Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd

Good afternoon, everyone. This is Park Cheol-woo in charge of IR.

I thank everyone for joining us at this SFG 2023 Q3 earnings presentation. Today, I'm joined by the Group CFO, Lee Tae-kyung, the main presenter. Group CDO, Kim Young-hee, Group CSSO, Ko Seok-heon, Group CRO, Bang Dong-kwon, Sinan Bank CFO, Kim Ki-heung, Sinan Card CFO, Kim Nam-joon, Sinan Investment Security CFO, Lee Hee-dong, and Sinan Life CFO, Park Gyeon. We will first present the group's business results in Q3 2023, followed by the Q&A session. And now, I invite the CFO, Lee Tae-kyung, to present the group's business results in Q3 2023. Good afternoon. This is CFO Lee Tae-kyung of Shinhan Financial Group. Let me thank everyone for participating at our Q3 2023 earnings conference call despite your busy schedule. I will first go through our business highlights from page 5 of the slides. Page 5. We have maintained steady operating income through Q3 2023. Net income was 1.1921 trillion won down 46.2 billion QOQ. There was recognition of one-off costs such as investment-related provisioning in Xinhan Securities. Non-interest income fell from Q2 owing to decrease in securities-related income resulting from market volatility. but fee income is growing evenly across the different items. The group's cost-income ratio was 39.2%, slightly up YOY, but excluding ERP cost, it fell slightly. Provision for credit loss fell QOQ by 81.1 billion. Credit cost ratio was 50 BP, increasing YOY, but falling QOQ. Last, the group's board resolved on the 25th on 525-1 in dividend per share in Q3 and 100 billion-1 in share buyback and cancellation in Q4. It brings the group's total resolution on share buyback and cancellation to 500 billion-1 in 2023. Thank you. Looking ahead, we will continue with sustainable capital and shareholder return policy as we try to secure capital adequacy in response to changes in capital regulations. Page 6 is on the group's major business highlights, and page 7 shows the group's net income and income indicators provided for your information. Moving on to page 8 on the group's income breakdown. Page 8 on the group's interest income. Interest income in Q3 2023 was 2.7633 trillion won, up 2.6% QOQ. It is attributable to growth in interest-bearing assets and business days, despite the fall in the group's margin by 1 BP. In Q3, the bank's NIM was 1.63%, down 1 BP QOQ, due to loan growth primarily in high-quality assets and preemptive funding. The bank's loan assets grew 1.1% in Q3 following the 0.7% in the first half. Retail loan fell 2.5% from the end of last year owing to slowing demand for credit loan from tightening rates and DSR regulations as well as securitization of mortgages. Corporate loan grew 5.5% from the end of last year on the back of continued demand from large companies and quality SMEs. Please refer to page 33 for more details. Page 9 is on Sinan Bank's loan asset growth, funding and margin, provided for your reference. Next, page 10 on non-interest income. The group's non-interest income fell 11.6% QOQ despite growth in fee income and insurance income due to lower securities-related income. Insurance income grew 4.2% QOQ resulting from the increase in CSM amortization from improvement in insurance sales. Next is on fee income breakdown. Credit card fee was up 52.8% QOQ driven by growth in credit card purchases and other fees. Brokerage fee was 8.3% on the back of increased stock trading. But IB fee fell 36.6% QOQ despite the growth in underwriting fee resulting from more brisk DCM sales due to reduced real estate PF and financing arrangement fee. Page 11 includes an income for your reference purposes.

Page 12 is for groups for credit losses. GMA costs increase 4.3% and reclassification of service accounts. Groups CIR on an accumulated basis edged up slightly to 39.2% QOQ, but when excluding ERP costs, Groups CIR was 38.2% down 0.3% point. Groups Q3 provision for credit losses due to declining additional counter-cyclical provisioning fell 14.7% QOQ. Groups recurring provision decreased 8.1 billion 1 QOQ. Shinhan Bank, with the end of corporate credit rating season, its recurring provision fell by 71.1 billion won. Shinhan Card, with long end of September holidays shortening payment cycle, its recurring provision increased by 79.7 billion won. As for the leading indicator of credit cost ratio, that is the frequency rate, The bank's delinquency rate affected by higher interest rates and unfavorable economic conditions continues an upward trend, yet compared to pre-COVID levels in Q3 2019, the absolute delinquency rate still remains low. Through write-offs, delinquency rate remains flat at 0.27%. As for Shenankar, due to write-offs, delinquency rate dropped to 1.35%, but the leading indicator of delinquency, two-month delinquency migration rate, went up . From page 13 to 15, information on groups' GME expenses, credit cost ratio, asset quality, and real estate PF has been included with further details for your reference. From page 16, SFG income by subsidiary will be explained. As for SHB, higher interest rate than FX rate lowered non-interest income while ERP raised GMA expenses. Nevertheless, interest income rose and provisions declined, resulting in an overall increase in net income QOQ. As for non-bank subsidiaries, Shinhan Card, despite increasing provisioning but boosted by operating income growth, kept its net income flat QOQ. For Shinhan Securities, rising interest rates and falling stock prices resulted in sluggish top trading income and reflecting recognition of provisioning for investment products related costs, its net income dropped significantly QOQ. As for Shinhan Life, improved insurance sales led to increasing CSM amortization, which led to increasing insurance service income, but due to higher interest rates, insurance finance income decreased, thereby reducing net income QOQ. As for Shinhan Capital, interest expenses increased, but with decrease in provisioning, its net income grew QOQ. Page 17 shows SFG income by subsidiaries, and page 18 shows SFG overseas business for your information. Page 19, Capital Management and Key Profitability Indicators. At the end of September, CET1 ratio is expected to decrease 9 BP to 12.90% provisionally. This is due to higher FX rates and loan growth resulting in the growth of RWA. As for our digital strategy outline in page 21, CDO Kim Myung-hee will take the floor. Good afternoon. I am CDO Kim Yong-hee. Regarding Q3 2023, I will address you on how the Group aims to strengthen its fundamentals for its digital transformation. To begin, Group's digital strategy framework with six key customer-centric priorities and their key performance has been described on the left. As for SFG's financial and non-financial platform, its gross MAU is $24.42 million, up 16% year-on-year. Financial platform, DAU, is 5.13 million, indicating the platform evolving into a high-traffic site. As for new digital business expansion, data sales business generated 15.5 billion won in revenue, which is 28% growth year-on-year. Such results and customer value creation are enabled by four key core competencies, which I will explain. First, strengthening data competencies. The group is working to understand its customers' financial life thoroughly and extensively by scaling up data collaboration with various industries, which is leading to growth in data business. In addition, data contests for university students and other data-driven CSR initiatives are also taking place continuously. Next is technology. Group is strategically tapping into cloud to drive infrastructure improvement, open development environment, and open source software usage. This will enhance access to new digital technologies and improve service development as well as operational efficiency. Next, process innovation. Enabled by digital technology, we're optimizing operational processes and enhancing employee productivity across the entire group. We're expanding no-code into business units while renewing our groupware to innovate the way we work. Last part is the people domain, talent development. Group, in order to qualitatively expand and qualitatively grow digital talent, has established a common group-wide competency system based on which a customized HRD program for employees is operated. SFG will continue to strengthen its fundamentals to enhance customer value. Thank you. Thank you, CDO Kim, for your presentation. Starting with page 22 onwards, information on the group's ESG initiatives, detailed data by group and key subsidiaries, as well as key management indicators, have been explained for your reference. This concludes the presentation. We will now start the Q&A. Thank you.

Thank you, and now we will take your questions. If you have any questions, please use the raise hand function in Zoom. And for your information, if you ask the question in English, then it will be interpreted consecutively. So please, I ask for your patience while the consecutive interpretation is underway.

And now let us wait for questions.

Once again, if you have any questions, please use the raise hand function on Zoom. The first question is by Mr. Seoryungjin from SK Securities. Please go ahead with your question. Thank you very much for taking my question. This is about provision. Now, regarding the credit loan, I understand that there were some talks about adjusting LGD value, and then also in the fourth quarter, also for the collateralized loan, and I understand that there were talks about adjusting the LGD value. So if you could explain a bit further. Thank you very much for the question. Please, I ask for your patience as we prepare for the response. Thank you very much. So this was about provisioning, yes, in third quarter about the credit LGD. What we provisioned for credit LGD, then there is $26 billion for the bank, and then also smaller amounts for other subsidiaries. So that was the impact. And then also for the non-recurring, then not for the credit LGD, but then for retail, and also for the SOHO model, then that was about $21.8 billion won. So then that was also included. So in total, it was $55.1 billion won. And therefore, the fourth quarter, the collateral loan, LGD, we would have to do some more calculation. But then the expectation now is that it will be around $100 billion won.

Thank you for the response. We'll take the next question from Hankook Investment Securities, Paektusan. Please go ahead, sir. Hello, I am from Korea Investment Security, Spectre Sun. I have a question regarding capital ratio and also related to the capital growth. As a growth, especially if you look at the bank loans, there's a lot of demand for lending, but our capital ratio due to higher interest rates is in a very tight position. However, we still need to increase TSR in terms of the capital ratio and also considering the TSR in Q4 or maybe next year. What are your growth targets? Or in order to achieve your growth targets, what are the current plans that you have in place? Thank you very much, Mr. Beck. And while we prepare for the response, if you could just hold on, we would appreciate that. Thank you. Yes, for the capital ratio and also for the asset growth and TSR, shareholder returns. So the question was dealing with all three different elements here. So at the beginning of the year, CET1 target was 12%, and we raised that to 13%. And we're going to achieve that by the end of the year, the 13%. And the effort is underway. So currently it's 12.9%. And in order to achieve 13%, of course, we have to grow our asset. So we have to look at actual demand. At the same time, because there are economic uncertainties, we have to focus on high-quality corporate loans that has been increasing. And in order to maintain 30%, RWA is continuing to increase. And next year as well, the 30% target is going to be maintained. And if you go with that as planned, next year's net income We will have to allocate, for example, organically to RWA, and we will also have to think about how we go about doing the TSR. At the beginning of the year, we said the TSR is within the 30% to 40%. We have to take into account, of course, the economic uncertainty relative to environment, and that continues so. The stands are maintained, and the stands will continue on into the next year, and that is how we're going to allocate. But even for the RWA, because we don't want to erode into the capital. We want to look at profitability, not only the short term but over the long term. We'll focus a lot on profitability so we can sustain our growth and we'll try to allocate more into those industries and areas and businesses that could bring us more profitability so that we continue to keep our commitment. Thank you.

Thank you very much for your response.

And now, yes, we'll take the next question. From Tension Securities, it is Park Hyejin. Please go ahead with your question. Thank you. I am Park Hyejin from Tension Securities. I have two questions. The first is about the funding costs. It seems as if the funding cost pressure continues. So in Q4 and then also in 2024, what is the company's outlook for NIMs? The second question is, I'm asking this because I'm ignorant about this, and that's about the securities and also the provision and then also the one-off costs, if you could also expand a bit further. Then in Q4, so there is also going to be valuation on the non-market assets. And now because of the overseas situation, then what is the company's projection for like losses or what is the overall projection? Thank you. So there have been overall three questions, so I ask for your patience as we prepare for the response.

Thank you very much. So there were three questions.

First will be answered by the bank CFO, followed by the security CFO, and then the third question will be answered by the CRO. Now first, from Sinan Bank. Good afternoon. This is Kim Ki-hoon from Sinan Bank. Thank you very much for the very good question. So now then for Q4 and 2024 NIM outlook. Now in Q3, looking at the NIM then, then we see that it fell by 1 BP QOQ. So looking at just Q3 then, now in Q4, then we see that the funding would be concentrated by the commercial banks in Q4. So that is why we went into preemptive funding in Q3. So then looking at the funding outlook, cost rate, then that was also affected by that. And then also in terms of the loan, then now because of the competition in the interest, now we were thinking that we would be able to maintain this, but then now we ended up with one BP lower in Q3. Now looking ahead to Q4 then, now some of the high interest deposits that we had acquired in the past, now they are nearing the maturity. So then We believe that afterwards, then the funding rate is going to improve. So then there is going to be improvement in the NIM with the projection of a very cautious 1 to 2 BP. Then looking ahead to next year. Now in Q4, the NIM this year was the highest in Q4. Then now looking at the interest rate next year, then we believe that the benchmark rate is going to remain frozen for some time. And so looking at the overall situation, then the NIM next year is likely to be largely flat from this year. Again, that is our cautious outlook for next year. Thank you, and now this is the Xinhan Security CFO, Yi Xidong. Now your question about the one-off cost, well, we're reflected in this quarter, one-off cost. Now that is from the August decision about the Gen 2 fund. And now what we had, decided on the private cancellation was line, and then, so that was about $1,400 billion. And then for this time, the provision this time was for Gen 2, and that's a pre-tax, $119 billion. So now regarding this provisioning, Now, in the past, the Financial Supervisory Commission's Dispute Settlement Committee, now they have come up with the ratio of settlement, and we have also applied that this time. And, of course, in the process of settlement then whether it is going to so it will be determined throughout the negotiation but then there is the projected numbers and then also the percentage that is expected for gen 2 so we combine them as the one of course in the past quarter so now in to the future then in the course of settlement then we are going to compare between these two assets and book them accordingly Thank you. And then also for your further information, now in the early part of the year, in January, in February, I have also explained about the investor-related products and then also about the Gen 2 and also the other small value funds. And then the remaining is about... So you could take it as a part of what we had already explained in the early part of the year. Thank you. And now this is the group CRO, Hwang Dong Kwon. And about the, so I would take it that this question is about the overseas real estate. Now, first of all, about the status. Now, for the group, then, our overseas real estate is about 4 trillion won in holding. And to be more specific, about 60% is in North America. And also by purposes, then office or residential, that's about 65%. Awesome. substandard is about 160 billion won so about 4% so slightly higher than the other invested assets in Korea so having said that now we have done an all count in the second half of the year and since the insurance company has the highest holding they have conducted inspection of the potentially distressed assets. And then now next week, so we believe that we need to take a look into the bottom 10% assets. So then next month, then we would be again conducting onset inspections across two geographies next month. So then in preparation against potential losses, we will continue to closely monitor the overall situation. Thank you. And for information, yes, of course, we would be working together with outside organizations to conduct additional evaluation. And it is too early for us to tell you about the total size, but then we are going to update them in terms of the evaluation, and that would be reflected into our fourth quote. Thank you.

From HSBC, Won Jae Yong will ask a question. Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions. First is that unlike the anticipation, in terms of the corporate lending increase, I think CET1, you were able to defend quite effectively. So the movements, can you explain about the movements between the previous quarter and this quarter in relation to the CET1? Second, and I think the new capital method was used for insurance. Did that lead to any changes in terms of the P&L? Thank you very much for the question. I will try to put together the response. Yes, first question was related to CET1 and movement, and the second is related to the insurance calculation method. As for the CET1, on a QOQ basis, you can refer to the slide, I'm outlining page 19, RWA. Increased to $700 billion. Credit, $300 billion. And market, $0.4 trillion down. And in terms of the operation RWA, it increased by $0.8 trillion. And as for the declines over here for the market RWAs, I will just read this for you. ELS volatility increased and the bond positioning going up, but the bond-related duration went down, which led to the current. And not only for the RWE, but for the CET1. It's been a drop in CE2. As you can see from the graph, this is because 39 VP due to the net income and 12 VP came down due to the TSP. And now the V-Ray, 32 VP down and TSP, 12 VP and OCA changes, 4 VP change or reduction was made. Our CFO from the insurance side will answer. Thank you very much for the question. IFRS 17 guideline, this is related to the actual loss, medical cost, which has been reflected in Q3 performance. As for the overall guidelines, it really does not have a lot of implications on our insurance. The reason we decided to reflect it in Q3, because a total 100 billion won improvement was achieved. And also in terms of the P&L, maybe $3 billion, when in terms of the losses, which is quite minimal. So really haven't had a lot of changes in terms of the P&L as a result of the progressive med-side application. Thank you very much. We don't have any more questions, so we'll wait until more questions come through. If you have any questions, you can raise your hand on Zoom. Those of you who are delivering the questions in English, there will be consecutive interpretation provided afterwards. So while the interpreter takes the floor, please wait until the interpretation is finished.

We'll wait for more questions. Thank you. Now it is Mr. Seong Tae-joon from Uanta Securities.

Please go ahead, sir. Good afternoon. I am Seong Tae-joon from Uanta Securities. Thank you very much for taking my questions. My question is on dividend. Now recently, no, actually this year, early this year, you have also revised the articles. And now then, what is your guidance about the shareholder return policy? Thank you. Please wait for a while as we prepare for the response. Thank you. So that is about the closing of the shareholder register. And we were preparing to communicate about this, even if there were no questions about this. So as you have mentioned earlier, so we have changed the AOI at the end of the meeting. in the early part of the year and so now the dividend is not going to be at the year end but that should be resolved at the board and not just for the group but then for the subsidiaries and also by the other listed companies as well so then it is going to be determined at the general shareholders meeting and then so we revised the AOI in accordance to that so then afterwards We will be paying off the dividend not always at the end of the year, but then. determined by the BOD. And so the direction now is that perhaps after the general shareholders meeting. So not right after the GSM, but then perhaps one or two days afterwards. So that is our direction as we have discussed so far, but it has not been finalized yet. So that is the direction of the discussion. And once we make the decisions, then we will make sure that they are duly communicated and disclosed at the end of the year. Thank you very much. We will take the next question.

Thank you for the opportunity. This was included in the slide, but you didn't mention this. This is related to real estate PF. The slide clearly shows wrong information, but on the news, it seems that a lot of media coverage is actually focused on any companies that are in distress. So what's the current situation right now, especially the creditors group? They're quite strong, and also there's an influence coming from the government policies as well. So what's the current level right now, and especially between this year and next year, do you foresee any difficulties going forward, and how do you plan on responding to them? So if you could talk about your future risk management policy, we would appreciate that. And we know that you had a lot of provisioning for credit losses this year. What is the target for provisioning this year, year end? And since we had the provisioning in place and also considering the risk factors next year, is that going to continue to go up or is it going to come down? So in terms of the credit loss provisioning, if you could provide us with a yearly guidance. The last question. is that among the top banking groups uh you did quarterly dividend payout continuously so can we expect that as well next year is that going to continue for the quarterly dividend so thank you very much uh joel there were three questions from you and we will now put together our response So a few questions here. First is the real estate PF. Our CFO will answer, and for the last remaining two questions, I will try to address them. CRO, please take the floor. Hello, I am Bang Min-Seop from the CRO. So as is mentioned in the slide, the PF included bridge loan is $9.1 trillion. in terms of the delinquency that's about 1.4 per 1.4 percent substandard and below is about two percent however if you look at the characteristics of the assets most of them 73 percent are concentrated in the metropolitan area for residential that's about 60 percent concentrated so across the board this is what internally we are confident about our asset quality unlike what the market sees us but of course the market will take precedence over our internal situation so we're remaining very cautious as for the major creditor group lenders group I think operation is quite effective there about 40 different sites and about 36 billion 360 billion one has been incurred and all the assets that have gone to the lenders group and some of them are in delinquent state and some of them may go delinquent going forward but we'll have to be cautious as to how to distinguish between the two so of course a lot of interest is focused on real estate so we're doing this on a weekly basis we try to monitor the development on a weekly basis for the pf we also do monthly review for the assets we also try to readjust our soundness as well and in the second half of the year we'll do full enumeration a survey and we have also come up with the response strategies by each company so for the time being For the real estate business, this is where everyone is interested in, and we're not exactly sure. We can't say whether it's going to get better or it's going to become worse, but we'll just have to remain vigilant. Second question is related to a person for credit losses. 50 BP until 3Q, and during the 4, that's about 40 BP that we have accumulated. As for the 4Q prediction, 89 to 89, excuse me, 48 to 49 BP is being planned. As for additional provisioning for the proliferative state, yes, will have to be reviewed on a case-by-case basis, and we will have to add more provision for that across the board on a year-to-year basis. probably in the later 40 bp but it may go up as high as 50 bp as for next year we have recurring provision and additional provisioning as for additional provisioning to EAD changes there could be additional provisioning required and of course individual overlay and BTF may be required but starting last year the year before and next year we really don't have much room for additional provisioning so that is really not going to be that sizable but in terms of the recurring provisioning It's 30 feet now. As was mentioned by CRO, it's self-lending as possible for the listing. And the loan loss provision or credit loss ratio is going to decrease next year. For the dividend, quarterly dividend this year as well as next year, that is a regular practice. That's part of our policy to do a quarterly dividend. So quarterly dividend policy is going to be maintained. Thank you.

Thank you very much for the response. And now let us wait for further questions. If you have any questions, then please use the raise hand function on the Zoom. From JP Morgan, I believe that she has a follow-up question, so please go ahead. Yes, thank you. So thank you very much for the response. So what I had asked about was also whether for next year the share buyback and cancellation, will that also occur on a quarterly basis? And I believe that I perhaps have phrased my question wrong, asking only about the dividend, but then also about the share buyback and cancellation. Yes, then let me directly answer the question. So yes, dividend on a quarterly basis and then also this year, buyback and cancellation, we have also tried that this time. Now, the overall shareholder return policy remains unchanged from the previous guidance. And then now for next year, whether it will also take place on a quarterly basis or not, that is also up to the BOD decision as well. So with the overall direction, it remains unchanged. But then now regarding this year, buyback and cancellation, I would have to come back to you after we make the decisions at the BOD. Thank you. Thank you. We will take the next question.

Thank you for the opportunity. I wanted to understand how the retail business credit scores are being used in our risk management practices. So what, you know, how the internal scorecards are used, what kind of data do we use? And whether alternate credit scores that with new technology like machine learning and AI, are they replacing bureau data that you're using? How is this risk management at the time of underwriting evolving from a credit risk perspective?

Thank you very much for your question.

So please wait for a while as we prepare the response. Yes, the CRO will take your question. Yes, this is the CRO, Bang Dong Won. So I see that it's quite a technical question. So now, yes, for the retail loan, then we have the rating agency. So we don't use the outside system. So then now in our case for the BIS ratio, when we calculate the BIS ratio, then we use the internal rating method. So then now we are using this with approval from the FSC. So yes, this is the internal model. And then there's also what we call the alternative model. So in a top deregulated model, then there's also what we use for our business purpose, and that is the alternative model. Now for this alternative model, then what you have mentioned, so for example, machine learning and other new technologies. So yes, we are obviously using them. Now for the data, then we try to use as much data as possible from both inside and outside to input them into the model, to run the model. So now let me sum up. We have the regulated model, then the alternative model. Regulated model has been approved by the FSE. It is in usage. Then for the alternative model, this is for our internal usage, and we are also applying machine learning technologies as well.

Thank you for the response. We don't have any questions in the queue, so we'll try to wait a little longer.

Yes, I'm aware of the time.

And yes, I didn't click 2023 Q3 earnings presentation. So we would like to thank the participants once again for earnings presentation. Our presentation materials will be posted on homepage as well as SFG IR YouTube channel. We ask for continued interest. And we will see you again at the next quarter. Thank you very much.