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spk02: Greetings and welcome to REV Group 2020 Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Drew Knopf. Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Thank you. You may begin.
spk03: Thank you, Sherry. Good morning, and thanks for joining us. This morning, we issued our fourth quarter fiscal 2020 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at investors.revgroup.com. Today's call is being webcast, and a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures, is available on our website. Please refer now to slide two of that presentation. Our remarks and answers will include forward-looking statements which are subject to risks that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings that we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings call, if at all. All references on this call to the quarter or a year are to our fiscal quarter or fiscal year, unless otherwise stated. Joining me on the call today are our president and CEO, Rod Rushing, as well as our CFO, Mark Skanechny. Please turn now to slide three, and I'll turn the call over to Rod.
spk04: Thank you, Drew, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call this morning. I'd like to start by welcoming everyone back from what I hope was a healthy and happy holiday season. We are pleased to report improved earnings for the fourth quarter, where we achieved the high end of our guidance that we provided in our last quarterly call. Sales of $616 million were up 6% sequentially despite some lingering in-market challenges related to COVID-19, illustrating the benefit of a diverse portfolio of businesses, as well as momentum that we're building operationally. Our fiscal fourth quarter EBITDA of $28 million grew 45%. Our EBITDA margin increased 150 basis points on a year-over-year basis, despite a 6% decline in our revenue. Our business generated 31% more EDBA this quarter than we did in the third quarter, and we were able to convert those earnings into cash, allowing us to reduce our net debt by over $40 million within the quarter. We fully participated in the increased demand for recreational vehicles and showed market share gain in three out of five product categories. While our fire and emergency margins improved throughout the year, the commercial segment was able to address an organic drop in sales of $120 million and limit our full-year decremental EBITDA margin. During the last nine months, we faced difficulties and perhaps some unprecedented external challenges while delivering three-quarters of sequential margin improvement. We still have much work remaining, and we continue to operate through the challenges with parts supply and absenteeism tied to the COVID matter, However, we believe we're in a position to continue to deliver year-over-year improvements throughout the upcoming fiscal year through our operational disciplines and capabilities that we are building. One important cornerstone that we are committed to establish at REV is to have aligned and unified leadership team that operates under the principles of timely, data-driven, fact-based decision-making with a high sense of ownership and accountability. We have spent quite a bit of time the last few months focused on leadership alignment and organizational structure. We have completed our review of the business's and we have implemented a redesign of our operating model. This was a thoughtful examination of how the business operates, where decisions are made, and how we are structured to predictably deliver results, creating value for our customers and shareholders. The result aligns leadership and management on how we are going to run this business and where accountability sits within the organization while simplifying our business and optimizing our cost structure. There are many changes that were made to this process, and I will provide a bit of insight on a few examples. We made a decision to move our center-led parts business back to the business units. There was an initial hypothesis that growth would be achieved by implementing a consolidated centralized parts business stemming from some in-market synergies. That growth did not materialize. Our businesses inherently know our customers and products and have the institutional knowledge to answer questions and deliver results to our customers more efficiently. Further, the realignment will create a $5 million annual structural cost savings. combined outcome of reducing complexity for our customers, the unrealized growth, and what ended up being creating a duplicate cost structure drove the decision to make this change. This decision was the result of a careful reexamination of how to efficiently serve our customers and simplify our operations. Conversely, there are a few aspects of our operating model where we have moved more firmly to a center-led operation and becoming an operating company. These include development of a center-led activities related to operational excellence and commercial excellence, where scaling of capabilities and processes will yield value creation for our shareholders. Many of these capabilities have been discussed by management previously, but have lacked the commitment and rigor to yield sustainable improvements that create value. We are focused on changing that and made investments in new personnel and technologies to our operating model to build the disciplines necessary to drive sustainable improvement of performance. As part of our operational excellence, we are building capabilities to improve database decision-making, simplify operations, and improve efficiencies on our balance sheet. This includes discipline review and controls of corporate costs, manufacturing overhead, labor, and direct materials. It requires increased capabilities focused on engineering, manufacturing operations, supply chain, and purchasing. To accelerate the change process and create a best-in-class operations, we have made several main event changes. There are a couple that I'd like to highlight today. First, we've expanded the role of our commercial president, Brian Prairie, to include the role of Senior Vice President of Operations. In this role, Brian leads our manufacturing execution, operational excellence, and supply chain. Brian is a master black belt in Six Sigma, a lean sensei, and has extensive background in manufacturing operations and purchasing, making him the ideal person to build out our center-led operational efforts. He is well-positioned to take on this dual role while continuing to lead our commercial segment. In addition, we have hired Rob Dyslowski, as Vice President and Chief Supply Officer. Rob joins REV Group, having recently led Honeywell's Intelligrated Global Supply Chain and was Honeywell's Corporate Chief Procurement Officer. As CPO at Honeywell, he managed an $18 billion annual spend portfolio, as well as leading 3,000 global procurement specialists. Rob has a very broad industrial background from aerospace, automotive, paint and coatings, and includes logistics. He has had executive leadership roles with XPO Logistics, Valspar, Reynolds Group, and Alcoa. He rings the REV group both the vision and the execution capabilities to build the best class global sourcing organization we're looking for and purchasing supply chain organization, combined with a sense of urgency to do this at a pace. Rob has only been in the position at REV for a few weeks, but he's taken an exhausted look at our infrastructure and has quickly identified a list of opportunities. I'm very pleased to have Rob join our team, and I look forward to the impact that he will have on our business performance. In my nine months since joining REV, there have been challenges, some that were expected and some that were unexpected. We've implemented much change during that time. We began to see sequential improvements in our results. We have much work remaining in the months ahead, but I'm encouraged by the progress to date. I look forward to sharing more about the plans and the path forward with you during our Analyst Investor Day that we're planning for April. With that, I'm now going to turn over to Mark for details on our fourth quarter segment performance. Mark?
spk05: Thanks for adding in. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to page four of the slide deck as I review our segment level performance. Prior to the emergency, segment fourth quarter sales were $330 million, a 23% increase compared to prior year. This includes approximately $75 million of sales attributable to our acquisition of Spartan ER that occurred earlier in the year. Excluding Spartan, organic segment sales decreased 6% from the fourth quarter of last year. While organic fire sales were relatively flat, we shipped fewer ambulance units due to lingering impacts of COVID. Although down from prior year, North American ambulance deliveries increased 21% sequentially, and order trends continue to remain strong as municipalities and federal stimulus dollars prioritize health and safety needs. CARES Act stimulus dollars remain available for ambulance units delivered through the 2021 calendar year end, continuing an important driver demand for our F&E segment. Within the fire division, throughput increased sequentially once again at our E1 plant in Ocala, Florida. Unit production was up 44% year over year, demonstrating the benefits of lean programs and operating disciplines that were deployed over the second half of the year. bringing in lean expertise allowed a dual track of affecting immediate change while allowing time to develop leadership, train internal resources, and build a pipeline of OPEX projects that will sustain continuous improvement. We plan to follow this model of deploying lean assistance where we feel there will be an immediate impact while training our internal teams at all businesses through a lean academy that is designed to deliver annual throughput and cost-out targets. F&E's segment-adjusted EBITDA was $14.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to $7.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. The increase was primarily due to the improvements in E1 just mentioned and the acquisition of Spartan ER. Amblin's EBITDA was relatively flat with the prior year despite the decrease in sales due to productivity improvements that increased margins. most notably at our largest manufacturing location in Orlando. Spartan contributed 4 million adjusted EBDA to the F&E segment within the quarter, which completes three quarters of integration that exceeded expectations. The addition of this world-class chassis manufacturing business provides a center of excellence that will be leveraged across our fire businesses and brands, creating further opportunities for manufacturing efficiencies within the segment. Spartan is now integrated into the F&E segment operationally, and we do not plan to call out its individual contribution in the future. Total F&E backlog was $966 million, up 16% year over year. This includes backlog acquired from Spartan and strong ambulance order intake throughout the fiscal year, including the fourth quarter. A decline in legacy fire backlog is largely the result of increased throughput at the Ocala plant, and a decrease in fire industry unit orders that occurred from the onset of COVID through approximately September of 2020. Industry orders during that period declined over 25%. Since that time and during the final two months of our fiscal 2020, our order rates improved to levels on par with fiscal year 2019. Fire backlog remains strong and now reflects competitive industry lead times, and ambulance backlog is at a record high which provides a solid base for sales growth and conversion to earnings within the F&E segment. We currently expect year-over-year F&E revenue improvement versus this year's softness related to COVID absenteeism and inspection delays, which occurred primarily in the second and third fiscal quarters. At this time, absent another recurrence of the virus or additional government restrictions, we feel confident that we will convert to earnings more efficiently and with improved incremental margins. Turning to slide five, commercial segment fourth quarter sales were 91 million, a decrease of 56 million compared to the prior period, which included approximately 57 million from the shuttle businesses divested in early 2020. The organic decline in sales was related to lower sales at all businesses within the segment. Year-over-year school bus sales declined 14% in the fourth quarter, which is a significant improvement to the third quarter decline of 31%, and puts our fiscal second half 2020 sales ahead of reported declines in industry registrations for the same period. Municipal transit sales decreased 40% versus the prior year, primarily due to delivery schedule adjustment to a large order to accommodate the needs of our customer that we disclosed in our fiscal third quarter. The change extended the delivery timeline through fiscal 2021, and there have been no further changes to that contract. Specialty markets remained depressed with sales down 40% versus last year. While this is an improvement from third quarter's decline of 50%, the sales were primarily existing stock units built to order cancellations or delays that needed significant rework to meet customer specifications. Turning to segment adjusted EBITDA for the commercial segment, Commercial segment adjusted EBITDA of $6.4 million was down 61% versus the prior year period, which included $1 million EBITDA related to divested shuttle bus businesses. The decline in EBITDA was primarily a result of the sales decline in all businesses, as well as the inefficiencies related to the rework of stock units within the specialty division. Although the stock unit rework had a negative contribution to performance in the quarter, Given the severe end market declines in this business, we took the opportunity to right-size what had become an inflated stock unit inventory. Within the bus division, despite revenue declines in both school and municipal markets, these businesses were able to continue to flex production with demand and contributed high single-digit EBITDA margins. Commercial segment backlog at the end of the fourth quarter was $274 million. down 14% versus the prior year quarter, which contained 86 million of shuttle bus backlog. Excluding shuttle bus, an 18% organic backlog increase is the result of an increase in specialty division orders within the fourth quarter in timing of a large municipal transit order that entered backlog in the first quarter this year, partially offset by decreased school bus orders. The increased specialty orders were for both terminal trucks, and street sweepers, and this quarter marks the best order intake since fiscal first quarter 2019. We have been aggressively pursuing new contracts and renewals in these markets, winning a large rental company contract for street sweepers and advancing in the bid process for terminal trucks at several national accounts. Last month, we were excited to announce a partnership with Heister Yale Group, to develop electric and hydrogen-powered terminal trucks to reduce emissions and increase efficiency and productivity. We are targeting the end of our fiscal year to have the initial prototypes available for market testing. With momentum in our specialty markets, a longer cycle municipal transit backlog, we feel the commercial segment is in a position to grow revenue despite uncertainty around the timing of a full-time return to the classroom and impacts on school bus demand. As COVID-19 vaccines become more widespread, there is reason to be optimistic that decisions to reopen schools and districts will benefit our peak spring selling season for school bus. Given the cost-out activities that we took this year across all of our commercial segment businesses, We expect increased volume in specialty and potentially school bus to convert at solid incremental margins. We anticipate the overall variability of 2020's commercial segment bottom line margin performance will dissipate in 2021. Absent any new government directives that may impact end markets, employee attendance, or delivery acceptance, the near-term potential for this segment remains in the high single-digit EBITDA margin profile. Turning to slide six, recreation segment sales of 194 million were up 12% versus last year, reflecting strong wholesale shipments and retail demand for Class B, Class C, and towable units. Class A shipments were down mid-single digits versus last year as production was limited by supply chain constraints, primarily in gas units. We feel the backlog and production capacity are in place to support higher shipments once these bottlenecks clear. Despite shipping fewer Class A units, our award-winning product introductions continue to take market share, resulting in higher retail demand, increased pricing, and lower discounting and allowances. Recreation segment EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA was $20.5 million for the quarter, an increase of $12 million, or 175% versus the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.6% reflects the higher sales mix of non-Class A products within the quarter, as well as the impact of operating leverage and productivity improvements achieved across all categories with sequential and year-over-year margin gains. Despite lower Class A unit sales, profitability increased over 650 basis points versus fourth quarter 2019, And for a business that had recently struggled to break even, it was encouraging to see profitability reach levels it had not attained over the past two years. We expect to continue this momentum by driving efficient manufacturing practices and commercial activities focused on dealer wins and market share gains that would deliver sustainable performance, not only during this upturn in demand, but across all parts of the demand and stocking cycles. Segment backlog increased 220% year-over-year to 540 million, which reflects strong order intake across all RV categories over the past six months. The past two quarters were historic highs for orders by a substantial margin, and our current backlog is nearly double that of any point in REV's recreation segment history. We feel this supports the current industry thinking that wholesale shipments will be up 20% or more in calendar 2021, and that our product portfolio, niche market placements, and iconic brands lands us in a strong position to participate in that growth. As we move forward, we expect the sales mix of products to normalize as Class A production and delivery schedules improve, and therefore would expect segment margins in the mid single digits versus 10% achieved in Q4. On slide seven, Consolidated full year net sales declined 5% year over year to 2.3 billion in a challenging year that included expansion of production activities at our recreation segment at the onset of COVID and unplanned disruptions related to the pandemic at several other businesses. Adjusted EBITDA declined 34% compared to fiscal 2019 to 67.5 million. Nearly 50 million or three quarters of that total occurred in the second half of the year as revenue, throughput, and margins improve sequentially through the period. Rod mentioned a number of structuring activities related to right size in the organization. This included decentralizing the parts business from the corporate center back into the individual businesses and sunsetting less profitable brands and dealer relationships within the portfolio. The total structural cost savings executed through our fiscal year end are expected to deliver a total of $10 million annually. Turning to slide eight, full year net cash provided by operating activities was $56 million compared to $53 million of net cash provided in the prior year period. Cash generated was primarily related to improvements in accounts receivable and inventory management, as well as an increase in customer deposits received. We will continue to work all aspects of net working capital, including reinforcing the disciplines needed to reach optimal inventory levels. balancing accounts receivable and payable terms, and aligning more of our businesses with a model that collects a greater amount of customer deposits. Net working capital at October 31st, 2020 was $355 million compared to $373 million at the end of fiscal 2019. Net debt as of October 31st was $331 million, including $11 million cash on hand versus $377 million at the end of fiscal 2019. At fiscal year end, the company maintained ample liquidity with $283 million available under our ABL revolving credit facility. You may recall that our term loan amendment effective in April of last year reverts to a net leverage ratio of 5.25 times with certain ad backs related to Spartan acquisition in the fiscal first quarter of 2021. We are confident that we will attain this target. You may also recall that our term loan expires in April 2022. We'll be working with our banking partners throughout the upcoming months to optimize our capital structure. We do not plan to issue guidance today due to the recent recurrence of COVID-19 cases globally and within our business across the country. The safety of our employees remains a top priority. Contact tracing, testing, and measures to prevent the spread of the virus come with uncertain staffing levels that impact our businesses and supply chain partners. The CDC has issued and continues to update new directives that we follow. Under these conditions, our customers' ability to travel and inspect vehicles for acceptance creates uncertainty of delivery and revenue recognition timing. Until we can reasonably predict the potential impacts of these changes, we feel it would not be prudent to give a range of estimates. However, with the emergence of vaccines, we hope to have better clarity when we host our virtual investor and analyst day in April that Rod referenced. Please save the date on April 15th when we plan to provide a deeper look at our business and operating model and provide immediate term targets. If we feel that the operating landscape has become more predictable, we expect to also provide full-year guidance. We will extend a formal invitation to this event soon. With that, I'll turn it back over to Rod.
spk04: So I guess just a few closing comments then? Yes. So, you know, the fiscal year 2020 has been challenging for the REV group and our employees in many regards. We have gone through a number of internal changes as we move towards the future. We sold a business, purchased it, and integrated a business during that time in which the external environment, as you all know, has been very often unpredictable. I'm pleased with the progress we have achieved in a short amount of time given the amount of change we have experienced. Our businesses continue to have relatively healthy backlogs. We believe they support revenue growth in the upcoming year. Most importantly, I'm very pleased with what our employees have done. Every day they've put themselves in a situation where they've delivered on, done everything they can to deliver on our commitments and deliver to our customers under some very adverse circumstances as we look to support the first responders in our country. So I'm very pleased. I want to thank them publicly for what they've done. And with that, I think we'll hold it over and have a Q&A with an open mic. So... Questions and answers.
spk02: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. And for participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. Please ask one question and one follow-up question and then re-queue for additional questions. Our first question is from Jerry Rivage with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
spk06: Yes, hi. Good morning, everyone, and congratulations on a really strong performance here.
spk05: Hey, Jerry. Thanks. Thank you.
spk06: What really stood out was the margin performance in the RV business, and you alluded to mix helping. I'm wondering if we just stepped through, you know, looking at the year-over-year margin expansion. much of that was improved productivity, how much of that was pricing mix, and do we think about the mix tailwind as being sustainable from here?
spk05: Yeah, Jerry, as I said in my prepared remarks, you know, the mix really helps us, and I think we've always said that, you know, outside of Class A, those are double-digit performing businesses, so when you look at the mix there, our mix was, you down on Class A. And we really had two things helping us from a tailwind perspective. The fact that we had a larger mix in those more profitable businesses being the Class B, Cs, and towables. And Class A actually had a high concentration of diesel product within the quarter, which is more profitable than the gas product. So even though we say COVID-19, A lot of the furniture issues we've had that we talked about previously were on our gas unit lines. And so even within Class A, we had a margin pickup from the concentration of diesel within the quarter, which we would expect to more flatten out to a reasonable normalized rate going forward. And, of course, as Class A continues to develop, it will get more to the 40-60 sort of split that we traditionally have seen within that group. So it really is just a matter of the amount that we sold within those other product categories plus the mixed benefit. And, of course, as you saw within RV itself, the productivity improvements that they had drove a significant part of that 650 basis point improvement. Their sales are actually down 30%. Go ahead. Sorry, please go ahead. Yeah, I'm saying the sales are actually down year on year, right? So they actually were able to deliver a profit this quarter versus last. So that was majority of that benefit was from productivity.
spk06: Okay. And in firing emergency in 1950, Ocala turned the corner. Can you talk about how the production rates have continued into December? Have you continued to ramp higher or was it 40% higher? increase essentially get you to the normalized run rate? And when do we see, from an accounting standpoint, the lower per unit costs flowing through to the full extent?
spk04: Well, I do think this is right. We have made considerable progress in that location. But there's still opportunity for us to even do much better there. So as Mark mentioned in his earlier discussion, we've gotten back to more of a standard industry lead times. We continue to work on throughput on both aerials and pumpers in that plant And we believe there's opportunities for continued margin expansion through productivity. So while we're pleased with the path we're on and we're seeing this thing move and be able to look at our backlog and get to what we think is more of a standard lead time, we still believe there's opportunity to improve our efficiencies in that plant and get margin expansion in that business. So that's just work in front of us. Thank you.
spk05: Yep, thanks, sir.
spk02: Our next question is from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
spk00: Hi, good morning. I guess a couple questions. One, I think you noted on the commercial side you expected to see growth year over year. Just a clarification, I'm assuming that's, you know, normalized for the divestiture, so look at sort of the $90 million quarterly run rate when you're talking about growth. And I guess just my second question, can you just give more color to obviously the outlook on the bus side or the school bus side is somewhat, you know, uncertain. As you talk to customers, can you just talk about how they're thinking about buying trends in the latter part of the year? What would be the major drivers? What would they need to see to come back in the market and just sort of, you know, the overall age of the fleet? Thanks.
spk04: Well, I think that, you know, this is Rod, you know, The feedback we have from in markets or from dealer partners is that, you know, the whole thing and certainly around school openings or schools that are open staying opening, that's the driving factor. And right now there's just tremendous uncertainty around that. The back half of this year is going to shape out differently, obviously, with the emergence of the multiple vaccines. And I think what's our real drive? for uh for people to get back in school from the public i think that's that's pretty clear that people want to go back to school that that makes promise we've got a couple things there i think could be tailwinds to help us get where we need to be but we're going to know i think by the time we get to get together in april we're going to know how that shapes up but right now there's just too much uncertainty for us to look forward and project what that school bus market's going to look like not knowing what the impacts of covid is going to be until so we see the The success rate on this virus and what that looks like and then further moving into the spring when we typically see April, May being when we start getting significant orders and deliveries. So that'll be a time frame we're going to know. But right now, it's not clear. It's just a tremendous uncertainty. Everybody's kind of awaiting that time period.
spk00: Sorry, and then just the commentary on revenues for commercial, I'm assuming it excludes the divestiture, so look at the $90 million quarterly run rate. And then my last question, how to think about the corporate expense line, you know, as we look to 2021. Any color there? Thanks.
spk05: Yeah, so you're right on the commercial, exactly right, excluding the $90 million. And then on the... On the corporate, of course, parts was part of the centralized, so that $5 million drops right to the corporate line, so you could see that $5 million drop. That's where that was traditionally shown, the centralized parts business.
spk00: Okay, great. Thank you. Thank you.
spk02: Our next question is from Courtney Yacovonis with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
spk01: Hi, thanks. Good morning, guys. Good morning, Courtney. Back on the comment, you know, appreciate that, you know, there will be a mixed shift in recreation next year. I think you said you expect, you know, in line with the industry wholesale shipments up about 20%. But I think you had said that you were expecting mid-single-digit margins, and I think we've historically been seeing more high single-digit out of that segment. So just wanted to make sure I fully understood that. what you were thinking the mixed shift impact would have on 2021, given that Class A has been weak for some time now?
spk05: Yeah, we've traditionally seen mid single digits. So, you know, what we determine as mid, right, 5% to 7%. So that's probably in line with what we've historically done. But the mixed shift really is what I referred to with Jerry's question is, again, at 40% of our sales being in the RV or our Class A business, You know, those, as you know, are depressed margins, so those bring down the ones that are double-digit from a run rate perspective. So it's really the fact that RV, what we call RV, our Class A, was actually down from a mix. So as they come more to the 40% to 50% range, they were 40% in the quarter versus 50% in the prior year. So you had a 10% drop there from a mixed perspective. And so it's really that simple as far as looking at the other three businesses that we have in that portfolio at double-digit and bringing in a lower single-digit mix from the Class A will actually depress those 10% down to more of the 5% to 7% range.
spk01: Okay, that's helpful. And then any more specificity you could give us just on commercial and S&Es?
spk05: margins as we think about impact next year obviously appreciating that it's going to be dependent on your delivery schedule but any high level thoughts on the margin side yeah i think we said uh high single digits on the uh from that whole commercial side but obviously on the capacity if you're talking about capacity that's um you know that's one we're still with the backlog here so as i said my prepared remarks we took the opportunity to a lot of the units that we had uh developed coming into what our normal selling season is, didn't develop. But exiting the quarter, we're very happy with some of the progress we made, and our backlog is now performing, so we should see the variability. get out of there. But when you look at the total commercial segment, we would expect the high single, sort of what we were expecting coming into quarter if we wouldn't have had the issues that we experienced on the commercial side and liquidation that we did on some of those stock units. So we would expect it to get more like we guided to last time, more of the mid or the high single digits for the commercial segment.
spk01: Okay, gotcha. And then I guess just lastly, you know, you mentioned, you know, concerns about delivery schedules for next year. But if you had to just highlight, you know, what are the three categories that has the most variability or you're most concerned about versus the ones that are, or that you feel most confident in the delivery schedules for next year, just so we can get a sense of where the real risk is.
spk04: And by categories, you mean the business units or the product categories?
spk01: Yeah, I guess I just meant, you know, within the business unit, you know, obviously your recreation backlog is, you know, pretty strong. So do you feel like that's, you know, where you have the most certainty, you know, versus some of the product lines in F&E and commercial?
spk04: I think that, you know, and I'll comment and then Mark can clean up what I say. I think that when you think about in markets that are affected by the issues, I think primarily, obviously, in market demand in the school bus businesses is the issue. All the businesses are subject to some level of supplier issues that we're dealing with. I think RV is probably the one that we've seen the most stock outs, which is pretty consistent across the industry. The other element that we deal with a little bit, which is a timing issue, not an impact probably within the fiscal year, is just the inspections that have to take place in ambulance and fire around getting a bus off the lot or a truck or an ambulance off the lot related to completing final inspections. by getting people to the side. That's a real issue that we've been dealing with in terms of revenue recognition because that has to happen in order for us to convert the bus. So I think in school bus, it certainly is in market demand. There's some supplier issues that are spread throughout that we've been able to overcome for the most part, but they do pop up and we have to work through that. And then the last thing would be the businesses that are subject to inspections, which is your emergency segment is where we see that at. Mark, I don't know if you want to add anything.
spk05: I think that's right. I think as we said previously, one of the things that we thought would happen here with COVID as people converted, like people working from home, we expected that more people would adopt virtual inspections for our ambulance and fire trucks. And as exiting COVID, our customers have come back to wanting to see their trucks in person more. And with this resurgence here, we're hoping that they'll go back to virtual, but we have shifted back to wanting to do in-person inspections. So we haven't seen them going back to virtual. So obviously there is some flux there if people would go back to virtual inspections, depending on what happens with the COVID environment. But we are back to our traditional, as Rod referred to, actually seeing the units before they leave the facility. the yard so that we can revenue them. And that's really the delays that I was speaking to. It's really our customers coming in and inspecting the units and approving them for shipment.
spk01: Great, thanks.
spk02: As a reminder, the star 1 on your telephone keypad if you would like to ask a question. Our next question is from Raj Patel with Jefferies. Please proceed.
spk08: Hey, thanks for taking the question. Quick one on F&E margins. What's the anticipated F&E margin expansion once all the production and efficiencies are sorted out? What do you think the new margin profile looks like in a new normal?
spk05: From a fire perspective, obviously, as Rod has reiterated multiple times, we're still in a multiple-inning journey here. So as he's referred to on the E1 slide, We still have a lot of work to do. We're seeing progression. But, of course, we have other facilities within the portfolio, too, that we're going to address, as I said in my prepared remarks. So we're still expecting to be in the double digits at the end of this journey, but we're still working through that, right? So, of course, we're not giving guidance here, but, again, it's still in a multiple-year perspective to get to that 10. So we're just happy to see the progression here that we've seen throughout the quarter. And obviously, our forward-looking will provide more guidance in April.
spk04: Yeah, I think that there's, you know, when you think about operational improvements and how you walk down that, what Mark referred to as a multi-internet journey, when you come into the role, there's some quick things you can do to get pop and get improvement. And then it's about building capabilities. And I mentioned from an operational excellence standpoint, you know, standing up the lean capabilities and center-led type activities that get implemented in the plants around CI, around purchasing, building engineering capabilities to get design costs through VAVE. Those are things that you've got to do some capability building. But the good thing is that it's a continually improved process where you're going to be getting at that every day by building pipelines to go execute again. So we're in the process right now, coming out of our operating model discussion of, standing up those capabilities and building out those teams and doing the certifications that Mark talked about through lean that are going to yield benefit to us for a very, very long time. Things that did not exist. Now we're standing up those capabilities and bringing on Rob to lead our purchasing organization and get focused on that significant spend. I think it's going to yield great benefit to us too. So those will all contribute to a margin expansion story, not only in emergency, but across the business. And so that's, but it does take work to stand it up. It starts with, organizing and aligning and then investing in those capability building and then driving it through process rigor each day, each week, each month.
spk08: That's helpful. Thank you.
spk02: Our next question is from Meg Dobre with Baird. Please proceed.
spk07: Thanks. Morning, guys. A quick question on chassis. As you're looking at your current production planning based on your backlog, are there any portions in your business where you're getting a sense that you're having either challenges obtaining chassis or the delivery timelines are extended? And look, I mean, I'm thinking specifically around ambulances and some of the stuff in recreation as well, like, you know, class Bs and so on.
spk05: Yeah, no, Meg, I'm glad to say we're not experiencing those. In fact, you know, we've had a pretty good supply chain from that perspective, so I was happy this quarter not to be talking about chassis shortages for once, even though it's only my second one. So I know you've heard that consistently, so we've been very happy with that. In fact, you know, in the RV side especially, we took advantage of what our run rates were going to be and actually ordered ahead, so we're actually – sitting with plenty of chassis from that perspective in that business. And then on the ambulance side, we haven't had any issues from a chassis perspective. We've been getting our appropriate allocations from our OE partners.
spk07: Okay, that's helpful. And then maybe my follow-up, sort of sticking with this theme, how do you think about steel prices and raw material inflation in 2021? What are some of the steps that you're taking to mitigate this? Because, obviously, historically, this has been an area where we've seen some trouble in prior years. Thank you.
spk04: So, I mean, obviously, on the parts of our business, which a large part of our business is built out of backlog, you know, there's always the problem. you're trying to offset inflation with your efficiency efforts because your purchase price is established on a backlog-based business. So we're managing that. Obviously, a big part of what Rob's efforts is going to be is to look at new purchasing to be able to offset that within a fiscal year so we can cycle through and get the margins that we need on a price-cost basis. So it's a lot around driving efficiency to make sure that we're doing everything we can to optimize our cost structure to have any leakage that does come through inflation into a backlog-based business. We can offset through other means. And, Mark, I don't know if you want to add anything to that.
spk05: I think that's right, and that's one of the things that I'm working personally with Rob on, make sure we understand those inflationary factors as we go through 2021, as well as our agreements with our supply base. And that's one of the things that Rob's getting acclimated to. And there's obviously a heightened focus in those businesses where we don't have the longer backlogs. We've obviously come out with some. price increases as our competitors have. So we're managing that with the supply base as well as our customers.
spk04: I do think one of the things, you know, many things we're working on is trying to get in front of how we think about price as a function of inflation and to make sure when you think about a price increase or setting a price in the market that you're thinking about the build cycle of when that vehicle will get built. So you reflect some inflationary characteristics in your costing in the business. Most of our businesses have done that to some degree, but that's just something I think that we've got to get great around because when you're working on a backlog-based business and you're doing selling forward projection on deliveries, you've got to be thinking about the inflationary times that you're in and making sure that you're costing that vehicle such that by the time you're doing the build or you're shipping the vehicle that you've anticipated any inflationary costs in your pricing costs.
spk07: Absolutely. I understand that. I guess I'm just wondering, based on what you know today, do you believe you're going to be in a position where you can be neutral from a price-cost standpoint going forward, or should we try to bake in some kind of a headwind?
spk04: Thank you. Yeah, I think based on the data we have now relative to price-cost, the efficiency efforts that we've got in the business should yield us a minimum neutrality in our performance going forward in the fiscal year.
spk07: Appreciate it. Good luck, guys.
spk04: Thanks, Mick.
spk02: As a reminder, just star 1 on your telephone keypad if you would like to ask a question. We will pause for a brief moment to pull for final questions. There are no more questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back over to Rod for closing comments.
spk04: Okay, great. Well, thank you again for joining. I appreciate the questions. Again, I want to take a moment as we close out a fiscal year and a nine-month period for myself and then think about all the changes that we've made both in process and structure and people to thank our team for what's been a pretty whirlwind year. Considering all the external situations that all of us have dealt with, on top of that, new leadership coming in and expecting to do things a different way and maybe change some thinking. I want to compliment our leadership team and also thank our frontline employees and what they've done to serve our customers and also serve this nation in getting these necessary vehicles out to our communities. So, again, I appreciate your time today. I look forward to seeing you all in April when we'll have a deeper discussion around where we're taking this business going forward. Have a great day and have a great weekend. Thank you.
spk02: Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.
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