Safe Bulkers, Inc.

Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the SafeBulkers conference call to discuss the first quarter 2021 financial results. Today we have with us from SafeBulkers, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Polis Hadjouanou, President Dr. Lucas Bambaris, Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Konstantinos Adamopoulos. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session, at which time if you wish to ask a question, you'll need to press star 1 on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. Following this conference call, if you need any further information on the conference call or on the presentation, please contact Capital Link at 212-661-7566. I must advise you this conference is being recorded today, the 6th of May, 2021. Before we begin, please note that this presentation contains forward-looking statements as defined in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended concerning future events, the company's growth strategy and measures to implement such strategy, including expected vessel acquisitions and entering into further time charters. Words such as expects, intends, plans, believes, anticipates, hopes, estimates, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Although the company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. These statements involve known and unknown risks and are based upon a number of assumptions and estimates which are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of the company. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to, changes in the demand for dry bulk vessels, competitive factors in the market in which the company operates, risks associated with operations outside the United States and other factors listed from time to time in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company expressly disclaims any obligations or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the company's expectations with respect to their due or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any statement is based. And now I pass the floor to Dr. Barbaris. Please go ahead, sir.

Dr. Good morning. I'm Lucas Barbaris, president of SafeBikers. Welcome to our conference call and webcast to discuss the financial results for the first quarter of 2021. Let me start our presentation by expressing our gratitude to all our CFIRs. We are committed to their safety and well-being. Moving on to slide three, We present some key points about safe markets. We are a pure dry bulk player. Without predecessors, we have a history of 60-plus years of uninterrupted presence in the dry bulk market. Our management team has more than 30 years of experience in the dry bulk industry. We are here for the long run. We preserve our liquidity, which provides financial flexibility, security, turbulence, and opportunistic asset acquisitions. Our spot market exposure allows expansion of profits in favorable charter market conditions. We have half of our fleet in the spot market and about one-third of period charters index-linked enjoying the present market conditions. About 75% of our fleet is Japanese-built, providing us with a lower environmental footprint, lean operations, and costly advantages from scrubber-fitted vessels based on increased fuel spread differential. We have actively centered the environmental preservation in the heart of our competitive strategy by investing more than $67 million in 2019 and 2020, that equipping 50% of our fleet with exhaust gas cleaning devices, also known as grappers, which provide us with extra income capability in rising oil price environment. Management team has a skill in the game that offers full alignment with shareholders. We have demonstrated our two-fold fleet renewal strategy. On the one hand, looking forward, looking towards 2030, with ordering Greenhouse Gas EDI Phase 3 and Noxier 3 Japanese Nucleus, and on the other hand, capturing the present market by opportunistic second-hand acquisition, replacing older vessels at a modest price differential. At the same time, we continue the gradual deleveraging of the company. I will continue in slide four. We focus on our spot market exposure. I would like to point out that 75% of our fleet is Japanese versus 46% of the world fleet, providing us with a lower environmental footprint, lean operations, and cost-be-in advantage. We present on the left side the key income spot market, which during the first quarter of 2021 has significantly improved. As a result of our exposure in the stock market, with half of our fleet and the fact that about one-third of our period charges are index-linked, we can observe on the right-hand side figures the impact on our PCE and net revenues of this quarter versus the same period of 2020. We continue the presentation of 72 points in slide 5. We demonstrate our lean operations and low break-even points with stable operating expenses yet again during this quarter. As a result, in slide 6, we have increased our profitability to earnings per share of 18 cents and 14 cents on an adjusted basis, as compared to an adjusted loss of 13 cents for the same quarter last year. Our liquidity has also increased, in slide 7, to over 190 million as of quarter end, and to over 209 million as of April 23rd, which increases our flexibility to execute on our fleet renewal strategy and leveraging. At the same time, we have a strong balance sheet, as analyzed in slide 8, with a healthy total liability to total asset ratio of about 50%. Now, let's see another view of the first quarter as presented in slide number 9. We have increased our profitability in tandem with our exposure. We talked about flip in the stock market and about one-third of our period status enjoying indexing rates. As an example, our recently early delivered tape size has been subsequently fixed for At a gross daily charter rate linked to the 5 ITC Baltic Exchange Cape Size Index, multiplied by 119%, the current PCI rate stands at 44,000. At the same time, we have increased our liquidity and strengthened our balance. We will continue our efforts to gradually renew our fleet through selective sales of water vessels and new acquisitions with modern design vessels that adhere to new environmental regulations. We remain focused on our environmental performance and continue to invest to improve our operations in this area as we believe that our environmental investments will contribute to sustained operational and financial advantage. Let's move now to slide 11 in the industry update. Most of the countries have accelerated COVID-19 vaccinations and have resumed their economic activity and in most cases at a faster pace than pre-COVID period. This year started with very strong chatter market. The average chatter higher for CAPEs is about 20.5 thousand year to date as compared to 5.4 thousand for the same period in 2020. Presently CAPEs are trading at about 45 thousand a day. Similarly for cancer matches, the average chatter higher is 19.3 thousand year to date as compared to 7.1 thousand for the same period in 2020. Presently, Gamser marches are trading at about $25,000 per day. This represents a substantial increase in the vessel's revenue, which has been sustained through the first five months of 2021. Looking on the FFA gaps, which have been extremely liquid and relevant to the market trend, the forecast is for the market to remain strong. According to the present trading rates for gap sizes, June is expected to trade at $47,000, Q3 and Q4 at 36,000 and 39,000 respectively. Similarly, for cancer masses, June is expected to rate at 28,000 per day, while Q3 and Q4 is at 25.5 and 22 per day respectively. The expected sustainability of the market comes as a result of the increase in the underlying demand, which is also reflected in the commodity prices, which we will review in a moment, and the lack of supply. In slide 12, we present the current status of the major relevant commodity prices. As seen, there has been a huge price surge on all commodities relevant to shipping. The main reason for this was a strong demand from China and from other countries, and the government's spending on post-pandemic recovery programs, as well as the greening projects of the global economy. Indicatively, iron ore, which is the main cargo for CAPES, is trading at about $190 per ton, comparable to 2009 levels. Similarly, for steel rebar, which is a direct product of iron ore and reflects the status of industrial production, it's currently trading at the highest levels in five years. Soya beans, which are among the major targets for crops and markets, have hit an eight-year high, and similar patterns apply on all grain products, such as wheat, corn, etc. In addition, we also predicted the price development of copper, which has staked above $10,000 for the first time since 2011. The surge in demand for commodities has been further enhanced by government stimulus plans. President Biden has proposed two additional stimulus plans on top of the one he has already passed. Furthermore, it is important to note that the demand is not only driven by China, which was the case through the past decade. The rest of the world is picking up, and many countries are real contributors to the demand side. Turning to slide 13, we present the status of the fleet for Cape and Panamaxes. On the top left graph, we present the price of five-year-old CAPEs in Panama since 2010, as assessed by both exchanges. The five-year-old CAPEs have surged by about 30% since the last six months and about 90% since 2016 lows, and presently are valued at about $4,000 million. Similarly, Panamax has surged by about 35% during the last six months and about 135% since the 2016 launch. It is important to note that above figures reflect the average vessel in terms of country and shipyard build, specifications, and maintenance conditions. SafeBuyGas has a fleet mostly built by top-class shipyards in Japan at advanced specifications. Moreover, 75% of the fleet is fitted with pallet water treatment system and half of the fleet is equipped with scrubbers. All these features are providing significant additional market values to each of our vessels. On the second and third graph, we present the status of the order. Until the end of the year, the new-built orders accounted for about 2.5% for Capes and about 3.7% for Panamax's. From 2022 onwards, the new orders are less than 2%. It is important to note that there are several limitations for anticipating a surge in new build orders. There is a scarce building capacity at most CPUs, as most CPUs have part of their slots by building other sectors, such as containers and tankers. In addition, only few CPUs have developed new environmentally efficient designs. These reasons, taking into account the aging of the fleet and the eventual scrapping, will diminish the growth of the dry bulk fleet. On the next slide, number 14, we will present the status of the banker prices, and more specifically, the difference between the price of very low self-fuel oil and the high self-fuel oil, the so-called high-five, which is of interest for our scrubber operations. Also on the top graph, the Brent prices collapsed during the pandemic period, especially in the beginning of 2020. As it was expected, this affected also the banker prices, and especially the distilled products, and yet the very low sales of fuel oil. Presently, Brent rates close to the pre-pandemic levels, in a healthy level of about $70 per barrel. High-fives is presently in the region of $110 per metric ton, And according to the future market in Singapore, it is expected to trade in the region of $120 for the remainder of 2021, and in the region of $130 for 2022 and 2023. State bankers have installed scrubbers on half of its fleet. For reference, a scrubber fitted for Panamax with consumption of about 7,500 metric tons per year may enjoy the benefit of about $120, which is... the difference between the very low sulfur fuel oil and the heavy sulfur fuel oil, making about 900,000 per year or about 2,500 per day. The recovery of global economies, restoration of mobility, and recovery of crude oil prices may increase the high-five differential even higher to pre-COVID-19 levels. Let me summarize the key market takeaways in slide 15. The order book is minimal, at its lowest level since 2002, as decarbonization discussions not favor new orders. Most CPUs are preoccupied with containers and tankers orders until 2024, and only a few CPUs have developed new environmental efficiency designs. We have experienced an exceptionally strong start of 2021, with robust volumes of iron ore, coal, and grain in trade, Demand for commodities has been exceptionally strong during the first quarter. We have seen increased government spending on post-pandemic stimulus programs and continuing greening of global economy. We have experienced brand prices recovery, which may lead to even wider high-five spread differential than that of today of about 120 tons. And lastly, the aging of the fleet and the increased environmental restrictions for emissions may enhance the scrapping activities. Now let me pass the floor to our CEO Foucault, Ferdinand Adamopoulos, for our financial overview. Thank you, Lucas, and good morning to everyone. Let me start. In slide 17, we have a chattering performance where we present our quarterly time chart equivalent rate for the first quarter, which stood at 16,567 vessels, versus our quarterly running expenses, which stood at $4,702. Moving on to slide 18, we present our quarterly daily OPEX and our quarterly daily GNA, which stood at $1,440. The aggregate figure for both OPEX and GNA for Q1 2021 was $6,142, demonstrating our focus on lean operations. We believe that this number, when comparing apples to apples, is one of the industries lower. If not the lowest, given the fact that we include in our OPEX all our dry stockings and pre-delivery expenses, and in our GMA, our management fees, our director, and office of administration, as well as all expenses related to the administration of our company. Moving on to fleet debt profile, as seen in slide 19, we present our repayment schedule as of March 31, 2021. As of that time, our liquidity stood at $191.4 million, consisting of cash and bank-grant deposits, restricted cash, contracted and drawn borrowing capacity under evolving credit facilities and secured commitments, including sale and misspark financing. In slide 20, we focus on our liquidity versus our capex. As of April 23rd, 2021, we had liquidity of $209.6 million, which included cash and cash equivalents, time-deported restricted cash and funds available under the sale and lease-back agreements, new-term loan agreements, as well as the revolving credit facility. Our aggregate remaining capex for the acquisition of our two duplicates currently on order were $52 million, of which 600,000 is payable this year and 51.4 million payable in 2022. In addition, the committed capex for the scrapper, for the installation of one scrapper and several ballast water treatment systems were 3.2 million, of which 2.3 is due this year and 900,000 next year. In slide 21, we present our debt amortization schedule versus the scrap value of our CLIP. We have a smooth net repayment profile for the next few years, so it's helping us gradually deliver as our company. Next slide, number 22. We will present our quarterly financial highlights for the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020. As a general note, during the first quarter of 2021, we operated in an improved target market environment higher charter rates compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. With lower interest expenses, oil revenues were supported by the earnings from struggle funds, heated vessels, and reduced oil expenses. During the third quarter of 2021, we had a time charter equivalent of $15,567, compared to a TCE of $9,089 during the same period in 2020. Net income for the first quarter of 2021 reached $21.3 million, compared to a net loss of $9.9 million during the same period in 2020. Net revenues decreased by 37% to $62.5 million for the third quarter in 2021, compared to $45.7 million for the same period in 2020. Mainly due to increased TCE as a result of the improved market, assisted also by the additional revenues earned by our Scarborough Peter vessels. Daily vessel OPEX decreased by 1% to $4,702, compared to $4,771 for the same period in 2019. This decrease is associated with reduced dry dockings and provision of technical services, which was impacted with increased crew repatriation expenses due to COVID-related issues. Daily vessel offers, excluding dry docking and pre-delivery expenses, increased by 2% to $4,358 for the first quarter of 2021, compared to $4,258 for the same period in 2020. Our adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2021 increased to $34.6 million, compared to $9.4 million for the same period in 2020. Our adjusted EPS for the first quarter in 2021 was 14 cents, calculated in a weighted average number of 103.3 million shares, compared to a loss per share of 13 cents during the same period in 2020, calculated in a weighted average number of 103.4 million shares. In slide 23, we will provide an estimation of the expected downtime in days for this year in order to assist our analysts with their projections. Using our presentation in slide 24, we will present our quarterly flight data and average daily indicators compared to the same period last year. We would like to emphasize that the company is maintaining strong liquidity positions with $209.6 million as of April 23, 2021. This increased liquidity provides us with flexibility to follow our plan, aiming to gradually renew our fleet with a view of forthcoming environmental changes, and sensibly deliver our balance sheet, targeting to create value for our shareholders. Once again, we would like to thank our seafarers for their commitment and dedication throughout this past period. Our press release presents in more detail our results, and we are now open to take questions.

Thank you. We'll now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and 1 on your telephone keypad and wait for the automated message advising your line is open. And please state your first and last name before you ask your question. If you wish to cancel your request, you can press star 2. So once again, it's star 1 to ask a question and star 2 to cancel. Thank you. We'll now take the first question. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi, this is William on for Chris Weatherby. Thank you for taking my question. So I just wanted to first ask about your fleet and the chartering strategy. So I know that half of your fleet is on the spot market currently.

Could you be closer to the microphone? Because we don't have good reception.

is on the spot market currently, so I just wanted to ask about your chartering strategy. So what are your thoughts about the portion of your vessels that will continue to trade in the spot market, and what would it take for you to kind of look to lock in some of your vessels on longer-term charters?

Yes, right now, half of the vessels are in the spot market, and the other half on short-term period market up to one year. Out of these period shifts, one-third of them, as you saw, is index-linked because we were feeling that the market will improve in 2021, and we decided those fixtures are part of the period fixtures to be done on index-linked basis. So we will continue for the rest of the quarter and up to the third quarter this policy to keep ships in the stock market. And possibly in the third quarter or the fourth quarter we will try to lock in longer periods as the charters will be more keen to secure longer period charters. Got it. That's very helpful.

Thank you. So I know that more recently, given the fact that spot rates have surged, that's really benefited your liquidity. But I'm also just kind of wondering, like, how you kind of plan to leverage that increased liquidity? Are you going to look to be more aggressive in pursuing your fleet renewal program and maybe acquire more vessels in the second-hand market?

Yes, I think that now our aim is to join the exercise of the leverage and fleet renewal. We are interested in newer technology vessels, which means we have to concentrate on acquisitions on ships younger than five years old. At the same time, we have some ships approaching 18 years old that we need to sell. So there will be some sales and some acquisitions and some selective ordering at a very limited time. because right now we see that the shipyards are not ready to propose new designs with the new technology, and there are not so many options there. This, of course, is giving us more optimism for the freight market, in that we don't expect to see new building orders, many dry-bulk new building orders for 2023. We believe that the yachts are getting filled up with big container ships and tanker orders. While strike bulk orders, the owners will be waiting the new designs to appear. But we don't see many ship yachts keen at the moment to develop these new designs.

All right. Thank you very much for taking my questions.

Thank you. And we'll now take our next question. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Great. Thanks. Hey, this is Ben Nolan from Stiefel. I actually just wanted to follow up on that last response. you guys ordered some ships late last year, but now are sort of looking for things with new designs. I'm curious if you could maybe flesh that out a little bit. Are you most interested, I don't know, in things that maybe would use ammonia, or is there something specific that you have in mind that isn't being developed that would be of interest?

Yeah, look, when we speak about new buildings for the future, and we said that we bought, we have bought the two ships, and we referred to phase, EDI phase three, I wanted to clarify that EDI phase three comes in the regulations after 2025. So basically what the company has done is that we ordered not the present generation that we can do easily, which is Phase 2, until 2025, but we ordered the Phase 3 vessels, which are much closer to 2030 and are more advanced. Now, the company has chosen this route because we believe it's a pragmatic route for the existing technologies, and we know that Despite the fact that there are several discussions and researches about new fuels, we are quite sure and we know that new fuels like hydrogen or ammonia will not come to play a role in, let's say, the next decade. So by having the most advanced ships of 2025 onwards earlier, that would be a competitive advantage. A certain point that we want to stress out is that our company has, and we said that many times, but we want to clarify that, that our company has the vast majority in Japanese bit flits, which generally are lighter and more energy efficient. And as a result, we have better footprint. So we expect that when the new regulations for greenhouse gases come to the rest of the January 2023, as it's expected, to play a role in the performance in the classification of the vessels from categories A to E, and the E category vessels will receive a notice that within a year they need to fix certain things, so the B category within three years. I mean, our vessels will be well placed in this list, And so we will maintain the operational advantages that we always had in the past. I don't know if you want to ask me another question on that.

Well, really the question is, and I appreciate that you're in a good position and that your new builds that you have ordered are also in a good position, but when looking at sort of what would be next if you were to order a ship, But yeah, it isn't available to the shipyard. What do you have in mind there? I mean, what is that next generation ship that would, you know, if a yard were to come out with the design, what would check the boxes for you? Is there a particular type of fuel or something?

This is a problem right now. There is no next generation ship available. A lot of stories appearing in the press about what will be the fuel for the next 10 years or 20 years, no one knows. Definitely on tankers, on containers, there are a few options being proposed by the shipyards, which really we don't know which is the medium term or the long term or the short term. So ourselves, we cannot do anything more at this stage than go for phase three new building. whenever it's available. Otherwise, we will concentrate on very modern second-hand ships that are under five years old that will be very close to the upper part of Phase II designs. There's nothing we can do at the moment because really no one knows if this ship will be LNG-powered, if it will be hydrogen, if it will be ammonia. No one has an idea. And the yachts And this is maybe a good point for trade markets. The yachts, they are not really interested to develop such designs for Balkans. So at the moment they concentrate on big container ships that they have big consumption, so VLCCs or bigger ships. And they don't bother yet to develop for the next phase of decarbonization. Basically, you have to remember that the yachts, like ship owners, they've been losing money for a number of years. And first of all, they have to do the change on the bigger ships. They have better levels and new contract levels. And thereafter, they will bother. So I think it will be very difficult to have new buildings with new designs for bulkheads proposed by the yachts this year. If at all we get it, it will be next year at the earliest. So the delivery of bulkheads with different fuels and all these things should not be available before 2025 delivery. So we have to be patient. If we can find a reasonably priced with good delivery date new build of phase 3, we may consider. If we don't find, we will go for very young ships in replacement of our older ships. If we consider that... only alternative fuel to the existing fuel, which is the natural gas, for example, the LNG, and we don't have such solutions in the bulk industry, such solutions may come, let's say, towards the end of this decade. And maybe new fuels like hydrogen or like ammonia could come at the early or mid of the next decade. So basically the next generation ships that are not generally available now are phase three vessels. So this is the only thing that we have and which is pragmatic.

I appreciate that. If I can switch gears for a second on my next question. Obviously, we've seen the spot rates go up. We've talked about that. And there's strong underlying demand. You guys did do some time charters. But still, most things, both for you and elsewhere in the market, tend to be pretty short duration, six to maybe 18 months on the long end. Yeah. But as the market tightens, are you guys beginning to see any lengthening duration in terms of what customers are looking for to sort of perhaps hedge out the risk of a spike or something like that? And really, I ask because I know in the past you guys have done some longer duration deals. So is that something that's materializing at all, and is it something that you would be interested in doing?

You are talking about the longer period charter deals?

Yeah, you know, three years or four, you know, things longer than a year, yeah.

Yeah, for this to happen, for this to happen, we have to be a little bit patient because we had a decent two months, February and April. In between, we had a correction of the market in March. So all we have seen until now was just two good months of freight marketing. February and April. And we continue now in May, the third month of a good trade market. The charters, before they start fixing long-term deals, they have to see the spillover of enthusiasm going on in the forward years. And many of them usually monitor this FFA market. which is not necessarily every shipowner's piece of cake or guidance for long-term business. But the charters, mainly they monitor these things. And as we know, the forward part of those curves is very depressed from the point of view that there is not enough volume to push it up to the proper levels similar levels like 2021, when we know 2022 is supply restricted and the same for 2023. So as we enter into Q3 and Q4, I believe charters will get this feeling that, you know, the commodity prices of today and the value of the dollar and what is happening worldwide with the stimulus package both east and west. We'll keep the market this time higher for a longer period of time. And then we will see the FFA for years start moving to higher levels. And then charters will start asking shifts for three or four or five years. So we have to be patient and have the chips in the spot market to be able to reach that point when charters will decide that, yes, they believe in this market and they start investing into the forward part of the FFA curve. So I think this will happen sometime in the third quarter, personally. But, you know, maybe you will call me optimist. optimism, optimistic. Maybe it happens in Q4. I don't know. But, you know, I mean, a lot depends on those two quarters if we will see the long-period charters. Personally, I believe that because ship owners do not participate in the FFA market, especially for the forward years. I believe that the FFA market is rather constrained and is being exchanged for the forward years between charters and operators, which mostly sit on the same side of the fence usually.

And if that does materialize, that is an area that you guys would

If it doesn't materialize, we have to enjoy the $20,000 a day. Right. No, but if it does, if it happens... If it does, a certain part of the fleet has to go there. Yes, definitely. Yeah. Okay. Perfect. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Thank you. And we'll now take the next question. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Howdy, gentlemen. It's Randy giving to Jefferies. How's it going? Yes, howdy. Good morning. Good morning. Two questions for me. First, you know, clearly your TCE rates increased pretty meaningfully from 12,000 a day in the fourth quarter of 2020 to about 16,000 in 1Q21. So how big of an increase are you expecting in 2Q21?

Look, I mean, the spot market has moved to the levels, you know, $22,000, $23,000 a day. On the caves, it has moved to $40,000 a level. So you should expect that the second quarter PC rate should be a similar increase. You know, we already run 50% of the second quarter, and the fixtures you are doing now will cover the rest of the second quarter. So, I mean, the assumptions are easily to be made. So, I do not want to predict the numbers now, but it's, you know, I mean, you are 50% in the spot market, and one-third of the period shifts on index link, you can run the calculations very easily.

And then it looks like you used half of your $23.5 million ATM program, raising I think it was $12.7 million in recent months. Average price was under $280. So with the ongoing rally now pushing your shares around $4, will you use the remainder of that ATM here in the near term, and what will the primary use of the proceeds be?

Look, a small part of ATM has remained, but we don't know exactly when we will activate this last part. I mean, we always activate it when the company, as we have already indicated, when the company thinks that it's the right pricing. And so we cannot comment on that anymore.

All right.

Well, thanks so much.

That's it for me.

Thank you. As a reminder, if there are any further questions, it's star and 1 on your keypad. There are no further questions coming through, so I'll now hand back to the speakers.

So thank you for attending this Q1 conference forum webinar to discuss our financial results, and we're looking forward to having the same discussion in about three months from now. Thank you to all, and have a nice day.

Thank you. That does conclude the conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.