Sibanye Stillwater Limited

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon and good morning. On behalf of the C-Suite, welcome and thank you for taking time out of your busy schedules. At our 2023 year-end results in February, we made a commitment to focus on our balance sheet. Today I hope you will recognize the tremendous effort from the Sabania Stillwater team in doing just that. And hence the theme of the H1 2024 presentation is reflected in the presentation title and let me read it. It says delivering on our commitment to strengthen the balance sheet while also increasing liquidity. Please take note of our safe harbour statement. The agenda for today includes a brief strategic context that will be led by myself and essentially it all starts and ends in the market and you will see what I'm referring to when we get into that. I will also cover the salient features for the first half of 2024. Charles Carter, our CFO, will then complete the financial review, after which he will hand over to our chief regional officers who will each cover their regions. We have Richard Stewart doing the South African region. We have Mika Seitovirta doing the European region, Charles Carter will do the US region, and Robert Van Niekerk, who's also our chief technical and innovation officer, is also the chief regional officer for Australia, and he will cover the Australian region. So our 3D strategy is well known to the market. There's just a few points that I want to make and I'm not going to go through all the detail on the slide. Our board together with the executive have recently been through an extensive strategic review and we remain confident that our strategy is relevant. and delivering on shared value remains a keen focus for us. Our focus however remains on the strategic essentials, especially through the current commodity price cycle. There are two other things that I want to mention that I think are relevant to the discussion today. Despite the noise that is creeping into the debate regarding the relevance of ESG, we as a company remain steadfast in our view regarding the importance and the relevance of ESG. We believe it's a good business practice and it will remain embedded as the way we do business. I also read much around the issues of diversity. with suggestions that if you go woke, you go broke. And again, I think that's such nonsense. We will continue to drive inclusivity, diversity and belonging as we believe it creates a competitive advantage for a company like ourselves. Just moving on to the strategic context, I want to say that In terms of the metals that we have exposure to, understanding mobility or probably more particularly the evolution of mobility is important to understanding how the green metals could well be used in the future. I think it's important to note that electric power trains are technologically smart and will certainly be the power trains of the future. Within a short period of time, the issues around constraints and negative views of battery electric vehicles will be addressed and there is no doubt in my mind that battery electric vehicles will remain a very significant part of the future global carpool. I think it's also important to note that legislation on its own cannot drive what policy is being implemented in many countries. Consumer preferences and societal patterns will also influence the market and the way cars and power trains operate. are utilized. I think as such, and it's well noted on this slide, powertrains will be an evolving mix of technologies and it will include internal combustion engines for a long period of time still, hybrids, fuel cells, and pure battery electric vehicles. Hydrogen will certainly play a role in power trains, both in fuel cells as well as in direct combustion engines. Synthetic fuels have the potential to extend the era of vehicles with pure internal combustion engines. Our views in this regard have been very consistent and it's amazing to me how the pendulum swings from Extreme positivity of battery electric vehicles to negative views and the same regarding internal combustion engines and PGMs. I think the bottom line is that you need to be on the right side of technology and we have, I believe, good exposure to all the evolving technologies from our metals point of view. We will now move on to just talk a little bit about the markets, specifically PGMs and lithium. Within our C-suite, we have dedicated commodity champions whose responsibility it is to stay abreast of market trends and developments that relate to their and to develop our house views. Richard Stewart is our commodity champion for PGMs and Mika Seitovirta is our commodity champion for battery metals. So at this point, I'm going to hand over to Richard to take us through our house view on PGMs, more specifically platinum and palladium. and after that I'll ask Richard to hand over directly to Mika to cover the lithium market.

Thank you Richard, over to you. Thank you very much Neil and good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. Discussing commodity markets at the moment, I guess many are asking many questions about where these markets are going and PGMs are certainly no exception. The way we look at the markets at the moment to drive our business is really across three different time periods. So we look at a short term, generally less than two years, tactically, how do we respond to the current market? We look at a medium term, generally out to about 10 years, where I think we have some confidence in terms of the way we forecast, and then slightly more speculative beyond 10 years. So certainly our view in terms of the short term and what we're seeing is that there has been a distinct dislocation between the fundamentals that we see. Fundamentally, we believe the 3E metals, PGMs, are very much in deficit and the price trends that we've seen, which of course have been falling a lot faster and a lot further than I think many imagined. Of course, the question is, why is that the case? We don't see a silver bullet or a single reason for this. It really has been a coming together of multitudes of factors. We have mentioned in the past things like destocking. Several OEMs did build up stocks post-COVID and that has been coming out over the last few years, although we do think that that is declining. We have also seen in the market some significant disruptions to supply chains and changes to supply chains, in particular a lot more Russian metal finding its way into China. and then we have some in the PGM market probably about 80% of the metal trades as physical metal under long-term supply agreements with a very small portion trading in the spot market that ultimately sets the price and of course when you have disruptions to supply chains and take some spot buyers out of the market that does have a significant impact. Combine all of that with some negative sentiments around global macroeconomics, BEV growth rates, and essentially what you end up is a highly dislocated market between, let's call it, paper trading and ultimate fundamental or physical trading. When we've seen this in the past, it does tend to come together again, and the more extended the dislocation, the more severe the correction. So our view is that for the next for the short term we do still expect volatility but ultimately we think the fundamentals will come through and therefore there is risk upside for some very rapid reactions and price appreciation as markets continue to tighten. But certainly we are planning for a volatile short-term period. In terms of the medium term we have in fact I think become more robust given what we've seen happening over the last 18 months. Our view on the markets has not materially changed, but because of the lower price environments we've seen, the primary supply coming out of particularly South Africa and North America has in fact declined more than what we originally forecast and we don't see much growth coming out of Russian supply. Similarly, secondary supply we think is going to remain constrained because of both margin pressure as well as supply chain disruptions. And as we've seen demand for in terms of the rates of which BEVs are growing, and they will continue to grow, but just that rate has been moderated. And we think that gap will be filled by CE hybrid vehicles, which is good for both PGMs and battery metals. and taking a combination of that supply pressure and demand moderation in the medium term, we actually think the PGM market remains pretty robust, a view that we have held for an extended period of time. Over the long term, it does become a bit more speculative and we do see structural changes occurring. Today, PGM demand, about two-thirds of it is underpinned by auto catalysts and we see that declining to about 50% out to 2040. The difference in demand will be made up by industrial applications, a significant portion of which will be associated with the hydrogen economy. But of course, there are still many factors that we need to understand and understand how these technologies develop and are taken up before we can get confidence in that forecast. And that drives our long term market development strategy around securing sticky industrial applications to replace largely auto catalyst demand. for the decades to come. So just looking at our overall view of that market, we do model it as a 2E basket, being platinum and palladium, given that they are substitutable. and what you can see in the in the white bars is almost an average of various market research houses which would suggest that we still have deficits up to about 2027 and then moving into surpluses for the factors that we've mentioned above the supply constraints as well as a moderation in terms of battery electric vehicle penetration we in fact see deficits for the balance of this decade only then moving into slight surpluses early in the following decade So overall a robust view for the medium term for PGMs. I'll now hand over to Mika who will discuss lithium markets. Thank you.

Thank you, Richard. A few words about lithium supply and demand balance and the outlook, how we see that. First of all, behind there is obviously the growth of the electric vehicles. Many of us have revised downwards the forecasts and the volumes of the EVs and so have we. Even in the downward scenario though, we believe that during the next five years by 2030, the volumes are going to be double against today's volumes. This is obviously something that is going to impact the lithium demand a lot. So despite of the short-term surplus in the market, we see a very strong outlook long-term for lithium demand. Meaning that actually during the next five years, consequently, we believe that lithium demand is going to double as well. It is also to be noted that the deficit starts 26-27, which is a perfect timing for our Calibre project when we start the commissioning with our own ore. Over to you, Neil.