RE/MAX Holdings, Inc. Class A

Good morning, and welcome to the RE-MAX Holdings Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Chris, and I'll be facilitating the audio portion of today's call. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Andy Schulz, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Schulz?

Thank you, Operator.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to RE-MAX Holdings Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Please visit the Investor Relations section of www.remaxholdings.com for all earnings-related materials and to access the live webcast and the replay of the call today. If you are participating through the webcast, please note that you will need to advance the slides as we move through the presentation. Turning to slide two, our prepared remarks and answers to your questions on today's call may contain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include those related to agent count, franchise sales and open offices, financial measures and outlook, brand expansion, competition, technology, housing and mortgage market conditions, capital allocation, dividends, share repurchases, strategic and operational plans, and business models. Forward-looking statements represent management's current estimates. RE-MAX Holdings assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements in the future. Forward-looking statements address matters that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. These are discussed in our second quarter 2023 financial results press release and other FCC filings. Also, we will refer to certain non-GAAP measures on today's call so you see the definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures contained in our most recent quarterly financial results press release, which is available on our website. Joining me on our call today are Steve Joyce, our Chief Executive Officer, Kerry Callahan, our Chief Financial Officer, and the presidents and CEOs of our brands, Ward Morrison and Nick Bailey. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to RE-MAX Holdings CEO, Steve Joyce. Steve?

Thank you, Andy, and thanks to everyone for joining our call today. Looking at slide three, the strength of our recurring fee model drove second quarter performance largely in line with our expectations. The combination of higher interest rates and tight inventory has made for a challenging housing market and agent recruiting and retention environment. However, we are pleased to see continued REMAX agent count growth in Canada and our global regions. In the U.S., while we saw a decline in agent count growth, the pace of our U.S. agent count losses slowed quarter over quarter, which is positive given market conditions. We remain squarely focused on our strategic growth initiatives, and as we continue to build our related pipelines, we believe we're positioned for improved U.S. agent count performance. On the mortgage side, we know it's ramping up, and we continue to expand our motto franchise sales operations. The addition of experienced personnel with in-depth franchise expertise to our inside sales team is just one reason we are optimistic about increasing the pace of monofranchise sales in the second half of 2023 and beyond. Some of our notable quarterly financial highlights include REMAX Holdings total revenue of $82.4 million. We generated just the EBITDA of $26.6 million and our adjusted EBITDA margin was 32.3%. And adjusted diluted EPS was $0.40. Regarding the CEO search, we've had robust interest in the position, and multiple internal and external candidates have actively participated in the process. We still plan to announce our next leader by the end of the summer. With that, I'll turn it over to Ward.

Thanks, Steve. Turning this slide forward, despite the current market conditions, our mortgage business is growing, which we believe is both encouraging and rare at this particular moment. We're seeing terrific results on the WEMO front as business continues to increase month over month throughout the second quarter. We met or exceeded our expectations in both the number of loans submitted and in loans cleared to close. Many factors are contributing to WEMO's increasing success, including a full sales team with a mature process and built-in accountability, increasing interest for WEMO services from both our model network as well as the wider industry, a greater number of model franchisees using the WEMO loan brokering system that is integrated with WEMO's processing services, and additional transactions as the model network grows. On the model side, in terms of open offices, our team is doing a great job of moving new franchisees through the process. We're doing it better and faster than we ever have. With eight franchise sales in Q2, we had a decent quarter, all things considered. And while our velocity needs to increase, as we believe it will, we're proud of our accomplishments of continuing to grow our mortgage business during this environment and encourage that our pool of prospective franchisees continues to steadily improve. For example, one of our second quarter sales was to a roughly 300-agent real estate brokerage affiliated with another national brand. This type of sale can be a catalyst for additional interest. And it's a good example of the caliber of candidates we're getting into the pipeline. We continue to see real estate brokers and teams, the players, including some big ones who have proximity to real estate transactions doubling down right now. They're seeing the benefits of expanding into the mortgage space and recognizing that Motto is a compelling opportunity for them to do so. They have the transactions and they're interested in the financing side of the equation. Just over a year ago, when we set forth our plan of expanding Motto Salesforce, Our initial goal was to hire additional, highly qualified sales professionals, which we've done. However, we also experienced some staff attrition, which set us back a bit. Fortunately, during the process, we recognized a better option with the potential for greater and more immediate impact. We could hire an inside sales team with a proven track record of success as another franchisor, and that's just what we've done. Our new inside sales team hired last month will do the hard but worthwhile work of proactively calling and vetting prospects. We're very excited to have an in-house group that has worked together and achieved promising results previously. They understand the franchise business model, and they are excited to join Motto as we are to have them. We believe they can make a difference in the pace of our franchise sales during the second half of the year and beyond. Based on their success, we plan to hire additional field sales resources to handle the increased volume of interest. And speaking with many of our franchisees, we believe most are faring pretty well considering they're operating in the worst industry conditions since the great financial crisis of 15 years ago. But as Terry noted on last quarter's call, some of them need temporary assistance as a bridge over a rough patch. Combining that with the slowdown in franchise sales we've experienced over the past year, we now expect our mortgage segment to generate roughly $1 million less of revenue this year than we originally forecasted in February. All in all, though we're not yet growing at the rate we expect it to, we continue to adjust as needed and invest strategically for future growth. We believe we are well positioned for success when the market rebounds. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Nick.

Thank you, Ward. Moving to slide five, our worldwide agent count grew by more than 500 agents year over year as of the end of the second quarter. Agent count growth outside of the USA and Canada accelerated to 7% during Q2, with countries including Turkey, Peru, Brazil, and South Africa adding a notable number of agents. We believe the enduring global appeal of the RE-MAX brand and the impact of effective recruiting campaigns are the primary drivers of our success. Canada also continues to be an amazing growth story. Despite the rebalancing market, our presence continues to grow north of the border. Except for January, Canadian agent count has grown in every month this year, and it's happened across the country. Our Canadian affiliates are continuing to recruit from a variety of sources, including re-recruiting a lot of so-called boomerang agents, which are one-time REMAX agents who leave the system to kick the tires at a competitor or only to realize they should have maybe never left the worldwide leader. An example is a former number one REMAX team who left for not only one, but two competitors, only to return to REMAX during the second quarter after two years away. The power of the brand combined with the unmatched support and professionalism at their local REMAX brokerage were a key determinant in their return home. More stories like this are out there, and we expect to see even greater number of agents and teams come back in the future. In the U.S., our monthly agent count losses narrowed during the second quarter compared to Q1, which was encouraging. We continue to see steady progress from our teams and conversions, mergers, and acquisition growth initiatives, as well as from our max recruit growth program. However, the gains are not enough yet to offset the industry-wide contraction that is impacting us as well. The team of pilot we launched last August is helping our affiliates gradually expand and retain existing teams and build pipelines of prospective large teams in the five pilot states of California, Florida, Maryland, New Jersey, and Texas. You might recall that the program includes a package of training, technology, and attractive economics for teams of six or more. Whether it's REMAX teams growing into six members, large teams joining the network, or existing teams staying with us at a higher rate, this initiative is showing promise. We've both added and grown larger teams at a higher rate than we had before in the pilot states. But the biggest impact has been on helping current affiliates grow their existing teams, which is a really desirable outcome. It's well documented that REMAX agents outsell competing agents by more than two to one at large brokerages. And while agents working as individual producers closed almost two-thirds of the REMAX networks to nearly 800,000 U.S. residential transaction sites last year, Teams led the way in agent productivity. Teams made up approximately 30% of the U.S. RENAX agents and contributed slightly more than one-third of the production last year. Moreover, RENAX agents on teams of six to ten agents averaged 35% more transaction size and 40% more sales volume than individual RENAX producers. We see similar impressive results among our Canadian teams as well. It's statistics like these that have us so focused on our team's initiative. We like how the pilot program is advancing, and based on the successes we've seen so far, we recently announced an expansion of the program to Arizona and an extension of the pilot within the six states through the end of this year. With respect to our program around brokerage conversions, mergers, and acquisitions, we continue to add to both the number of closings and to our pipeline of prospects. We've successfully converted or helped some of our existing franchisees merge or acquire many smaller brokerages. And importantly, we are seeing more sizable transactions. Inception to date, we have completed almost 60 transactions, some of which are still in confidential status, and we anticipate hundreds of agents have or will come into our network as a result. We believe this is just the beginning. Seeing some of these larger opportunities convert as well as many of the smaller ones is proof of concept that should help build on our momentum going forward. The rollout of Max Tech powered by KB Corp continues to add to the recruiting value proposition of local franchisees. The latest figures show adoption and engagement results that are well above industry averages and broker owners in both the US and Canada can leverage the technology as a tool in their recruiting and retention efforts. Now, a little more than a year after announcing the move, the transition to Max Tech powered by KB Core has gone extremely well. We believe it's positioning our offices for even better results once the macro environment has normalized a bit more. And lastly, Max Recruit. The growth program we unveiled in April continues to gain traction. Participation in the live training, monthly growth calls, and multiple coaching options has topped 2,600 attendees, which is higher than anticipated. To date, participating brokerages are out recruiting their peers. MaxRecruit involves some new resources and services, but it centers largely on accountability and keeping franchisees focused on the recruiting activities that they need to do in order to grow. It's not an overnight solve to every recruiting challenge, but it's laying the groundwork for more consistent and sustained growth over time. We're extremely pleased by these results so far. With that, over to Carrie.

Thank you, Nick. Good morning, everyone. Moving to slide six, second quarter revenue declined 10.6% to 82.4 million. Excluding the marketing funds, revenue was 61.4 million, a decrease of approximately 11% compared to the same period last year. This decrease was driven by negative 10.5% organic growth and adverse foreign currency movements of 0.9%. Organic growth decreased primarily due to lower broker fees and, to a lesser extent, reduction in U.S. agent counts, partially offset by higher mortgage segment revenue. Recall that roughly 60 to 65 percent of our annual revenue, excluding the marketing funds, is recurring in nature in the form of monthly continuing franchise fees or annual agent dues. Only about 25 percent of that revenue is from the variable broker fees, which represents our share of the agent's commission. Looking at Q2, When overall existing U.S. home sales were down over 20% year-over-year, our organic revenue was down only 3%, excluding broker fees. Turning to slide 7, Q2 selling, operating, and administrative expenses decreased 1.4% to $40.2 million, primarily due to changes in the fair value of the contingent consideration liabilities and lower legal fees, partially offset by higher bad debt expense personnel expenses, and events-related expenses. We continue to believe the collective health of our affiliates within both networks remains strong. Having said that, we are facing a modest decline in collections, which negatively impacted bad ed expense during the quarter. This is to be expected given the rebalancing housing market and is consistent with what we have witnessed during prior downturns. Overall, current market conditions have largely pressured our top line and our margins by extension. We continue to monitor our expenses closely and look for efficiencies. Moving to slide eight, regarding our outlook, we tightened up our full-year guidance ranges overall. In doing so, the midpoint of 2023 agent count guidance moved up a half a point based on the strength of international agent growth. The midpoint of our full-year revenue guidance moved down slightly, as did the midpoint of our 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance, consistent with the trend we mentioned on our last earnings call. Now, on to our outlook. The company's third quarter and full year 2023 outlook assumes no further currency movements, acquisitions, or divestitures. For the third quarter of 2023, we expect agent count to change 0 to 1% over third quarter 2022, revenue in a range of $78.5 million to $83.5 million, including revenue from the marketing funds in a range of $20 million to $22 million, and adjusted EBITDA in a range of $23.5 million to $26.5 million. For the full year 2023, we now expect agent count to change 0% to 1% over full year 2022, revenue in a range of $320 million to $332 million, including revenue from the marketing funds in a range of $82.5 million to $86.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA in a range of $92 million to $98 million. Now, I'll turn the call over to Steve for closing comments.

Looking at slide 9, we made progress during the second quarter on reinvigorating our U.S. agent count growth and are pleased that our mortgage business continues to grow. However, there is still much work to be done. We believe our strategic initiatives have the potential of improving our organic growth rate and creating meaningful value over the longer term. Though the macroeconomic climate has reduced their near-term impact, we believe our initiatives will meaningfully jumpstart our results as the housing industry resumes growing again. With that, operator, let's open it up for questions.

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star, then 1 on your telephone keypad. The first question is from Ryan McKeveney with Zalman & Associates. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, guys. Thank you for taking the question. So I know you don't break out transactions each quarter across the company, but I guess just with the size and scale of the organization, is it fair to think that it's something like 50-50 between agents working with buyers versus sellers or any skew generally that RE-MAX might have toward listing agents? versus buyer agents, you know, compared to the industry overall. So that's kind of part one. And then part two, and maybe this would be Nick, on the listing side specifically, I guess just any thoughts generally that you're either picking up from your agents or franchisees or, you know, the research you guys do in terms of what might change the stuck factor that's out there? Is it primarily just hopefully interest rates move lower and the stuck factor goes away? We have seen there's been some legislation or legislative ideas thrown out there around changes to capital gains and various things speculated on. So I guess I'm just curious, what do you guys think is the likely outcome going forward from just more listings eventually coming to the market? Thanks a lot.

Nick, why don't you take that?

Sure. Hi, Ryan. In terms of the first question, I'd say generally the split is around 50-50 on buy or list side. I will say if it had to favor one side, generally more top producers, which caters to REMAX, will favor the listing side somewhat heavier. But for the most part, fairly equal split. As far as how we see the step factor, I like that term. I think interest rates right now combined with consumer confidence. What we've seen this year, when you look at even a little dip in rates, we see showings immediately go up that week. And that obviously results in pendings. And so you can watch the activity at the micro level from showings to pendings, which in 30 to 45 days results to closings. We see rates tick up a little bit. We all of a sudden see that showing activity decline as much as 20 or 30%. And so as we look at the outlook of the remainder of the year and moving into next year, if rates come down a little bit, it gives consumer confidence to get a little bit higher and we see a little bit more inventory. I have said, though, that I think the spring market was a little bit lackluster because the move-up buyer didn't come to the market like they historically have. People are in love with their rates and statistically having 90% of homeowners with a mortgage have a rate under 5% and of that, 50% or under three and a half, those are historic numbers. And so that move up buyers and love up their rate and not super excited to come to the market. And that's where we think the inventory has been at a little bit of a hold. I think that'll affect us a little bit in 24, but we know that lifestyle and life changes actually are the ultimate driver. And so that'll flush through the system likely throughout the next year.

Yeah, that makes sense. Okay. Thank you guys.

The next question is from John Campbell with Stevens. Your line is open.

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Morning, Joe.

Morning. Hey, on mortgage, Ward, you talked to a million-dollar haircut, I think, for the annual guidance this year. It'd be great if you could maybe help us just with a refresher there. What's the REV contributions you're expecting now for the full year? How does that look relative to last year? And then From a profit standpoint, how far off is the mortgage offering or segment from profitability or maybe just that just a kind of positive inflection?

Sure. Hey, good morning, John. It's Carrie.

So, you know, as Ward stated, you know, we're very excited that the mortgage business is continuing to grow right now, despite the market conditions. You know, the revenue headwind is really driven by a couple of factors. We've seen franchise sales just given what's happened from a macro perspective and how it's impacting mortgage just impacts the velocity of sales. doing some exciting things to try and jumpstart that, but that's a factor. And then as we provide some temporary relief to our mortgage franchisees, as they kind of go through this rough patch, we're looking at deferring a little bit of that revenue, and that's creating pressure on the top line as well. So those are the biggest headwinds. Kind of looking at the revenue contribution for the segment through the first half of the year, kind of in that $7 million range, I think that's a reasonable estimate, a little bit higher than that maybe for the back half of the year. And then from a profitability perspective, you know, the mortgage segment really has two arms to it. The legacy model franchise business, which really has the nice 100% franchise business economics, that business is really kind of at or approaching break even. Where we're really investing is on the wean low side. the loan brokering system from a technology platform as well as the loan processing services and so that's really where the investment is and so really looking at kind of break even you know probably the back half of next year or into the following okay very very helpful and then on the ongoing industry lawsuits I know you guys are not at liberty to really comment on that you guys have also I mean clearly ramped up your legal costs and you've made the decision not to back it out of your adjusted results

I'm pretty certain that you can get a sense for that degree of spend, I guess, on the professional services within the OPEX breakout. But so first, is that the right way to think about it? And then secondly, it does look like it stepped down. And Kerry, I think you actually mentioned a little bit lighter legal spend. Any sense for whether that kind of level holds, I guess, until there's resolution on the legal front?

Kerry?

Yeah, so John, you're right. I mean, as you can imagine,

The timing around these is sometimes difficult to predict and the quarterly run rate can be a little bit challenging. You're right Q2 was a little bit lighter. As we look at the back half of the year, it's really going to be dependent. You're right in terms of the nature of the expenses. They are all professional fees associated with us vigorously defending ourselves. And the timing in which, you know, some of the upcoming trial activity happens could impact us. So obviously, if we really ramp up and some of that hits us in Q4, you know, we're looking at probably some increased spend and maybe, you know, pushing us, you know, midpoint or below the guidance range. And if that pushes into next year, you know, we could have some favorability go in the other direction.

Okay. Thank you.

Yep.

The next question is from Ronald Camden with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Hey, thanks so much. Just a couple quick ones. So first on the, just a little bit more color on the EBITDA guidance changes between sort of revenues and expenses. How do we break out sort of what changed before? And I know you touched on it earlier, but we'd love to hear the delta this quarter. Sure.

Yeah, good morning, Ron.

So as we look at it, it still continues to be a really challenging time to try and forecast the full year. A couple things to keep in mind. Last quarter, we mentioned a couple of things with regards to where we were trending from a profit perspective, kind of below and toward the bottom half of our pre-existing range. driven by some expense unfavorability in Q1 related to our conference in bad debt expense. Those bad debt expense trends have continued into Q2. And just with the uncertainty from a macro perspective, that's creating a little bit of headwinds as well. And then from a cost structure perspective, some of the uncertainty around those legal expenses that I mentioned is also presenting some uncertainty. And then on the top line, I did mention a little bit with regards to the mortgage segment and then a little bit with respect to some U.S. agent count activity as well. So those are kind of the puts and takes. But given the recurring fee model, we feel like we've got a better shot in terms of our estimates and the revisions that we made represent our best estimates right now.

Got it. Helpful. And then just on the cash conversion in the quarter, just looking at the operating cash flows was pretty pretty light maybe was there was there any one-timers this time around uh just because i it's trending a lot lower than it was at this time last year um so maybe he talked about any one-timers there and what's the right sort of cash conversion we should be thinking about terry yeah so um not any significant one-time conversions really just some working capital things that were kind of flew through flew through in the quarter

think as we look ahead you know the hundred percent franchise model there's a reason why we're franchised across both brands and while the cash conversion is down a little bit from a you know adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow conversion for the full year we're still kind of looking in that that 50% range got it sorry and if I could just think in one more so we've talked about before the hundred million dollar annual mortgage revenue target

for the business and so forth. Just maybe how are you guys thinking about that? Is that still on track? Is that something that could get delayed? You know, just any update on that longer term growth opportunity.

Thanks. Okay.

Yeah, I think that's still the long-term opportunity for sure. I think the macro economy right now and the lack of refis in the business because the rate lock has changed the dynamic a little bit in the short term. We hope that rates start to take down. I look at the 10-year and think there's some risk premium built into the mortgage rate today that if The economy settles and people don't think we're going to go into recession. I think there's room for rates to come down, which would improve. Right? But we're focusing our franchisees on recruiting loan originators right now, getting those agent relationships up that are the key to purchase money referrals. So, as long as we continue to do that, continue to focus on the right people to sell to, and we're finding some great realtor partners, as we talked about on the call, you know, large independent brands, remaxes, et cetera, that we still think have interest right now. And we think that is going to lead to that long-term opportunity just might take a little bit longer.

Helpful. Any thanks.

The next question is from Sacker with BBG. Your line is open.

Is that Soham?

Yes, we can hear you, caller. Please go ahead.

Great. Hey, thanks for taking the questions. Wanted to maybe dive a little bit more into the U.S. agent count trends here. Can you maybe just give us a little bit more flavor for the competitive landscape today? You know, how are your agent counts sort of comparing to some of your competitors? And I don't know if you want to sort of segment that by full service or, you know, other cloud-based peers, but more color on that would be really helpful.

Nick, why don't you start?

Sure. Overall, when you look at the industry as a whole, we're seeing some level of contraction just in overall agent licenses. But I've mentioned before, keep in mind that it's somewhat of a lagging indicator because license renewals on a statewide basis are typically a 24, 36-month renewal process. And so if agents have elected to exit the business or many times if they are moving their license prior to a renewal, they will move it to a discount type brokerage or a no fee type of brokerage before they let it expire. So there is somewhat of a process that you generally see across the industry. But overall, there is contraction. We see that amongst a number of competitors in the industry as a whole. Our recurring revenue model combined with the level of production that our agents do helps us navigate changes in the market Plus, our agents have twice as much experience, and so the adaptability of moving through market conditions is a lot higher, but yet we're not totally immune to it. But overall, we're not seeing the number of licensees go up in any part of the segment. For the most part, it's going down.

Got it. Okay. And then I guess just on the new updated agent count guide, what are you sort of embedding here in the back half for the U.S. business? Because it seems like the strength is really coming from Canada and international. So could you maybe just talk about what you're sort of modeling in the back half for U.S. agent count here?

I can start just in general, and then Carrie, maybe if you want to talk about the modeling piece of it. You're right, Canada continues to be a pretty incredible growth story, and I think that's really driven by the amount of market share that we have across the entire country. We have a very strong number one position, and in many areas across the country, a very, very strong number one position. I think that helps contribute to the overall growth. As far as globally, I highlighted in the scripted remarks a couple of countries, all of which have one common theme, which is the culture, but yet there are some differences. Some are really investing in training. Some have some economic incentives. Peru, for example, has a new reporting system which just helps more timeliness. So there are just a number of things that are unique when it comes to each country. Carrie, do you want to talk about the model piece?

Sure. So as we look at agent count, we did adjust our agent count expectations given some of the strength that Nick was just mentioning across Canada and global. And then as we look at kind of the U.S., You know, we do expect that we're, you know, gaining a little bit of traction and momentum with some of our growth initiatives and hope that what we've seen kind of in Q2 is, you know, stabilizing and on a year-over-year basis is going to improve a little bit sequentially as we get into the back half of the year.

Okay. And just a quick last one. On the July numbers, is it fair to assume that the decline was driven by the U.S. business, or did you see some decline in Canada as well there?

Yeah, so when we look at the July numbers, that's a good way to look at it. I would say the July trend was pretty consistent with what we saw in Q2.

Great. Thank you so much. We have no further questions at this time. I'll turn it back over to Andy Schultz for any closing remarks.

Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone for joining us on the call today. This does conclude our call. Have a great day.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call.

We now disconnect.