Benedetto Vigna
Antonio, can you help me with that?
Nicoletta
Thank you, Michael. If I get your question right, I think the difference compared to the guidance we gave back in 2018 is largely due to the different timing of introduction of the cars compared to what we modeled at that time. Obviously, we are seizing the commercial opportunity that we are having, so the significantly strong order books on V8 entry models is helping in that respect. While, as we mentioned, I think the gap that we have between the phase-out of the Monza and introduction of the Daytona is impacting the level of the margins, both EBIT and EBITDA. In addition to that, as far as EBIT is concerned, we have this DNA impact, which is the fact that we start producing new cars that are coming in the next one. I don't know whether this is enough or... I think in terms of color, they should have.
Michael Binetti
Let me follow that for one second. You have Daytona and ProSign confirmed to start shipping next year after what you described as a headwind from Mix this year, largely Monza. But if the guide is now $1.8 to $2 billion for next year, the low end of that guide assumes EBITDA growth will slow to about 6% in 2023 from 11% in 2022. How should we think about the top end versus the bottom end of the guidance in that range. What scenario do you see that would explain a slowdown to an EBITDA growth next year? Maybe there's some phasing of investments as you guys look at the big initiatives like electric and those kinds of things. I'm just curious if you could help us think about that.
Nicoletta
Yeah, I think volumes will keep on growing anyway with better margins, with mix which will be stronger, which is supported by the new Econa coming in. And this is as far as the contribution of our core business. And then we added the other businesses that we expect also to grow. I mean, brand is still very low in 2022. We expect it to be better. In terms of one, there are some elements, including the budget cap introduction, but that's, of course, in terms of the cost side.
Michael Binetti
Okay. Thanks, and congrats on a great year, guys. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question.
Adam Jonas
Thanks very much. And I cannot wait until June 16th. That's going to be really, that's going to be so special. So I look forward to meeting you all in person. Benedetto, when you, you guys recently struck a deal with the Swiss government, blockchain company, Velas Network. How should investors think about the potential for the Ferrari brand in the metaverse or in the NFT or digital space?
Benedetto Vigna
Thank you for the question, Jonas, and also looking forward to meet you in person the 16th of June. I think that, as we said, it's important that we look and we see how the new technologies can help our brand. For sure, the digital technologies, the Web 3.0 technologies that are using the blockchain and the NFT is an area that can be interesting for us. It deserves some attention. There are many, as you know, there are many, there is a lot of movement on the market about this. Some companies even changed the name. And I think this is an area that where we have to put our attention. And that's the reason also why I put the, we have in place, if you have seen in the organization, a department that is called digital and data. Because, I mean, it's an important dimension that we as Ferrari, we have to evaluate it to consider for the future.
Adam Jonas
Okay. I look forward to learning more about that, Benedetto. My follow-up is, do you believe electric vehicles expands the addressable market for the Ferrari brand? And if so, how?
Benedetto Vigna
So do you think that the electric vehicles will expand the brand?
Adam Jonas
Do you think that as Ferrari brings forth all electric vehicles, that that grows the addressable market and revenue potential for the brand? And if so, how do you see that happening? Or why?
Benedetto Vigna
Okay. I think the point is the following. I mean, electrification is one... one technology like the digitalization that we will harness always in our unique Ferrari way. As you know, we already started to hybridize our model a few years ago. We have already three models on the road that are pretty much successful, SF90 Stradale, Spider, and 296 GTB. And I believe that the electrification is a way is a technology, is a way that can help our brand to keep the pace with the time. That's what I believe, Adam.
Adam Jonas
Okay, thanks, Benedetto.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Susi Tibalti from UBS. Please ask your question.
Susie
Hi, thank you for taking my question. So my first one would be just to go back on Michael's question on the 22 guides. So your revenue guide for 2022 is quite high. And so given that the mix is going to be not that strong, it kind of implies a good step up in volume. And so I was wondering if this is a correct assumption or if there is something else that will contribute meaningfully to the top line. because you mentioned that also in terms of some sponsorship is a little bit lower. So it seems like this good increase in revenues should come mostly from the volume growth. So I just wanted to check if that's the right way to think about it.
Nicoletta
Hi, Susie. Antonio speaking. Your assumption is correct. Volume will be higher, so it will grow there. And this is because also the order book is significantly higher. higher than we're used to. It's covering well into 2023. It's not true that the mix is weak. I mean, actually the product range mix is high. It's simply not enough improving compared to the loss of the Monza and the introduction some months later of the Daytona. Okay, but basically year over year, volumes will be positive and mix we expect to be slightly negative.
Susie
Okay, got it. And on pricing, so in 21 it was the first time that you pushed through a like-for-like price increase, about 2%. If I remember correctly, it was mostly due to the inflation. And given that inflation for the moment is not really going away, Should we expect something similar for 2022? Are you planning to potentially push through some price increase to offset the inflation? Or was it a one-off in 2021?
Benedetto Vigna
Yeah, this is an important point. I mean, there is some pressure on the energy, on the aluminum cost, and we will apply this price increase to consider for that. But we will also leverage other important levers when it comes to the pricing of the new model.
Susie
and selected i mean the price increase of selected model and also the personalization so this is an important factor we are factoring in susie okay very clear and very quick just a follow-up on your free cash flow uh that you so in the slider you should have you basically um you're in line you you achieved the the 2.4 to 2.8 accumulated cash flow as promised so um So basically the fact that you were guiding previously to a 1.1 to 1.25 billion industrial free cash flow is just a matter of phasing, right? Because it feels like that has been just phased differently due to the phasing of the models. Or was there some kind of advances for a future maybe hypercar, which has now been changed in timing?
Nicoletta
You got it right, Susie. Phasing is the exact answer.
Susie
Okay. Okay, perfect. Thanks a lot.
Nicoletta
Welcome.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from line of John Murphy from Bank of America. Please ask your question.
John Murphy
Good afternoon, everybody, and thanks for the time. Just wanted to follow up on that pricing discussion. I mean, obviously, there's cost inflation that's going on, but you're talking about your order book being longer than it ever has been before. So is there a greater opportunity to take price, explain it to your customers as there's cost inflation to you. They're relatively sophisticated to offset that, but then also to maybe help balance out the supply and demand in the business. It's a very high class problem, but it seems like there might be a greater pricing opportunity than you've ever even had before.
Benedetto Vigna
Thank you. I think this is what you say is important, and we are considering, I mean, we are applying the price increase, and we are monitoring carefully what's happening on these two dimensions of energy and aluminum. And again, as I said, we will introduce also a new model, and we will apply in the right way the pricing. So this is... an important dimension that we are careful about also because we all know what is the pressure that there is in the supply chain all over the world. On the other side, I have to say that we have also on the supply chain, I mean, we have some good partners, reliable partners we can leverage on.
John Murphy
Okay. And then just a second question on the transition to EVs. You know, it's very interesting that Daytona is a V12 naturally aspirated engine. You know, that sounds great to me personally. But, you know, obviously there's a push towards EVs. Given your close relationship with your customers and you kind of build, you design engineer and build what they want, what are you hearing from your customers at this point on this transition? I mean, many other companies are slaves to guessing at where EV penetration will go and what they should do with their powertrain investment. But you have direct access and good discussion and relationships with your customers. So what are they telling you? Because on the Daytona, it seems like they're saying, hey, we probably don't want this right now. But the reality is some people might. So, I mean, what are your customers telling you right now?
Benedetto Vigna
I think we have – I mean, we have different kind of Ferraristi, each one with its own – prefer the models and the proportions so we have a Ferrari that I have seen them in Florence when we launched the Daytona and they were extremely happy and delighted to see such a beautiful car I have seen also customers trying the 296 GTB that is a kind of different car with different feeling so I think that if you want to get my feedback from the customers, is that we have customers with different feelings, different needs, different perceptions, and even the same customer for different moments can prefer the V12, the aspirated one, or the V6 hybrid. So there is a mix of different customers with different feelings and different needs, different emotions.
John Murphy
But it's fair to say that you're not guessing at this. You're having these discussions with your customers, so what you're introducing and you're building is what they want. You're never going to misestimate the EV penetration on the models, right? I mean, this is something that's well-known by you through that order book and your discussions with your customers. Is that a fair statement?
Benedetto Vigna
I'm saying that there is a clear trend, and we will work on, for sure, an electric vehicle, and we will see the strategy line up here in June 2016. What I want to say is that there are customers, different customers that prefer different kind of propulsion scheme. So we are aware, obviously, of what's happening. We have planned for that, but we are also aware of the different feelings and different emotions the customers want to get with different propulsion scheme.
John Murphy
Okay, great.
Benedetto Vigna
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Giulio Pescatore from BNP Paribas Exxon. Please ask your question.
Daytona
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I just want to follow up on the previous point. In your answer, did you mean that as long as customers will want combustion engines, you would be willing to provide them, even if we think about 10 or 20 years down the line?
Benedetto Vigna
I think that the technology is useful as far as it addresses customer needs. We have to delight customers. This is important for us. So if we are moving piston or we are moving other things, that's what we want to do.
Daytona
Okay, thank you. And then the second question on the other book for the 296 GTB, which you said builds faster than the previous processor of that vehicle. Does that mean that that car could potentially do the same type of volumes that, I don't know, a Tributo X8 or a 488 did in the past? And can you maybe talk about the difference in demographics between that vehicle and the 488?
Benedetto Vigna
Maybe I... Yeah, you can go on, Tom.
Nicoletta
I think you have some reference. We want to provide the forecast on volume lifecycle. However, as Benedetto said before, the receipt has been very strong in terms of order compared to our previous internal benchmarks. The other element, yes, I think you're addressing the fact that our customer base for this car is likely younger, and this is true.
Benedetto Vigna
I mean, really, you need to drive it to experience it.
Daytona
it's uh oh i ask you to provide a driving experience at your cmd i'll be more than happy yeah the car is here fantastic great to be i'll be there um maybe just one last one before i pass on to the next speaker on the frequency 2022 i've really struggled to bridge your guidance which feels very very conservative at the lower end at least i understand the step-up in capex i understand that there are going to be higher taxes, but can you maybe help us with the amount of deposits that we should expect from the Daytona and how many deposits did you receive last year for the competition? Because it's really difficult to bridge those numbers.
Nicoletta
Well, I will not comment on the degree of conservatism of the estimate, but basically our cash flow is relatively simple. I mean, we have DA, BTA, and you know what the guidance is. You know what we said about capex. I think the whole question is about the working capital where we include in the wider definition also the impact of the advances on the limited series cars. So the Daytona, we are talking about more than 200 million, more or less, in terms of current estimate. The other element you should not underestimate is the impact of taxes because we are obviously paying taxes both in terms of the balance and the advance. on the basis of the results of 2021, and it makes a big difference compared to what we paid in 2021 based on the results of 2020 that were impacted by the pandemic. I hope this provides you a better understanding of the details.
Daytona
Yeah, but you're still benefiting from the patent box, right?
Nicoletta
Yeah, the patent box is helping, but not in terms of cash, nor at the level It did at the very beginning because now the law provides for the benefit cash-wise in three-year installments. So this has been already visible in 2021 and will be obviously in 2022. Okay, thank you. You're welcome.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Martino D'Ambrogi from Equita. Please ask a question.
Martino D'Ambrogi
Thank you. Good morning, good afternoon, everybody. My focus is on CAPEX, which is a portion of the lower free cash flow for the current year. So the 800 million may be considered a sort of peak for CAPEX, or should we expect they will go beyond the 1 billion annually going forward? And when you talk about partnerships, I remember you also mentioned partnership in order to reduce CAPEX. I clearly understand you cannot talk about something that was not announced, but just to elaborate a bit on this in order to understand what could be the magnitude of the reduction in CAPEX, if any.
Benedetto Vigna
Thank you. Thank you, Marco. You remember well that the partnerships are an important way forward for us. And as I said also before, there will be some important partnership for us we will announce in the near future. i i think that um i mean it's important that is always also what i said in my previous life to keep a strong discipline about capex and to keep the momentum and to to make sure to do something innovative it's it's important we decide what we do internally and we decided and what we want to do with partners outside so the two words are partnership and discipline and as i said in the near future you will hear about an important partnership on something that is important for for our car but for which let's say we believe the the best way forward is his partnership and on the amount of capex 800 million could be considered as a peak You can consider these more or less a good number to think about because we will use, as I said, the partnership to optimize and to be disciplined.
Martino D'Ambrogi
OK, thank you. And talking about volumes, based on what you commented before, I would expect higher volume growth than the usual, let's say, average of 6% we saw in the last few years.
Nicoletta
Yeah, this is a bit a result of the significant net order intake increase that we have seen this year. So we need to serve this one. Obviously, we'll be very careful because the concept of scarcity remains crucial to our business model. And this is an element of significant attention. We'll play all leverages to manage this one.
Benedetto Vigna
And for sure, the broadest portfolio, the broad portfolio we have, it's helping to protect also the brand exclusivity. Because in these years, we have a lot of models that are in production.
Martino D'Ambrogi
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Stefan Reitman from Societe Generale. Please ask your question.
Stefan Reitman
Yes, sir. Good afternoon. Thank you for this. I understand what you're saying about the mix in 2022. So just to dig a little more detail in that. First of all, is it my understanding that you'll still be selling to Monza's in the first quarter of 2022? So we could see maybe something up there. And the second question is about the cadence of deliveries of the A12, the company currently A. How many would you expect to be delivered in 2022?
Benedetto Vigna
There is a lot of noise on the background. We are having problems to understand your question. I don't know. It seems there is someone on mute. I don't know.
Stefan Reitman
I'll try again. Sorry. Okay. Try again, maybe. Sorry about that. Yeah, I'm sorry. No. I just want to ask. So, first of all, I understand that you will be selling still some Monza's in the first quarter of this year, this final model. Will that have an impact expected in the first quarter of this year still? And secondly, could you talk about the cadence of deliveries of the A12 Competizione, obviously a very high margin car for you in the course of 2022?
Nicoletta
Thank you. I think in terms of the Monza, we'll complete the deliveries of the Monza in Q1. However, the absolute number will not be as high as it has been during the last quarter of this year. The A12 competizione and competizione aperta will be spread quite evenly across the fourth quarter.
Stefan Reitman
Thank you.
Nicoletta
You're welcome.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from George Goliath from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.
George Goliath
Thank you for taking my question. The first question I had was just on the volumes. Obviously, you're now above 11,000 units. I think in the past, previous management mentioned that max capacity was about 15,000 units on the existing industrial footprint. Is that still roughly the right number to think about? And in order to get there, presumably, you'd have to add shifts. What's the kind of lead time from a training perspective to add incremental shifts? The second question I had was with respect to the carbon neutrality by 2030. Do you still expect e-fuels to play a prominent role in reaching that target? And then finally, obviously we had significant management changes and some exciting promotions and external hires during the quarter. Perhaps you could give some insight into the skill sets you were looking to promote as part of those management changes. Thank you.
Benedetto Vigna
Thank you. I'll start from the last one, the management change and the carbon neutrality, and the first one, Antonio, will take it. So let's start from the management change. Yes, we did a big change at the beginning, end of last year, beginning of this change, beginning of this year. And we did along two directions, if you have seen. On one side, we promoted our internal talents that I had the pleasure to see because I talked to a lot of people in the company. And also we externalized. I think what the common thread that we wanted and I wanted to push within this new organization are the four following ones. Number one, The strong willingness to cooperate. Number two is about attention to innovation. And number three is the focus, to bring these things, especially in a transition area, to make the right choice, the right decision, with the right timing, and to move forward. And number four is... is very important especially nowadays this is becoming very important for all the companies in this continuous learning approach because we have to to be open to listen at the other point of view, other people's point of view, and also the supplier's point of view, the partner's point of view. So these are the features that I want to boost with the new organization, again, organized with the homegrown talents and also external hires. This gives for granted, let me say, competencies that all these people are bringing in the game. Coming to the second question, the carbon neutrality, as we said, the carbon neutrality, we will show you a clear plan when we meet here in Maranello. The target is to become carbon neutral by 2030. We want to do it looking at all the carbon emissions we generate directly, as well as the carbon emissions that get generated along the value chain. And we want to do it in a scientific way, and so that's the reason why we are also proud, if you want, of this ISO certification we got in Q4, because it testifies that we are substantiating these numbers with a scientific approach. I think that if we want to tackle this properly, we need to be to do it scientifically, and that's what we will do, and that's what we will show you in June. Now, the first question.
Nicoletta
Antonio, you can take it. Yeah, George. On the first one, yes, 15,000 units is the level of capacity that we have. There has been no change in that respect. And the second one we are working on to shift, and we predict to be there even for 2022.
George Goliath
Hope this helps. Great. Thank you. Yeah, very helpful. Thank you very much, and looking forward to the CMD. Likewise.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes to the line of Monica Bossio from Intensa San Paolo. Please ask your question.
Monica Bossio
Good afternoon, everyone. I hope you can hear me. My first question is on the volumes growth in 2022. On the back of the Strong Order book, the ramp up of the new entry models in 2022, the volume impact will be significant over the current year. I was wondering if this could bring to some phase out of some models such as the S8. And as for the price mix, I was wondering if you can elaborate on what do you expect in terms of personalization for 2022? And my second question is an outkitting question. As for the advances from the Daytona, should we assume an impact mostly in the first part of the year? Is it correct? And in terms of taxes, You mentioned that the taxes would be higher at the cash impact level in 2022. Can you give us some highlights at the P&L level? Thank you very much.
Benedetto Vigna
I take the part of the phase out of the model. As I said, in Q4, we did not take an order anymore on some models, and this is done for the sake of brand exclusivity. The personalization gives a good contribution to our top line. And for Daytona and the taxes, maybe Antonio can take it. Sure.
Nicoletta
Daytona is significantly contributing in terms of cash flow with the advances in Q1. Maybe you remember what happened back in 2019 with the Monza. And in terms of taxes, yes, we are currently projecting something like... approximately 200 million additional cash out for taxes during the course of 2022.
Monica Bossio
200 million.
Operator
Thank you very much.
Nicoletta
Welcome. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you very much, dear participants. Thank you very much for all your questions. And now I would like to hand the conference over to our main speaker today, Mr. Benedetto Vigna. Thank you so much. Go ahead.
Benedetto Vigna
thank you thank you so much and thanks all for your time this afternoon and also for all your your questions let me close by underscoring three things one our excellent 2021 financial result with an exceptional abda margin two our record order book covering well into 2023 and three Our broad, innovative and beautiful product range with two new launches to come in this year, in 2022. Today, I realize we provided a little taste of what's happening in our company. I realize that you want to hear more and we are as eager as ever to see these opportunities ahead of us and to share with all of you the full picture on June 16 in Maranello at Capital Market Day. So good afternoon, everyone. Thanks again for your attention and talk to you in the next quarter. Thank you.
Operator
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect. Have a nice day.
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