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10/28/2020
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Renaissance Re Third Quarter 2020 Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask questions during the session, you'll need to press star 1 on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you require any further assistance, please press star zero. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Keith McHugh, Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. McHugh.
Good morning. Thank you for joining our third quarter financial results conference call. Yesterday, after the market closed, we issued our quarterly release. If you didn't receive a copy, please call me at 441-239-7000. and we'll make sure to provide you with one. There will be an audio replay of the call available from about 2 p.m. Eastern time today through midnight on November 28th. The replay can be accessed by dialing 855-859-2056, U.S. toll-free, or 1-404-537-3406 internationally. The passcode you will need for both numbers is 296-8847. Today's call is also available through the investor information section of www.renry.com and will be archived on Renaissance Re's website through midnight on November 28, 2020. Before we begin, I'm obliged to caution that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements and actual results may differ materially from those discussed. Additional information regarding the factors shaping these outcomes can be found in Renaissance Re's SEC Filings to which we direct you. With us to discuss today's results are Kevin O'Donnell, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Bob Futub, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I'd now like to turn the call over to Kevin.
Kevin? Thanks, Keith. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. Once again, we find ourselves at the end of a very active third quarter, which saw numerous named storms making landfall in the U.S., record-breaking wildfires across the West Coast, and multiple typhoons in Asia. We extend our sympathies to all those impacted by these catastrophes. An important part of our purpose is to support rebuilding and recovery efforts after disasters strike, which we do by providing solutions and protection, sharing our expertise, and paying valid claims promptly. So while our results for the third quarter reflect an elevated level of activity, these are risks that we fully understand and are paid to take, and I am proud of the role we play helping people when they need it most. The Q3 2020 large loss events were driven in particular by Hurricanes Laura and Sally in the Gulf of Mexico and the wildfires in California, Oregon, and Washington. The fourth quarter has also been active so far with Hurricane Delta making landfall as a Category 2 in nearly the same location as Hurricane Laura and continued wildfire activity. Last year, during our third quarter call, I discussed our belief that climate change contributes to making extreme events more frequent and more severe. This year, it is already clear that we are experiencing an especially active season for both wildfire and wind. On the West Coast, California wildfires have already consumed more than 4 million acres in 2020. which is more than double either 2017 or 2018 and has resulted in over 90 million metric tons of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere. For perspective, this is one and a half times more carbon dioxide than is released in powering the entire state for a year. We continue to believe that there is strong evidence that climate change is increasing wildfire risk in California for two primary reasons. First, California's climate is hotter and drier now than at any time in the past 120 years. Higher temperatures and longer dry seasons accelerate the desiccation and death of vegetation creating fuel for larger, more intense wildfires. Second, climate change extends the length of the dry season into the late autumn causing it to overlap with the Diablo and Santa Ana winds. This combination of high heat and strong winds results in the dramatic spread of damaging fires as we have experienced in 2017 and 2018. Climate change is also influencing hurricane risk. Due to a globally warmed world, we anticipate a future where a greater proportion of tropical cyclones reach category four or category five status. Climate change also drives sea level rise, which increases the impacts from storm surge. While there have always been natural cycles of variability in sea surface temperatures, we believe recent increases are primarily a product of climate change. Consequently, sea surface temperatures and associated hurricane activity will not revert to lower levels of prior periods. Rather, the heightened activity levels of the last two decades are likely the new normal for Atlantic hurricane. Vendor cap models, however, rely on the long-term historical record to estimate risk. Unfortunately, due to climate change, This long-term record of past experience may no longer be a reliable guide for what we can expect in the future. Making the problem worse, human behavior can interact in complex ways with climate change to amplify risk of loss. For example, we have seen a long-term trend to build on coastlines or in the wildland-urban interface, often with building codes and materials that fail to provide resilience in the face of natural perils. Recognizing the fact that climate change is increasing the risk of natural disasters is only the first step, however. To gain a true competitive advantage, this insight must be accurately reflected in the CAT models used to price risk. Our scientists, meteorologists, and engineers at Renaissance Re-Risk Sciences have been studying the impact of climate change on natural hazards for decades. They believe that a physical model informed by historical observations but calibrated to our best understanding of how the climate has and will continue to change, creates the best basis for categorizing the full distribution of outcomes that should be written against. Applying these insights, Renaissance Re-Risk Sciences works closely with our underwriters and risk managers to build proprietary CAT models that capture the physics and future impact of climate change. Our approach sets us apart from many other underwriters or ILS managers who often rely on a single vendor model that fails to capture the true impact of a changed climate. This can result in an optimistic representation of risk and overestimation of expected profit and dollar returns. This has obvious implications for ILS investors, but building proprietary climate change-informed CAT models goes beyond investments in CAT risk and benefits all of our stakeholders. Our ILS partners rely on us to accurately model the risks inherent to their investment. Our clients appreciate the superior customer service that we can provide through deeper insight into the full distribution of their risk profile, which often leads to increased demand for our products. And our shareholders benefit from the more efficient portfolios of risk we can construct as well as our enhanced sustainability. Contrary to some perspectives, accurately pricing for climate risk does not put us at a competitive disadvantage to our peers. Rather, an industry-leading understanding of the influence of climate on risk is a key component of superior risk selection, allowing us to shape our portfolios by growing on the best business and shrinking on the worst. Moving on from climate change, I want to take a minute to discuss capital deployment opportunities. As we enter the important January 1 renewal period, I believe we will have one of the best opportunities in many years to profitably deploy material additional capital. Our focus on superior risk selection should prove increasingly valuable as the combination of historically low interest rates, the Q3 2020 large loss events, and material trapped capital put additional upward pressure on reinsurance rates. We have legacy positions on the best programs, first call status, to capture opportunistic and off-cycle business, and significant capital to support growth on new and existing profitable opportunities. I'll provide more detailed update on the renewal in our segments at the end of the call, but first I'll turn it over to Bob to discuss the financial performance for the quarter.
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