Royal Bank Of Canada

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to RBC's conference call for the fourth quarter 2023 financial results. Please be advised that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Asim Imran, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Imran.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Speaking today will be Dave McKay, President and Chief Executive Officer, Nadine Ahn, Chief Financial Officer, and Graham Hepworth, Chief Risk Officer. Also joining us today for your questions, Neil McLaughlin, Group Head, Personal and Commercial Banking, Doug Guzman, Group Head, Wealth Management and Insurance, and Derek Nelner, Group Head, Capital Markets. As noted on slide one, our comments may contain forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially. I would also remind listeners that the bank assesses its performance on a reported and adjusted basis, and it considers both to be useful in assessing underlying business performance. With that, I'll turn it over to Dave.

Thank you, Asim. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Today, we reported fourth quarter earnings of $4.1 billion. We also announced a 3% or 2% increase in our quarterly dividend, continuing our policy of increasing dividends every other quarter. Our revenues were up 4% from last year, reflecting the strength of our diversified business model, including market share gains in both investment banking and global markets, solid volume growth in Canadian banking, and higher fee-based revenue from wealth management. Reported expense growth of 13% year-over-year was impacted by several factors, which Nadine will speak to later. Importantly, core expense growth declined to 5% year-over-year or about 2% sequentially. This is a trend that underscores our heightened focus on expense control and includes higher than normal severance costs. Our results were also impacted by higher PCL uncared loans. We added a further $194 million of PCL on performing loans this quarter in recognition of the evolving macro environment and more challenging credit conditions. Our allowance for credit losses now covers three times the Stage 3 PCL that we incurred over the last 12 months. Looking back at the 2023 fiscal year, RBC delivered earnings of nearly $15 billion in a very challenging operating and macro environment. We met all our medium-term objectives while investing to further strengthen our core businesses. As part of our regular strategic review, we also simplified our business model by exiting our investor services franchise in Europe. We ended the with a strong CT1 ratio of 14.5%, nearly 200 basis points higher than last year. Furthermore, we generated an ROE of 14% this year, or 16% when we consider the capital we are holding ahead of closing the proposed acquisition of HSBC Canada. We remain confident in our ability to continue meeting our medium-term objectives, including delivering a premium ROE of over 16%. Our balance sheet is diversified by both industry and geography, underpinning our all-weather franchise. The strong balance sheet combined with our premium ROE enables RBC to create value for our clients and shareholders through the cycle. This includes growing book value per share by 10% CAGR in the recovery following the global financial crisis from 2012 to 2019, and by a similar rate from 2019 to 2022 during the uncertainty of the pandemic. Before I discuss the strategic initiatives that will drive our next leg of value creation, I will provide my perspective on the macro environment where a slowdown in economic activity is already being observed. The rapid nature, size, and accumulation of interest rate hikes is reigning in elevated inflation. Higher interest rates are having a more immediate impact on the cost of living in Canada relative to the U.S., partly due to the stark difference in the duration of mortgage terms. Consequently, discretionary consumer spending in Canada is down, with October marking the largest monthly decline in six months. Higher interest rates are also cooling housing markets across the country, with sales to new listings ratio falling to 49% in October. Furthermore, we are seeing signs of slowing labor markets, as evidenced by rising unemployment, slowing wage growth, and lower job postings. We're also seeing declines in global trade even before the recent escalation of geopolitical risk. Following recent peaks in September and October, we are seeing declines in both yields and oil prices, further signs of an economic slowdown. Given easing pricing pressures, we believe central banks have reached the end of the tightening cycle and will pivot to rate cuts in 2024, albeit rates are expected to remain higher than pre-pandemic levels. With this context, we expect Canadian mortgage growth will continue to moderate to the low to mid-single digits as immigration-driven demand more than offsets the impact of higher interest rates on the cost of capital. In our commercial portfolio, 80% of the year-over-year growth was driven by our strategic focus on doing more with our best existing clients. We expect relative strength in Canadian commercial lending to continue, particularly in the agriculture, auto, and supply chain sectors. Our growing Canadian deposit franchises should continue to provide a foundation to drive premium loan growth while also providing a latent benefit from the recent trend of rising interest rates. Given market uncertainty, there is a significant amount of cash that can be deployed by your retail and institutional clients when central banks provide further clarity on the path to lower interest rates. This, in turn, should stimulate a broad-based recovery in equity and fixed income markets. Our market-sensitive businesses are positioned to benefit from this change in sentiment. Increased conviction in equity markets would also be conducive to a rebound in M&A deal activity where we maintain a healthy pipeline and strong client engagement. We are confident that our leading wealth and asset management franchises are well-positioned to capture money in motion back towards investment products, resulting from a shift in risk sentiment. Importantly, we remain committed to prudent costs and underwriting discipline in this uncertain environment while continuing to invest in our leading client franchises to drive growth. Our strategic investments in technology and the client experience for the past several years mean we're well-positioned to continue creating value. For the second year in a row, RBC ranked in the top three for artificial intelligence maturity among 50 global financial institutions in the Evident AI Index. While we cannot control the market environment, we have positioned ourselves to succeed. We remain focused on creating diverse, resilient, and high ROE revenue streams while adding to our leading deposit base. I will start with our leading Canadian banking business. We had record new to RBC account acquisition this year, including through our newcomer strategy, an important client acquisition funnel. Our partnership with ICI Bank Canada has created an attractive banking experience for newcomers by tracking 30,000 new clients this year alone. These clients come with new deposits, which provide a stable source of funding. They're also an important factor in clients consolidating their relationship with RBC at a rate that is 50% higher than average. We will continue to strategically invest in our proprietary sales force, innovation, distribution channels, and privileged assets to deliver a sustainable competitive advantage. We also remain focused on the proposed acquisition of HSBC Canada and are well positioned to meet these clients' needs, including through multi-currency accounts and trade finance. We'll continue to enhance the client experience with RBC's market-leading value proposition. Turning to a wealth management business, advisor recruiting remains a key source of growth. Our leading Canadian wealth management business hired 40% more competitive recruits than last year, resulting in a record year for recruited assets. Our U.S. wealth management platform, the sixth largest wealth advisor in the U.S. by assets under administration, recruited 94 advisors this year, driving over $20 billion of expected AUA growth. Our U.S. wealth advisory business has become the destination of choice for top talent in the industry because of our strong culture, entrepreneurial environment, innovation, and competitive products. In the UK, the integration of RBC Brew and Dolphin is progressing well, with milestone objectives being met. This acquisition provides us with deeper scale in what we see as our third home market. Furthermore, we continue to add deposits and lending products to support client needs across our increasingly global wealth management franchise. We recognize Citi National operated well below its full potential this year. as it absorbs higher commercial PCL, continued investments into operational infrastructure, and a sector-wide increase in funding costs. Looking forward, our focus is on enhancing City National's profitability following outsized volume growth over the years, building on the relative stability of deposits and retention of clients and advisors through 2023. Accordingly, this quarter, we enhanced the yield of City National's securities portfolio, recognized impairments on certain assets, and implemented a cost program resulting in higher than normal severance. We've also added the strength of the management team, which will increase the focus on several strategic initiatives, including expense management and enhancing the deposit base. Normalizing for the potential recognition of the FDIC special assessment costs, we anticipate a return to profitability next quarter, a stepping stone towards a return to more normalized levels of net income in 2025. Furthermore, As it relates to our broader U.S. footprint, we are focused on improving the connectivity of our three platforms. And in this regard, we recently enhanced the mandate of Derek Neltner, our group head of capital markets, to include accountability for the integrated strategy and performance of all our businesses operating in the United States. Moving to corporate investment banking, where RBC Capital Markets sits ninth in the global league tables. we continue to focus on shifting revenue streams towards higher ROE advisory and origination activities. We're also building on our investments in people across verticals and geographies to expand our client coverage. In global markets, we're looking to build on recent market share gains. The changes we've made to our organizational structure are increasingly producing results. We're also currently investing in technology to further modernize our infrastructure, including the FX trading arm of our macro business. We're excited about the opportunity to attract client deposits that are pending launch of our U.S. cash management business, given our existing corporate banking client relationships and leading credit ratings. Turning to the insurance segment, which continues to generate high ROE earnings and provide diversification against credit and interest rate risk, we remain focused on sustaining and growing our market leadership in key segments, including increasing and harnessing the power of our receipts. In conclusion, we are well positioned entering into fiscal 2024. Our balance sheet remains strong. We are growing our deposit base by attracting new clients and deepening existing client relationships. We have diversified revenue streams across our segments and geographies. Following a record year of client acquisition, we are focused on welcoming even more clients onto our platforms. We will continue to deliver on our strategic ambitions while staying true to our purpose of helping clients thrive and communities prosper. Our success is built on the strength of our employees and their commitment to serving as trusted advisors for our retail, commercial, and institutional clients. I want to personally thank our 94,000 colleagues and 17 million-plus clients. Nadine, over to you.

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Starting on slide 11, we reported earnings per share of $2.90 this quarter. adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.78 was flat from last year as the benefits of higher rates, solid volume growth, strong market-related revenue, and a lower tax rate were largely offset by higher expenses and increases in PCL from low levels a year ago. I will first highlight the continued strength of our balance sheet before focusing on more detailed drivers of our earnings. Starting with our strong capital ratios on slide 12, Our CT1 ratio improved to 14.5%, up 40 basis points from last quarter, mainly reflecting internal capital generation net of dividends and benefits of share issuances under the drip. This was partly offset by unrealized losses on OCI securities. RWA growth, excluding FX, was largely flat this quarter. Business growth in Canadian banking and capital markets, as well as an unfavorable wholesale credit migration, was offset by lower loans in City National and RWA optimization initiatives driven by improvements in data quality and collateral management. We expect that our CET1 ratio will remain comfortably above 12% following the close of the planned HSBC Canada transaction pending remaining regulatory approvals. We do not expect a material impact from the implementation of IFRS 17 or FRTB next quarter. Furthermore, based on our initial estimates, we do not expect RWA floors to be binding in 2024. We will look to revisit the DRIP and reintroduction of share buybacks in the second half of the year. Moving to slide 13. All bank net interest income was up 4% year over year, or up 5% excluding trading revenue. These results reflect the benefit from both higher interest rates and higher volumes. On a sequential basis, all bank NIM excluding trading was up 12 basis points, reflecting margin expansion in Canadian banking and City National. Other benefits to all bank NIM were largely offset in non-interest income. On to slide 14. We will walk through this quarter's key drivers of Canadian banking NIM, which was up another three basis points from last quarter. Our low beta core deposits generated wider retail deposit spreads as the latent benefit of recent interest rate hikes continues to flow through. A favorable shift in asset mix driven by strong growth in credit card balances was partly offset by a shift in deposit mix. Margins continue to be impacted by the intense competition for mortgages, in addition to increasing competition for term deposits. Going forward, We continue to expect to see the structural benefits of our ladder deposit portfolio come through as we benefit from continued reinvestment at higher rates. There are a number of factors which can alter the magnitude or trajectory of the structural benefit, such as the shape of the yield curve or changes in balance sheet mix. However, we do not believe NIM has peaked in Canadian banking. Turning to Citi National, NIM was up 29 basis points from last quarter. The increase reflected the full quarter benefit of Fed rate hikes on City National's asset-sensitive balance sheet, an 11 basis point benefit from the intercompany sale of certain City National debt securities, as well as lower levels of FHLB funding. Looking to next quarter, we expect NIM to continue moving higher as we realize the full quarter benefit of structural balance sheet improvements made last quarter. Moving to slide 15. Non-interest expenses were up 13% from last year. Approximately 6% of this growth was driven by acquisition and integration-related costs, as well as by macro-driven factors such as FX and share-based compensation. Legal provisions and impairment of other intangibles in U.S. wealth management, including City National, also contributed. Excluding these factors, core expense growth decelerated to 5% from 13% last quarter. in line with the guidance we provided in Q3. The largest contributors to core year-over-year expense growth were higher base salaries and severance costs, as well as ongoing investments in technology and continued investments in City National's operational infrastructure. We made progress on our cost reduction strategy, incurring bank-wide severance of $157 million and delivering on our commitment to reduce all bank FTE by 1% to 2%. With the majority of the reductions having taken place towards the end of the quarter, we anticipate full run rate savings of $235 million to be realized starting next quarter. We expect all bank core expense growth to come in the low to mid-single digit range in 2024. Excluded from this guidance is the cost of the FDIC special assessment, which we estimate at approximately $120 million U.S. dollars. Results this year benefited from a lower effective tax rate reflecting favourable changes in earnings mix and certain deferred tax adjustments, which were partially offset by the impact of the Canada recovery dividend and a 1.5% increase in the Canadian corporate tax rate. Looking forward, we expect the non-TV effective tax rate to be in the 19% to 21% range in 2024. Moving to our segment performance, beginning on slide 16. Personal and commercial banking reported earnings of $2.1 billion. Canadian banking pre-provision, pre-tax earnings were up 4% year over year. Canadian banking net interest income was up 6% from last year due to higher spreads and solid volume growth of 7%. Non-interest income was up 2% year over year as higher client activity contributed to increased service revenue and credit fees. Operating leverage was flat for the year, including severance taken in the quarter. Looking forward, we expect Canadian banking operating leverage for 2024 to come in within our historical 1% to 2% target. Turning to slide 17, wealth management earnings were down 74% from last year, largely reflecting the impact of $380 million of impairments and legal provisions in U.S. wealth management, including City Nationals. The segment was also impacted by severance costs and the partial sale of RBC Investor Services operations. We believe the underlying performance of our wealth management advisory and asset management business was solid, including strong pre-tax margins and return on equity. Canadian and U.S. wealth management, as well as RBC global asset management, benefited from higher fee-based client assets, reflecting the benefits of market appreciation. Solid net sales in our wealth management advisory businesses were in contrast to retail net outflows at RBC GAM in a period where the Canadian mutual fund industry has experienced approximately $90 billion in net outflows over the last two years. U.S. wealth management was impacted by lower sweep deposit revenue and higher provisions for credit losses at City National. Turning to slide 18. Capital markets generated pre-provision pre-tax earnings of $886 million, bringing total PPPT for the year to $4.5 billion. This was in line with our expectations of $1.1 billion of PPPT earnings per quarter in a normalized environment. Results this quarter reflected record fourth-quarter revenue underpinned by market share gains across investment banking and global markets. Corporate and investment banking revenue is up 9% from last year, reflecting higher loan syndication activity and debt originations in the U.S. Global markets revenue was down 5% from last year, reflecting lower equity and FX trading revenue, partly offset by improved fixed income client flow. Activity slowed near the end of the quarter, reflecting unfavorable market conditions, which largely recovered in November. Turning to insurance on slide 19. Net income increased to $289 million, up 8% from a year ago, mainly due to improved claims experience and business growth across most products, partly offset by lower investment-related experience. We expect the upcoming implementation of the IFRS 17 accounting regime to result in a change in the timing of earnings recognition. While earnings will remain neutral over the life of a given insurance contract, reported earnings and earnings volatility are expected to be lower in the near term. We will provide further updates next quarter. To conclude, despite a number of headwinds, we generated an ROE of 15% this quarter, underpinned by the strength of our leading Canadian deposit franchise, our strong balance sheet, and the diversification benefits of our various revenue streams. We made good progress on our commitment to rationalize expenses, and we will remain diligent in containing costs through 2024. With that, I'll turn it over to Graham.

Thank you, Nadine, and good morning, everyone. Starting on slide 21, I'll discuss our allowances in the context of the macroeconomic environment. As Dave noted earlier, higher interest rates are causing growth to slow and unemployment rates to soften, and markets now believe the rate hiking cycle has concluded. Interest rates have been elevated for over a year, and credit outcomes have normalized from pandemic lows. Delinquency rates and impairments are at or above 2019 levels, and insolvencies have been steadily climbing. In our retail portfolio, higher interest rates and rising unemployment are now the primary drivers of credit outcomes. Clients who have yet to be impacted by higher rates, such as fixed-rate mortgage borrowers, continue to perform well with stable delinquency rates and elevated levels of savings. However, clients who have experienced a material increase in their mortgage payment are more likely to be showing signs of stress, with increasing going criteria rates and decreasing savings levels. To date, less than a third of mortgage clients have seen their payments impacted by higher rates. The majority of mortgage renewal is still over a year away. As we detailed on slide 34, over half of our Canadian banking residential mortgage balances renew in 2025 or 2026, with fixed rate borrowers in those cohorts currently paying an average rate of 3.1% and 3.5% respectively. As more people renew at higher rates and more of their income is used to service mortgage debt, we expect delinquencies and losses to increase in the retail portfolio. Our mortgage exposure benefits from the strong credit quality of our clients, significant borrower equity, and our clients' capacity to make higher payments. As such, higher rates and rising unemployment are expected to have the largest impact on credit cards and unsecured lines of credit, consistent with the traditional credit cycle. In our wholesale portfolio, higher interest rates have not been the main driver of credit deterioration. However, higher rates have exacerbated headwinds stemming from rising costs and changing consumer spending and behavioral patterns. This quarter, in our wholesale portfolio, we continue to see a growing number of credit downgrades, increasing watch list exposure, and more accounts being transferred to our special loans team. With this backdrop, we added $194 million of provisions on performing loans this quarter. Provisions were predominantly on commercial real estate loans in the wholesale portfolio and on credit card and personal loans in the retail portfolio. We have now added provisions on performing loans for six consecutive quarters, increasing our allowance on performing loans by 33% over that period. We are prudently provisioned, and as Dave noted earlier, our total allowance for credit losses on loans of 5.3 billion is now almost three times our 2023 PCL unimpaired loans. Moving to slide 22, provisions on unimpaired loans were up 40 million, or two basis points relative to last quarter, consistent with our expectations. In our retail portfolio, provisions on impaired loans were higher across most products, led by credit cards and personal loans. Our retail Stage 3 PCL ratio of 21 basis points remains well below our average historical loss rate of 30 basis points, as the portfolio continues to benefit from relatively low unemployment rates and strong client savings. However, as I noted earlier, we expect credit outcomes to deteriorate as more clients become impacted by higher interest rates over time, as unemployment rates continue to increase. In our wholesale portfolios, provisions on impaired loans were up 17 million or two basis points quarter over quarter. During the quarter, 25% of our wholesale provisions were in commercial real estate, taken on previously impaired loans. This quarter, there was only one newly impaired commercial real estate loan, and we expect to be fully repaid on the loan with losses absorbed by equity and subordinated debt holders. More broadly, recoveries on impaired loans are being negatively impacted by depressed valuations due to the level of uncertainty of interest rates, as well as tighter credit conditions, particularly in the U.S., Outside of commercial real estate, the remaining 75% of wholesale provisions were taken across several sectors. Some of the provisions were a result of idiosyncratic events, like the writer and actress strike in California, while other provisions were a function of changing consumer behaviors post-pandemic. Regionally, approximately two-thirds of wholesale provisions this quarter were in the U.S. Our wholesale stage 3 PCL ratio in the U.S. is almost three times higher than in Canada. This reflects the number of structural challenges in the U.S. market, as well as the speed at which distressed loans in the U.S. are restructured. It also reflects the strength of the Canadian banking commercial portfolio, where loans often benefit from recourse or guarantees from sponsors. Our allowances appropriately reflect these structural differences. For example, in commercial real estate, our ACL ratio in performing loans is approximately four times higher in the U.S. than in Canada. Moving to slide 23, growth-impaired loans were up $420 million, or four basis points this quarter, with increases across all of our major lending businesses. We have now seen five consecutive quarterly increases in growth-impaired loans, and our GIL ratio of 42 basis points is approaching 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Compared to last quarter, new formations were higher across most wholesale sectors and retail products, with the exception of commercial real estate, which I noted earlier. As we head further into the credit cycle, we expect new formations and growth-impaired loan balances to continue to increase. To conclude, despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, we continue to be pleased with the ongoing performance of our portfolios. For the year, our PCL on impaired loans of 21 basis points remains well below our historical loss rates. It was at the low end of the guidance I provided last fall of 20 to 25 basis points. Our strong credit performance reflects our diversified business model, our prudent underwriting practices, and the quality of our clients. We also added $660 million of provisions on performing loans this year, and we feel well prepared for more uncertain and challenging credit conditions going forward. In 2024, we are forecasting credit losses more in line with historical loss rates. For the year, we expect provisions on impaired loans between 30 to 35 basis points, with peak loss rates in late 2024 and into 2025. We expect to continue building reserves on performing loans for the first two or three quarters of the year until our projected peak losses are inside our provisioning window. This guidance is predicated on our current macroeconomic forecast, and our actual losses will be largely dependent on the magnitude of change in unemployment rates, the direction and magnitude of changes in interest rates, and residential and commercial real estate prices. As always, we continue to proactively manage risk through the cycle and remain well capitalized to withstand plausible yet more severe macroeconomic outcomes. With that, operator, let's open the lines for Q&A.

Thank you. We will now take questions from the telephone lines. If you have a question and you're using a speakerphone, please lift your hands up before making your selection. If you have a question, please press star 1 on your device's keypad. You also can cancel your question at any time by pressing star 2. So please press star 1 at this time. If you have a question, there will be a brief pause while the participants register. We thank you for your patience. Thank you. The first question is from Gabriel Deschain from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Good morning. I have a question about overdrafts. We've covered that off in the U.S. quite a bit over the past few years, but it's percolating in Canada, clearly. Are you willing to quantify... what percentage of your Canadian revenues are generated from overdraft fees? I mean, I'm asking you only because your core deposit business is so large.

Yeah, thanks, Gabe. It's Neil. I'll take the question. Maybe a little bit of context. In Canada, the conversations we're having around that direction are really focused on NSF fees as well as a – a direction of making sure that low and no-cost deposit accounts are made available to Canadians. So on those two fronts, which are really the focus of the conversations, we actually provide a free NSF charge as part of our core main deposit account. We mostly take in our go-to-market strategies. We also have, I'd say, quite generous pay-no-pay processes where We will actually do analytics to understand if the client has that type of liquidity that we expect to come, and we'll cover that to avoid the NSF charges. We also have the lowest NSF fee in the country. So we'll work with the government to make sure that that policy direction is taken forward. In terms of we don't expect, to be very clear, any material reduction in other income on the retail bank as a result of this. And the last portion of that question around low and no-cost accounts, we already do provide this product. It is a regulatory requirement. And the focus from the government is really making sure that some of the larger FIs also participate in making sure that low and no-cost accounts are made available. So that's really the core of it.

So you don't expect anything material from the sounds of it? No, we don't. Am I allowed a second question? I forget now. Yeah, fire away. Okay, just looking at the deposit mix trends in Canadian banking again, we've seen the term deposit GIC growth slow. But if I look at it at an industry level, GICs and term deposits, whatever, as a percentage of total deposits in Canada are still pretty low relative to historical standard. I'm wondering if... You know, how does that inform our view on margins? Is there still, you know, a pretty big natural uplift to these term deposits, and should that be viewed as a, you know, an ongoing NIM headwind here that's not gonna go away for a while? Maybe talk about that for a bit, please.

Yeah, sure, Gabe. It's Neil again. So we have seen from mid-year a slowing in the rotation into term deposits. quite slow, it dropped quite a bit in Q3, picked up a little bit in Q4. Overall, this is the consumer looking for yield. Where that's coming from is multiple sources in our book. So a good portion of that is actually coming external to the bank. So we're welcoming new clients, taking on incremental volumes. The other flows coming from our mutual fund business where clients are just looking for that risk-free or next to risk-free yield, but the GIC product has been benefiting from inflows from all types of deposit products. So that's really kind of, as we look at the direction of the flow of funds, where things have moved. Checking is down marginally year over year, savings is down a little bit more year over year, representing those flows. But overall, the Canadian consumer still has a material buffer in overall deposits pre-pandemic. So Some of that has started to erode. You heard Graham's comments, you know, where clients need to put that liquidity towards paying increased mortgage payments. We're seeing some of that. But overall, we'd say the consumer still has some good healthy buffers.

All right. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is from Manny Grauman from Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. I wanted to follow up on commentary you made about revisiting the drip buyback issue in the second half of the year. I'm just wondering, first of all, if the DC buffer goes up by 50 basis points, does that change your guidance on this issue? And also wondering about the expectations for rates that's built into that comment, that outlook.

Jeremy, thank you. So in terms of where we had a healthy capital build this quarter, which as I mentioned in my remarks, when we look at the pending closure of HSBC pending the regulatory approvals, we expect to be healthy over the 12%, which if you look at where OSFI is currently from a DSB standpoint, that would put us well over a 50 basis point buffer against the current regulatory minimum. So when we're thinking about where we expect to land post HSBC, barring any other changes from the economic environment, we think that we still would be comfortably able to revisit the drip post that into the second half of the year.

Got it. Is there any update in terms of the timing of the HSBC deal?

Maybe I can answer that. It's Dave here. We certainly feel very good about the overall process, and we have to respect the overall process in all steps. We have strong approval from the Competition Bureau, who recognizes that there remains very strong competition in the Canadian marketplace and in all the markets where HSBC operated. This provides enormous benefit to Canadians as far as increased taxes, increased dividends in the country. It's very significant. You can see upwards of $300 million, $400 million, $500 million of increased dividends in Canada that were flowing out of the country under HSBC Global before. It's good for clients as far as offering HSBC clients an enormous amount of opportunity with our product set and our capabilities across wealth and capital markets and credit cards and other areas where we're really strong. And conversely, that technology that we're bringing to to bear on our 17 million clients, particularly in my speech around trade finance and multi-currency accounts and cross-border trading. So I think from that perspective, when you look at the process we've gone through, you look at the benefits to Canada, you look at the fact that HSBC has made the decision to exit this country, and we have to respect that. It would be a very bad signal to the foreign investors to not move forward with this. as we have to attract capital into this country. And therefore, for all those reasons, we are confident in the overall outcome of this transaction. We're waiting for approval, and we have to respect that process. But we feel good about the transaction. We're well on our way to coding the technology side of this with our HSBC partners, where we're allowed to prior to approval. And we are very, very excited about what this can do for Canada what it can do for HSBC clients and communities like British Columbia, where we'll invest significantly in the BC economy. So for all those reasons, this is good for Canada, and therefore we expect we're close.

I'll leave it there. Thanks, Peter. Thank you. The next question is from Ibrahim Poonawalla from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Good morning. It's going to be the first question, Graham, for you in terms of the credit outlook. You talked about peak losses towards the end of the year into 2025. When you think about the economy today in Canada and the consumer, do you have – enough confidence in the visibility if rates are done going higher, how much downside there is or how much pain there is for the consumer and how that translates into credit losses, be it unsecured or business? Or, like, how would you rate the level of uncertainty around the macro and what that means and how credit performs over the coming quarters?

Yeah, thanks, everyone. It's a good question. You know, as I noted, I mean, there's still a lot of uncertainty in how credit plays out over 2024, and certainly as we look beyond that, it's going to be hugely dependent on how unemployment plays out over that time, how incomes for consumers play out over that time, what happens in the interest rate environment, where house prices go. I mean, these are all very critical factors into how, you know, the impacts will really flow through our books. You know, we certainly... capture that in a number of different ways. One, you know, certainly in our baseline, I think Dave commented on some of the big macro factors there. We are assuming in the baseline that interest rates, you know, the short end of the interest rates start to pull back in the latter half of next year. You know, we assume housing prices are, you know, fairly stable going forward, but not accreting terribly fast. But unemployment we do see picking up and starting to peak out in kind of the mid-year of next year. Now, we recognize there's a lot of uncertainty in all that, and that's where kind of our downside scenarios play a big role for us When we look at the downside scenarios, that pessimistic scenario we referred to, to give you some consideration on that, that assumes that house prices could come off 15% and kind of stay down at that level for an extended period. We assume a rate environment where rates persist higher than they are now for a longer period. And we consider a world where unemployment could get up into the mid-7s. And so that kind of gives you context for how we think about that downside scenario. So that all kind of comes into play and we weigh that up against our portfolio in terms of how we think about what 2024 is looking like, but where we start to kind of at least get early indications of where we think this will peak out. But again, where and when it peaks out is going to be highly dependent on the path going forward.

That's good, Kala. Thank you, Graham. And maybe just one of Nadine on the low to mid single-digit expense growth guidance. Dave just talked about HSBC. How does the timing of HSBC and HSBC impact achievement of incremental savings given the close to convert there? Like, would that meaningfully impact this if the deal, for whatever reason, got pushed out by a few months as far as the closing date is concerned?

Thanks. No, no. In terms of – so the number that I gave in terms of guidance, Ibrahim, just to be clear, excluded anything related to HSBC coming on board. It does include costs related to the integration that we do adjust for. So that guidance is excluding – the specified items. So in terms of our work that we're doing is integrating HSBC, that wouldn't change anything materially as it relates to the guidance that I've provided going into 2024 in that low to mid-single digits. The guidance that the HSBC still would hold in terms of our synergies, which we're still very confident in in terms of the two-year outlook with most of it coming into the second year.

Understood. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is from Paul Holden from CIBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thank you. Good morning. I want to go back to you, Graham, to start. You gave us a number of the factors that obviously matter for provisioning. I guess what I want to ask is how sensitive are your credit models to interest rates versus unemployment? I guess the reason I ask is with the you know, wall of mortgage renewals coming up in 2025. Let's say we go through a situation where unemployment holds up okay, but rates remain high. Like, how bad a scenario is that versus the opposite way where you may see higher unemployment but lower interest rates?

Right, yeah, that's a good question, Paul. Thank you. You know, certainly I would start by saying it's not like we rely on one set of models here to give us all the answers. We certainly, you know, look at these a number of different ways. We obviously have a high degree of detail on our client base that really allows us to kind of examine the impact that we'll have on them. You know, all this is backstopped by a starting point that, you know, at origination, all these clients went through kind of a consideration on the so-called stress test to make sure there was good resiliency to higher interest rates. That's why we provided some of the disclosure we did this quarter to give you some sense for kind of what that kind of starting rate looks like and kind of what the impact could be on them. But when we go through that, I would say, yes, high rates are going to be impactful and But it really is going to be looked at in conjunction with what kind of plays out with house prices. There's a lot of equity clients have in their houses. And so, you know, when they have good equity, that gives them a lot of options, a lot of options to potentially extend amortizations, to offset the payments, to potentially kind of consider life changes and upgrade or downgrade their houses. There's going to be an income generation that happens over that period. So I think there's a lot of factors that come into it, of which certainly interest rates is part of it, but I wouldn't say interest rates by itself will tell us the whole story.

Okay, got it. And my second question is related to City National. So Dave, you provided some pretty clear and useful expectations around return to profitability starting next quarter and improving through 2025. I guess what I want to understand is to what extent does that impact the all-bank results, i.e., is the improvement in profitability next quarter simply a result of that intra-company transaction, or are there action plans that are actually going to impact the bottom-line earnings as well? Thank you.

Paul, thank you for that question. So, as we think about the rapid growth we've gone through in City National, the return to profitability has a couple of factors. One is The absence of the write-down of the non-core assets obviously has a significant benefit. Two, we executed a reduction of over 5% of employee layoffs in Q4, and you'll start to see the cost run rate of that 5% reduction. And those severance costs, which are absorbed within the businesses, we don't call them out there. So I think from that perspective, that provides a tailwind opportunity Continued expense management, we still have a very high expense ratio for a business of this size compared to peers. So with the new management team under Greg Carmichael, they have a clear focus on how to drive a competitive for a $70 to $100 billion bank productivity ratio. So that's very much in our focus to do that as we look at streamlining the organization and the benefits of some of the technology investments we've made. Then I would say over – that's in 24. And then so we expect to exit the year with a more normalized run rate and then into 25, kind of run it where we're hoping to be this year at the end of the day. We still face kind of overall challenges from funding costs, as you can imagine, but that will start to alleviate as you see rates start to come down in the U.S. maybe sooner than most people thought they would. That provides benefit on funding but also puts a little bit of pressure on our revenue line, and we'll watch that carefully. But as you saw in our capital markets franchise, seven or eight years ago, after a period of very rapid balance sheet growth, we ended up with a lot of single service lending clients. And I would say the capital markets business over the last five years has done a fantastic job of leveraging existing balance sheet in our WA until multi-product relationships, higher ROEs have come from that. And this is part of a growth process in a franchise that's growing quickly. And you'll see that in Citi National as well. As Greg and Howard and Chris and the team, along with Kelly Coffey, continue to focus on clients with deposit relationships, with FX relationships, with cross-sell on the commercial and private bank side, you'll see us start to enhance our overall profitability and ROEs from that. So it's a journey in the United States, but we'll return to profitability and then we will get back to more normalized towards the end of the year and into 2025 and start to realize the benefits of this very strong franchise at the end of the day. It's been a difficult year. It came at us really quickly in March, and I think we've done a good job pivoting and have a number of levers to do that.

Helpful. Thanks for that.

Thank you. The next question is, is from Doug Young from Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. Maybe, Dave, staying with Citi National Bank, I guess I'm more curious, you know, what's gone wrong since all the different things that have kind of played out since you've bought the business? And I'm more curious, I kind of understand a bit of the macro side of it. Is there things that you would have done differently or is there other things within your control that you can kind of talk a little bit about? Or was this just all, you know, most of the macro side just kind of went against you?

I think it's the latter. I mean, since we bought it, we've had seven good years at the end of the day. And we had a plan this year to have a record year for City Nationals. So I would say we've been very happy with the franchise and it's carried the organization in growth. And I think given the tough year we've had, it will provide a bit of a tailwind for us into 24, obviously, as we can perform better. and then again into 25. So I would first challenge it hasn't been a strong performer for us. And we thought coming into the year pre the banking crisis in March that we would have our strongest year. But it was the macro environment. It was the rapid move and deposit costs, kind of the volatility of the customer franchise. as far as money movement, not only within the U.S. banking sector, but increasingly outside the U.S. banking sector, led to much higher betas than we had ever seen in this franchise. This franchise has operated this client segment for 60 years, and we have not seen this type of volatility in the overall business. So it came at us really quickly. We didn't plan for it. I think we pivoted well. I think to your question, what could we have done better? I think we could have focused on growing with more multi-product clients quicker. I think the focus on deposits came in so quickly and so easily to this franchise over the last five, six years. We were long, what, $35 billion of deposits midway through the financial crisis. We focused on a lot of single-service lending, and I think if we had really focused on leveraging uh into multi-product relationships we'd see a different profitability model now and just the pivot from don't forget this was a community bank when we bought it and we've grown it now into a mid-sized regional and we're re-platforming this thing for the next decade so going from a community bank to a regional bank is not an easy journey and we're well into that now and therefore we will have a platform that's more profitable and able to grow multi-currency relationships including and U.S. cash management into the mid-corporate sector in the coming year. So I think from that perspective overall, on any journey, it takes a long time to build these franchises, and I think any journey you're going to hit a few bumps, I would say it's mostly macro. We think the client franchise and the long-term potential is very, very strong in this franchise.

I appreciate the color. It's just a question I get asked, so I do appreciate the color intensity. Glad you asked it. Thank you. Yeah, and then, Dean, just on the NIMS and Kena, the comment that it's not peaking yet, and I understand the tractors and how that unfolds. Can you dig maybe a little bit more into that, or maybe that's just everything that's behind the story? And then can you kind of bring that up to the all-bank level in terms of what you're thinking in terms of the evolution of the all-bank NIM excluding trading over the coming year?

Absolutely. So when you think about our – if I start with Canadian banking, and I mentioned that the benefit we continue to get from the deposit tractors, and if you look at it, that's really going to leg over for quite a period of time, even if rates start to come off. And you look at our interest rate sensitivity, that shock is for an immediate 100 basis point. But we're continuing to leg into those higher rates, and that will continue to benefit. There are offsets to that, as I mentioned. And one of the things that we saw earlier in the year was really around the deposit mix shifts. That has, as Neil mentioned, abated quite significantly. And if rates start to come off, that is something that probably we'll start to see that even shift back maybe from the bank standpoint into mutual funds, which is a benefit for us as well. The challenge also is then around kind of the business mix as it relates to on the asset side and mortgages if the increased competition there pushes margins down. So we do expect that based on our deposit franchise, we will continue to see an immigration, how much that gets pulled back a bit, related to some of those other factors. At the all-bank level then, when you think about the three primary components that we highlighted there between Canadian banking, Citi National, then you have what's in corporate support. What's really sitting there is you have from an internal asset liability management, we push through all of the impacts associated with with the margins into the business, and you're seeing offsets there where you will have an internal flow that gets put in NII, and you will have the hedge that sits in other income. And so that's why we tell you to really net the two of those. The reason that that's gone so large is primarily because of the floating leg that you'll see there, and that's that differential between either the funding side or the derivative side, and that's where you're seeing the increase on the corporate support side within the DCOM for all bank NIMs.

So in that about, you do expect the All Bank to kind of go in a similar direction as the Canadian Bank?

Excluding trading, yes. Both contribute what we commented on, Citi National and Canadian Banking, excluding that noise, yes.

Appreciate it. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is from Sara Mulahedi from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Okay, thank you. Hopefully two quick questions. One for Derek. I mean, I think there was mention of some sort of record-breaking quarter for some parts of your business. Can you just give us a sense of how you see the business developing over the next two to four quarters maybe?

Sure. Thanks, Saurabh. Yeah, for Q4, just to touch on it, it was a record revenue quarter for Q4 and was a record revenue year for 23 overall. So, obviously, we're very pleased with the results and I think reflects headway we've been making on a number of the strategic initiatives we've undertaken. As we look forward to 2024, right now I would say – we're cautiously optimistic on the outlook. Obviously, there still is a fair bit of uncertainty on the economy and rates and implications that may have on markets and client activity. But overall, I think we feel quite constructive in terms of the macro and then obviously some of the specific things we're driving to grow the business. So if I just step through that a little bit, Global markets has obviously had a pretty constructive environment the last two years, given some of the volatility. We think as the economy and markets stabilize a little bit, that may normalize a bit. But overall, I think we expect a reasonably constructive environment for the sales and trading business next year. Investment banking has obviously had a difficult two years with fee pools down 30% plus each of 2022 and 2023. I think, again, as we see a little greater confidence in the outlook over the next few years, we're starting to see corporate and sponsor activity pick up. That's reflected in, obviously, a good quarter you saw in Q4 and improving visibility on our backlog. So I think we feel good about the outlook for the investment banking franchise next year. And then, you know, demand for credit among our corporate clients continues to be quite steady, and so we envision a – I think a good solid year next year for our lending franchises. One headwind has obviously been an elevated cost of funding. With rates potentially peaking, spreads peaking, we would be hopeful that that pressure has abated through 24 and more into 25. We maybe start to see that settle down a bit. So that gives you a bit of an overview, reasonably constructive overall in the businesses. And importantly... We feel confident in our strategy and a number of the investments we've been making to underpin that. You've seen that evidenced in market share gains this year across both our markets, business, and investment banking, and we feel good we can continue that momentum into next year.

Okay, that's very helpful. And then just a quick one for Neil. They've got a target of 1% to 2% positive operating leverage for you next year. Do you think that's going to be more on the revenue side or on the expense side? Or which one do you think will make it more challenging for you, the revenues or the expenses to deliver on that?

Thanks for the question. I mean, I think there's obviously we can control the expense. We have more volatility in the revenue line. So you've seen us take the expenses on a downward trajectory that will definitely continue. But that's one of the reasons that we really focus on operating leverage. because there is that type of uncertainty. So we'll manage the operating leverage through the year, and we've made some, pulled some levers, particularly around FTE. You heard Dave's comments earlier in the year, and that type of focus will continue.

Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from Mario Menonca from TD Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Good morning. First for Graham, in your opening comments, you said something about performing loan provisions in the first three quarters of 24, but I didn't quite follow. What were you suggesting there?

Well, I'm just suggesting the range we gave, the range I guided to, is 30 to 35 basis points on Stage 3. Stage 1 and 2 is harder to guide on because we're effectively trying to give a best estimate of what our future expectations are. But just given the forward trajectory and our view that Stage 3 probably doesn't start to really kind of peak out toward the end of next year and into 2025, we do expect that we'll continue to build Stage 1 and 2 through the first two or three quarters as well.

But is that like – are you talking the normal course, the five to – I don't know, maybe four to eight basis points, or are you applying something more than that?

No, I mean, I don't think we can – a certain amount at this point, Mario, but right now I think, you know, we've been building in a range for the last few quarters, and I would say that kind of is a reasonable expectation right now, but subject to all the kind of, you know, different considerations around house prices and interest rates and unemployment, et cetera.

Yes, sir. Probably for Dave next. You've seen some of your peers take meaningful restructuring charges this quarter, and clearly Royal is doing – what it does to manage expenses, but we're not seeing any sort of large restructuring initiatives, at least in Canada. That's my impression. Somebody asked the question this way. Have there been any meaningful headcount reductions in Canada buried in these severance charges, or has Canada been left out of the mix for now?

No, I think Nadine referenced it in her comments that we are just under 2% reduction in Canada. You see Neil's FTE is down. That's where the focus was. That's where the overhiring was, as we talked about last year. We had a couple of thousand frontline people when attrition slowed down. So, yes, that's where the run, a big part of the run rates coming out of Canada, the $200-plus million or, I think, $240,000, Nadine, of run rates. coming out of Canada, in addition to a fair bit of heavy lifting in City National as well, as 5% of that workforce, or around 300 people there as well. So I think between the two, though, Canada is definitely down and will continue to be fit for the future. As is our practice, we absorb those into our overall run rate, and we will continue to manage our platform in conjunction with the macro environment and revenues and and target that operating leverage. So we don't call it out as specifically as our peers do. It's the cost of doing business, and you should hold them to that at the end of the day. And therefore, that's how we operate.

And just a quick follow-up on HSBC. It's become somewhat politicized, and that's sort of unfortunate. But the nature of the question I want to ask is this. Is there – And I know you can't take us into the boardroom and relay your discussions with the people that matter here, but is this just a matter of Royal now having to make some kind of concessions around people and processes for 2024 to get this over the finish line?

I can't give you that type of detail. This transaction has enormous benefits for Canada, and I would say all parties in the approval process understand the benefits. to the country of tax revenue increases, of dividend increases, of investment in Canada and incremental investment in Canada, the benefits to employees and to clients. Everybody understands that. Everybody understands that HSBC is leaving, has made a choice to leave, and it would look horrible on Canada if you didn't allow the free flow of capital. Everybody understands that, and that gives us confidence overall that the benefits of this structure, the diligence that the Competition Bureau put into this, and they put enormous diligence through an extended process with tens of thousands of documents. We have to respect the process, and therefore I remain confident, given that everybody at all levels understand the benefits and why this is good for Canada and why not doing it is very bad for Canada.

Understood.

Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is from Lamar Perso from Carmark Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thanks. I just want to continue along that line of questioning, but I want to approach it a little bit differently. So would it be fair to suggest that based on where you sit today, the accretion and synergies estimates associated with the HSBC deal we should expect that to hold. So there aren't any additional concessions that could impact the economics of the deal together over the finish line. Is that a fair statement?

Yes.

Okay. Okay.

And then... We love this transaction. We love this bank. We're confident in our cost takeout. We're working through and we'll talk to you about where we see revenue synergies going forward, you know, post-close and... Therefore, yes, we are very excited about this because it's good for Canada. It's good for RPC and its shareholders. And we don't expect any material delay in the realization of the benefits with the protracted approval process.

I appreciate that. That's very clear. And then just on the outlook for Canadian banking margins, I understand that you guys are expecting that to move higher significantly. This quarter, it was really driven by mix because competition really offset the benefits of rates. Is there a similar dynamic expected to play out moving forward? That is, you know, mix is going to be the real driver for higher Canadian banking margins. Is that fair?

I would say that the latent benefit associated really with the strong – Deposit franchise, that's where interest rate sensitivity comes from. That's what's driving a lot of the margin expansion. I would position it a bit differently. So the question really is, is the competition around certain products and the mix associated with where our balance sheet is trending going to be offsetting that? I think the baked-in structural advantage is what we're thinking is going to create the lift.

Okay, thanks.

Thank you. The next question is from Nigel D'Souza from Veritas Investment Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to follow up on Citi National, but more so on your strategic outlook long-term. You purchased that bank for $5 billion, put more capital in, and even with the measures taken, looks like the profitability is going to fall short of what you initially expected with that business. So has that changed your appetite? if there is another opportunity to purchase a U.S. retail or commercial banking franchise, would you still allocate capital to that, or would you prefer focusing the capital domestically or with your capital markets and wealth management business?

Well, thank you for that question. Our second home market continues to be the U.S. We continue to look to deploy capital into the United States organically or inorganically over time. I think the first thing that's required is a stabilization of all the rules and all the policies and all the regulatory environment in the United States and understand liquidity rules and capital rules that are under debate right now. Therefore, you'll have to work through that. You have to move into a different interest rate environment because you've got accounting marks on everybody's balance sheet. That makes it very problematic to do M&A right now. So all of that has to kind of clear the way. And then we have to complete our integration of our technology build so that if we were to bring another bank onto our platform, we could do cost takeout from that, and we're not at that point yet. So I think from all those perspectives, we're watching. It could be in any one of those lines of businesses, but between wealth and commercial and other spaces that we've talked about. But, yes, over the medium to longer term, we are very much interested in growing our U.S. franchise business. And one of the reasons we asked Eric to take over the overall integration of those three businesses is to simplify our business model in the United States, simplify our technology infrastructure and reduce duplication and make us more profitable and amenable to a strategic move forward like that. So all of this is laying the groundwork to a long-term multi-year investment in the United States.

That's it for me.

Thank you. Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I will turn the call back to Asim Imran. Back to you.

Yeah, I'll just take the call from here, Dave. So thanks very much for all your questions. Very good questions, as always. Just to summarize kind of my takeaways from the messages through your Q&A today and what I'd like you to focus on, enormous balance sheet strength and liquidity strength with capital at 14.5%. You can see the clear path towards being able to absorb HSBC continue to build capital and allocate capital for growth and to start returning capital to shareholders in the near future. So that strength of capital built and organic growth is core to one of our investment themes, as you know, and the return on that capital. You've heard us and you've asked a lot of questions about cost control. You've seen us move core expenses down to that 5% mark and the commitment to continue to move it down Next year in 2024, we feel very good about that. A number of initiatives that we've already executed and more that we'll make to continue to manage that. I hope you notice the very strong client volume performance, whether it's investment banking, global markets, Canadian retail deposits, Canadian retail lending, Canadian business lending, asset management, and into wealth management, U.S. wealth management. Very strong core client compete. going to continue to flow through and good revenue growth for us and cross-selling off those clients, particularly new clients to the bank, is very, very strong. And in our PCL, with all that growth, our PCL looks to relatively outperform as well. So net-net, we feel very good about how we've turned the corner. We wrote off some non-core assets that were a little noisy. We don't do that very often, but we did it this quarter. Really poised to take advantage of whichever way the macro environment goes. In 24, we're poised to do well in that environment. So thank you very much. Have a great year end and a good holiday season, and we'll see you in Q1.

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.