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2/21/2025
Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening to all the attendees. A warm welcome to our golden circle, and you'll see the relevance of that as I move through our 2024 year-end results, but also note the main heading of the presentation being quantifying the value created from our strategic differentiation. which I will also cover in some detail. Obviously there are forward-looking statements so please take note of our safe harbour statement. If we can go on to the next slide please. I think it's all well known now that Richard Stewart has been appointed as CEO designate and will be taking over from me from September. I am I'm exceptionally pleased with that and would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Richard as well. But the purpose of this slide is also to highlight that apart from the succession planning, which I'm going to get to, we have a very competent and solid C-suite. That's the first point you should note. I think the other thing is a company is all about the people and hence the reason this slide is first. The company is in good hands and I want to say that we have followed a best practice succession planning for myself and in fact it is the same process that we follow for every senior management person within the company and Let me highlight the impact. We've been planning for this transition for probably about two years now. So this is not something that was decided yesterday or last month or even last quarter. Very pleasing to myself, and remember this is a board process when it involves the CEO, is that this is an internal appointment which will result in a smooth transition. and as I've said the comfort I have is we have a very very solid and stable c-suite team. What an internal appointment does as long as you've got ownership of the strategy as it's been developed by both the board and the c-suite is that you have strategic continuity and You are welcome to ask Richard directly what he may be thinking of changing and so on but certainly it's my understanding that we have significant continuity and not only that I think the purpose of the company is we have a c-suite which is committed to the purpose which is underpinned by sustainability and that permeates our entire strategy. So I think a very good and important outcome. If we can move to the next slide, please. Again, I'm not going to go through strategy in detail, but just to say that our strategic positioning and the refocus on the strategic essentials has been validated if you start looking at the trends and the results and I believe that it's appropriate and important to continue focusing on the strategic essentials and what are they? Well it's ensuring safety and well-being It's prospering in every region in which we operate. It's achieving what we call operational excellence, maintaining a profitable business and optimizing capital allocation. And as I mentioned at last year's results, ESG will remain an important part of the way we do business. Thank you. If we can go to the next slide, please. So our vision is to create superior shared value for all stakeholders. And this is new work based on an assessment done by the University of Montana using Implan. And I'm not going to go through the slide in detail, but for those of you who are interested, I would urge you to read it in detail in your own time. If you look at the tree, and as you know, that represents our ethos. We are impacting over 147,000 jobs. In other words, we're supporting 147,000 jobs. That is very, very significant. In terms of economic impacts, we have an impact of 225.9 billion rand. In terms of compensation impacts, R61.3 billion. And in terms of tax impacts, R27 billion. So again, confirmation that we do deliver superior shared value, not just for our shareholders, but for all our stakeholders. Thank you. If we can move on to the next slide. So I would like to just almost skim through the salient features for the six months 2024 and of course it completes the year ended 31 December 2024. So safety continues to improve with the group SIFR and TRIFA at the lowest recorded level since 2013. So in a way, record safety performance. Very pleasingly, net debt to adjusted EBITDA came in at 1.79 times at 31 December 2024. And I want to highlight, this is before accounting for the $500 million stream. And I do remember reading a number of reports which had us well over three times and I will cover the net debt to adjusted EBITDA profile a bit later. Revenue was 7% higher for the second half of 2024 compared to 2023. Group adjusted EBITDA came in at 6.4 billion Rand and that is a stable result for the third sequential six-month period. and I will say more on that. We do note that a number of our peers are now starting to show declining EBITDA numbers where ours have now been stable. We've arrested our decline and I think we can look forward in a more constructive way going forward. I will cover that in more detail as well. Obviously, South African gold underpinned that change and there was a 216% increase in adjusted EBITDA for the second half of 2024. In terms of South African PGMs, I think what was a highlight was a 6% operating cost increase, which is very much in line with inflation and probably below mining inflation. I thought that was a standout result for the South African PGM sector. US PGM, in my mind, had one of the best performances within the group with a successful restructuring at the end of 2024. and throughout the year, consistent production and a 27% reduction in all in sustaining costs. There's still some way to go. We're not confused by the very good progress made and we know there's still a lot of hard work, but the light is at the end of the tunnel. There was a $32 million or 594 million contribution to the group suggested EBITDA in 2024 from our recycling business in the US again quite significant and in the Australian region we had a 34 million dollar or 641 million rand contribution in 2024 from the century operation so to me those are those are good results um Considering the current commodity price climate, and I'm referencing PGMs in that regard, obviously not gold, but a difficult operating environment where I would suggest we've arrested and turned a corner. If we can go to the next slide, please. So I would like to actually demonstrate in a factual way what the value that has been created by taking what we consider the roads less traveled, probably more complicated, certainly more controversial, but not controversial to be controversial, and more complex, absolutely. So if we can go to the next slide. So as everybody on this call would know, we are driven or our strategy is defined by understanding the grey elephants which we've presented previously. I'm not going to go through them, but the one that was influential In driving the diversification of the company into a green metals portfolio company was that one of the Angry Planet. And we've often presented the sigmoid curves on the right hand side of the slide, which indicate growth from a gold base. through South African PGMs, internationalizing the company in the US through PGMs and then slowly but surely moving in into battery metal. So that's well understood. But we've also for some time been talking about responsible resource stewardship. and you can't be environmentally responsible if you are not sensitive to primary mining, secondary mining and recycling and we have very consciously been building those portfolios within our business and I want to show you they have become significant businesses and contributing quite significantly to the bottom line. but I will do that in the next couple of slides. Importantly we have always maintained that having an underlying portfolio of gold is an insurance policy when you have a large portfolio of industrial metals and you move into an environment, a global economic environment that is difficult with high interest rates, high inflation and so on. And it's become very evident in our business how that insurance policy of gold is working. If we can go to the next slide, please. So they say a picture paints a thousand words and this is our adjusted IBADAR slide from 2017 and I just want to work through it and then make some conclusions. We were a gold business, predominantly a gold business. You can see how that gold business supported the investment into PGMs and the contribution by PGMs was relatively small. But you can see as we moved into 2018, how the Stillwater or the US PGM business actually carried the company through a very difficult time. Themba George Nkosi Thank you very much. carried this company to new heights and how gold was a very much smaller portion of the contribution because of the very good PGM basket prices of the time. We also used, and to be fair to our gold division, we used our gold division to ensure that if there was to be any sort of strife in wage negotiations and unrealistic demands, that the brunt of that would be carried in the gold business because it was a relatively small contributor. But of course, that created the impression today that the gold business is not a contributor of any substantial amount to our business. And in fact, we often get questions, why don't you get rid of it? Well, you're going to see why not shortly. So then as the PGM basket price fell off, especially in dollar terms and especially regarding palladium you can see how the South African PGM business carried the company forward through 2023 but you can now start seeing in 2024 how the relative portion of gold in terms of the contribution to our earnings has increased and The two bars on the very right hand side show the second half of 2023 and the second half of 2024 in terms of the contribution of gold and one of the outstanding features of The second half of this year is that our gold business is really contributing and we look forward to it contributing. And I think the other thing to note from this is how our earnings have stabilized, even though we have got decreasing PGM basket prices. So that's a That's a story. That's the picture that I referred to. If we can go to the next page, please. So not only has commodity diversification created value and assisted the company through, let me say, difficult times. Our move into tailings reprocessing and recycling has also become a very significant contributor. And if you look at our secondary mining business, it has become a big business by mining standards, generating revenues of over 11 billion, a 10.1% contribution to the group, and from an adjusted EBITDA point of view, contributing 3.2 billion, which is a 24% So to me, that is smart strategic growth, especially in a complex environment with so many changes. If we go to the next slide and look at recycling, again, we've only really started to move into recycling More recently, other than the PGM recycling or the catalytic converter recycling in the US. But if you look at it today, a revenue of 14 billion Rand for 2024, just over 10% contribution to group revenue and 4.5% contribution to to adjusted EBITDA of R594 million or $32 million. So again, these businesses will continue to grow. We can do them in an affordable way and they improve our flexibility through down cycles and so on. Next slide, please. So the other area of our strategy that to some extent is has not been seen to really add value. But I want to demonstrate it is that that relates to multipolarity, which we identified even before COVID, the world was going to de-globalize. You've had to choose which way you face, which market you're going to prioritize. And we've prioritized The Western Markets, and let's have a look how we've been rewarded for that. So you can read the slides in detail at your leisure, but in North America, the Section 45 credits that are not reflected in these financial results yet. have delivered very significant credits or will deliver very significant tax credits in cash of approximately $2.2 billion and $1.6 billion for 2023 and 2024 respectively. That's $120 million and $90 million respectively for both mining and recycling. Our estimate of the value of the credits for 2025 based on the recently restructured Stillwater operations is about a billion Rand or $60 million. That is I think our awards for being loyal to providing strategic metals in the US and I'm not sure where else you would have got that type of value addition anywhere else in the world other than in Europe of course which is similar to the US in that it is dependent on strategic metals and in France we've been very well received by the French government and in advancing the GALICAM feasibility study we've been selected for a grant and please remember this is a grant not a credit of 2.8 billion rand once we have a financial investment decision when we have completed that feasibility study. And we are eligible for what they call the C3 IV tax credit for green industry innovation. So that's another value In addition, we have the Finnish government through FMG, the Finnish minerals group, as a 20% co-investment partner in Kelibus. So in my mind, those are very tangible Themba George Nkosi, Melanie Naidoo-Vermaak, At our mid-year results in 2023, we actually shared with you how we were going to proactively respond to what we saw as a deteriorating environment. And those of you who attend these presentations will remember when the Ukraine was invaded, we already raised the issue of an environment that was going to become inflationary and started preparing ourselves. If we can just build the slide to the next portion. You would also remember at a results presentation we used a piggy bank to indicate that we were going to save money in a piggy bank and prepare and strengthen our balance sheet and I think I recognized there was some amusement and probably some skepticism to us actually being able to do that. To protect your balance sheet not only do you have to raise money but you've also got to make sure that negative outflows that weakened the balance sheet to our address and we moved into a number of restructurings both in the South African region and in the US. The US went through two and in Sandoval we terminated the Boliden contract and started moving accelerating our nickel sulfate concept studies which then transitioned into the Gallicam studies going straight to PCAM. In terms of reinforcing the balance sheet in 2024, and I'll discuss more about this, we embarked on a number of programs and I'm not going to go through them all, Probably the most significant one was the stream, but in effect we raised R35.8 billion. We improved liquidity by that amount. To be safe and prudent, we had our covenants uplifted just to give us some headroom in case we were not successful with this. But all these initiatives have had a major positive impact on the company and its current positioning. And I'm going to show you that in the next slide. So in terms of, let's focus on the graph on the right hand side and I'll come back to the bullet points on the left. So in terms of net debt to EBITDA and our gearing, you can see how from 2018, from two and a half in fact, came down to being net cash and then moved up and the actual number, as I said, was 1.79. But if you include the stream, Our pro forma net debt to EBITDA is below 1.1 now. Now I dare say that is lower than most of our PGM peers. And I say that and reinforce it because there was a lot of skepticism that we would not be able to keep our leverage below three times. So I trust that You know, in future, when we say we're going to embark on these sort of programs, we will be given more credibility for achieving them. But I also want to acknowledge in a way that it's difficult for analysts to, let's say, know all the forms of funding that we can use. And I know it's complex for them to value and include. But we're not a one-trick pony. We know and we have experience of raising non-debt. We have experience of using structures such as streams. We have experience of analyzing these and fully understanding the negative and the positives of each form of structure. and we made a commitment we would not use equity we would not lean on our shareholders and we have not and for that I am first of all very pleased but also very proud. We've retained upside exposure to prices we haven't we haven't locked ourselves into anything as I said we secured 36 billion of financing in 12 months We have started well ahead of our peers. I would suggest that debt and non-debt funding is going to get more difficult and more expensive. We have, as I said, accessed non-traditional sources of capital early, and I think that is an exceptional result for a company like ourselves. Next slide, please. So just a little bit on the stream because I've also read the reports about giving away upside and that's not really true. So we've crystallized $9 billion in future value. As you can see, it's had a very significant impact on headroom and liquidity. It's almost a one times turn in reducing leverage. In fact, it's 0.7. And important to note that that $500 million stream or 9.4 billion Rand stream is 44% of our total acquisition costs of our South African PGM assets. 44% of what we paid, we've raised in one stream. Now let's understand what that stream is. It's primarily a stream based on gold byproducts in PGMs, which we get practically no value for. In terms of the impact on platinum, there's a little bit of platinum stream. It's less than 2% of our platinum. Now, remember, this is less than 2% for a 44% return on what we paid for these assets. So now starts putting it in context. In terms of the process you have to go through with a streamer such as Franco Nevada, they conduct Themba George Nkosi It was at competitive costs, much lower than you can get through, let's call it vanilla financing instruments. There's no repayment of the advance payment and there's no minimum delivery obligations. So this is an exceptional instrument for raising money and has served us well. The last thing I'm going to say is please, when you look at this table in detail, Just note the payback on investments we've achieved from these purchases. You know, something like Lonman, we've paid for 12.7 times over. So to me, all very good news. Thank you, Enrique, if you could. So at this stage, I'm going to hand over to the chief regional officers to present a detailed operational review. So Richard will be first up. So over to you, Richard.
Thank you. Good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you very much, Neil. I think if we start off with our safety, as a company, we are now three years into our fatal elimination strategy. This has been a strategy that is very much focused on identifying and mitigating the highest risk areas of our business that could result in fatals. It's very pleasing that we can see a consistent decline in terms of those lagging indicators. Looking at our top two, our serious injury frequency rates and our total recordable injury frequency rates, we've seen a consistent 15 to 16% decline in those rates over the last three years. And in fact, 2024 was the best results we've ever achieved. Looking at our lagging indicators, which tracks our high potential incidents, and that includes incidents where we didn't necessarily suffer an injury but it could have resulted in a serious injury or loss of life. We've also seen those incidents substantially reduce year on year and in fact month on month, demonstrating the real risk reduction across our operations. Nevertheless, despite an improving trend as well across our fatality frequency rate, It is deeply disappointing and tragic that we lost eight colleagues during 2024 and our sincere condolences go to the families, colleagues and friends of our fallen comrades. We will not stop until as a company and we do believe that we can mine labour intensive operations without loss of life and this will remain our deepest commitment until such time as we achieve that. We are at a critical juncture in our faith elimination journey where our focus to date has largely been on identifying the risks, putting the controls in place to mitigate those risks and embedding that throughout the organization. We are now moving to a point where we are deeply focused on behavior and ultimately how we want to drive our culture through our management routines and our leadership, ultimately underpinned by the values of the company. and our value-based behaviour. Moving on to our gold operations. I think when we look at the first half of 2024 in particular, it was a very tough operating environment for our gold operations. In addition to the regional restructuring that we were doing across the region, which did have significant disruption on operations, we also had several one-off incidents in the event of infrastructure failures that impacted some of our shafts We had some increased seismicity during the first half of the year and then also stopped the significant portion of the Beatrix operation following a backbreak so that we could redesign that mining method, ensuring we were not placing any employees at risk. I think very pleasingly during the second half of the year we saw much more stable and solid performance from our gold operations as they settled down. The benefits of the restructuring we started realizing albeit many of the costs still carried through into the second half of the year and together with an increase in gold price that saw second half EBITDA of about three and a half billion rand which contributed just over half of the total group's EBITDA earnings for the period. For the year as a whole, our gold operations contributed just under 6 billion rands worth of EBITDA, a substantial increase from the prior period. Looking forward, with our gold operations settled, with the benefits of the restructuring coming through, and a sustained increase in gold price that today is some 20% higher than what it was last year, we are very much looking forward to a continued positive output from our operations into 2025. Moving on to our SAP GM operations, we saw an annual increase of just over 4% at our operations, and these were largely steady year on year. That increase largely came from the additional consolidation of the 50% of Krindal that we acquired from Anglo Platinum during the year. and that was slightly offset by some operational disruptions we had at Rustenburg most notably the shaft burn failure at Sipumaleli which took that shaft out for almost two months and the two weeks worth of disruptions we had at Kruendal as a result of illegal industrial action. Nevertheless I think the costs were well managed particularly in the second half of the year we saw a decline in our operating costs from H1 and year-on-year an inflation-related increase, operating costs just over R23,500 per four-year ounce. Our total all-in-sustaining costs increased to just under R22,000 per four-year ounce, and that was a 9% year-on-year increase. I think some key drivers to that is the transition at Kerndahl from a purchase of concentrate to a tolling arrangement. that took place from the 1st of September last year and effectively for those four months saw us incurring tolling costs but of course that also comes with full exposure to the PGM basket price. 16% decline in the PGM basket price year-on-year did have a significant impact on the EBITDA from these operations and we saw that declining by just under 60% to R7.5 billion for 2024. Important to note that during the four months at Kroendal we did not recognize any revenue or earnings for that period out of Kroendal given that we are building up the four months pipeline associated with the totaling contract. So that metal will be returned to us from January of this year and recognized as revenue upon sale of that metal as we move forward. If we have a look at where our current PGM operations across the group are positioned on the cost curve and we do utilize the Nedbank cost curve in this regard. It's both an independent source but also looks at total operating costs as well as capital and therefore is probably the closest reflection to an all-in sustaining cost that we see across the industry. Looking at this, most of our operations are comfortably positioned on the left-hand side of that curve or just above the 50th percentile except for the Marikana operations where we are heavily investing through the cycle in our K4 project. The K4 capital or project capital largely comes to an end at the end of this year 2025 and we look forward to the following years with reduced capital and continued and sustained ramp up in metal output will ultimately see the Morricano operations moving down into the second quartile and therefore a very well positioned portfolio across the global industry cost curve. I think finally, on Wednesday of this week, we did announce a new agreement that we have entered into with the Glencore Morafi Venture. This is a significant step for us in terms of our strategy of optimizing value from our byproducts, of which chrome is a critical one. That strategy really goes to diversification of the PGM basket. and enhances our resilience during times like this when PGM prices are low, but many of the other metals, in this case chrome, are doing significantly well. Underneath this revised, what we call in the CMA, the Chrome Management Agreement, the Glencore-Morafi JV will take over operatorship of all or most of our chrome recovery plants. And through that, we look to realize significant operational synergies through a one-owner operator So cost synergies in terms of operating costs, as well as the ability for the joint venture to apply their knowledge, expertise, IP and technology to enhancing our overall recovery of chrome from those facilities, including the recovery of fine chrome. I think two other significant benefits to the chrome management agreement. Many of you would be aware that historically Lonman signed a long-term off-take contract with what was then Extrata, subsequently Glencore, under which Marikana received very low values, less than 10% of the market-related value for its chrome. This particular contract would have run until about 2060 under the current terms. Under the new management agreement we have been able to accelerate the delivery into that through the synergies that we expect to realize and on the back of the current life of mine profile would expect that contract although the the Morricana contract to come to an end around about 2033 after which Morricana will receive market related prices for their chrome output. In addition, as part of the agreement, we have agreed that any new projects that come online on the Morricona property may be ring fenced if required and therefore receive full market value for their chrome, even if developed prior to 2033. In particular, we have three projects, three shallow UG2 mechanized projects, therefore low cost, very low capital intensity, given that they are brownfields projects that we are progressing through a feasibility study. And this agreement certainly adds significant value to those for those to be brought online at an appropriate time, given the current PGM markets. but I dare say these are three of the most attractive projects within the industry at the moment and this agreement has just further enhanced that value quite materially. Thank you very much and I'll now pass over to Charles to discuss the US operating region. Thank you.
Thank you, Richard. We have done two rounds of significant restructuring on the Montana operations in the fourth quarter of 2023 and again in the fourth quarter of 2024. If I reflect on the first round of restructuring that drove our operating plan through the year until our second restructuring that disrupted the fourth quarter production, we delivered mined 2E production, which was stable at 425,842 ounces. We saw a 27% decline in ASIC to 1,367. Total operating costs reduced 4% to 480 million. We saw a combined reduction of $191 million in capital with a 50% reduction in ORD and a 72% reduction in sustaining capital. Project capital declined by 62% to $16 million. We also saw the average 2E PGM basket price decline by 21% to $988 an ounce through the year. This persistent low price pressure led us to a further substantial restructuring during the fourth quarter of 2024. As you are aware, we have reduced our mine production by 200,000 ounces in the 2025 plan. We placed Stillwater West Mine on care and maintenance. We increased production from our higher grade Stillwater East Mine to 130,000 ounces. and we reduced production from our East Boulder mine to 135,000 ounces by moving from six ramps to four, which in turn allowed us to push out our capital on our tailings and rock dump expansion plans. In the process, we reduced our workforce by 636 employees and contractors, a reduction of almost 40%. These changes have significantly reduced our cash bleed Although given the significant reduction in ounces, you will see that our ASIC on a unit basis is forecast at $1,420 an ounce to $1,460 an ounce in 2025. Any future booking of the 45X tax credit has the potential to reduce this ASIC forecast by $30 million or approximately $100 an ounce. Given that the 45X rules are retrospective, We are expecting that combined credits for 2023 and 2024 financial years are estimated at approximately $120 million combined. As noted at the time of our restructuring in our last market presentation, we have a three-year game plan to move these operations to $1,000 an ounce cost character. As you will have seen in the industry cost curve slide covered by Richard, We are now in the middle of the pack, whereas a year ago we were the highest cost producer in the industry. Our aim is to shift to the lowest quartile over time, and I believe that we are well on the way in that journey. We set ourselves a three-year game plan to hit the $1,000 an ounce, and obviously where we can bring that forward and accelerate it, we will seek to achieve that. Certainly from December, we started hitting our answer cost targets according to the run rates we have in the 2025 plan. And we have continued this through January. Most pleasingly, we were injury free through December and January in the Montana business. And this is a first for these operations. Given the amount of change we have been through, I think this talks to the character, commitment and professionalism of our employees. And I'd like to thank all team members for leading in safety in this way. With that, let me hand off to Grant to cover our recycling business. We have seen an excellent integration of Railden into our North American recycling platform during the course of the year. Over to you, Grant.
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