Ferrari N.V. Common Shares

Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call

11/25/2023

speaker
Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ferrari third quarter 2023 results conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be the question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press star 11 on your telephone keypad. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Nicolette Rousseau, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
speaker
Nicolette Rousseau
Thank you, Nadia, and welcome to everyone who is joining us. Today, we plan to cover the Group Q3 2023 operating results, and the duration of the call is expected to be around 60 minutes. Today's call will be hosted by the Group CEO, Mr. Benedetto Vigna, and Group CFO, Mr. Antonio Piccapicon. All relevant materials are available in the investor section of the Ferrari corporate website. And at the end of the presentation, we will be available to answer your questions. Before we begin, let me remind you that any forward-looking statements we might make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement included on page two of today's presentation. And the call will be covered by this language. With that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Benedetto.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
Grazie Nicoletta and thank you everyone for joining us today. Before we begin, I would like to thank all the women and men of Ferrari for their outstanding work, all our clients for their continuous trust in our brand, and all our partners, suppliers, dealers and sponsors with whom we have continued to strengthen our relations. In the current macroeconomic context, we are continuing to execute our business plan in line with the trajectory outlined last year during our capital market day and Q3 was once again a quarter full of achievements. Three are the key messages we want you to focus on. 1. Record Q3 financial results sustaining our greater confidence towards year-end guidance. Product and infrastructure development are well on track, in particular on the electrification side with the full electric Ferrari in prototype phase and the e-building proceeding as planned. Continued strong bred momentum, further fueled by two new model launches the 296 Challenge and the 409P Modificata and outstanding event attendance in Italy and in the United States. So let's start with financial results and the business performance of our company. Q3 was a record quarter with all key metrics showing a double digit growth versus the previous year. For the first time, the revenues were above 1.5 billion euro. 24% up versus the prior years. With the shipment, 9% up. All geographic regions grew in the first nine months. EBITDA, about 600 million euros, and EBIT, over 420 million euros, were both up about 40%, driven by product mix and personalization. And last but not least, the industrial tickish flow generation was more than €300 million. These results are further proof of the strength of our business and the increased visibility towards the end of the year led us to revise upward the full year outlook. The vitality of our business is also confirmed by the current order book, which remains at highest levels across all geographies and models, covering the entire 2025. And before you ask, I can already tell you that in the next few months, we do not expect the order book to continue to grow since all models are substantially sold out, but one, the Roma Spider. Last week at the dealer annual meeting, I spent one full day with dealers from all over the world, and I received a very positive comment on the market sentiment. And by this, I mean throughout, from products to client interest and to brand experiences. And again, anticipating one of your questions, I would like to underline that during the dealer annual meeting of last week, I specifically spent time with our dealers in mainland China, which confirmed that the traction of the brand continues to be very strong. We are also making progress on the future product pipeline. All projects, our own truck, S-Planet. And in particular, I'm excited about the full electric Ferrari, now a prototype in testing mode. I had the pleasure to see and try it, and unfortunately, I cannot tell you more. You have to be patient, and as you know, this is part of the desirability of our brand. I am also very proud of how the e-building is progressing towards the inauguration expected in June next year. exactly two years later after our capital market day. After finishing the walls, we started already to install the equipment to produce the selected strategic component, and by Q1 2024, we will finalize the assembly line of the electric engine and e-axles. Talking about our product offering, last week, we unveiled two new standing models, both inspired by our racing DNA. In fact, the recent Finali Mondiali at our Mugello racetrack provided the ideal stage for the unveiling of the latest two additions to our portfolio. The first one is the 296 Challenge. It is an ICE car that makes full use of the experience and expertise gained by the company in the field of international GT racing. The result? is a car in several respects very close to the 296 GT3, which debuted in January 2023. And the second is the 499P Modificata. It is a strictly limited series truck car and the most high-performance closed-wheel car ever offered for gentlemen driver use and already fully allocated. We are the only brand offering its clients the possibility to drive the newest racing car only six months after the debut on the race track in Sebring, inaugurating the new Sport Prototipi Clienti program, which joins the F1 Client program. Once again, the Finale Mondiale, the unique reunion of the Ferrari community to celebrate the final events of our client experience on track, So, the participation of almost 30,000 motorsport enthusiasts among clients, tifosi and employees. And talking about our community, I'm also proud to mention that the Ferrari Gala, which took place in New York in mid-October, this event was an opportunity to highlight our brand's influence on sport cars, on racing, lifestyle and beyond, celebrating also the unique bond and share the values between Ferrari and the US, which goes back to the earliest days of our histories, in the 50s and those strong today. This event was an opportunity to share a series of unique experiences with such a passionate community. During this three-day exhibition, We got opportunity to get 130,000 visitors at New York City's Hudson Yards complex, the one that you are seeing now in your chart, and an exclusive charity auction during the Ferrari Gala dinners, which raised more than 7 million US dollars. And the funds will be devoted to projects supporting education in the community because we believe that giving back is a moral obligation. This quarter, we also had many client experiences on road, among which the Ferrari Cavalcade Classica and the first Ferrari Legacy Tour dedicated to the beautiful F40, which saw the participation of 40 owners of F40 from all over the world. Moving to the racing world, in the World Endurance Championship, After the victory at the 24 Hours of Le Mans, the Ferrari 499P confirmed to be competitive with a podium in Italy, a fourth and fifth place in Japan, and we are looking forward to our return to action for the grand finale of the season with the 8 Hours of Bahrain this coming weekend. In Formula 1, the recent podiums and improvements provide us the boost to prepare ourselves for the next season. Clearly, we need to keep improving and recover our technical gap. And thus, on one side, we are strengthening the team under Fred, and on the other side, we are enlarging our racing manufacturing infrastructure, which will grant us highest development speed and quality. I saw this facility this morning. We are also pleased with the renewal of the multi-year partnership with Puma, who becomes our Formula 1 premium partners, starting from next year. We also strengthened the licensing agreement with Puma for Ferrari branded products, and they became the suppliers of our racing teams and all other racing activities. Continuing on lifestyle, on top of this partnership I just mentioned with Puma, Ferrari showcased its latest spring-summer 2024 looks during the Milan Fashion Week, a powerful collection perceived from many editors as their absolute favorite so far. We also continue to strengthen our presence with successful activation in Pebble Beach and the New York brand event by creating our own pop-up for our clients to increase collection awareness and visibility. we registered a record level of visitors in our museum, reaching over 650,000 visitors since the beginning of January, confirming the strength of the brand and the passion of our community. For your reference, in the whole 2022, we had about 620,000 visitors. So we still have a couple of months to go till the year end. And before leaving the stage, to Antonio, one comment on our important sustainability journey. While many activities continue to run at factory level to address scope one and scope two emission, and we are looking carefully at energy efficiency and recycled material use, we are engaging our suppliers, our dealers, to address scope three emission. Indeed, last week, During our dealer annual meeting, for the first time, we also awarded the most active dealers in reducing their CO2 emissions with the Green Award. And we will keep this Green Award also for the years to come to keep our attention on this topic that is so important for our company. And then now I leave the stage to Antonio to enter into the earnings details.
speaker
Grazie Nicoletta
Thank you Benedetto and good morning or afternoon to everyone joining us today. Starting on page 4, we present the highlights of the third quarter results. A quarter which confirms the positive dynamics shown in the first part of the year and represents a further improvement compared to the expectations we had. Our strong business performance was sustained by a rich product and country mix and high personalizations leading to a remarkable double-digit growth in revenues, profitability, and industrial pre-cash flow generation. With shipments single-digit higher than last year, revenues were up roughly 24%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 37% with a 38.6% margin. Adjusted EBIT was up 42% with a 27.4 margin. supporting a strong industrial free cash flow generation of 300 million euro. On page five, you can see the details of the Q3 shipment. In the quarter, we continue to serve the highest order book that Benedetto commented and we are all very proud of. Backed by the above, shipment in the quarter reflected our volume and product allocation strategy for the year and biogeography. Thus, EMEA and Americas were up versus the prior year. Deliveries in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan decreased by a few tenths, and the rest of APAC was substantially flat year over year. All regions are up in the first nine months, with Americas benefiting from a larger share of allocations year over year and visibly supporting our margins. The increasing shipments were driven by the 296 and ESF-95. together with the A12 Competizione Aperta and the Puro Sangue, which were in their ramp-up phase. In the quarter, the F8 Spyder was approaching the end of its lifecycle, and the allocations of the Daytona SP3 continued in line with planning. Lastly, in the quarter, the hybrid weight on total deliveries further improved, reaching 51% and surpassing that of ICE for the first time. as a result of the SF90 and the 296 families contribution. On page six, you can see the net revenues bridge posting a strong 26% growth at cost and currency. The increasing cars and spare parts was driven by higher volumes, a richer product and country mix, as well as stronger personalizations and pricing. Personalizations further increased in absolute value in the quarter and reached approximately 19% in proportion to revenues from cars and spare parts, mainly driven by paint, liveries, and the use of carbon. Sponsorship, commercial, and brand reflected higher sponsorships, including Formula One and World Endurance Championship racing activities. and higher commercial revenues as a result of the better prior year Formula One ranking. Engines revenue declined in line with the reduction of supplies to Maserati. And please note that from Q1 2024, we'll stop reporting such item in the bridge analysis as a result of the supply agreement coming to its natural end. Currency had a negative net impact, this time mainly reflected the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen, and secondarily, the US dollar dynamic. Moving to page seven, the change in adjusted EBIT is explained by the following variances. Volume, positive and reflecting the increase in shipments. Mix and price, strongly positive for 170 million euro. thanks to this very favorable mix, both product mix, sustained by Daytona SP3, the A12 Competizione and the SF90 families, and country mix, driven by Americas. And obviously, to the increased contribution from personalizations and pricing. Industrial and R&D expenses grew 63 million euros, mainly due to higher depreciation and amortization, and raw materials and components cost inflation. SG&A were slightly negative for 10 million euro, mainly reflecting the company's operational development and digital infrastructure. Other was positive for 17 million euro, mainly reflecting higher commercial revenues from the better formula one ranking and new sponsorships. The total net impact of currencies was negative for €23 million. With the positive net support of these variances, we reached remarkable EBITDA and EBITDA margins that we mentioned. Turning to page 8, our industrial free cash flow generation for the quarter was strong at €301 million, reflecting the increased profitability partially offset by capital expenditure for 205 million euro in line with our product and infrastructure development and consistent with a full year target of approximately 850 million euro. An increase in net working capital which reflects a seasonal decrease of trade payables during the past summer as a result of our decision to carry higher inventories and accelerate our capital expenditure in the previous months. To be noted that the net contribution from advances collected on our future deliveries, including the start of range models in certain countries, was positive but very limited in the quarter. Net industrial debt at the end of September decreased to €233 million, reflecting the solid industrial free cash flow generation in the quarter, partially offset by €194 million of share repurchases. To conclude on page nine, we upgrade the guidance for the full year on the back of another very positive quarter. Q3 earnings was supported by an extremely favorable product and country mix enriched with personalizations. In addition, it benefited from timing on costs mainly related to racing in a more favorable US dollar dynamics compared to our previous expectations. We expect these positive contributions to be visible also in Q4, despite the planned lower volumes allocation, higher DNA linked to product life cycles, continuing inflationary pressure, as well as the significant seasonal increase in rating expenses. On one side, for the development costs for the 2024 home or one car, and on the other, the logistics expenses for the last overseas races or for the season. All of the above all goes well for 2024, and we are confident and ready in front of its challenges. As we anticipated during our Capital Market Day, next year we expect a normalized revenues growth after the very strong start of the business plan, which will be explained front-loaded. That said, we are obviously conscious of the strength of our margins, which is there and in line with our plan. Many thanks for your attention, and let me now turn the call over to Nicoletta.
speaker
Nicolette Rousseau
Thank you, Antonio. Nadia, we are now ready to start the Q&A session. Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Thank you, dear participants. If you wish to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. Now we're going to take our first question. And the first question comes from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
speaker
Adam Jonas
Hi. There was a bit of cutting out there. It's Adam Jonas. Can you hear me? Very well. Ciao, Adam. Oh, ciao, ciao. So the first question on your order book, you said that you don't expect the order book to grow because you're basically sold out. So does this mean that you're only going to take new orders at a pace that replaces your deliveries, or are you just not taking any new orders? And I'm just curious if this is unprecedented, or if you're aware, I know you're relatively new to Ferrari, but whether you're aware of the situation happening before.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
No, no, look, thanks for the question, Adam. So last year, in the last years, we had a strong increase of order book. We expect this order book not to grow at the same speed. for a couple of reasons. Number one, we are allocating the final tail of Puro Sangue, so it's almost gone, let's say, and we can take orders on the normal spiders. Clearly, we have the special version, but the special version, let's say, are all allocated, as well as the 499P Modificata. They are all allocated, but so. We remain confident about the traction of our cars. I was with at Finale Mondiale with many clients. There were 600 clients last weekend and they all were literally in love with our truck cars. And, but clearly the speed of growth or the road will not be the same as in the past. We have many things, let's say we have less model to offer to the client because they eagerly took everything we offered them. So it's a good challenge for us to keep, let me say, delighting them with unique cash.
speaker
Adam Jonas
Thanks, Benedetto. And maybe as a follow-up, can you remind us how that works for pricing, the mechanism from the time an order is placed? Let's say at the far end of your order book, late 2025, Tell us what is the expectation that one Ferrari customer would have for the price paid prior to configuring versus your ability to work with them, including potentially higher prices, not just because you can, because obviously you want the customer to promise a value, but just remind us during times when there's a very, very tight order book and it goes very, very long out, how Confirm that you don't lock in pricing and kind of historically how that could move. If you follow the logic of my question.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
I think I follow. What I want to tell you is that it's true the author book is pretty long. I have to say that during last years, we gave a clear priority to all our dealers to engage the client also with on one side experiences, on the other side is with the pre-owned cars. I have to say that, and that's also what I said to the dealer last week in Florence, I thanked them because they did what we were committing, what we were asking them to do. In terms of pricing flexibility, like you said, it's always you have to find the right balance in increasing the price of what is already contracted versus also not upsetting the client. I think we have the bond and let me say the link and understanding of the client is such that we can continue to manage it in the same way we did so far. So I do not expect, honestly, big troubles over there, Adam. Thanks, Benedetto. Thank you so much.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. And the next question comes from . Your line is open. Please ask a question.
speaker
spk07
Thank you very much. I have a couple of questions for you. I'd like to start first with the level of your revised 2023 targets when you compare it with the 2026 targets you've shown us at the investor day 18 months ago. So clearly you've done better than you were assuming for 22. You're going to do a lot better than you were assuming for 23. So the question is simply, is there a plan at one stage in February or maybe in June next year when we visit your in the plan to eventually raise the 26 targets or are you going to leave us with these 26 targets for longer? That's the first question. The second, you have fully sold everything you're going to make until the end of 2025. Can you talk about the impact this has on your residuals on existing vehicles on the road and share with us the share of used vehicle sales in your carbon spare parts revenues and explain us whether this is going to increase. Do you plan to control a higher proportion of your used car business in the future or not? Thank you.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
So I think the first one, Thomas, thanks for the question. So we confirm the plan we shared with you one year ago. uh you have to wait still let me say a few quarters more than your visit maybe next june before we update our our plan so this is uh we will not review this before 25 okay the year 25. so we keep we wanna we want to do what we committed in front of our shareholder to do in 2022 the second I will start and then Antonio will add as he believes appropriate. It's true that we are sold out, as I said. This is helping a lot on the pre-owned market. And I have to say that we see the pre-owned market pretty healthy. In some sense, yes, it can help to sell, you know, spare parts. But I would say that the thing that we see It's not happening as originally we planned at the beginning of the year. I mean, it's going better than we planned with the personalization. The spare part, correct me, Antonio, but it's pretty in line with what we saw, no? Absolutely.
speaker
Grazie Nicoletta
Maybe I can compliment on this. In terms of pre-owned vehicles that we sell, it's really limited to the that we use for our events, for introducing the car per se, but in terms of commercial strategy, so in terms of volume, it is really limited to a small number of pieces every year. In terms of interest for controlling the market, this is not for us. It's obviously for our dealer, and we encourage our dealers to become more and more present in the pre-owned business. That's certainly an area of further potential development for them.
speaker
spk07
Thank you very much. Can I maybe have just a quick follow-up? Would it make sense for you, given that you've already sold almost everything you're going to make, to already start selling the BEV products you plan to show us in 2025 before showing it to customers? Or do you want to show it first to customers?
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
No, no, we will show the BEV in Q4 2025. So everyone will see, let me say, in that quarter. Apart from the people that are working here, obviously, to make it happen. So thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just a moment. And the next question comes from Stefan Reitman from Societe Generale. If the line is open, please ask a question.
speaker
Stefan Reitman
Thank you very much. I question first of all on the guidance for 2023. Just a bit of simple maths. It seems to be that after a 28% margin, adjusted operating margin in the first nine months of the year, if we take the lower end of the 26.5%, at least 26.5% or more, That suggests that the margin could be as low as 22% in the fourth quarter, which seems very, very low compared to the momentum you've shown and the kind of maybe the sort of currency adjusted underlying margin of 29%, 29.4% that you showed in the third quarter or FX impacts and hedges. So we could maybe talk about the headwinds that you're anticipating in the fourth quarter. Obviously, we know there's a very conservative guidance you always give. And my second question is about Formula One. And could you update us on the status of how you are with – have you fully now replaced all the sponsorship that you lost? Obviously, Mission Winner and Velas. Now you have a full roster, including your main sponsor. I saw you talk on Virtual Gaming World. But does that now mean now that your car is fully liveried and you have everything you need? Thank you.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
I think the second one, Stefan, thanks for the question, and then I will ask Antonio to comment on the first one. So let me say it this way. In the last three years, we have been able to lower the depend, sponsorship-wise. We have been able to lower the dependence on, let me say, on a single sponsor, okay? So if in the past this single sponsor was accounting for more than 60% of revenues now, if I take the biggest sponsor in our basket is no more than 13, 14%. So I would say that on the sponsorship wise, we've been able to enlarge the sponsor base by lowering also the dependence on a big one. So this is the answer to the formula one. And then Antonio.
speaker
Grazie Nicoletta
Stephen, hi. I think the reasoning is the one I try and explain in words in my speech. If you look at Q4, what is different compared to the previous quarter is in terms of volumes, lower allocations to the fourth quarter already designed that way since the beginning of the year. Secondly, we have a specificity in terms of the overall seasonality of the spending, particularly R&D expense to the P&L for racing. If we normalize for that, even at the EBIT margin level, we get much more in line with the rest of the year. In addition, if you go to the EBIT margin level, then you should take into consideration that DNA are going to grow in the Q4, and this is due to two elements. One is the start of production of a couple of new models, and the second one is some project that we are going to start depreciating and that is more related to our infrastructural development of these elves thank you and thanks for for a compliment on being conserved conservative thank you now we're going to take our next question just give us a moment
speaker
Operator
And the next question comes to the line of Giulio Pescatore from BNP Paribas. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
speaker
Giulio
Hi, thanks for taking my question. And first one, I want to come back on a comment made by one of your competitors. I know you don't comment on competitors, but it was striking because they were calling out weakness in luxury cars demand, especially in North America. And what they said, it's in very stark contrast with whatever you're saying today. So I'm not asking you to comment on competition, but just what do you think is making the difference here? Why your demand is so much healthier and resilient than some of your peers? Then second one, just a clarification, the truck cars you launched, those don't count towards the 15 models expected to be launched by 2026 and the four models for this year. Just a clarification on that. And then very last one, the 499P,
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
i mean can you give us an indication of volumes and price and when do you expect deliveries to happen and is there any reason to expect this car to be less profitable than than the limited edition ones you have launched in the past thank you so i started from uh so these two cars they count in the 15 models also because uh despite the fact that they look like something else i mean we have to put a lot of uh you know resources in engineering in in managing these products. So they count. You know, the 296 challenge is only ICE, is not hybrid. Well, but there has been a lot of work done by our colleagues in engineering in the factory to make it happen. The 499P modificata, it's a cast that comes in few tenths of it, and it is a cast that, as I said, will offer our gentlemen drivers the possibility to try the same experience of our, let me say, pilots that won a few months ago in Le Mans. And I would say that I want to share with you this comment that I heard from the gentlemen drivers I heard in Mugello last week. They were very, very happy to have the possibility to test themselves on a racetrack with a car that, by the way, does not have even the balance of performance. So if, let's say, our drivers, when they are racing in the World Endurance Championship, you know, there is a balance of performance. So they cannot go faster than they would like. The gentlemen drivers, since it is in its own, it can do even faster. So you can enjoy even more the speed of this car. And then the first question, why we believe we are resilient? I would like to answer the question, the answer, sorry, in two parts. I think when we talk about Ferrari car, we are talking about an ultra luxury car that is also addressing maybe demographics that is different from other brands, but the second, I have been in these three years, two years, I have seen and I've met many people that are touching our brand, the Prancing Horse. And I have seen an attachment, a sense of bonding that is really unique. I mean, I was in Mugello last weekend. I was in Temple Beach. And I can tell you, Giulio, that right after the car was shown, it was fully allocated. I mean, the car, there was a client close to me. There was a client close to me that started to cry. So, literally. So it's, you know, the bond we have with our customer, I think, is something unique and for which I will never, I will always, let me say, thank them. Clearly, our people are doing their best, but our clients are trusting us, and I would always thank them for this kind of trust. So this is the long answer to your question. We are talking about different kinds of people. We are talking about the kind of unique sense of belonging, sense of bonding of this client to our brand.
speaker
Giulio
Very clear. I hope he didn't start crying because he saw the price tag. But yeah, thank you. Bye bye.
speaker
George
Ciao.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. And the question comes from Monica Bosio from . Hello.
speaker
Monica Bosio
Okay, thank you very much, and thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on the shipment allocation for the next year. I know that you cannot disclose it, but I just was wondering if you are still keen to keep a share towards China in the region of 10% or more? My second question is on the SF90XX. Are you planning to get some advances in 2024 from the SF90XX? And the very last one is an housekeeping question on the financial charges. Can you, Antonio, explain it better, the impact Are the financial charges tied in the third quarter and an expectation, rough expectation for the full year, please?
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
Okay, Monica, so SF90XX, yes, we'll take an advance payment in 2024. The rest is Antonio.
speaker
Grazie Nicoletta
Yeah, absolutely. In China, I think we speak to what we said at the Capital Market Day. I mean, for us, China is a market around 10% in terms of share of our annual delivery in 2024. For the next year. Yeah. In terms of the impact of the purchase of the bond, it created a gain on sale, which is simply due by the difference between the pricing of the bond at the time we booked it and the pricing at the time we repurchased it. So it's an 8 million euro financial income that we booked in Q3, which is reducing the financial charges net for the first nine months. As a result, for the rest of the year, we expect to be much lower compared to what we were used to in the previous years.
speaker
Monica Bosio
So about half the amount. Okay. It's just for the bond. Okay. Thank you.
speaker
Grazie Nicoletta
You're welcome.
speaker
Monica Bosio
Thank you very much.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. And the next question comes from from UBS. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
speaker
spk05
Hello. Thanks for taking my question. My first one is about inflation because you, once again, have been mentioning how inflation has been, it remains a headwind. And it's been now, well, 11 months since your price increase earlier in the year. So I was wondering if it's something that you're contemplating for next year or, if you prefer to adjust to the pricing of the new cars, so purely to the mix. Secondly, when we think about your medium-term guidance and what has changed since the capital markets day, I guess on the positive side, we have seen a very resilient demand, better personalization trends, these price increases. And while on the negative side, it's been mostly the higher inflation, Is this the right way to think about this moving part or is there something else we should take into account? And then thirdly, a more technical question, but can you give us some color on why your gross margin was much weaker in this third quarter despite the very strong mix? Thank you.
speaker
Grazie Nicoletta
Antonio, you take the question? Yeah, sure. Inflation assumption. We are thinking of price increase next year. I think we do not have just pricing for cars. I mean, our overall revenues are much wider in principle to the extent needed and subject to the conditions that Benedetto mentioned during his first answer today. I think we remain flexible and look at how costs are proceeding in order to move pricing and eventually take a decision on that going forward. Second, I think you really named which are the main different elements compared to what we had in mind at the Capital Market Day last year. And so far, I think the overall impact, particularly of personalization and pricing on new model has more than offset the debt coming from cost inflation. Gross margin weaker, it depends really You should not look at that on a quarterly basis. Overall, the product mix and the country mix during a single quarter may make a difference, obviously, together with the level of personalization of the cars entailed. So, take a look at that, but look at that on a wider period of time, and you'll see a certain improvement nine months over nine months.
speaker
Operator
Okay, thanks. Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. And our next question comes from the line of George Galeas from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
speaker
George Galeas
Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. The first question I had was just with respect to how to think about mix in 2024. Obviously, a lot of exciting products are come, and you're in the process of ramping the and the . Is it safe to assume that MIX next year should be positive relative to this year, given that product cadence? And the second question I had, Bernadette, if I may, was with respect to the electric Ferrari that you mentioned earlier, obviously a very exciting product for Ferrari. However, a few other luxury premium car makers have noted that at the very top end of their product ranges, The customers, particularly in China, have a strong preference for internal combustion engines. As similar to a watch, they believe the mechanical elements have a higher level of craftsmanship and value compared to electric and digital offerings. To the extent you have discussed the Ferrari EV with certain customers as a project, have you received any similar feedback or do you believe that whatever car Ferrari produces will have similar level of desirability? irrespective of the power plant that you put in it. Thank you.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
So I take the second one. So let me make an introduction, George. I think that, you know, you have to look at the way you use the technology. The technology may be the same, but what is making the difference between one company and another is the way you use the technologies. Today there are many objects, I don't mention which ones, beyond the cars that are all using the same technology, but at the end of the story, one is more successful than the others. It depends how close, how that product is addressing the real, in that case, needs of the final client. What I can tell you, what I can tell you, and is one of the question also, you know, I am asking the client, what is their feedback when they ask some other electric cars, well it clears two things one we in our company did well in 2022 during the capital market day to to tell that we will make the three kind of propulsion the red i see the blue the ivory and the green why because we want to leave this freedom to the client and two we have a client and that's what they are telling me some of them They will not take the electric car. Some others will take both, okay? Some others will get into Ferrari world, Ferrari family, I would like to say, because of electric car. I have in mind three clients, okay, with whom I had a dinner. They were saying, you know, I'm pushing out for sustainability. I'm pushing a lot in my family. I have a company. I created a company in this direction. For me, the way to get in this beautiful, fantastic family is through the electric Ferrari. I cannot get in without electric Ferrari. So we will have three kinds of people, and that's the reason why the recent development on technology landscape, I think it's giving, it's a good confirmation of our strategy. And I have to say that if you want the experience I had in other business to manage the technology transition has been helping and it will help in this direction. The first one, the product mix.
speaker
Grazie Nicoletta
Hi, George. I think it's maybe too early to speak about 2024 in such a detail since we haven't finalized the allocation. But if you ask me, we have feeling where we should be considering the product range that we have. and obviously assuming same level of personalization, I should bet at least on having the same similar mix to this year. So not such a jump that we are witnessing in 2023 compared to 2022. We know that last year was mainly a volume here. The product mix this year is much richer. Next year will be too, but not at the same distance as we witnessed from last year to this one.
speaker
George
Great. Thank you very much.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just a moment. And the next question comes from from . Your line is open. Please ask your question.
speaker
spk09
Thank you very much. Good morning, good afternoon, everybody. I have one short-term and one long-term question. The first is on the full year guidance. because you revised upwards by more or less 100 million euros this year, your EBDA guidance. And considering the drivers you commented, I don't know if I'm right, but I suppose Formula One, okay, was positive, but small. Personalization is by far the most important contributor because, in my view, the mix was already predefined at the beginning of the year, so you know exactly more or less what to produce. So am I right in assuming that the personalization is the big difference between the starting guidance and the current one? And still on the margin is the Puro Sangue now is in ramp-up phase, probably finalized the ramp-up. Should we assume is accretive in terms of margins? And if you have an update on the volumes that you expect Last time you guided for less than 10% of total. I don't know if there is a more precise indication at this point of the year.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
So, Martino, I think the second one and the first, Antonio. So, first of all, we said 20% of the years. That's the limit of the prosangue, no? Yes, we are in ramp-up phase, but we expected that the margin are in line with the rest of the family. Okay?
speaker
Grazie Nicoletta
And on the first one, Mattino, yeah, I think you mentioned personalization is probably the main positive surprise that we had. It's also fair to acknowledge the fact that we had a positive support also for ID rate compared to our initial expectations. That obviously helped.
speaker
spk09
Okay. So I was referring on the volumes for the current year for the Puro Sangue. because this year obviously is by far less than 20%. So I remember maybe I'm wrong.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
Okay. Thank you, Martino. I misunderstood because for the year to come, the limit is 20%. Yeah. This year will be lower because it's ramped up. Yes.
speaker
spk09
Okay. And the long-term question is, I know you do not want to comment on your 2026 guidance, but consensus is already in the region of 2.9, 3 billion EBITDA. So what are your thoughts about this projection for consensus, both Bloomberg, both FACSET, and I suppose all the providers?
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
Look, I think I have to reply in the same way I replied to your colleague. So we will upgrade and review the messaging, let's say the plan, in 2025. I think that now we are fully, I like to say, Martino, that we are four wheels on the ground to make it happen, the plan that we shared with you. So let's keep going with four wheels on the ground. Okay. Thank you, Benedetto. Thank you, Martino. Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Now we're going to take our next question. And the next question comes from Helen from Berkeley. So the line is open. Please ask a question.
speaker
spk02
Yeah. Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I think both have become follow-up questions by now, but I'm going to try and ask anyway. So the first one on the personalization, again, I think last time we discussed that you have about three months of visibility, and it's great to see that you've now, even drifted to the top end of the usual range of 17% to 19%. I believe you said 19% for the Q3. The question is, how do you see that trending into 2024? I think previously you were expecting this to perhaps even go to the bottom end or outside the bottom end of the range, but the dynamics seem to suggest it's going in the more positive direction, if anything. So if you could please comment on if you have changed your view as to how you see that develop going forward. And the second question, I guess, again, on the mix, maybe I can ask a bit more specifically because we're all, I think, scratching our head about the strength in 24 when you have the Daytona volumes. Maybe we could start there if you could say, is it going to be a lot more Daytonas or will you perhaps continue with the run rate of 30 or so per quarter in 24 as well and stretch it? over a longer period because now with the SF90X axis and also the 299 modificators, the 296 challenges, it seems there might be a pretty big jump actually, Antonio, if you allow me relative to your earlier comment.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
Look, we have, we confirmed that for the Daytona will be around 34 per quarter. So it's exactly in line with what we saw, what we said before. When it comes instead to percentage of personalization, we expect these 19% of Q3 to be more in the range of 18%.
speaker
Grazie Nicoletta
Maybe you recall I mentioned that capital market day that we were planning around 17%, which was the usual run rate. And this is actually one of the reasons we have been positively surprised this year. We have seen a stronger penetration of personalization and of rich personalization in the current product range. It is difficult to bet as of now. This is a continuation of this trend for the following month, given the reduced visibility that we have. So that's the answer of Benedetto reflects that view.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
Yeah, we can also say now that we are preparing, but we want, at the end of the story, the client, and we are planning for this, let's say, 18%. Yeah.
speaker
spk02
Thank you. And just to clarify, the 30 to 40-day toners, that's also your target run rate for 2024, correct?
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
Yeah, yeah, that was the answer, yeah, 34 per quarter also next year.
speaker
spk02
Okay, and some allocation of the modificata as well already next year, the 499?
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
We will start, but I don't want to be too much specific on the quarter, but sure. I mean, we will start also, let's say, we will start also the 499P modificata.
speaker
spk02
Very helpful. Thank you.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. And the next question comes from the line of Anthony Dick from OdoBHF. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
speaker
Anthony Dick
Yes. Hi. My first question is on the residual values and the preowned market, which you've already alluded to. So we've seen a correction in the residual values in the past few months, still above pre-COVID levels, and you described them as healthy, but still trending down a bit. So I know this is an important indicator for you. So I'd be interested in having your view on this and how does it affect your volume strategy going into 2024? Obviously not a topic for the limited series or the pure sangway, but I was wondering if you could comment, for example, on the demand and order momentum for your more accessible models like the Roma Spider. And then I have a second quick question on the decision to approve the use of cryptocurrency for the purchases. So could you maybe provide some color on the extent to which you think this can enlarge your customer base? And also as a follow-up, these cryptocurrency investors are not always perceived as the most stable customers. So how do you intend on managing this? Do you think it could create more volatility in your residual values? Thank you.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
Okay. So for the cryptocurrency, we do not expect to create any volatility because at the end of the story, there will be a conversion one-to-one real time. What I can tell you, and I was discussing with the responsible, the commercial and marketing officer here, we already started to have some clients. And I have to say, not only the people below 35 years old or the 40 that are taking their own, let's say, the present order with the cryptocurrency. It seems to, what I think that, I mean, from the first signal, it is very well appreciated. And so I think it was a good move to allow people to be, let's say, to enter our family or to use the cryptocurrency to pay for a Ferrari because we make easier the process. And they also appreciate the fact that we use the cryptocurrency, that by using it, a state let's say is pretty much sustainable okay the proof of proof of stake instead of proof of work it allows to to be sustainable when it comes instead to the pre-honored well what i can tell you is two things one we did in our history many models 250 models if i consider it since the beginning for us they are all important the new and the previous one We have to, the Roma Spyder is the new, the pre-owned are the previous one. Well, they are all important for us, and we need and we will take more and more care of them. We want to increase the share of the pre-owned cars that go through our official dealers. We want to make sure that the car that go through great dealers is reducing more and more. And what we are doing with the team here on the commercial side is exactly meant to reach this goal. I also have to say, and I want to share with you, that when I visited some dealerships in the last quarters, it's becoming more and more frequent that the dealers are having people whose MBO, whose yearly KPI are based on the pre-owned car that they keep purchasing. So I think there is even more and more attention also from our dealers and clearly also from us because we will keep always the number of cars limited. So, as I said, the new car we make as well as the one that our colleague before us, they have the same dignity and they must be cared in the same way like being all children of the same family.
speaker
George
Thank you. Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Now we're going to take our last question. Just a moment. The last question for today comes from John Murphy from Bank of America. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
speaker
John Murphy
Good afternoon, everybody. Benedetto, just to kind of follow up to that and sort of follow up to your backlog being so strong, you think about price and mix. I mean, there's an opportunity to manage that sort of on an interim basis. But over time, do you think you need sort of the quote-unquote entry-level product like Aroma? I mean, it's a beautiful vehicle, but, I mean, would that be the kind of product that might not make it into the product portfolio in the next, you know, three to five years? And then a second question, as you see the strength in the used market, is there a possibility to start doing personalization in the used market? maybe around wheels and interiors. Obviously, you can't do paint there, or maybe you could. It could actually augment revenue and support residuals further in the secondary market.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
Thank you, John, for the question. Yes, I start from the second one. Using the market, we see this trend also to do personalization of the pre-owned. They may change the rim. They may change something in the interior. But also some clients, they want to add, for example, some protective layers on the paint. Last week, I was visiting the location where we apply this protecting layer, and one of these cars was exactly a pre-owned car that was where we were applying a protective layer. The second, I believe that the Roma is a good entry model. uh i think that we don't need to go lower i think that the strategy for a company like us that is playing i would say in the ultra luxury space is such that we needed to make our car always more and more emotional always more and more unique in terms of performance in terms of let me say uh astonishing design and always having in mind the sustainability i think these are there are you know there are three wheels that must work in the same way at the same speed the driving emotion the driving trails the performance driven by engineering and the beauty of the car driven by design these are the three wheels that will keep considering and i think we already have an entry level that is roma
speaker
George
Okay, great. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Dear speakers, I don't have further questions for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Benedetto Vigna for any closing remarks.
speaker
Benedetto Vigna
So thank you all for your time today and also for your very insightful question. Thanks a lot. The strong Q3 result and also the durability of the brand that we've been debating during this one hour, are basically fueling our confidence for the development of the year and also looking forward so thanks a lot again and i wish you a good afternoon or morning thank you so much that does conclude our conference for today thank you for participating you may now all disconnect have a nice
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