Rithm Property Trust Inc. Common stock

Greetings and welcome to the RPT Realty fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Craig Benigno. Senior Analyst, Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for RPT's fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, management would like me to inform you that certain statements made during this conference call, which are not historical, may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Additionally, statements made during the call are made as of the date of this call. Listeners to any replay should understand that the passage of time by itself will diminish the quality of the statements made. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, factors and risks could cause actual results to differ from expectations. Certain of these factors are described as risk factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022, that will be filed later today and in our earnings release for the fourth quarter of 2022. Certain of these statements made on today's call also involve non-GAAP financial measures. Listeners are directed to our fourth quarter 2022 press release, which includes definitions of those non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the nearest GAAP measures, and which are available on our website in the investor section. I would now like to turn the call over to President and CEO Brian Harper and CFO Mike Fitzmaurice for the opening remarks, after which we will open the call for questions.

Thank you, Craig. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call today. The start of 2022, uncertainty around the economic environment, specifically inflation, began to take shape. It was only a matter of time before inflation took over the headlines. As I say often to the team, control the controllables, act with urgency, and turn risk into opportunity. Simply put, play offense. We leaned into our playbook and focused on five areas. Lease, lease, lease. strengthen and diversify our cash flows through our three differentiated investment platforms, increase our assets under management, add duration to the balance sheet, and lastly, reduce short and long-term floating rate risk. Our team quickly became aligned, leading us to execute with excellence across all business units. We finished the year on a great note with top and bottom line growth in addition to another dividend raise. 2022 same property NOI growth was 4.3%, and operating FFO per share growth was 9.5%. Given the high level of visibility into our growth trajectory over the next few years, we raised our first quarter dividend by 8%. Over the last two years, we have experienced not only an acceleration of our portfolio transformation into wealthy and growing markets such as Boston and Miami, But we have also seen a re-acceleration of demand from retailers due to a very low supply environment coupled with our well-located and affluent open-air shopping center locations. We had another banner year across all operational metrics. Our leasing team remained locked in as we ended the year signing 69 leases covering 500,000 square feet during the fourth quarter. culminating in full year activity of 2.2 million square feet, the highest annual leasing volume achieved since 2014. This activity pushed our lease rate to 93.8%, up 70 basis points year over year, and putting us near our pre-pandemic levels. Embedded in our lease rate is about 390 basis points of occupancy growth, one of the highest levels in our peer set, which translates to over 11 million of rent and recovery income that has yet to come online. We also continue to drive rent, increase annual escalators, and retain our tenant base. Over the trailing 12 months, we produced a new comparable releasing spread of 43%, and annual escalators of nearly 200 basis points for the new leases signed during the year. Retention was 88% in 2022, as we are seeing retailers pay a premium to remain within our revamped portfolio, which is predominantly located in the top 40 MSAs, as they face limited new supply and increased move-out costs. A significant portion of our leasing activity is related to our value-enhancing re-merchandising, redevelopment, and outlook expansion pipeline. where we have built a track record of replacing struggling retailers with more creditworthy tenants at double-digit returns. In the fourth quarter, we delivered three projects totaling $11 million and an average return on cost of 11%. Today, our active value-enhancing pipeline totals $45 million at blended returns of 9% to 11% with top-tier retailers including Publix, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Ulta, BJ's Wholesale, Baptist Health, and Sephora. Regarding our redevelopment pipeline, we expect to share more details later this year in connection with projects at Hunter Square Asset in Oakland County, Michigan, and Marketplace at Delray in the Miami market. We are in discussions with high-credit national and essential tenants for both sites. As we look ahead, demand across the portfolio remains very strong from national retailers looking to expand their footprints in high-quality locations. We continue to see the most demand from discount apparel, club stores, grocers, restaurants, wellness, and medical tenants. Given this demand, our new leasing pipeline remains robust, totaling over $7 million. This activity will be a key driver of occupancy growth as we stabilize our portfolio to our targeted occupancy level of 95% plus over the long term. In fact, we expect to eclipse nearly 2 million square feet of lease commencements in 2023 for the second year in a row. And while bankruptcies have been in the headlines of late, tenant fallout is a natural part of the retail environment and nothing new. for experienced landlords such as us. Our ability to recapture space provides us with the opportunity to showcase the quality of our portfolio and our operating platform as we anticipate releasing these spaces with significantly better tenant credit on an earnings accretive basis. At the end of the year, we had eight Bed Bath Concepts and four Bye Bye Babies. While their situation remains fluid, it is not a surprise. We have been preparing for this situation internally for several years and have put a strategy in motion to create meaningful value through the re-merchandising of these sites. Our leasing team has been cultivating a pipeline of replacement tenants And our very low embedded rents of about $11.50 per square foot provide us with an opportunity to drive rents into the mid-teens range, favorably positioning us to aggressively recapture our location. While we already have significant interest on all bed, bath, and bye-bye locations, we are in advanced negotiations on four of them, which we maintain control of. We are at lease with a leading off-price retailer, DeBafo One, at a 40% releasing spread, with the location set to open in the fourth quarter of this year. For the three remaining locations, we are out for lease with top national retailers at Winchester Center and Hunter Square in Oakland County, Michigan, and are in negotiations for a lease for another. Average rents for these locations were $10.50, with new rents being discussed in the $15 to $16 range, with minimal expected downtime of 12 months on these four deals. Of the remaining locations, it's important to note that four are buy-buy concepts. However, if we were to get the opportunity to recapture all of them, we would expect downtime to range between 12 to 18 months at releasing spreads of 20%. We have multiple backfill options for these locations that are in various stages of negotiations with categories including discount, grocer, medical, health and beauty, and liquor stores, to name a few. Regarding Regal, we have three locations in the portfolio, and none are on the closure list, and each is current on rent payments. At this point, we believe all three locations will be assumed by the surviving entity based on advanced negotiations. We had another strong year on the investment front. We finished within the top quartile of U.S. open-air shopping center buyers in 2022, completing $375 million of acquisitions across all three investment platforms, bringing our two-year acquisition volume to $921 million. At year end, our AUM was $3.6 billion, up 57% since 2018. During the fourth quarter, we closed on the contributions of two core stabilized Midwest assets, Shops at Lane in Columbus and Troy Marketplace in Detroit. These were contributed to our grocery-anchored joint venture platform, which provided the funding for our share of the acquisition of Mary Brickle Village. Although we curtailed our investment activities in the second half of the year as we wait for markets to adjust to the new rate environment, we continue to actively scour our target markets for potential acquisitions. The good news is that we have excellent liquidity between cash and revolver availability and no debt maturities for the next two years, which puts us in a great position to quickly respond to changing market conditions. Also, our joint ventures remain a competitive advantage that provides us with long-term capital and allows us to generate above-market returns while also expanding the breadth of opportunities that we can pursue. Let's touch on Mary Brickell. The asset continues to exceed our expectations. Today, occupancy is 83%, up 5% since we closed on the asset last summer, and we expect it to exceed 90% by the end of 2023. Street-level rents are currently in the $150 to $200 range versus our in-place average rent per square foot in the mid-40s. We have multiple opportunities to recapture leases on both the east and west side of Miami Avenue that will help us deliver a best-in-class, iconic property and capture the growing mark-to-market opportunity over the next few years. Beyond this, we continue to evaluate long-term densification plans that will potentially unlock tremendous value for shareholders as we capitalize on the flexible zoning at the site that allows for up to 4.1 million square feet of residential office or hotel use in the heart of Miami's Brooklyn neighborhood. Finally, we initiated operating FFO per diluted share guidance of 97 cents to $1.01, which includes our expectation of same property NOI growth of 1.5% to 3.25%. Included in our outlook is a prudent level of bad debt considering the current situation with a few at-risk tenants. Mike will provide more details on how we're thinking about bad debt and our overall outlook for 2023 in his prepared remarks. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'll discuss our fourth quarter 2022 operating and financial results in more detail, provide an overview of our financing activities completed during the year, and end with commentary to help everyone understand the business expectations embedded in our 2023 earnings outlook. Fourth quarter operating FFO per share of $0.24 was ahead of our internal plan for the quarter, but down $0.03 from last quarter, primarily due to the impact of contributions of our shops on lane and trolley marketplace properties into our grocery anchor joint venture and higher G&A expense. Same property NOI growth for the quarter came in ahead of plan at 1.1%, driving full year same property NOI growth to 4.3%, just above the high end of our expected range. Our stronger-than-expected performance for the year was fueled by 2% base rent growth after adjusting for some offsetting accounting movements between base rent and bad debt as we regained occupancy, drove rent, and pushed our annual escalators. Our sign-not-commence backlog remains elevated at $11.2 million, or about 7% of annualized fourth-quarter NOI, providing us visibility on future earnings growth. We also continue to open tenants on time and on schedule despite the challenges facing the construction market. This quarter, we commenced leases covering over $4 million of rent. As a result of the high level of rent commencements during the fourth quarter, our occupancy rate increased 100 basis points sequentially as we continue to stabilize the portfolio toward our target of 95% plus over the long term. Our S&O backlog will continue to provide earnings tailwinds through 2025 with a total incremental benefit to operating FFO expected to be about $0.12 per share. We expect the cadence to be $0.05 in 2023, $0.06 in 2024, and $0.01 in 2025. I was very pleased with our balance sheet management in 2022. We prudently and opportunistically accessed debt, equity, and derivative markets to keep leverage in check, improve duration, and reduce floating rate risk. Ahead of the disruption in the capital markets, we refinanced and upsized our credit facility and paid off all near-term debt maturities. In December, after inflation started to show signs of easing, coupled with a highly inverted yield curve, we entered into forward starting swaps that lock rate on all of our term loans through their respective maturities. And earlier this week, Fitch reaffirmed our BBB minus investment credit grade rating with a stable outlook. Today, we have over $470 million of liquidity, no debt maturing until 2025, and only 5% floating rate debt exposure. We ended the fourth quarter with net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA of 6.9 times, down from 7.0 times last quarter, including our signed not commenced backlog. Our leverage would be 6.3 times, giving us confidence that we will be near our long-term target of 6.0 times in the next couple of years. Moving on to our initial 2023 outlook. we are establishing an operating FFO per diluted share guidance range of $0.97 to $1.001. Embedded in this range is an expectation of same property NOI growth of 1.5% to 3.25%. With about 75% of our 2023 leasing plan already completed and a healthy S&O backlog, we start the year on great footing. The wild card will be the impact of retail bankruptcies. The midpoint of our operating FFO guidance assumes lost rent totaling 300 basis points of NOI, which is comprised of our typical bad debt reserve of 75 basis points, as well as an additional 225 basis points tied to Regal, FedVAS and beyond, Party City, and Tuesday morning, which covers the impact of both lost rent from recently recaptured spaces as well as additional forecasted lease rejections and rent reductions. To get to the high end of our operating FFO per diluted share range, we would need to have a more favorable outcome on lease rejections and rent reductions. The low end of the range assumes that we recapture all eight of our bed-bath concepts, all five of our party city leases in both Tuesday morning locations in the second quarter of this year. As you think about the bridge from the $1.04 per share we reported in 2022 to the $0.99 midpoint of our 2023 operating FFO per diluted share guidance, Keep in mind the following timing and one-time headwinds. We realize that one-cent benefit in 2022 from the reversal of straight-line rent reserves and termination income that we do not project in four periods, and four cents due to the timing of net investment activity in 2022 as we front-loaded acquisitions and back-loaded dispositions. In addition, we have $0.03 from NOI coming offline from properties that are being prepared for redevelopment, notably Hunter Square in Oakland County, Michigan, and Marketplace of Delray in the Miami market. These headwinds are partially offset by expected same-property NOI growth that adds about $0.03, despite the elevated levels of bad debt embedded in our outlook. G&A net of management fee income is expected to be roughly flat year over year as inflationary pressures on G&A are largely offset by rising management fee income from our joint ventures. And with that, I will turn the call back to the operator to open the line for questions.

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from Todd Thomas with KeyBank Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, thanks. Good morning. First, appreciate the detail around the guidance and what's embedded in the guidance for the reserve. And I realize some of the potential disruption may impact occupancy, but Mike, Brian, you both mentioned the targeted occupancy rate of 95% for the portfolio. That's a little more than 500 base points of upside. What's sort of embedded in the guidance for occupancy throughout the year? And where do you expect to maybe be at year end, just given the potential near-term disruption that you discussed? And if you could just share some details there, just trying to get a sense of that and maybe how long you would expect to achieve that occupancy rate.

Sure. Good morning, Todd, and thanks for the question. You know, we have a very healthy sign that commenced pipeline of 11 million, which is coming online over the next couple of years, which is really going to push our occupancy towards that 95% over the long term. But we ended the year just south of 90% at 89.9%. We do expect it to end the year right between 91.5% and 92.5% despite the potential disruption that we could experience for our at-risk tenants, three of which are in bankruptcy.

And, Todd, I would just add, too, you know, outside of the 11 million S&O, we have about 7 million in legal and more even in advanced negotiations behind that in LOI. And these are, you know, iconic, game-changing assets, more grocers, more wholesale, more off-price, more restaurants, more wellness, where really they bring a halo effect. But they're occupying either vacant or, you know, underutilized space today. So that's going to help bring this occupancy up as well. And those pretty much are going to be hitting 24, 25.

Yeah, and one additional comment, Todd, is around the small shop. You know, we ended the year right around 83.5%. And about half our S&O of $11.2 million is tied to small shops, so we should expect small shops to rise over the course of the year between 86% and 87%.

All right, that's helpful.

And then, you know, what's driving this? is sort of the relatively faster backfills. I realize leasing demand is strong, but, you know, for some of these larger boxes, you know, 12 to 18 months, you know, seems relatively, you know, fast. 12 months in particular, you know, there's obviously been, you know, sort of delays around, you know, permitting and equipment deliveries and things of that nature. I'm just wondering, you know, why, you know, you think, you know, sort of 12 months at the low end of the range there's achievable, again, seems a little bit fast for the cycle.

So, Todd, I think a couple things. We've been treating all, let's start with Bed Bath. We've been treating all these as vacant since pre-COVID, just like we did with GAP, just like we did with Acena, just like we did with Pier 1. And I think we were one of the fastest backfills of those three concepts. We have been negotiating leases even we didn't have occupancy of control of that bed bath space. So right now we have four of our eight bed bath stores are soon to be gone and are being placed with tenants with superior credit and sales per square foot profiles. You know, I mentioned on my prepared remarks the 43% releasing spread for an off-price tenant that is open later this year. So that leaves us with really four tenants. And we've been mining each of those tenants for each of these locations, like I said, forever. So we have got a quick jump start on this. That's what I helped with the 12 months. We have tenants in lease and drawing plans. So this wasn't waiting for the recapture. This was proactive asset management.

Okay. That's helpful. And then just lastly, Brian, moving over to investments, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing out there, if deal flow is starting to pick up, how we should think about investments during the the year across the platform and also how we should think about funding investments in the current environment today.

Sure. So we really haven't given guidance on investments prior. What I will say on that note, you know, over the last two years, we've bought almost a billion dollars across our platforms. You know, while their internal remerge redevelopment deal is serving up double digit spreads, that's our best use of capital. We are still scouring our markets for all three platforms. Let me start with RGMZ. You know, I expect to deploy a lot of capital this year. We have been very patient. There's not been much cap rate expansion in the triple net sector. But what I can see us buying are these larger centers where we can chop up the triple net components and seed them into the fund and then sell the remaining center at a later date. That's creating alpha for those investors. Our R2G, that's really straight down the fairway core grocery. Our partner gives us an edge as well as an enhanced yield that we are looking for. With that being said, you saw what we did with Troy and Lane. Could there be more of that, like an accordion feature where we can deploy assets and buy accretively? Potentially. And then RPT, I really see RPT really benefiting from all platforms working together, similar to what we did up in Northboro in COVID, where we seeded four parcels and were left with double-digit yields. And really after now, that's even expanded further just due to our leasing platform, where we have now five TGX concepts at the center, only one in the country that has all five TGX brands. And essentially, that center serves as a TJX bond for our shareholders. So I see more North Bros for RPT, certainly, but we'll give more updated guidance at first quarter.

Okay. All right. Thank you. Thank you.

Our next question is from Wes Galladay with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Oh, hey, good morning, everyone. I'm happy to balance playing offense in sites like Mary Brickle and Delray versus having to allocate resources and capital to backfilling the potential vacancies you cited with Bed Bath and Regal and Tuesday mornings.

It's a balance. It's returns. You know, there's deals that we'll hopefully be announcing soon at Delray that are very low CapEx, call it, you know, very large ground lease numbers that will be minimal CapEx for us. Brickle, you know, the power of Brickle is there's more demand than supply currently. That's just driving pricing. That's driving restaurant volumes. We're three of the top restaurants in the U.S. Next year we'll be in the Brickell neighborhood. So this is a deal, Wes, where, you know, it will be less TA than we even underwrote and probably almost 2x the rent of which we underwrote. Balancing that with the bed bath of the world, you know, bed bath is we're getting very, very attractive yields. You know, the four that I mentioned that we have control over, the average rent is $10.46. Our spreads on those are 43.3% blended. You know, we have a deal in Michigan where there was a $7.25 gross deal. We are applying, you know, $14, $15 rent with a tenant and lease that will do, you know, several, you know, 20x the sales volumes as Bed Bath was doing. So this is all about capital allocation and driving as much return internally as we can possibly get. Yeah.

And Wes, I'll just add this. I mean, to Brian's point earlier from Todd's question is we've been working on these bed bath recaptures and releasing for quite some time. So it's not really incremental work for the company. And then the second thing I would comment on is we hired a highly, highly talented individual in the Miami market to focus solely on Mary Brickle. So we have the right talent and the right focus on not only our new assets like Mary Brickle, but also the release of our at-risk locations.

Got it. And then looking at the, you know, like an example of the marketplace of Delray, kind of you're doing this in a lot of your centers where you just replace the anchor and you kind of gone from one extreme to the other at that center and looks like the area is pretty vibrant or local centers around also redeveloping. And it seems like you can turn the shop base over the next, I don't know, is it a year? Is it the next two years? Like, how long does it take you, though, once you get the anchor in to activate the rest of the center?

It's about 12 months. You know, right now, and I think some of it, especially in a place like Delray Beach, you know, people are scouring for locations. You know, that was a deal, I think it was $14 ABR in a $40 market. especially after a couple anchor deals that we'll announce here soon. A lot of people want to be involved on the front end in secure space even before those tenants open. Doesn't happen everywhere. That will happen in Delray Beach. So we're very confident that we can lease simultaneously even before the anchors open.

Got it. That makes sense. And then You talked about additional zoning at Mary Brickle. Do you think you'll have an announcement this year? Is it going to be a multi-year process? What are your expectations there?

We're really focused on the western parcel, really where Publix and up to Moxie and North as kind of our, you know, leaving that as iconic, trophy, you know, retail. We're doing a lot of deals with wellness and F&B. But for the most part, that will be a modernization of what's currently there. The eastern portion is really where we could maximize the GLA and really where the tenants have the least amount of Walt. So I think this is a multi-year approach, Wes. We're laser focused on making this a place where people flock in an oasis in the jungle, if you will, in the urban jungle. And just the demand, as I said in my prepared remarks, is unlike anything I've ever seen in my career.

Got it. Thanks for the time, everyone. Of course. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Derek Johnston with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Hi. Thank you. This is Connor Peeks on with Derek. On the leasing environment, and given 2022 was at record levels, since the new year, have you seen any change in tenant demand behavior, any change in TI conversation or forward indicators?

No, it's as healthy from what we've seen, and maybe that's due to a new portfolio, but it's as healthy as 22. And in fact, some of the TA requests have come down just because we've had four tenants battling for one space. I like to say you've got to create tension in the market to drive prices up and CapEx down, and that is where we've applied the proactive mindset in assuming these will be vacant one day and not waiting and being reactive, but being proactive in driving rent when we have the controllables in our favor.

And, Connor, one of the metrics that we monitor very, very closely within our four walls here is retention rate. In 21, it was high 80s. In 22, it was high 80s. You know, we expect the same result. 23, 24, 25 based on our projections today. As Brian said in his opening remarks, tenants are willing to pay the premium to stay where they're at within our portfolio because it's much more costly to move somewhere else given the rise in construction costs.

Thank you. And then on private market liquidity, we touched on it a little bit earlier, but are you seeing any standout regional differences in either market depth or cap rate expansion? Thanks.

Not really. I mean, you know, the core grocery has been sticky. I talked about the triple net sticky. I mean, core power even has been sticky, especially if it's mostly cash flow from TGX, Ross, like the investment-grade tenants. It hasn't been much geographically. Obviously, Florida is in an anomaly by itself. And in some ways, you might even see compression. But outside that, it's been – It hasn't really moved that we can see in any geographic concentration.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from RJ Milligan with Raymond Jean. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, good morning, guys. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned you were in advanced discussions with Regal, and you expected those leases to get affirmed through bankruptcy. I'm just curious if there's any associated or anticipated rent cuts with those properties.

Hi. Good morning, RJ. So we have three locations, one in Ohio, one in Michigan. down in Nashville, and then one in the Boston market. All three are very well-performing locations. On two of the three, we expect to take a slight haircut on rent that will effectuate sometime late second quarter into the third quarter.

And so one of the three you expect to get assumed at full rent, and can you quantify the rent reduction on the two?

In terms of the rent reduction on the two, you're looking at right around $500,000 on an annualized basis.

Okay.

And then you guys increased the dividends at a time when, you know, CapEx spend is pretty significant, just given all the leasing that's been done and some of the repositioning. I'm curious where you anticipate your AFFL payout ratio ending the year.

Yeah, I think this year it'll be slightly elevated as most of the capital, RJ, is connected to our sign not commenced balance of about $11 million. So we're looking to spend approximately $40 to $50 million on leasing CapEx, and that 75% of that is tied to our sign not commenced. So while it will be a bit outside this year from an AFO payout ratio, we do expect next year to be in the mid-80s, and then subsequent year in 2025, we expect to be in the mid-70s. So we have very high visibility, given the sign I commenced, sign leases, that the AFO payout ratio will come down, and that was the calculus that went into the dividend raise that we announced last night.

That's helpful. Thanks, Jason. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Hung Thang with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

Yeah. Hey, guys. I think you mentioned three cents of redevelopment drag when you take Hunter Square and Marketplace at Delray offline. You know roughly when in the year that would happen?

Yeah, it's early in the year. So we've recaptured a few locations at Hunter Square. And we've already recaptured the former grocer, Winn-Dixie, at Delray.

Got it. And I guess out of curiosity, so if I think about the three categories where you make acquisitions, you're wholly owned, you're R2G and you're RGMZ platforms, I guess which one would you expect activity to pick up the fastest?

I think it's too early to say. I mean, I think we've been very patient buyers. We are scouring daily. And, you know, out of the kind of retail ecosystem of these three platforms where they reside, I can't answer which one's going to pick up. I mean, you know, the ball could bounce anywhere. to R2G tomorrow, and that could pick up, but it could bond to RPT, too. So I think the beauty of this is all three are complementary, and all three give us a competitive edge in the marketplace.

Got it.

Thank you. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Floris Van Dijkum with CompassPoint. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks, guys. I guess two questions. Number one, note that your shop occupancy is 86.8%, your least occupancy, that is, and there's 330 basis points of S&O there. But what gives you confidence that you can increase that? And do you have a target for your shop occupancy?

We do. The target long-term, Floris, and good morning, by the way, is 91% to 92%. Given that half our signed not commenced pipeline, so roughly 5 to 6 million, is tied to our small shop space. So we ended the year right around, at an occupied level, 83.5%. We do expect that. to end the year between 86%, 87%, which kind of gives you a clear pathway to get closer to 91%, 92% over the long term.

And then, you know, the $7 million that's in leases, you know, I think it's like 30%, 35%, 40% is small shop. So add that in. And then there's another several million even of LOIs that we think will be in legal here in the next month at about 50% small shop.

Thanks. And one other thing I noticed, you touched upon this certainly regarding Mary Brickle saying that it was 83% leased. But if I look at your overall Miami exposure, it's 83% leased as well. What's driving, which I think is the lowest in your overall portfolio and for any of the markets. Could you maybe, you know, Go through what's going on in Miami in particular, because I would imagine Mary Brickle is a big part of that, but maybe talk a little bit about where you see the upside there.

So Brickle is certainly 83%. Delray, we've been buying out tenants to effectuate our redevelopment with two iconic anchor tenants. a new small shop space, and potentially even some resi, which a partner would do. Or maybe that's a contribution like we did in Jacksonville where we contributed our land and became a 50% owner of 375 units. We're going through entitlements on that. But the large driver on that is Delray.

And then in terms of Austin, I noticed, I mean, it's only one asset, but I noticed you had sub 90% lease occupancy. I know that you were pretty positive when you made that acquisition. I think it was a year and a half ago or something like that. Maybe if you can talk a little bit about what's going on in Austin as well.

Yes, 2019 we made that acquisition, five and a half cap. We've expanded it quite nicely. NOI has moved 30%, 40%. We've taken back a couple tenants, have 2X'd their rents, and so that's where you see some of the 89%, which would be 98% here at least in the next couple quarters.

Thanks, Brent. Yep, thank you.

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question. Yes, hi.

Is at-home part of your bad debt forecast?

It is not. We don't assume any disruption there, and we only have two at-homes, Linda.

Okay. And then just on the earlier comment, why would the bye-bye babies take 12 to 18 months to backfill versus the bed-bath taking less time?

Well, I think, I mean, a couple things. I think every site's different. And so the bye-bye babies have different components of complexities where those specific centers where one might be combining spaces another one might be chopping up spaces so it's not you know some of them are not all as is as opposed to you know bed bath are really taking up you know the deals we cut are are taking the space as is So those nuances, Linda, I think that, you know, around the edges a few months more than the bed-bath deals.

Got it. And then just on the earlier comment that it's important to create tension in the market to get, you know, multiple parties interested in a space, is your view that leasing CapEx or TIs goes down this year?

Certainly, you know, on selective deals of, you know, you tell them previous box deals where we have three or four people vying for a space for those deals yes it would go down um you know where there's centers where we are combining spaces you know that could be up but this is all about getting that tension driving rents and driving capex down and then just the last one just on the bed bath and beyond boxes um is your view that

More of those go to single tenants or the space gets divided up?

Single tenants. Yeah, the four we have recaptured, every single one is going to a single tenant.

Got it. Thank you.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Craig Schmidt with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, good morning. This is Lizzie Duyken on for Craig. I kind of wanted to go back to the questions around small shops, and I totally understand the outlook and the target for 86%, 87%, and then being online for 91%, 92% long term. I was just hoping to get additional color around the decline in both the lease and occupied rates in the fourth quarter. Just seeing if there's specific markets or tenants that drove this, whereas most of your peers saw a gain in this. Thank you.

Yeah. So we had in Lake Hills and Austin, we had a 10,000 square foot tenant that we proactively moved out and doubled the rent. So that's really what the mover was for this quarter.

Yeah, you've got to remember the small denominator we have with the small shop too, Lizzie. So when you have a deal like that, of size of 9,000 to 10,000 square feet, it's going to move the number.

It's tough to focus on quarter to quarter.

Got it. Thanks. And on your net debt to EBITDA, 6.9 times, you know, that did tick down a bit from last quarter. Just wondering what the priorities are this year in terms of, you know, seeing this trend in line with your expectations, given that, you know, you have no debt maturities until 25. You fixed the silver component on all outstanding term loan debt. So really, you know, what are the priorities this year?

Sure.

Yeah, no, Ben's done a wonderful job on the balance sheet, clearing out the maturities for the next couple of years so we can, Fully focused on growth in EBITDA, which is all tied to Sinai Commenced. as we alluded to in our prepared remarks and a few questions today. So short answer is get net debt to EBITDA down. We want to get within our range of 5.5 and 6.5 times. And, you know, based on our projections at the midpoint of our range, we're going to get pretty close to that top end of the range around 6.5 times. And then from there, we do believe in 24 and 25, we'll be well within our range at the midpoint of 6.0.

and focus for the company and we will get it down right and just a quick one on Kroger Albertson yes if there's any update or change in thoughts around this you know given the latest update on expected store closings like what if you can remind us what your we have zero at overlap

at all, so it's really no point for RPT, thankfully.

Okay, got it, thanks.

Yep, thank you.

It appears that there are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Brian Harper for closing comments.

Thank you, operator. We relentlessly pursued excellence in 2022 and are ready to do the same in 2023. Although the current retail environment presents some near-term uncertainties, we enter the new year on very solid footing. Leasing momentum remains robust, our balance sheet and liquidity are in great shape, and our investment platforms give us competitive advantages with regard to potential acquisition opportunities. It's times like these when we believe the significant improvements we've made to our portfolio over the past several years will prove themselves out as we continue to build more durable cash flows and we expect to deliver very solid results. We look forward to seeing many of you at upcoming conferences and hope you all have a great day.

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation.

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