REV Group, Inc.

Greetings, and welcome to the REV Group fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Drew Conop. Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we issued our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2023 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at investors.repgroup.com. Today's call is being webcast, and a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures, is available on our website. Please refer now to slide two of that presentation. Our remarks and answers will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we've described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC earlier today and other filings that we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. to a quarter or year or to our fiscal quarter or fiscal year unless otherwise stated. Joining me on the call today is our president and CEO, Mark Skanechny.

Please turn to slide three and I'll turn the call over to Mark. Thank you, Drew, and good morning to everyone joining us on today's call. This morning I'll provide an overview of the year's commercial, operational, and strategic achievements, including full-year financial highlights and our consolidated fourth quarter performance. I will then go over the detailed segment financials. First off, I would like to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication over the past year. Their commitment to the initiatives we have been enacted to improve operations and our financial performance are apparent in the results we reported earlier today. Throughout the year, we delivered year-over-year and sequential improvements that resulted in a six-year high and full-year adjusted EBITDA. and I want to recognize the individuals in our manufacturing facilities that are getting their job done on a daily basis. Municipal end markets remain robust, and we exited the year with a record $4.5 billion backlog, driven by strength in the fire and emergency segments. Elevated demand for both fire apparatus and ambulance resulted in a quarterly order intake record within fiscal 2023 for each of the fire and the ambulance groups. While demand for units has remained above historic trends for each of these businesses, backlog revenue has also benefited from pricing actions put in place over the past two years. We believe improved execution, higher selling prices, and the reliability of our $3.6 billion F&E backlog, which is largely municipal tax-based, positions us well for 2024. Fiscal 2023 demonstrated the success of price As we have noted in past calls, the recreation and commercial segments were the first to enjoy pricing tailwinds within fiscal 2022 and early into fiscal 2023. The recreation segment benefited from increased industry pricing, strong market reception of our new product introductions, and a relatively low 2023 mile-year lot inventory entering the year, which allowed the segment to manage through a challenging market as we exited 2023. In the commercial segment, limited backlog for school bus, terminal trucks, and street sweepers emerging from COVID, combined with a short production cycle, allowed the businesses to realize the benefits of previously enacted price increases within 2023. Improved efficiencies and volume leverage also contributed to strong margin performance in the commercial and recreation segments. Within the fire and emergency segment, increased production rates and shipments from the ambulance group results in improved price realization in fiscal 2023. We expect fire group shipments to begin experiencing similar tailwinds in the second half of fiscal 2024. Within the year, we invested in our workforce by implementing game-sharing programs to an expanding group of businesses, making targeted pay scale adjustments and adding headcounts to support increased production rates at many of our plants. To support the success of these investments in our people, and resources and local management teams have worked to improve recruiting and expand training programs designed to more effectively onboard workers while minimizing inefficiencies. Managers across the enterprise have shared best practices for developing the required skills and new hires. These efforts contributed to a reduction of voluntary turnover in all segments and a 23% reduction in turnover for the REV group in total. We will continue these training programs in fiscal 2024 and expect them to provide additional benefits to new hires, current employees, and REV bottom line through an increased labor efficiency and higher production rates. In fiscal 2023, we improved the conversion of sales to earnings versus 2022 and continue to convert adjusted net income to cash with full year free cash conversion of 116%. The third consecutive year of conversion greater than 100%. We demonstrated a disciplined use of capital by paying down debt in an environment of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. The result was an improved balance sheet, including $81 million of net debt reduction and increased availability in our ABL credit facility. Exiting the year, we had a net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio of just 0.8 times, well under our targeted range of 2 to 2.5 times. Although debt reduction remains a primary use of cash, we continue to look at organic and inorganic opportunities and review our portfolio of existing businesses to ensure that they meet our long-term financial objectives. Now turning to slide four, full-year consolidated net sales increased $306 million or 13% versus fiscal 2022. The increase was primarily the result of increased sales within the F&E and within the recreation segment. The increase in F&E segment sales was primarily due to increased shipments of fire apparatus and ambulance, a favorable mix of ambulance units, and price realization partially offset by an unfavorable mix of fire apparatus. The increase in commercial segment sales was primarily the result of increased of municipal transit buses. The decrease in recreation segment sales was a result of fewer unit shipments and unfavorable mix of gas units that carried a lower selling price and discounting in certain categories, partially offset by price realization. Full-year consolidated adjusted EBITDA increased $52 million, or 49% year-over-year. The increase in adjusted EBITDA was primarily a result of increased the recreation segment. The increase in F&E segment EBITDA was primarily due to higher unit volume, a favorable mix of ambulance units, and price realization, partially offset by an unfavorable mix of buyer units, lingering inefficiencies related to the relocation of KME-branded manufacturing, and inflationary pressures. The increase in the commercial segment EBITDA was primarily due to increased shipments of school buses, terminal trucks, transit buses and inflationary pressures. The decrease in recreation segment EBITDA was related to fewer unit shipments and an unfavorable mix of gas units, increased discounting and inflationary pressures partially offset by price realization. Turning to slide five, I will provide fourth quarter highlights and then move on to detailed segment financials. Throughout the year, we implemented programs designed to increase throughput and improve Within the quarter, the benefits from these programs were most significantly demonstrated in the F&E segment as it delivered fourth quarter sales that were 34% higher than the prior year. Year over year, the fire group increased net sales by 28%, and unit shipments of fire apparatus reached a two and a half year high by increasing 21%. Ambulance group net sales increased 46%, and unit shipments increased 33% versus the prior year, remaining at a level near a third-quarter, three-year high. Commercially, our businesses were actively engaged with their customers, dealers, and industry groups. The Rev Fire Group demonstrated its commitment to the first responder community by hosting the 27th Annual Fire Truck Training Conference, the largest and most in-depth combined training and testing event in the nation. FTTC provided training to approximately 400 first responders driver operators, technicians, equipment manufacturers, dealers, and service center representatives through 50 individual courses over four days. Attendees met with suppliers one-on-one to address specific troubleshooting issues and learn the latest maintenance tips and techniques. In September, the Rev Ambulance Group showcased two highly customized critical care transport ambulance at the EMS World, a leading education event for emergency service providers worldwide. Critical care transport is considered the highest level of patient care for most critically injured or ill patients. The showcased AEV brand ambulance were designed to accommodate the extra equipment required when transporting patients in critical condition are an example of the customization capabilities of REV's ambulance brand to fulfill any requirement. Finally, I am pleased to announce that Steve Domanski has joined the company as Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary. Steve previously served as the Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary at Cooper Tire. Prior to that, he held the same title at Esser Minerals Americas and served as General Counsel of Titan Energy Partners. In addition to legal matters, Steve will sit on the executive leadership team and oversee corporate governance and ESG initiatives across Rev Group companies. I look forward to the positive contributions that Steve and experience will provide to Rev Group. Steve will be working with Paul Robinson, our interim general counsel, to transition responsibilities through the first fiscal quarter. I would like to thank Paul Robinson for his contributions to the company over the past several months. Please turn to page six of the slide deck. as I move to a review of our fourth quarter consolidated financial results. Net sales of $693 million increased 70 million, or 11%, compared to the fourth quarter of the prior year. The increase was driven by higher shipments and sales within the F&E and commercial segments, partially offset by lower sales in the recreation segment. Commercial segment sales continue to benefit from higher shipments of school buses and price realizations. However, unit shipments of terminal trucks, street sweepers, and municipal transit buses declined sequentially. Lower recreation sales were primarily a result of lower unit shipments across all categories, an unfavorable mix of lower-priced gas units, and discounting in certain categories partially offset by price realization. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $54 million increased 21 million, or 61%, versus last year, with increased contribution from the fire and emergency and commercial segments, partially offset by lower contribution from the recreation segment. Higher contribution from the F&E segment includes improved results in both the fire and ambulance groups. Commercial segment EVTA benefited from improved profitability in the school bus and specialty businesses, partially offset by a decline in initial transit business. Lower recreation contribution was primarily related to fewer shipments unfavorable mix, inflationary pressures, and increased discounting, partially offset by price realization. Increased year-over-year consolidated net sales converted an incremental adjusted EBITDA margin of 30%. Moving to page seven of the slide deck, we will review our fourth quarter segment results. Fire and emergency fourth quarter segment sales increased 86 million compared to the prior year. Higher net sales are primarily due to increased shipments of fire apparatus and ambulance units mentioned earlier, a favorable mix of higher content ambulance units, and price realization. Unit production at our largest fire apparatus plant reached a three-year high and fourth quarter shipment from our Chastity Center of Excellence studying records since its acquisition in the spring of 2020. The UAW strike was resolved within the quarter with little impact on our ambulance group which posted another strong quarter unit shipments, resulting in a six-year high in quarterly net sales. F&E segment adjusted EBITDA was $26.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. The increase was primarily a result of higher volume, favorable ambulance mix, and price realization, partially offset by an unfavorable mix of fire apparatus and inflationary pressures. F&E adjusted EBITDA dollar and margin reached a five-year high within the quarter. Wire group profitability improved 600 basis points versus the prior year and 140 basis points sequentially, reaching a two-and-a-half-year high. Improved profitability was primarily due to higher sales volume, manufacturing efficiencies related to programs put in place throughout the year mentioned earlier, and improved price realization at several plants. Across the fire group, a greater number of production slots were utilized through improved daily management focused on starts to drive even higher completions. We completed a key milestone at our largest brand campus by realigning production to a more efficient use of factory space. Individual plants now manufacture a dedicated value stream versus running a mixed production line, which created complexity and resulted in inefficiencies in the past. Ambulance group profitability improved 800 basis points compared to last year, resulting in a five-year high in adjusted EBITDA margin and a six-year high in adjusted EBITDA dollars. All ambulance businesses contributed with improved margin performance sequentially, which resulted in the group attaining the full-year margin performance target provided during the 2021 investor day. Record F&E backlog of $3.6 billion increased 41% year-over-year, reflecting strong orders and pricing actions. The full-year unit book-to-bill ratio was 1.5 times in fiscal 2023. Throughput and unit production are expected to increase at a single-digit rate within fiscal year 2024, while industry demand and inbound orders are expected to begin a normalization back to historic trends in both fire and emergency. As a result, we anticipate the book-to-bill ratio to be closer to one time in fiscal 2024. Increased throughput and price realization are expected to result in low double-digit percentage revenue growth in fiscal 2024 versus fiscal 2023. Volume leverage, continued efficiency improvements, and price realization are expected to result in a full-year incremental margin in the 35% to 40% range on the revenue increase. Turning to slide eight. Fourth quarter commercial segment sales of $140 million was an increase of 26% compared to the prior year. The increase was primarily related to higher sales of school buses, partially offset by lower sales of terminal trucks, street sweepers, and transit buses. Fourth quarter shipments of school buses reached a three-year high, improving 16% sequentially against a record backlog entering the quarter. Unit sales of terminal trucks and street sweepers declined 9%, versus the prior year, as end market demand and specialty group inbound orders continued to soften throughout the year. Municipal transit bus production and completions remain impacted by shortages of components such as seats and wiring harnesses, which contributed to a 14% decrease in unit shipments compared to last year. Commercial segment adjusted EBITDA of $16.5 million increased $13.2 million versus the prior year. The increase in adjusted EBITDA was primarily a result of increased shipments and favorable mix of school bus units and price realization within the school bus and specialty group businesses, partially offset by fewer shipments of terminal trucks, street sweepers, and municipal transit bus business. And labor and efficiencies related to supply chain disruption and a competitive bidding environment in the transit bus business. Commercial segment backlog of $427 million decreased 19% versus last year, reflecting increased production against backlog and decreased orders for terminal trucks, street sweepers, and municipal transit buses. Lower demand for terminal trucks is expected to continue in the first half of fiscal 2024 as logistics providers, retailers, distribution centers, and port operators remain cautious while monitoring consumer spending and general economic trends. Lower demand for street sweepers is primarily related to reduced orders from equipment rental companies, which are primary customer base. We expect the combined results of these special state group order headwinds to be a decline of approximately $100 million in commercial segment revenue in fiscal 2024. Lower demand for the municipal transit bus business is primarily related to a transition from carbon-based vehicles to low and no-emission solutions. The infrastructure upgrades required to operate a low-emission fleet has resulted in municipalities extending delivery dates for buses as they upgrade the depots and other service equipment required to operate a converted fleet. As the transition to alternative fuel solutions gets stretched out, the market for incumbent diesel and CNG units has become highly competitive, with manufacturers competing to fill production slots. We plan to manage the impact of lower commercial segment revenue related to these headwinds with cost actions designed to maintain a decremental margin in the 15% range on anticipated revenue decreases. Turning to slide nine. Recreation segment sales of $215 million decreased 17% versus last year's fourth quarter. Lower sales versus the prior year were primarily a result of fewer shipments in all categories, an unfavorable mix of Class A units, and discounting certain categories, partially offset by a favorable mix of Class C units and price realizations. Quarterly shipments reached a three-year low dating to the second fiscal quarter of 2020, which coincided with the onset of COVID. The largest headwind in unit shipments and net sales was within our cobalt business, which is currently producing with approximately one month of backlog. Despite an overall industry retail sales decline, our motorized categories continued to outpace the industry and have gained market share in the calendar year-to-date period. Our Class B business posted record quarterly net sales with calendar year-to-date retail unit sales up 6% versus Class C industry decline of 3%. Class A business retail unit sales declined 1% for the calendar year-to-date versus the industry decline of 12%. And Class B retail unit sales were up 4% versus the industry decline of 12%. Recreation segment adjusted EBITDA of $19 million. was a decrease of $16.2 million versus the prior year. The decrease in adjusted EBITDA was primarily the result of lower unit volume, inflationary pressures, and discounting, partially offset by price realization and cost actions in certain businesses, resulting in a fourth quarter decremental margin of 36% on the revenue decrease. Segment backlog of $385 million at year end decreased 66% versus the prior year. The decrease is primarily due to continued production against backlog and lower full-year net orders across product categories versus the prior year. Within the quarter, our most probable categories of Class B and Class C orders remained at a normalized level and in line with pre-COVID levels, and backlog for these businesses remained at approximately six to eight months of production, respectively. We expect fiscal 2024 full-year revenue to be down mid-single digits reflecting continued mixed headwinds from Class A gas units that carry a lower average selling price, plus increased contribution from lower content units and new product and entry-level categories. As a result, full-year 2024 recreation segment adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be in the high single digits. Turning to slide 10, trade working capital on October 31st, 2023 was $318.5 million. A DECREASE OF $29.3 MILLION COMPARED TO $347.8 MILLION AT THE END OF FISCAL 2022. THE DECREASE WAS PRIMARILY A RESULT OF INCREASED ACCOUNTS PAYABLE AND CUSTOMER ADVANCES, PARTIALLY OFFSET BY AN INCREASE IN ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE IN INVENTORY. THE INCREASED INVENTORY BALANCE INCLUDES AN INCREASE OF $40 MILLION IN CHASSIS AND AN INCREASED FINISHED GOODS OF $11 MILLION RELATED TO TIMING THE CUSTOMER INSPECTION Partially offsetting these increases was the decrease in raw materials, parts, and work in process, which we feel demonstrates the progress of operational initiatives aimed at improving manufacturing efficiencies. Full-year cash from operating activities was $126.5 million. We spent $13.1 million on capital expenditures within the fourth quarter and a total of $32.8 million for the full year, including organic CapEx investments for growth. As I mentioned earlier, full-year free cash flow of $93.7 million was a 116% conversion of adjusted net income. Net debt as of October 31st was $128.7 million, including $21.3 million of cash on hand. We declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.05 per share payable January 12th to shareholders of record on December 26th. At quarter's end, the company maintained ample liquidity for our strategic initiatives with approximately $384 million available under our ABL revolving credit facility. Turning to slide 11, we provide a 2024 fiscal full-year outlook, which builds upon the exit rate momentum within the fire and emergency segment. We expect continued throughput gains and strong incremental performance within F&E to offset headwind segment. Today's top line guidance is $2.6 to $2.7 billion or approximately flat revenue at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $165 to $185 million, an increase of 12% at the midpoint. Given the seasonally soft first quarter, we expect the first quarter to be the top of revenue adjusted EBITDA margin with sequential improvement throughout the year. We expect first-half consolidated revenue to be approximately 45 percent of the full-year guidance and first-half consolidated adjusted EBITDA to be approximately 35 percent of the full-year guidance. Adjusted net income is expected to be $82 to $99 million and net income $71 to $90 million. Free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $70 to $85 million, reflecting a net reduction in customer advances related to increased throughput and lower intake of new deposits in the current interest rate environment, as well as a year-on-year increase of cash taxes paid. We anticipate a reduction in overall inventory to partially offset the impact of lower customer advances. Full-year capital expenditures is estimated to be in the range of $30 to $35 million, including organic growth investments in our businesses, as well as ERP upgrades in certain businesses. Maintenance capex remains in the range of $15 to $20 million per year. The expected interest expense range of $26 to $28 million is approximately flat year-over-year, which considers a seasonal use of cash in the first quarter that typically impacts the full-year average debt level, as well as higher interest rates on debt and customer advances versus the prior year. Thank you again for joining us on today's call. With that, operator, we would now like to open the call up for questions.

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with FAIRD. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you for taking the question. Yes, good morning. I guess my first question, I'm far in emergency. I appreciate the context on how you're framing 2024. But as I understood it, you're looking at mid-single-digit unit production growth, maybe low double-digit revenue growth. I guess that implies somewhere in the mid-single-digit pricing year-over-year that you're recognizing. So maybe can you confirm that? And I'm sort of curious as you're sort of looking at what's flowing out of your backlog, because you have quite a large backlog that's built up, are we to expect that pricing will then further accelerate or become a further tailwind as we think about fiscal 25 relative to 24? Thank you.

Yeah, I think in my prepared remarks, you did the math correctly there, Meg. So you're correct. That is, I will confirm that the pricing that is the mid-single digits, like you're talking about there, mid to high single digits. And specifically in the 25, when you talk about the back half of 24, as I said, my prepared remarks is when fire will start realizing the pricing that we have seen come through an ambulance as they've been quicker to execute their backlog, so we would expect similar type of increases as we exit 24 into 25.

Great. And from a capacity standpoint, when you're kind of looking at both fire and ambulance, where are you now? Are you able to further increase production volume beyond fiscal 24, or will that require incremental investment of any sort?

No, I think we can. We've done a lot of work, as we've talked about throughout the year, in increasing our throughput in existing facilities. And again, a lot of our locations are 410, so we have the ability to flex beyond that. So we feel good right now. What we're doing from our production cadence and the ramp plans, we have in 24, and then exiting, obviously, 24 into 25. I see.

Your comment on incremental margins here, 35% to 40%, it sounds like you're getting that without maybe the full tailwind from pricing in fiscal 24. What's the right way to think about incremental margins longer term, if you would, here, as we think about 25 or even beyond that?

Yeah, I don't want to give anything there, but obviously we want to continue to meet that 15%, you know, the incrementals. But with the pricing still kicking in, once we see the execution in 24 on our backlog, then we'll be able to get a better view in the 25. So I would just say for 24, you know, it includes also operating improvements, as we talked about in our holding facility, which we talked about the last couple quarters, right, and the flushing out of the KME facility.

units and get more of a production cadence there so that that's where you're seeing those uh every incremental as well as improvements in that facility as well sure um then last question for me um the balance sheet as you pointed out um you made you made big progress in de-levering your stub one time that did the eva die and obviously you've got going in the right direction here um So I'm sort of curious, based on your guidance, you're expecting free cash flow to be about 30, about 40. How do you think about deploying this cash in fiscal 24? Do you think more towards shared buybacks, given where your stock is trading in valuation, or are you active in pursuing any sort of M&A deal? Thank you.

Yeah, I would say we're not active, but we're always looking. Like I said in my remarks, we still have a lot of value creation in our four walls. So, you know, we are entertaining looking at the opportunities, but we're not active in that process. But obviously we'll look at, as we always do, what's best for the shareholders. And from an overall perspective, if there's a share buyback opportunity, you know, we pursue that as we talked about previously.

All right. Good luck.

Thank you. Thanks, Mike. Thank you.

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Schliske with DA Davidson. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. Hello. Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Hey, Mike. Hi, Mike. Hey, guys. I want to touch first on The recreation segment, obviously, there's been some downside in the last couple of quarters here. Things might still be challenged. But do you think you might be able to end fiscal 2024 on a positive note with some easier comps or just a lot of the issues that are facing the segment might eventually flush through by then? Or do you think you'll be down for essentially the entire year in the next fiscal year here?

No, I think obviously the first half of the year, which we talked about prior to March, was... You know, we're still a little bit of tailwind from the industry. And then the back half, obviously, has a slowing that we've been talking about. So as you exit 24, I think we'd get more normalized than what we saw in 23. The comps are more difficult in the first half of the year. And I think we'll be really able to judge that coming out of January here in our Tampa show, which is the largest RV show in the U.S. So we'll be able to see what the consumer and dealer appetite is. coming out of Q1 here. So I think we'll have a better view exiting Q1 than we currently do in the market right now.

Okay, great. I also wanted to follow up on some of your comments about street sweepers. It seems like elsewhere they haven't been calling out too many challenges in the street sweeper business given, you know, infrastructure bill tailwinds and just generally positive government spending trends. I'm curious as to if you could give some more details to what you're seeing there. Is there a certain part of the country a certain size sweeper, et cetera, that might be reasons why, for some reason, your segment is just not working right there.

I think more of it is the utilization. Like we talked about, we sell to a lot of rental houses, and what they've seen is a drop in utilization in the dealers that we use as well as the operators. Again, it's one that we continue to follow. I think we are seeing increased quote activity, but we just haven't seen the improvement from an order fulfillment perspective. So I think that's a way to see as well as we go exit the season here into the winter. So I think what we're seeing here is more of a normalization of that business coming off a historic high in 23 and the fact that we'll get back to where we used to be where building stock within the winter units and then as spring kicks off we start seeing the order intake pick up. So I think what we're seeing overall is a normalization in street sweeper and yard truck business where We'll see a wall here in Q1, and then it'll pick up as the shows kick off in the springtime of the following year, which is the historic pattern that was that business previous to COVID.

Outstanding. Maybe just one last one for me. The type of school buses, I was wondering if you could give us an update on the EV product, how that's been taking off, and order intake for that particular area. Thank you.

So I think for the school bus business, we're seeing relatively low intake. I think we're meeting the requirements. It's still less than 100 when you look at our total Collins business that produces those. So it's not, you know, those are accretive, those buses, but it's not a main driver of the results of our school bus business.

Okay. Thanks so much. I'll pass them along.

All right. Thanks, Mike.

Thank you. Mr. Skanechny, we have no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

Yes, thank you, Operator. So in closing, I would like to thank our entire team for their efforts throughout the past year, and I wish everyone on the call a safe and happy holiday season. So thank you again for joining us today.

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.