RBC Bearings Incorporated

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for RBC Bearing's Fiscal Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. I'm Rob Moffitt, Director of Corporate Development and Investor Relations, and with me on today's call are Dr. Michael Hartnett, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, Dan Bergeron, Director, Vice President, and Chief Operating Officer, and Rob Sullivan, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, some of the statements made today may be forward-looking and are made under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors. We refer you to RBC Bearing's recent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact the company's future operating results and financial condition. These factors are also listed in the press release along with the reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial information. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Hartnett.

Thank you, Rob, and good morning. I'm going to start today's call with a quick review of our financial results, and I'll finish with some high-level thoughts on the industry and the outlook for the remainder of fiscal 25. And I'll hand it over to Rob Sullivan for some more detail on the numbers. Third quarter net sales came in at 394 million, a 5.5% increase over last year. driven by continued strong performance in our aerospace and defense segment. Total aerospace and defense sales were up 10.7% year over year, with a 14.6% growth on the commercial aerospace side and a 3% growth in defense. On the industrial side, the segment grew 2.7% year over year, with distribution and aftermarket up 8% and OEM down 8%. Altogether, it was a solid quarter, so I'm going to talk about some underlying trends. In aerospace and defense, we did a good job mitigating the impact from the strikes of Boeing and Textron during the quarter. Quarter-by-quarter cadence across commercial aerospace has been lumpy through our fiscal 2025. And I'm sure that's no surprise to anyone on this call. I would encourage you to focus on the total segment trend, which is 10.7% growth for the quarter and a 15.5% growth year to date. And these are solid performance numbers. Growth in the case of defense was limited by capacity and not demand. In fact, demand is extraordinary. We are adding capacity as we speak. And adding capacity means hiring and training staff, expanding supply chain, and we are currently building plants. I want to take a second to commend the teams managing our customers, plants, people, and production schedules. There's a lot of work put into rebalancing our production cadence. in order to smooth some of the customer volatility over the past two quarters. Maintaining level operating loads in our plant, that is balancing load against cost, is a critical part of RBC's performance and continues to be a key contributor to our long-term gross margin expansion. On the industrial side, we were excited to see this segment return to growth. While our OEM business was down for the period, the bulk of the contraction came from the oil and gas category. Additionally, headwinds were also seen, but to a lesser extent, in the construction and semiconductor machinery manufacturing. We saw encouraging signs in the aftermarket of aggregate and cement, mining and metals, food and beverage, and grain. Several markets grew up well into the double digits, yielding a net gain of 8% over the period, evidence of how even a modest USA GDP expansion can be very impactful to this sector. Excluding the oil and gas influence, our industrial sector expanded at a 4.4% rate. Overall, the continued tailwinds of industry-leading service levels, organic growth, synergies and favorable end market mix came together and put us well into the green on revenues, margins, cash flow for the quarter, which was a quarter that's the most challenging of the four to navigate. Gross margin for the quarter came in at $175 million, or 44.3% of sales, a 205 basis point increase year over year. The biggest drivers of our margin expansion continue to be increased absorption of our aerospace and defense capacity, ongoing synergies with Dodge, and a wide range of smaller continuous improvement projects plant by plant basis we continue to identify through our RBC ops management process. Adjusted net income of $73 million was up 34.7% year over year, and that translated to an adjusted EPS of 2.34 per share compared to last year's 185 for a growth of 26.5%. Cash from operations came in at $84 million and compares to $80 million last year, and pre-cash flow of $74 million was up nicely versus the $71 million last year. We used our cash to continue to deleverage the balance sheet with an impressive $100 million of net reduction in the quarter, taking our trailing net leverage to 1.8 turns. As many of you know, RBC is a cash flow rich business. Since we acquired Dodge, we committed nearly all of our cash generation to deleveraging the balance sheet. The 2.0 mark that divided by EBITDA was an important milestone, and I'm excited we were able to achieve it in just three years. Also, with our preferred dividend now gone, we are excited to recapture $23 million in annual expense back into our cash flow and further accelerate additional debt repayment going forward. In terms of our outlook, Our A&D business remains on a path towards mid-teens growth for the full year. The industrial business should finish the year roughly flat with a healthy second half exit to the year. With the new calendar year, the election behind us, many of you asked for my thoughts on the new administration and what it might mean for RBC. I've done a little bit of thinking on the topic. And this is where I come out. In terms of our end markets, I don't think it changes much for commercial aerospace. The drivers here have been supply chain challenges and the broader issues at Boeing. But from what I can see, there appears to be a nice progress in addressing some of these issues, and I'm optimistic that it continues. If that happens, we should stand to benefit from some wonderful counts in the commercial aerospace business as we progress through calendar 2025, our fiscal 2026. We continue to expect strong secular growth beyond 25, fueled by record bookings, backlogs at Boeing and Airbus, who together have 12 years of demand sitting on their order books and build rates that need to move higher. On the defense side, with the current geopolitical backdrop, and with the Republicans in charge of the House, Senate, and executive branch, it seems likely that the U.S. defense spending will accelerate over the next four years. And in terms of international defense spending, EU members are increasingly investing 2% of GDP level and are now debating if it needs to be 3%, with Trump arguing that it should be 5%. I can't tell you exactly where things are going to shake out, but I suspect there's a good odds that it will eventually be higher than it's been at any time in post-Cold War history. In the industrial business, we continue to hear from customers and distributor partners the following. Since the election, there has been a risk step-up in quoting for new projects. Clearly, there's no mistake we are moving into a drill baby drill period where renewable energy sources are out of favor worldwide. Hooray for common sense. Where has it been? Confidence seems to have returned and a future lowering of interest rates appears to be inevitable. Our third quarter is a good indicator of the impact of GDP growth on our industrial aftermath. Tariffs certainly add both spice and fuel to our business outlook, all of which are strongly a net good for RBC. The last area worth touching on is M&A. With our net leverage down to 1.8 times, we are well prepared for the next opportunity and remain busy assessing candidates. With just one more quarter left in our fiscal 2025, our attention is beginning to focus on next year. If the current trend holds, it's likely that fiscal 2026 could offer an environment where all three of our end markets are growing in unison. It's too early to provide a concrete outlook, but that is the backdrop by which we are putting budgets together for fiscal 2026. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Rob Sullivan for more details on the financial performance.

Thank you, Mike. As Dr. Hartnett indicated, this was another strong quarter for RBC. Net sales growth of 5.5% drove gross margin growth of 10.6%, with more than 200 basis points of percentage expansion. The quarter benefited from some favorable product mix and strong manufacturing performance on the industrial side. Those factors were in addition to the more structural drivers of our gross margin performance, including ongoing synergies and increased utilization of our aerospace and defense manufacturing assets. On the SG&A line, we continued our investments in future growth. This includes a combination of investing in personnel costs and back office support, including IT licenses and This resulted in adjusted EBITDA of 122.6 million, up 12% year-over-year, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.1%, which was up 180 basis points year-over-year. Interest expense in the quarter was 14.2 million. This was down 26.4% year-over-year, reflecting the ongoing repayment of our term loan, as well as a lower rate on the loan as the SOFR base rate has moved lower. The tax rate in our adjusted EPS calculation 22.2%, reasonably consistent versus last year's 21.3%. Altogether, this led to an adjusted diluted EPS of $2.34, representing growth of 26.5% year over year, an impressive result given some of the choppiness in commercial aerospace customer production schedules and the macroeconomic softness in the industrial economy. Pre-cash flow in the quarter came in at $73.6 million, with conversion of 127% and compares to $70.9 million and 152% last year. As usual, we used a meaningful portion of the cash generated to continue to leverage the balance sheet. We repaid $100 million of debt during the quarter, taking our total year-to-date debt reduction on the facilities to $195.4 million. And in terms of our free cash flow generation going forward, the October 15th automatic conversion of our mandatory convertible preferred stock removed the cash dividend payment reducing our future total cash outlays by approximately $23 million on an annualized basis. This is roughly 9.5% of fiscal 24's total free cash flow. With our trailing net leverage now at 1.8 turns and heading even lower going forward, our balance sheet is in an increasingly attractive position to pursue additional accretive M&A, and our team remains busy growing our funnel of potential deal flow. Looking into the fourth quarter, we are guiding to revenues of $434 to $444 million, representing year-over-year growth of 4.9% to 7.3%. That guidance embeds an operating environment that's fairly similar to the fiscal third quarter. On the gross margin side, we were projecting gross margins of 44% to 44.5%, which would be an increase of roughly 115 basis points year-over-year at the midpoint. And for SG&A, we expect SG&A as a percentage of sales to be between 16% and 16.5% range during the fourth quarter. In closing, this was another strong quarter for RBC. We remain focused on leveraging our core strengths in engineering, manufacturing, and product development to drive both organic and inorganic growth, continued margin excellence, and high levels of free cash flow conversion. With that, operator, please open the call for Q&A.

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is from Pete Skibitsky with Alembic Global. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, good morning, guys. Nice performance. Mike Collins. Mike, I'll echo you that it was good to see industrial return to growth. Um, can you talk more about oil and gas, kind of what you saw in the quarter that was, you know, was it, was it lack of spending because of the election? And then when you talk about increased code activity and industrial, does that, does that include oil and gas?

Yeah. Um, well on the oil and gas side of side of things, the, um, That's a boom or bust industry, and when it's booming, they want materials faster than you can make materials, and they ultimately over-order their materials because the trees never stop growing. And so the trees stopped growing, and they had too many materials, so it's really an inventory. We're studying it, and, you know, it'll blend down over the next, you know, nine months and sort of get back to a more normal level. But, you know, basically we had a few customers who overordered. Got it. Okay, makes sense.

Just to give you a little more color on that, this is Rob Moffitt. At X, the oil and gas, I win that OEM business. We've been down about 2, 2.5%. big chunk of that delta in the industrial world, guys.

Gotcha. That's helpful, guys. I appreciate it. And then just, you know, everybody's going to be worried going into the weekend about this tariff issue. Mike, you don't sound too worried. Can you give us more color in terms of, you know, what allows you to retain confidence that that won't be a major roadblock for you?

Yeah, sure. Well, I mean, it's Mexico and China, really, right? I mean, that's issues. First of all, our Mexico plants, we have three plants in Mexico. The materials are shipped in from the U.S. The value added is minimal. And then they're shipped back out. So any tariff that's applied to Mexico will be easily absorbed. It's just not it's not that big a number. It'll easily be absorbed in our cost structure and passed along in our price. It's a non-issue. The other part of Mexico is our commercial contracts where we actually sell product out of Mexico directly to customers. Our contracts have traders in them which anticipate some government action that's unforeseen. And it allows us to renegotiate our contract. And how did we learn that? Well, we learned that during the pandemic when they showed up at the plant with guns drawn and shut down our plants. So we decided, you know, it would be nice to have a clause in these contracts going forward to say if there's anything crazy like that that happens between the governments, that there's a way to mitigate our business model. So, yeah, that's kind of baked into our contracts. And also, for the most part, our contracts for commercial items are FOV plans. And I'm sure we have belts and suspenders on this thing as far as that's concerned. Now, China is another issue. And if Trump does his 10% tariff on China, I will be incredibly disappointed. I mean, all the huffing and puffing he did, and he's going to do 10%. First of all, 10%, we won't even feel it in our numbers. It's just, it would be insignificant. If he does 50%, and he puts the same program in place he's putting in place for the steel industry, for the bearing industry, what do you think is going to happen to bearings? Probably a shortfall, right? Shortfall. What happens, you know, supply and demand? How about that equation? How does that balance out? So, you know, it's going to follow the same path as the steel industry if there's a very strong tariff. I'm praying for a strong tariff.

Got it. Got it. Okay. Okay, that's very helpful. I appreciate the whole context.

And I think one other thing – You know, there's, you know, RBC is a made-in-the-USA company for the most part. You know, we make our products here. I mean, there's some augmentation by other, you know, by foreign sources, but not a lot and nothing that we can't recover with our own plants. So we make it here, and for the most part, more or less, we sell 90% of our sales are here. That's a big distinction between us and what other people consider as our fears.

Very helpful. Very helpful. I'll end on a defense note and maybe a less controversial one. You've talked about the need to increase submarine capacity. I think you've hinted that you need to increase munitions capacity as well. I'm just wondering if you can update us on the CapEx impact and the schedules for your capacity expansion and defense.

Yeah, well, you won't, the CapEx will be, won't be extraordinary. Um, you know, we, we, uh, as far as the submarine business is concerned, we're, we're, um, yeah, we're, we're, we're building out a, um, a hundred thousand plus plant in Tucson. Um, it's a leased building, so there's no, no, um, brick and mortar there. And, um, we'll move machinery from one of the Tucson plants into this third plant over the course of the year and allow more manufacturing capacity inside the base Tucson plant for the submarine business. So that's ongoing. The capital impact is well within our normal capital budget.

Okay. And that sounds like not something that would take a long time, I guess, is the first point. The second point is I guess the pre-cash flow drop-down should be pretty strong, I would think.

Yeah. It's going to be the same as it's been.

Great. Thanks for the call. I appreciate it, guys. Yep.

Thank you. Our next question is from Steve Barger with KeyBank Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.

Thanks. Good morning.

Good morning, Steve.

Mike, I know it's early to talk about fiscal 26, but you did mention how comps and conditions should allow for strong growth in aerospace. Just based on what you know now about demand and your capacity, are you thinking mid-teen growth against the mid-teens comp, or does the growth rate actually accelerate? I guess just trying to figure out how good you think this could be.

Now, we're talking about Commercial aerospace, right?

I guess the segment of aerospace.

Yeah, okay. It's going to be very good. Let's put it this way. We're at 15%. Boeing really hasn't been building airplanes.

Right, so you can layer that. If nothing else changes, it just accelerates the growth rate.

Yeah, if nothing else changes, it just accelerates.

We have a lot of content on those plans. Yeah.

Yeah, it's 15% for commercial aerospace should be a – I don't want to say it's a floor because I think a floor should be higher. I mean, it's going to be.

And presumably, and I'm not trying to nail you down to anything, but just based on the conditions, the 12-year backlog that you talked about, like, this shouldn't end anytime soon. You should have, you know, not to put words in your mouth, but like you, you, you must have as good a visibility right now into aerospace as you've had in a long time.

Yeah. I mean, our visibility to the air in the aerospace is, is the same as everybody else. As we look at Boeing skyline and, you know, we say a little Maldina to hope they make it. And, and that all happens for us. That's where the risk is. I mean, our, We have contracts in place with Boeing through 2030 for all of our stuff. So all they have to do is make the plane and we'll send them the components they need. So it's really in there.

Understood. And similar question for industrial. If I heard you right, you said 4% growth, X oil and gas this quarter. If we assume oil and gas gets back to growth, does this feel like we're heading back to a mid-single-digit kind of growth environment for industrial, just as you think about the sentiment, the quoting activity that you've talked about, how you think the administration is going to proceed?

Yes, I would say that's right. I think oil and gas, from what we know about inventories and absorption rates, is going to take a little bit longer It'll phase in at the end of the year.

Understood. Thanks very much. Yep.

Thank you. Our next question is from Michael Carmoli with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question. Michael, is your line on mute?

Oh, sorry. Can you guys hear me now? Yes. Thanks for taking questions. Nice results. Hey, Mike, just to maybe stay on that line, I guess first with oil and gas, I mean, you mentioned the drill, baby drill. Are you kind of seeing any tangible changes? of more planned spending? I mean, if we do see a pretty steep reduction in oil prices, I mean, or energy prices, these companies usually aren't incentivized to spend. They want to, you know, continue to deploy capital to shareholders. So do you really think you see large-scale projects pick up in that kind of environment?

Well, hard to say. I mean, you've got two questions. Forces and balance there, right? Consumption and supply. There always seems to be a problem with supply. Whether it's a war or it's an embargo or it's something else, there always seems to be an interruption that's unpredictable that changes the game for a year or two. So I think it needs something like that to accelerate it, but I wouldn't rule something like that out.

Okay, fair. And then just a follow-up on where Steve was going with Arrow. I'll put words in your mouth. If 15% is a four next year, how do we think about your contract renewals that have been coming due? Do you kind of maybe juice any growth rate a bit with some pricing on top of the volume, assuming Boeing, Airbus, and the supply chains kind of start to normalize here?

You know, our current contracts term out at the end of 26 with Boeing. I think Airbus, too. I'm sure Airbus. So the new contracts and the new pricing and the new mix takes effect January of 26. So yeah, and it's better. Okay. Let's put it this way. Since the old contracts were signed, the producer price index has probably gone up somewhere between 30% and 35%. Okay. That's helpful.

Got it. And then just – You know, further back on tariffs, you know, maybe with the China topic, I think when you guys, we saw this, you know, years ago in 2018, you commented, you know, I guess you don't really have a lot of direct competition in China, a lot of commoditized markets. Does that really then move the needle for you guys if the tariffs into China are pretty significant? Just given that you don't play a lot of the commoditized markets? I mean, you don't have a lot of China's competition, right? I mean, you know, the customers you're dealing with are looking for, you know, more ruggedized, high quality, differentiated bearings like you provide versus the commoditized market. So, I mean, does it really move the needle?

Well, you're talking about exports into China?

I guess in both cases, right? I mean, do you sell directly that much into China right now? And, you know, presumably, would there be a lot of substitute, you know, if those tariffs on products coming out of China are material, do you think you'll get a lot of business, you know, from customers looking elsewhere?

Yeah, we sell into China now, but it's not material. Okay. It isn't worth talking about.

Okay. Okay. Got it. And then I guess last one for me. Anything else you can say on kind of M&A? I know you talked about the leverage being down. You've got more cash here with the preferreds rolling off. I mean, just anything close to the finish line, any specific ads, whether it's market you're looking to expand, any kind of color you can maybe tell us?

Sure. Yeah. Well, Certainly we have the balance sheet now to support expansion. On the other hand, we have an unprecedented amount of projects, internal projects underway that we're developing for organic growth that are either in production or close to production. So our first order of business is to look internally and make sure that these projects and products are uh, well, well managed and we don't disappoint our customers. So that's, that's our first order of priority. You know, on acquisitions, we, we, we continue to review candidates. Um, they, you know, I, I don't know how many, the half a dozen come over to the transom every month at kind of a rate. Um, and, uh, We look at fit, fit with our markets, fit with our ability to sell, our ability to understand those markets. We look for scale. Scale is important. And, you know, we've gotten to the point where we'll accept no less than a top-tier management. So, you know, Dodge completely spoiled us. Yeah. So, right? We look at every one of them and we say, is it as good as Dodge? And is it a yay or a nay in terms of management team? And so we're looking for another Dodge.

So that rules out, should we think about ruling out kind of fixer uppers or, you know, a company with maybe, you know, inferior margins, you know, it just, you know, I've always looked at those as saying you could deploy your toolkit and there'd be a tremendous opportunity for accretion. But if you're accepting no less than top tier management, presumably the financials would be pretty good.

Well, you know, we were able to, we were able to help dodge out with their margins and that all, that all worked out well for everybody. So, you know, I, I think we want to, management team basically that's, that's, um, that knows the game has, has a lot of experience in the industry, in the business and is willing to work with us. And that's what we found with that. And, uh, and so, you know, that's, that's all kind of gray stuff when you're doing your diligence. Um, you know, you have to make a call, uh, exactly that. And, um, and, um, And that's where we are. I mean, we've made bids on some of the candidates we've seen over the last quarter. And I can only say that there's way too much private equity flowing around. And so whatever we do will be expensive.

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks, guys. Just to add on to that, this is Rob Moffitt. I mean, you know, to Dr. Hartnett's earlier point, when we look at fiscal 2026 and the amount of organic growth that's out there, we don't need to take risks on M&A. Number one focus is just heads down and capturing the organic growth that's there, and we can wait for the right pitch to come across the plate, whether it's, you know, product fit, management team, et cetera. But there's a lot of opportunity that we're focused on organically where we don't feel pressure to take a risk.

Yeah, makes sense. Got it. Helpful. Good stuff. Thanks, guys.

Our next question is from Ross Barron, Beth Black, with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, good morning, gentlemen.

Hey, Ross. Hey, Russ.

Hey, guys. Apologies if I missed it, but did you provide the gross margins by segment between aero and industrial?

That would be in the queue.

Okay. All right. I guess the implied here, though, is that Aero was the heavy lift this quarter?

Can you just give me a sec, Ross? I'll pull it out for you. Industrial margins were exceptional, again, as you would expect. Aerospace margins this quarter were over 40. They were 40.5. Industrial margins were 46.5. Oh, wow.

I mean, that implies that you guys really aren't seeing much from the wide body ramp and or contract renewals, as I guess you previously noted. So there's still a pretty significant leg up here. On the industrial side, do you get the sense that you're towards the end of the Dodge synergies then?

I think we'll have Dodge synergies for the next 10 years. It just doesn't seem to end. It doesn't seem to end.

Okay. Okay. Maybe on the warehouse business, could you provide us what the growth was in the quarter between aftermarket and OEM? I know that's stepping up here. Those warranties lap.

You're asking for aftermarket versus OEM Aero? No, sorry.

The Dodge warehouse. Oh. Yeah, that was up.

Yep, I got it right here. Solid performance across OEM and aftermarket. It was up about 7% on a year-over-year basis. Okay. OEM and aftermarket.

Yeah, so maybe just to kind of frame the industrial runway at the end of the year in 2026, roughly 70% of industrial is stable and modest growth. the warehouse is coming back, and then, you know, semiconductor and oil and gas are still around trough levels. Any sense on kind of where that stands on peak to trough or maybe just, you know, trough to normalized levels for OEM and semiconductor as those begin to come back?

I don't know. Yeah, we're starting to see semiconductor work its way back. We're seeing orders from customers that were non-existent a year ago. These are old customers for us, so we know who they are and what they use and so on. So, yeah, we're starting to see that trickle back. It hasn't reached a gallop yet. Let's just put it that way.

Okay. Okay. I'm just trying to assess expectations on maybe if there's a lift above 4% growth in the near term, if those did meaningfully accelerate. But it sounds like you guys have a lot still ahead of you. So congrats on the quarter, and I'll leave it there.

Thanks, Russ.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from Jordan Lyonnais with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, good morning.

Morning, Jordan.

Ana, Aero, could you guys give a little more detail on what the growth was for space in which end markets in defense you guys saw the most growth for and expectations for going forward? Pulling up space for you. Hold on a second.

Thanks.

The space was solid again. It was another quarter with, in ballpark, call it 40% year-over-year growth. The rest of defense was pretty balanced.

Okay. Awesome.

A couple categories. The missiles and guided munitions are strong. Fixed-wing military, strong on the defense side. Pretty balanced across the board.

Great. Thank you guys so much.

Got it.

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Dr. Hartnett for any closing comments.

Okay, well, this concludes our conference call for the third quarter, and I appreciate everybody's participation and all the good questions. We look forward to talking to you again. I think that's in May. End of May. End of May. Good day.

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.