Revolve Group, Inc.

Q2 2021 Earnings Conference Call

8/4/2021

spk14: we will also reference certain non-GAAP financial information, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, and free cash flow. We use non-GAAP measures in some of our financial discussions as we believe they provide valuable insights on our operational performance and underlying operating results. The presentation of this non-GAAP financial information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for or superior to the financial information prepared and presented in accordance with GAAP, and our non-GAAP measures may be different from non-GAAP measures used by other companies. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to GAAP measures, as well as the definitions of each measure, their limitations, and our rationale for using them can be found in this afternoon's press release and in our SEC filings. Joining me on the call today are our co-founders and co-CEOs, Mike Karanikoulis and Michael Mente, as well as Jesse Timmermans, our CFO. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for your questions. With that, I'll turn it over to Mike.
spk13: Good afternoon, everybody. We're excited to update you today on the momentum in our business that has been building since the last time we spoke. There are three key takeaways that I want everyone to walk away with today. First, we delivered record top and bottom line results in the second quarter with accelerating top line growth compared to 2019. The very strong revenue growth trajectory discussed in our Q1 investor call last quarter improved in May and June and has continued strong through July. We also meaningfully outpaced the record profitability we had delivered in the second quarter of 2020 at a time when Revolve uniquely reported very profitable results during the depths of COVID. in fact our net income in earnings per share more than doubled year over year on top of record q2 performance from a year ago second a powerful driver of our exceptional top line growth in q2 was the further acceleration of growth within our forward segment which grew more than 120 percent on a two-year growth basis versus the second quarter of 2019. a clear and measurable catalyst at forward was the launch of our forward loyalty program early in the second quarter that is fully integrated with Revolve. The amount of Forward customers coming directly from our existing Revolve customer base accelerated almost overnight after we launched the Forward Loyalty Program, contributing strongly to our Forward segment growth in the second quarter. Michael will talk more about our cross-marketing efforts between the Revolve and Forward segments, where the percentage of Revolve active customers who also shop on Forward is less than 5%. Third, as the world has started to reopen, we see our core customer coming back to us in a powerful way. In the second quarter, we generated record growth in new customers and unprecedented numbers of reactivated customers who hadn't purchased from us in several quarters while social events were on pause. As a result, we delivered our strongest quarterly sequential growth in active customers in nearly two years. With that as an introduction, I'll provide an overview of our second quarter results and recent developments. The strong growth in new customers, the return of our existing customers, and our ability to engage with her through our marketing and merchandising resulted in record net sales of $229 million in the second quarter, an increase of 60% year-over-year, and 41% on a two-year growth basis compared to the second quarter of 2019. This is 11 points higher than the 30% two-year growth we reported in the first quarter of 2021. Our profitability and cash flow in the second quarter were also outstanding. Net income was a record $32 million, or $0.42 per diluted share, up more than 100% on a year-over-year basis versus our prior record Q2 results from a year ago. On a trailing 12-month basis, we have now generated more than $100 million in adjusted EBITDA during some really challenging times over the past four quarters. That's higher than the combined adjusted EBITDA we generated in the four years leading up to our IPO in 2019. These results demonstrate how we have leveraged our scalable technology and operating platforms to drive higher margins over time. And the profitability is converting to substantial cash flow. For the first six months of 2021, we generated $65 million in free cash flow. This significantly strengthened our balance sheet and positions us to invest in future growth opportunities. Turning to our people and operations, with the very strong growth in net sales in the second quarter, we have shifted into aggressive hiring mode. We are bringing on talent not only to support consumer demand and exciting growth opportunities, but also to ensure we continue to serve our customer incredibly well. I would like to acknowledge and express my sincere thanks to our customer-facing teams in areas such as fulfillment and customer service, for your dedication and perseverance in handling such a strong uptick in customer orders in recent months while we scaled up the teams to add capacity. From a financial standpoint, it is gratifying to see evidence of scale efficiencies come through on the income statement, resulting from the higher demand. For instance, we delivered leverage on fulfillment costs as a result of automation efficiencies as well as our increased scale, and on general and administrative expense, where the costs are more fixed in nature and are spread out across a much larger base of revenue. These operational efficiencies were achieved despite an increasing return rate year over year and were key contributors to our record profitability in the second quarter. We also continued to manage our inventory very well. This is best illustrated by our gross margin expansion, heated by a record mix of net sales at full price and shallower markdowns in the second quarter. our clean inventory position at quarter end with low markdown levels further illustrates the competitive advantages of our data-driven merchandising that helps us to quickly adjust our assortment to align with the fast-moving shifts in consumer preference we increased our activity on the marketing front this quarter and we are planning to significantly increase our activity in the coming quarters we will be investing more than ever in what we believe are some truly exciting initiatives to be unveiled in the upcoming weeks We believe this is the right time to invest and that these investments will help us to further capitalize on our current business momentum, drive incremental consumer awareness and customer activity, and further elevate the brand for the next phase of growth. Shifting gears, our strong results have not come without challenge, and there remains uncertainty in the macro environment. We are closely monitoring the recent rise in COVID cases around the world and the varying levels of restrictions that are being reinstated, including here in Los Angeles recently. This serves as a reminder that we are not out of the woods yet. Relatedly, the industry-wide supply chain challenges had a progressively larger, albeit manageable impact in the last few months. This came through in a decrease in the percentage of on-time deliveries from our suppliers and in an increase in our inbound shipping rates. And finally, The potential challenges presented by the recent Apple iOS changes that I mentioned last quarter started to become evident late in the quarter, so it's an area we'll continue to focus on with our advertising partners. These headwinds are not unique to us and affect all companies. We believe Revolve is well-positioned to continue to effectively navigate through the many challenges presented in this very dynamic environment. I'll wrap up with a discussion of regional performance. I'm excited by the strong growth in the U.S. market, which increased 59% year over year in the second quarter and continues to be strong months after the most recent government stimulus payments. Meanwhile, our international business continues to perform very well and represents an exciting opportunity for future growth. International net sales grew 63% in the second quarter of 2021 relative to the prior year, driven by strength in all major regions in illustrating how well our brand is translating across cultures and geographies. Drilling into some specifics, our Q2 results illustrate how our international investments can drive growth and customer satisfaction. For instance, Canada was again a standout contributor for the Revolve segment after our recent launch of all-inclusive pricing that further raised the bar on our Canadian customer experience. Building on this success, in June we introduced all-inclusive pricing on our Ford segment for Canadian customers. It's early, yet the improved service offering has driven a powerful improvement in the growth trajectory at Ford off of a small base. Next up, we plan to launch all-inclusive pricing on Ford in the UK, another of our largest international markets, where we see a meaningful opportunity to expand our luxury offering. Before I turn it over to Michael, I will just reiterate that while there is still some uncertainty out there, our results demonstrate that we are continuing to navigate the challenges very effectively. Moving forward, we are focused on actively investing in our growth opportunity, and we are excited for the path that lies ahead.
spk09: Thanks, Mike. We are more excited than ever about the future of the Walls and Solar Brands and our ability to continue to capture consumer mindshare and wallet share over the long term. Our ability to react to the extreme shifts in demand and consumer preferences over the past 18 months has shown how scalable our platform is and how agile we can be. Last year, when travel and social activities were halted overnight, we were able to react very quickly with merchandise and marketing that connected with our new stay-at-home lifestyle. Our team and systems enabled us to manage through a very turbulent time, staying connected with our customer and delivering record profitability and cash flow in 2020. More recently, we were able to get ahead of the significant increase in demand and a shift in consumer preference as economies opened up. As our customers started traveling and socializing in person again, we quickly shifted our product mix and reactivated our powerful in-person brand marketing strategy. Outfits are going out on the town, and special events are once again among the styles in highest demand. Dresses and skirts return to outstanding year-over-year growth in the second quarter, even while we continue to drive growth in newer categories. As Mike mentioned, our loyal customers are coming back to us for these core offerings to look their best as they get out again. Our ability to get ahead of the increased demand for going out categories and have the right product for our customer at the right time was a key driver of the Revolve segment's acceleration in net sales in the second quarter of 2021. Combined with our successful management of inventory, we achieved a record percentage of net sales at full price in the second quarter. The strength of our operational execution, inventory management, and merchandise selection were leveraged throughout the business and were very evident in the success of Forward, our luxury segment that delivered Q2 results that were nothing short of incredible. While momentum has been building at Forward for some time, the second quarter was a breakout moment. Net sales increased 151% year over year and increased 122% on a two-year growth basis compared to the second quarter of 2019. Ford also delivered record gross margins in the second quarter. The strong results underscore Ford's differentiated position in the market as a preferred destination for the next-generation consumer seeking curated luxury offerings. As another signal of our momentum, next week we are excited to launch yet another coveted luxury brand on the Ford site, the women's collection firm Tom Ford. Even more compelling is the power of the combined Revolve and Ford brands. From a customer and assortment perspective, the two brands are both synergistic and complementary. Revolve has historically been focused on the discovery of trend-driven ready-to-wear styles, where forward has been more heavily weighed towards the statement pieces in a wardrobe, shoes and handbags, categories that we know the Revolve customer loves and spends on. We have only recently started to invest to fully leverage our broader platform and custom rates to cross-market the Revolve and Forward offerings to maximize our long-term opportunity. Recall that our last quarter's investor call, we had just introduced our forward loyalty program that is fully integrated with our Revolve loyalty program. So, for the first time ever, we are now directly rewarding and incentivizing customers to cross-shop on Revolve and Forward. The results have far exceeded our expectations in the early going. We can see in the numbers that the launch of the Forward Loyalty Program was a meaningful contributor to the forward segment growth in the second quarter. After launching the Forward Loyalty Program, we saw a significant increase in the percentage of Laval's loyalty shoppers who cross-shopped forward. Encouragingly, this rate of overlap continued to increase throughout the second quarter. We estimate that the increase versus baseline levels alone generated more than 10% of forward net sales in the U.S. in the second quarter. and contributed more than 30 points to our year-over-year growth for the segment's U.S. results. More importantly, we believe we are just getting started. The percentage of Revolve Back to Customers who also shop on Ford remains below 5%, despite the highly complimentary merchandise I described. And we have yet to introduce any loyalty programs outside of the U.S., which is an exciting future opportunity. We see the global e-commerce market for luxury as offering significant growth potential, and we are excited to continue our investment and forward to capture this opportunity. We are also increasing the investment in our powerful brand marketing initiatives. The brand marketing team has been agile and responsive in this very dynamic environment, delivering the right inspiration to our customers at the right time. This increased level of activity and the aspirational content reflective of the current lifestyle, further supported by the appropriate merchandising mix with a key driver in the record new customer additions and the reactivation of our strong existing customer base that lapsed during the depths of the COVID pandemic last year. When it became clear that our customers were ready to travel again, we captured their attention by hosting exciting events in aspirational locations such as Bermuda, Tulum, and the Amalfi Coast. These events stimulated her desire for vacation items through our impactful social media content, contributing to the high level of customer engagement with our online shop for vacation items in Q2. Continuing the momentum of the increased level of investment in the second quarter to successfully capture consumer demand, we are aggressively gearing up for a much larger marketing playbook in the third quarter that will be headlined by some major brand marketing investments. I'm very excited about what's in store for us in the coming weeks with events and campaigns that will be unlike anything we have ever done. So stay tuned. I'll wrap up with an update on Own Brands, another contributor to our strong results for the quarter. Recall that we are now a few quarters into our reinvestment in Own Brands after a reset in early 2020 following the onset of COVID-19. The early results of our rebuild efforts are very encouraging. Strong consumer demand for our own brand styles led to a high percentage of sales at full price and exceptional gross margins for our own brands in the second quarter. Also exciting is that core style-based metrics within own brands were near record levels in the second quarter. If we continue to execute well and deliver on these core metrics as we scale up the number of styles we offer, the own brand business has the potential to deliver significant upside to our consolidated gross margin over the long term, especially given the recent strengths on our overall gross margin profile on a much lower mix of their own brands when compared to historical periods. In addition to the strong own brand metrics and margin profile, we are very excited about the continued expansion of our own brand capabilities and assortment. In the very near term, we plan to unveil an exciting collection that brings us into an entirely new zone for our offerings. We will continue to invest in our own brands throughout 2021 and beyond to maximize our long-term opportunity for these exclusive brands that remain core to our strategy. All told, the recent momentum across the business has been incredible. With our position in the market as a trusted premium lifestyle brand and our deep connection with today's consumer, combined with our strong team centered on data-driven decision-making, we have been able to deliver strong results during even the most challenging times. We are primed and ready to drive the next phase of growth. I'll turn it over to Jesse for a review of the financials.
spk15: Thanks, Michael, and hello, everyone. We are very pleased with our results for the second quarter and first half of the year. We believe we are well positioned to capitalize on this reopening opportunity, but more importantly, for continued strong growth over the long term. With that, I'll start by recapping the second quarter. Net sales were $229 million, a year-over-year increase of 60%, and reflected two-year growth rates of 41% compared to the second quarter of 2019. This two-year growth rate is 11 points higher than the 30% two-year growth rate that we reported for the first quarter of 2021. By territory, both the U.S. and international markets contributed to the strong top-line results with domestic and international net sales growth of 59% and 63% year-over-year, respectively. By segment, evolved segment net sales increased 49% and forward segment net sales increased by an incredible 151% year-over-year in the second quarter. A highlight of Q2 was accelerating growth in active customers, which turned positive year-on-year, increasing to 1,554,000. This is a 5% increase from just the first quarter of 2021. Our customers placed 1.8 million orders in the quarter, an increase of 52% year-over-year, the highest growth rate in more than five years. Importantly, the strong increase in orders was driven by a quarterly record number of new customers and equally exciting, the reactivation of tens of thousands of customers who had been inactive throughout 2020 during the depths of COVID-19. Average order value, or AOV, was $255, an increase of 25% year-over-year and essentially flat with the first quarter. Key drivers of the growth in AOV include a higher mix of net sales at full price and shallower markdowns, a shift in mix back to higher price point merchandise such as dresses, and a higher mix of forward net sales, Lease tailwinds to AOV, which is a gross revenue measure prior to any product returns, were partially offset by a decrease in average units per order year over year. Moving to gross profit. Consolidated gross margin was 55.6%, an increase of 517 basis points year over year. The strong margin expansion reflects healthy inventory and consumer demand dynamics across both of our segments, but led to a record percentage of net sales at full price in the second quarter, and a significant decrease in the depth of markdowns. These positive contributors to growth margin were partially offset by a decrease in the mix of owned brands as a percentage of revolved segment net sales, consistent with the outlook we shared on recent investor conference calls. Moving on to operating expenses. Consistent with our prior commentary, marketing expense as a percentage of net sales increased to above our historical trend line in the second quarter as we began to invest in the exciting reopening opportunities. We intend to even more aggressively ramp our marketing investment for the balance of the year for both Revolve and Forward, capitalize on this opportune moment in time for our brand. Selling and distribution as a percentage of net sales increased year-over-year and on a sequential basis, consistent with our prior commentary to expect deleverage with a normalizing product mix, leading to a year-over-year increase in return rate in the second quarter of 2021. The other two line items, fulfillment and GMA expense, leveraged year-over-year, resulting from automation efficiencies in our fulfillment center, as well as capacity utilization and scale efficiencies resulting from our 60% growth in net sales during the quarter. The strong top-line results, gross margin expansion, and our operating discipline resulted in record net income, $32 million, or 42 cents per diluted share for the quarter, more than doubling the 20 cents of diluted EPS in the prior year. Adjusting for a lower-than-expected tax rate in 2021, our EPS would have increased 65% year-over-year. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $35 million, a record high, and a year-over-year increase of 70%. Adjusted EBITDA margin extended to 15.5% from 14.6% a year ago, an increase of 86 basis points. Moving to the balance sheet and cash flow statements. During the second quarter, we continued to invest in inventory to position our assortment to support very strong consumer demand. As a result, inventory increased by $18 million during the quarter to $119 million. Our average inventory balance for the second quarter of 2021 increased 32% year-over-year, well below the 60% year-over-year increase in net sales, illustrating our increased inventory efficiency. Even with the investment in inventory, we generated $33 million in free cash flow in the second quarter and $65 million for the first six months of 2021, an increase of 8% year-over-year for the six-month period, despite a very strong comparison in the prior year. Cash and cash equivalents net of borrowings at June 30th were $220 million, an increase of $93 million, or 73%, from $127 million as of June 30th 2020, and our balance sheet remains debt-free. Now looking ahead, we remain very cautious as there is still a level of uncertainty out there. With the recent increase in positive COVID cases, varying levels of restrictions and supply chain issues, we are not yet fully through the challenges presented by COVID-19. And while we have successfully managed through similar challenges in the past, we are not immune to these macro headwinds. That said, with the very strong trends that began in March and April further accelerating in the second quarter, leading to 41% year-over-year sales growth in the first half of 2021, our net sales growth for the full year 2021 will very likely land well north of our historical target range of 20% growth. Looking beyond 2021, we remain confident that we can continue to deliver net sales growth in excess of our long-term growth target of 20%, just as we were prior to the onset of COVID-19. Now, let me update you on some recent trends in the business since the second quarter ended, and provide some direction on our cost structure for the balance of the year to help in your modeling of the business for 2021. Starting from the top, the strong top line trends we experienced throughout the second quarter continued through to the month of July, with growth of more than 40% on both the year-over-year and two-year basis compared to July of 2019. We are very excited about the recent top-line trends, but again, we need to acknowledge the uncertain environment related to COVID-19 variants potentially resulting in increased restrictions like we have recently experienced in Los Angeles, supply chain challenges, and other potential headwinds. Shifting to gross margin, we are extremely pleased with our gross margin performance, driven by the record mix of net sales at full price in the second quarter. As we rebuild our inventory, however, we continue to expect the full price mix to begin to move closer to historical norms over time. Nonetheless, given the strong first half results, we now expect gross margin to come in around 54% for the full year of 2021, which is at the high end of the prior gross margin outlook of 53.5% to 54% provided last quarter. This implies a gross margin expansion of 140 basis points versus 2020 and expansion of 40 basis points versus 2019, despite own brand penetration being significantly lower today than it was in 2019. This speaks to the longer-term opportunity for gross margin as the own brand mix returns to year-over-year growth in 2022 and beyond. Fulfillment. With the very efficient fulfillment performance in the second quarter, we now expect fulfillment costs to be approximately 2.5% of net sales for the full year, which is 40 basis points lower than our previous outlook and 70 basis points lower than fulfillment representing 3.2% of net sales in 2019. Really great work by the team in continuing to deliver efficiencies in this area. For the full year of 2021, we now expect selling and distribution costs to be slightly higher than the 14.6% of net sales we achieved for the full year of 2019. This implies a sequential increase in the third quarter driven by increased return rates year over year as our product mix normalizes and continued pressure on shipping costs. Moving on to marketing. With our customer coming back stronger than ever to refresh our wardrobe, we are excited to step up our investment in marketing to include new initiatives that we believe offer compelling returns over the long term. We will significantly increase our marketing investment in the second half of the year, and as a result, we continue to expect marketing expense as a percentage of net sales for the full year 2021 to be at least 15.8% of net sales, a full point higher than we reported for the full year in 2019. To be clear, With marketing for the first half of the year at 15% of net sales, in order to achieve the full-year target of at least 15.8% of net sales, we should expect a significant increase in the level of marketing investment during the second half of the year, and in particular, the third quarter. During the third quarter, we expect to deliver on the very exciting brand-building activities Mike and Michael mentioned, which we expect will increase our marketing as a percentage of net sales to more than 18% in Q3. before coming back down to the 15% level in the fourth quarter. The bulk of this investment will be in brand marketing activities, and to have some level of short-term benefit will be our most impactful and important long-term building of the brand. General and administrative. In 2021, we are reinvesting in our own brand platform and other functions to support our next phase of growth and expansion. The quarterly run rate for general and administrative costs has increased by $3.5 million in the first half of 2021, measured by comparing GMA expense in the fourth quarter of 2020 to GMA expense in the second quarter of 2021. We expect a similar sequential growth trajectory in the second half of this year as we continue to add talent and support our growth. Lastly, let me touch on our tax rate. Our effective tax rate in the second quarter of 2021 reflects tax benefits realized as a result of the exercise of non-qualified stock options. Absent such tax benefits in future quarters, we expect our effective tax rate to be around 24% to 26%. To recap, we are incredibly excited about our recent results, delivering yet another quarter of record net sales, record net income, and exceptional free cash flow. And the strong growth is coming from all dimensions of the business, including the U.S. and international markets, revolve and forward. While mindful of continuing uncertainties and potential headwinds in the current environment, we are focused on the long term and investing in the business to capitalize on the incredible growth opportunity ahead. Now we'll open it up for your questions.
spk08: As a reminder, to ask a question over the phone line, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Again, that is the star one. To withdraw your question, press the pound or the hash key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Ollie Chen from Cowen. Your line is open.
spk04: Hi, thank you. The new customer growth has been very impressive. What are your thoughts on retaining the new customers and what the new customers are looking for relative to existing, if there's any distinctions? Also, you had very attractive and shallow markdowns. Did you have enough inventory, and how should we model inventory versus sales? And just finally, Ford continues to show great momentum. I would love for you to brief us on where you are on the inventory journey at Ford and how you're thinking about depth versus breadth, as well as what experiential means at Ford. Thank you.
spk13: Sure. Thanks, Oliver. Mike Karanakoulis here. Yeah, we feel great about the trends across the business, particularly on the new customer side, seeing really strong acceleration there, continuing through Q3. And, you know, in terms of the customer profile, you know, we're seeing great things so far in terms of those customers and their propensity to continue to purchase. I think over the past year we've expanded the the appeal of our brand with new categories we've brought in. But also what's really exciting to us is as the core of what we've always been known for has come back in a big way, we see customers gravitating towards those going out categories in a much bigger way this quarter than they did the previous quarter, really accelerating through the quarter and through early Q2. And traditionally, some of our most sticky new customers have been those customers that have come to us for those key brand elements. So we feel really great about the things that we're seeing now. From an overall inventory perspective in terms of what we saw during the quarter, There was likely some level of untapped demand due to our inventory position. We feel like we positioned ourselves really well compared to the broader set, investing heavily in the going out categories and kind of return to the pre-COVID lifestyle. But even then, we struggled to keep up at times with the demand. So we'll continue to make improvements there. And again, we feel better than ever about our position as we enter Q3 here. And we think there's more to build upon there. And then the final question with regards to forward, yeah, tremendous momentum on the forward side of the business, you know, just all around. The core forward business itself we think is really coming into its own in terms of its position in the marketplace and its renown in the marketplace, its inventory offering. And then you combine that with really successful, you know, kind of cross-exposure efforts on Revolve that are still in the early innings. It's less than 5% overlap yet. that those increases in overlap from the increased exposure we gave forward drove around 30 points of uh more than 30 points of growth for the quarter so um we feel great there obviously to support that growth we have to continue to invest in inventory we're continuing to do that in a big way and we feel great about the trajectory and then finally with regards to the forge We kind of alluded to it in the earlier comments, and it's too early to share anything official, but we have some really strong marketing components coming up on the Ford side that we're really excited about, and we hope to continue to drive results there.
spk08: Your next question comes from the line of Mark Palschweger from Bayard.
spk02: Great. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just a quick follow-up on forward. Just given all the momentum there, any quantification you can provide on how you're thinking about the magnitude of that revenue opportunity over the next couple of years? I guess, where do you think it can get in terms of the mix of the business medium to longer term? And then separately, I just wanted to ask if you could give us a little bit more clarity on the sourcing side. It sounds like you're managing through it, and I think that's embedded in the selling and distribution guidance in the back half perhaps, but just any more clarity on what you're expecting from a product flow perspective and how that might impact top line. Thank you.
spk13: Definitely.
spk02: Thank you.
spk13: So in regards to Ford, we're not guiding to any specific numbers in terms of share of the business, but obviously with the momentum it has, we think there's the potential for substantially greater share. And as you know, the luxury market and the online luxury market is absolutely huge. And Ford is still a relatively small player in the market, but with really more momentum than at least this quarter than last. you know, most of the others, if not all of the others out there, you know, from a trajectory standpoint. So, it has a lot of potential, and then you've got the really low overlap on Revolve that we think we can continue to grow over time. So, we're really excited about the future there. With regards to Revolve inventory, yeah, so supply chains, you know, it's difficult across the board, I think, for every company. I feel great about how we've managed it. Certainly, we're seeing more delays than we have historically in the supply chain. And unfortunately, those delays have continued to increase over time as Q2 progressed and as Q3 progressed. But I also feel like the team and the systems have reacted really well. And despite those delays, we've been improving our inventory position and we're continuing to position it better and better as the weeks and months pass.
spk02: Thank you.
spk08: Your next question comes from the line of Aaron Murphy from Piper Sandler. Your line is open.
spk10: Great. Thanks. Good afternoon. Two questions for me as well. First, you did a lot more in-person events this quarter. Could you share a little bit more about what that drove to the brand? And then with the Delta variant, does that change how you're thinking, or have you had to make any adjustments to in-person events as you look into this fall? season. And then just one other follow-up on Forward. If you look at your influencer network, what percent of your influencers feature both Revolve and Forward? I think you said it was only a 5% of your customer overlap, but would love to hear more how you're kind of positioning it with your influencer community. Thank you.
spk09: Hi. Nice to chat with you guys. I guess the first question was in-person events, and I think for us it was really important to have those in-person events to really refresh and kind of remind the customers that it's time to go out and that's revolve time. A lot of people are on vacation as we speak, and I think that prep up for vacation is very much a revolve shopping experience. I think people are going out, people are hanging out with their friends again and whatnot. Having those events was really to reinforce our core brand message, and it really does show the type of merchandise that we have been selling. It's been a dramatic shift from only a few months ago from what we were selling then to what we're selling now. So those events were very, very important. we are definitely definitely following delta uh very closely i think we've it's been on our mind for you know you know well over a month at this point maybe you know six weeks or so as we're planning it to q3 you know we've seen uh a lot of things going on with you know thankfully we've seen other parts of the world kind of go through delta spikes you know prior to us so we're not in completely uncharted territory but we have contingency plans for future events with regard, you know, every event basically has to have a contingency plan in terms of are we wide open and, you know, loose and comfortable? Are there, you know, various tiers of kind of restrictions and safety measures that we have to have in place? But we feel good with what we have had. I think that, you know, our current assumption is that things could get worse, but it will not be as restrictive as, you know, times past. But, of course, these things change very, very quickly. So, And when it comes to forward, this is something that we're in the early stages, you know, working with influencers. I think the forward kind of offering and what forward is known for is quite different than Revolve. So we really have to build a playbook, you know, from a fresh perspective. Some of the things that we do for the Revolve playbook are directly applicable. You know, forward also has things that we can't do for the Revolve side. There's a huge amount of overlap, and we'll see over time how we can completely integrate. But we're very, very early, extremely happy with the very successful transitioning of the Revolve customer base over to Forward, and we will look to bear that with our marketing activities as we've been given the green light from our customers that they want more.
spk08: Your next question comes from the line of Michael Benetti from Credit Suisse. Your line is open. for caller Michael Bonetti from Credit Suisse. Hey, guys.
spk16: Sorry, I was on mute there. Can you hear me okay? Yep. Yep. Hey, guys. How are you? So I just wanted to – thanks for all the help with the questions here. So given the comments you just made on Delta related to the events – What are you seeing in the data right now on the consumer side of the orders or the web hits in the areas where you've seen the flare-ups lately? Any changes to behavior, traffic conversion, or even the composition of the categories just throwing in the basket? And then maybe for Jesse, the Revolve brand, I think the gross margin on the Revolve brand is still high. down on a two-year basis, and I know that there's big changes going by in the mix relative to where we were two years ago, and you said own brands will start to ramp here. Maybe you can help us bridge that to two years ago, and then maybe the puts and takes we should think about as we model forward the Revolve brand over the next two quarters.
spk15: Yeah, thanks, Michael. This is Jesse. So I think first in terms of Delta and kind of regional state performance traffic and convergence, You know, we put up some record traffic numbers, and that continued into a strong July. Conversion was also really good and improved significantly year over year. So I think, you know, we're very, you know, optimistic. We had a great quarter both in terms of traffic and conversion. That said, there were some pockets of weakness throughout the quarter in those areas that had delta spikes, but it was very volatile. So we saw a short – kind of a short lapse in Australia in certain regions. We saw – you know, for example, Florida and Texas take a little dip but then come back. So, you know, it starts to get really volatile and you look, you know, kind of state by state, region by region. But I think overall we're seeing the customer come back for those really core categories like dresses. And that continued, again, through to the month of July when Delta really first kind of became part of the conversation. So, yeah. I think nothing significant to call out there yet. And then maybe the other point there is that those COVID categories that really checked last year, like beauty and active, continued to grow through the second quarter and into July. So, again, back to that kind of product and assortment diversification, we feel really good going forward. And then the second question on growth margin, it was a tick below that Q2 peak of 2019, I think. Just keeping in mind that 2Q of 2019 was a record quarter for full price at the time. We had Revolve Festival. Dresses were selling at an all-time high. Own Brands was in the mid-30% mix of the Revolve segment, so that added a lot to the gross margin profile. And you compare that to this year, we're at a new record for full price, but Own Brands is at a significantly lower mix of that Revolve segment. So I think showing the longer-term opportunity that we have in gross margin as we continue to build up that own brand platform.
spk16: Great. Thanks a lot for the help, Jess.
spk08: Your next question comes from the line of Edward Yeruma from KeyBank Capital Markets. Your line is open.
spk07: Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess first you kind of disclosed that you were starting to see kind of the expected difficulties with the iOS transition. I guess any kind of color you can drive into that and, you know, has it driven a significant fall off in performance from those devices? And then I think you guys also indicated that units were down. Just kind of curious what underpinned that given the overall strength of the business. And then finally, we've noticed that there's a higher number of preorder on the site. I guess kind of how should we frame that in context of the overall assortment, and is there any risk to breakage on preorders? Thank you.
spk13: Sure. So I'll take the first part of that question and then pass it off to Jesse. So with regards to iOS advertising, you know, we started to see an impact towards the end of the quarter. We didn't really see the impact initially when the transition first happened. There was a very definite impact. I think the good news is the overall strength of the business more than offset that impact. And also we saw within the iOS channel, the impact was very big in, call it, sub-segments of the channel that are more kind of targeting dependent. And then we actually saw the losses there offset by some of the areas that relied a little bit less on the unique targeting. So I think it's still an evolving situation, and we'll have to see how it plays out over the long run. I think the net is that it had some impact, likely less I mean, it was a whole kind of a wash or maybe slightly positive, but I think there's some risk that it trends a little bit negative over time. But I think we're happy with what we've seen, that it wasn't necessarily as big an overall impact as we were thinking perhaps it could be.
spk15: Yeah, and then, Ed, you cut out there for a second. Can you repeat that second part of your question? Sure.
spk07: Yeah, I just I was asking you had some commentary about units being down. I was kind of curious what drove that. And then finally, on on the on preorder, it seems like it's increasing in terms of its prominence on the site. Is there a risk to breakage of some of those preorders? Thank you.
spk15: Yeah, okay. Great. And those two are really related. The pre-orders is largely what is causing that decline in the units per order. So if somebody, for example, put two dresses in their basket and they were both available, those two units would go into one order. With the pre-orders, those two units are broken up into separate orders. So you're seeing a a decline in the units per order in the current quarter given the higher level of pre-orders than we've had in the past. So, you know, there is, you know, to some extent some pent-up demand there as the availability comes through and those pre-orders get filled. But to your point, there's also some breakage depending on how long those goods take to get to our facility. And, you know, we had some good receipts late in the quarter, so that really helped. And we continue to invest in inventory, so we expect that to get better. But there is some some risk of breakage, you know, partially offset by that, you know, call it pent-up demand with, you know, units waiting to be received and shipped.
spk08: Your next question comes from the line of Matt Kuranda from Roth Capital. Your line is open.
spk12: Hey, guys, thanks, and appreciate the color on the July results of 40%. I wanted to see if you could maybe disentangle some of the trends you're seeing in July at Revolve versus Forward, and then just any help on sort of AOV's transaction growth. It's sort of driving the net sales growth of 40%. Disentangle those. That would be helpful.
spk15: Yeah, yeah, sure. So for July, you know, as we mentioned, we saw that 40% two-year growth continued from Q2 into July. You know, I think it's a similar theme to what we experienced in Q2 where we saw strength across the board. It was, you know, coming from domestic, from international, from both Revolve and Forward. We saw that dress mix continue to increase as she started going out again. You won't see that in the quarter on a blended basis because it did progressively increase throughout the quarter, so you'll still see dresses meaningfully lower than our historical average. You call it that 30% range, but that ticked up through the quarter and into July. On an order AOV and a unit basis, orders were up 52%, AOV was up 25%, and then that was offset in part by the higher return rate. So we saw return rate go up close to 50% for the quarter, so that offset some of those gross measures that are pushing gross sales up to net out to that plus 60% year-over-year net sales and then the plus 40% two-year net sales. And then again, back to that units per order comment that we just made, the lower units per order are putting some pressure on that AOV, and that's why you didn't see AOV increase sequentially from Q1 to Q2. But we do expect that to continue to increase as the mix shifts to those higher price points. And with the tremendous strength on the forward segment, it carries a significantly higher AOV than Revolve.
spk08: Your next question comes from the line of Kimberly Greenberger from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
spk11: Okay, great. Thank you so much. Michael, I wanted to start with you on own brands. 2020 sounds like it'll be a year of growth for the own brand business. Can you just remind us where do you expect own brands as a percentage of sales to sit this year? And then what are some of the strategies to grow the own brand business that you're planning to tackle next year? Thanks so much.
spk15: Yeah, hey, Kimberly. Sorry, I'll take that second one first and then kick it over to Michael for the longer-term strategy component. You know, we expect to be meaningfully lower as a percentage of the Revolve segment for own brands this year. Again, we started cutting back in the, you know, right when COVID started last year, and that takes some time to flow through. So we expect to return to, you know, year-on-year growth in that mix towards the back end of this year, but you really won't see it come through until 2022. So For 21, expect it to be meaningfully lower than the, I think we're at 27% in 2020. Then I'll kick it over to Michael.
spk09: Yeah, as we ramp up, I think it'll be important to note that styles that we'll be bringing in will be much more diverse, you know, multidimensionally diverse, you know, from a price point perspective, from a category perspective, from a categorization perspective as well as kind of an aesthetic perspective. So I think that diversity will be really, really important for us. Now, when it comes to marketing, I think we're continuing to learn and just continue to get better at the way we're working with influencers with own brands. The collections that we have with influencers are performing extremely well. I think after having, you know, well, I guess two years, a choppy year and a full year with these influencer collections that we launched in the middle of 19, I think we've learned quite a bit. So, we do have some additional kind of influencer type brands coming as well that we think will be, you know, very, very powerful as well. On the macro level, things will be quite similar. On the nuance level, things will be dramatically evolved as we just continue to get better and better at what we're doing.
spk11: Okay, that's great, Culler. Can I just ask Mike a follow-up on the Apple iOS changes? I think you indicated that you just started seeing impacts late in the second quarter. Are you able to discern any impact on your business? It didn't sound like it really affected you in July. you know, just any kind of early learnings from those Apple iOS changes would be great.
spk13: Yeah, definitely. As a whole, it's a relatively minor component, I think, of our overall business picture, but it's not to say it can't and doesn't and won't have some impact. But We've just been seeing really strong strength in general, really improving throughout Q2 and then feel really good about the trend so far in July. But there's a lot of positive momentum in the business, and so even if there's some offsets on the iOS side, I think it's small in the grand scheme of things. The other thing also, the advertising market is very dynamic, and so you can see changes sometimes, and you really need a long period of time to say, you know, for sure what is it related to. You know, we did see, again, in those kind of very targeted advertising sub-segments, a clear enough trend that we can say, yeah, it had a substantial impact there. But then we saw a lot of growth in other areas of iOS advertising at the same time. And then you have the backdrop of the general strength of the business. And it's kind of a wash as far as what you can conclude. I think overall it is a net negative, but I think it's also a manageable one.
spk08: Your next question comes from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson from Bank of America. Your line is open.
spk01: Thank you. Jesse, with the strong results that the cash is starting to build on your balance sheet, can you just talk about priorities on how you plan to use the cash?
spk15: Yeah, sure. Yeah, very pleased with the cash flow generation over the last year and the cash balance that we have now and really strong balance sheets. You know, number one is investing back in the business. We, you know, less than 3% penetrated in this target demographic that we're going after. So still a long road ahead of us on that target. So number one, invest back in the business. And you'll see that in Q3 with the significant marketing investment. You're starting to see that with inventory. You're also seeing it in the G&A with the investment in own brands and the other areas to support the future growth. And then number two behind that, we'll look at, you know, call it opportunistic disciplined M&A. You know, we think there are probably pockets of opportunity out there, but we're going to be patient and careful as we look at things.
spk08: Our next question comes from the line of Bob Durbel from Guggenheim Securities. Your line is open.
spk05: Thank you. Good afternoon. A couple questions for me. I think the first one is, in terms of the, I mean, I guess the normalization on return rates, can you give us any numbers around, you know, sort of where you are today or in your expectations in the back half of the year, you know, on the resumption of more normalized returns? And then the second question is, can you give us a little more color, I don't know, country by country, but on the international performance as well would be helpful, what you're seeing there, and even especially in July as well. Thanks.
spk15: Yeah, sure. I'll take maybe the return rate one and then kick it over to Mike for international. So return rate has picked up as we've seen the mix shift back towards those higher AOV, higher return rate categories like dresses and tops and the apparel for going out. To put it in perspective, pre-COVID back in the peak of kind of going out in 2019, we were running at around a 55% return rate. It went down to 40% this time last year as the mix shifted to beauty and, again, the lower AOV, lower return rate categories. It slowly ticked up to this quarter where we sat just below 50%, so still not at that peak 55% that we were at. And we do expect it to continue to go up slightly as that mix continues to shift. And like I said, we saw dresses continue to perform, you know, especially in the back half of this quarter and then into July. So we should expect the return rate to tick up We're optimistic that we don't get back to that peak 55% as we've broadened the assortment, and she sees us now for more than just that dress and going out, but for beauty, active, lounge, and some of the other categories that really check during COVID.
spk13: Yeah, and with regards to the international regions, so in general, I'll just start by saying across the board in all of our major international regions, we saw pretty robust growth. um you know kind of region by region in terms of highlights uh you know i'd say canada probably the biggest highlight with uh triple digit growth in canada on both the revolve and forward and segments and overall as a whole um you know we saw some nice acceleration in the united kingdom china continues to be strong um In general, really good results. Australia, we had strong results as well, although as Jesse noted, we did see some impact towards the end of the quarter. Particularly on a regional level where Australia was implementing lockdowns, we saw a very clear impact to the trajectory there. But as a whole, we're seeing robust results across the board.
spk15: And then, hey, Bob, if I can add one more on that that ties the return rate and international together. As we've added on the localization of these international regions, we have seen the international return rate go up, but that's a very positive indicator, both in demand, net sales, and customer experience. So as we continue to localize these international regions, which has really driven some phenomenal growth, especially in Canada most recently, we'd expect some impact on the return rate there, but a net positive to the ending net sales indicator.
spk08: Your next question comes from the line, a coming line from BTIG. Your line is open.
spk06: Thank you. Going back to the marketing and the step-up in investment that you're talking about, what's the best way that we should think about the returns that you're seeing on that marketing investment? I think in the prepared remarks you talked about, vacation categories responding to the revolved summer marketing event that you hosted. Is it an immediate return in quarter that we should be thinking about when we step up this market? Or is there a little bit of a lag to it?
spk13: Sure, definitely. The step-up in marketing that we're planning specifically for Q3 relates to brand marketing investments, which we always view as much longer payback time investments. And it's an area that we have gone lighter on in the past 12 to 18 months, really just starting to ramp back up in Q2. So we have some really exciting opportunities we want to leverage, but they are longer-term investments, meaning you're not going to see that immediate impact in Q2, at least from kind of a full ROI perspective. We believe the payback period is much, much longer, but these are the right investments to make. Certainly, it's not like there's no impact either, right? And so, you know, we think in Q2 in particular, those brand marketing events, you know, alongside our inventory selection, we're signaling to our consumer that there are ways to go out and have fun again and live her old lifestyle. It was important to the success of that quarter and will be important to Q3 as well.
spk06: Got it. Thanks so much.
spk08: And we'll take our last question from the line of Susan Anderson from B. Riley. Your line is open.
spk03: Hi, it's Alec Legg on for Susan. Just a question on the beauty category. How big is that compared to your overall business, and what is the customer profile for that category? Is it new customers to revolve, or is it existing customers moving into that category? Any details on that?
spk15: Yeah, beauty, again, going back to the depth of COVID, beauty checked really well. So it went from running at about, you know, call it 1.5%, 2% of the business pre-COVID up to 6% of the business, again, in the depth of COVID last year. It has come back down as a percentage of the business to call it 3% plus or minus this most recent quarter, but still growing. And that's growing on top of triple-digit growth last year. So we think there's a really great long-term opportunity there for the beauty category. And the customers coming there, it's been a really great new customer ad driver. So, you know, customers coming in at that lower AOV, we're seeing them then come back and purchase at higher AOVs over time. It's a great add-on item. So from that perspective, you know, there is some repeat or existing customer activity there as well, but we do see it as a really good customer acquisition tool.
spk08: There are no questions over the phone line at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to the management for their closing remarks.
spk13: Thanks, everyone. I'm really proud of our results and momentum and even more so for continuing to pursue and capture the huge long-term opportunity that lies ahead for us. Thank you all for your continued support through these turbulent and challenging times. And thank you to our team for executing incredibly well to deliver these record results. And we look forward to meeting with investors and reporting our progress in the weeks and months ahead.
spk08: This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
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